I agree with admiral Kelso. He was chief of naval operations in the 1990s.. when asked what the Russian experience would be against the United States Navy he described it as Brief and exciting
@@specag31 Russians do not have anti-ship missiles which couldn't be shut down by existing US capabilities. Their best is SS-N-26 which has range of 300 km and most of it it goes high altitude which makes it an excellent target.
'Kiev in three days' was the beginning of a series of military humiliations for Russia. Nagorno-Karabakh was another. Syria is just another entry in what's becoming a long list.
We're watching Russia turn itself into a weak middle power shell of its former self. This is the prelude to the Trump negotiations on Ukraine, where Trump will be seen as the daddy and Putin as a naughty little boy. No Russian leader can survive that image and continue the strong man facade.
@fernandovalenzuela6260 SF with USAF took down Afghanistan in a matter of weeks in late 2001. US was in Bagdhad in days in 2003, Saddam captured on Dec 13, 2003. Putin in Ukraine? It's almost 3 years and he has nothing to show for it besides huge attrition of men, weapons, and equipment, economy in the out house.
As Peter described how Russian adventures in Africa are now cut off, all I could hear in my head was Nelson from the Simpsons pointing at the Russians and laughing. “Haw Haw!”
Before you started talking I recognized the backdrop landscape of my home country! So pleased you are there, I hope that you enjoy the scenery and culture. A great update as ever
@forenamesurname1183 You've got a lot of history to catch up on but basically Egyptians spent decades trying to kick all the Jews out of Israel and kept losing territory instead. In the late 70s Egypt essentially admitted defeat; agreed recognize Israel in exchange for Israel giving back most of the land.
1956 Suez Crisis, War of Attrition, Yom Kippur, Lebanon Wars. Genuinely the first three are key to this convo. Wikipedia should have good cursory information on this if you read about Israeli history
@forenamesurname1183 It was a preemptive attack for Israel to annex the land. No one was ready to fight. They got the intel knowing this. No innocent jews were harmed. They were willing to keep the peace, but is Israel is very desperate.
This is truly terrible for Russia. Many have been wondering how Russia has been able to remain relatively unaffected by the war in Ukraine. Well, here it is. At a minimum, Russia's global influence has been permanently reduced to the lowest level since before the Russian Empire. Russia needs Syria to serve as its own personal staging area for any operations it wants to conduct in the Middle East or Africa, and the fall of Russia's puppet in Assad will at the very least make Russia's ability to manage operations in Africa significantly more difficult. Russia's dream of dominating Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and Asia are dead. Hell, Russia can't even dominate in war torn Syria or Ukraine. Russia is currently taking thousands of casualties every single day just to conquer a few meters of ruined fields. In doing so, Russia has become so weak and spread so thinly that they were forced to withdraw troops in Syria, which led to it's collapse. Nobody in their right mind would trade a puppet state and several military bases in the Middle East and influence in Africa for just a sliver of completely decimated Ukrainian territory which, even if Russia does manage to keep, will cost billions of dollars more to occupy and rebuild for absolutely no return. This is just one of many examples of increasing Russian weakness as a result of their invasion, and more are yet to come. Russia is in big trouble long term.
I agree with this take. putin is the wealthiest man in the world (by monetary standards) having taken untold billions for his own personal use from the russian people. he already has everything one can have (including Robert Kraft's Superbowl ring) and is a kleptomaniac- and in private or plain view just takes things he wants. he no longer wants "things"- he wants something money can't buy- respect, relevance and historical significance. he wants to be remembered as a "great" man in russian history, and since the russian culture only teaches the history they want their people to believe- this may appear true in russia- but the rest of the world will remember putin as the monster that he is.
_"Many have been wondering how Russia has been able to remain relatively unaffected by the war in Ukraine."_ Also, clever economic policies. Credit where credit is due. IE, typical bank stuff like managing interest rates; trading internationally in gold in place of US dollars; generous pays for military industrial jobs, and other industries having to increase their pays to remain competitive in job market; as well as keeping goods relatively cheap and stable in price (I can't remember the details on how, I guess I need to pay attention better, but the latter two basically keep your average Russian content). Money & Macro and William Spaniel are good sources on this stuff.
"completely decimated Ukrainian territory which, even if Russia does manage to keep, will cost billions of dollars more to occupy and rebuild for absolutely no return." Well written post, but I would respectfully disagree with your phrase "absolutely no return". Eastern Ukraine is rich with natural resources and fertile farm land. If (and that's a big "if") the Russians can manage to keep the currently occupied Ukrainian territories, they potentially could reap a large return from profits from these territories. Of course they would have to find someone to buy these resources once they are obtained, and with their reputation around the world dwindling, and ever increasing sanctions, that would severely limit their options of potential buyers and for profiting from these resources. Thoughts? Thanks for posting... great points.
@@mpc72367 The natural resources and farmland aren't strong indicators of profit potential. So much infrastructure is going to need to be built on the territory that it will be at least a decade before profits can be gained, and that assumes all sanctions are removed tomorrow. In my opinion, the kidnapped civilians (especially the children) are the only real profit, given the country's demographics. Had Russia been able to create a land bridge to Transnistria, that would at least give them some decent benefits from a tactical perspective... but that's absolutely not liable to happen this century at the current rate.
The Russians also wanted to create a flow of refugees into Europe to support the arguments of the far right. The main reason they were involved in Syria. If the rebels let the russians leave without whipping their ass, it’ll be a crime. They contributed to soooo much Syrian suffering.
@@devalapar7878 The leading rebels currently only want to fight the other factions of rebels of Syria to gain overall control, they are not interested in Russia anymore who are a threat to them as long as they remain in the country as when the Russian Ukraine war is over Russia could continue meddling in Syria afterwards if they was allowed to stay, they are not trusted!?!
Though am now a Patreon subsctriber (aided the charity), still have only watched the YT version (though may dabble soon). Getting the analysis 'later' does not take away from better understanding of the region. "In the day" Time, Newsweek, etc. were more than a week behind by the time they published and mag go to your mailbox and then when I/you opened it and started reading it. So --- Thank You!
thanks to Peter for pointing out what should be obvious but hasn't been mentioned AT ALL in the mainstream media: the lines of communication (military supply lines) to Africa have been CUT. Such a huge thing. thanks Peter.
Peter, you forgot the possibility of sailing their naval forces via the Suez Canal, Red Sea, Indian Ocean, Straits of Malacca, South China Sea, East Cinna Sea, and on to Vladivostok... It's way longer, but there are plenty of places that would allow them to make port calls...which include Houthi Yemen, Iran, India, Vietnam, China, and/or North Korea.
