Anthony Hopkins deserves to win one more Oscar trophy as much as Boseman deserves his first Oscar trophy. Hopkins' performance is slightly better than Boseman so I think he is going to win. if Boseman still alive, there's no doubt Hopkins is going to win the whole thing
Glenn Close is overdue and her losing for the wife was a shock, I do want her to win but Youn Yuh-jung deserves it, but I wouldn't say Close is out cause you never know what the Academy are thinking about.
Agreed, while Hopkins is still probably my favorite performance of the category, holy cow was Riz Ahmed PHENOMENAL in Sound of Metal, and for a while it was my favorite performance of 2020. I honestly would put Riz Ahmed over Chadwick Boseman (he gives a really strong performance too though)
@Montravius Daniel Oh for sure! When Chadwick Boseman wins I'll be happy, and even if he hadn't sadly passed away I would've been happy for him since he does deliver a great performance as well!
@Montravius Daniel watch more movies. He had potentially to be one of the greats and it is very sad he died in his prime. But Heath Ledger he ain't. Watch The Father and tell me Chadwick is better than Anthony. and if you do you sir will be liar.
To be honest, a couple of weeks ago after watching Boseman's performance I wanted him to win. But, I didn't love the movie. I wanted it to happen just to honor him... but then I saw The Father and as much as I'd like to honor Boseman, Hopkins delivers one of the greatest performances I've ever seen in my life. It's a masterpiece. In truth? How many of those performances haven't won Oscars... a lot. So, I'm not too confident in Hopkins because the narrative behind Boseman is strong and Hopkins isn't even going to attend the award. But if he wins, I'll be so happy. In other news... preferential ballots might award a random movie the award. It's not impossible, so I wouldn't be surprised something that isn't Nomadland randomly winning.
I am a huge Chadwick fan and am rooting for him at the Oscars but once I saw The Father I said ummmmm whew, Anthony performance blew me away! So I would not be upset if Anthony Hopkins wins the Oscar for Best Actor.
Ledger should have won his oscar dead or alive, no question. But, as good as boseman's performance is, hopkins was perfection imo. Im hoping he wins it
That's what I was thinking. Ledger was winning that award, dead or alive. But Chadwick? I don't know. Not to be rude, but if he was still alive, Hopkins would take that Oscar without a doubt.
@Montravius Daniel Dude, calm down. You do know that it's okay for someone to prefer a performance that isn't Chadwick Boseman, right? Personally, while Chadwick Boseman was great in the movie, I'd put both Anthony Hopkins (who I think gives the best performance I've seen in years) and Riz Ahmed (who is absolutely phenomenal in Sound of Metal) above him. It's OKAY to disagree on what the best performance is. But don't attack people for not liking Chadwick Boseman's performance as much as you.
@Montravius Daniel shut up, I don't think you've seen The Father yet, Hopkins' performance was way superior than Chadwick. If Chadwick was alive there's no chance for him to win almost every Best Actor award
@Last Cosmonaut By miles is a very very huge exaggeration. Riz was way better than Hopkins. Just like people are overrating Chadwick because he died, you are overrating Hopkins cause he's old and he will die soon as well. If anything Riz Ahmed should win.
Honestly could happen because at the moment I have no clue who will win actress but I assume screenplay will go to Chicago 7 even though Fennel has a chance
Don't sleep on Minari.....idk too many who would rank that low on a pref. ballot where as I can see people ranking Nomadland, Trial, and Promising Young Woman low ALso Hopkins is the right winner.....
Maybe I’m just stubborn, but I’m sticking with Boseman for Best Actor. I feel the the Actor’s branch will look at Hopkins and say “you were great, but you already have one.” Besides, Hopkins may very well be nominated again in the near future. Boseman won’t be. I’m no psychic, so I won’t pretend to know for sure, it’s just my gut feeling.
He will win it because of the nomination, I wonder if he'd still be alive he would even get nominated. He's gone too soon, what a pity. My faves are Riz Ahmed and Hopkins, they were brilliant.
