Hi, I am not the best at statistics so this may not be a very good question, but if you want projections for bets like over, under, and runline then why use an interquartile range to create a high and low? I understand that it is to keep the extremes from skewing data, but if you're eventually running 10,000 different outcomes to base the percent chance for different scores then the extremes are already accounted for as they are rare occurrences. I imagine you may have tried that or knew better, but I wanted to know if the specific reason. I suppose my follow up question would be what happens if you don't create a high and low but use another factor like starting pitcher and bullpen to keep extreme values from skewing results? In any case the model is very interesting, and I enjoyed the video!
Great Video . So if I type any data , numbers or letters outside of the cells that has nothing to do with the data you are using it changes the percentages on the game tab ? I have never seen this before . Is there a way to prevent what is happening ? Thanks
When you use rand() it generates new values every time you make a change to the sheet. You can look up Monte Carlo simulations if you want to learn more about rand()
Hello, I remade your model. This my be a stupid question but I'll ask it anyway. I was just wondering if it would be beneficial to account for the runs allowed, as well, instead of just the runs scored. In my head you could take these 2 projections and average them together to get an even closer projection of the predicted outcome. Please let me hear any feedback. All feedback is welcome. Thank you.
When you expand the same size down to 10k do you need to expand the rest of the cells to the right or just expand the randomize cells and leave the calculations? If that makes sense
Great content, and well explained, thanks Benjamin . I'm not sure, but to update the sheet, is it done when we open it or do we have to do something else to activate the update on scraping the data? Update: sorry, I just understood (hopefully), it's when we select the game, that the data is collected, is it?
@@TheBenjaminWagnerit says there is a “#DIV/0” error and it says function divide parameter 2 cannot be zero what does that mean? How can I fix it? Please and thank you if you respond
@@TheBenjaminWagner Thank you for everything, I also would love this! Your videos are great! Would you possibly be open to discussing custom models with particular advanced metrics as a service? I have a few I really like to incorporate with some ideas, however, I'm not great with the computer portion of the model
@@TheBenjaminWagner There are some that are considered more “important” vs others such as DVOA (defense adjusted-valued over average), EPA (expected point average), success rate (success of QB passing vs def, success of WR vs defense, etc). Just to name a few… Most oddsmakers and professionals use these metrics, but My thought is to build a model similar to what you have while taking these advanced metrics, perhaps create a correlation (maybe R script?) through regression analysis to determine some type of weighted benefit of each metric for its impact on the game and final score. That’s where I think would differentiate things…. I would be happy and very grateful to connect with you to discuss more if interested.
First of all, love the model. I’ve been messing around with it for a couple days now. I was wondering if there is a way I could add statcast ballpark factor into the model to make the runs scored even more accurate. Im not very savvy with sheets but would love to learn more!
Hello, I am following your work and I find it very interesting. I have a copy of your previous work and if it is not a bother, could you share the link to the finished sheet?
@@TheBenjaminWagner Great work. I'd be interested in looking at one that accounts for starting pitchers and lineups since that affects the outcome. I'd love to follow along because I'm sure you can figure it out!
whats up Ben- would love to learn how to build these but to be more productive, id rather hire someone like yourself to help me with some tasks. for a price of coarse. I have an existing model that I would like to make a few changes to; for example instead of Last 30 days data Id like to add a spot for last 15 and last 7 days. Very small changes and additions. How can I reach out to you about this? or would you even be interested?
@@JorgeDiaz-xs5ou my prior video had pitchers as well. You could combine the two sheets and make a real nice model. Here’s the link to that one: ua-cam.com/video/_9SVNmc1nHo/v-deo.htmlsi=aaQWC25AQo2hNv-T
Thank you so much for the video. I was wondering if the top value was home, and the side value was away, or vise versa.
Hi, I am not the best at statistics so this may not be a very good question, but if you want projections for bets like over, under, and runline then why use an interquartile range to create a high and low? I understand that it is to keep the extremes from skewing data, but if you're eventually running 10,000 different outcomes to base the percent chance for different scores then the extremes are already accounted for as they are rare occurrences. I imagine you may have tried that or knew better, but I wanted to know if the specific reason. I suppose my follow up question would be what happens if you don't create a high and low but use another factor like starting pitcher and bullpen to keep extreme values from skewing results? In any case the model is very interesting, and I enjoyed the video!
THANKS for the videos!!! do you share your complete sheets?
in order to simulate more games, (1000+) are you just adding rows to the poission spread sheet
?
Great Video . So if I type any data , numbers or letters outside of the cells that has nothing to do with the data you are using it changes the percentages on the game tab ? I have never seen this before . Is there a way to prevent what is happening ? Thanks
When you use rand() it generates new values every time you make a change to the sheet. You can look up Monte Carlo simulations if you want to learn more about rand()
Hello, I remade your model. This my be a stupid question but I'll ask it anyway. I was just wondering if it would be beneficial to account for the runs allowed, as well, instead of just the runs scored. In my head you could take these 2 projections and average them together to get an even closer projection of the predicted outcome. Please let me hear any feedback. All feedback is welcome. Thank you.
