They are not. Not because people are stupid, but because, these so called 'mistakes' aren't mistakes. These are natural and perfectly rational response to situation. Every civilization does these before their demise because they go through the same approximate situations. The rulers don't get corrupt. Rulers are always corrupt. Examine closely and you'll see that Arnold's 'creative minority' are often more corrupt than the later 'self worshipping dominant minority'. It's just that the so called 'creative minority' has many 'lands to conquer' and expand their dominance, creating all the tales of glory. The later 'dominant minority' just doesn't have any room left to conquer. So, they 'conquer' their own people, give them the taste of what's was happening to those vanquished people they treated like animal so far.
Of cause we are not immune. But we have a new tool to keeping the leadership of our societies healthy in most of the west: democracy. If our leaders become irrelevant and if we are competent voters, we will get better leaders. This is an ongoing process in much of the EU. The US is another story. We also see post-truth elements in EU but nothing like D. Trump.
Same as every other form of government, democracy has its downsides. There is nothing that suggests that democracies are somehow gonna exist forever, people/countries change and though it seems hard to imagine now, but west might make 180 turn and turn into 1984 mode, or maybe no. What I'm saying is we don't know, nothing is given, and even thought democracies seem the best option right now, it is not guaranteed that this thinking will exist in future.
@@erenliebert4576 You know the largest problem with Democracy is? The problem is - what is Democracy in the first place? In practice it's the rule of parliament and bureaucracy. But then, how does it differs from feudalism? Far back in 2600 yrs ago, Cyrus the great ruled using his parliament and bureaucracy. If you're talking about election, we the masses can only vote for who gets party nomination. But do we has any control over who gets nomination? Then do we actually elect at all? The ideal definition says that - Democracy is the govt. of the people, by the people and for the people. But does even any sliver of that exists in reality? How's what exists in reality not a feudalism wearing a new vest?
I'm at the detachment faze. Constant incompetence by the ruling class makes it impossible to be enthusiastic about a society with no direction or ability to execute a winning plan.
I don't think the present dilemma of the countries of the global west is incompetence. I think it is a concerted effort to impose the WEFs Global Socialism. That is such a bad idea that it might be considered incompetence, but I do believe it is purposeful.
@@AL-ku1zqI think there's a basic misunderstanding of socialism, what the WEF is proposing is much closer to fascism, they want everyone controlled by the corporate elites. It will be a small club, and you won't be in it.
Purposeful or incompetence, doesn’t matter much at the end of the day. When you are responsible for the fate of hundreds of millions of lives, incompetence isn’t a defense to save your skin either way.
I'm 73 and am not about to give up and roll over. My conscience won't allow an abdication of social responsibility. I've carefully vetted JILL STEIN and am supporting her revolutionary platform in every way I can. Self-respect is critical to my well-being.
Exactly=We are currently in the last days of the Roman empire cycle. Next up the Greek city states ethos. Than the agrarian societies with a greater focus on simple living & a deeper connection to the earth as THE MOTHER. Of course the AGRARIAN AGE comes about after a huge population decrease.
Ironically, I think many in the current elites are trying to avoid this very problem by championing certain racial and sexual minorities as well as certain women. They do this at the expense of undermining the family and the traditions and customs of the society that these elites influenced by a radical egalitarianism see as "oppressive," but are necessary to coordinate and inspire most people in their daily lives. Without these informal means of social coordination and preserving the inspiring stories that give a culture a vision rooted in its past as it preserves it and extends it into the future, the society will gradually disintegrate.
This is one of the faults of Arnold's model. The elites are always self-worshipping dominant minority. It's just when there's no more land to conquer, or, not much market to win, etc, this self-worshipping dominant minority gets no way to grow their riches, and starts to 'conquer' their own people. Nothing else.
@@gwang3103Do you really think there is the same disconnect between the Chinese ruling cadre as there is with the Western equivalent, from polls, ~95% of the Chinese support their government and it's policies, maybe 40% support the policies of Westrrn governments?
Welcome to the West in 2024. Never thought id live to see its fall, but here i am in the thick of it. The grand sweep of history and of change is palpable today. Historians of the future reading this, we grew up in the greatest time to be alive, took it for granted, and squandered it.
Toynbee also held that Concentration of Wealth within the Ruling Class played a large role in Civilizational Collapse, with the Dynamic being that the Ruling Class would absolve themselves from the obligation to pay taxes, at the same time as most income would be in their own coffers. Therefore the Government would not be able to maintain the Public Infrastructures for Irrigation, Education or Defense against Barbarian Invasion. One example was given which sounds amazing, that in China the Ruling Class first absolved their Class of having to pay any taxes at all, and then the Political Leadership put in a policy that Taxes would fall exclusively upon the Property Owners not of the absolved Ruling Class. Then the Ruling Class went to the Tax Paying Property Owners with the proposition that they could sell their Land to the Ruling Class and the Ruling Class would Lease the Land back to them, so that NOBODY had to pay any Taxes. Nobody paying any taxes turned into a very significant problem, but the Ruling Class owning virtually everything was thought to make the consequences worthwhile, but as Toynbee pointed out, that no matter how wealthy the Ruling Classes became, they generally did not survive the Collapse of their Civilizations. Thumbs Up.
Monopolism - a societal ideology where the rule enforcing framework benefits a few at the cost of the rest - long term unsustainable. This happens because of 'our nature of being living beings' coupled with 'our societies always being based on a monopol on force' that is being captured by individual living beings. I will have to look into this Toynbee guy.
@@joansparky4439 Yes, Toynbee has the standing of being the most influential Historian in History. And, yes, thank you for the new term, that is, for me, that is, "Monopolism" where I'd always just referred to Concentration of Wealth. But keep in mind the Principle of Chesterton's Gate (that Institutions that we hold in doubt have probably come into being because they served a purpose). Concentration of Wealth results from an Accumulation of Wealth, that is, enough Wealth to invest is Trade, Industry, Roads, Infrastructures, Colonialism, Arts, Sciences, etc. In Europe one of the most significant driving engines for Accumulation of Wealth was the Institution of Primogeniture, that is, where the Estates would descend to the First Born Male Heirs, keeping Estates intact. Primogeniture wouild also encourage Second and Third Sons to go into the Church, or the Army, Law and Business. Britain became a Global Empire on the back of Primogeniture. But, yes, if we are worried of a Few Wealthy over Many Poor, well, why are we not blaming the propagation of poverty. Where are any institutions designed to discourage Propertyless People from breeding like rats. I( would have an Institution where people would need to pay for a License to have a Child the same way they buy houses, that a Mortgage would have to be taken out, so that when any child arrives at the age of 30 then he or she will be presented with a sizeable Annuity Income Account. Also, we can look at the Medieval Lawa and catch some hint of how they held down the Population of Poverty, that many Penalties in the Law were Capital, that they would execute Criminals for damned near everything (where we get the quaint phrase "Might as well be hanged for stealing a Sheep as a Lamb". Yes, even hunters poaching game birds or rabbits upon some Lord's Estate could get one hanged or shot dead on the spot. So, yes, our problem is not with Too Much Wealth, but with Too Much Poverty. The War on Poverty should be construed as being a War on the Poor, to keep their numbers down. Yes, the Law of Economics had been that a great many Poor would translate into Cheap Labor, but now with Machine Intelligence and Affordable Robotics, that Dynamic has come to its Sunset, and now the Magnitudes of the Poor are only a Risk for Uprisings of Anarchist Revolution, from both the Right (Fascism) or the Left (Communism).
@@leovolontReducing the numbers of the poor is indeed possible, as history shows, Earths population has increasingly grown wealthier and the gap between the wealthy and super poor has shrunk dramatically. However, this will often be a slow process and eradication of the lower class will have to mean the eradication of the very real genetic and cultural circumstances that leads to within country poverty. I.e genetic disability or abusive households. Absolving poverty completely in this case is almost impossible unless you want to adopt very archaic policies. You’ll likely have better success by maximizing the economic efficiency of the middle class and somehow reducing the need for the “destined to be poor” to not participate in the workforce at all.
@@COLDoCLINCHER37 Medieval Systems have used Religious Monasteries to regulate population. Monasteries would catch the population overflow, and then, with the rules against procreating, Poverty would die without leaving a trace. On my Channel, one of my best series of videos (to be found in my Playlist Menu, was the series "the Material Mechanics of Spirituality, in which (in the last or second to last video in the series) I explain that the Monasteries were probably not primarily intended to be Religious Retreats at all, but had been functionally intended to be Orphanages for illegitimate children, and catch alls for those in Disgrace, or those facing Poverty. Really, as Machine Intelligence and Robotics create more and more unemployment, we will need to rethink the Institutions of Monastic Celebacy, but not in strictly Religious Settings, as one can build up a type of Religious Dovotion, for Golf, Sports, Boating, Riding, Arts, or whatever... the idea is to give unemployed people something that will fascinate them and keep them busy, and keep them from having babies. Not so much Concentration Camps as Summer Camps that go year round.