The historical introduction about Syria was almost completely wrong! Syria was never a leftover no man land that locals had prolonged civil war over power. After the fall of the Ottoman empire, France and Britain divided the region between them. Both Syria and Lebanon were part of the French mandate. They wanted to divided that mandate into 4 separate countries. Lebanon, Alawait Mount, Druze Mount, and the rest of Syria a Sunni state. The Syrians rejected that. Even the Druze and Alawaits didn't want to leave the greater Syria and have their own states. There was the Great Syrian revolution against the French from 1925 to 27. The French left in 1947. Syria never had a civil war. But it did have an unstable government affected by multiple military coups. Untill the Assad came to power in 1970. Syria is one of the oldest inhabited areas in the Middle East. Damascus is the oldest continuously inhabited capital in the world. Aleppo has the oldest citadel and roofed market in the world. Some of the oldest if not the oldest known human colonies and evidence of agricultural activities were found in Syria.
Actually, the Druze didn't want anything to do with Syria. They were forced against their will. See the Great Syrian Revolt, en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Syrian_Revolt
The Russians trying to get to Murmansk in their barely seaworthy ships would be like the literal voyage of the damned the 2nd Pacific Squadron undertook trying to get all the way from St. Petersburg to Port Arthur in 1905, only to be sunk by the Japanese during the Battle of Tsushima.
The seaworthy ships travelled to syria but suddenly became unable to be sea worthy after reaching there ? The wooden ships can travel world but not the metal, heres nobel prize for discovery
@@meteorknight999 those "seaworthy" ships got to Syria via the canal through Turkey, coming from the black sea (a large salt water lake, not open ocean). But they now can't get back home into the Black Sea. Turkey wont let Russian ships through their canals. They now have to travel out around all of Europe to get to the Baltic Sea, in ships not designed for open ocean travel. But first, they need to wait for resupply ships coming the other way, because they left in a hurry and don't have enough fuel of food for the journey. LOL
Kia ora, bro. Isn't about time you officially became a Kiwi?? I knew immediately from the scenery that you were in NZ. Hope you enjoy your (chilly) vacation!! Hope you've got a nice warm duvet on your bed.
Putin being allowed back in Syria in 2015 (and thus falsely appearing as 'decisive and strong') was entirely due to the ineptitude of the US administration at the time. As it turned out, Obama was just as bad for the US foreign policy as Merkel was for Germany's and EU's - a lot of pompous and fiery speeches but no 'cojones'.
Remember the US public sentiment at the time was weary of the forever war in Afghanistan and the isis mess in Iraq/Syria. There was no appetite in the US for further entanglement in the middle east. We let the locals fight it out amongst themselves, and didn't much care if Russia got involved. As it turned out, we were right, and Russia is about to lose all they invested in Syria and perhaps Africa.
syria has risen and fallen that many times that I have little hope that the current regime will be there in 10 years. They have been a nation in constant infighting for the last 100 years in some form or the other. If Peters right and the Turks had a hand in this, my expectation that in a few months they will be assisting a different faction and it all goes full circle again. The Turks do not want that region to be cohesive under a single leader for very long because a strong cohesive Middle East is a threat to their hegemony and they have waited this long for Russia to become weak and the US to take a back seat on world affairs and protect their own borders for a change
The Russians are using 2 Antonov An-124's to do the airlifting. Ironically Ukrainian aircraft. For naval port they probably go to Tubruk Lybia. The warlord there is an ally. But it's good, all partners see Russia is failing in their obligations and promises.
Even if Russia does use ports like that, they are certainly less secure than Syrian bases under Assad have been for them. Russian ability to influence the Middle East and Africa has taken a massive hit, and Russia's influence will only continue to shrink.
Pete my man. The real reason the Soviets backed the Syrians had to do more this connecting military bases in Syria, Egypt and Libya to put pressure on NATO naval forces in the Mediterranean. Yes, the Russian wanted to put pressure Israel to help support their Arab allies, not because the US and Israel were buddies, but the real deep down inside reason was to create another front for NATO to have to contend with that would allow Warsaw Pact countries like Romania, Bulgaria, etc. unfettered access to NATO's soft under belly (Italy et al). Libya and Egypt could put enough pressure on NATO to force them to commit valuable resources (the 6th Fleet and the British Med Sqd.) to the defense as opposed to being available for offensive actions against Warsaw Pact members aforementioned. Tartus in Syria also threatened the Aegean Sea, Dardanelles Straits and Turkey from its rear.
@@SA2004YG Afghanistan fell because the US didn't want to be there to prop it up anymore. Syria fell because Russia is too weak to hold it. Russia wanted desperately to hold onto Syria, as Syria is an essential part of Russia's African operations, which result in large amounts of gold and precious materials being syphoned back to Russia. Without Syria, Russia has no real foothold in the region. Russia thought that they could get away with sneaking its forces out of Syria to fight in Ukraine, but it turns out that they were too weak to do both. Now, Russia's investments in Africa will dry up, as its influence is pushed back to its own borders.
Well, under the condition the Danes and Swedes dont block the Kattegat strait which is likely to happen considering Russia's recent sabotage of deep sea cables in the Baltic Sea.
@@Lumpy_PeterMy money is on Russia permanently anchoring the fleet in Lybia with a skeleton crew. Even if they tried hugging the African coast for the entire trip west, once the fleet cleared Gibraltar and turned north, they could not dock in ANY port without being boarded and seized. It's the second half of that run thats the actual problem. It's mid December right now, and that whole trip would take place in the northern hemisphere. Catching a decent strength winter storm while heading north would be bad. If they got caught in a mid-winter monster while sailing through the North Sea... the entire fleet would be at a very high risk of either directly sinking or being permanently crippled.
@@BillDoughzer69Peter is a gay globalist shill. Not a marine. For example, he didn't even mention the leader of all this Syrian nightmare is a Al Nusra member who blew up Americans in the Iraq war, because he doesn't care.
There`s a channel called "Money and Macro" that`s sponsored by the Economist. It shows official data and stats about the things Zeihan is talking about. He`s wrong or over the top 80% of the time. For example he`s been predicting that China will collapse in the next 10 years for 15 years now. I`ve seen articles from 2010 where he still talks about the same stuff.
The Russians also practiced levelling cities and civillians with artillery in Chechnya. They taught the Serbs how to do it during the civil war in Ex-Yugoslavia. It's the only way they know how to conduct warfare, it seems.
Aotearoa is the traditionally name of the North Island only, South Island tribes never used the term. It was a European that suggest Maori use " Aotearoa" as a name for NZ and it stuck, however it was never actually agreed to by the tribes FYI.
Yeah, the kremlin is probably offering everything they can and cant to the new regime in order to keep the air and naval bases. And the fact that Israel is bombing Syria day and night for a week pushes the new regime away from the west. Its highly lilkely they make a deal with russia to keep their bases
EU said it will only lift sanctions if the Russians are expelled. I think HTS cares more about lifting sanctions to rebuilt the country than they do about anything the Russians might offer.
I don't know how the UA-cam algorithm got this on my feed, but man, am I glad it did! What a fiasco for the Russian plans. Got my popcorn out and watching.
