Ukraine's strategic bombing of Russian oil refineries
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- Опубліковано 31 тра 2024
- Ukraine's drone strikes on Russian oil refineries can become a big problem for the Putin government. By targeting fuel production, Ukraine is trying to make the Russian war economy collapse.
I also discuss the U.S. opposition to these attacks, and whether it's legal to hit an oil refinery.
0:00 Strategic bombing campaigns
0:35 Ukraine hitting refineries
1:52 What a refinery does
3:21 How it hurts Russia
4:54 Collapsing Russia's war economy
7:05 It's just the beginning
8:23 U.S. opposition
9:35 Is it legal?
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As always excellent video
I am interested in your view about the US asked Ukraine to stop to target those refineries as the influence the fuel prices in the US.(in an election year) To me it doesn't make a lot of sense as I can't see how it has an influence on crude prices, and we (the West) have enough refining capacity.
@@buddy1155I guess it depends on whether Russia can find a buyer for all the extra crude oil. I think the only possible buyer is India, and they have started to scale back. So it could lead to an overall lower availability of fuel.
I am interested in a book or newsletter of jokes about the russian military. There must be such a book available soon given what a joke their army is😂😂😂
@@anderspuck Mr Nielsen do you plan on doing a video on where you see Ukraine's economy and military in 3 to 6 months with Russia targeting all of their thermal power plants.
The discussion about the legality of hitting oil refineries frustrates me to no end. They're fighting for survival and we're judging whether or not them hitting fuel production is legal? They must see us as complacent to the point of insane.
insane virtual signalling of urban noobs
80 years of peace did this.
@@gianmarcobuzzotti4517as opposed to 80 years of war where everyone is bloodthirsty and ready to kill at any moment? 🤔 if anything 80 years of peace has shown most people that war is just a game politicians play and we’re the chess pieces…
There's also no question as fuel refineries are a military target PERIOD, and power plants are a civilian target, so when I see Westerners criticizing us for striking russian military WHILE BEING SILENT ABOUT THEM DOING WAR CRIMES WITH DOUBLE TAP STRIKES ON CIVILIANS, I get absolutely furious!
@@TheeWolfiee1 that's such a self-victimizing standpoint. You and I are in it, and to blame, just as much as anyone else.
I was about to say.. but you said it.. if US. Dont like it.. maybe they should expedide that aid package
well, if i was the us, and gave them some tanks, and they used my tanks for atrocities, id be pissed;
also, id probably lose some elections and would be liable for legal action.
So yeah, I'd be willing to send over stuff under conditions,
and far less willing to send stuff if i had no right to set limitations.
@@peka2478 "liable for legal action"????? What is the matter with you? Do you suggest that ruzzia would have a valid cause of action that some court would consider based on the use of western-supplied weaponry against ruzzia, when ruzzia started the entire thing by an illegal, genocidal, lying invasion of a peaceful nation?
@@peka2478Unless it's Israel - in which case, go ahead...
Biden is probing to be no better than Trump. The latter is more obnoxious but his policies on Ukraine are much the same.
US betrayal EUROPE, we won t forget, kiss your TROJAN horse TRUMP !
It’s difficult to believe that an oil refinery is an illegal target, when the opposition does much worse.
All it has done is force the price of oil up making Russia even richer do much Israelistan has begged ZZelinsky to stop Europe can't afford to pay extra for oil with Israelistan 🇺🇸 charging 6X what Russia did for gas FYI Russian gas sales to Europe have increased again.
Germany went to Ukraine looking for war crimes their commission recorded 300 all against Ukraine. Do you think they will prosecute those UkroNazis that survive the war will be arrested in their thousands many will probably face execution especially since ZZelinsky told his troops to commit war crimes and film it for propaganda to frighten Russian's
I also invoke the principle of retaliatory measures/retaliation
What is absolutely surprising is how a Cessna 172 type drone can fly hundreds of kilometers across the Russian interior at slow speed and low altitude and make it all the way unhindered to a high value target!
They are not programmed to fly in a straight line and there is not just one. If they scramble a fighter jet, they are using huge resources to maybe down a drone the size and price of a Cessna..
And what is even more embarassing for the Russians is that they have not improved since Mathias Rust landed close to the Red Square in Moskow in 1987 ...
@@gmosc Yes but the cost of the fighter jet has nothing to do with the price of the drone and everything to do with saving the losses associated with a destroyed refinery.
@@yamaneko-ex8fy Very true. Maybe Putin doesn't want to ask for public help with observations of such flights given they never really happen!
If it really flew from Ukraine, millions of Ukrainians live in Russia and other antiprotons
What really ticks me off is that we are asking that Ukraine, who's in a fight for his survival, to be even more ethical and moral in this war than all the wars the West and US have implicated themselves in the past 40 years... all the while, Russia flagrantly disregards every international rule of war signed since the end of WWII.
Yeah. Its like one side can take their gloves off whilst the victim has to fight with an arm behind their back.
I pray Europe takes the role of the US given Russia's infiltration in our system. Fuck putin.
When n4ato bombed my country to ocupate and steal part of it (kosovo), they targeted bridges, all factories, whole energy production, chemical factories with extremely dangerous chemicals. In 3 months we lost more civillians than Ukraine in 2 years. Your hypocrisy is literally s4tanic.
Have you MET Israel
America isn't asking Ukraine to be more ethical & moral. It's asking Zelenskyy to stop winning so hard against a nation intent on ethnically cleansing Ukraine.
People whining about Trump & an imaginary "far right" haven't bothered to look at how truly evil our current Administration is.
@@crhu319 Have you any ability to explain what ISREAL has to do with RUSSIA ATTACKING UKRAINE!?
Create dilemmas, not problems. - Ryan MacBeth
Less fuel to the military? Operations slow down and lowers the pressure on the Ukrainian soldiers.