@@leovolont Possibly. But one must realise is the massive administration constraints that may prevent this from being successful. Atleast In the manner you described. To truly prevent the poor or I'd prefer to say the "destined to be poor" families or genetic lineages from procreating you must do so in a way that is self autonomous. In which the destined to be poor actually revel in the idea of no children, and unserious relationships and most important the lack of need of a nuclear family. Unfortunately, this is seen more frequently in highly developed and intelligent countries such as East Asia, mainly South Korea which now has a birth rate of less than 0.8 an order of nearly 2 below the recommended societal replacement level. Knowing this, to create an autonomous sense of need of or lack of desire to procreate we must try and replicate the societal conditions that have resulted in such low infertility within East Asian communities and somehow actively and purposely propagate these depressive, unfamily friendly conditions within the masses of not so much the poor, but the people and genetic lineages who are destined to be poor or I should say more likely to be complacent in poverty as genetic and cultural determinants of poverty are not always easily predictable. Its possoble, and weve already seen real world examples existing right now, we just need to find a way to Propogate such conditons without any resistance from the poor. Simply distracting them with enjoyances of modern life such as sport and, s3x may work in the begining, however, because of the innate human desire for novelty, every addiction whether good or bad will need to be reinforced with more extreme supports of that addiction in question. Look up the human dopamine response in the brain and why addicts continuously seek new and desires that fulfil their crave for dopamine spikes. Also I apologise for spelling and grammatical mistakes as I'm typing this on phone.
If you live in the collective West, your geopolitical rivials are convincing you (and your fellow citizens) things are worse off than they actually are. In reality, you and your luxuriant life would be the envy of virtually every human living before you.
@@BuddyLee23You (and many) only believe that technology means a thriving culture because you have been told so by that very society - it’s actually the opposite.
The kiss of death for any civilization is the feeling that they've arrived - that they can sit back and enjoy the fruits of their past successes. I see this attitude all over the place these days.
All work and no play makes Jack a dull boy. If we are continuallt breaking eggs, but never get an omlette then what's the point? It becomes all wretch and no vomit. When we're continually promised the promised land, and it never arrives, then why not kick back? Let some other nation do the work and then go through the same redundant cycle. "To repeat tje same actions and expect different outcomes is the definition of insanity" Why cling to what has become outdated? Why not enjoy the fruits of the moment where things peak? If you don't then who else will? Thank you ancestors! Cake is very nice! Nom! 😋🎂😊
Perhaps we in the West are witnessing the collapse of our way of life, and therefore we will have to make difficult choices to survive. Either we will adhere to the Asian way of life, or our elites will lead us by default into complete insignificance. Time will tell.
Wrong that’s actually a mark of a rising one.When the average citizen can sit back and enjoy the fruit of their labor. A collapsing one is where the youth won’t even attempt to work or make society better because no matter what they do they can’t get ahead, because they know the power structures set them up to lose.
This happened in China for thousands of years too. It was called the dynastic cycle. There would be a corrupt empire, then rebellion and revolution, the new emperor would be good for awhile, then his descendants would get worse and worse, until another rebellion and revolt and then over and over and over again. Typically, each dynasty would last from about 150-400 years.
Time seems compressed today: we've gone from the "universality" of education, all included, to an expensive education for an elite few that can afford it. in less than fifty years. WE talked in HS about money controlling politics when it was a 1,000 donation. It's now a 100 MILLION dollar donation, in less than fifty years.
In Ancient China regime change ensued after it lost the "Mandate of Heaven." In Britain the time scale has become compressed, so that after 10 - 15 years Mr Murdoch withdraws his mandate and a new government takes over.
The opposite is true in the US. The zombies calling themselves Americans have a bizarre admiration for those that abuse them, kinda like the Stockholm syndrome.
Perhaps we in the West are witnessing the collapse of our way of life, and therefore we will have to make difficult choices to survive. Either we will adhere to the Asian way of life, or our elites will lead us by default into complete insignificance. Time will tell.
Civilizations die when those of sound mind waste their time thinking and analyzing things that are self evident instead of taking action against the forces eating away at society.
@@richardc861 Even more of a reason why taking action instead of talking is needed so much. Expecting evil to become less evil over time is pure folly. Things will get a LOT worse.
@@khatack yes, my concern though as you state, the time for talking and dialogue seemed wasted on society in the west now and any action imo will lead to violence. Almost feels like we are just waiting now for a some event to light a match and violence is the order of the day. Secondly, I think apathy is rife in the west.
In the eyes of modern powerful people, meritocracy is just a codeword for plucking the genius from the working class, putting it to work for their own ends, and leaving everyone else in the dust. This is the US model for society in a nutshell.
Societies function when everyone mutually benefits, and die when the needs of the many are subordinated to the greed of the rulers. Though the slow decay and decline this brings is usually punctuated by a crisis that the now-enfeebled society can't withstand anymore, which brings on a sudden and rapid collapse.
While I would like your comment to be true, many, if not most, civilizations are made up of the exploited majority and a small elite ruling class. A large powerful middle class is a relatively new development.
My late dad was a historian and a fervent admirer of Toynbee's works. This analysis of civilisation is so simple and so true. You do not need fancy stuff to figure things out. A competent responsible meritocracy like the "Founding Fathers" in the USA gives way to an incompetent undeserving Inheritocracy. This Inheritocracy will have to use force to keep its grip on things as it becomes no longer relevant to the needs and concerns of the majority of people or the " working moral majority of people"?! Yet new factors are shaping civilizations now, which are technology, automation and hyper-productivity! Their impact is left to be seen.
Read, "Rise Of The Meritocracy" or, "The Tyranny of Merit" by Young and Sandel respectively. The Framers weren't creating a, "meritocracy" (the term would have no meaning in their times). This is a, "noble lie" or, "Veblenism" that we use to justify inequality which comes as a natural result of the functioning of a free and open society. It's worth noting the Framers were, "elitist" in the classicists sense. The vast majority of Americans weren't invited to vote in the state assemblies after the war. The Framers were influenced by Tacitus and Aristotle. They didn't view, "democracy" the way we do. They felt responsible for governing and educating, "those who could not govern and educate themselves" which in their times was the great majority of people. There are deep reasons why compulsory education isn't, "unconstitutional" in the United States The sentiments of a great many while being worth examining are usually in the mode of, "despite things being much, much better in the past I feel humiliated by envy and the greed that comes from coveting the things and status of others." Deplorable poor people that want to hurt others out of envy and greed aren't idealists or revolutionaries. They're bitter criminals-- and just like the Founders said, "it's not hard to put down mobs." Look at the Paris Commune, the French Revolution, and the failed German revolution in 1918. We can put mobs down. We must address why they exist in the first place. This was Jefferson's advice. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Rise_of_the_Meritocracy education.nationalgeographic.org/resource/voting-rights-throughout-history/ www.nationalguard.com
Anyone who prefers meritocracy over democracy either hasn't thought things trough or is an elitist. All meritocracies are elitist societies ultimately ruled by those who determine what the merits are (and not by the meritorious). If that doesn't create a divide between the ruling class (who set the goals by determining what the merits are) and the commoners (who have to be meritorious by acting like the ruling class prescribed) I don't know what will. Edit: and by the way, having a lot of money can be a merit too, it certainly is in the US.
@@JerehmiaBoazMerit, or proficiency in a specialism is easily determined by rigorous examinations. These have been dumbed down, and also replaced by coursework which is open to fraudulent submissions because they are not done in controlled conditions. People can get others to do the work for them. Moral merit is another matter entirely. Regardless of technical merit, it seems that most of our rulers are motivated entirely by greed and the lust for power. Lack of technical merit means that even the "good" people are easily turned into useful idiots by clever self interested people because they lack knowledge and critical thinking ability. The decline in my 69 year lifespan has been incredible to watch.
@@ericrawson2909 Merit isn't defined as proficiency in a specialism at all, it means possessing a superior amount or degree of an attribute worthy of praise or approval. Greed can be a merit too, for instance in Ayn Rand's philosophy (that's where Gordon Gekko's "greed is good" speech comes from).
@@JerehmiaBoazIf the merit is determined by feedback from the populace, as it is in China, that clears up the idiocy of Rand's definition of merit. Merit in the context of a ruling body must have feedback from the masses to determine what qualifies as meritorious, only that which benefits the majority qualify. It seems to have worked there so far, and it did, to whatever extent in the West until the greed of the elites and their wealth became sufficient that it no longer matters, just like it did in Rome.
Nothing is permanent. Just like the Great Greek and the Mighty Roman civilization collapsed, the same would happen to Western civilization as well. It's just the law of nature. Accept and fade away. It's too late now to save anything.
@@urrywest Nope. We shall hobble along and eventually supplant the weak, stifling chaff. It's coming, change is blowing in the wind. Does it bother you that some clamor for the fight against their neighbor rather than some propagandist created "other".
@@EdAckley-j5v What I think you mean is that these societies that are in decline will eventually be over run by those who have stronger economies... That the cycle of imprialism will continue... I am not sure of that because China dosn't really have a recient history of imprialism and population growth rates in the east don't have the power to over run us.
And bullshitters produce bullshit Hard times kill people. Strong men create autocracies. Good times make people happy. Weak men realize that all men are weak and need society to thrive.
We're at the weak men stage right now. So I guess hard times are coming. Toward the end of the Roman empire, many men had also become very effeminate and morally and psychologically weak, like today's men.
