All Civilizations Follow the Same Pattern
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- Опубліковано 7 лют 2025
- All empires repeat the same cycle, says 20th-century historian John Glubb. He observed that for the past 3000 years every civilization has followed the same 6 stages before decline-what are they?
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Times change, but human nature stays the same. This is the underlying reason why the patterns of history keep repeating - people are always still people.
We cant change who we are
Sounds like an excellent reason to unalive.
People are people, so why should it be.. that you and I should get along so awfully?
@@blueshattrick Old enough to remember the '80's!
People are people, but we're not all the same, are we? And if it's human nature to kill or steal from other people, why have we made it illegal?
According to Glubb, this cycle tends to repeat because societies prioritize short-term gain over long-term stability as they reach the Age of Decadence. His theory suggests that civilizations that lose their founding values and sense of purpose, focusing instead on luxury and individualism, are ultimately at risk of decline. This pattern has been observed in civilizations as diverse as the Roman Empire, the Ottoman Empire, and even the British Empire.
Happening today as well
This is currently happening in America
And he's right. The real bottom line is that people are really just interested in what benefits them in the short term. We've not fundamentally changed since we were small wandering tribes spending our days trying not to starve or become prey.
The masses will go along (mostly) with more organized societal structure as long as it benefits them. Many will not willingly go along but will simply be forced to do so. Eventually an oligarchy of some kind will get control and the masses will not feel they're getting anything while also becoming angry that the oligarchs have the majority of the assets and can just make up the rules to benefit themselves. They then try various ways to overthrow the oligarchs and eventually all of that degenerates into anarchy and back to tribalism in various forms. And that's pretty much where we are today.
Good points. But how do we explain the decline of East Asian societies where individuality is downplayed? And the collective good is encouraged and rewarded? China, for example, is having some serious problems, despite their, 'group' conformist philosophy. (Perhaps we should come to a compromise between individuality and collective good?) Wow, what a concept!
Are you talking about yourself, or others?
Fun fact: America’s 250th birthday is in 2026…
Well not exactly. The United States of America officially came into existence in 1788. So I believe 2038 will be 250 years.
The colonies declared independence from England officially in 1776. I believe the war for independence lasted 8 years. The the colonies formed a loose confederation for a few years. This was a time of great debate between federalist and antifederalists. This lead to the colonies finally agreeing on the new government and the formation of a constitutional federalist republic known as The United States of America.
I realize we celebrate 1776 as the birth but that was really more like labor and 1788 was the actual birth.
Not that any of this really matters because it is just a few years.
The US got its' independence from Britain in 1783 with the Treaty of Paris and signed the constitution in 1787. Some men declaring independence from Britain in 1776 was not independence. The French at Yorktown made it so. The French paid back Britain for taking Canada from them.
Good fact to point out. Indeed failure seems baked in the cake at this point.
The united states is not or was an empire.
@@latetotheparty184 Orange frosting no less
The worst of us will always ruin it for the rest of us. And as evil doesn't have a leg to stand on without stupid people buying in, there may not be any hope to escape that pattern. Ever vigilant isn't just a fun thing to say, we literally welcome every horror of human history otherwise
Employment/money plus wisdom at age 20 is a prerequisite to succeed in life. If people are wise after age 50, they cannot succeed today. If it was normal for humans to get 200 years, instead of max 100 years as it is today, humans would be able to deal with a bad start in life and have big success after the age of 50.
@ChristianRosenblad The pirates would just have longer contracts, we would still waste our lives making others rich, the monopoly systems would have greater power. It would be more of the same. Evil taking advantage of suckers, suckers buying into evil. Age wouldn't cure the crabs in a bucket mentality
@@ChristianRosenblad if humans would live till 200 instead of 100, a 30 year old would still act and be considered a child and a 100 year old would be a foolish middle aged person who still has half their life to "get it together". Therefore they'd take their time, smoke drugs and take it easy.
@@sandermez3856 I would agree with this statement as well. Western empires decline. Civilizations decline. It would be best if we enjoy life and spend time with other humans and not worry about life at all. Yes we must advocate for human rights and we must fight for justice and democracy but at the same time it will never be possible as long as empire like the American Empire is still around.
Parasites ruin it for the rest of us.
Someone once said "the love of money is the root of all evil." Seems pretty accurate description of USA politics.
Someone also said you cannot serve two masters, you cannot serve God and mammon both
Some translations of the bible put it as "The love of money is the root of all kinds of injurious things" Specifically the "love" of money - not just money.
@@tryhard9120 yes. which is why I was careful to quote it as you did.
That, 'someone' would be Timothy from the New Testament, Judeo-Christian Bible- 1 Timothy 6:10
Would it not be a description of European or even Latin American politics? Is the United States, 'so bad', compared to the rest of the world?
As long as we keep erasing history instead of learning from it we will always repeat it
That is the leftist Democrats to destroy the civilization by bringing a flood of illegal foreign migrants, turning the society to lawless, removing historical statues, and rewriting history. 😮
Human beings will ALWAYS repeat because people will always be people.
Who's erasing history?
I don’t think anyone erases history, but everyone thinks they are the exception
Florida and their country a88es. Goofy de santis @@samr.england613
"Hard times create strong men,
Strong men create good times,
Good times create weak men,
Weak men create hard times."
-G. Michael Hopf.
That's a lot of nonsense rhetoric. Painting a little picture with a huge brush.
