There's an interesting parallel between Ramsay's jealousy and Arianne's. He's Roose's legitimised firstborn son and wedded to a Stark in Winterfell - it's quite likely genuinely Roose's plan for Ramsay to be the new Warden of the North, while Walda's baby will "merely" inherit the Dreadfort. But Ramsay can't shake the feeling that the Dreadfort - with its *de facto* proof of his legitimate Bolton status meaning more to him than a paper one - is the more important prize, and he'll gladly ruin Roose's plans (and probably kill him) to get it. (The parallel being that Arianne rebelled against her father after learning that he intended for Quentyn to inherit Sunspear, not realising he had much bigger plans for her.)
would also explain Walda's fear. Specifically fear, rather than 'shock'. You'd expect her to be shocked at learning Ramsay murdered Walder, but she's AFRAID. Why? Because for the first time she realises Ramsay's plan. Roose presumably told his wife he'd legitimise Ramsay, and that Walda's son wouldn't rule the North. She'd got used to that, content that at least her child would get the House seat, itself a considerable fief. Now she knows Ramsay won't even let that happen. Her child, if it's a son, is as good as dead before it's even born.
A video is uploaded and now my watch begins. It shall not end until that epilogue where you say you may be wrong about half of it. I shall ignore my wife and hold no conversations with my children. I shall live and die by your upload schedule. I am the viewer in the darkness. I am the watcher on the sofa. I pledge my subscription to Preston Jacobs, for this night and all the nights to come.
hey, you guys realize that the reason that OJ got off is that Mark Furman admitted on tape that he frequently framed black people for crimes, right? you've heard of the Furman tapes before?
One thing you missed is Ramsay's falchion. He was brandishing it frequently in an earlier chapter and even used it to cut his pie but when it came to put Luton out of his misery Ramsay grabs a pike from a nearby soldier to do it. The only reason Ramsay wouldn't go for the sword he loves brandishing so much is that he couldn't and the only reason he couldn't is because it could implicate him. Perhaps it was still covered in blood from the murder.
The collapsing stable and poorly constructed roof, were because Ramsey burned down Winterfell, and when the invited all the Northern houses to Winterfell, they hastily made all new wood structures. They also commented that the front gate was poorly constructed as well.
wouldn't sending out only "stark loyal" houses encourage them to defect to stannis? especially the umbers. if you sent out the freys with them a defection seems less likely.
@@leeroberts4850 The Freys will turn on Ramsay, maybe. But Roose is the one who sends them out. They won't turn on him. More importantly, the Freys wouldn't back Stannis. Stannis is far too likely to punish them for the Red Wedding. Why take that risk?
The problem for Stannis is also food shortage, if he sent disloyal Northern houses out and they fought, great Stannis is weakened and the Northern houses probably destroyed. If they defect to Stannis, Stannis now has even more mouths to feed.
I feel like Bolton’s have the most visibly large northern army. Mannerly has been gateheting strength and refugees from hornwood and white knife lands this plus having a city gives him at least 6000 men.
Why doesn't Ramsay just send 20 good men to do the job in the books like he did in the show? Poor George getting caught up in all of these small details. Doesn't he know the fans want to get to the ball numbing action as quickly as possible so we can be SHOCKED ™ (SHOCKED ™ is a registered trademark of D&D LLC a subsidiary of HBO)? Who cares about intricate plot when you can experience DRAMA™. He needs to wrap up these boring side stories and get to the fire dragons fighting ice zombies already! Doesn't he understand that he is just Tolkein 2.0 and has to give the fans the fantasy epic they all want?! Anyway, I think Preston is reading a bit too much into this. It's not like George has decades of experience writing crazy, conspiracy-laden, nuanced science fiction under his belt. He's obviously spending 25 years writing a run of the mill fantasy story that relies on all the tropes we've come to expect from the genre. Good thing I figured this all out by reading the GOT wiki and watching the HBO series otherwise I'd spend all my time reading into things.
I think he is giving far too much credit to Ramsay. I don't recall him doing anything particularly brilliant or intelligent compared to many other characters. He is shown to be cruel and ruthless...but we know that his father treats men as his playthings.
Brian Griffin Ramsey has pulled off at least four(albiet sloppy) plans so far. the millers boys, lady hornwood, identity swapping with Reek #1, bringing the Dreadforts host down on Ser Roderyk....all planned by Ramsey. all of which also kept in the game and advanced his status.
None of those are particularly brilliant and are actually problems. The miller boys were a short term solution that is causing more trouble than it solved. Destroying Ser Roderyk, at that moment, caused his father to need to make moves to say it was Ironmen. One of major reasons Little Walder had to die (and Big Walder needs to follow) is because they know it was Dreadfort men that burnt Winterfell. Back to Ser Roderyk...not hard to destroy an army that believes you are there to help them instead. Lady Hornwood...sloppy does not begin to describe that blunder. It nearly cost him his life, the only saving factor was that he was so baseborn that he could swap with Reek. Even then, Preston rightly points out, Lady Hornwood was loved and had many suitors...her former men are likely to slip a knife in Ramsay's back. Ramsay is only still in the game because his father covered for him and the Northerners were busy in the South.
I enjoy reading the lengthy sub plot stuff. In case you haven't noticed real life is pretty much the same but with different context: I could write a story about you, when you get up and do whatever it is you do but that story becomes WAY more interesting when we add in family members and friends with their own ambitions, thoughts, actions and motivations. Then to make it more interesting we form close relationships with some characters and distant relationships with others and see how your perspective and opinion on each other causes you to act in various ways, causing ripple effects that border on literary genius yet is just normal when dealing with human interaction.
Preston's a sweet summer child, what does he know of winter, when the snows fall a hundred feet deep, when the sun hides for years and children are born and live and die, all in darkness?
This whole scenario may just be my favorite of all your vids Preston.Thoughtful and coherent. Makes alot of sense.Some of ur theories are really out there and take huge leaps and reaches.This had none of those.Just solid thoughts.Thanks man.