@@miamiman196 We're not the roman empire and our civilization isn't collapsing just because the US is losing its hegemony. Western civilization was just fine before the US rose to dominance and it will be just fine after the US has waned.
@JerehmiaBoaz I did not mention the US at all. I am talking about Western civilization. The imposition and imitation of Western culture have been a civilizing factor throughout the world. Why did you think I was referring to the US? The US is just one of many countries in the "Western World."
Thanks for producing this short explainer video on Toynbee's still relevant concepts of historical cycles in civilizations. I devoted an entire chapter of my 2022 book, Words From the Dead: Relevant Readings in the Covid Age, to Toynbee's brilliant book, A Study of History. Required reading.
The word "Merit" ignited so much analysis and passion rightfully so. How do we define "Merit" then? I would say: Merit is integrity and a real sincere concern about the common good, backed by competence. Obviously, a successful civilization cannot leave its fate neither to the mob in the name of democracy, nor to an unscrupulously, tyrannical, exploitive self-serving "elite"! There must be an optimal way to serve the common good.
The definition of merit depends on your goal. You can’t attempt to define merit. Merit is subjective, which is why we leaned on democracy in the first place. We can’t agree on what even IS merit.
I read "the rise and fall of civilization" by Toynbee 44 year ago. I could not believe him at the time that this could happen to us. I taught we are much too advance and rational being to fall like that. Than, I watch the Olympic opening ceremony in Paris 😳😧😱. We are f......
@@markdavis7397 they openly disrespected and made fun of "The Last Supper" on an International platform like the Opening ceremony of the Olympics, all of this in the disguise of ''Freedom of Expression''!
Yes, he was correct that there are definitely patterns of an evolutionary nature which repeat throughout historical rises and falls of societies. A society is in it's lethal final stage when one part wants to destroy the other part without awareness or care for the annihilation of the whole.
This is a fascinating and important conversation. Having said that something others have noted and that I have read/heard/seen is that societal collapse can be attributed to numerous civilizations throughout history but the decay and collapse express through similar root causes. Gross inequality and a dissafected population is a major sign that bodes ill but causes to collapse often come from military conflict, an overextended economy, and environmental factors and then they in turn precipitate other fractures like famine, war, and a economic depression that together overwhelm a civilization. Props to the podcast Fall of Civilization BTW. That podcaster is a master storyteller when it comes to the subject.
And the huge influx of barbarians who overwhelmed Roman culture. Historian Peter Heather makes this point. We are seeing this today in America and Europe with the influx of people from the Third World. But the elites are not only doing nothing about this invasion but are championing those who are undercutting our folkways and traditions as did the ancient barbarians in Rome en masse.
We have a new tool to keeping the leadership of our societies healthy in most of the west: democracy. If our leaders become irrelevant and we are competent voters, we will get better leaders. This is a dominating process in most of the EU.
@@SynthwaveDuck This is an observation. The US is an example of a weakening democracy because of voters mislead by the rich (to simplify things a lot).
How civiliztions are built - Good ideas and philosophy How civilizations are destroyed - Bad ideas and philosophy To save the world is the simplest thing in the world. All one has to do is think.- Dr. Leonard Peikoff
FEMINISM! Thanks ladies and don't come crying back to us as the collapse gets worse. You showed precious little gratitude for the deference and extreme consideration we have shown you for 50 years. Finally enjoy the true equality.
No, it’s when a nation rejects God, he sends their enemies to destroy that nation. Read about ancient Hebrews when they were punished by God every time they rejected him.
Toynbee writes more straightforward or conventional history with academic hypotheses, whereas Spengler has written a kind of philosophical or spiritual interpretation of history.
Take a look at the Achaemenids. They had competent statesmen like Cyrus and Darius at the beginning who created an effective government, infrastructure, economy, military, etc. At the end, the ruling class became engaged in luxuries thereby raising taxes, corruption, and the idea that Persia was invincible. They got whacked by a kid.
They got whacked because their army would rather flee than stand and fight bravely. Why fight for rulers who live lifestyles vastly different to yours? The same question applies today. Who would fight to protect their own country when it's rulers are nothing like its people?
@@Dawah_Help a "soldier" i.e. a dumbass. one warrior is worth 100 soldiers. tell a person he can kill the ones giving away the colored ribbons and watch him become one.
I would suggest that Toynbee ‘borrowed’ his hypothesis from Polybius. Though Toynbee has a much larger data set of cultures to which he has tested Polybius’s initial anacyclosis theory.
Your video suggests that a civilization - any civilization - would do well to deliberately nurture the creativity that exists among the common people by fundamentally restructuring their educational system to ensure that the creative minority that is in power is continuously infused with new blood so that it remains innovative. That said, I won't hold my breath that this will happen in the West, and in particular the United States.
What do you suggest the reform to be? I recently read of Dorothy Tillman who received a PhD at age 17. I believe the education structure can be much more efficient because of Dorothy's example. However, home life (parents) are most important and beyond the education industry's power.
@@tyranmcgrathmnkklkl School reform cannot be one person’s solution. But your question deserves a response. Regardless of their number, it would help if most of the professionals charged with developing the reform strategy are parents; if some of the developers are actual “strategists” and some current or former teachers or technical education instructors; if the reform approach calls for and genuinely takes into account parental input; if at the end of each academic year administrators are required to formerly rate and document the learning-instilling aptitude of their teachers; and, as you seem to suggest, if the reform strategy requires ceasing to involve sanctioning those in authority to proclaim or enact edicts that authorize the mindset of the many annulling the exercise of individual agency of the one (the student) and depositing the delegated consent of the few (the student’s family) into school trash cans. With regards to the actual reform strategy, as an 80-year old, lifelong student, as a former teacher and retired civilian Federal government employee, and as a parent in progress my input would suggest that the fundamental lesson the reform plan developed and implemented must deliver to and instill in students is that everything in life, including life itself, is simultaneously a system and part of a system (a subsystem) and that all systems - organizations (e.g. civilizations, societies, governments, businesses, the observable universe, school districts, etc.) as well as organisms (i.e. individuals) - are “open structures”, and therefore exposed to the risks and opportunities generated by the environment in which they function and compete. Of course, the developers of the strategy would have to be required to demonstrably prove that the newly reformed system actually achieves preparing students to systemically analyze the risks and opportunities existing in their functional/competitive environment so that their lifelong problem solving capacity effectively delivers systemic-strategic solutions to the problems they encounter in life and must either face down or leverage to their competitive advantage in choosing to settle for “fated fate” or to conscientiously achieve “by design destiny”.
@@Doood692 Your comment suggests that you believe you know what answers libertarianism provides to exactly what problems. All I can say is that nobody understands the problems or the potential answers - like libertarianism - in exactly the same way.
People always think they live at the unprecedented end of times. In the U.S. for example, Americans have predicted the republic’s impending decline almost as soon as the republic began. So when can we tell if a civilization is actually nearing the end?
This by far is the greatest thing I’ve watched in the last couple months!!!😮❤🤔. This basically explains everything. The ruling elite primarily the liberals, Democrats Hollywood, academic modernist, etc. have lost complete creativity and degenerated into despotism and decadence. So I know the future of my country USA
You ignore the executive elite that has begun to resemble a Soviet-style nomenlatura that lives like aristocrats. Its current efforts seem to be lobbying corrupt politicians, privatizing the public sector on the cheap, and sticking customers with higher costs to do anything. You ignore also the efforts of wealth-cult clergy who sere themselves while inculcating fear and debasing formal education. At least as much fault lies with the Right as with the Left.
Read it myself. You are quite right. A most excellent introduction to the cyclical theorists of history. 😢 I believe an earlier work by Parvini reviews the elitist school of political theory.
Yeah this is the first time in history that , when the american empire collapses . The whole world will be dragged down whit it . As before this was never the case whit the empires before america .
the first blow is suicide and then by murder. If you look at WRE in the later days ,you can tell by the historical writings of people of the times and the actions of famous people in those latter days that essentially one half of the populus has completely given up on 'Roman values' or even Romanness itself and largely the term was a catch phrase for things within the provinces of the empire not associated with its foundation, its story, its history or myth but rather a tacked on conglomeration of the various peoples the Romans had occupied recently, or had recently been pushed into the empire via migration, and you can see the Roman culture took on various aspects of these cultures in significant ways EG: adoption of military aesthetic, tactics and the warriors themselves in the foederati system as well as the cultural social and demographic changes they brought on very quickly led to a suicide and a murder, the murder was done by those of Roman title who enriched themselves using the foreign fighters and their influence culturally and systematically (within the roman system) to destroy the opposing side leading to the culture only being operated by strongmen, warlords and various foederati generals and it is very self evident that the actual army itself was made up of the same demographic in which they were fighting, that within itself is a betrayal of the base (the actual romans or latins) I believe when he refers to the upper class and lower class socially and culturally being un anchored from each other that appears to be where we are. Arnold Toynbee seems interesting in regards to the topic.
I’m not a historian, I don’t fancy myself an intellectual or leader either. However, I know better than to think that we are any better in 2024 than the people alive hundreds and hundreds of years ago at the collapse of Rome. We copied their homework word for word and expected a different ending. Human nature is human nature, our “progressive attitudes” are just a facade that very easy living has allowed to spread. We are still human just like ancients.