Talk about nonsence....@moodist1er
America today:
I wish people would stop posting this crap. Hitler, Stalin and Mao were all strong men in the sense that they wielded a lot of power, but I'm pretty sure they did not create good times. America is strong indeed, but it also created bad times for other nations and created many enemies. Even if that quote was true, then the so called strong men always plant the seeds of their society's destruction, so what point are you trying to make? That it's inevitable?
in tahiti they had good times as well as strong men
until … 😂😂😎
Most empires have ended by rotting and decaying from within, with hostile external opponents just delivering the final coup de grace.
Thank God and James Madison the United States is NOT an empire.
@@samr.england613 The U.S. IS an empire, a military and economic empire. All empires eventually fall and their fall occurred faster and faster throughout history. For example, the Roman Empire took many centuries to fall whilst the British one took just a little over one century before handing the "title" to the U.S. The U.S. has been at the top of the world's power chain for only 80 years now and its demise is already on the doorstep of joining other fallen empires. In my opinion, the main reasons for the U.S. upcoming crash will be due to its military over-expansion, a center which no longer holds, the dumbing down of its population at a time in history when knowledge is THE primordial advantage and corruption at the highest levels of government (a tRump presidency is the perfect example of this).
@@michelegagne5169 The US is a constitutional republic, not an, 'empire'.
@@michelegagne5169 Btw, you have no idea what you're talking about.
@@samr.england613 LOL
The pattern always boils down to politicians and corruption.
Present day America. Bob Menendez and Erica Adams. Bribe from Egypt and Turkey. Pathetic. They're the best we can do?
That is not the case in healthy democracies.
@@jensstergard9380 A "healthy democracy" could not turn into an empire in the first place because most people are not interested in foreign wars and colonial expansions and would rather focus on their own country. The government therefore has to disregard/manipulate the will of the people to engage in said wars, which is obviously not democratic.
And the idiots who keep paying them well after the fact
Chook toed shoes are always the soul survivors and claim they are victims.
I have a simpler theory. The pursuit of money for its own sake ultimately leads to ruin of the individual, then the family then the nation.
@@pcrockett5967: I totally oppose this theory. I am against it!!😳🙄
Aristotle defined 6 forms of government, 3 types on an axis:
Monarchy --- Tyranny
Aristocracy --- Oligarchy
Politeia --- Democracy
The defining factor between the two is the intention of the parties involved; Do they operate from self interest or the common Good?
So in your example, no one accumulates money for no reason. The intention behind the gathering of the money and how they use it is what matters.
actually not, that happens because after living more than 200 years in prosperity, people are no longer able to maintaince prosperity
American empire seems like already in Final stage. Last part of the Final stage.
Except the difference is, all the Empires fell because of their Mistakes.
This Empire is purp0sely being dem0lised by the ruling p0wer.
0pen B0rders, M@$$ Migr@ti0n, High Infl@ti0n, Endle$$ w@rs, destructi0n of Family values.
Who knows, there’s always unpredictability in the future
Not the end of the empire. Only the end of the Republic. Ending the Republic bought Rome another 450 years.
@@satdownzebrathere is empire or Republic; empire is on the left where as Republic is on the Right; you must be a civil? civil c -10 to -1 and think it normal; empire is civil where as Republic is Military which the United States of America is;
with a civil infestation of hu mans not United States of America citizens; sucks to be those civil hu mans in the coming tomorrow Years in the United States of America; Legend has it Sharks and Alligators say ‘hu mans taste like chicken’ 🤔
@@satdownzebraI can’t wait until we go full mask off imperial
The takeaway is that, in order for civilizations to "cheat death" we must choose faith, hope, dedication, & self-sacrifice! Cynicism, pessimism, frivolity, and excessive hedonism are the way to certain destruction.
I agree with you for the most part, but 'cynicism' can be a plus, in order to weed out the bullshitters.
For the people railing against it because they disagree with the 250 year average, you missed the point of evaluating the stages. Sounded like highly educated people wanting to flaunt their knowledge and arguing about an insignificant sub fact. I found the video interesting and of value.
Marcus Aurelius specifically warned about being pedantic in Meditations. It also reminds of a quote in Dune about mentats needing to avoid esoteric debates over insignificant details, while shucking the bigger picture; arguing over commas essentially. This does nothing but bog us down and hinder progress
Yeah man, god forbid these people actually want substantial real life historical evidence. We should take all glubbs points at face value and not question if he was even correct at his assertion
@@navalhermawan7504 Real life historical evidence is easily found, unless those people are intellectually lazy. There are entire channels right here on youtube devoted to the study of numerous civilizations, their rise, and their fall. The patterns are basically the same.
Western / Global Liberal Democracy timeline:
Age of Pioneers: 1793-1880
Age of Conquest: 1880-1918
Age of Commerce: 1918-1945
Age of Abundance: 1945-1965
Age of Intelect: 1965-1991
Age of Decadence: 1991-2043
Looks like USA rather than the entire west.
@@ayanpandeydpsn-std9005
Liberalism first manifested politically in the French Revolution. It spread and imposed itself in the world by the hand of many nations, eponymously begining in France, but quickly spreading to the U.S where it kept a strong grip on power ever since.
For the last 100 years, the U.S.A has remained the de facto power behind the entire Western/Global Liberal Democratic order, so i understand why you would think they are the same thing.
@@xunqianbaidu6917
I didn't say it dominated the world since 1793, i said it originated in 1793 but it only dominated after 1918.
It may yet fit the USA but not Europe when many countries (Spain, Portugal, England, France, Holland) had its Empires much earlier and they have not collapsed even after 500 years.
