Is Ukraine running out of soldiers?
Вставка
- Опубліковано 2 чер 2024
- I answer the question of whether Ukraine can sustain the losses in the war, and what it means that they are losing experienced soldiers on the frontlines.
0:00 Intro
0:43 Russian casualties
1:48 American estimates
2:35 Ukrainian losses
3:00 Draft dodgers
3:58 Estimating mobilization potential
4:54 A contest of willpower
5:59 Casualtiest are a training problem
Follow me on Mastodon as @anderspuck@krigskunst.social.
There are less than 20 million people in Ukraine now. You forgot to take into account that around 10 million people left Ukraine+ Ukraine doesn't have Crimea, Donjeck, Lugansk, Zaporizia and half of Kherson oblasts.
I am from Ukraine Kiev and I am agree with you. He doesn’t k ow what he us talking
That's still plenty of people. Maybe then they can't sustain it for the multiple "decades" mentioned, but just for a single decade. Doesn't make much of a difference to the point of the video.
Moreover, there'd be much greater pecentage of the non-fit-for-combat people leaving Ukraine than staying, and Ukraine is trying to get some people back from abroad. Also, there's some number of people in the occupied areas engaging in guerilla warfare. All in all, the numbers are way fuzzier than this, with the 20mil being the very low estimate and 40mil the high one. Realistically it's somewhere in the middle.
The UN estimated in 2023 that 36.7 million people lived within the borders that Ukraine controlled. The absolute lowest estimate was 28 million, which was for 2022. This means that at most roughly 8 million refugees were simultaneously outside Ukraine - many have since returned, and most were women and children anyway.
The problem is that, with all due respect, it is impossible for Ukraine to mobilise 10 million people. Once you filter down eligibility - age, gender, fitness, social conditions, job - you end up with about 3% of your population being draftable before your economy runs into serious problems with worker shortages, particularly skilled workers in key areas that will have a knock on effect to other areas of the economy. 3% of 36.7m is 1.2m. Currently Ukraine's army is about 500,000 strong, minus ~200,000 casualties means they've already used 700,000 of their theoretical 1.2m manpower budget.
@@shaddaboop7998 I agree that drafting 25% of your population just won't do, but the point is that's the pool Ukraine has, not that they'll draft them all at the same time. It's replacements.
Not to mention that modern medicine can patch up a technical casualty in a way that won't make them fit for combat again, but they can perform some work in the wider economy, plus many modern jobs don't have too physically intensive requirements.
So yeah, over the course of the next 10-15 years, Ukraine will have enough peopel to dip into if need be, but that obviously doesn't say anything about their willingness to be drafted.
@tlk889 Yes, and no, you got to take into account how much of that percentage is old or young and do they want to fight or not sure they have millions of people but a good chunk of it are mostly elderly people who are not in the best shape and a good chuck of people who don't want to fight.
You forgot to mention that out of that 40 million, millions have escaped the country. The real number is much lower.
Maybe 3 or so, so it's not much lower
what about those that came back home? It goes both ways
Ukraine had 44 millions people, between 2 to 3 millions became refugees, the vast majority of which were women, children and elders. Not men in military age.
So no, Ukraine still has more than 40 million people inside their own borders, and most of their males are there.
@@MIchaelSybi 10 million Ukrainians left the country (mostly women and children)
Well there’s something else we need to add here. Pre-war Ukraine had a population of 43 million. Keep in mind the population declined 8 million people in less than 25 years. 43 included Crimea and Donbas. There’s 4 million people in the Donbas republics prior to 2014 and 2.5 million people in Crimea. That’s 6.5 million people out of 43 million so 36.5 million. Then you have the territory that Russia has gained since then with the native population. If we trust Russia’s voting numbers that’s an extra 2.5 million people. So we are down to 34 million. 8 million refugees have left but 2.5 million remain outside of Ukraine. That’s 31.5 million. Plus the natural decline in the population and war related casualties, there would be less than that. BNE news found 29 million people in Ukraine according to the Ukrainian government. The male to female ratio is 46% males and 54% females. Not all males are fit for combat and Ukraine contains an older population. In reality it would be a lot less than 10 million.
Your short video was another eye opener....as usual. Thanks so much, Anders. Keep 'em coming, please!
I always enjoy hearing what you have to say. Your presentations are always informative, timely, and thought provoking. Thank you!
Dear Sir,
Do not stop making videos, please. Normal folks rarely have access to "professionals" such as yourself. Informing, the way you do, is appreciated.
Thank you.
Could not agree more!
This is not a professional omg
@bartvanpoppel22 I believe he is a military analyst...
@@bartvanpoppel22 Yes, he's not a professional, this UA-camr doesn't do any unboxing, any game or tutorial... maybe it's a TikToker, but he doesn't dance much neither...
@@bartvanpoppel22 he is a military analyst at the royal danish defense college if that doesn’t make him a professional i don’t know what does..
certainly more profound than mainstream media or the average blogger
For reference: in 1937, the population of Germany was about 56-57 million. In total in World War 2, over 13 million German soldiers were active.