My only problem is how do we determine that a civilization has ended? A joke goes “the Roman Empire ended in the year that you believe the Roman Empire ended”. I think the words “5uicid3” or “murd3r” (helping the algo) offer too much suddenness to a process that is more slow and transformative.
The decay and degeneracy is slow , I agree, but once a tipping point arrives, the collapse and loss of power is palpable. The success of a civilization is the seed of its eventual downfall.
I think that exterior conditions are much more influential than he projected and I would rate them number one . Look at the Irish , how foreign invasion stopped the internal development of society and directed toward something else .
"Some nations don't fall. They capitulate. Rome wasn't conquered, someone opened the gates...." - from a song I wrote called 'Hard Times'. There may be some parallels intended.
Interesting perspective. In “Hope and Tragedy A History Of The World In Our Time” by Carroll Quigley, he writes that civilizations tend to collapse because they cannot carry the old ideals and principles that established themselves as prosperous in the face of new challenges as effectively, so they abandon them, and subsequently succumb. The lesson there is never betray what makes you great, for certain death will follow.
No Wonder, THIS GREAT MINDS, aré needed to understand the world We live In...to know what to do, AND create, through imagination, what We should do...or...LOSE EVERYTHING...
The hubris of the ruling elite combined with other factors, like disease that does not discriminate, ecological disasters that had been brewing for years and ignored or misunderstood and the ambitions of foreign rulers along with rebellions from the masses, contribute to a civilization's downfall. Toynbee was astute about the history of civilizations. And of course we have Chaos Theory, which states that the larger and more complex a system is the more likely it is to either fail or break apart.
Sound insights. Also what is implied in some of the images in the video: A lack of sexual restraint creating a licentious social climate. Anthropologist J.D. Unwin found in his *Sex & Culture* that material prosperity over time leads to a turn from channeling sexual interests in the traditional family to other forms of sexuality that undermine the family, and hence the society.
@@stevenhenry5267 LOL, if you disagree, then spell out what you disagree with in particular and then support your points of disagreement with evidence. I have evidence and you have zero at this point.
Unwin found an interesting corellation. Sexuality is one of the many contributing factors to societal change. Articles about polyamory's happy participants have appeared in my feed, alluding to a prosperous time for society. Now I anticipate the downfall. The rise and fall.
@@tyranmcgrathmnkklkl The prosperity is what leads people to relaxing their moral standards since they are more insulated from the negative effects of their moral drift. When the family degenerates then people don't invest as much in their children nor are they as likely to provide them with an emotional foundation for their future. Alternatives to heterosexual sex within a loving marriage worsen this problem. Now with birth control and abortion, people have a lot fewer children, which is leading to a population implosion in the West and other developed nations. Those who have more sex partners prior to marriage are much more likely to divorce leaving the children damaged in the process. When people do have children, an increasing number do not have in tact families to provide a stable home for their children. These children are much less likely to be well-cared for in emotional terms so that the succeeding generation is less interested in replicating their home life and are less able to bond intimately with anyone- see John Bowlby's Attachment Theory. The combined lack of investment in the next generation in terms of education and training as well as the lack of steady emotional intimacy worsen the chances of proper development of the next generation. As a result, we can see how a tribe or a civilization deteriorates within 3 generations to the point of no return as Unwin found in his research.
I'm not sure there have been similar cases in the past to what's happening now: unlimited mass migration that can be stopped by force, but which is instead encouraged and tolerated by the ruling class.
I met Toynbee when I was very young. He was a big man with a big handshake. It was in a symposium with some of the greatest minds and I had the liberty to also shake hands with Einstein and Tagore. I also met my future wife that night. Had a wonderful woohoo in the hotel that night 💞💋💘
One problem is that the 'thing' that makes a civilization rise--the successful handling of a major problem--becomes their static response to future difficulties that require different responses. One example of this is Sparta, the state that Toynbee called 'a civilization within a civilization'. It took the idea of city-state unity to a whole new level. But when faced with the problem of declining population needed to be addressed, they could not accept the entry of non-Spartan families into the traditional stock of Spartans. When one king, Agis, tried to incorporate some thousands of Perioki (misspelled?), he was assassinated, with his own mother's approval. So it comes down to civilizations not being able to adjust to different, unique challenges, as they stubbornly cling to outdated modes of response.
I've heard of Toynbee before in connection with the Sumerians and he's a great historian and thinker. What this video describes is happening now in western civilization today.
If Toynbee and Spengler had lunch together...they would drink a bit too much and get into a fistfight. I always considered Toynbee as an optimistic Spenglerian...risky to start a video with a quote from an optimist
Civilizations die because they refuse to adapt. What works at one stage doesn't work at another, and if you try to fight the next war with the approach of the last war, as it were, you lose. Not because they lose their way and change.
How? Massive inequity in the distribution of wealth, political corruption, failing checks and balances, declining education amongst the working and middle class, and then the rise of a charismatic wannabe dictator.
Of course every civilization also tends to believe they are immune from making the same mistakes of past civilizations.
They are not. Not because people are stupid, but because, these so called 'mistakes' aren't mistakes. These are natural and perfectly rational response to situation. Every civilization does these before their demise because they go through the same approximate situations.
The rulers don't get corrupt. Rulers are always corrupt. Examine closely and you'll see that Arnold's 'creative minority' are often more corrupt than the later 'self worshipping dominant minority'. It's just that the so called 'creative minority' has many 'lands to conquer' and expand their dominance, creating all the tales of glory. The later 'dominant minority' just doesn't have any room left to conquer. So, they 'conquer' their own people, give them the taste of what's was happening to those vanquished people they treated like animal so far.
The one thing we learn from history is that we don’t learn from history…
Of cause we are not immune. But we have a new tool to keeping the leadership of our societies healthy in most of the west: democracy. If our leaders become irrelevant and if we are competent voters, we will get better leaders.
This is an ongoing process in much of the EU. The US is another story. We also see post-truth elements in EU but nothing like D. Trump.
Same as every other form of government, democracy has its downsides. There is nothing that suggests that democracies are somehow gonna exist forever, people/countries change and though it seems hard to imagine now, but west might make 180 turn and turn into 1984 mode, or maybe no. What I'm saying is we don't know, nothing is given, and even thought democracies seem the best option right now, it is not guaranteed that this thinking will exist in future.
@@erenliebert4576 You know the largest problem with Democracy is? The problem is - what is Democracy in the first place? In practice it's the rule of parliament and bureaucracy. But then, how does it differs from feudalism? Far back in 2600 yrs ago, Cyrus the great ruled using his parliament and bureaucracy. If you're talking about election, we the masses can only vote for who gets party nomination. But do we has any control over who gets nomination? Then do we actually elect at all?
The ideal definition says that - Democracy is the govt. of the people, by the people and for the people. But does even any sliver of that exists in reality? How's what exists in reality not a feudalism wearing a new vest?
I'm at the detachment faze. Constant incompetence by the ruling class makes it impossible to be enthusiastic about a society with no direction or ability to execute a winning plan.
I don't think the present dilemma of the countries of the global west is incompetence. I think it is a concerted effort to impose the WEFs Global Socialism. That is such a bad idea that it might be considered incompetence, but I do believe it is purposeful.
It’s beyond incompetence, it’s deliberate retardation.
@@AL-ku1zqI think there's a basic misunderstanding of socialism, what the WEF is proposing is much closer to fascism, they want everyone controlled by the corporate elites. It will be a small club, and you won't be in it.
Purposeful or incompetence, doesn’t matter much at the end of the day. When you are responsible for the fate of hundreds of millions of lives, incompetence isn’t a defense to save your skin either way.
I'm 73 and am not about to give up and roll over. My conscience won't allow an abdication of social responsibility.
I've carefully vetted JILL STEIN and am supporting her revolutionary platform in every way I can.
Self-respect is critical to my well-being.
As Voltaire writes... "History never repeats itself. Man always does."
Mark Twain said: "History never repeats itself, but it often rhymes."
Human nature does not change.
Exactly=We are currently in the last days of the Roman empire cycle.
Next up the Greek city states ethos.
Than the agrarian societies with a greater focus on simple living & a deeper connection to the earth as THE MOTHER.
Of course the AGRARIAN AGE comes about after a huge population decrease.
@@bitbucketcynic True but human culture does change.
@@jensstergard9380 Only apparently.
He might well have been describing the modern elites of the west
Ironically, I think many in the current elites are trying to avoid this very problem by championing certain racial and sexual minorities as well as certain women. They do this at the expense of undermining the family and the traditions and customs of the society that these elites influenced by a radical egalitarianism see as "oppressive," but are necessary to coordinate and inspire most people in their daily lives.
Without these informal means of social coordination and preserving the inspiring stories that give a culture a vision rooted in its past as it preserves it and extends it into the future, the society will gradually disintegrate.
He is
Or China today.
This is one of the faults of Arnold's model. The elites are always self-worshipping dominant minority. It's just when there's no more land to conquer, or, not much market to win, etc, this self-worshipping dominant minority gets no way to grow their riches, and starts to 'conquer' their own people. Nothing else.