Less fuel to the civilians? Hurts the economy that is necessary to fund the military in the long run.
Russia increases defenses around refineries? That means something else becomes more vulnerable.
US betrayal EUROPE, we won t forget, kiss your TROJAN horse TRUMP !...
Less fuel for US customers? Prices will increase before elections.
Bigger prices before elections? Democrats will lose elections.
US urged Ukraine to halt strikes on Russian oil refineries? That means friendly fire.
For clueless idiots the likes of APN - US, EU are all customers of Russia. They are buying oil trough third countries and now they will pay even more for that. Which is why US urged Ukraine to halt strikes on Russian oil refineries. Sucks to be EU which are buying US oil which US is buying from third countries which are buying it from Russia. The circle jerk of Russian oil in nature.
Exactly. "Create dilemmans, not problems" (Ryan McBeth). I was about to write the same. This Ukrainian strategy is doing exactly that.
Russia made the west believe they were doomed, all of the sudden somebody crying 😮
I don't think Ryan said that. I think he was quoting or paraphrasing
Something to think about. Russia's vulnerability to small drones attacking deep within its territory is also an indication of its weakness relative to cruise missiles and stealthy bombers. This is Mathias Rust times a hundred.
Skyrocketing of traditional Russian paranoia is a blessing. I fully believe that Ukraine has sent its own Spetsnaz into Russia with drone operators in order to conduct "deep battle" operations.
Test
Russia's biggest strength (its size) is also its biggest weakness. How would one provide security for that much territory? Not just refineries, but pipelines, the entire network. Hypothetical scenario: how would Russia stop babushkas cruising about the countryside magnetically attaching thermite grenades with timed fuses to its pipelines? Sure, they could make the ground underneath the pipeline a "no-go" zone, but how to prevent cheap drones from attaching the thermite? It would be astronomically expensive to do that.
@@S0ulinth3machin3 How do you protect thousands of miles of pipeline? Can't do it. China has to worry about this too. Breaks in a couple of Russian pipelines would cut them off from oil.
My understanding is that Ukrainian attacks on refineries have dropped Russian refined oil products by 12-14%. They are now trying to import gasoline.
@@fh5926 I was being facetious with my last sentence. :)
To add to your great explanation: Crude oil is not a product russia can sell an unlimited amount of. It is limited by refinery capacity abroad. Nobody has refineries standing around idle, they all run at or near optimal capacity. So, sure cheap crude oil can replace a part of other countries imports but the current suppliers won't sit around idly, watching their market get taken over by russia.
So russia would have to _significantly_ lower the price of their crude oil to export lots of it, and there is costs involved in pumping oil, so russia can not lower the price indefinitely.
Not to mention it shows that russia is a complete joke army. 😂
US betrayal EUROPE, we won t forget, kiss your TROJAN horse TRUMP !...
India and China have dramatically cut imports of crude because of US secondary sanctions Indian and Chinese banks don't want to be sanctioned. Indian refineries will not buy crude from Sovflot ( Russian goverment) tankers and China which does 2 to 3% of trade with Russia do not want to loose trade with the West, their economy is already impacted they can't afford to lose trade for the small amount they do with Russia.
I have read that refineries made for "sweet" crude cannot handle the Urals "sour" crude.
India is being allowed to keep the oil markets balanced and fund Ru$$ia via the "shadow fleet," (even more than China). For now that is the best strategy. Until US Democrats win all branches on Nov 5th, then India can be leveraged to reduce the amount they are buying from Russia.
I am astounded that you event mention the 'legality' of striking Russian oil refineries. Has the world gone collectively mad?
A couple of comments: Most of the Russian population live in the western part of the country. And so it is also here that most of the refinery capacity is situated. Well in reach of the drones.
Russia do have some export of refined oil products, but most is exported as crude.
At this time of the year the farmers are in the fields. They also need a lot of diesel. And they have already been hit in the last two years. There are no restrictions on the export of food; but it seems that some customers do not risk buying from Russia, risking sanctions.
Finally notice that the drones no longer attack oil storage as previously but aims for the fracking towers.
Muscovite foods are simply inedible, after tasting them once people never buy them again.
Test
Strikes on oil refineries will hit some companies, but will not affect the economy in Russia as a whole. The profit of oil refining in Russia is insignificant, since most of the plants are quite old. Everything that will not be processed will simply be exported in the form of oil. If large capacities are put out of operation, then Russia will simply export gasoline and diesel from Belarus - the capacities of their plants will be enough to cover Russia's lack of fuel. But it will hit the whole world - because the amount of gasoline and diesel as a whole will decrease. Russian analysts (independent ones, whom I read) assess the damage from strikes on factories as serious for individual companies, but almost imperceptible for the economy.
There are neither independent analysts in Muscovy nor independent oil companies. A ridiculous idea that loss of something does not affect the Muscovite economy is typical for Muscovite propaganda.
@@pshh-pshh "If large capacities are put out of operation, then Russia will simply export gasoline and diesel from Belarus - the capacities of their plants will be enough to cover Russia's lack of fuel."
Utter rubbish. Byelorussia only has two oil refineries, both of which are fairly small scale. As for "export gasoline and diesel" from there? How exactly? Export it through Russia? Nope. Export it through Ukraine? Nope. Export it through Poland? Nope. Export it through Lithuania? Nope. Export it through Latvia? Nope. You don't seem to comprehend that the country is LAND LOCKED. That means any exports by land must transit somewhere else to reach a port. Russia is useless for that purpose and all of the other countries which border it are either at war with Russia or extremely hostile to Russia.
Do try and actually think through the geography of the situation before making ridiculous pronouncements.
Nobody seem to notice that Saudia Arabia is able to compensate for any missing oli from Russia. Basicially OPEC is trying to keep the price at 80-100USD. If price goes up, they increase production, and visa versa. So the US fear should make the US call Saudia Arabia, not Ukraine.