Libya is unstable and the side that is friendly to Russia is controlled by Haftar, who has shown he changes sides as he pleases. So that is an option but not a great one.
The Turks controlled the whole Middle East for 500 years, their occupation of the area cut off the trade routes from Yemen to Palestine that cut off the spice trade to Europe, it drove the Europeans to find another way to get the spices from Indonesia, thus the Portuguese maritime successes going around Africa and Columbus discovering the New World. The Turks knew how to handle the Arabs, didn't care about "human rights", chopped off heads. The Turks will return the minute they are able, once the world no longer cares about Middle East oil they will take the whole region back and sharpen their swords, you can bet on it.
@@Cybercop7156 Yeah, but you'd better be a good judge of sources or you're screwed. I guess that's true for any news/education source, but any serious institution will have proper checks to ensure quality. Not youtube, so you're on your own. Unless you count algorithms, and I guess _technically_ algorithms can be preferenced towards factual quality, but I think we've all come to know better on here :o) So, I'd argue take everything you watch on youtube with a relatively big grain of salt and be prepared to have a wrong or warped perspective on w/e you think you just learned. That's what 'free' and 'visual' get you, unfortunately.
Part of me does wonder why the Russians would not have the air lift capacity when they were also able to get their military equipment into Syria before this coup started. Anyone who would have the answer?
If I remember well, in times of peace the Turks customarily allowed passage through the Dardanelles to military units, the exception being nuclear-powered vessels that were a big no-no. In fact, a number of amphibious ships (3 or 6? My memory is eeak) were detached from the North Fleet to the Black Sea a few weeks before the end of 2021, and they arrived to destination. In time of war, it was everybody's understanding that Turkey would closes the passage to any and all military ships, transports included. (May even be mandated to do so by the Montreux Convention, I am not sure - for sure, they are blocking the passage now.) Not to mention, Sebastopol is not the safe harbour that it used to be. Do, back in the day they could move stuff to Sirya with little fuss. Today, not so much.
They probably shipped their equipment to Syria bit by bit. Ships can carry much more stuff than airplanes can. Even the US with the best logistics couldn't airlift all our stuff out of Afghanistan
That was before they got bogged down in Ukraine and were still allowed to sail through the Bosphorus and Dardanelles, and back then they weren´t in such a hurry to get the stuff moving as they might be in now, unless of course they can strike a deal with the new Syrian government to keep at least some kind of foothold in Syria. Certainly they can fly out their stuff but it will take time as they don´t have as many transport planes as the US, getting the ships back home will be the harder part, should they have to withdraw.
0:05 Holly Hut in Egmont National Park, NZ.... It's a great place to stay and explore the surrounding area with the Ahukawakawa Swamp and Bells Falls. popular trail for backpacking, birding, and camping, but you can still enjoy some solitude during quieter times of day. The best times to visit this trail are October through April. You'll need to leave pups at home - dogs aren't allowed on this trail. Bookings and fees are required to stay at Holly Hut. near Inglewood, Taranaki, North Island, New Zealand, Oceania , South Pacific, Camping is also possible (first come, first served).
Turkey has everything to do with the timing of this revolution. They kept their Islamist allies protected in the Syrian province of Idlib that they occupy, waiting for the right time to intervene. And they equipped and armed their Sunni ´Syrian National Army’ proxy along the border to keep the Syrian Kurds in check. Erdogan tried but failed to topple Assad back in 2014/2015, courtesy of the Russians. He then tried to negotiate with him return the return of the 4 million Syrian refugees in Turkey to no avail. Erdogan concluded that the best way to ensure their return is toppling the Assad regime. In addition, Turkey fears a dislocation of Syria and subsequent emergence of a Kurdish independent entity south of its border that would inevitably link up with its Kurdish counterparts in Turkey, something Erdogan sees as the greatest threat to Turkey’s territorial integrity. Turkey’s now in control in Syria. Nothing definitive can happen there going forward if Turkey opposes it.
😆 - the difference is that the Greek army could fight. I get the impression that the Russians aren't doing that, just trying to get the heck out of there.
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I've been asking the same question about Russia. Russia has historically been made up of a bunch of diverse minority groups, but every single time a conflict breaks out, the Russian ethnic majority rounds them up and sends them to the frontlines to die. It's probably due to education. Well educated regions with lots of diversity that blends together well are much more successful than places where an uneducated ethnic majority ravages ethnic minorities for their own short term gain, rather than overcoming differences to work together and better themselves in the long term.
You're saying it's crazy that after telling us he was putting everything on Patreon but still giving it away for free here that he went ahead and did it and now the videos are a week older? That doesn't seem crazy to me at all. Crazy would be someone thinking that that meant they could criticise Peter for giving us this free analysis rather than just paying like everyone else did.
Man I just can’t look at Peter the same after that election prediction. He was so wrong. 😂 I’ll keep watching but I am going to need to see at least one of his prediction come true to see him in the right way again. Man he was dead dead wrong
It’s different when people are looking to you for information that’s us important. Maybe I am making too much of a big deal. I find it funny that’s all. I probably should go watch his explanation video.
Week old videos unfortunately means you’re losing relevance. Also your comments on UK food didn’t help. Shame, but true. You’re a very talented orator.
Another reason the Russians were pro Syria is that Syria allowed the Russia to use their Mediterranean port, thus enabling extended Russian maritime operations in the Mediterranean.
What is the point in this report? It’s a week out of date and rather pathetic as a result. I’m afraid that your grasping for even more revenue has finally ruined this channel for me. Sadly unsubscribing…..
It offers an objective review of Peter's assessment of the event at the time. Things he didn't anticipate like the Turks offering Russia safe passage will have happened, and perhaps cast doubts on his other overly optimistic takes.
Latakia and Tartus are irreplaceable as Military assets. This leaves Kaliningrad, Vladivostok, and Novorossiysk as the remaining Winter Ports for surface ships available to the Russian Navy. This is dire for Russian power projection aspirations. Try to think of a port where the Russian Navy can `hang out´ until Spring. Kaliningrad is a long ride, the Sea of Marmara is closed to warships. This eliminates the Black Sea Port of Novorossiysk.