@@gwang3103Do you really think there is the same disconnect between the Chinese ruling cadre as there is with the Western equivalent, from polls, ~95% of the Chinese support their government and it's policies, maybe 40% support the policies of Westrrn governments?
Welcome to the West in 2024. Never thought id live to see its fall, but here i am in the thick of it. The grand sweep of history and of change is palpable today. Historians of the future reading this, we grew up in the greatest time to be alive, took it for granted, and squandered it.
Welcome to the Arab Wirld! 😬🤥🤐
Mmm
It was only "the greatest time" for the colonialist powers. Most of the world suffered horribly from our brutal reign.
@@kateoneal4215 bullshit. Keep your fake virtue signaling to yourself.
@@kateoneal4215lol, coming from a white woman no less.
Toynbee also held that Concentration of Wealth within the Ruling Class played a large role in Civilizational Collapse, with the Dynamic being that the Ruling Class would absolve themselves from the obligation to pay taxes, at the same time as most income would be in their own coffers. Therefore the Government would not be able to maintain the Public Infrastructures for Irrigation, Education or Defense against Barbarian Invasion. One example was given which sounds amazing, that in China the Ruling Class first absolved their Class of having to pay any taxes at all, and then the Political Leadership put in a policy that Taxes would fall exclusively upon the Property Owners not of the absolved Ruling Class. Then the Ruling Class went to the Tax Paying Property Owners with the proposition that they could sell their Land to the Ruling Class and the Ruling Class would Lease the Land back to them, so that NOBODY had to pay any Taxes. Nobody paying any taxes turned into a very significant problem, but the Ruling Class owning virtually everything was thought to make the consequences worthwhile, but as Toynbee pointed out, that no matter how wealthy the Ruling Classes became, they generally did not survive the Collapse of their Civilizations. Thumbs Up.
Monopolism - a societal ideology where the rule enforcing framework benefits a few at the cost of the rest - long term unsustainable. This happens because of 'our nature of being living beings' coupled with 'our societies always being based on a monopol on force' that is being captured by individual living beings.
I will have to look into this Toynbee guy.
@@joansparky4439 Yes, Toynbee has the standing of being the most influential Historian in History. And, yes, thank you for the new term, that is, for me, that is, "Monopolism" where I'd always just referred to Concentration of Wealth. But keep in mind the Principle of Chesterton's Gate (that Institutions that we hold in doubt have probably come into being because they served a purpose). Concentration of Wealth results from an Accumulation of Wealth, that is, enough Wealth to invest is Trade, Industry, Roads, Infrastructures, Colonialism, Arts, Sciences, etc. In Europe one of the most significant driving engines for Accumulation of Wealth was the Institution of Primogeniture, that is, where the Estates would descend to the First Born Male Heirs, keeping Estates intact. Primogeniture wouild also encourage Second and Third Sons to go into the Church, or the Army, Law and Business. Britain became a Global Empire on the back of Primogeniture.
But, yes, if we are worried of a Few Wealthy over Many Poor, well, why are we not blaming the propagation of poverty. Where are any institutions designed to discourage Propertyless People from breeding like rats. I( would have an Institution where people would need to pay for a License to have a Child the same way they buy houses, that a Mortgage would have to be taken out, so that when any child arrives at the age of 30 then he or she will be presented with a sizeable Annuity Income Account. Also, we can look at the Medieval Lawa and catch some hint of how they held down the Population of Poverty, that many Penalties in the Law were Capital, that they would execute Criminals for damned near everything (where we get the quaint phrase "Might as well be hanged for stealing a Sheep as a Lamb". Yes, even hunters poaching game birds or rabbits upon some Lord's Estate could get one hanged or shot dead on the spot. So, yes, our problem is not with Too Much Wealth, but with Too Much Poverty. The War on Poverty should be construed as being a War on the Poor, to keep their numbers down. Yes, the Law of Economics had been that a great many Poor would translate into Cheap Labor, but now with Machine Intelligence and Affordable Robotics, that Dynamic has come to its Sunset, and now the Magnitudes of the Poor are only a Risk for Uprisings of Anarchist Revolution, from both the Right (Fascism) or the Left (Communism).
@@leovolontReducing the numbers of the poor is indeed possible, as history shows, Earths population has increasingly grown wealthier and the gap between the wealthy and super poor has shrunk dramatically. However, this will often be a slow process and eradication of the lower class will have to mean the eradication of the very real genetic and cultural circumstances that leads to within country poverty.
I.e genetic disability or abusive households. Absolving poverty completely in this case is almost impossible unless you want to adopt very archaic policies. You’ll likely have better success by maximizing the economic efficiency of the middle class and somehow reducing the need for the “destined to be poor” to not participate in the workforce at all.
@@COLDoCLINCHER37 Medieval Systems have used Religious Monasteries to regulate population. Monasteries would catch the population overflow, and then, with the rules against procreating, Poverty would die without leaving a trace. On my Channel, one of my best series of videos (to be found in my Playlist Menu, was the series "the Material Mechanics of Spirituality, in which (in the last or second to last video in the series) I explain that the Monasteries were probably not primarily intended to be Religious Retreats at all, but had been functionally intended to be Orphanages for illegitimate children, and catch alls for those in Disgrace, or those facing Poverty. Really, as Machine Intelligence and Robotics create more and more unemployment, we will need to rethink the Institutions of Monastic Celebacy, but not in strictly Religious Settings, as one can build up a type of
Religious Dovotion, for Golf, Sports, Boating, Riding, Arts, or whatever... the idea is to give unemployed people something that will fascinate them and keep them busy, and keep them from having babies. Not so much Concentration Camps as Summer Camps that go year round.
@@leovolont Possibly. But one must realise is the massive administration constraints that may prevent this from being successful. Atleast In the manner you described. To truly prevent the poor or I'd prefer to say the "destined to be poor" families or genetic lineages from procreating you must do so in a way that is self autonomous. In which the destined to be poor actually revel in the idea of no children, and unserious relationships and most important the lack of need of a nuclear family. Unfortunately, this is seen more frequently in highly developed and intelligent countries such as East Asia, mainly South Korea which now has a birth rate of less than 0.8 an order of nearly 2 below the recommended societal replacement level.
Knowing this, to create an autonomous sense of need of or lack of desire to procreate we must try and replicate the societal conditions that have resulted in such low infertility within East Asian communities and somehow actively and purposely propagate these depressive, unfamily friendly conditions within the masses of not so much the poor, but the people and genetic lineages who are destined to be poor or I should say more likely to be complacent in poverty as genetic and cultural determinants of poverty are not always easily predictable.
Its possoble, and weve already seen real world examples existing right now, we just need to find a way to Propogate such conditons without any resistance from the poor. Simply distracting them with enjoyances of modern life such as sport and, s3x may work in the begining, however, because of the innate human desire for novelty, every addiction whether good or bad will need to be reinforced with more extreme supports of that addiction in question. Look up the human dopamine response in the brain and why addicts continuously seek new and desires that fulfil their crave for dopamine spikes.
Also I apologise for spelling and grammatical mistakes as I'm typing this on phone.
He's pretty much nailed exactly what is happening now.
This is exactly what is happening in society and religion.
And it’s being fueled by the elites !
It's beyond saving at this point
What are you here for?
If you live in the collective West, your geopolitical rivials are convincing you (and your fellow citizens) things are worse off than they actually are. In reality, you and your luxuriant life would be the envy of virtually every human living before you.
@@BuddyLee23You (and many) only believe that technology means a thriving culture because you have been told so by that very society - it’s actually the opposite.
The kiss of death for any civilization is the feeling that they've arrived - that they can sit back and enjoy the fruits of their past successes. I see this attitude all over the place these days.
All work and no play makes Jack a dull boy.
If we are continuallt breaking eggs, but never get an omlette then what's the point?
It becomes all wretch and no vomit.
When we're continually promised the promised land, and it never arrives, then why not kick back?
Let some other nation do the work and then go through the same redundant cycle.
"To repeat tje same actions and expect different outcomes is the definition of insanity"
Why cling to what has become outdated? Why not enjoy the fruits of the moment where things peak? If you don't then who else will?
Thank you ancestors! Cake is very nice! Nom! 😋🎂😊
@@angryherbalgerbil The Confucian societies have fetishized, "Arbeit Macht Frei" as a W.A.S.P. mantra on steroids.
Perhaps we in the West are witnessing the collapse of our way of life, and therefore we will have to make difficult choices to survive. Either we will adhere to the Asian way of life, or our elites will lead us by default into complete insignificance. Time will tell.
Good point
Wrong that’s actually a mark of a rising one.When the average citizen can sit back and enjoy the fruit of their labor. A collapsing one is where the youth won’t even attempt to work or make society better because no matter what they do they can’t get ahead, because they know the power structures set them up to lose.
This happened in China for thousands of years too. It was called the dynastic cycle. There would be a corrupt empire, then rebellion and revolution, the new emperor would be good for awhile, then his descendants would get worse and worse, until another rebellion and revolt and then over and over and over again.
Typically, each dynasty would last from about 150-400 years.
Time seems compressed today: we've gone from the "universality" of education, all included, to an expensive education for an elite few that can afford it. in less than fifty years. WE talked in HS about money controlling politics when it was a 1,000 donation. It's now a 100 MILLION dollar donation, in less than fifty years.