PRESTON MY MAN! Honestly this is the best analysis/crackpot theory you have ever done. I am wholly convinced; everything adds up and whilst being complex, the schemes are not over the top. It reveals that all parties are independent actors and work for their own goals. And that Ramsay is a schemer and not stupid at all was proven a number of times through his actions. Your work here actually convinced me to patreonize for the first time. Keep it up! Greetings from Austria
I just find it hard to believe that Roose would let Ramsey sceme against him and even kill him since Roose is very aware of Ramsey's opposition. In fact I'd rather expect Roose to kill Ramsey if he feels like he is a threat. Either way I count on Roose having some kind of backup plan even if he couldnt execute his original one. But just naively leaving himself behind in a very vulnurable position just doesnt sound like Roose at all
I think you are overestimating roose, he knows Ramsey killed his first son yet he lets Ramsey live and even legitimizes him. Roose is a complete and utter idiot when it comes to Ramsey.
Roose is getting old (he’s in his 50s) and Ramsey is his only living child. He tells Lady Dustin that he won’t live to see any kids he has with Lady Walda growing up to adulthood (assuming Ramsey doesn’t kill them first). So for better or worse Ramsey is Roose’s only heir which is why Roose tolerates Ramsey’s insanity and scheming.
Another great series dude, out of ALL the "Song of Ice and Fire" channels, Yours is my favorite! Too be honest I like BOOK Roose a lot, a very cold and calculating man, BUT Ramsey is a up-jumped sociopath and I CAN'T WAIT till he gets what is coming to him, it's gong to be SOOO amazing to read.....come on George, I know winter is coming, but we need it
I love that bob Dylan cover and this murder mystery series is fantastic good luck with the podcasts 2 they are also great. I'm loving the way that the ASOIAF Alex Jones is going at the moment :)
YES!! Please, do more analysis videos like this. It would be wonderful to see even a slightly higher ratio of analyses videos to tv show, winds of winter, and thousand worlds videos.
i love hearing Preston none scripted. Its great 2 look at the series in depth in the series that he does but hearing his opinions on the series more generally is a nice change, also the more relaxed setting makes it better 2 listen 2 while doing something else. UA-cam podcasts are so much better than radio now.
Joe Hunter fair point. I went back and listened to some, and it was really cool to hear P.J. thinking in real time. And the Red Team guy really isn't bad at all, he's just more animated than I'd like from my typical GoT pundits. He's like the wacky morning DJ on Rockin' Hot Kiss 99.8 Hot Kiss FM, whereas Preston is straight fuckin' business.
Very solid theory. I mean Ramsay responsible for child murder? haha, that does that make good sense. And I think your roof idea is spot on. The way the show handles that is absurd. It would have to be something more clandestine.
It would be interesting if Stannis's plan involves him taking the North and leaving a minimal army outside of Winterfell to ensure no travel in and out. He'd be laying siege without attacking the castle, it would be a nice parallel between now and the siege of Storm's End. He could take the North and the Bolton's wouldn't be able to stop him. It would also mean all this inner turmoil within Winterfell would be more important in the long run, since they can't get out and their food is being exhausted and people are dying, tensions would rise. Through winter they would turn on each other, and the horror that is the Bolton's could be expanded into outright cannibalism to survive, showing us firsthand how monstrous and depraved they can be. A truly terrifying sight as a climax for this plotline, instead of a typical battle in the snow, it would be the winds of winter taking hold as the literally eat each other alive.
Wouldn't the disloyal northerners just join up with Stannis if ejected? I get the general advantages if they didn't do this but it still feels like that's what they would do given the circumstances.
Agreed. It seems like any Northern house you toss out into the snow would likely join up with the Southron Lord, who is in open opposition to the guy who's blamed for killing the Young Wolf.
Emil Olivelöf it is a strong possibility, but you also have to take note that Stannis army is outside facing the elements while roose has winterfell as fortifications. It is alway easier to defend a location then to take it especially when the invading army isn't use to the climate/culture. So joining stannis dosen't promise victory plus a lot the lords going out still have family members being kept hostage.
It's true they might join Stannis, but then they would probably just die with him. At that point they would just be additional mouths to feed (the situation changes when Arya Stark escapes, but she hasn't at that point).
Juan Pablo Mina I agree they would probably die with Stannis but why even risk it? Roose has about a 2:1 advantage over Stannis in numbers, why make that a 1:1 if even only for a week until they presumably starve? Again, Roose thinks that Stannis is just about to attack him. Giving him more numbers right now would be the worst thing to possibly do.
Why even risk it? Because he hasn't enough food for everyone. If he can't feed them, how could Stannis? Sure, in a perfect world Roose wouldn't even be in Winterfell, but the storm happened.
Preston if he had sent manderlys and umbers outside to fight and both were in fact plotting they would just join up with Stannis. By sending the Freys and Manderlys together the Manderlys are deterred from crossing to Stannis. And by keeping the umbers inside he also maintains them in line. actually the move that made sense was ejecting one force with questionable loyalty and one loyal, this way he makes sure no one crosses over.
i guess my whole question is why did Ramsay think Little Walder would tell anybody about the boys being alive? just a character flaw or everyone’s mounting interests in the crypts of winterfell?
He's planning on killing his father in the books, and that means if he wants winterfell, he has to kill anyone who knows Bran and rickon are alive. He's just playing it safe
You do such get work, love the videos(even if I may not agree with 100% of what you believe) I believe if even if I personally do not believe it, hearing other sides to something is always great(especially when the person is so knowledgeable.)
Its less about belief and than keeping an open mind while theorizing analytically about subtle relationships between overlooked details and anticipating twists on the horizon of the narrative with context to see the stories within the story below the surface.
Max Power Most of the time when I watch a Preston video I'm waiting for him to say something completely.oulandish and I just ditch the theory by then. But some theories of his, like this one, work extremely well within what's written. As an example I can point out the Dornish master plan series. I stopped watching after he started spouting the glass candle shit, but the stuff before it was pretty great.
Every genius has a little madness in them...lol That's why I said I don't always agree with what is said, but it's cool to hear theories I would never think of.
Perhaps he was yawning *because* he'd been awake for hours. We don't just yawn when we wake up. In fact, I find myself yawning *more* when I've been up for hours, but am tired, rather than yawning a lot when I've *just* woken up (though I acknowledge I'm not everyone).