A couple of points. They don't have to sail to Murmansk. There's also Kaliningrad and St Petersburg. The Russians could move some assets from Syria to Tobruk in Libya. This would not be an ideal solution because it would put them closer to NATO bases, making them easier to track. The loss of Hmeimim airbase would seriously hinder Russian activities in Africa because that was about as far as their cargo planes could fly from Russian territory without refuelling. So the Russians would have to find somewhere else to refuel their military aircraft flying to and from Africa and that could mean they do not always fly through "friendly skies". Tartus is Russian navy's only repair and maintenance port in the Mediterranean and their only deep-water port capable of hosting submarines. Russia has already sent vessels from the Northern Fleet to pick up equipment from Tartus but it will be weeks before they get there and several more weeks to make the return journey. Anything they leave behind will probably be destroyed by Israeli airstrikes "to prevent it falling into the hands of terrorists and later being used to attack Israel". If it is not possible for Russia to keep its bases at Hmeimim/Latakia and Tartus they could try to expand their facilities in Tobruk. This would still take years to complete and assumes the Kremlin-backed regime of Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar endures in that part of Libya. Given the strategic importance of its bases in western Syria you may be forgiven for thinking the Russians may have made more of an effort to support Bashar al-Assad's regime in its hour of need. Perhaps the Russians felt his regime was a "lost cause" and that they could do a deal with the next Syrian government. There are historical examples of countries maintaining enclaves in ostensibly hostile territory; Gibraltar, Guantanamo Bay, and Kaliningrad spring to mind.
He didn't mention Libya as a possible russian port of resupply for Africa. They need to go from pro russia to anti russia before we see an unraveling of russian influence in africa. This will make it the focus of both nato and russsian diplomacy.
I agree with admiral Kelso. He was chief of naval operations in the 1990s.. when asked what the Russian experience would be against the United States Navy he described it as
Brief and exciting
Only if without nukes...
Their navy is to protect their flanks and sink merchant ships not to project power. So they wouldn't engage in a battle on the open seas.
Only without hyperdonic unstoppable missiles. "Aircraftcarrier," NAVPOOGRU speak for Big Foooked Target."
@@specag31😂 unstoppable missiles LOL
@@specag31 Russians do not have anti-ship missiles which couldn't be shut down by existing US capabilities. Their best is SS-N-26 which has range of 300 km and most of it it goes high altitude which makes it an excellent target.
'Kiev in three days' was the beginning of a series of military humiliations for Russia. Nagorno-Karabakh was another. Syria is just another entry in what's becoming a long list.
We're watching Russia turn itself into a weak middle power shell of its former self. This is the prelude to the Trump negotiations on Ukraine, where Trump will be seen as the daddy and Putin as a naughty little boy. No Russian leader can survive that image and continue the strong man facade.
Reminds me of Afghanistan, Iraq, and Vietnam...
hmm Russia wasn't fighting there (Nagorno-Karabakh ). What is the logic in such a statement
@fernandovalenzuela6260 SF with USAF took down Afghanistan in a matter of weeks in late 2001. US was in Bagdhad in days in 2003, Saddam captured on Dec 13, 2003. Putin in Ukraine? It's almost 3 years and he has nothing to show for it besides huge attrition of men, weapons, and equipment, economy in the out house.
@@LRRPFco52 Lost $trillions, 10 years in Iraq and Afghanistan (Tali still there) and got no oil, well done i guess?
As Peter described how Russian adventures in Africa are now cut off, all I could hear in my head was Nelson from the Simpsons pointing at the Russians and laughing. “Haw Haw!”
Ambushed Wagners... iykyk
Before you started talking I recognized the backdrop landscape of my home country! So pleased you are there, I hope that you enjoy the scenery and culture. A great update as ever
hey ! glad to have you over here in NZ again :) enjoy your trip !
Trip? This is Peters secret doomsday bunker!
“Egypt picked a fight, didn’t win it” had me dying.
i didnt get it
@forenamesurname1183 You've got a lot of history to catch up on but basically Egyptians spent decades trying to kick all the Jews out of Israel and kept losing territory instead. In the late 70s Egypt essentially admitted defeat; agreed recognize Israel in exchange for Israel giving back most of the land.
1956 Suez Crisis, War of Attrition, Yom Kippur, Lebanon Wars.
Genuinely the first three are key to this convo. Wikipedia should have good cursory information on this if you read about Israeli history
@@baumhauserthat wasn’t even a fight what Hamas is doing now is war of attrition and Isreal can’t win it only begs USA to help lol
@forenamesurname1183
It was a preemptive attack for Israel to annex the land. No one was ready to fight. They got the intel knowing this. No innocent jews were harmed. They were willing to keep the peace, but is Israel is very desperate.
I appreciate the video release date banner, thank you.
same here
Peter zeihan the new history channel
At least the local newspapers can reprint stories from 50, 75, 100 years ago as nothing changes in the middle east
As Saudis diversify away from oil
And to tourism, pack your bags your going to the middle east ! Haha 😂
@@tvismyonlyfriend The new Silicon Valley! Eco-friendly cities! The Islamic world's glory days are finally arriving! 🤣🤣
They should rename it the 'Muddle' East
This is truly terrible for Russia. Many have been wondering how Russia has been able to remain relatively unaffected by the war in Ukraine. Well, here it is. At a minimum, Russia's global influence has been permanently reduced to the lowest level since before the Russian Empire. Russia needs Syria to serve as its own personal staging area for any operations it wants to conduct in the Middle East or Africa, and the fall of Russia's puppet in Assad will at the very least make Russia's ability to manage operations in Africa significantly more difficult.
Russia's dream of dominating Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and Asia are dead. Hell, Russia can't even dominate in war torn Syria or Ukraine. Russia is currently taking thousands of casualties every single day just to conquer a few meters of ruined fields. In doing so, Russia has become so weak and spread so thinly that they were forced to withdraw troops in Syria, which led to it's collapse. Nobody in their right mind would trade a puppet state and several military bases in the Middle East and influence in Africa for just a sliver of completely decimated Ukrainian territory which, even if Russia does manage to keep, will cost billions of dollars more to occupy and rebuild for absolutely no return.
This is just one of many examples of increasing Russian weakness as a result of their invasion, and more are yet to come. Russia is in big trouble long term.
I agree with this take. putin is the wealthiest man in the world (by monetary standards) having taken untold billions for his own personal use from the russian people. he already has everything one can have (including Robert Kraft's Superbowl ring) and is a kleptomaniac- and in private or plain view just takes things he wants. he no longer wants "things"- he wants something money can't buy- respect, relevance and historical significance. he wants to be remembered as a "great" man in russian history, and since the russian culture only teaches the history they want their people to believe- this may appear true in russia- but the rest of the world will remember putin as the monster that he is.
_"Many have been wondering how Russia has been able to remain relatively unaffected by the war in Ukraine."_
Also, clever economic policies. Credit where credit is due. IE, typical bank stuff like managing interest rates; trading internationally in gold in place of US dollars; generous pays for military industrial jobs, and other industries having to increase their pays to remain competitive in job market; as well as keeping goods relatively cheap and stable in price (I can't remember the details on how, I guess I need to pay attention better, but the latter two basically keep your average Russian content). Money & Macro and William Spaniel are good sources on this stuff.
Does Russia get more dangerous as it declines further?