@@DwightStJohn-t7yNewton's 3rd law.
In Ancient China regime change ensued after it lost the "Mandate of Heaven." In Britain the time scale has become compressed, so that after 10 - 15 years Mr Murdoch withdraws his mandate and a new government takes over.
Our elites are despicable, noone wants to imitate them, they are only despised in our time.
The problem is when they are able to manipulate the sheep, whom they despise e.g. 1%.
The opposite is true in the US. The zombies calling themselves Americans have a bizarre admiration for those that abuse them, kinda like the Stockholm syndrome.
They all need to be named and shamed, for what it’s worth …
It’s not just the cream that rises to the top - scum does too
Lol what? False. The rat race is designed to make people want more money, more money, more money.
“Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.” - George Santayana,
But if history has taught us one thing, it's that we never learn from it.
We never learn and we just repeat it over and over again, like a simple software running in a loop. It almost looks like a cheap simulation
Those who mindlessly repeat quotes and paste them on youtube are nincompoops - Crazy Frog
Perhaps we in the West are witnessing the collapse of our way of life, and therefore we will have to make difficult choices to survive. Either we will adhere to the Asian way of life, or our elites will lead us by default into complete insignificance. Time will tell.
You can't do anything else tho. Human nature is constant.
Civilizations die when those of sound mind waste their time thinking and analyzing things that are self evident instead of taking action against the forces eating away at society.
Good point but modern thinkers can make a lot of money from talking points in the culture. And to focus more on actions can lead to cancellation etc.
@@richardc861 Even more of a reason why taking action instead of talking is needed so much. Expecting evil to become less evil over time is pure folly. Things will get a LOT worse.
@@khatack yes, my concern though as you state, the time for talking and dialogue seemed wasted on society in the west now and any action imo will lead to violence. Almost feels like we are just waiting now for a some event to light a match and violence is the order of the day. Secondly, I think apathy is rife in the west.
@@richardc861 I think you're correct on both accounts. Pacifism is an evolutionary death sentence.
jews...
Our modern elites claim that meritocracy nullifies Toynbee. But the moral decay of the elites certainly looks like the end of an era.
In the eyes of modern powerful people, meritocracy is just a codeword for plucking the genius from the working class, putting it to work for their own ends, and leaving everyone else in the dust.
This is the US model for society in a nutshell.
Societies function when everyone mutually benefits, and die when the needs of the many are subordinated to the greed of the rulers. Though the slow decay and decline this brings is usually punctuated by a crisis that the now-enfeebled society can't withstand anymore, which brings on a sudden and rapid collapse.
While I would like your comment to be true, many, if not most, civilizations are made up of the exploited majority and a small elite ruling class. A large powerful middle class is a relatively new development.
My late dad was a historian and a fervent admirer of Toynbee's works. This analysis of civilisation is so simple and so true. You do not need fancy stuff to figure things out. A competent responsible meritocracy like the "Founding Fathers" in the USA gives way to an incompetent undeserving Inheritocracy. This Inheritocracy will have to use force to keep its grip on things as it becomes no longer relevant to the needs and concerns of the majority of people or the " working moral majority of people"?! Yet new factors are shaping civilizations now, which are technology, automation and hyper-productivity! Their impact is left to be seen.
Read, "Rise Of The Meritocracy" or, "The Tyranny of Merit" by Young and Sandel respectively. The Framers weren't creating a, "meritocracy" (the term would have no meaning in their times). This is a, "noble lie" or, "Veblenism" that we use to justify inequality which comes as a natural result of the functioning of a free and open society. It's worth noting the Framers were, "elitist" in the classicists sense. The vast majority of Americans weren't invited to vote in the state assemblies after the war. The Framers were influenced by Tacitus and Aristotle. They didn't view, "democracy" the way we do. They felt responsible for governing and educating, "those who could not govern and educate themselves" which in their times was the great majority of people. There are deep reasons why compulsory education isn't, "unconstitutional" in the United States
The sentiments of a great many while being worth examining are usually in the mode of, "despite things being much, much better in the past I feel humiliated by envy and the greed that comes from coveting the things and status of others." Deplorable poor people that want to hurt others out of envy and greed aren't idealists or revolutionaries. They're bitter criminals-- and just like the Founders said, "it's not hard to put down mobs." Look at the Paris Commune, the French Revolution, and the failed German revolution in 1918. We can put mobs down. We must address why they exist in the first place. This was Jefferson's advice.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Rise_of_the_Meritocracy
education.nationalgeographic.org/resource/voting-rights-throughout-history/
www.nationalguard.com
Anyone who prefers meritocracy over democracy either hasn't thought things trough or is an elitist. All meritocracies are elitist societies ultimately ruled by those who determine what the merits are (and not by the meritorious). If that doesn't create a divide between the ruling class (who set the goals by determining what the merits are) and the commoners (who have to be meritorious by acting like the ruling class prescribed) I don't know what will. Edit: and by the way, having a lot of money can be a merit too, it certainly is in the US.
@@JerehmiaBoazMerit, or proficiency in a specialism is easily determined by rigorous examinations. These have been dumbed down, and also replaced by coursework which is open to fraudulent submissions because they are not done in controlled conditions. People can get others to do the work for them. Moral merit is another matter entirely. Regardless of technical merit, it seems that most of our rulers are motivated entirely by greed and the lust for power. Lack of technical merit means that even the "good" people are easily turned into useful idiots by clever self interested people because they lack knowledge and critical thinking ability. The decline in my 69 year lifespan has been incredible to watch.
@@ericrawson2909 Merit isn't defined as proficiency in a specialism at all, it means possessing a superior amount or degree of an attribute worthy of praise or approval. Greed can be a merit too, for instance in Ayn Rand's philosophy (that's where Gordon Gekko's "greed is good" speech comes from).
@@JerehmiaBoazIf the merit is determined by feedback from the populace, as it is in China, that clears up the idiocy of Rand's definition of merit. Merit in the context of a ruling body must have feedback from the masses to determine what qualifies as meritorious, only that which benefits the majority qualify. It seems to have worked there so far, and it did, to whatever extent in the West until the greed of the elites and their wealth became sufficient that it no longer matters, just like it did in Rome.
Gosh! This is on point.
Exactly what I've been observing regarding the UK
What a content you brought here. This book deserves a deeper analisys. It sumerizes what is taking place with the western civilization nowadays.
Nothing is permanent. Just like the Great Greek and the Mighty Roman civilization collapsed, the same would happen to Western civilization as well.
It's just the law of nature. Accept and fade away. It's too late now to save anything.
I tend to think the industrializing east will bail us out when we get our act together. We are intimately part of the wider world.
@@urrywest Nope. We shall hobble along and eventually supplant the weak, stifling chaff. It's coming, change is blowing in the wind. Does it bother you that some clamor for the fight against their neighbor rather than some propagandist created "other".
@@EdAckley-j5v What I think you mean is that these societies that are in decline will eventually be over run by those who have stronger economies... That the cycle of imprialism will continue... I am not sure of that because China dosn't really have a recient history of imprialism and population growth rates in the east don't have the power to over run us.
@@urrywestwhat stronger economies the end of this is human extinction
Hard times create strong men. Strong men create good times. Good times create weak men. And, weak men create hard times..
And bullshitters produce bullshit Hard times kill people. Strong men create autocracies. Good times make people happy. Weak men realize that all men are weak and need society to thrive.
Weak men let the juice in
We're at the weak men stage right now. So I guess hard times are coming. Toward the end of the Roman empire, many men had also become very effeminate and morally and psychologically weak, like today's men.
@@miamiman196 We're not the roman empire and our civilization isn't collapsing just because the US is losing its hegemony. Western civilization was just fine before the US rose to dominance and it will be just fine after the US has waned.
@JerehmiaBoaz I did not mention the US at all. I am talking about Western civilization. The imposition and imitation of Western culture have been a civilizing factor throughout the world. Why did you think I was referring to the US? The US is just one of many countries in the "Western World."
Thanks for producing this short explainer video on Toynbee's still relevant concepts of historical cycles in civilizations. I devoted an entire chapter of my 2022 book, Words From the Dead: Relevant Readings in the Covid Age, to Toynbee's brilliant book, A Study of History. Required reading.
Civilisations die from irreconcilable conflicts between different classes, greed and corruption
This presentation is just what I need to continue to form my opinion of what is going on with our country and culture. Thank you!
The word "Merit" ignited so much analysis and passion rightfully so. How do we define "Merit" then? I would say: Merit is integrity and a real sincere concern about the common good, backed by competence. Obviously, a successful civilization cannot leave its fate neither to the mob in the name of democracy, nor to an unscrupulously, tyrannical, exploitive self-serving "elite"! There must be an optimal way to serve the common good.
The definition of merit depends on your goal.
You can’t attempt to define merit. Merit is subjective, which is why we leaned on democracy in the first place. We can’t agree on what even IS merit.
@@Willsmiff1985Nor democracy
Libertarianism is the answer
@@Willsmiff1985if democracy is the opposite of merit I can see why most civilizations didn’t believe in democracy
Perfect! Short and directly to the point!