Nice work on this one. I always forget about the Hornwood complication. Also I rewatched the '50k subs q&a' video on the weekend and PLEASE PLEASE go Full Preston and do a video on your theory about Tywin's soul now residing in Gregor's body??? That is just too awesome to keep to yourself. Thanks again 😊🤘🏻
Part of Stannis' arc is Donal Noye was wrong in the 'metal' assessment. Robert was actually iron and rusted when he wasn't beaten into a plow, to mix metaphors..
That Watchmen inspired intro is great lol... makes me think the ending could go something like this: Dany: Bran, wait! Before you leave... I did the right thing, didn't I? It all worked out in the end. Bran: "In the end"? Nothing ends, Daenerys. Nothing ever ends.
The theory sounds solid but there's a few lingering questions... Why is Big Walder still alive? To blame the Manderly? They would be blamed either way... Why not kill them both? Why did Big Walder go along with this? As you pointed out in the last video, he could die... So he risks death and most likely sacrifice hundreds/thousand of frey men in exchange of? Removing the 38th heir to the twins? What's in it for him? Or was it just the threats? So can we assume he told someone later on (a frey)? And most importantly, why is Luton dead? To silence him? If he had to talk wouldn't it be done already? I mean, if commit murder and want to silence a witness, you have to do it BEFORE he's in contact with everyone you do not want him to talk to, right? But Luton was with everyone for at least a few minutes. If he didn't split the beans to Roose now, why would he do it later on? This is an extremely important matter. He would speak to Roose right away, or not at all, wouldn't he? From Ramsay's perspective, either he's 100% loyal to him, or he isn't. If he is 100% loyal, why kill him? If he is not, why allow him to be with Roose, even if only a few minutes? That's incredibly stupid. Not to say that Ramsay is clever, but if he planned all this, why have Luton killed there and not kill him after Little Walder? And then kill Big Walder as well? 2 freys and a bolton dead, this REALLY points to the manderly (or any northern house, so it works). Allowing Big Walder to speak in front of everyone, and giving 5 minutes to Luton to speak to Roose - had he been disloyal to Ramsay - seems an unnecessary risk. And Luton didn't talk to Roose, so why kill him, now rather than with Little Walder? Something seems off.
This is what I think: Allowing Big Walder to live makes it easier to throw the Manderlys and Freys against each other. If psycho Ramsay gave Hosteen his nephew's corpse and was like "the Manderlys did it", Hosteen probably wouldn't have bought it. Hosteen believes Big Walder not only because of his hatred for Wyman and the other Manderlys, but also because the accusations are coming from another Frey (Big Walder). As for what's in it for Big Walder, I'm guessing after he witnessed his much stronger and imposing cousin get butchered by Ramsay, he thought it would be in his best interest to stay alive and not get murdered as well. It was probably the threats. Also, sacrificing Freys might also be in his best interest, given they could also be ahead of him in the line of succession. He probably didn't tell anyone [if he did, the person he told this to would have probably refused to go out there (for good reason) and stirred up some undesired shit]. Luton being killed in the same place and at the same time as Little Walder would have been very suspicious, maybe even for a dumbass like Hosteen. Ramsay needed an excuse to kill Luton. Luton being fatally wounded in a heated scuffle isn't nearly as suspicious to the people watching, I believe, and it serves as an excuse. Why let him be around other people? Necessary risk? He probably threatened him as well, so he was probably pretty confident it would have taken him more than five minutes to tell someone. That's what I think, anyway.
I am not convinced about Luton being responsible either (though not convinced that it wasn't him either). But I do think that Ramsay giving the order makes sense. Wanting the Dreadfort is not only a practical matter for him. He obviously has some deep issues about his illegitimacy, and a fixation with wanting to be the official heir. I don't know if he plans to usurp his father yet, but I am certain than he plans to get rid of Fat Walda's child. Considering that the Freys support Roose through Fat Walda, they would obviously be opposed to that and pose a huge problem. It makes sense for him to try to get rid of them, or at least to strain their loyalty to his father and Fat Walda as much as possible.
For Luton. I think it could be the case that he's the one that tattled on Ramsey. Roose stated a belief that Ramsey's bastards aren't really his men. Ramsey did a stupid thing by killing Walder. Luton told Roose. Thus the argument. Ramsey instigates the fight. Gets Luton in the middle of it for revenge. Sends a message to his father.
favorite UA-cam channel by far, will you be tackling the ice dragon after the thousand worlds? Also, keep making videos with red team review they are epic.
Alisa I love those two doing a podcast. That's become my new favorite thing on UA-cam. red teams snarky sarcastic take and Preston book knowledge are a great match up. THEY should be doing the after thrones show on HBO go.
Anthony Lankford that would be savage. I love preston's "missing" series and his Chad summer child reviews for last season. I'm giving red team review another try. His excessive use of profanity is slightly annoying but I am enjoying the podcast.
Becky Finch yeah I agree with you about red team. He's kind of douchey and hates on other UA-camrs way too much (justifyable or not). Not to mention most of us in this comment section are more knowledgeable about asoaf than he is, which makes him look utterly clueless next to Preston.
Preston, a question about the North: Wouldn't it be more fitting for GRRM to make all the squabble about "who's ruling the north" to be irrelevant. They barely have any food at all and they're in for the winter of winters. There won't be anyone left if they stay. Thus it's an irrelevant question to ask, whom rules. On top of that, there is both wildlings and white walkers. GRRM usually portrays the petty politics and fight for power yet then adding another layer on top of the story making fight for power meaningless.
For a Kingsguard analysis series, perhaps use "Changing of the Guards," since Bob Dylan generally gets better the more recent cuts you listen to. MInus the Christmas album of course
Now why is Lady Dustin so prominent here? Book 5 devotes an entire chapter to her and theon talking about how she feels about the Starks (hates them). And she goes far out of her way to go visit the crypts at Winterfell, WHY?
Lady Dustin hated Ned Stark but she had a thing for his big bro Brandon. She hated Ned for getting her husband killed at the Tower of Joy and not returning his body to her. So I don’t know if that hate extends to Ned’s kids. She might have wanted to go to the crypts to see Brandon’s resting place.
@@andrewward5891 That's amazing. Not the story, but that I used to care about all this. Martin's never finishing the story, the TV series is the last word, and nobody likes that ending, including me, I think I'll let the whole thing die the deserved death. Don't care about Targaryens not watching that, its nothing but a warmed over back-story that Martin or whoever chose to attempt to bring to life because of dragons and stuff. Nobody really cares about the characters they want to see dragongs burning things once in a while.