In 1939 the unified Germany had 79.375.281 inhabitants - a lot more than the 1937 numbers.
The 13 million includes the people who were drafted from Austria, the Sudetenland, etc. The population was much larger in 1939 due to the annexations.
Usually the number of rear services soldiers is about 10x higher than the frontline soldiers - so the number of available combat troops is not 1/4th of the population.
That's not correct. It's something called the tooth to tail ratio - and it has varied a LOT through history. It definitely wasn't anywhere near 1:10 in WW1, in fact it was 2:1 for the US (2 frontline for 1 support).
And tooth to tail ratios depend on the war, the country, the equipment, and also the fact that the teeth get replaced over time. So an instant view will give a different tooth to tail ratio than a full account.
During the world wars, most countries could in industrialised warfare field about a tenth of their population. However that was nearly a hundred years ago, and warfare has changed once again, moved to a much more wider place, and the equipment is even more important than simple manpower. It's not that a country cant just put every person in a uniform, but how they are armed, supplied and supported off the battlefield that sustains the front line, so you need much more manpower to keep a smaller number of soldiers in the fight.
Це правильно для сучасних армій NATO, але не діє в Україні. Українці отримують не достатньо зброї наступу,
більше для оборони, щоб триматися проти сильнішого російського війська, але не перемогти його. Тому українці вимушені збільшувати кількість живої сили для стояння в окопах, як у часи першої світової війни. Зрозумілий підхід західних країн - дозувати зброю і утримувати конфлікт від розростання. Однак українці закінчуються. Нас не так багато, як пише ваша статистика
@@antoninakostushina2870 Slava Ukraini!
Ukr lost around 70k in the counteroffensive alone. KIA since the start of the war must be over 300k.
the thing about russia lying about the ukraine deaths stats is it makes no sense when they keep losing land
They are coping, leave them alone. They would believe a post from cnn saying that only 200 Ukrainians died while russia lost 2 million
Precise and reliable analytics (not)
@@k.safonov Yeah I think I underestimated it
thank you comrade :D
Thanks Anders, I was glad to hear from you and the information you provided was indeed helpful in getting some clarity with regard to what is ahead. Keep up the good work when you have time ! !
Your videos are the BEST!!! thanks for putting them out.
Thank you very much for an insightful video! Keep up the good work!
Jeg ser altid frem til dine videoer, som er så uddybende og oplysende. Vore nyhedsmedier belyser ikke krigen i Ukraine tilstrækkeligt, så tak fordi du deler din store viden og dine kompetencer med os.
no main media covers this conflict (except maybe Poland) sadly must rely on UA-cam bloggers.
It is pretty much the same in the U.K. MSM are serving the public who have a very short attention span and have a hunger for salacious stories about celebrities. The good news is we have some excellent resources on YT.
Krigens Døgn på DR dækker godt, men desværre kun en time om ugen. Anders Puck Nielsen er af og til med. Men du kender sikker allerede udsendelsen.
@@Bananskuden
Det gør jeg og synes også ligesom dig, at det er en god og belysende udsendelse, men netop kun 30 minutter om ugen, og til min store forargelse blev Krigens Døgn ikke sendt i 2 sommermåneder. Det er ligesom at nyhedens interesse er ovre, krigen fortsætter og der bør være mere focus på den, men godt vi har Anders Puck til at gøre os klogere på, hvad der sker i Ukraine.
Main Stream Media in the entire world is now pathological liars paid to spread lies, propaganda and misinformation. You can not trust anything they say... And the so called "fact checkers" is the worst.
Thank you. Your analysis is always super interesting and helps to clear up the picture.
Absolute class! You and Perun are the ones to follow. Thank you for sharing your perspectives :)
Perun for deep studies. I also recommend "Reporting from Ukraine" for his focus on facts and accuracy. He is often not first with news, but what he does report is accurate. He explains the tactical reasons for what both side is doing each local situation.
And 'unfortunately for russians' the outlook is not looking good for them
@@AndrewBlucher Perun is ukrainian shill and that's one of only less important flaws. Go for english version of Ostereich Bundesheer.
@piotrd.4850 he really isn't but sure
@piotrd.4850 wow...how didn't I see your comment to knock it out the park?!?
But yes...don't watch perun. You're obviously a russian simp, gru?!? Perun must have made you flood your house with tears 🤣🤡
Yes, perun has a little ukrainian in him he said once.
This is very enlightening - thanks for clearing this up. 👍
Thank you for this excellent video!! Your efforts are always appreciated as your experience and knowledge base stand well above most commentators both on UA-cam and traditional media. I'm always excited to see another of your productions pop up in my notifications!
Always glad to see your content Anders regardless of its length. Your commentary on this war is one of my favorite sources for its accuracy and responsibility to be accurate.
Thank you Anders , here’s your next beer on me
Thank you. I’ll enjoy it. 😊
😱😃 OMG ! It's Jackiee Chann.