I read "the rise and fall of civilization" by Toynbee 44 year ago. I could not believe him at the time that this could happen to us. I taught we are much too advance and rational being to fall like that. Than, I watch the Olympic opening ceremony in Paris 😳😧😱. We are f......
F***ed, indeed.
?? What happened? I not only didn't see it, but don't recall anything noteworthy in the news. Can you explain?
@@markdavis7397 they openly disrespected and made fun of "The Last Supper" on an International platform like the Opening ceremony of the Olympics, all of this in the disguise of ''Freedom of Expression''!
Murica - undecided between Degeneration and Decadence
“Why not both?” Decadent degeneration.
But FULLY ENGAGED in self- destruction!
False choice.
Yes, he was correct that there are definitely patterns of an evolutionary nature which repeat throughout historical rises and falls of societies. A society is in it's lethal final stage when one part wants to destroy the other part without awareness or care for the annihilation of the whole.
Sounds like the present.
@@occamsshavecream4541 EXACTLY. AND THE PAST TOO! PERHAPS WE'RE ALREADY LIVING IN THE BEGINNINGS OF "THE PAST?"
When food becomes art. That’s the beginning of the end.
Wonderful video. My father really likes Toynbee’s books
Toynbee admired Ibn Khaldun.
This is a fascinating and important conversation. Having said that something others have noted and that I have read/heard/seen is that societal collapse can be attributed to numerous civilizations throughout history but the decay and collapse express through similar root causes. Gross inequality and a dissafected population is a major sign that bodes ill but causes to collapse often come from military conflict, an overextended economy, and environmental factors and then they in turn precipitate other fractures like famine, war, and a
economic depression that together overwhelm a civilization. Props to the podcast Fall of Civilization BTW. That podcaster is a master storyteller when it comes to the subject.
Yes, but what dished Rome was devaluing its citizenship, and in particular its eventual reliance on non-Romans for its defence.
And the huge influx of barbarians who overwhelmed Roman culture. Historian Peter Heather makes this point. We are seeing this today in America and Europe with the influx of people from the Third World. But the elites are not only doing nothing about this invasion but are championing those who are undercutting our folkways and traditions as did the ancient barbarians in Rome en masse.
"The border is secure.... the border is secure...."
[Vice consulate of the Roman emperor after the sacking of Rome by the barbarians]
Ever since the Punic Wars the Romans relied on foreign allies for their military
This is exactly what's happening in europe. Citizenship is devalued
And you would think a certain country would learn from that but NOOOOOOOOOOO
The downfall of an empire is having wealth and comfort for too long and strive in self interest shellfish desire’s
Selfish
@@Smile200-z4y who can say these days? Most of these self destructive behaviors, lobsters wouldn't even engage in.
@@EdAckley-j5v Hedonism as exemplified by the hip-shaking Elvis & Crawfish?
GREAT PRESENTATION
Thanks!
Thank you Greg! 🙏
This is happening now.
As I like to say, wealth is like manure, if you spread it around, a healthy garden will grow. If you concentrate it, you get a toxic pile of $h!t.
I read that Toynbee was widely considered to be the pre-eminent historian of the twentieth century ( by other historians ). I can see why.
Him and Spengler, who directly influenced Toynbee by postulating civilizations have life cycles like organizms.
We have a new tool to keeping the leadership of our societies healthy in most of the west: democracy. If our leaders become irrelevant and we are competent voters, we will get better leaders. This is a dominating process in most of the EU.
@@jensstergard9380Is this is a joke or a prescriptive nostrum?
@@SynthwaveDuck This is an observation. The US is an example of a weakening democracy because of voters mislead by the rich (to simplify things a lot).
How civiliztions are built - Good ideas and philosophy
How civilizations are destroyed - Bad ideas and philosophy
To save the world is the simplest thing in the world. All one has to do is think.- Dr. Leonard Peikoff
FEMINISM!
Thanks ladies and don't come crying back to us as the collapse gets worse.
You showed precious little gratitude for the deference and extreme consideration we have shown you for 50 years.
Finally enjoy the true equality.
No, it’s when a nation rejects God, he sends their enemies to destroy that nation. Read about ancient Hebrews when they were punished by God every time they rejected him.
As a woman I do agree to a degree - but men too have played their part in the decay of our once great culture
I’m reading the decline of the west right now and boy it is a hard read.
Hope Toynbee is easier.
Don't waste your time
Toynbee writes more straightforward or conventional history with academic hypotheses, whereas Spengler has written a kind of philosophical or spiritual interpretation of history.
How remarkably on point and enlightening.
Take a look at the Achaemenids. They had competent statesmen like Cyrus and Darius at the beginning who created an effective government, infrastructure, economy, military, etc. At the end, the ruling class became engaged in luxuries thereby raising taxes, corruption, and the idea that Persia was invincible. They got whacked by a kid.
They got whacked because their army would rather flee than stand and fight bravely. Why fight for rulers who live lifestyles vastly different to yours? The same question applies today. Who would fight to protect their own country when it's rulers are nothing like its people?
@@postblitz Make no bones about it, "A soldier will fight long and hard for a bit of coloured ribbon."
@@Dawah_Help a "soldier" i.e. a dumbass.
one warrior is worth 100 soldiers.
tell a person he can kill the ones giving away the colored ribbons and watch him become one.
Good presentation! I think Oswald Spengler model might highly intetest you and your viewers.
Reading Decline of the West now actually
Try reading Wikipedia
@ThinkingWest Excelent book, looking forward for a video on that!
@@tuckerbugeater village idiot will ALWAYS make their presence known.
@@ThinkingWesthow is that going? I tried to read it, but gave up at spme point.
I would suggest that Toynbee ‘borrowed’ his hypothesis from Polybius. Though Toynbee has a much larger data set of cultures to which he has tested Polybius’s initial anacyclosis theory.
Your video suggests that a civilization - any civilization - would do well to deliberately nurture the creativity that exists among the common people by fundamentally restructuring their educational system to ensure that the creative minority that is in power is continuously infused with new blood so that it remains innovative. That said, I won't hold my breath that this will happen in the West, and in particular the United States.
What do you suggest the reform to be?
I recently read of Dorothy Tillman who received a PhD at age 17. I believe the education structure can be much more efficient because of Dorothy's example. However, home life (parents) are most important and beyond the education industry's power.
@@tyranmcgrathmnkklkl School reform cannot be one person’s solution. But your question deserves a response. Regardless of their number, it would help if most of the professionals charged with developing the reform strategy are parents; if some of the developers are actual “strategists” and some current or former teachers or technical education instructors; if the reform approach calls for and genuinely takes into account parental input; if at the end of each academic year administrators are required to formerly rate and document the learning-instilling aptitude of their teachers; and, as you seem to suggest, if the reform strategy requires ceasing to involve sanctioning those in authority to proclaim or enact edicts that authorize the mindset of the many annulling the exercise of individual agency of the one (the student) and depositing the delegated consent of the few (the student’s family) into school trash cans.
With regards to the actual reform strategy, as an 80-year old, lifelong student, as a former teacher and retired civilian Federal government employee, and as a parent in progress my input would suggest that the fundamental lesson the reform plan developed and implemented must deliver to and instill in students is that everything in life, including life itself, is simultaneously a system and part of a system (a subsystem) and that all systems - organizations (e.g. civilizations, societies, governments, businesses, the observable universe, school districts, etc.) as well as organisms (i.e. individuals) - are “open structures”, and therefore exposed to the risks and opportunities generated by the environment in which they function and compete. Of course, the developers of the strategy would have to be required to demonstrably prove that the newly reformed system actually achieves preparing students to systemically analyze the risks and opportunities existing in their functional/competitive environment so that their lifelong problem solving capacity effectively delivers systemic-strategic solutions to the problems they encounter in life and must either face down or leverage to their competitive advantage in choosing to settle for “fated fate” or to conscientiously achieve “by design destiny”.
The answer is libertarianism
@@Doood692 Your comment suggests that you believe you know what answers libertarianism provides to exactly what problems. All I can say is that nobody understands the problems or the potential answers - like libertarianism - in exactly the same way.
@@pncicitap2519I’m suggesting that libertarianism is the best way to try and achieve that goal
Nothing lasts forever. Nothing.
Excellent correct summary
Hits hard. Thoughtful content. Subbed.
People always think they live at the unprecedented end of times. In the U.S. for example, Americans have predicted the republic’s impending decline almost as soon as the republic began. So when can we tell if a civilization is actually nearing the end?
Research the Whiskey Rebellion. The American Republic fell long ago.
Brilliant insights, and I suspect more timely today then when they were written. thank you.
This by far is the greatest thing I’ve watched in the last couple months!!!😮❤🤔. This basically explains everything. The ruling elite primarily the liberals, Democrats Hollywood, academic modernist, etc. have lost complete creativity and degenerated into despotism and decadence. So I know the future of my country USA
You ignore the executive elite that has begun to resemble a Soviet-style nomenlatura that lives like aristocrats. Its current efforts seem to be lobbying corrupt politicians, privatizing the public sector on the cheap, and sticking customers with higher costs to do anything. You ignore also the efforts of wealth-cult clergy who sere themselves while inculcating fear and debasing formal education. At least as much fault lies with the Right as with the Left.