I'm surprised you're not going with The Father in Screenplay. I think that's the easier place to reward it than over Boseman (and let's be real, BAFTA's always had problems rewarding African-American actors alive or dead)
like, when was the last time the BAFTA surprise winner won the Oscar over an African-American frontrunner? Alan Arkin over Eddie Murphy? And we know he had issues with the industry.
I'm really pushing for Carey Mulligan and Youn Yuh-Jung to win for Best Actress and Best Supporting Actress. I would also not be surprised if Anthony Hopkins upsets Chadwick Boseman for Best Actor. Finally, Daniel Kaluuya has no competition whatsoever.
Remember in 2019 when Glenn Close won the Golden Globe, SAG, Critics Choice and lost to Olivia Colman at the Oscars and at the BAFTAs? Remember in 1997 when Lauren Bacall won SAG and Golden Globe and lost to Juliette Binoche at both BAFTAS and Oscars? I have this feeling about Chadwick Boseman vs. Anthony Hopkins this year. The Academy loves to surprise with the results. The entire world is thinking Chadwick will win, but Anthony will get the award for The Father
i don't necessarily think the british actors winning at bafta is always the 'home advantage' but more that the baftas are more removed from the narrative around who should win and vote based on who was actually better. at least i think that's the case with the hopkins win last week
When you mentioned the Mark Rylance win.. it reminded me of the Alan Arkin win: Eddie Murphy won Globe, Critics choice and sag, and then out of nowhere Alan wins Bafta, and bam: Wins Oscar
And? He just made one of the greatest performances ever as he did in Silence of the Lambs. He must win his second. And although Boseman performance is very good, it isn't in the same category of Hopkin's performance. Hopkins had already won a Oscar and Boseman death have nothing to do with it.
Also, remember that “The Father” was having screener issues even when it pulled off a Best Picture nomination. For these reasons, I am betting Hopkins for Lead Actor. “The Father” being present in the Best Picture lineup and “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom” being omitted in both Best Picture and Adapted Screenplay helps me warrant this prediction as well.
Actually, a voter said that it had sent screener earlier, so that issue was proven untrue. The screener problem only happened for critics which explained how Hopkins' performance wasn't awarded at many critics.
@@melvinezekiel6304 true, even tho he showed up as nominee in critics group, I heard that many of them couldn't get the screener until it's finally released on demand last month so it's reasonable that hopkins losing. 1 anonymous voter also said that they got the screener of the father quickly from SPC so I think SPC did the campaign well at the very last second, might be a big advantage for hopkins.
Y’all still predicting a win for Carey and coming up with hypothetical scenarios as to why this is with only a critics choice award over people with actual wins that mean something lol Hopkins is now in play for best actor after a bafta win? When Chadwick has swept everywhere else. Hmm I want you guys to take a long hard look in the mirror ask yourselves why is that.
It should be because Hopkins, in a clear-cut manner, put in the best performance of 2020. It's nice to see Boseman be honored, but his wins so far over Hopkins and Ahmed, who also put in a clearly superior performance, were not justified based solely on Boseman's performance. I think lots of people could look in the mirror if you want to go there (I'm not white nor black myself however). Boseman should be given an honorary Oscar, while Hopkins should be given the Best Actor Oscar for putting in the best performance onscreen in several years, which should be the only criterion for the award.
People are sleeping on 'Quo Vadis, Aida? It is one of the best films of the year and in my opinion superior to 'Another Round'. You never know, 'Amelie' and 'Pan's Labyrinth' didn't win Best Foreign Film back in their days despite having multiple nominations and being the frontrunners. I am rooting for 'The Father' in Best Adapted Screenplay. It's a better film than 'Nomadland' and a better script at the same time. Fingers crossed on these two categories for a possible upset. 🤞
@Montravius Daniel The movie should have been more about her, but dramatically, the plot centered around Chadwick Boseman's character, which is why he has double her screen time in it. I would argue that Davis' character acts more of a foil or antagonist to Boseman's character, which would make her role that of supporting.