@arctic_haze
European Empires are a completely different phenomon to the Western/Global Liberal Empire.
Every European Empire collapsed and was thoroughly conquered by the Western/Global Liberal Empire.
Portugal: 1475-1755 (280 years)
Spain: 1516-1808 (292 years)
France: 1682-1939 (257 years)
Holland: 1619-1795 (176 years)
England: 1707-1947 (240 years)
You can dispute these dates when it comes to definitions. But this is based on period they were considered relevant on the world stage.
Found this fascinating, I have been arguing this point for years about America.
What point is that?
@@samr.england613 Foreigners and intellectuals are the problem! Is that his point? Sounds like it.
What kind of mental gymnastycs did he use to get these numbers at 1:15? A lot of them are incorrect, and there are many empires that are selectively disregarded for not fitting the desired norm. The Neoassyrian Empire lasted not from the 9th century BC, but from the 10th, over half a century longer. The Old Assyrian Empire, which lasted over half a milennium, is omitted. What is referred to here as "Greece" is not Greece, but Macedon. It is a Hellenistic state, not a Hellenic one. The last successor state lasted until 30 BC, not 100 BC, and Alexander's rule started in 336 BC, not 331, which extends this period to 306 years. The Roman Republic did not start in 260 BC, but in the 6th century BC, most likely 509 BC, which extends its age by 249 years, almost another whole supposed empire period. The Roman Empire lasted until 1453 AD (or 476 AD for the West only), and while the Empire was in decline in 180 AD; that decline started almost 20 years earlier during the Antonine Plague. The Arab Caliphate is not given the same conditions as Macedon, because while it also had three main great successor states, none are acknowledged here. The Orroman Empire did not last from 1320 to 1570. The Ottoman Dynasty lasted from 1299 to 1923, 624 years, and their state officially became an empire in 1453. The Empire wasn't even close to decline in 1570, which started closer to the 1680-s. The Spanish empire did begin around 1500, but most of it endured until the 1820-s, when their colonies broke off as a consequence of the Napoleonic Wars. I do admit that the 18th century is when their power dwindled, but that decline started earlier, in 1714 at the latest. The Romanovs started their reign in 1613, not 1682. The Act of Union of Great Britain was not signed in 1700, but in 1707, and it did not cease to apply in 1950, but is still in effect today. One could say that the given years are rough estimations of rise and decline, and while I would agree with this, such a principle is only applied to Britain and Spain for some reason.
Overall, the list is arbitrary and selective. It is as if the author drew the conclusion first and then gathered all the data that proves it.
Yeah, I caught that too.
So you would rise the average to what? 300 or 350 years?
This was written in the early 20th century so they probably didn't have enough info as we do. He mentions 250 years being a ballpark figure as well as exceptions to the rule. You can debate the specifics of dates and time but the general pattern is the same.
@@hermitcard4494 More important than the average is the deviation. If the error bars on that average are really high, it means absolutely nothing about any particular country.
Whit the romans they had those cycles to . But their fases had bigger fases , let me explain .
The big 3 fases where : 1: the kingdom wich followd the pattern of the 250 year cycle .
2 : The republic who had 2 : 250 year cycles of reform wich makes a good 500 years .
3 : the empire wich also had 2 : 250 year cycles of reform wich also makes a good 500 years .
Everything in reality has a beginning and an end, a creation and a destruction. Nothing in the physical world stays the same forever, nothing. This includes Empires.
@@Redbird4912 : Everything?🙄
I really oppose this!😠
@terefefeyssa877 So name something, one thing, in reality, the physical world, that is unchanging.
@@Redbird4912 : " Name something "?
I can't. I couldn't find one.🤔
And New Zealand
The laws of Thermodynamics. Everything is degrading. Everything is losing energy.
If you think about it, America was an expanding empire before WWII. And the alternate dates given notwithstanding, it is generally accepted that the modern nation we call the United States was born at the signing of the Declaration of Independence.
We then went on to conquer all the land west of the 13 colonies that was not part of Canada, including parts pf what were Mexico until the early 1800s.
We were indeed conquerors - we wiped out hundreds of sovereign Indian nations, and put our flag ever farther westward on land we conquered by military force. If that's not empirical conquest, I don't know what is.
We were a well established global force by WWI. It was after our victory in WWII that we became a global superpower.
But WWII was not the beginning of our history of conquest. I would argue that it was our last round of conquest before the stages of intellectual superiority and decline. After WWII we became leaders in the sciences, and exported our culture in the form of movies, TV, and music all around the world.
Now we are in the stage of decline.
MAGA looks to me like an attempt to reclaim our past glory, and this kind of movement is not at all unusual in cultures who are experiencing serious decline.
People naturally yearn for the days when the winds of fortune were at our backs and the world seemed like ours for the taking.
But overall I'd say, yeah we have hit the 250 year mark, and things are not going to be like they were 50 or 70 years ago, no matter who is President.
It also follows the generational pattern as discussed by Strauss and Howe in the 1997 book The Fourth Turning. Every 80-100 years society has some big upset. After a few of these things turn on their heads.
Employment/money plus wisdom at age 20 is a prerequisite to succeed in life. If people are wise after age 50, they cannot succeed today. If it was normal for humans to get 200 years, instead of max 100 years as it is today, humans would be able to deal with a bad start in life and have big success after the age of 50.
We could still snap out of it.
@@petejohnson8366 that’s slipping farther and farther away.