@@PpAirO5 Shut up, Ethan Hawke. ;-)
@@anderspuckU should go to the front to keep american hegemony.
@@imtiazakand3174 Are you at any front fighting for any cause yourself?
Are you on your own
or are there other people around not shooting but supporting in other ways?
The major error with 1 in 4 is that you are including both under age and over military age. Historically 10% is more likely.
Yep. The whole calculation is way too simplified. Like how many people reach military age in Ukraine every year? Not saying it's right to send 16 year olds to the front but in principle one would need to overtake the birth rate in terms of losses for it to ever end. Vietnam war is a good example of how difficult it is to do that.
The data is there if he had bothered to look it up. Wikipedia has an easy to understand population pyramid, it shows fewer than 100,000 20-25 males AND females respectively . There's a huge population canyon from 15 to40. Then you have a Diaspora below .... It's not a pretty picture.
…and just walk through any town and imagine the unsoldierly quality of recruit you’d get if you had to choose a quarter of everyone you saw to be frontline fighters. And then having ‘creamed off’ those what you’d have left to do things like building, firefighting, farming, medics, truck driving, mothering and teaching etc. 1/4 of the population is a ridiculous estimate. This guy is deluded.
@@kylethompson1379 Which side of the two belligerents are you talking about?
Neither really. I'm just criticizing the methods used in this video to assess available manpower. @@pierre-zz9vs
thanks, Anders. i always appreciate your input.
Thank you for this... great explanation
Even the short videos are great little think-pieces. Thanks
The tooth-to-tail ratio numbers are going to be skewed. Much of the tail is in Poland, as it's like a big loading dock just waiting for things to be picked up and put to use. A whole lot of things are farmed out to Nato countries so Ukraine can use its manpower as it likes, without the huge amount of support needed in the rear.
interesting and valid point of view
Thats mainly intelligence and some training but bulk is still on Ukraine, supplies and ammunition handling is the biggest thing. Also, millions upon millions people have left Ukraine and its mostly young people. Even though men couldnt leave i meet Ukrainian guys EVERYWHERE here in Bratislava. I would say that draft pool is much much smaller than its suggested in the video.
@@Zoltan1251 In a distand german region in the west in a far countryside there are also quite a lot of young/military capable ukranian men I come across daily... I think all those number-crunchers on the internet never know exactly what they are talking about ...
@@cccpredarmy He is just missing tons of information. Ukraine HAD 40 million people BEFORE the war. Then lost Crimea and heavily populated part of east, then about 8-10 million refugees. Lets say that 20 million is still in Ukraine. This is the best number you can come to. How can he even say they have 40 million? Yeah, he is not that smart.
@@Zoltan1251 Not to mention that some percentage of ukrainians are of russian origin or pro russians or simply live on russian controlled teritory of Ukraine which exclude them from being able to be drafted by Ukraine
As always top quality content Anders! Good job!
Thank you, Anders, for another dose of clarity
The prewar population of Ukraine was 38 million. It is now only 20 million
The Source: wishful thinking.
@@IlyaDemidov nearly 6-9 million migrated out due to war situation(6mil according to UNrefugees 7.4 mil just in Europe alone according to reliefweb and 8-9 mil acording to a western media outlet which I don't recall its name at the moment) and near 9 mil are russian ethnics under russia now (there was around 11-12 million Russian ethnics living in Ukraine before the war of which 2.4 million lived in Crimea , 4.4 mil in Donetsk and around 2.3 mil in Luhansk according to google) and the population of Ukraine pre war according to various claims was 38-43 million so what remains is minimum 20 mil to maximum 28 mil living in Ukraine right now. and you can actually google my numbers if you don't believe me and you'll see that all these numbers are provided by reliable western medias.
edit: if you're pro Russia you would believe the 20 mil but if you're pro Ukraine you would probably believe the 28 mil number but to my own experience the both numbers are incorrect and the real population count must be something in between the two around 25 mil.
@@IlyaDemidov Not from how many Ukrainians are now scattered across Europe and UK it isn't
UN estimate for Ukraine's population in 2023 is 36,7 million people. So you're wrong.
@@rayj.4527 UN estimate is not wrong it's just you don't understand what it really means. 36.7 mil is for all of Ukraine as a whole including the parts under Russian occupation which has more than 9 mil population.
Excellent analysis. In WW2, 1.1 million Canadians served in the armed forces out of a population of just over 11 million in 1941. So 10% would be a good base line. Canada wasn’t invaded or occupied so I would expect more than 10% but 25% might be high. Even 10% would give a 4million strong force.
Ukraine has a definite advantage as NATO allies are helping with training. As with the Commonwealth air training program, it’s much easier to train where the risks are only training accidents and not enemy attacks.
You have to consider demographics, 1941 canada was much younger than todays ukraine or russia.
Many of those Canadians were conscripts who couldn't be sent overseas. Canada had critical manpower issues in its forces during the war.
Good point , the West will never survive these numbers, i'm building a bunker.