That is true, but there was recently a secret (leaked) metting between Trump and the Saudi Crown Prince. No details are known, but the working theory is that Trump was trying to convince him to massively lower oil production right before the election, causing US oil prices to skyrocket at that critical time. It is widely known that the Saudis would prefer Trump in the White House, so this theory is quite plausible. For that reason, I don´t think that Biden can rely on any help from the Saudis.
The issue isn't crude production. It's refined products production. Refinery capacity is already restrained, if Russia start importing refined fuels and exporting crude to make up for it we may see a decoupling of gas and diesel prices world wide from Crude oil price. This is where the "west" actually may have an advantage with significant refinery capacity that can be sanctioned off from Russian access, also reserving that capacity for the economies of "the west".
@@lindsaycole8409 we're talking about 10% of Russian refinery capacity currently not working due to those drone strikes, after additional 4% of downed capacity were already repaired and restarted last month. Why would that affect anything?... In real terms it's barely a dent even on the local scale, let alone global scale.
This only matters in speculative sense, as in, the price may shoot up based on fears while the real volume of deals remains the same
BRICS control now 80% of all oil reserves. The game is not that easy You think.
Look to Saudi Arabia: US out - China in.
Technically Venezuela could probably easily fill the potential gap Russia leaves behind. Biggest issue is that Venezuela is also heavily sanctioned.
Once again very insightful. It was very refreshing hearing you say "those who don't give weapons don't get a say in how we use weapons."
Did Anders really say that? I hope not.
@@valeriesolanas4077 He was referring to how the US asked Ukraine not to target Russian oil refineries due to concern it would lead to a global increase in oil prices and hurt the US economically prior to the election. And Ukraine's answer being to decline, leading to the American realization of the above.
@@Icetor01 aggree :) Also Biden will go down from the 'Zelenskij curse'.
upd - - failed. So, what happened? 'As a result of an explosion at the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company's substructure plant under construction in Phoenix, Arizona, one person was seriously injured', or 'A large fire occurred at an ammunition manufacturing plant in the U.S. state of Pennsylvania.'
As Ryan McBeth likes to say, create dilemmas for your enemy. don't make problems for your enemy, cuz a problem has a solution. Dilemmas have multiple bad solutions
McBeth is a midwitt who looks impressive to other midwits, such as yourself
@@bigdumbfatcat2869 If you were my cat, I'd shave your butt and teach you to walk backwards. How can you argue that dilemmas are easier to deal with than problems?
@@bigdumbfatcat2869If you were my cat, I'd shave your rear and teach you to walk backwards. How is a dilemma better than a problem?
@@bigdumbfatcat2869hey, do us a favor shave yer bum, and walk backwards from now on.
@@bigdumbfatcat2869 So you know this guy's whole life story from one comment, or what?
Ukraine is specifically interested in running Russia short on diesel and jet fuel. Gasoline is "a bonus" that annoys civilians, but diesel and jet fuel hit the transportation sector directly. Heating oil will become a problem down the line too if the Ukrainians are successful.
Against the background of the Russians attacking Hospitals, Schools, Residential Buildings, energy infrastructure and not following any rules at all, it seems extremely strange to discuss Ukraine's "right" to choose its targets! Also, it's a scandal that they didn't get all the help they needed to win this a year ago!
Look up ownership of Russian oil industry. Large part of it %-wise is actually owned by US 😅
US and west in general doesn't want Ukraine to win, but rather follow Kissinger's philosophy of balance of dissatisfactions. Destroying Russian oil industry tips this balance a bit into Ukrainian side. Also keep in mind that low oil prices / oil industry down killed ussr, and might kill Russia as well. Therefore it was never us intent to help Ukraine to win and fight back, but rather to bleed out both so they would eventually end hot phase. The problem it created is not unlike Chamberlain's peace treaty. While there is no decisive victory of Ukraine, Russia had enough time to develop tactics and tech to counter western systems and they're actively gathering data and sharing with Iran and China.
It might result in a scenario where western powers still fight mid-20 century warfare, while Russia Iran and China obliterate enemy with drone swarms, cruise and ballistic missiles. West has trained its enemy and will pay the price of its reluctancy.
@@micindir4213 Russia didn't develop any tactics or tech. Most educated Russians have already left the country and Russia doesn't have access to modern tech. So they are incapable of doing that. All they are capable of is sending in their zombies in human meat wave attacks and the bombing of civilian infrastructure.
@@micindir4213 ATP outlined that in a video yesterday and it does not change anything to me. If US gave Ukraine suitable weapons they could concentrate on strickt military targets!
@@micindir4213 The USA-owned portion of the Russian oil industry was seized in 2022. While many companies in the USA still claim to own portions of the Russian oil industry those claims are as valid as claims to sugarcane plantations in Cuba that were nationalized by Castro in 1959.
As for your military strategy argument...OMG..., I'm not going to fly to Mars to attempt to converse with you about that.
IF you think russia is attacking schools, hospitals and stuff. what you think about israel then>? Which does everything 1000x worse. The only point USA is not happy with ukraine hitting oil, is that it drives inflaiton in USA. Since global prices for crude/diesel/petrol goes up; thus inflation and cpy data goes up in USA and fed wants to cut rates right NOW and if they see a sticking or rebounding inflation they cant and it directly affects USA economy, thats why they dont let ukraine do it - in other words, usa does not care about ukraine at all, they use them as useful idiots as pawns to their own intrests; there is no "ally" or "love" invovled.
so the small kid in the yard
is getting the crap beaten out of him, and we're worrying if the gloves 🧤 he's wearing to defend himself, are rough or smooth ??? F me 😎
"it's not like the hospitals will stop working" ..unlike when Russia hits the Ukrainian electrical grid.
You could also interpret that sentence as a pass to Israel...