So true, each civilization went through the same passage and it will keep repeating the same cycle as long as we are human beings.
All Civilizations Follow the Same Pattern - 'Hard times create strong men. Strong men create good times. Good times create weak men. And, weak men create hard times.'
Nonsense.
@@ianjedi1282 Is it?
Cool 😎 I like it 👍🏾
@@samr.england613 yes it is. Plenty of hard men get conquered by weak men. The ussr was filled with hard men making bad times.
@@ianjedi1282explain yourself
I have learned this before, but it was a long time ago. I don't remember the periods of empires being quite "so neat". I thank you for the clarity of your presentation.
I have my own theory in which each stage is actually an internal force. All stages are happening simultaneously, but the spirit of the elite can withhold the decay. Once the elite loses their quality and will, these forces which only lied under the surface begin conquering the empire one by one, by order of its weaknesses. Civilizations that never reach imperial splendour can experience these same events out of order, and they can also experience influence from civilizations outside which can help control or exacerbate those forces.
Good theory. Everything is subjected to entropy, and those that run things can counteract it. When they desist in doing so, entropy runs its course (or courses, in this case)
@@niconiconiick6979 Yes. I'm developing my theory which really is a reinterpretation of the cycles of civilization theory to account for civilizations that don't go through this entire process. Their history is more confusing and they don't have quite clear phases. For instance some nations have a tendency to be "support players" for empires and as long as they have the empire they can withhold these internal forces of entropy, if the empire decays they decay with it, and if they don't have the empire they can go through confusing cycles of glory and misery which goes paralel to a strong elite existing in the nation or not.
This is just a sycophantic idealisation of the rich and powerful elites who are the most greedy and without morals. Arguably the elite lost their "spirit" in the 1215 uprising against king John allying the peasants with the lords or elite, who acted for their own interests, but this didn't cause england's downfall, it lasted to the present day so how do you explain this one example?
Excellent summary. We are in the last stages of the last.
I fear that we are not yet close
@@niconiconiick6979250 years is 2026 for the US. Idk about the rest of the Western world.
America is a Republic.
I feel like whole world is in the last stage.
@@niconiconiick6979 That's normal, most never see disaster until it's too late.
Those who fail history are destined/ doomed to repeat it
Those who are human shall repeat it.
"...there are times when the perhaps unsophisticated self-dedication of the hero is more essential than the sarcasm of the clever."
Hits hard for our new generation...
I bet greed and stupidity disguised as intellectual plays a huge part
Jordan peterson being a perfect example of this
A 250 year cycle eh? ... Well then, it will be 250 years since 1776--2026.
Sooo, the preppers aren't so stupid after all.
No, they're still stupid.
@@Ron-mw4ic
There have been numerous instances of individuals known as “preppers” that have shared their first aid kits with others in the community after the floods in Tennessee. Not sure about food rations, but I’d suspect those came in handy for some, as well.
One can denigrate the paranoia, but no matter how you feel about it, being prepared will _never_ be as stupid as the opposite.
You can’t truly prep for disaster because you don’t know what disaster is coming.
@@Toastcat890
Any disaster is likely to cause prolonged periods of limited access to food, medical care, and reliable energy sources. All things which can be adequately prepared for. Granted, if you’re within the fireball of a nuclear blast, or fail to evacuate your beach bungalow during a tsunami, is a different story.
USA is a country, not an empire. There are plenty of countries today that are older than 250 yrs old. There were many empires in the past that lasted longer than 250 yrs. This is fear mongering propaganda.
Michael Hudson's latest books are very insightful into the economics behind the fall of empires. Concentration of wealth and the increasing debt of the rest of the people are huge factors.
Freedom and human rights were such an interesting human social experiment. I guess monarchies and dictatorships will rule the future world, same as in the old times, but with different appearances.
Rights of Man was always a farce
Indeed. In the future our leaders can increasingly justify their rule not only by arguing superiority not only in power, wealth and achievement but physical and mental capacity perhaps even becoming superhuman/homo deus afforded by their authority and influence. This was foreshadowed in books like Dune where feudalism not only dies out but remerges as the dominate social order, with an emperor and nobility and a class of humans upgraded to become a higher being like Mentats or Bene Gesserit.
You wish a King my dear! Instead you have the scum Harris/Trump😂
As far back as 1830 there were warnings.
Tocqueville predicted that the American experiment would endure until Congress discovers that it can bribe the public with the public’s money.
What is a tax credit if not a government bribe? “Do this and pay less taxes, and don’t vote for the other side because they’ll take this tax credit away.”
@in4ser Before all that happens again don't we have to face off against the AI...
I will say this, regardless of what side you are on, decline and destruction is the eventual end of every society, whether by internal or external forces. There are no societies that have stayed the same, they either adapt or go extinct and they are never truly the same afterwards.
There was once a dream called democracy. You could only whisper it's name
The cycle description seems to be quite accurate. That 250 year span idea is not a "one fits all model". Roman empire lasted far longer, seems like "American" one is already in decline after cca. 80 years. Soviet empire collapsed in 50 years...
What it meant was the "Pax Romana" which lasted approximately 200+ years. Rome goes through a lot of different cycles. Kingdom, Republic, Empire (Pax Romana Only), Byzantine. Each compromising of 200+ yrs of peak rise and fall.
@@LillianMotaka its a bullshit prediction thats banking on something fuckin happen somewhere between 100-500 years from now…. Aka worthless vague bullshit
@@LillianMot around 250 but yes.