@@dougcoombes8497 Conscription didn't start until 1944, and had the usual effect (we hate being forced to do anything). By 1944, everyone had manpower issues. :(
@@jakubsevcik1392
True. You have a valid point.
But my impression is that Canadian WW2 troops were virtually all
very young men whereas today Ukrainian men up to age 60
seem to be involved in fighting the war.
And I'm pretty sure that today the percentage of Ukrainian troops who are women
is much higher than the percentage of Canadian WW2 troops who were women
(though of course in WW2 many women including Princess Elizabeth
were serving in support roles in the military).
So today's Ukrainian military is drawing on women and older men
much more than was the Canadian military of WW2.
It's also the case that during WW2 about half of Canadians lived on farms
producing food needed not only for Canada but also for Britain
and were needed to keep producing food.
I don't know the munbers for Ukraine today but I'm sure that
a lot fewer than half of Ukrainian men are working on farms,
especially since Russian attacks and minefields have made farming
impractical or impossible in much of Ukraine.
Educational as always. Thank you.
Thank you for this. I wondered about it.
During the height of Swedens "total defense strategy" 4.5 million people where part of the defense. 1 million were soldiers. Thats from a population of 8 million.
@@Mornomgir Out of a population of 8 million, how many are very young,ado,senior ? Also ,Youdefinitely need people to grow crops, to do medical,to provide services etc Out of an army ,how many are cooks, machinists ,maintenance ,etc and how many actually do the fighting on the battlefield . I doubt very much that out of 8 million people that you could actully produce 1million real battlefied soldiers.
@@edvsilas8281Easily. Finland got populatio 3.3 million and fielded 330k man 1939 and 500k man 1941. Womens Job was Cook and field hospitals. When line has brokened during winter war there was under age school classes figthing and they teacher was their NCO
@@edvsilas8281 Whats a real soldier in your mind? ww1 and 2 the vietnam war pretty much every war ever where fought by men with very little training. The Swedish mandatory military service spanned for a year or more with frequent "repmånads" until you were in your 50s. Which means you go back for weeks, every year or every other year, to get used to it again. If you actually havent heard of the insane defense strategy Sweden had throughout the cold war i can recommend that you look it up. 4th or 3rd largest Airforce in the world. Enough artillery to have a battery for each kilometer of coastline. A massive navy. Everything was fortified. The army was built around the notion that it should be able to defend itself alone against the full might of the soviet union.
Thank you Anders. Please keep the videos coming. You’re a prime source of reasoned analysis. Much appreciated.
Stephen in 🇦🇺
based on UN data January 2022 population of Ukraine Excluding Russian occupied territory: 36,744,636. and 8 million foreign nationals, women and children left Ukraine. so the total population of Ukraine is now 28 million. Don't forget that Ukraine's population pyramid is a constructive pyramid. where the young population is getting smaller
Thanks for that. Very helpful 👍
Great info, thank you!
Let’s hope that attrition will never become a problem for fighting. Enough have died already. If we help Ukraine engage in higher interest with fighting lives will be spared in the long run.
You may be interested in the latest video published by William Spaniel today
my guess is troops attrition is secondary issue if ukrainians manage to destroy enough tanks, planes, ammunition, fuel depots... of russians... cant fight effectively without advanced heavier equipment. Though drones exist but those need heavy artillery and other support methods. In long run lot of casualties for ukraine means they need also help running their farms and factories early years, so that doesnt sound so great for morale.
In my estimation I think Ukraine could lose well over 500k before things become a bit more critical
They are already there
@@mickie2412If they were already at that figure it would mean Ukraine effectively has no military left to fight .
So who is fighting on the front then ? And why is Ukrainian advancing on the battlefield .
500,000 is a complete exaggerations . It's more like wishful propaganda thinking on behalf of the Kremlin .
@@shaneb315 ua-cam.com/video/ARAylEJZy30/v-deo.htmlsi=UYfOzzq5Kvc2k_ec
Always look forward to your videos.
Excellent analysis. Well done.
US numbers only count Russian regular forces-the people who would rock up in Poland during a war with NATO. Ukraine numbers of enemy KIA include pro-Kremlin Chechen militias, DPR and LPR conscripts, foreign mercenaries-anyone who likely wouldn’t fight against NATO in Eastern Europe but need to be replaced when they die for Moscow to maintain combat effectiveness in Ukraine. It’s important to remember the motives of the people doing the counting.
It's not a difference in motives, but of metrics.
@@ronaldbell7429 The difference in metrics comes from a difference in motives.
@@MrAwawe The difference may also just be due to the available information sources. Perhaps those militia and mercenary casualties are harder to quantify? I don't know, but I wouldn't just jump to motives as being the only explanation.
Probably true, except the part about Ruzzian regular forces rocking up in Poland. The Ruzzians wouldn’t make it past the Baltic States.
Russia does have a border with Poland - Kaliningrad. @@bluemarlin8138
In WW1, France lost about 1.4m dead out of a population of 39m. UK lost about 900k from a similar population. Germany. 2m from about 60m.