@tetsu2sweden indeed. Russia and Israel have strange bond that transcends time and politics
@@tetsu2sweden As soon as a military force occupies a hospital and keeps arms, hostages and soldiers within it, the hospital becomes a legitimate military target (just like transporting troops in ambulances is not okay). Under such circumstances Israel can legitimately target a hospital. Also, HAMAS lies. Like it did when one of its own missiles ran out of control and hit a hospital parking lot. They claimed hundreds of casualties due to an Israeli missile strike. I am more confident in Israel than HAMAS when it comes to telling the truth.
@@chrismath149 I don't doubt that Hamas does use hospitals and schools to provide human shields. They are beyond wrong to do so. That's still little consolation for the innocent civilians who went in for medical care and got blown up, or who sent their young children to school, never to return.
@@tetsu2sweden Inte gör så.. kriget i Ukraina är ett fullskaligt krig vi inte sett i Europa sedan WW2.
Hårda ord här men Israel och Palestina "krig, förtryck, Hamas" påverkar inte mycket.
Så låt oss fokusera på kriget i Ukraina. Hamas har vunnit informations kriget och det här börjar likna "Save Britney"
Missförstå mig rätt ;)
Edit: Var en down direkt så.. frågor: Vart bor Hamas tre ledare? ( två kanske nu ) Varför kan dom öppet gå på fotbollsmatcher runt om i världen och leva livet? Vad är deras totala förmögenhet?
Ta en fact check på den du.. Slutsats: Hamas är inget annat än ren business.
The targeting of the German petroleum supply chain was one of the big focuses of allied bombing in WWII. Post war statements by many German officials said it was one of several critical factors in shutting down their war economy. Much harder to put in a protected underground site than an aircraft/missile or tank factory for example.
While I doubt Ukraine can do anything similar in terms of scale, it does have the potential to put a lot of pressure on Russia. Seems to me that as dual use infrastructure goes, refineries lean more into the military infrastructure than general electricity infrastructure does, so IMO Ukraine is on much safer ground doing these attacks than Russia is in their own campaign against Ukraine's electricity system as far as rules of war goes.
Lloyd Austin saying he wants total victory but don’t blow up oil refineries is like ordering a cheeseburger without cheese.
Oh, what happend? Are some facilities or factories on the territory of countries that supply weapons to Ukraine also a target for sabotage by pro-Russian saboteurs? Borders are open)) Ready? )) 'As a result of an explosion at the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company's substructure plant under construction in Phoenix, Arizona, one person was seriously injured', or 'A large fire occurred at an ammunition manufacturing plant in the U.S. state of Pennsylvania.'
Great video but I think you underestimate the military importance of hitting the refineries at this particular moment. If russia is preparing for a new offensive in the coming months, then they will need to store a lot of fuel close to the front because trucks, tanks and planes all run on refined oil products. You don't want to start a new offensive if there is a risk of running out of fuel, like they did in the start of the war. 12% of the total production capacity may not sound so much, but the refineries that got hit were all close to the front line. Now it will take time for the russians to set up new supply lines and plan for the new situation, causing a delay that will give the ukranians more time to prepare and force the russians to attack under less favourable conditions.
Lets not forget that oil storage is limited in Russia. If cude is not processed, the oil stops moving and could freeze in the pipes. This could cause massive damage to wells in the arctic north.
While I am not expert on the oil industry, I suspect the added benefit to hitting refineries is that Russian will force to pay higher prices for gasoline and other refined petroleum products from outside Russia. So, even if Russia sells more oil, it will need to pay a higher price for refine products. Suppose Russia sells oil to PRC at $60 per barrel, but buys gasoline at $100 per barrel implies that they are losing $40 per transaction. Of course, my argument is purely hypothetical, and without a deep understanding of fossil fuel industry.
Anyone selling oil to Russia is an spineless bastard in my books.
You are right: you are not an expert.
Absolutely top quality presentation.
Thank you.
RS. Canada
There is a non-zero chance that, as far as Ukraine is concerned, ticking off the Americans with these drone strikes is a feature, not a bug. After all, if America now says "Please don't do that," Ukraine can say "Give use the weapons we need, and you can tell us how to fight this war. Until then, we're going to fight it in the only way we can." Yes, this is basically extortion, but like you say, American aid isn't coming through anyway, so Ukraine doesn't have much to lose.
Oil refineries produce not only petrol and diesel, but also kerosene for jet engines. The refining process produces 73 litres of petrol and 40 litres of diesel from every barrel (159 litres) of crude oil. However, only 15.5 litres of kerosene, which is used in fighter and bomber aircraft, are produced. The amount of kerosene consumed by a fighter aircraft is enormous. For example, the F-15 needs 385 gallons of kerosene per minute, or 88,000 litres per hour. It takes 5.7 thousand barrels of crude oil to process that amount. Oil refineries are definitely an integral part of the military complex. - See Energy Education, "In a barrel of oil"; aerocorner, "How Much Fuel Each Type of Aircraft Uses".
Also lubricants. Without base mineral oils, nothing turns, nothing moves, nothing flies. The effect of shortage will be felt in a year, when it's time to change oil. Faster than that for turbine oil.
Very interesting points. What’s the situation with rocket fuel and drone fuel ?
Your numbers as off. An F-15 consumes about 1800 gallons an hour or about 6800 litres.
But they are still thirsty machines.
88,000 litres would weight about twice as much as a fully loaded F-15.
lol at your 150 ton f-15 flying for one hour at your calculations :D :D :D
@@rogerwilco2 Thanks for correcting. My mistake.
If Putin has to mention the subject, talking to Lukanhesko on TV. then its hurting Russia. I don’t recall Putin ever talking publicly about his bomber aircraft being destroyed at Russian airfields.