US won't last that long coz it's not medieval era but this is the modern era of science and technology.
US can fall through mass immigration and dictatorship which will brought down their hegemony......
The Russian Empire predated the USSR. Russia didn't become the largest country in the world by hanging around Moscow.
I give you points for mentioning the Soviet Empire existed but it lasted 70 years FYI
I wonder if the same premise can be applied to a business; as many rise through innovation, taking business from other companies, go through a stage of complacency, become outdated and inefficient, then get overtaken by more competitive businesses and close or are bought out. Where I work, there seems a very top heavy management, lots of nepotism and cronyism that has caused different factions, and there's very little discipline.
I feel like that just because once management becomes content with the profits there is really no need for extra innovation as the money keeps coming in until its too late.
True
Yes, there is an old saying that goes something like this (paraphrased): "The first generation founds, the second generation expands, and the third generation cashes out and destroys."
I like Mark Twain's quip, ' History doesn't repeat itself but it rhymes'. Historicity is a valuable window on macro human nature but wholly inadequate for the analysis of our present unprecedented predicament
Actually there are only 3 stages; rise, decline , collapse. Currently great Britain is in the collapse phase which will be completed when northern Ireland and Scotland secede. America is in the end of the decline stage, with the collapse phase beginning as soon as next year
I think it depends on the outcome of the election. One party seems to be aware of the decline and taking steps to reverse it. The other party is blissfully unaware of it and in denial of it. And those parties are probably the opposite of what everyone thinks they are.
I think its a little bold to claim that the USA can collapse any time soon, dont you think?
Britain is in decline period
@@ADrunkBassist I think they are aware. They're just staying with the script
@@seanemery1917 then they made a mistake and it cost them.
If all empires follow the same cycle, we should see the same pattern in East and South Asia too. And Egypt, and in sub-Saharan African empires. Glubb also omits the Byzantine empire, the Norse civilization, Charlemagne's Empire, and the Mongols (Temujin/Ghengis Khan's empire). Sign of a good theorist is when they spend more time on the exceptions than the main pattern.
If the introduction of outside ideas/cultures is what causes an empire to fall, then that empire, like all empires, is something that was only ever going to be temporary anyway. Change is the only constant, not King and country.
Cheers fellow doomers. We all know the end is coming, so my advice: live your best life, do what you never thought you could and leave something behind worth remembering.
Sadly, after we are replaced, no one will care.
Sad that it's a wimper not with a bang. Would prefer to go out in a blaze of glory.
this time, there will be no one left to remember.
Seems like you want us to be hedonistic. Instead we should join the rebellious
@ no, sounds like you’re projecting. I’m saying create something worth remembering; family, art, music. Not to watch goyslop, sign up for onlyfans and be a brainlet consoomer.
Love your videos ThinkingWest very insightful
Babe, wake up. *ThinkingWest* uploaded another banger.
I know, I like that part how he underscored how racial purity is a key factor in keeping your empire in fighting trim! As he said, look at England, where are all the white Anglo saxons? All you see sometimes is the non-white former subject peoples, now mingling freely on the home soil. I mean they're all Brits, once they become a formal citizen on the country, but we know what he meant.
Proverbs 16:18 -Pride goeth before destruction, and an haughty spirit before a fall.
01:10 - So, btw. it is 2024 now. USA was announced in 1778. So 2024-1778 = .... 246... So, is it the last presidential term before the fall???
We are living through the collapse of the US empire. 100%
And you know what..... it's time. Does is suck for us? Absolutely. Is it necessary for the overall continuation of humanity and the survival of our planet as a whole? 100%
And please don't misinterpret that. I need to be clear that I'm not happy about it. I'm not celebrating the fall of the empire in which I reside. I just understand that, collectively, humans have not yet evolved to break the cycle of Empires, and we will remain in that loop until we do.
I'm just trying to focus on what follows the collapse of an empire, according to the cycle:
New beginning. And it is from this that I derive hope
It's been prophesied that Trump will be the last USA president. So, who knows ? It may come true.
"There's nothing new under the sun."
Dividing the Roman civilization into two eras seems arbitrary - basically just to fit it into the 250-year theory.
Because Rome is the only successful civilization that was able to cure it's demise. Their cycle from Kingdom, Republic, Empire to Byzantine are the perfect representation on that. Each has their own 250 years of peak civilization.
@@LillianMot But Rome's intellectual peak only happened for once , rest of the time they just somehow held power till Arabs ended them
It's not arbitrary. The republic and the empire were vastly different.
@@NatsocRevolutionaryI am no expert but am curious as to what the difference between Rome in 50 BC to Rome in 50 AD was. I know it was a Republic but the government was extremely corrupt well before the civil wars. And it had already conquered much of Europe before Caesar crossed the Rubicon.
Yes Octavian is known as the first Emperor but for the average citizen what changed?
Hard times make strong men strong men make good times good times make week men week men make hard times the west is most def at the week men stage thats 100% fact
Giving rights to women creates weak hard times* fixed it for you
This theory is brilliantly explicated by Toynbee, and I have the feeling that Toynbee's work is the real source of the work by the man featured in this video. (Not to accuse anyone of plagiarism, just recommending that history fans get hold of Toynbee's A Study of History--there is a multi-volume edition and a one-volume edition as well).
I think once trump fails to actually get anything accomplished people will understand that there is no changing course, and decadence will follow.
I also think trump doesnt have the philosopical dept to cure society of its illness. Look at his administration at the last time. America and the west seems too far gone. The cultural zeitgeist of degenaracy have completely taken over. And the birth rate of immigrants to those that have non european ancestry are completely above white people.