Some explanations are quite difficult to believe. First, make the great hall roof colapse is far more difficult do the same in the stable because of the height and the number of people 24/7 inside the great hall. Secondly, missing swords just mean that "someone" removed them. Not Bran and his brother. Moreover, 2 soldiers were with Lady Dustin when she went to the crypt (and therefore know where the entrance is). Apart from that, it's seems obvious that Ramsay kill the Frey. He is the only one with a real reason to do so. (Sorry for bad english)
Regarding Roose sending out the Freys and the Manderlys, I wouldn't say he's "ejecting" them from Winterfell and hoping they all die in the snow. His priority is still Stannis, so he should be sending them out with the intent of defeating the Baratheon forces. I get that his hands are somewhat tied by Ramsay's murderous subplot, but if his closest allies the Freys have to get out there, and their obvious sworn enemies the Manderlys also have to get out there - why not send other houses too, or his own men? He needs to assure that Stannis is crushed, and also to keep the Freys from being backstabbed by the Manderlys... but he's doing neither! It's kind of telegraphed that the Manderlys will switch sides, assuring Stannis's victory at the lake, and destroying the Frey forces. Why would Roose ever risk such a disastrous outcome? Ramsay murdering Little Walder hasn't tied his hands _that_ badly.
loved the dedication note to Bran Vras...but... where's Lady Dustin? Oh and so much paralels between Ramsay, the Others and Craster that i have made a theory that Ramsay will sacrifice Walda's baby to them, bringing them south perhaps, what do u think P.J?
great video as always, but i think there's something that doesnt fit: why would Ramsay kill Roose just before the battle of ice? If the northmen changed sides, he will be only with the army of the Dreadfort, against Stannis and the all the other houses
WTF is Chad Sumerchild doing at Winterfell, is he fighting for Frey or Manderly? 2:51 in the video Is the big man in the greathelm secretly Hodor? The red surcoat behind him belongs to Blood Raven for sure. Need to investigate
In a Clash of Kings, at Harrenhal, Roose was reading a book which he then destroyed by placing it in the fireplace. He destroyed it in the presence of Arya. There has to be more to Roose's story than to be murdered by his bastard son - why would GRRM put that scene in A Clash of Kings if it wasn't going to be important later?
Me reading ASOIAF: “Yep, I’m right on top of this story.”
Me after watching a Preston video: “Wow, how did I miss that much detail?”
no hes crazy it all rides on their not being snow on bird if you dismiss the raven and letter being planned the whole thing falls apart
I skim read the books, now after watching these videos, I'm going to reread them.
More like "Did I read different books?"
The fandom had over 10 years to over analyse and reread till insanity
@@deactivated18 The video was published 5 years ago, I wonder how much the fandom has dug up since then.
There's an interesting parallel between Ramsay's jealousy and Arianne's. He's Roose's legitimised firstborn son and wedded to a Stark in Winterfell - it's quite likely genuinely Roose's plan for Ramsay to be the new Warden of the North, while Walda's baby will "merely" inherit the Dreadfort. But Ramsay can't shake the feeling that the Dreadfort - with its *de facto* proof of his legitimate Bolton status meaning more to him than a paper one - is the more important prize, and he'll gladly ruin Roose's plans (and probably kill him) to get it.
(The parallel being that Arianne rebelled against her father after learning that he intended for Quentyn to inherit Sunspear, not realising he had much bigger plans for her.)
good eye/mind/seeing that
nice one
👍👍👍
would also explain Walda's fear. Specifically fear, rather than 'shock'. You'd expect her to be shocked at learning Ramsay murdered Walder, but she's AFRAID. Why? Because for the first time she realises Ramsay's plan. Roose presumably told his wife he'd legitimise Ramsay, and that Walda's son wouldn't rule the North. She'd got used to that, content that at least her child would get the House seat, itself a considerable fief. Now she knows Ramsay won't even let that happen. Her child, if it's a son, is as good as dead before it's even born.
A video is uploaded and now my watch begins. It shall not end until
that epilogue where you say you may be wrong about half of it.
I shall ignore my wife and hold no conversations with my children.
I shall live and die by your upload schedule.
I am the viewer in the darkness.
I am the watcher on the sofa.
I pledge my subscription to Preston Jacobs, for this night and all the nights to come.
The Midnight Hour cute!
Hear his words, and bear witness to his videos
I just cringed.
For the Watch!
@@DNotzz I just cried. With joy
"Love Maester Tybald" at the end of the letter was a nice touch!
Damn they coulda used Preston on the prosecution at OJ's trial
The OJ Jurors weren't interested in reason or facts, which was the problem.
@@Mprator the oj prosecution is the textbook case for absolute shit trial law.
But the glove DOESN'T FIT!!!
@@squattingheads and thus they must acquit
hey, you guys realize that the reason that OJ got off is that Mark Furman admitted on tape that he frequently framed black people for crimes, right? you've heard of the Furman tapes before?
One thing you missed is Ramsay's falchion. He was brandishing it frequently in an earlier chapter and even used it to cut his pie but when it came to put Luton out of his misery Ramsay grabs a pike from a nearby soldier to do it.
The only reason Ramsay wouldn't go for the sword he loves brandishing so much is that he couldn't and the only reason he couldn't is because it could implicate him. Perhaps it was still covered in blood from the murder.
Vmac1394 He would've to be absurdly stupid to not clean his blade, and given the condition of LW's body he should've had plenty of time to do that.
@@LeohTheArcher exra blood on the hilt of a piece of flesh to stuck on it or it got damage
@@LeohTheArcher he's a high lord. And his squire is dead. He has no-one to clean it for him, so it hasn't been cleaned.
Khal Preston, moon of my life
It is known
My sun and stars
It is known
it tis known
The collapsing stable and poorly constructed roof, were because Ramsey burned down Winterfell, and when the invited all the Northern houses to Winterfell, they hastily made all new wood structures. They also commented that the front gate was poorly constructed as well.
Holy crap Chad Summerchild was at Winterfell? Chad= Benjen Stark confirmed.
Ivan Enfinger QUEEN IN THE NORTH XD
Ivan Enfinger pfft....not bloody likely.....u🚫cme
Ivan Enfinger itisknown
Chad Summerchild.... i hate you Chad....