@@hardsam68 The difference here is that The Favourite did not have a clear protagonist. All three main characters were their own protagonists, which means that an argument could have been made for all three of them being nominated in supporting or lead. In Ma Rainey, Boseman's character is the clear lead protagonist
This year is weird. I haven't watched most of the nominees (because lack of time) and I don't have personal locks for most of the nominees (although I am rooting for anything Nomadland and Minari). This is the least excited I've been for the Oscars since I first watched it in 2007 and this feeling isn't even my choice. 🙁
Best Picture: Nomadland Best Director: Chloe Zhao Best Actress: Carey Mulligan Best Actor: Chadwick Boseman Best Supporting Actress: Yuh-Jung Youn Best Supporting Actor: Daniel Kaluuya Best Adapted Screenplay: Nomadland Best Original Screenplay: Promising Young Woman Best Cinematography: Nomadland Best Costume Design: Ma Rainey's Black Bottom Best Film Editing: The Trial of the Chicago 7 Best Makeup and Hairstyling: Ma Rainey's Black Bottom Best Production Design: Mank Best Original Score: Soul Best Original Song: Speak Now Best Sound: Sound of Metal Best Visual Effects: Tenet Best Animated Feature: Soul Best Documentary Feature: My Octopus Teacher Best International Feature: Another Round Best Animated Short: If Anything Happens I Love You Best Documentary Short Subject: A Love Song For Latasha Best Live Action Short: Two Distant Strangers
You kinda lost me 10 seconds in when you said “less important categories” 😪😪😪 that’s already bad enough (undermining the importance of the crafts/techs) but you then followed it with “Best International Feature” 🥴 (as if a non-US film was “less” than a US one) no, man... just... no
I don’t think they meant to undermine it, just that people in general tend to watch these videos and the awards shows as a whole to see people win these awards.
@@monkeyangelo717 Quo Vadis Aida was BREATHTAKING from start to finish and Jasna Duricic gives probably the fiercest performance I’ve ever seen (no joke) So yeah, long story short, that was a weird way to phrase it from them 🤷🏻♂️
There are so many locks I just can't wait to see the upsets :D I also think Anthony Hopkins is going to win, and it's not reasonable but I feel Riz Ahmed still has a chance. Very exciting acting race!
@@ChrolliForever I won't judge Hopkins because I haven't seen his performance. However, I wouldn't necessarily say that Ahmed was better Boseman. He was very good, but Chadwick stood out to me and there was a big range of emotions that he had and could express. Anyways, it's the point of voting for performances: everyone will use their own subjectivity since actors aren't theoretically there to compete against each other. But I can't believe people saying Boseman's performance wasn't that good.
I have a feeling the Academy don't appreciate the kind of roles Cray Mulligan played, like when Glenn Close lost for Fatal Attraction and Rosamand Pike lost for Gone Girl. I think she won't win just because of that.
It's not quiet the same, I'm talking about smart and strong female characters who want revenge from a man (men), to a point they might be considered psychos. Frances's character was completely different, it's not evil and it's not revenge that she wants , Kathy Bates in Misery is more like Louise Fischer in One flew over the cuckoo's nest, but both are different from the kind of characters Mulligan plays in PYW
And personally, I don't think Mulligan's character is evil or sociopath enough to be compared to both Close in Fatal Attraction or Pike in Gone Girl. McDormand in Three Billboards is a more reasonable comparison for me as they are both seeking justice for their loved ones in extreme ways that they're almost maddeningly scary.
I really do think this is between Viola Davis and Andra Day. As much as I loved her performance and would love to see her win, I find it hard to believe Carey Mulligan has a lot of support given that she lost the SAG - an award that her peers all voted on. Plus, I do think that given the narrative of Davis and Day playing historical black women - that's very hard to shrug off in a time where the Oscars are finally being more inclusive and recognizing diverse actors. Overall, great set of nominees this year!