We are there...
Great video
Aside from the inaccuracies and omissions already discussed in the comments there is also a question being begged here. The assumption that empires are a good thing and that we should learn how to prevent their decline.
Napoleon Bonaparte observed this he once said that the coalition of his enemies are getting stronger because they learned from his battle tactics k!
The cause of decline is taxes and inflation. You can see this clearly in imperial Rome, that pretty much inflated their currency, the denarius, to nothing over a period of centuries. Shrink the government back to its founding size and take away the money printer, and any of these empires could have come roaring back.
Trump is proof that our time is almost up.
They should do a documentary about this on tv , Netflix and Amazon prime
We ARE the documentary!
@ not everyone uses UA-cam
In the case of the British and many recent European colonists, it was commerce that kickstarted the empire, not conquest.
commerce may have kick-started it but conquest/domination is/was necessary to EXPAND it!
Man doesnt understand history one bit….
@@robertjames4953 well then his steps are on the wrong order!
I think there’s some bias in studying the empires cause of how the latter stages portray the earlier ones, but overall it holds up and says more about human nature imo
I almost completely agree with this analysis. Although, the Byzantine Empire is not that good of a comparison for any of the modern world's own ''empires.''
The fact that most of us are sufficiently educated, globalization has taken us over, there are worldwide institutions like the UN overseeing most things and overall Earth feels like a tiny playground that can be traversed in the matter of a single day, implies to me that as a whole, the world could be viewed as one singular, unified empire of Humans, that's in its late stages of Decadence, but there's one big element that's changed - this ''empire'' will continue to tear itself apart, and unlike the Byzantines, no Ottomans will ever arrive to dance atop our corpses and our destroyed cities.
True. There will be no outside force to put out the dying flame, so it will just keep burning out until it's fully exhausted.
Space impacts and volcanoes wiped out many empires in recorded history. This is a fact they ignore. We`re next.
The part about the difficulties of accepting foreigners is fascinating(8:03). It sounds like there should never be a large amount of immigrants accepted into any country.
Not just foreigners but unassimilated foreigners.
But yeah, Roman republic at its height is filled with italians that were recently granted roman citizenship. Good thing though by the end of the civil war, they assimilated into the system because of their shared history fighting with the romans and became part of the strength of the roman empire.
Straight up racism,
@@TheLogg So what? Better to be a "racist" than a traitor. I could never imagine betraying my country like you are betraying yours.
@@StudiesOfTheAncientNearEast Being a racist is a traitor. All men were created equal and the statue of liberty of literally tells immigrants to be free in the US. Disagreeing with this is disagreeing with the founding fathers so who is the traitor then?
@@TheLogg Wow you Americans are really self-centred huh? Im from Slovakia, so I do not care about your founding fathers. And not to mention that your nation was founded on inherently liberal principles of "freedom". We are Slavs, and we suffered enough as it is throughout history, so we will not partake of the wine of your decadence. You can reap what you have sown on your own. If this means that we are "racist" I do not care. I priorize my people first not foreigners. We have ZERO moral obligation to take in anyone since it was the west who looted and colonized the world.
"Civilizations" or more like States/National identities in today's present may fall in cycles, but humanity advances as a whole. A stronger and wider identity grows from the lessons and the research of the previous ones. Institutions have challenges that will require deeper knowledge on how to regulate human memory and emotions through multiple generations. The less we forget the hard lessons of the past to appreciate and develop the present, the longer the cycles can become for such institutions. Yet, as mentioned before, even if they fall, the cumulative consciousness grows. We have a great life ahead of us, and the willingness to make the greatest out of it, helping others and managing the strength to stay kind in a violent world will see us to the next golden era. Cheers, great thinkers of the web.
Funny how your post gets almost no likes. Just proves people here watch and comment to trap themselves in their self-made doomer echo chamber.
@@jfrd-pw4hk It is a possibility hahahaha but you read it, and I think you see the truth behind it. This message has fulfilled its purpose, my friend. We should share our ideas to make the world a better place. Thank you very much for your attention. Let's keep on growing. :D
"The Empire long divided must unite. And long united must divide. Thus it has ever been"
-Romance of the Three Kingdoms
Hard to agree that the Roman Empire in year 180 AD, the year Marcus Aurelius died, ending the Golden Age of the empire. The empire lasted another 300-400 years, despite its dysfunction. So like every theory, it is lame.
Glubb did not say that the fallen empire evaporated. He said that when it fell there would still be many people alive, usually, and that some form of government might even continue for some time, but it would be a shadow of its former self and would continue to decline.
The ones that did disappear didn't do so because of the initial collapse, but from when outsiders invaded and destroyed what was left. Even so, there were generally people left behind.
Wasn’t entirely obvious until 8:00, but this is a fascist propaganda video loosely based on Glubb’s writing. Pseudointellectualism at its jankiest.
Yep. It is actually focused on immigration as the boogeyman. Right out of the Fascist handbook. Hitler had his jews, Trump has "illegal" immigrants coming over the southern border.
We are somehow living in all of these eras at the same time.
A great history lesson to ponder upon. The current virulent infighting amongst this nation's leaders as our enemies rejoice and strengthen sadly follows the familiar fatalistic pattern.
He basically plagiarized Ibn Khaldoun and splashed in some racist dog wistles.
Glubb has been debunked many times, including in this comment section. The main takeaway, which is true in my experience, is that the last stage before collapse is decadence - that appears to be the main universal, and it applies to businesses or even intellectual movements.