You know? House Summerchild? It's on the Mander
wouldn't sending out only "stark loyal" houses encourage them to defect to stannis? especially the umbers. if you sent out the freys with them a defection seems less likely.
the freys will turn on ramsey too
Either way he's in danger.
@@leeroberts4850 The Freys will turn on Ramsay, maybe. But Roose is the one who sends them out. They won't turn on him. More importantly, the Freys wouldn't back Stannis. Stannis is far too likely to punish them for the Red Wedding. Why take that risk?
The problem for Stannis is also food shortage, if he sent disloyal Northern houses out and they fought, great Stannis is weakened and the Northern houses probably destroyed. If they defect to Stannis, Stannis now has even more mouths to feed.
@@MrCricketbuff but the northern houses wouldn’t just go do the dirty work since fake arya(Jeyne Poole)isn’t in the castle so the Bolton are fucked
every now and there i think. "man i haven't seen a Preston jacobs video in a while" and thats the day that he releases something. so thank you.
you should think that more often
I feel like Bolton’s have the most visibly large northern army. Mannerly has been gateheting strength and refugees from hornwood and white knife lands this plus having a city gives him at least 6000 men.
This helps me get through my ACL surgery. This and Percocet.
MOLLY PERCOCET
@@scapelife fuck it mask off
I don't know why but "A Frey in the Snow" has been one of my favorites. Thanks PJ!
I love the intro portraying these events in such a happy go get em attitude. No idea why, but the aesthetic of the intro just seems so perfect to me
Why doesn't Ramsay just send 20 good men to do the job in the books like he did in the show? Poor George getting caught up in all of these small details. Doesn't he know the fans want to get to the ball numbing action as quickly as possible so we can be SHOCKED ™ (SHOCKED ™ is a registered trademark of D&D LLC a subsidiary of HBO)? Who cares about intricate plot when you can experience DRAMA™. He needs to wrap up these boring side stories and get to the fire dragons fighting ice zombies already! Doesn't he understand that he is just Tolkein 2.0 and has to give the fans the fantasy epic they all want?!
Anyway, I think Preston is reading a bit too much into this. It's not like George has decades of experience writing crazy, conspiracy-laden, nuanced science fiction under his belt. He's obviously spending 25 years writing a run of the mill fantasy story that relies on all the tropes we've come to expect from the genre. Good thing I figured this all out by reading the GOT wiki and watching the HBO series otherwise I'd spend all my time reading into things.
I think he is giving far too much credit to Ramsay. I don't recall him doing anything particularly brilliant or intelligent compared to many other characters. He is shown to be cruel and ruthless...but we know that his father treats men as his playthings.
Jooooger 20 Goodmen King?
Brian Griffin Ramsey has pulled off at least four(albiet sloppy) plans so far. the millers boys, lady hornwood, identity swapping with Reek #1, bringing the Dreadforts host down on Ser Roderyk....all planned by Ramsey. all of which also kept in the game and advanced his status.
None of those are particularly brilliant and are actually problems. The miller boys were a short term solution that is causing more trouble than it solved. Destroying Ser Roderyk, at that moment, caused his father to need to make moves to say it was Ironmen. One of major reasons Little Walder had to die (and Big Walder needs to follow) is because they know it was Dreadfort men that burnt Winterfell. Back to Ser Roderyk...not hard to destroy an army that believes you are there to help them instead. Lady Hornwood...sloppy does not begin to describe that blunder. It nearly cost him his life, the only saving factor was that he was so baseborn that he could swap with Reek. Even then, Preston rightly points out, Lady Hornwood was loved and had many suitors...her former men are likely to slip a knife in Ramsay's back.
Ramsay is only still in the game because his father covered for him and the Northerners were busy in the South.
I enjoy reading the lengthy sub plot stuff. In case you haven't noticed real life is pretty much the same but with different context: I could write a story about you, when you get up and do whatever it is you do but that story becomes WAY more interesting when we add in family members and friends with their own ambitions, thoughts, actions and motivations.
Then to make it more interesting we form close relationships with some characters and distant relationships with others and see how your perspective and opinion on each other causes you to act in various ways, causing ripple effects that border on literary genius yet is just normal when dealing with human interaction.
One problem. Birds have really high body temperatures. So no, they don't get covered in snow, it melts. The raven had just arived
Preston's a sweet summer child, what does he know of winter, when the snows fall a hundred feet deep, when the sun hides for years and children are born and live and die, all in darkness?
Nigel Standing Escpecially swallows, coming from Antioch
Dropkick Chainsaw what do you mean? An African or European swallow?
while birds may have high core body temperature, they are also pretty good isolated, so preston is not necessarily wrong about that...
I agree it is a very visual argument, but I've never seen a bird covered in snow.
This whole scenario may just be my favorite of all your vids Preston.Thoughtful and coherent. Makes alot of sense.Some of ur theories are really out there and take huge leaps and reaches.This had none of those.Just solid thoughts.Thanks man.
I was sleeping
saw the notification on my phone
screamed and started watching
all hail Lord Preston of House Tinfoil
Douchebag
@@alonzoyoung187 ...relax.
I've been watching Preston for years now and always am pumped when I get that notification. he's my favorite ASoIaF UA-camr by far the best
PRESTON MY MAN!
Honestly this is the best analysis/crackpot theory you have ever done. I am wholly convinced; everything adds up and whilst being complex, the schemes are not over the top. It reveals that all parties are independent actors and work for their own goals. And that Ramsay is a schemer and not stupid at all was proven a number of times through his actions. Your work here actually convinced me to patreonize for the first time. Keep it up!
Greetings from Austria
"Love Maester Tybald." thought you could sneak that past us, did you? :P
The battle of Ice at Wintefell is the event I look most forward to if TWOW is ever released. I appreciate this series you're doung.
YAAASSS NEW VIDEO, just re watched the whole wolves and robins series and this popped up.
I just find it hard to believe that Roose would let Ramsey sceme against him and even kill him since Roose is very aware of Ramsey's opposition. In fact I'd rather expect Roose to kill Ramsey if he feels like he is a threat.