It implies that around a 3% death rate (with more wounded) is possible, if horrific. So Ukraine can probably still fight even with a million dead. But much beyond this....I don't know that there is a hard cap, but WW1 was a very brutal war.
The Ukraine war has been horrific for Ukraine . Their WW1 tactic of charging the entrenched Russians has raised their death toll to over 400,000. They are now conscripting old men and young women and girls.
germany was at breaking point in every possible way near end of war.... and WW1 was very total war esque, ie everyone put everything they could to fight. It is wonder WW2 ever happened from these starting points , though all countries practically put all "dividend" of society for next 20 years to military equipment.... or rebuilding bombed cities. US had to organize marshall help sort food aid many places in europe early 1920s, it was that bad.
@@BruceMullen-iv8hx Yes, and I bet I know where you got this BS information.
@@BruceMullen-iv8hx Hello vatnik. Hows the weather in Moscow today?
@@BruceMullen-iv8hxYou lie, Woman can not be conscripted and the maximum age for men is 25. The maximum age for Russia is 30.
Thanks for another great vid.
As usually very informative and sound!
Always good to hear voices of reason on UA-cam
Another way of looking at it is that around 300,000 Ukrainian males turn 18 each year. I’m not saying that they are drafting every 18 year old (they aren’t) but it illustrates the cycle of natural regeneration.
its because you dont know how to do math. the births for the full year isnt 97,000@@SimonTmte
Ok sorry I didn’t realise you are would be so dumb that you compared annual data for the last 20 years with the first half of this year lmao.
Generally people compare data with the same time frames hahahah
Thank you for another great video, bro! Stay safe!
Excellent, thank you very much. Good timely information...
A reasoned presentation on this war is always welcome amidst a sea of partisan reports. Thank you for your balanced coverage.
Wars aren't noted for their honesty, centuries later when it's for stuffy professors to evaluate its bye the bye especially as other wars since have reduced it's relevance
Top info, thanks
tyty, amazing presentation as ever
Lovely, thanks
"Ukraine can continue this for decades." 4:52
What a horrific thought that this war could last that long.
If you want peace, prepare for war.
If you want to win an attritional war, prepare to outlast your enemy. The enemy needs to know it too. That's the only way the war can last shorter.
Well it was said already after 1 month that this may last tens of years. It wouldn't if NATO would take stick out of it's arse
One slight correction. The Ukrainian claim is 273,000 Russians (and proxies) killed and not 273k casualties. Whether the claim is accurate is another question but that is what they are claiming.
Thanks. Do you have a source?
It appears to me that the tendency is to account for both KIA and irrecoverable WIA, hence the use of the term "eliminated" by commentators such as Operator Starsky
@@anderspuckOperator Starsky himself could be a reliable source, I reckon, him being a Press Officer he should have access to what actually the official numbers are stated to be about 🤷
@anderspuck I believe I heard that on the telegraph podcast, Ukraine: The Latest, but I couldn't provide you with a specific episode
@@enricogattone432 Thanks. “Eliminated” is also the word the Ukrainians use officially. It makes sense that it would be killed and seriously wounded.
Thanks Anders!
Great video as always
I might be wrong, but I believed that Ukraines largest problem is lack of ammunition?
lack of everything from weapons, ammunition and soldiers, and now Poland have denied to send more weapons according to the PM ?
@@arnsteinholm7372 They've sent pretty much everything they realistically can without harming their own military readiness. What they meant is that they won't be sending anything that was set for their own troops anymore, but they will be sending equipment specifically designated for Ukraine.
Poland has sent more per capita than anyone else. They must be close to having nothing left they can send.
@@arnsteinholm7372 Poland hasn't denied Ukraine weapons. That was essentially a misunderstanding that certain elements of the media spun.
They have plenty of ammunition, but the number of people is extremely limited.
They had at the beginning of the war ~19 million people in Ukraine. Not 40 million!
50% are woman, makes 9.5 million, 50% of them are under or over age, makes ~5 million man.
The had losses of 420,000 death and over a million injured or crippled, so they could use only 3.5 million people.
But from this 3.5 million there are a lot which run the country, Repair things, building homes, creating products, creating weapons, farmer, bakery ... a lot of people are needed for ordinary things.
I am not sure how much the Ukraine have now, but they have possibly more ammunition as soldiers.
This is the reason why they want the 650,000 Ukrainian man back which are at the moment in Europe as refugees.
Yeah, spot on. The problem for both sides isn't about finding enough warm bodies to refill the ranks, it's about the loss of trained/experienced personnel. This is very dangerous and very intense warfare and getting people to be able to perform well in combat is difficult.
That's what the casualty rates eat away at.
And that in the end benefits Ukraine a bit, because of the western help with training.
The Russians are really bad in training.
@@Infiltator2 lol what are you saying, Ukrainian officers themselves in interview for Western media said NATO training is mostly irrelevant in the modern warfare against modern enemy, they say NATO instructors train Ukrainians to fight peasants and goat herders with AK-47 in guerilla warfare, because NATO never fought against modern enemy and its knowledge of midern war is only theoretical.