Tak Anders.🇩🇰🍀🇺🇦👍💯
Ja vi er så bekymret for Ukriane. Når vi sender 24 F16 kampfly til Argentina 🙄 som vi lovet ukrainerne 👏🤡
Excellent analysis, as always Mr. Neilsen. And I am American, and I feel the same way as you - if the US is not supplying aid to Ukraine, then they have no say in how Ukraine chooses to fight its war.
Your videos are really great. We need more adults in the room, like you, Anders! Much appreciated
I find all your videos helpful and informative. I appreciate your content very much 👏🏻
Thanks!
All is correct, but the question about legality is ludicrous. Russia has ruined all the Ukrainian refineries and a lot of oil stocks in the first weeks of war and nobody asked Russia if it was legal. Russia destroys such civilian objects as schools, kindergartens, universities, electricity lines, river dams and civilian buildings every single day, and the Ukrainians should worry whether it is legal to hit the Russian refineries and take into account how it will influence the world oil prices? Although these are my emotions as a Ukrainian who witnesses all this every day. Generally, this channel provides quite a quality analytics.
It can be a really big problem with food prices. Because agriculture use vast amounts of oil (mostly diesel). At least here in Sweden, quite a large portion of the costs a farmer that have grain or other crops is the price of fuel.
ruSSian agriculture needs little fuel, as implements are traditionally drawn by barbooshkas.
Maybe Sweden should re-consider.
Keep up your good work - American hypocrisy - don’t defend yourself against Russia - REALLY - JAW DROPPING😢
USA wanting Ukraine to stop taking off the refineries is absolutely nuts. Now that they stopped supplying ammo, they're doing more harm than help.
Always insightful, thank youu
Another factor can be considering what happened with the Afghanistan War and the collapse of the Soviet Union: Soviet people endured for many years a bloody war but it did not had a direct effect until the economic crisis derived from the military expenditure was evident to Soviet citizens.
If the war continues as it is now, Putin could persist for years, but if the Russians start to feel the effect of a long-term inflation, then anger and contest will replace the current support or at best indifference to the war.
Where do you buy your cartoons, smart guy?
Amazing video, short, very good explanations, very interesting. I try don't miss any video from you.Thank you Mr Anders.
Great update thanks
Ukraine has only just begun making this war costly for Putin.. Make every step cost a million rubels.
Zelenski is a comedian, and he certainly turned russia into a joke😂
@@dpelpal He's just destroyed his own country. Killer Clown 🤡
….a million rubles? A BILLION you mean
Any war are costly, even for the rich West. There are many military analyst om YT supporting both side.
@@well9179a typical idiotic krembot comment.
Slava Ukraini!
I like that you put videos out when you have something interesting to say. Unlike many commentators who live off their youtube channel and post videos regularly searching for content to fill the time.
My dad was in Germany at the end of WW2 . The Germans were out of fuel & were running trucks on charcoal fumes . They could only go anout 10 mph .
And....?
Reducing Russian refinery capacity also puts pressure on their crude oil extraction system too. Russia cannot store huge oversupply of crude. If they refine less eventually they have to extract less. Once shut down restarting wells might be hard without Western tech.
'might be hard without Western tech' is an understatement a bit 😄
Shortly - impossible.
Edit - impossible now and in foreseeable future,
until other country like China gets to this tech level (and will be willing to use it within Russia). I think may be decade , may be more, a generation ...
Keep dreaming, wise guy.
One aspect that wasn’t mentioned that occurred to me is that refineries are full of flammable and explosive materials, so the effects of an initial explosion can easily be multiplied, and much more damage can be done.
It was recently reported by reuters that those refineries are being repaired and brought back online much faster than expected and apparently Russia learned how to rebuild and repair them without Western parts
Basically, the main thing Ukraine achieved is destruction of its own energy infrastructure in retaliatory strikes
@NJ-wb1cz lol yeah right
@@stonem0013 Look it up - Reuters, April 15, 2024, "Exclusive: Russia restoring oil refining capacity knocked out by drones"
"Russia has been able to swiftly repair some of key oil refineries hit by Ukrainian drones, reducing capacity idled by the attacks to about 10% from almost 14% at the end of March, Reuters calculations showed."
@@NJ-wb1cz From Russia, there is no such thing as "retaliatory". They just attack infrastructure anyway.
However, refineries, due to their nature are usually built in such a way that if an explosion were to happen or a fire start that it can easily be put out. You don't make a propane tank out of cardboard. And if something is essential to your economy and your ability to provide energy to your residents and exports you are going to make sure you can contain any damage that can be inflicted. It goes both ways.
I think taking out the oil refineries has been a central part of USA military doctrine since WW2.
It would be very interesting to know how much fuel is consumed by the Russian military at the moment and how much is consumed by the civilian sector. Thus you could roughly estimate the impact the strikes are making.
Not really. The military will get what it needs, followed by the agriculture sector for spring planting. Currently, the oil companies are losing money in order to protect consumers from rising prices, but that will end up leading to gas lines or rationing if this keeps up. And even if the military consumption was small, making an impact on Russian consumers in St Petersburg and Moscow has an impact.
Yes very interesting...
I seen a graph on this. The civilian and commercial population uses overwhelmingly much more oil than the military believe it or not. It only jumps by a few percentage points. There is a big jump in steel and aluminum production tho.
Also, the vast majority of pumped oil in Russia is east of Moscow and way out of range of Ukraine.
Well a tank does about 3 gallons of diesel per mile for Russia tank with 150 gallons onboard that's a range of 60 miles but most get destroyed before they use up the fuel
@@Fierysaint1 Ukrainian drones have reached around 1,000km recently. That puts a significant amount of oil infrastructure within range
Tack Anders för dina uppdateringar 🙂
It would be interesting to watch if russia raises again the interest rate.. this would be a sure sign that significant damage is being done.
it would if the Russian system was working properly, but Putin controls the interest and other indicators at least in part for propaganda purposes. he wants to show the west the sanctions are futile. so the interest rate is kept lower than it should. the currency and reported inflation numbers are also falsely reported. Your making the mistake of assuming that the kreml will make sound decisions in the interest of the people. they dont.