When you expand the same size down to 10k do you need to expand the rest of the cells to the right or just expand the randomize cells and leave the calculations? If that makes sense
Great content, and well explained, thanks Benjamin . I'm not sure, but to update the sheet, is it done when we open it or do we have to do something else to activate the update on scraping the data?
Update: sorry, I just understood (hopefully), it's when we select the game, that the data is collected, is it?
It will update when you open the sheet as well as when you change the selected team.
Great video
Hi. Great job! Can you send me yours two MLB sheets?
docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1AwKopyWTOGIXKkRdP4XPKhE8ZXotsMkqp40gZ-u0oUA/copy
docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ke8c2T3qtGW9jNW9fFvPbcSeNbI2RshMIWGiexw6Z5o/copy
@@TheBenjaminWagnerit says there is a “#DIV/0” error and it says function divide parameter 2 cannot be zero what does that mean? How can I fix it? Please and thank you if you respond
which is the visitor and which is the local.......at the beginning of the video between col and chc.........gracias
Thanks for everything, can you make a program for the NFL to find out who has a chance of winning in the game?
Absolutely, I’ll make an NFL one when we get closer to the season.
@@TheBenjaminWagner Thank you for everything, I also would love this! Your videos are great!
Would you possibly be open to discussing custom models with particular advanced metrics as a service? I have a few I really like to incorporate with some ideas, however, I'm not great with the computer portion of the model
@@DPM2014 What metrics in particular?
@@TheBenjaminWagner There are some that are considered more “important” vs others such as DVOA (defense adjusted-valued over average), EPA (expected point average), success rate (success of QB passing vs def, success of WR vs defense, etc). Just to name a few…
Most oddsmakers and professionals use these metrics, but My thought is to build a model similar to what you have while taking these advanced metrics, perhaps create a correlation (maybe R script?) through regression analysis to determine some type of weighted benefit of each metric for its impact on the game and final score. That’s where I think would differentiate things….
I would be happy and very grateful to connect with you to discuss more if interested.
@@DPM2014 Sounds interesting. Sure, you can contact me at ben@bookiesmart.com
First of all, love the model. I’ve been messing around with it for a couple days now.
I was wondering if there is a way I could add statcast ballpark factor into the model to make the runs scored even more accurate. Im not very savvy with sheets but would love to learn more!
I appreciate the video but it’s incredibly difficult to keep up with you and try to build the model. Could you please send me your model?
Thanks
Hello, I am following your work and I find it very interesting. I have a copy of your previous work and if it is not a bother, could you share the link to the finished sheet?
docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ke8c2T3qtGW9jNW9fFvPbcSeNbI2RshMIWGiexw6Z5o/copy
Thanks for the link to good going. I'm still going to attempt to follow along and do it myself on my days off
@@TheBenjaminWagner Great work. I'd be interested in looking at one that accounts for starting pitchers and lineups since that affects the outcome. I'd love to follow along because I'm sure you can figure it out!
so how does this work with pitching matchups? does it take that into consideration
This particular sheet is using the team score regardless of lineup. In the other mlb video I did, you can select particular players.
nice video
Could you do something with machine learning?
whats up Ben- would love to learn how to build these but to be more productive, id rather hire someone like yourself to help me with some tasks. for a price of coarse. I have an existing model that I would like to make a few changes to; for example instead of Last 30 days data Id like to add a spot for last 15 and last 7 days. Very small changes and additions. How can I reach out to you about this? or would you even be interested?
@@My_oh_face for sure. You can contact me at ben@bookiesmart.com
@@TheBenjaminWagner thank you
This is great! May I get a link please?
@@Lowrollertx docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ke8c2T3qtGW9jNW9fFvPbcSeNbI2RshMIWGiexw6Z5o/copy
That’s dope! ❤ can you please send me a copy?
@@lbeezi029 docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ke8c2T3qtGW9jNW9fFvPbcSeNbI2RshMIWGiexw6Z5o/copy
Could you share the link please thanks
docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ke8c2T3qtGW9jNW9fFvPbcSeNbI2RshMIWGiexw6Z5o/copy
@@TheBenjaminWagner THANK YOU VERY MUCH FOR SENDING ME THE LINK, THANK YOU SO MUCH
Excelent work!!!....How could you add the information related to the starting pitchers.?....
@@JorgeDiaz-xs5ou my prior video had pitchers as well. You could combine the two sheets and make a real nice model. Here’s the link to that one: ua-cam.com/video/_9SVNmc1nHo/v-deo.htmlsi=aaQWC25AQo2hNv-T
Thank you so much !