While Russia during this 1.5 years only continue to obtain modern warfare experience
@@Infiltator2😂😂 The western supa dupa training are useless. They have no clue how to fight this type of war. This is not afghanistan, or iraq, or b.s. coin operations. The proof is that the western trained Banderists how failed their "big" spring, summer, autumn, winter counteroffensive. 😉
@@lonewarrior9900I've read several accounts of Ukrainian soldiers rejecting NATO "doctrine"as an anachronism -that it doesn't work in this war.
More disturbing is the obvious lowballing of Ukrainian casualty estimates by the United States, uncritically regurgitated by Puck.
There is something very sick about Western UA-camrs and thinktank eggheads urging more Ukrainians on into the meat grinder, while using unreliable, or even fraudulent casualty figures to justify it all.
It’s good to hear your thoughts once more 👍
From the financial times:
Data on Ukraine’s male population, shared by the parliamentary economics committee, shows that of 11.1mn Ukrainian men aged between 25 and 60, only an estimated 3.7mn are eligible for mobilisation. The others are fighting, disabled, abroad or considered critical workers.
Congrtulations Adres for your realistic and brilliant reasoning
The answer of who is the one with the biggest losses lies on who hase been doing endless mobilizations which have reached the point of recruiting women and elderly and the one currently doing it is Ukraine
Currently there are approximately 28-29 million inhabitants in Ukraine.
Thank you!!
Altid godt at høre fra dig, Anders. Held og lykke med dine andre projekter!
Every year Ukraine Young men Will are turning 18 years old ready to train and fight ... And with more strength because a lot of those ukriane have father wounded by russia and they Will want revenge ...
Good perspective on a lingering question.
Interesting. Thank you
Russia’s Ministry of Labour has requested 230,000 certificates for family members of deceased combat veterans and over 750,000 certificates for combat veterans, which is several times more than before.
Source: Russian Media Outlet Vyorstka
With a 1 to 3 equipment loss my guess is even these numbers are conservative. The list of obituaries in Russia are going trough the roof, cemetaries grow rapidly. Shame Prigozhin no longer here to tell us how much casualties Russia is really taking...
They are preparing for prolonged war and massive mobilization with massive casualties.
I wouldn't be surprised if it turns out they have been working quietly towards making a mass mobilization possible. Meanwhile the West is still dilly-dallying around and thinking they can somehow dissuade Russia by not giving Ukraine absolutely everything they need.
Miss him in some ways he was a charismatic personality
The war is not only about soldiers. It is also about the capability to develop and produce weapons. Total relying on foreign help is a sign of the lost war. When the US decides to stop supplies - it is over.
Unfortunately there will be plenty of weapons on both sides in this war but not enough soldiers on Ukrainian side in a year or two.
Russia also produces the minimum now, but relies on the Soviet inheritance which is not replenishable nowadays.
@@sergii2945 False information. Military production is growing and growing fast, way more and faster growth than NATO all together.
@@Czhr43jh6hyx Fake news: ua-cam.com/video/ctrtAwT2sgs/v-deo.html
Actually, the EU is providing over 2/3rds of the support to Ukraine, so even if the US decides to stop supplies, it's not over. It would be worse for Ukraine if the EU decided to stop.
Great contribution!
THANK YOU SIR
When fighting for your home, you are probably much more motivated than when fighting in a foreign country, with no connection to you?
November 9. Ukraine is mobilizing women and 16 and 17 year olds
Based on WWII, 10% of the total population could be available for military service. Another rule of thumb was 25% of casualties were KIA/DOW/POW/MIA, 25% of injured were no longer available for military service, 25% were long term (>3 months) convalescents, and 25% were short term (
Thank you .
Russian ministry of labor ordered ~240000 death certificates.
This is a low bar now.
Which is consistent which Ukrainian general staff estimates.
Finally! Was suffering withdrawal symptoms 😅
You are suffering withdrawal symptoms from not getting youtube updates about a war? jeez louise
Nothing I can do about the existence of the invasion, nor about news about it flowing in my information space, especially because I do care about it. As probably is plainly understandable from my post, I joked about missing Anders' commentary about it, as he's accurate, insightful and utterly balanced without pretending to be morally neutral.
Don't worry anyway, I know you are just trolling, just taking advantage of your apparent lack of sense of humour to express my appreciation for this channel. Have a wonderful day 💛💙
@@enricogattone432 I'm not trolling though, it just sounded a bit odd to me. But I guess it just didn't register with my personal sense of humor.
You have a great day too
Nice to see you Mr Nielsen
I was already getting worried.
Thanks. !!
I’m not a war expert but this sounds very logical to me, I’m an American over 50 years old, if I was asked to go fight for another land I would unequivocally say NO, but if American was being attacked by Russia landing on our shores, I’d fight to the death, so that’s where Ukraians are at, fight or be enslaved
Blackrock would be proud of you...