Yeah that will still mean the Ruble will be worthless even China and India don't want Rubles
A general price rise caused by fuel shortages is not inflation; which is defined as a monetary phenomenon (e.g. cheap credit, or the state starts printing money.) Increasing interest-rates will tackle inflation proper (by reducing credit and therefore the money supply) but has no effect against non-monetary causes of price increases. Only reduced demand or increased supply can do that. No interest-rate response is expected here.
@@billyruffian1426 interest rate hikes will reduce demand.
@@josephchong1683 Well, yes. But higher prices themselves will reduce demand. It's not a case of the value of money being inflated away, it's just a case of higher prices simply being higher prices. No need to compound everyone's misery by raising interest rates in response to a non-monetary shock.
First time on your channel. So glad I found it. Liked and subscribed. ❤
Thank you for explaining in easy to understand terms
more I learn about Jake Sullivan the more and more disgust I feel for my home country
The only principle guiding the Biden administration is the election. They will sell their mothers if they thought it would seal the election. Everyone should view US actions based on that reality
Gotta say this comment feels like the work of a Russian shill. One official is to your disliking and that's enough to make you feel "disgust" for your country? Write letters and make calls to your local congressperson, advocate for his removal from the position of Nat. Sec. Advisor. Saying you feel disgusted by your country, especially by something like this, is just fuel on a fire that helps the enemies of the US more than it heals anything internally.
You should be more disgusted by Speaker Johnson and his MAGA cult in Congress. What did you learn about Sullivan?
The most charitable thing I can say about Jake Sullivan is that I believe he must be misinformed. His statements make no sense to me.
@@NotOfWomanBorn - I dunno, Garry Kasparov was warning us about Jake Sullivan and Bob Burns getting all pally-wally with putin TWO YEARS AGO. He said those three were having closed door meetings that raised his suspicions just after Ukraine was invaded and Jake was blabbing on about peace negotiations with russia which really means rewarding horrendous bloodthirsty aggression. I have NOT trusted ol Jake since. As far as Bob Burns is concerned……the CIA? Really? 🇺🇦🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇦
Appreciate your insightful videos🎉
Another great video. Great that you mention rules of engagement, most experts fail to cover this area. Keep up the good work!
Giving an excellent perspective on what most of us do not really think about when it come to this conflict.
Thank you for your clear explanation. Bless Ukraine!
Tak!
Slava Ukraine 🇬🇧❤️🇺🇦
Thank you for another excellent analysis.
Thank you
Also of note, pointed out by another UA-cam analyst. Russia can still sneak crude oil out of the country. Which can then be refined elsewhere into bunker oil, diesel, kerosene, gasoline etc. Hitting the refineries interrupts Russia's ability to process fuel in country, close to Ukraine, costing them time and money having to transport crude outbound, refined products inbound contributing to said inflation, delaying supplies. In other words, if Russia can still 'black market supply' the world with oil, the price of gas that has been refined from Russian oil outside of Russia doesn't have to go up that much.
That's not that easy. We're not talking about a truck or two which have to drive a couple of extra kilometers. We talk about hundreds of trucks or tens of cargo trains every single day. Quite some logistics effort has to be built to compensate for these broken refineries. Free slots on railway tracks, hundreds of tank wagons, all that stuff.
@@traumflug Most definitely. Which is part of the point I made in the post. The delays will cost Russia.
Russia doesn't own those refineries outside of their country. What will happen is they will export more crude they can process cheap, and buy back expensive refined products.
@@lindsaycole8409 Understood, which is good for Ukraine as it will cause logistical delays and help aggravate inflation in the Russian Civilian economy.
As always - a perfect video as for content and structure ❤️ Just perfect! 👍🏼
Very good content. Thank you very much for your videos!
I don't think anyone told Ukraine not to do the most useful things they can do to protect themselves because their activity was going to hurt Biden's reelection chances. If gas prices going to $5 means everybody would rather have a authoritarian dictator than a democratic republic then we deserve what we get. If the US was providing better weapons and missile defense we might have something to day, otherwise it is stupid to bring it up. Affects Biden's chances... hardly.
You might think so, but Biden's team has not denied it, nor encouraged the Ukrainian's to do more of this successful tactic. It doesn't matter what you think about its effect on Biden. It is what his administration thinks.
Anything the US does is through the prism of the election.Either way, the perception that these overseas issues are affecting gas prices is another strike against the criminal Biden regime.
If the price of gasoline is more important to Americans than defending the freedom on which our entire prosperity in the West is based - well, then a stupid dictator like tRump is unlikely to change the price of gasoline, which is not something tRump can dictate - that is, of course he can , but his biggest goal is an alliance with pUtin and his allies, in addition to tax cuts for the wealthiest Americans. If the Americans prefer tRump, then it is their own ignorance and lack of basic education that is the problem!
Sooooo...
Without getting too in to the weeds what the administration says it thinks publicly, and what it actually wants Ukraine to do can be totally different things.
Especially in an election year.
Just sayin.
My personal view is these statements are a damage mitigation effort by the Biden Whitehouse so as to appease a certain voting demographic, but that behind closed doors they do not reflect the overarching policy of the administration which is to support Ukraine.
You're completely wrong, unless you're trying to claim that Secretary of Defense Austin is in charge rather than Ped oh file Joey (which could certainly be argued).
Austin himself admitted it, on camera. Look it up.