Either way I count on Roose having some kind of backup plan even if he couldnt execute his original one. But just naively leaving himself behind in a very vulnurable position just doesnt sound like Roose at all
I think you are overestimating roose, he knows Ramsey killed his first son yet he lets Ramsey live and even legitimizes him. Roose is a complete and utter idiot when it comes to Ramsey.
IT's probably the same reason Roose didn't kill Ramsey for killing his trueborn son. Because Ramsey is his on and Roose is against kinslaying.
Roose is getting old (he’s in his 50s) and Ramsey is his only living child. He tells Lady Dustin that he won’t live to see any kids he has with Lady Walda growing up to adulthood (assuming Ramsey doesn’t kill them first). So for better or worse Ramsey is Roose’s only heir which is why Roose tolerates Ramsey’s insanity and scheming.
Preston, your theories are objectively best!
The intro just puts a smile on my face!
I love the intro song and it's so fitting as well
"Only four people know about the entrance to the crypt - and it's a little strange that two of those four would be by the entrance to the crypt."
How much detail can one man fit in a work of fiction! Jesus Christ!!!!
Re-watching these theory videos just makes me all the more eager for the next chapter in Sweetrobins's Winds of Winter.
Amazing work Preston thoroughly enjoy a lot of your content.
Excellent video Preston! We always want more!
yes I was waiting for this. Thanks Preston Christmas came early
You are my light in the darkness preston :)
I wait for these videos like I'm waiting for a new episode of GoT! Absolutely love this channel and will definitely be becoming a patron.
Another great series dude, out of ALL the "Song of Ice and Fire" channels, Yours is my favorite! Too be honest I like BOOK Roose a lot, a very cold and calculating man, BUT Ramsey is a up-jumped sociopath and I CAN'T WAIT till he gets what is coming to him, it's gong to be SOOO amazing to read.....come on George, I know winter is coming, but we need it
I love that bob Dylan cover and this murder mystery series is fantastic good luck with the podcasts 2 they are also great. I'm loving the way that the ASOIAF Alex Jones is going at the moment :)
YES!! Please, do more analysis videos like this. It would be wonderful to see even a slightly higher ratio of analyses videos to tv show, winds of winter, and thousand worlds videos.
Housework is no longer a chore, with Preston Jacobs on in the background.
By the seven, it feels like I've been waiting so long for a new preston Jacobs vid
you're videos are the best man! I've really liked the ones youve been doing with red team review
Meh. Some people add water to single malt scotch too. Not for me, personally.
Victor E nice analogy lol
i love hearing Preston none scripted. Its great 2 look at the series in depth in the series that he does but hearing his opinions on the series more generally is a nice change, also the more relaxed setting makes it better 2 listen 2 while doing something else. UA-cam podcasts are so much better than radio now.
Joe Hunter fair point. I went back and listened to some, and it was really cool to hear P.J. thinking in real time. And the Red Team guy really isn't bad at all, he's just more animated than I'd like from my typical GoT pundits. He's like the wacky morning DJ on Rockin' Hot Kiss 99.8 Hot Kiss FM, whereas Preston is straight fuckin' business.
I've been waiting for this one, thanks Preston :)
Thanks for these videos Preston, eye opening as always
Just before bed, thanks Preston!
olskoolsm10 it's the middle of the afternoon Wtf lol
Jolly Cocks well let's put it like this: when the evening begins here, they have breakfast in Myr!
A+ content as always, Preston!
Very solid theory. I mean Ramsay responsible for child murder? haha, that does that make good sense. And I think your roof idea is spot on. The way the show handles that is absurd. It would have to be something more clandestine.
It would be interesting if Stannis's plan involves him taking the North and leaving a minimal army outside of Winterfell to ensure no travel in and out. He'd be laying siege without attacking the castle, it would be a nice parallel between now and the siege of Storm's End. He could take the North and the Bolton's wouldn't be able to stop him.
It would also mean all this inner turmoil within Winterfell would be more important in the long run, since they can't get out and their food is being exhausted and people are dying, tensions would rise. Through winter they would turn on each other, and the horror that is the Bolton's could be expanded into outright cannibalism to survive, showing us firsthand how monstrous and depraved they can be.
A truly terrifying sight as a climax for this plotline, instead of a typical battle in the snow, it would be the winds of winter taking hold as the literally eat each other alive.
Wouldn't the disloyal northerners just join up with Stannis if ejected? I get the general advantages if they didn't do this but it still feels like that's what they would do given the circumstances.
Agreed. It seems like any Northern house you toss out into the snow would likely join up with the Southron Lord, who is in open opposition to the guy who's blamed for killing the Young Wolf.
Emil Olivelöf it is a strong possibility, but you also have to take note that Stannis army is outside facing the elements while roose has winterfell as fortifications. It is alway easier to defend a location then to take it especially when the invading army isn't use to the climate/culture. So joining stannis dosen't promise victory plus a lot the lords going out still have family members being kept hostage.
It's true they might join Stannis, but then they would probably just die with him. At that point they would just be additional mouths to feed (the situation changes when Arya Stark escapes, but she hasn't at that point).
Juan Pablo Mina I agree they would probably die with Stannis but why even risk it? Roose has about a 2:1 advantage over Stannis in numbers, why make that a 1:1 if even only for a week until they presumably starve? Again, Roose thinks that Stannis is just about to attack him. Giving him more numbers right now would be the worst thing to possibly do.
Why even risk it? Because he hasn't enough food for everyone. If he can't feed them, how could Stannis? Sure, in a perfect world Roose wouldn't even be in Winterfell, but the storm happened.
Preston I fucking love you man, just keep making videos about anything... write a trilogy yourself whatever just keep it going man good work.
Preston if he had sent manderlys and umbers outside to fight and both were in fact plotting they would just join up with Stannis. By sending the Freys and Manderlys together the Manderlys are deterred from crossing to Stannis. And by keeping the umbers inside he also maintains them in line. actually the move that made sense was ejecting one force with questionable loyalty and one loyal, this way he makes sure no one crosses over.
i guess my whole question is why did Ramsay think Little Walder would tell anybody about the boys being alive? just a character flaw or everyone’s mounting interests in the crypts of winterfell?
He's planning on killing his father in the books, and that means if he wants winterfell, he has to kill anyone who knows Bran and rickon are alive. He's just playing it safe
I'm a simple man. I see a Preston Jacobs video, I drink my own piss.