Is it a coincidence that the stages of life of the empire mirror the stages of life of the individual.
How so? 🤔
EXCELLENT ! ! You got it man ! !
Yep..you can see a number of the stages right here in America. If you use the 250 yr mark of typical historical empires, and apply it to the US, using 1776 as a starting year of the American empire, 2026 is the year of 250 yrs.....and after this last election cycle and who got elected, 2026 mark will give the world an real good look at what the republicans and trump will contribute for a faster decline of the US. I see the "it's about about the cash" stage, that certainly is true now, in general in America. No one cares about integrity or fraud or corruption, just show me the money.
Feel like it’s more nuanced than that. Trump putting forward a very homogenizing policy with an attempt to reinstate American values and faith. Unfortunately there’s unbelievable levels of division because of him. He’s got some good and some bad. I think those on the left will tear the country apart to ensure non of his policies are successful. Unfortunately his ego makes them not care about the outcome.
Wow, this is fascinating!! Thank you for sharing 🙏❤️
A lot of countries today are not empires but all are suffering from decadence to a certain extent due to globalisation and the rule of the global empire that is the US which is in its decadence phase. A lot of people think the people's republic of China is an empire but it is not, it will fade not as an empire but as an imperial subject nation, what happens afterwards would be its imperial phase just like many dynasties before it. The Sui had a short run followed by the t'ang which is a real empire, the yuan was a short run polity followed by the longer ming-qing continuum. Non empires in today's world suffer the decadence phase because they are all collaterals of the real US empire that is on its last legs.
The us is a informal empire
Ibn khaldoun said 1000 years ago in his cycle of the civilization … so actually he’s the first!
Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results. ' --- Albert Einstein
Einstein never said that nonsense
@@johnsondoeboy2772 I did. - Albert Einstein
Empires rise and fall. However, some blood lines have ridden this 'waves' for thousands of years.
@@bobsmith3560 Are you talking about the Illuminati or are you being Antisemitic?
Some of them begin with R
@@theanarchist4312 ... and ends with the letter d?
@@JaimeDelPuertoyes, Royal leader ghengis khan of the Mongolian lanD, millions of descendants. His descendants alone outnumber all the Jews in the world 😅.
Remember in the eyes of science “survival of the fittest” doesn’t mean that the fittest are the most rich, but the most numerous descendants, so ghengis khan lineage rules the world more than any other…
Double edit: I guess this makes the Charlemagne lineage the one that rules the world 😂❤
@@JaimeDelPuerto Ronald McDonald?
His Proposal is Majoritely True but not Universal and can still Vary in Significance to Different Kinds of Empires.
Thank You For The Well-Written Input. Seriously though, why write in such a manner? Is it speech-to-text or poor translation? I'm genuinely curious.
@@gessieI'll just Capitalize every Word that I find Important to Further the Context of my Points, like *Now* currently! so it's Definitely not poor translation.
I've just discovered this great channel. Fantastic!
Interesting but too simplistic to be true? Was the end stage of (western imperial) Rome decadence? Only if you regard Christianity as 'decadent'. What if the empire is a 'nation of immigrants' like America? The US has absorbed them before so - if they finally adopt a strong border policy to give absorption a chance - why not again? Masses of foreigners therefore don't necessarily herald the end.
Nonetheless Glubb's hypothesis resonates, it makes sense. It doesn't have to be exactly identical for every empire but a cycle makes sense. Can we in the West successfully reset? Yes, because unlike in the past we have a reset button called - democracy.
Rome was in decline when Constantine moved the capital to Byzantium and made the religion of the underclass the official religion of the empire.
Well said
Caused by a group that has historically been exiled consistently by almost every country they set their foot in
Holds true if you don't take into account Egypt, Rome, China, India, the Incas (much shorter), et cetera. In other words, selected facts and selected cultures.
You can map China on to its dynasties. Each one runs like its own empire.
@@trueblueclue The Shang lasted approximately 600 years; the Zhou, 800 years. So, even if the various dynasties are treated as separate and distinct entities, the 250 year rule does not apply.
@@hallitoff3883 This also shows that you can manipulate this data by picking what counts.
Sometimes an internal palace coup that starts a new dynasty counts as a new empire, if that helps get you closer to the desired average. Other times, you look at the whole state until there's an outside conquest or a large scale collapse.
Like you looked at Rome (especially Western Rome) there were plenty of "dynasties" that didn't even last until the founding emperor's natural death. So we don't count that.
Pax romana lasted for approximately 250yrs.
People stay the same regardless of whatever technology is available. They just do the same things with greater ease.
Brilliant synopsis
I think that the stages leading towards the final stage and the end of these empires shouldn't be seen negatively and should simply be seen as the progression of peoples within progressing societies. The final stage being a weakened fragmented state, caused by divsion and a lack of respect towards the conditions of there lifestyle, or complacency does weaken the collective streagth of the people but also allows for new branchs of culture and social harmony to be formed. Effectively ending an empire but preserving culture and values. The challenge in my head isnt trying to prevent the cycle its to find ways of not killing each other and blowing everything up in our shows of strength and in spreading of influence.
Like the ecological succession of a forest after a wildfire or a clearcutting...
One point. An empire can last a long time after it has gone broke and lost its spirit. Rome was broke in 249 AD but lasted until 476 AD. America went broke in 2008 but we can limp along for centuries before we are conquered by new barbarians.