"completely decimated Ukrainian territory which, even if Russia does manage to keep, will cost billions of dollars more to occupy and rebuild for absolutely no return." Well written post, but I would respectfully disagree with your phrase "absolutely no return". Eastern Ukraine is rich with natural resources and fertile farm land. If (and that's a big "if") the Russians can manage to keep the currently occupied Ukrainian territories, they potentially could reap a large return from profits from these territories. Of course they would have to find someone to buy these resources once they are obtained, and with their reputation around the world dwindling, and ever increasing sanctions, that would severely limit their options of potential buyers and for profiting from these resources. Thoughts? Thanks for posting... great points.
@@mpc72367 The natural resources and farmland aren't strong indicators of profit potential. So much infrastructure is going to need to be built on the territory that it will be at least a decade before profits can be gained, and that assumes all sanctions are removed tomorrow. In my opinion, the kidnapped civilians (especially the children) are the only real profit, given the country's demographics. Had Russia been able to create a land bridge to Transnistria, that would at least give them some decent benefits from a tactical perspective... but that's absolutely not liable to happen this century at the current rate.
The Russians also wanted to create a flow of refugees into Europe to support the arguments of the far right. The main reason they were involved in Syria. If the rebels let the russians leave without whipping their ass, it’ll be a crime. They contributed to soooo much Syrian suffering.
The current rebels are pragmatic and don't want to anger Russia. Russians are leaving, but none of the rebels is shooting at them.
I’d say the biggest influence is Israeli wanted to invade and expand their territory.
@@devalapar7878 The leading rebels currently only want to fight the other factions of rebels of Syria to gain overall control, they are not interested in Russia anymore who are a threat to them as long as they remain in the country as when the Russian Ukraine war is over Russia could continue meddling in Syria afterwards if they was allowed to stay, they are not trusted!?!
so rebels should fight them and create another refugee crisis ? Just say yiu want refugee crisis in a civil war that RU kept constantly stopping
How did the Russian government predict Syrian refugees would go to European countries?
NICE TO SEE YOU BACK, PETER.
One needs a vacation from making so many wrong claims.
Lots of info I didn't know before. Thank you.
Though am now a Patreon subsctriber (aided the charity), still have only watched the YT version (though may dabble soon). Getting the analysis 'later' does not take away from better understanding of the region. "In the day" Time, Newsweek, etc. were more than a week behind by the time they published and mag go to your mailbox and then when I/you opened it and started reading it. So --- Thank You!
Thanks!
thanks to Peter for pointing out what should be obvious but hasn't been mentioned AT ALL in the mainstream media: the lines of communication (military supply lines) to Africa have been CUT. Such a huge thing. thanks Peter.
I wonder why he doesn't mention Russia relocating African operations to Libya?
Peter, you forgot the possibility of sailing their naval forces via the Suez Canal, Red Sea, Indian Ocean, Straits of Malacca, South China Sea, East Cinna Sea, and on to Vladivostok... It's way longer, but there are plenty of places that would allow them to make port calls...which include Houthi Yemen, Iran, India, Vietnam, China, and/or North Korea.
Taking the long way around. But if they have the friendly ports it could work.
Don't listen to this guy, he ain't playing chess like the rissuans BEWARE CHINA
"Russian ships suck." Come on Zeihan, that's spreading pro Russian propaganda. Giving them way too much credit!
are you ok?
@@GSicKz i don't know how he is
@@GSicKz Much better than Russia's navy, that's for sure!
@@quinnjackson9252 they still have a navy at this point? Where? 😂
The evidence is that they're falling apart on the ocean so... Maybe you should stop sewing Russian propaganda
Looking forward to your backpacking kit breakdown!
Great news, thanks Peter.
Welcome back to New Zealand ❤
Learned a lot on this one.
I thought I recognised you in New Plymouth last week! I hope you had a good hike up the maunga.
I happened to see him too and say “Hi”
Tartarus is the lowest level of hell where Jim Jones serves Kool aid now a days.
It was a refreshment
Dipset Jim Jones? Im confused 😂
Edited. If crow flocking 900 people doesn't get you there I don't know what will. Peter said Tartarus.
Thanks for your great work. Happy Holidays!
The historical introduction about Syria was almost completely wrong!
Syria was never a leftover no man land that locals had prolonged civil war over power. After the fall of the Ottoman empire, France and Britain divided the region between them. Both Syria and Lebanon were part of the French mandate. They wanted to divided that mandate into 4 separate countries. Lebanon, Alawait Mount, Druze Mount, and the rest of Syria a Sunni state. The Syrians rejected that. Even the Druze and Alawaits didn't want to leave the greater Syria and have their own states. There was the Great Syrian revolution against the French from 1925 to 27. The French left in 1947. Syria never had a civil war. But it did have an unstable government affected by multiple military coups. Untill the Assad came to power in 1970.
Syria is one of the oldest inhabited areas in the Middle East. Damascus is the oldest continuously inhabited capital in the world. Aleppo has the oldest citadel and roofed market in the world. Some of the oldest if not the oldest known human colonies and evidence of agricultural activities were found in Syria.
Typical of Peter, over simplifying everything, only so m much time in a video I suppose to get tit right.
He was talking about the strategic value of the land itself, he wasn't talking about cultures at all.
Actually, the Druze didn't want anything to do with Syria. They were forced against their will. See the Great Syrian Revolt, en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Syrian_Revolt
@@R3GARnatorit has lot of oils and gas that why American bases are there
ppl been living there since farming started, but the country wasn't invented till very recently
NZ hosts some of the most beautiful places on the planet, I know you'll love it! Haere Mai Peter! I know I will enjoy the backdrops for your videos.
The Russians trying to get to Murmansk in their barely seaworthy ships would be like the literal voyage of the damned the 2nd Pacific Squadron undertook trying to get all the way from St. Petersburg to Port Arthur in 1905, only to be sunk by the Japanese during the Battle of Tsushima.
Yes it's a good example of Russian military incompetence.
The seaworthy ships travelled to syria but suddenly became unable to be sea worthy after reaching there ? The wooden ships can travel world but not the metal, heres nobel prize for discovery
@@meteorknight999 those "seaworthy" ships got to Syria via the canal through Turkey, coming from the black sea (a large salt water lake, not open ocean). But they now can't get back home into the Black Sea. Turkey wont let Russian ships through their canals. They now have to travel out around all of Europe to get to the Baltic Sea, in ships not designed for open ocean travel. But first, they need to wait for resupply ships coming the other way, because they left in a hurry and don't have enough fuel of food for the journey. LOL
Welcome to New Zealand Pete.
A week later now and nobody is making the Russians leave.
It seems like they bought time to pack things up. I don't think they have a future there after all what they did to the Syrian people.
Kia ora, bro. Isn't about time you officially became a Kiwi?? I knew immediately from the scenery that you were in NZ. Hope you enjoy your (chilly) vacation!! Hope you've got a nice warm duvet on your bed.
Good, finally a prediction in a reasonable timeframe to check out, let's see how it plays out.