@@quindariousgooch4696 critics didn’t like Andra’s film, just like they didn’t like Meryl Streep’s 2011 film The Iron Lady. In both cases, the Golden Globe winner-to-Oscar winner streak was supposed to be broken. In both cases, people who watched the film were kinder than the critics, and loved the lead actress’ perform. In both films....
@@oskari7121 history never repeats itself in exactly the same way. For example, The Academy wasn’t tipping their hand to have a second black Best Actress that year like this year (Halle Berry is at the top of the featured attendees). The key here is to be open-minded to the possibility of an Andra Day win, as to part of the drama that we have almost come to expect from Oscar night.
McDormand will already win for Best Picture, but if she wins Best Actress as well, it’ll make me wish even more that Margot Robbie _(I, Tonya)_ had won three years ago instead.
2 previous Oscars be damned, Frances gave the best performance!! Everyone else was good, but I could tell they were acting. Frances was completely seamless!
Film editing: Sound of Metal Best actor: Boseman (Hopkins should win, performance wise) Best actress: NO CLUE Best director: Nomad Cinematography: Nomadland clearly Orig screenplay: Promising or Trail Adap screenplay: The Father or Nomad (The father had better screenplay play but people are liking Nomad more so it’ll probably win.) Sound: SOUND OF METAL clearly Best supporting actor: DK Best supporting actress: Seyfried or Coleman Product: Mank Costume: Emma - Ma Rainys Makeup: Ma rainys Picture: Nomadland (I honestly thought The Father was a stronger film) Visual: Tenet (I haven’t seen Tenet but people say it’ll win) I really loved Minari, I wouldn’t be surprised if the lady wins for supporting actress, cant remember her name
@@christianknight727 SAAME. I think that a lot of people don't like it much, but I thoroughly enjoyed it. If Nomadland doesn't win Picture, its a 3 horse race. Nomadland, Chicago 7, Promising Young Woman. I still think it could win Editing, OG Screenplay, or Picture.
For the editing, I would go for The Father for how its editing heavily impacted the story buildup. They may have one of the simplest editing techniques, but it brought a new layer of excitement to a story which is kinda predictable. Anyway, Hopkins is also my Best Actor pick for I, too, was surprisingly moved by his manipulative performance. 👏🏼 Great video guys! I enjoyed every part of it especially when you said that the Best Actress category should be in a separate discussion for the lineup this year is honestly unpredictable. 🤧❤️ I also have my own 2021 Oscars winners prediction video below: ua-cam.com/video/XRCTSJPY9mc/v-deo.html
My predictions: International Feature - Another Round Documentary Feature - My Octopus Teacher Animated Feature - Soul Visual Effects - Tenet Sound - Sound of Metal Song - Husavik Score - Soul Production Design - Mank Makeup and Hair - Ma Rainey Editing - Nomadland Costume Design - Ma Rainey Cinematography - Nomadland Original Screenplay - Promising Young Woman Adapted Screenplay - Nomadland Sup Actor - Daniel Kaluuya Sup Actress - Yuh-Jung Youn Actor - Anthony Hopkins Actress - Frances McDormand Director - Nomadland Picture - Minari Live Action Short - Feeling Through Documentary Short - Do Not Split Animated Short - Opera
woah you have minari winning best pic with its only other award being sup actress? No way. I think i agree with you on this completely except switch minari best pic to nomadland.