CadaverJunky yes
CadaverJunky why?
CadaverJunky - riveting.
Patches
Which is easier to swallow?
~ 3:50 yeah, who doesn't know how birds flying in winter are basically snowballs bumping around...
You do such get work, love the videos(even if I may not agree with 100% of what you believe) I believe if even if I personally do not believe it, hearing other sides to something is always great(especially when the person is so knowledgeable.)
Its less about belief and than keeping an open mind while theorizing analytically about subtle relationships between overlooked details and anticipating twists on the horizon of the narrative with context to see the stories within the story below the surface.
Max Power Most of the time when I watch a Preston video I'm waiting for him to say something completely.oulandish and I just ditch the theory by then. But some theories of his, like this one, work extremely well within what's written. As an example I can point out the Dornish master plan series. I stopped watching after he started spouting the glass candle shit, but the stuff before it was pretty great.
Every genius has a little madness in them...lol That's why I said I don't always agree with what is said, but it's cool to hear theories I would never think of.
Perhaps the reason Ramsay is putting on his sword belt when coming into the hall is evidence that Ramsay changed his clothes.
Perhaps he was yawning *because* he'd been awake for hours. We don't just yawn when we wake up. In fact, I find myself yawning *more* when I've been up for hours, but am tired, rather than yawning a lot when I've *just* woken up (though I acknowledge I'm not everyone).
Ejecting the Freys would make the battle begin outside Winterfell. While ejecting northern men would cross over to Stannis.
Nice work on this one. I always forget about the Hornwood complication. Also I rewatched the '50k subs q&a' video on the weekend and PLEASE PLEASE go Full Preston and do a video on your theory about Tywin's soul now residing in Gregor's body??? That is just too awesome to keep to yourself. Thanks again 😊🤘🏻
Preston: "... that Bran and Rickon are alive."
My brain: *plays the Quentyn is alive theme*
Just gotta say, I love the intro
With most of GRRM's characters representing something: a struggle, a passion, etc. What do you think GRRM intends with Stannis?
"Stannis is pure iron, black and hard and strong, yes, but brittle, the way iron gets. He'll break before he bends."
A clue, perhaps...
Part of Stannis' arc is Donal Noye was wrong in the 'metal' assessment. Robert was actually iron and rusted when he wasn't beaten into a plow, to mix metaphors..
Stannis is sneakier than an old stump like Noye can imagine.
He might have been right about Renly, the least developed Baratheon, though
@@MRCKify The least developed - yet likely the best ruler of the bushel.
I'm liking the folk song intros you're doing.
I do believe Ramsay killed Little Walder but after LW somehow referred him as a bastard
Man I remember when all these song videos dropped. Good times they were.
That Watchmen inspired intro is great lol... makes me think the ending could go something like this:
Dany: Bran, wait! Before you leave... I did the right thing, didn't I? It all worked out in the end.
Bran: "In the end"? Nothing ends, Daenerys. Nothing ever ends.
Shoot not quite quick enough for 1st, awesomeness vid Preston love your analysis
Best bed time gift ever
The theory sounds solid but there's a few lingering questions...
Why is Big Walder still alive? To blame the Manderly? They would be blamed either way... Why not kill them both?
Why did Big Walder go along with this? As you pointed out in the last video, he could die... So he risks death and most likely sacrifice hundreds/thousand of frey men in exchange of? Removing the 38th heir to the twins? What's in it for him?
Or was it just the threats? So can we assume he told someone later on (a frey)?
And most importantly, why is Luton dead? To silence him? If he had to talk wouldn't it be done already? I mean, if commit murder and want to silence a witness, you have to do it BEFORE he's in contact with everyone you do not want him to talk to, right? But Luton was with everyone for at least a few minutes. If he didn't split the beans to Roose now, why would he do it later on? This is an extremely important matter. He would speak to Roose right away, or not at all, wouldn't he?
From Ramsay's perspective, either he's 100% loyal to him, or he isn't.
If he is 100% loyal, why kill him?
If he is not, why allow him to be with Roose, even if only a few minutes? That's incredibly stupid. Not to say that Ramsay is clever, but if he planned all this, why have Luton killed there and not kill him after Little Walder? And then kill Big Walder as well?
2 freys and a bolton dead, this REALLY points to the manderly (or any northern house, so it works).
Allowing Big Walder to speak in front of everyone, and giving 5 minutes to Luton to speak to Roose - had he been disloyal to Ramsay - seems an unnecessary risk. And Luton didn't talk to Roose, so why kill him, now rather than with Little Walder?
Something seems off.
This is what I think:
Allowing Big Walder to live makes it easier to throw the Manderlys and Freys against each other. If psycho Ramsay gave Hosteen his nephew's corpse and was like "the Manderlys did it", Hosteen probably wouldn't have bought it. Hosteen believes Big Walder not only because of his hatred for Wyman and the other Manderlys, but also because the accusations are coming from another Frey (Big Walder). As for what's in it for Big Walder, I'm guessing after he witnessed his much stronger and imposing cousin get butchered by Ramsay, he thought it would be in his best interest to stay alive and not get murdered as well. It was probably the threats. Also, sacrificing Freys might also be in his best interest, given they could also be ahead of him in the line of succession. He probably didn't tell anyone [if he did, the person he told this to would have probably refused to go out there (for good reason) and stirred up some undesired shit].
Luton being killed in the same place and at the same time as Little Walder would have been very suspicious, maybe even for a dumbass like Hosteen. Ramsay needed an excuse to kill Luton. Luton being fatally wounded in a heated scuffle isn't nearly as suspicious to the people watching, I believe, and it serves as an excuse. Why let him be around other people? Necessary risk? He probably threatened him as well, so he was probably pretty confident it would have taken him more than five minutes to tell someone.
That's what I think, anyway.
This is a Preston theory we're talking about - turn your brain off. Pretend you're watching the show.
I am not convinced about Luton being responsible either (though not convinced that it wasn't him either). But I do think that Ramsay giving the order makes sense. Wanting the Dreadfort is not only a practical matter for him. He obviously has some deep issues about his illegitimacy, and a fixation with wanting to be the official heir. I don't know if he plans to usurp his father yet, but I am certain than he plans to get rid of Fat Walda's child. Considering that the Freys support Roose through Fat Walda, they would obviously be opposed to that and pose a huge problem. It makes sense for him to try to get rid of them, or at least to strain their loyalty to his father and Fat Walda as much as possible.