And what a tens of thousands American soldiers are doing few hundreds military bases in various countries arround world . . . :)
France is roughly the same geographic size as Ukraine. In 1914, France population was a bit smaller (39.4M) than Ukraine's is 2022 (44M), although it was younger. France was able to withstand average losses of 1000 KIA per day, every day for over 4 years, and the French army was bigger in November 2018 than it was in 1914. Of course, it was an absolutely terrible toll, which nearly wiped out a generation. But if Ukraine is sustaining dreadful losses, they are nearly an order of magnitude smaller. France also had to sustain most of its defense industry, while Ukraine is largely "subcontracting" it to its allies.
Another example: when I was a young officer in the Swiss army in the 80s, Switzerland could mobilise, most of it within 24 hours, a force equivalent to 11% of its population, all equipped and with at least basic training... which would be 4.8+M soldiers if the same ratio was applied to Ukraine. What a country could do in peace time, why could a country fighting for its very survival not do?
Conclusion: No, Ukraine is not going to run out of soldiers. Neither will obviously RuSSia IF they fully mobilize... which is politically a very unlikely scenario.
That's a good example. Wikipedia says the French mobilised 8.8million over the war, a ratio of 22% - surprisingly close to Anders' estimate.
If you think every shell and bullet fired by the French army was made in France I have a bridge to sell you. I also suggest you go read about the Halifax explosion in 1917 (largest man made pre-atomic explosion). Why was a French ship full of explosives in a Canadian harbour if France was relying on French production to keep going?
dont training factor play in modern fight? ie back in WW1 days it could be son of farmer was given rifle and hat, and sent to frontline. Now that is just plain wasteful with weaponry being so powerful.... how to put it in words, in theory could mobilize a lot but thats basicly human wave attacks which didnt work in WW1 either, just wasted troops. Towards end of WW1 was planes and tanks, which now show main point: advanced,heavy equipment are key. So could it be seen as attrition of those, which side runs out first of trained crew+tank/artillery/other unit combos first... equipment unit alone aint super useful, also need ammo, and trained crew is many times more useful. Also logistics, support, cooks, medics, factories, repair shops and so on need to be running or they be just sitting in trenches waiting for something. So trying to grasp here "weak link" of attrition, what will run out as troops aint first one. Though if this is gonna be like WW1, 4 years marathon, then troops become more emphasized.
You are forgetting that nowadays medicine is much better than 100 years ago, so people can live much longer and here we have a huge amount of older people who can only barely be at army. Also you are forgetting about people who ran out of Ukraine and seized by Russia. And if you try to find news about mobilisation in Ukraine, here we have big problems with that
@@EpycStory I am not forgetting about the aging of the population, I specifically mentioned it!
But I did forget about the part of the Ukrainian population either supporting RuSSia, or seized by it.
However, even if the mobilisable population of Ukraine today is half that of France in 1914, it is still a lot. As I also said, Switzerland could readily mobilise 11% of its population, including over 15% foreigners, so more like 13% of its national population, and that was not so long ago.
I am sure Ukraine has its problems mobilizing men (and women), it is NEVER easy! Look at what happened in September last year in RuSSia; hundreds of thousands of young, educated men fled the country!
Thanks!
Why did we see more firefights during Vietnam over 50 years ago, but it's extremely difficult to find any firefights on the internet of the Russia-Ukraine War?
Two of the most interesting ways to estimate Russian dead are 1: Counting obituaries in Russia, and 2: Examining the death benefit payment line-item in the Russian national budget. The latter substantiates a KIA level well over 200,000.
A significant proportion of Russian KIAs are still listed as MIA, to make the numbers look better than they are - and so that the death benefit does not need to be paid. Unfortunately, no one (not even the Russian military) knows what that ratio is.
I wouldn't take the budget for death benefit too seriously, given that it's a forward-looking forecast, and not all of it will reach the intended beneficiaries...
@@cacwgm load of crap. We are waiting for you liars to come up with one individual who hasn't been paid. You just love manufacturing lies.
Been discussed extensively, but hundreds of thousands fled russia as well.
Bloody hell, if you're right, then Ukrainian estimates of Russian personnel losses might damn well be talking about KIAs. I know they're the invaders but Holy shit, why aren't they doing anything about it? They're getting creamed out there for some chekist's intangible goal.
@@playedout148 well millions left ukraine, so...
But you cannot take 25% of the population out of the economy and into uniform without consequence.
The largest percentage the US ever mobilized was 8.8% in WWII.
Ukrainian economy is bankrolled by Western countries
The Ukranians have the backing of the US and Europe to provide all of government funding, plus military training and aid. Peter Zeihan (another great YT) made a video at the start of Putin's SMO that even if Ukranian government had collapsed, European funded partisans would have become prevalent for a decade. Real talk, you can get a gun and a uniform, or you can be murdered by a Russian drunk mobik come to steal your toilet, aka Bucha.
Certainly there will be consequences, and they will need even more international aid to keep the economy afloat if they mobilize that many.
But also remember the US would've mobilized a lot more if Japan invaded US territory and occupied California, Oregon, and Washington.