What makes you think the Republican elites are any less degenerate?
I got to personally feel the end of social unity. The most unsettling thing about it is that it felt natural.
Good job
Detachment.... The worst kind of rebellion
Peter Turchin at SUNY offers a very cogent analysis of how societies develop and decay. But seems similar to this.
Thank you for artistic pictures and thoughtful narrative.
Recommend checking out the Prophets of Doom by Neema Parvini for an overview of the other thinkers on cyclical history.
Read it myself. You are quite right. A most excellent introduction to the cyclical theorists of history. 😢 I believe an earlier work by Parvini reviews the elitist school of political theory.
@ Yes, The Populist Delusion
EXCELLENT video!! A very insightful description on the nature of civilizational decline.
This describes the situation in much of the world, not just the West.
Yeah this is the first time in history that , when the american empire collapses .
The whole world will be dragged down whit it .
As before this was never the case whit the empires before america .
the first blow is suicide and then by murder. If you look at WRE in the later days ,you can tell by the historical writings of people of the times and the actions of famous people in those latter days that essentially one half of the populus has completely given up on 'Roman values' or even Romanness itself and largely the term was a catch phrase for things within the provinces of the empire not associated with its foundation, its story, its history or myth but rather a tacked on conglomeration of the various peoples the Romans had occupied recently, or had recently been pushed into the empire via migration, and you can see the Roman culture took on various aspects of these cultures in significant ways EG: adoption of military aesthetic, tactics and the warriors themselves in the foederati system as well as the cultural social and demographic changes they brought on very quickly led to a suicide and a murder, the murder was done by those of Roman title who enriched themselves using the foreign fighters and their influence culturally and systematically (within the roman system) to destroy the opposing side leading to the culture only being operated by strongmen, warlords and various foederati generals and it is very self evident that the actual army itself was made up of the same demographic in which they were fighting, that within itself is a betrayal of the base (the actual romans or latins) I believe when he refers to the upper class and lower class socially and culturally being un anchored from each other that appears to be where we are. Arnold Toynbee seems interesting in regards to the topic.
I’m not a historian, I don’t fancy myself an intellectual or leader either. However, I know better than to think that we are any better in 2024 than the people alive hundreds and hundreds of years ago at the collapse of Rome. We copied their homework word for word and expected a different ending. Human nature is human nature, our “progressive attitudes” are just a facade that very easy living has allowed to spread. We are still human just like ancients.
Excellent video. Thanks for sharing it.
It's all happening now.
We've just seen it play out in real time.
My only problem is how do we determine that a civilization has ended? A joke goes “the Roman Empire ended in the year that you believe the Roman Empire ended”. I think the words “5uicid3” or “murd3r” (helping the algo) offer too much suddenness to a process that is more slow and transformative.
The decay and degeneracy is slow , I agree, but once a tipping point arrives, the collapse and loss of power is palpable. The success of a civilization is the seed of its eventual downfall.
I think that exterior conditions are much more influential than he projected and I would rate them number one . Look at the Irish , how foreign invasion stopped the internal development of society and directed toward something else .
@@anti-genocideonly because they lost the war
@@Jaco059The Romans won many wars . Where are they ?
"Some nations don't fall. They capitulate.
Rome wasn't conquered, someone opened the gates...." - from a song I wrote called 'Hard Times'. There may be some parallels intended.
Humankind has made the same mistakes for 10,000 years. Looks like we're at it again. Arrogance doesn't change the facts.
How long have we got?
The price for apathy in Civic affairs is to be ruled by evil men...Plato.
Interesting perspective. In “Hope and Tragedy A History Of The World In Our Time” by Carroll Quigley, he writes that civilizations tend to collapse because they cannot carry the old ideals and principles that established themselves as prosperous in the face of new challenges as effectively, so they abandon them, and subsequently succumb. The lesson there is never betray what makes you great, for certain death will follow.
Awesome!
No Wonder, THIS GREAT MINDS, aré needed to understand the world We live In...to know what to do, AND create, through imagination, what We should do...or...LOSE EVERYTHING...
Yes, Spengler's "The Decline of the West" is an excellent book!!
The hubris of the ruling elite combined with other factors, like disease that does not discriminate, ecological disasters that had been brewing for years and ignored or misunderstood and the ambitions of foreign rulers along with rebellions from the masses, contribute to a civilization's downfall.
Toynbee was astute about the history of civilizations.
And of course we have Chaos Theory, which states that the larger and more complex a system is the more likely it is to either fail or break apart.
Nailed modern-day America to a T, and perhaps Europe as well.
Great presentation! Tanks.
Sound insights. Also what is implied in some of the images in the video: A lack of sexual restraint creating a licentious social climate. Anthropologist J.D. Unwin found in his *Sex & Culture* that material prosperity over time leads to a turn from channeling sexual interests in the traditional family to other forms of sexuality that undermine the family, and hence the society.
Right wing nonsense
@@stevenhenry5267 LOL, if you disagree, then spell out what you disagree with in particular and then support your points of disagreement with evidence. I have evidence and you have zero at this point.
Unwin found an interesting corellation. Sexuality is one of the many contributing factors to societal change.
Articles about polyamory's happy participants have appeared in my feed, alluding to a prosperous time for society. Now I anticipate the downfall. The rise and fall.
@@tyranmcgrathmnkklkl The prosperity is what leads people to relaxing their moral standards since they are more insulated from the negative effects of their moral drift. When the family degenerates then people don't invest as much in their children nor are they as likely to provide them with an emotional foundation for their future. Alternatives to heterosexual sex within a loving marriage worsen this problem. Now with birth control and abortion, people have a lot fewer children, which is leading to a population implosion in the West and other developed nations. Those who have more sex partners prior to marriage are much more likely to divorce leaving the children damaged in the process.
When people do have children, an increasing number do not have in tact families to provide a stable home for their children. These children are much less likely to be well-cared for in emotional terms so that the succeeding generation is less interested in replicating their home life and are less able to bond intimately with anyone- see John Bowlby's Attachment Theory. The combined lack of investment in the next generation in terms of education and training as well as the lack of steady emotional intimacy worsen the chances of proper development of the next generation.
As a result, we can see how a tribe or a civilization deteriorates within 3 generations to the point of no return as Unwin found in his research.
I'm not sure there have been similar cases in the past to what's happening now: unlimited mass migration that can be stopped by force, but which is instead encouraged and tolerated by the ruling class.
We are watching his formula unfold near exactly in today's "western world".
Excellent explanation! Thanks!
I met Toynbee when I was very young. He was a big man with a big handshake. It was in a symposium with some of the greatest minds and I had the liberty to also shake hands with Einstein and Tagore. I also met my future wife that night. Had a wonderful woohoo in the hotel that night 💞💋💘
Can you do a deeper dive analyzing and sumamrizing the whole book
Why did I watch this? Now I need to go build my apocalypse bunker
One problem is that the 'thing' that makes a civilization rise--the successful handling of a major problem--becomes their static response to future difficulties that require different responses. One example of this is Sparta, the state that Toynbee called 'a civilization within a civilization'. It took the idea of city-state unity to a whole new level. But when faced with the problem of declining population needed to be addressed, they could not accept the entry of non-Spartan families into the traditional stock of Spartans. When one king, Agis, tried to incorporate some thousands of Perioki (misspelled?), he was assassinated, with his own mother's approval. So it comes down to civilizations not being able to adjust to different, unique challenges, as they stubbornly cling to outdated modes of response.
Basically the poor get sick of the rich....
I've heard of Toynbee before in connection with the Sumerians and he's a great historian and thinker. What this video describes is happening now in western civilization today.
I think that Toynbee was right on the 💰
Various societies repeat the cycle of death and rebirth of a new civilization what can prevent this cycle of death and what can improve civilizations
The piano music background noise is distracting.
I choose to believe that there is often order out of chaos. Things must breakdown to a certain degree before we can fix them. Bandaids won’t work
Violence is coming, words are meaningless presently.
If Toynbee and Spengler had lunch together...they would drink a bit too much and get into a fistfight. I always considered Toynbee as an optimistic Spenglerian...risky to start a video with a quote from an optimist
Could we have more of these on historiography please?
But America never went through civilization? So I don’t get it
WELL DONE!
Yuri Bezmenov might have some ideas.
Toynbee's wrong; AD Civilizations do die ''by murder'' i.e. excessive&blatant ubiquitous&pervasive&persistent JWO manipul&exploit-ation! :_[ hYlkeW
Civilizations die because they refuse to adapt. What works at one stage doesn't work at another, and if you try to fight the next war with the approach of the last war, as it were, you lose. Not because they lose their way and change.
How? Massive inequity in the distribution of wealth, political corruption, failing checks and balances, declining education amongst the working and middle class, and then the rise of a charismatic wannabe dictator.
Yup you’re right. Kamala Harris wants to repeat what happened to the Roman Empire.
@@jordonlongley6576 Think for yourself Jordon and stop parroting MAGA propaganda on Fox news.
EXCELLENT! JUST SUBSCRIBED!
HaHa! Isn't that what exactly is happening to the U.S.?
“Make America Great Again” would not have caught on unless a significant portion of the population already recognized their nation was in decline.