For Luton. I think it could be the case that he's the one that tattled on Ramsey. Roose stated a belief that Ramsey's bastards aren't really his men. Ramsey did a stupid thing by killing Walder. Luton told Roose. Thus the argument. Ramsey instigates the fight. Gets Luton in the middle of it for revenge. Sends a message to his father.
I knew House Goodmen was part of the pact but House Summerchild aswell?
So good. Keep it coming.
favorite UA-cam channel by far, will you be tackling the ice dragon after the thousand worlds? Also, keep making videos with red team review they are epic.
Alisa I love those two doing a podcast. That's become my new favorite thing on UA-cam. red teams snarky sarcastic take and Preston book knowledge are a great match up. THEY should be doing the after thrones show on HBO go.
Anthony Lankford that would be savage. I love preston's "missing" series and his Chad summer child reviews for last season. I'm giving red team review another try. His excessive use of profanity is slightly annoying but I am enjoying the podcast.
Becky Finch yeah I agree with you about red team. He's kind of douchey and hates on other UA-camrs way too much (justifyable or not). Not to mention most of us in this comment section are more knowledgeable about asoaf than he is, which makes him look utterly clueless next to Preston.
Preston, a question about the North:
Wouldn't it be more fitting for GRRM to make all the squabble about "who's ruling the north" to be irrelevant. They barely have any food at all and they're in for the winter of winters. There won't be anyone left if they stay. Thus it's an irrelevant question to ask, whom rules. On top of that, there is both wildlings and white walkers.
GRRM usually portrays the petty politics and fight for power yet then adding another layer on top of the story making fight for power meaningless.
It is all meaningless, but it wouldn't be GRRMdark unless the major players only realized their folly when it was too late.
man that sucks. I was hoping this would be a longer set of videos. the northern plots are by far the best stories in ADwD. great job as always though.
Thank you so much for this!
Love the intro btw
For a Kingsguard analysis series, perhaps use "Changing of the Guards," since Bob Dylan generally gets better the more recent cuts you listen to. MInus the Christmas album of course
Good work, Detective Preston.
I dozed off halfway through, then Frey in the Snow Part 1 played right after, woke up 5 minutes into that and didn't notice for a while hahaha.
Now why is Lady Dustin so prominent here? Book 5 devotes an entire chapter to her and theon talking about how she feels about the Starks (hates them). And she goes far out of her way to go visit the crypts at Winterfell, WHY?
Lady Dustin hated Ned Stark but she had a thing for his big bro Brandon. She hated Ned for getting her husband killed at the Tower of Joy and not returning his body to her. So I don’t know if that hate extends to Ned’s kids. She might have wanted to go to the crypts to see Brandon’s resting place.
@@andrewward5891 That's amazing. Not the story, but that I used to care about all this. Martin's never finishing the story, the TV series is the last word, and nobody likes that ending, including me, I think I'll let the whole thing die the deserved death. Don't care about Targaryens not watching that, its nothing but a warmed over back-story that Martin or whoever chose to attempt to bring to life because of dragons and stuff. Nobody really cares about the characters they want to see dragongs burning things once in a while.
The opening sold me on the prior video, same happend again (Watchmen Flashbacks)
Some explanations are quite difficult to believe.
First, make the great hall roof colapse is far more difficult do the same in the stable because of the height and the number of people 24/7 inside the great hall.
Secondly, missing swords just mean that "someone" removed them. Not Bran and his brother. Moreover, 2 soldiers were with Lady Dustin when she went to the crypt (and therefore know where the entrance is).
Apart from that, it's seems obvious that Ramsay kill the Frey. He is the only one with a real reason to do so.
(Sorry for bad english)
Where do you think Barbrey Dustin is when all of this goes down?
Pulling a Tywin in Robert’s rebellion and waiting to join the winning side.
Great stuff as usual
Finally. Thanks Preston
This analysis is genius!
Regarding Roose sending out the Freys and the Manderlys, I wouldn't say he's "ejecting" them from Winterfell and hoping they all die in the snow. His priority is still Stannis, so he should be sending them out with the intent of defeating the Baratheon forces. I get that his hands are somewhat tied by Ramsay's murderous subplot, but if his closest allies the Freys have to get out there, and their obvious sworn enemies the Manderlys also have to get out there - why not send other houses too, or his own men? He needs to assure that Stannis is crushed, and also to keep the Freys from being backstabbed by the Manderlys... but he's doing neither! It's kind of telegraphed that the Manderlys will switch sides, assuring Stannis's victory at the lake, and destroying the Frey forces. Why would Roose ever risk such a disastrous outcome? Ramsay murdering Little Walder hasn't tied his hands _that_ badly.
Thanks Preston!
eyyy I appreciate I know it's hard to come up with good ideas. good looks on doing those podcast
loved the dedication note to Bran Vras...but...
where's Lady Dustin?
Oh and so much paralels between Ramsay, the Others and Craster that i have made a theory that Ramsay will sacrifice Walda's baby to them, bringing them south perhaps, what do u think P.J?
nice video love the intro song!
Just the video to get me through a hospital stay.
*sees Preston theory upload*
Bob Dylan song slaughtered
Thank You Preston
great video as always, but i think there's something that doesnt fit: why would Ramsay kill Roose just before the battle of ice? If the northmen changed sides, he will be only with the army of the Dreadfort, against Stannis and the all the other houses
Preston enters the Frey once more!
No wait, that doesn't sound right.
This... actually seems pretty darn plausible.
WTF is Chad Sumerchild doing at Winterfell, is he fighting for Frey or Manderly?
2:51 in the video
Is the big man in the greathelm secretly Hodor? The red surcoat behind him belongs to Blood Raven for sure.
Need to investigate
i honestly doubt that the northern lords would fight alongside the Frey's even if it was to dispose of the Boltons. but otherwise great video
In a Clash of Kings, at Harrenhal, Roose was reading a book which he then destroyed by placing it in the fireplace. He destroyed it in the presence of Arya. There has to be more to Roose's story than to be murdered by his bastard son - why would GRRM put that scene in A Clash of Kings if it wasn't going to be important later?