Putin being allowed back in Syria in 2015 (and thus falsely appearing as 'decisive and strong') was entirely due to the ineptitude of the US administration at the time. As it turned out, Obama was just as bad for the US foreign policy as Merkel was for Germany's and EU's - a lot of pompous and fiery speeches but no 'cojones'.
Remember the US public sentiment at the time was weary of the forever war in Afghanistan and the isis mess in Iraq/Syria. There was no appetite in the US for further entanglement in the middle east. We let the locals fight it out amongst themselves, and didn't much care if Russia got involved. As it turned out, we were right, and Russia is about to lose all they invested in Syria and perhaps Africa.
Obama was laying the trap that just sprang shut. Genius!
@@dcc70 Well, the smart people were telling you what Putin actually was and represented in 2004
nevermind 2014 or 2022 but no one listened.
On the way up (US ascendency last century) it's fairly easy to maintain that power, once it starts to plateau that where things go wrong (look at GB)
@nkr1159 ok and than what? Start a war or sanction him from the get go? What exactly did you want to happen
I hope and pray that Syria can have a good future with a Good government and Good people!
syria has risen and fallen that many times that I have little hope that the current regime will be there in 10 years. They have been a nation in constant infighting for the last 100 years in some form or the other. If Peters right and the Turks had a hand in this, my expectation that in a few months they will be assisting a different faction and it all goes full circle again. The Turks do not want that region to be cohesive under a single leader for very long because a strong cohesive Middle East is a threat to their hegemony and they have waited this long for Russia to become weak and the US to take a back seat on world affairs and protect their own borders for a change
Mouth
Mene, mene, tekel, upashim.
First sign..will- be if they make woman into medieval
Look at their geography man, there is little hope for stability.
That makes me feel all warm and fuzzy thanks Peter.
The Russians are using 2 Antonov An-124's to do the airlifting. Ironically Ukrainian aircraft.
For naval port they probably go to Tubruk Lybia. The warlord there is an ally.
But it's good, all partners see Russia is failing in their obligations and promises.
Even if Russia does use ports like that, they are certainly less secure than Syrian bases under Assad have been for them. Russian ability to influence the Middle East and Africa has taken a massive hit, and Russia's influence will only continue to shrink.
AN-124 is made in Ulynovsk, Russia, KB Antonov is not ukrainian, was soviet
@@andrew6274
So . . . not Russian?
@@andrew6274 Made in Ukrainian SSR
AN-124 and Antonov is Ukrainian now: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antonov_An-124_Ruslan
The smaller IL-76 also used is Russian.
Lovely. Thank you Zeihan.
Pete my man. The real reason the Soviets backed the Syrians had to do more this connecting military bases in Syria, Egypt and Libya to put pressure on NATO naval forces in the Mediterranean. Yes, the Russian wanted to put pressure Israel to help support their Arab allies, not because the US and Israel were buddies, but the real deep down inside reason was to create another front for NATO to have to contend with that would allow Warsaw Pact countries like Romania, Bulgaria, etc. unfettered access to NATO's soft under belly (Italy et al). Libya and Egypt could put enough pressure on NATO to force them to commit valuable resources (the 6th Fleet and the British Med Sqd.) to the defense as opposed to being available for offensive actions against Warsaw Pact members aforementioned. Tartus in Syria also threatened the Aegean Sea, Dardanelles Straits and Turkey from its rear.
Thank you, Peter, great analysis, very informative.
US backed Afghanistan: falls in 3 weeks.
Russia: hold my vodka, I can do it faster in Syria.
Seriously. Laffing my ass off! Well done sir.
Afghanistan fell only because US left.
@3s0t3r1c Syria fell because Russia wasnt around anymore either, whats your point?
@@SA2004YG Afghanistan fell because the US didn't want to be there to prop it up anymore. Syria fell because Russia is too weak to hold it. Russia wanted desperately to hold onto Syria, as Syria is an essential part of Russia's African operations, which result in large amounts of gold and precious materials being syphoned back to Russia. Without Syria, Russia has no real foothold in the region. Russia thought that they could get away with sneaking its forces out of Syria to fight in Ukraine, but it turns out that they were too weak to do both. Now, Russia's investments in Africa will dry up, as its influence is pushed back to its own borders.
US backed Afghanistan: holds for over 20 years....
They don't have to go to Murmansk, they can dock in Kaliningrad. But they will need supplies and fuel to be sent to them from the Baltic Fleet.
Well, under the condition the Danes and Swedes dont block the Kattegat strait which is likely to happen considering Russia's recent sabotage of deep sea cables in the Baltic Sea.
That would still involve sailing around basically the entirety of Europe.
Maybe they can stop to resupply somewhere in Africa? Libya maybe?
@@Lumpy_PeterMy money is on Russia permanently anchoring the fleet in Lybia with a skeleton crew.
Even if they tried hugging the African coast for the entire trip west, once the fleet cleared Gibraltar and turned north, they could not dock in ANY port without being boarded and seized.
It's the second half of that run thats the actual problem. It's mid December right now, and that whole trip would take place in the northern hemisphere. Catching a decent strength winter storm while heading north would be bad. If they got caught in a mid-winter monster while sailing through the North Sea... the entire fleet would be at a very high risk of either directly sinking or being permanently crippled.
I guess Algeria is still a Russian partner?
I wish you could be the teacher in every classroom in America. You're a national treasure .
Why? He’s strong about everything
Had a marine for history in 6th grade (9-11-2001) he taught us more about geopolitics than anyone else in our lives probably.
😂🤮
@@BillDoughzer69Peter is a gay globalist shill. Not a marine. For example, he didn't even mention the leader of all this Syrian nightmare is a Al Nusra member who blew up Americans in the Iraq war, because he doesn't care.
There`s a channel called "Money and Macro" that`s sponsored by the Economist. It shows official data and stats about the things Zeihan is talking about. He`s wrong or over the top 80% of the time.
For example he`s been predicting that China will collapse in the next 10 years for 15 years now. I`ve seen articles from 2010 where he still talks about the same stuff.
Wow impressive contribution and insight. Enjoy The Happy Holidays 🎉
The Russians also practiced levelling cities and civillians with artillery in Chechnya. They taught the Serbs how to do it during the civil war in Ex-Yugoslavia. It's the only way they know how to conduct warfare, it seems.
Right, America never levels cities. 😂
Welcome to Aotearoa, would love to hear your thoughts on New Zealand's future 🙏🏾
Aotearoa is the traditionally name of the North Island only, South Island tribes never used the term. It was a European that suggest Maori use " Aotearoa" as a name for NZ and it stuck, however it was never actually agreed to by the tribes FYI.
thats a 10-sec video
bloomberg reported ruzzians are in talks with HTS about keeping port. Would welcome input on that.
Yeah, the kremlin is probably offering everything they can and cant to the new regime in order to keep the air and naval bases. And the fact that Israel is bombing Syria day and night for a week pushes the new regime away from the west. Its highly lilkely they make a deal with russia to keep their bases
Hard to see why anyone would extend port privilege to a former destroyer of civilians and war criminals..