Carefully and neutrally explained.I see no reason at all why petrol prices will rise. Russia can still export crude oil but will have to export it to a country which has refinery capacity....which means that the same amount of petrol is actually produced. It does mean that the cost of petrol, diesel and jet fuel in Russia will increasewhich will have an effect upon the economy. Russia has already chosen to maintain its buoyancy at the cost of its civilian population but that's entirely Russia's choice as you pointed out. I hear the Americans complaining ever louder and suspect that these ever louder complaints will convince Ukraine that they are doing the right thing. Maybe the Americans would like to mend the Russian oil refinery columns for them? ERM no! thought not!
India should be watched in that regard. They already refine Russian crude and they're probably only going to increase their production capacity.
@@worldeconomicfella3228 "India should be watched"
Lol. India is a sovereing country (unlike Ukraine) that can do whatever they want...
Prices WILL go up. Common sense.
@sixmillionaccountssilenced6721 SMS Ukraine is a sovereign country Only Russia or Russian supporters say otherwise
basic economics would say petrol prices would increase
As always, great content. Thank you for your clear analysis and delivery.
Just found this channel a few days and and really enjoy it. Keep up the good work!
Americans, call your local congressman office and make them sign the discharge petition for Ukraine aid, we only need a few dozen more signatures to collect, there are lists with numbers and those who haven't signed yet (mostly "progressives" and Republicans) online.
No
Can all your paycheck be taxed to pay it?
Yes@@mitchyoung93
@@waywardgeologist2520 Not a Christian, I guess?
@@waywardgeologist2520 what?
9:00 The cheek that you would need to have to ask Selenzky to prioritize US internal politics when it's internal US politics that is currently keeping US aid out of Ukraine.
Sec of Defense Lloyd Austin testified to Congress that he wanted Ukraine to stop this. Not due to oil refineries being legitimate targets or the effect on the price of oil (which increases Russian revenues to increase defense spending), but simply because he thinks there are better "military targets."
It sounds to me as if he is hinting that the military industrial complex is a more important target than refineries. If so, what military targets do you think would be the best ones to hit first?
Thank you for your well thought out explanation.
Slava Ukraini 🙌🇺🇦❤️🔥❤️🔥❤️🔥
Sometimes, I think the best way to understand this war is to simply read Tom Clancy's Red Storm Rising.... Another great video, thanks, Anders!
Ukraine is targeting oil refineries, not oil production. The availability of refined products in Rashka will affect prices within the Tsardom, not the global market. Crude prices unaffected.
Man, Ukrainian got some big brains on them! 👍
🇺🇸💙🇺🇦
rashka*
tsardom*
I don't know much about the war, but I know Ukraine made russia into one big joke😂
what are you talking about? Crude oil prices keep going up, soon they will reach 100 per barrel, when that happen an average american will be upset that he can't drive around one of his oil guzzling car, they will blame Biden and vote for Donny and once the orange clown get behind the steering wheel the whole Ukraine will go tits up along with NATO
Ttcc. You're looking at the way things are going and you think the Ukrainians are smart?
How would the war be going if they were idiots to provoke their neighbour and trust the West then?
But US is buying refined fuel through india to keep prices down, as are EU.
I think that we should look at the Russian economy as a "wartime" economy -- and view these bombings in that context. Many "non-military" uses of energy propel the war. Manufacturing of weapons, transportation of weapons, transporting workers and soldiers within Russia (not just the front lines). Manufacturing munitions and defense products (with a *lot* of steel) is highly consumptive of energy.
I don't think the pain point is causing Russian to forgo a visit to Aunt Nadia -- it is to undermine the heartbeat of the Russian war machine.
Very informative, thank you Anders!
Good explanation and description Anders. Thank you.
oil refineries to my knowledge also make explosive and drug precosors ,i am not absolutely sure . But as as a chemical transporter for more than 30 years i have been told so. If that is the case oil refineries is a very significant target.
Oil and gas infrastructure is 100% a military target. One could probably argue for it being dual-use; but dual-use are treated as military.
It's different from say electrical or water infrastructure, which are vital for civilians' immediate well-being.
The US has bombed Serbian and Iraqi electrical infrastructure, which are gross violations of the laws of war and actually constitute genocide, so they can't really point their finger at Russia for doing the same.
To be fair on the US, they did it largely with graphite bombs, which has less of a long-term damage.
And the answer is yes. Oil is as vital to war as steel.
Is that so, wise guy?
@@valeriesolanas4077 Try fighting one without it.
Oil refining is a complex process that is simple in the end. What I mean by that is there is a very centralized process that does all of it with most of the rest just being supply and support to that process. So if you can disrupt that very specialized equipment relying on large physical structures that is creating all of these things at any of its single points of failure, you can break the whole chain. And this is not just a valve or a line it is a structure optimized to have the most thruput it can. That means there is no spare capacity or even planning for this type of failure mode.
Reuters is reporting that some key refineries are already repaired and the idling capacity has dropped from 14% to 10% in month
Another terrific video! I always appreciate your insightful analysis!! Many thanks!!
Thank you always the smartest answers and thoughtful responses
Very interesting. Thanks!
Thank you for your excellent analysis. Since Russia is so aggressive - it is fair and proportionate that Ukraine be aggressive as well. The US right now is being hypocritical to Ukraine. We are judging Ukraine as its people struggle for survival and we ( the US) are not putting our money there so until we step up we should shut up. ( politely of course) ... J
Unfortunately there's no ethics in politics. The American voter is much more interested in the abortion debate rather than the fate of Ukraine.
@@traumvonhaiti In fairness, abortion directly affects our civil liberties, while Ukraine is a more indirect problem for us.
@@E3ECO luckily, the majority is both pro choice and pro ukraine, so its not an either or. it just takes some time for sleezy politicians to be voted out after they have showed what they are reaally all about
The majority of US residents do not realize that Ukrainians are not only fighting for their own survival, but also for our Western way of life and US leadership in the world.