Not likely to limp along for long...too many competing interests tearing at the fabric...the jackals and hyenas are persistent!
Timeline is shorter, we don’t have another century.
Eastern Rome lasted even longer. It was split into an Eastern and Western empire.
"limp along"? The US has the world's strongest economy, is the only superpower, and is still a leader in science and engineering. The future is shaky with domestic politics and increasing wealth gap, but the country is far from limping. Especially compared to all other major powers.
@@danielcunningham7319 The internet sped everything up; a letter that would have taken 6 weeks to travel across the Roman Empire now takes 2 seconds. People can also see and hear events happening thousands of kilometres away in effectively real time as well.
Excellent presentation, thank you.
Underrated channel 🤩
Thanks! 🙏
Excellent argument and one we best ponder and if we recognize ourselves we best take action by first acknowledging the trend then identify and support a leader also sees the corrections required. History is replete with the cries, "if only we had known."
The British empire is in the last stage happily paving the way to a glorious quiet disappearance.
Interestingly enough, I studied English history. The predominant ethnicities were Celts, Vikings and Germanics. The term WASP, white Anglo-Saxon Protestant, was probably meant as a slur at some point. But for those who fit the description, we could care less and take pride in it - not in an Arian way, though. I propose that since the Celts were subdued and the Vikings were eventually mostly pushed back off the island, the Germanics created the English nationality. Other cultures gave them the name English. So, IMO the British empire was a prequel to the rise of the Germans, just w/ different families.
Britain hasn't been an empire for almost a century, and has enjoyed global influence on par with Mexico or perhaps south Africa for the past 20 years.
Even from Nepal, this sounds like the story of US. God bless
Who said empires are good?
We Humans will always remain the same even in a post apocalyptic world😢
Unless it's a military invasion I don't think an influx of foreigners is a reason for decline. Rome achieved power because of the foreigners they assimilated. Many of their promenant families, traditions, tactics and laws weren't even latin let alone Roman. The US is another example where its power source cones from diversity.
They gained from these foreigners because they could tax them and use them to recruit soliders. Also another border. Lets not act as if the benefits of Rome were always the best for whom they conquered. Rome fell due to border invasions but a massive foreign invasion comes in many forms. The so called invader may not think of themselves as one they are only looking for a better life you would think. However its not our nations responsibility to take care of these people when we are struggling to take care of those already populating the land.
But to be fair, one of the reasons for Rome's decline came from its reliance on foreign mercenaries as well as foreign (and slave) labor, because no one wanted to do the necessary "labor" (jobs like construction workers, servicemen and so on). I would agree with you that Rome originally benefitted from it, but in the end, it did contribute to their decline quite significantly. Also, I think that it is a more true for Europe than US because the original inhabitants are dying out and foreigners don't feel the need to assimilate because they have their own communities.
And consequently fell because of it
Abraham Lincoln once said, "if destruction be our lot, it will not come from abroad... It most certainly will come from within."
And the tribes that settled on invitation or with permission by and of the Romans within the Empire’s borders are now he ones who pillaged Rome three times and ultimately brought about the Fall of Rome, or at least the Western Empire.
Very well organized and brief.
Glubb was quite possibly inspired by Ibn Khaldun, who wrote about this life cucle of empires in 1377
Thank you very much for introducing me to this way of thinking about the current state of my particular country of Britain. Now the perceived social fracture and discord seems to make sense. I now feel like a sadder but wiser man.
Quick pronunciation note. Danube is pronounced "DAN-yoob"
Great video! I got to say that I think that atomics play a new and very complicated variable from the previous models.
Trying to find an Australian on a Sydney train is almost impossible these days.
Italian-Samoan Australian born man here in Sydney, I assume you mean British. I'm afraid there aren't a lot of them in the city. They come out for royal visits and patriotic celebrations. I had the pleasure of finding one at King Charles visit, today. I just finished high school recently, so I can confirm that we are a hated minority. I resent the anti men anti Australian agenda that has permeated into the public education system to make way for all the cultural enrichment and diversity.
Kangarooes and bush people?, maybe they don't use train.
If you mean white people, then most of them use their cars because 99% of them are depressed and have social anxiety and afraid of any kind of social interactions. Also its funny because if anything immigrants are delaying the collapse. Ask any brown kid or Asian kid what they want to become when they grow up, they will say astronaut, engineer, doctors etc. Ask white kids and they will say youtuber, influencer, blah blah. Go to universities and hardest, important degrees like engineering and medicine are all filled with asians and indians, but useless degrees are filled with white people. Without white privilege, their life would be very different. Lets say if an Asian had the same life curve as your average white millenial or gen Z nowadays, they would be homeless on the street.
Spot the Aussie
Even the migrants are homeless
Would be hard to find an aboriginal on a train in downtown Sydney I suppose…..
It’s much simpler than this, the cycle is a sine wave from a society that emphasizes We to one that promotes Me. If catastrophe happens during the We phase, society is likelier to survive, but the Me cycle is characterized by rigidity. The same catastrophe is more likely to be existential. I suggest reading Amaranthine: How to Create a Regenerative Civilization Using Artificial Intelligence.
It's interesting you speak of collectivist and individualist cycles. Spiral Dynamics does this too but adds more complexity to it, being that societies (and organisations and individuals) move like a pendulum, both in me - we cycles and in one direction regarding values basically
@@CamouflageMaster Thx, I will check out SD
Living through the fall of western Rome rn
The former Empires did not have electronically powered digital calculators with long-term electronic storage