EU said it will only lift sanctions if the Russians are expelled. I think HTS cares more about lifting sanctions to rebuilt the country than they do about anything the Russians might offer.
Nice to see you are visiting Taranaki hope the weather improves.
Great country New Zealand. Enjoy Peter
I don't know how the UA-cam algorithm got this on my feed, but man, am I glad it did! What a fiasco for the Russian plans. Got my popcorn out and watching.
My Arab friend says that rebuilding the temple is the only thing that can bring peace to the fertile crescent
An Arab that believes spending money on religion is the most important thing in society? Surely not! I've never heard of that before...
You seem to have forgotten the Libyan option Pierre!
Welcome to New Zealand by the way, enjoy your stay! RH Auckland, NZ 🇳🇿
Libya is unstable and the side that is friendly to Russia is controlled by Haftar, who has shown he changes sides as he pleases. So that is an option but not a great one.
You’d think the rebels would have waited till at least Peter had landed, so he could tell them what’s going on..
The rebels are internationally designated as a terrorist group.
nah, it would take them a week more as they are probably not signed up to his patreon
every time i watch this guy i get a headache
Welcome back to NZ Peter!
First I've ever heard of Syria's origins, and any explanation of Russia's presence there. What a sad mess.
The Turks controlled the whole Middle East for 500 years, their occupation of the area cut off the trade routes from Yemen to Palestine that cut off the spice trade to Europe, it drove the Europeans to find another way to get the spices from Indonesia, thus the Portuguese maritime successes going around Africa and Columbus discovering the New World. The Turks knew how to handle the Arabs, didn't care about "human rights", chopped off heads. The Turks will return the minute they are able, once the world no longer cares about Middle East oil they will take the whole region back and sharpen their swords, you can bet on it.
That's one way to express that you're an uneducated and ignorant person.
Assad was an ally of the Soviet Union, the relationship continued after the dissolution of the USSR with the Russian Federation.
@@jonathancurran5366 Thank you. UA-cam can be quite an education.
@@Cybercop7156 Yeah, but you'd better be a good judge of sources or you're screwed. I guess that's true for any news/education source, but any serious institution will have proper checks to ensure quality. Not youtube, so you're on your own. Unless you count algorithms, and I guess _technically_ algorithms can be preferenced towards factual quality, but I think we've all come to know better on here :o) So, I'd argue take everything you watch on youtube with a relatively big grain of salt and be prepared to have a wrong or warped perspective on w/e you think you just learned. That's what 'free' and 'visual' get you, unfortunately.
Exceptional as usual
Part of me does wonder why the Russians would not have the air lift capacity when they were also able to get their military equipment into Syria before this coup started. Anyone who would have the answer?
That was before the Ukraine. They might just set up shop in Libya anyway.
i would assume that the war in Ukraine is just that resource intensive
If I remember well, in times of peace the Turks customarily allowed passage through the Dardanelles to military units, the exception being nuclear-powered vessels that were a big no-no.
In fact, a number of amphibious ships (3 or 6? My memory is eeak) were detached from the North Fleet to the Black Sea a few weeks before the end of 2021, and they arrived to destination.
In time of war, it was everybody's understanding that Turkey would closes the passage to any and all military ships, transports included. (May even be mandated to do so by the Montreux Convention, I am not sure - for sure, they are blocking the passage now.)
Not to mention, Sebastopol is not the safe harbour that it used to be.
Do, back in the day they could move stuff to Sirya with little fuss. Today, not so much.
They probably shipped their equipment to Syria bit by bit. Ships can carry much more stuff than airplanes can. Even the US with the best logistics couldn't airlift all our stuff out of Afghanistan
That was before they got bogged down in Ukraine and were still allowed to sail through the Bosphorus and Dardanelles, and back then they weren´t in such a hurry to get the stuff moving as they might be in now, unless of course they can strike a deal with the new Syrian government to keep at least some kind of foothold in Syria. Certainly they can fly out their stuff but it will take time as they don´t have as many transport planes as the US, getting the ships back home will be the harder part, should they have to withdraw.
0:05 Holly Hut in Egmont National Park, NZ.... It's a great place to stay and explore the surrounding area with the Ahukawakawa Swamp and Bells Falls.
popular trail for backpacking, birding, and camping, but you can still enjoy some solitude during quieter times of day.
The best times to visit this trail are October through April. You'll need to leave pups at home - dogs aren't allowed on this trail.
Bookings and fees are required to stay at Holly Hut. near Inglewood, Taranaki, North Island, New Zealand, Oceania , South Pacific,
Camping is also possible (first come, first served).
Peter: "Syria is an artificial construct" -- isn't that what Putin is saying about the Ukraine?
Great vid
Turkey has everything to do with the timing of this revolution. They kept their Islamist allies protected in the Syrian province of Idlib that they occupy, waiting for the right time to intervene. And they equipped and armed their Sunni ´Syrian National Army’ proxy along the border to keep the Syrian Kurds in check. Erdogan tried but failed to topple Assad back in 2014/2015, courtesy of the Russians. He then tried to negotiate with him return the return of the 4 million Syrian refugees in Turkey to no avail. Erdogan concluded that the best way to ensure their return is toppling the Assad regime. In addition, Turkey fears a dislocation of Syria and subsequent emergence of a Kurdish independent entity south of its border that would inevitably link up with its Kurdish counterparts in Turkey, something Erdogan sees as the greatest threat to Turkey’s territorial integrity. Turkey’s now in control in Syria. Nothing definitive can happen there going forward if Turkey opposes it.
Excellent, I can't wait to hear the opposite of what's going on in the world. Thanks Peter!
How do you translate Anabasis into Russian?
The famous russian mercenary Xenophob will translate.
@@baddolphin1423LOL!
😆 - the difference is that the Greek army could fight. I get the impression that the Russians aren't doing that, just trying to get the heck out of there.
@GaryBickford Fair's fair. So would I.
@@ferranferran6955 True.
Welcome back to NZ, Peter.
Oil will always flow......
It just depends on who will make all the money!
Don't disappoint me. I bought a new air popper for this.
Hello team
Go team !
Hit 240k today. Appreciate you for all the knowledge and nuggets you had thrown my way over the last months. Started with 24k in September 2024..
I would really love to know how much work you did put in to get to this stage
I will be forever thankful to you, you changed my life I will continue to speak on your behalf for the world to hear that you saved me from huge financial debt with just a little trade, thank you Jihan Wu you're such a life saver
As a beginner in this, it’s essential for you to have a mentor to keep you accountable.