@@traumvonhaitithere’s no problem with the fact that the USA don’t help Ukraine, but in this case, I totally agree with the OP, they also lose their right to tell them how they should fight. I think you can’t (gov) just sit there watching and yelling do that don’t do that, it is wrong. But yeah, if they assist Ukraine of course they can give them other efficient strategies, that’s fine and that’s all they’re asking in Ukraine.
Very interesting, as usual. Thank you.
Thank you Anders for your informative report
Thank you for this analysis. The nonsense being said by Biden's government has been disheartening but could at least be understood as nothing but 'politics'. Not welcome 'politics' however.
It's arguably worse. We've been hobbling ourselves and Ukraine because some in Biden's administration fear "escalation." The name I see most often when it comes to these self defeating positions is none other than Jake Sullivan, the same guy named in this video.
The Biden administratrion is ready to help and the senate has approved a huge aid package, which is held up by Donald Trump & Mike Johnson. It is absolutely essential for the survival of Ukraine that the Democrats win in November.
@@BjorckBengt There might be no Ukraine by November, so having the audacity to tell them not to attack ruzzian oil refineries is quite someting.
@@BjorckBengt I agree it is! And yes trump and johnson are the ones blocking the aid. My comments were critising the Biden administrations criticism of Ukraine for attacking oil refineries. The politics of saying 'we do not support these actions' could well be one of appearance as opposed to anything substantive but I still do not welcome their language. I do think Biden's government has been weak and mistaken in it's 'escalation avoidance' strategy but of course that is better than a pro russian Republican party. If I was murican I would vote Biden.
Strange that the West is squeamish about Ukraine attacking the civilian infrastructure of a country that blew up a dam and has been laying waste to Ukraine's electric grid. I'm pretty sure that Ukraine's equipment runs on gas and diesel, not electricity. Yes, I can see that we'd all love to see our side to be the "good guy" and play by the rules even if the other side does not, but the question is ridiculously out of balance in my opinion.
Not to mention all the civilian residences, hospitals and school Russia has been targeting since the beginning. While Ukraine has been fighting with one arm tied behind its back because the US has denied them any useful offensive weapons all along.
While fuel such as gas, diesel, jet fuel are the majority of distilled petroleum let's not forget that every vehicle cars, trucks, trains, and all mobile military equipment requires lubricants....as does factory machinery. And then there are the feed sticks for every form of plastics. As the production capacity is diminished, conversely government control of resource allocation becomes greater.....one of the weakest points in Russian adminstration coupled with corruption on a massive scale....oligarchs might be having the night sweats as the situation becomes clearer.
I'm horrified by the violence of this gray background
Last part is pretty ridiculous. You might as well ask “well the Ukrainians need to choose who they use their energy grid to support, either military or civilian use”, or any other resource.
I am not sure how that will increase the price of fuel globally as the price of crude oil would not be affected (I guess) and most countries have their own refineries which would not sell to Russia.
Only found your channel recently, excellent analysis and break downs.
Thanks
Right on spot as always.
I'd like add, as long as the market functions, the reduced production will have a global effect. As soon as the market is local, the world does not need to care. All we have to do is isolate Russia from the market ...
The US response to this is bizarre. First they stop helping Ukraine, only to then tell the Ukrainians they're not allowed to defend themselves. It's pure insanity!
That said it's about time Europe stepped up its support for Ukraine big time. Russia will not stop in Ukraine, that one's for certain.
Unfortunately, Western European countries have relied on promises of help from the USA and have put themselves in a straitjacket with their bureaucracy, fear and complacency.
@@ettoreatalan8303
Well, Germany may be the best example. That, and they really don't seem to want to piss off Putin.
it's not bizarre, as in, unexpected. A bunch of republicans are being paid off as Russian shills, and this is the unfortunate outcome of that.
It is bizarre in that this situation sucks.
@unduloid The USA has finally shown its real face: Ukraine was meant to be a discardable praxis from the very beginning. God have mercy of those not-so-bright Ukrainians that believed in that democracy and freedom BS.
It all makes perfect sense if you are a Republican without any conscience and purely focused on taking down Biden in this election year. If withholding other weapons makes Ukraine focus on drone attacks on oil refineries, and that results in higher gas prices in the USA, and that results in Trump beating Biden, then weapons shipments to Ukraine WILL be withheld.
Thanks for the great analysis ❤
This, sir, was very informative.
Thx allot
Turkey, China, Saudi Arabia and India account for over 50% of refined oil imports from Russia. Importers are also Belgium, the Netherlands, Italy and Spain.
So why does an oil producer like Saudi Arabia have to import oil products,are they not capable of refining oil themselves?
Saudis buy it for their consumption and sell theirs to other countries that don't buy from ruzzia. Or in other words making more petrodollars @@ninazacharia3003
The majority of the US population is frustrated by the lack of Ukranian support. Our leadership is out of line. Our leadership suffers from misguided Trump devotion. Our political power MUST change come November 5, 2024. I just wish the vote and the END of the Trump era would come sooner.
The majority of the US population couldn't find Ukraine on the map but they do know their border is wide open and it's causing problems in their community.
@@colonelangus8247if only maga had put the bipartisan bill to the vote! 🤔
Maga Americans claim to worry about open borders yet the US economy particularly agriculture relies on migrant labour to function ... they don't care about this because its about simple 5IQ racism rather than actual concern about borders..
The elites support the war, not the people. Nobody wants WW3 over territory in Ukraine. Wake up
Sorry, but that's just not true. I have yet to personally meet anyone who wants to give billions of dollars of our tax money to another country to fight a war in a place that is of no vital interest to us. According to all of the polls I've seen, that's also the opinion of a majority of Americans. The only place I have ever come across people who support it are online. Of course you're entitled to your opinion, but don't presume to speak for the rest of us b/c a majority of us disagree.
Thanks. Love the analysis