But the percentage of population that Germany and the USSR mobilized was far greater. Both mobilized their entire manpower pool.
The US on the other hand was perfectly safe on the other side of the ocean.
That is what a part of the western economic aid and loans are for.
1:22 probably, but not necessarily. In theory, it is possible that even the Ukrainian numbers about Russian losses are too conservative.
I think you overestimate the amount of potential soldiers. Not everyone is fit for frontline combat, and that is where most of the losses are happening. A frontline soldier needs the right constitution, bodily and mentally, and needs to have at least some will to fight. Having someone who is not those things is worse than pointless. A soldier who is not willing to protect their fellow soldier is a liability at the front. Some of this can be remedied by a good training program, but a large group of people will still be unsuited even after that.
Há dois erros graves nesta fala:
1) Ele está contando toda a população como pró-Kiev, mas sabemos que o Donbass luta pelos russos e também sabemos que uma parte da população está como refugiada no exterior.
2) o país que usar toda a sua população em idade militar irá desmoronar, pq são essas pessoas que dirigem os transportes, que operam máquinas na indústria... em resumo, a população em idade militar tb é aquela que trabalha e garante que o exército tenha os itens necessários lá na ponta. O soldado na trincheira precisa vestir, comer, ter munições...
This also miss the fact that Ukraine lost population due to annexation, and that great number of Ukrainians managed to leave the country
Why does he keep confusing killed in action and casualties? The 275,000 are deaths according to ukraine. 300,000 is casualties according to US.
A good rule of thumb is that if you see a headline that asks a question or one that ends in a question mark then the answer is NO.
If it is true the headline would be a statement without the need for a question mark.
Latest figures stated that Ukraine population is currently 23 million
Welcome back, Anders. As always, better to have a short video of high quality, than the opposite. But your updates and general insight in this war is missed.
Ukraine have also the advantage of fighting for librating their country. While the Russians fights to keep Putin in power in Russia.
May be true, but irrelevant if Putin possesses the infinite lives cheat code - which it appears he does.
Ok, thats what you get server by BBC and The Sun. What abouth reallity? Who is sending arrest orders arround the EU, to get back people who dont want to fight? Ucraine or Russia,
really great away of explaining
When you fight for your country and your life people fight in small numbers they are never caught just look at irelands fight for many years
@Anders Puck Nielsen • Thanks for addressing an issue that keeps coming up. Your explanation is so much better tgan the speculation of everyone from trolls to military analyst wannabees. Good job. 👍
Slava Ukraini. Heroyam Slava. 💪🇺🇦🕊🌻
The current consensus is a ratio of 3 wounded for every KIA however it appears from russian soldiers complaints that there medical support is very poor, which would result in higher KIA to wounded ratio, whereas the Ukranians appear to have very good support to evacuate and treat their wounded. I would think that the Ukranian number of wounded would be far higher than there KIAs as a great many of their wounded return to the battlefield. This does not seem to be reflected in estimated casualty reports.
with no air support for wounded ukrainian soldiers, the sometimes lie waiting to be evacuated for several hours
Thanks for satisfying my curiosity
I'm thinking that when you see how civilian infrastructure is just as likely to be a target for the enemy.. it's easier to be motivated to actually get mobilized... walking to the shops, or actually fighting back... how would you rather die?
So is Ukraine similar to Japan in the end of WW2? No shortage of manpower but the experienced soldier-trainers being lost to combat instead of being used to teach the newcomers? Thanks for your videos!
At the end of WW2, Japan had been in a bloody retreat for over two years - this at the hands of the most powerful militaries the world had ever seen. There's probably greater validity in comparing that with Russia's present trajectory than Ukraines'.
Training faster than losing. Also number of veterans is growing
Well, several times Russian milbloggers have complained about Ukraine preserving officers and NCOs so their casualties are mostly replaceable, while Russia loses officers and junior command along with their privates.
They say Ukraine's army is degraded from fighting but retains quality, while their own army degrades from fighting but also loses quality over time.
Some amateur questions:
Are there any other significant limiting factors to mobilizing people to replace the sustained losses? How is Ukraine doing in terms of financing its military growth, equipping its new recruits with uniforms, weapons, etc.
You talked in this video about what seemed like the hypothetical maximum amount of manpower that Ukraine could make use of, but does Ukraine have what's necessary to maximize its potential?
Short answer... The allies are supplying Ukraine with all that stuff, including the cash to pay the soldiers. To continue the fight there are 2 conditions that must be fulfilled... Ukraine's resolve to fight, and the political will of the allies to continue to spend.
No, cash to pay soldiers is on Ukraine, the allies provide cash for social payments only
the only UA-camr who does not have the time to waste my time :)
Think the RU casualties are grossly underestimated, if we factor total RU troops sent to Ukraine so far, how many estimated left, the dismal number of retired RU vets, their continual mobilization needs, along with RU doctrine of attack, its easy to come up with a sky high figure of up to 500,000 RU casualties