Jihan Wu is also my trade analyst, he has guided me to identify key market trends, pinpointed strategic entry points, and provided risk assessments, ensuring my trades decisions align with market dynamics for optimal returns
Jihan Wu Services has really set the standard for others to follow, we love him here in Canada 🇨🇦 as he has been really helpful and changed lots of life's
His guidance allowed me to restructure my retirement plan, resulting in an estimated $700,000 more by the time I retire.
But we are told endlessly that "diversity is a strength". So why is Syria not a paradise?
Diversity is strength in civilised countries... Syria is NOT on the list... and the USA is near the bottom, teetering on falling off.
@@judewarner1536
Nonsense
They don’t try to utilize their diversity. They’re wasting their energy killing it off.
I've been asking the same question about Russia. Russia has historically been made up of a bunch of diverse minority groups, but every single time a conflict breaks out, the Russian ethnic majority rounds them up and sends them to the frontlines to die. It's probably due to education. Well educated regions with lots of diversity that blends together well are much more successful than places where an uneducated ethnic majority ravages ethnic minorities for their own short term gain, rather than overcoming differences to work together and better themselves in the long term.
Japan, chuckling in nondiverse.
Hey Peter, welcome to NZ
Seeing your videos a week later gives the feeling you are not keeping up
If you’re not paying for a service, you’re the product.
Patreon, subscribe there to keep up.
I'm sure i loose brain cells everytime I listen to this guy for more than two minutes
You forgot the important part. Thank you Israel.
gross
Well explained Peter 😊
It's crazy how outdated this video in LOL.
You're saying it's crazy that after telling us he was putting everything on Patreon but still giving it away for free here that he went ahead and did it and now the videos are a week older? That doesn't seem crazy to me at all. Crazy would be someone thinking that that meant they could criticise Peter for giving us this free analysis rather than just paying like everyone else did.
How is this crazy? He's on Patreon which is more current by I believe one week. Besides this is history. It's news. Does it need to be THAT current?
We hope your analysis is correct. Happy Holidays.😊
Amazing what a music festival can do
I knew it was NZ, that bush is unmistakable. Nice he came back so soon, must have enjoyed the peace.
Man I just can’t look at Peter the same after that election prediction. He was so wrong. 😂 I’ll keep watching but I am going to need to see at least one of his prediction come true to see him in the right way again. Man he was dead dead wrong
Well, we were all dead wrong. Even Trump said he likes stupid people. Why? Look who voted for him. I had more hope for America. I was dead wrong too!
It’s different when people are looking to you for information that’s us important. Maybe I am making too much of a big deal. I find it funny that’s all. I probably should go watch his explanation video.
Kia ora ! Peter ..why not meet MFAT officials in Wellington to give them an overview as you see the world geo politics?
Week old videos unfortunately means you’re losing relevance. Also your comments on UK food didn’t help. Shame, but true. You’re a very talented orator.
losing relevence only to brokie 😂
Get a life 🙄
Ships. What kind and how many are we talking about in Syria? A rough estimate would help give this information more context. Thank you.
Little Finger Turkey orchestrated it.
And Russia will thank it, for lettings its troop pass home.
Tywin Lannister could be a better fit. What military power did Little Finger have?
@@BulanGoldstein What power did it use?
Zeihan - what an absolute boss 😎 🙇🏿♂️
Not well researched. Russia has a naval and air base in Libya (Al Khadim) that they can retreat to.
Another reason the Russians were pro Syria is that Syria allowed the Russia to use their Mediterranean port, thus enabling extended Russian maritime operations in the Mediterranean.
What is the point in this report? It’s a week out of date and rather pathetic as a result. I’m afraid that your grasping for even more revenue has finally ruined this channel for me. Sadly unsubscribing…..
don't let the screen door hit you...
It offers an objective review of Peter's assessment of the event at the time. Things he didn't anticipate like the Turks offering Russia safe passage will have happened, and perhaps cast doubts on his other overly optimistic takes.
Zeihan is just doing what he does: parrot the latest neocon propaganda that he found in the western librul media.
Latakia and Tartus are irreplaceable as Military assets. This leaves Kaliningrad, Vladivostok, and Novorossiysk as the remaining Winter Ports for surface ships available to the Russian Navy. This is dire for Russian power projection aspirations. Try to think of a port where the Russian Navy can `hang out´ until Spring. Kaliningrad is a long ride, the Sea of Marmara is closed to warships.
This eliminates the Black Sea Port of Novorossiysk.
Lol, how lack of understanding this report is, now I know why Chinese economy never collapsed the way Zeihan always predicted!
Thanks Peter
First 2 minutes, lots of false history
thank you professor ❤️
Thanks for a reminder this info is old and out of date. No need to listen here.
Very nice! I was born Auckland, NZ 1945! Dad was US army! Mom native NZ! Good report!
You are like 17 days behind guy
How the hell is Peter in a new town for his each new episode? Who is funding his trips and how can I get them to fund my trips?
Yah hi from queenstown NZ enjoy...
A couple of points.
They don't have to sail to Murmansk. There's also Kaliningrad and St Petersburg.
The Russians could move some assets from Syria to Tobruk in Libya. This would not be an ideal solution because it would put them closer to NATO bases, making them easier to track.
The loss of Hmeimim airbase would seriously hinder Russian activities in Africa because that was about as far as their cargo planes could fly from Russian territory without refuelling. So the Russians would have to find somewhere else to refuel their military aircraft flying to and from Africa and that could mean they do not always fly through "friendly skies".
Tartus is Russian navy's only repair and maintenance port in the Mediterranean and their only deep-water port capable of hosting submarines.
Russia has already sent vessels from the Northern Fleet to pick up equipment from Tartus but it will be weeks before they get there and several more weeks to make the return journey.
Anything they leave behind will probably be destroyed by Israeli airstrikes "to prevent it falling into the hands of terrorists and later being used to attack Israel".
If it is not possible for Russia to keep its bases at Hmeimim/Latakia and Tartus they could try to expand their facilities in Tobruk. This would still take years to complete and assumes the Kremlin-backed regime of Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar endures in that part of Libya.
Given the strategic importance of its bases in western Syria you may be forgiven for thinking the Russians may have made more of an effort to support Bashar al-Assad's regime in its hour of need. Perhaps the Russians felt his regime was a "lost cause" and that they could do a deal with the next Syrian government. There are historical examples of countries maintaining enclaves in ostensibly hostile territory; Gibraltar, Guantanamo Bay, and Kaliningrad spring to mind.
Peter Zehian flies: NEXUS EVENT
What,back in my homeland again I was born on the ocean side of the mountain, called Mt Egmond back in those days.
Though we have our problems here, can't express the satisfaction of the Russian troubles. They're leadership has been inhuman for 100 years.
He didn't mention Libya as a possible russian port of resupply for Africa. They need to go from pro russia to anti russia before we see an unraveling of russian influence in africa. This will make it the focus of both nato and russsian diplomacy.
Yeah, seems like a blindspot. A deal between a desperate Russia and one of the two governments in Libya sounds like it could work.