@@jamesp2424 yes but moonlight won screenplay and supporting, and had 8 oscar nominations. Minari is only winning supporting and has a total of only 6 nominations. Moonlight didnt seem obvious but it are least had a decent chance. Minari I view as less than 5% if that even
Best Picture: Minari( going of the anonymous ballots I feel there is a lot of support for this in the acdmey, and think it will win preferential ballot system as the 2nd place has always been winning though i wouldn't be shocked if nomadland won) Best Director: Chloe Zhao(though fennel MAY upset ) Actress: Andre Day ( Gold derby pointed out we don't know how she's doing, and that what we have heard, she is impressing the academy voters, PLUS announcing Haily Berry gives me the impression that it will either go to Viola or Andre, because she is the only black women in history to win best actress Best Actor: Anthony Hopkins( People are saying he was better than chadwick, and it is of note that The father wasn't accessible, before other award shows, not mention The oscars are about anonymous voter said, Chadwick prefomcne felt to the theater" Best Supporting Actress: Yuh-Jung Youn Best Supporting Actor: Daniel Kaluuya(HOWEVER 3 of 4 the anonymous ballots mentioned they preferred Sacha baron cohen over Kaluya ) Best Adapted Screenplay: The Father( Nomadland isn't really a screenplay movie, However it's possible that Borat may win this as well!) Best Costume Design: Ma Rainey's Black Bottom Best Film Editing: Sound of Metal Best Makeup and Hairstyling: Ma Rainey's Black Bottom Best Production Design: Mank Best Original Score: Soul Best song: Husavik(It's the only song that isn't played during the credits, it stands out among the nommiees being the only poppy song you would listen to on the radio, and isn't cliche oscar bait son) Best Visual Effects: The Midnight sky( Really i think Love and Monsters could actually upset as they have been going for more smaller practical effects movies lately But i think Midnight sky has it, and over tennet because they haven't gotten screeners and most voters going of the anonymous ballots don't like it) Best Animated Feature: Soul (FUCKING I HATE THAT ITS GOING TO DISNEY PIXAR FILM TO THE 13TH TIME AND PETE DOCTOR DOSN'T NEED A 3RD OSCAR WHEN THERE ARE DOZENS OF INDUSTRY LEGENDS WHO DONT EVEN GOTTEN ONE!) Best Animated Short: If Anything Happens I Love You Best Documentary Short Subject: A Love Song For Latasha Best Live Action Short: The letter room
@@joostkale5142 True, However, think of this way, A: the 2nd place always wins the best picture. B: Is this real a movie the acdmey will love? Remember their over 10k members in the academy, many of whom are traditionalist with not good taste. Who well will you think a slow boing movie about a bunch baby boomers from the midwest really do well on a preferential ballot system)
@@notchuckproductions5029 A Shape of Water, Spotlight, Argo and the kings speech (kinda). But the real thing about the other numbers 2s is, there actually was a clear number 2. Parasite, Moonlight and Green book where all clear number 2s because they won at least something. Minari, Trial and Promising Young Woman all have nothing. B: Well The BAFTA’s, Sags, Critics choice, Golden Globes, PGA and DGA all thought it was the best, so why would the oscars think: Nah its not the best?
Best Actress to Andra or Viola is kinda impossible because both won the GG wnd SAG... It is gonna be very tough for the academy to choose.. So tough that it may eventually cancel each other by awarding it to carey just for being the dark horse(and ofc with the critics choice win)... Maybe this could finally be the year where u dont need a GG and SAG to win best actress..
@@joostkale5142 Fair ponit, and yah it will probably win, that being said, we don't know if their is backlash, becuse it virtual, and it still perlexes me that in a year with were diversity is such a major issue, the movie Poor midwest baby boomers, wins.
I predicted Chicago 7 for editing, the father for screenplay, burrow for animated short, and viola Davis for best actress. I think that was the only differences. I realize most of my picks are risks but I believe if u get the best picture nom then u should win something
How would you rank the Best Picture Nominees? My ranking is a little controversial but here it is: 1. Minari (5/5) 2. The Father (5/5) 3. Sound of Metal (5/5) 4. Judas and the Black Messiah (5/5) 5. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (4.5/5) 6. Nomadland (4.5/5) 7. Promising Young Woman (4/5) 8. Mank (2.5/5)
1. Promising Young Woman 10/10 2. Minari 9/10 3. Sound of Metal 9/10 4. Judas and the Black Messiah 8/10 5. The Father 8/10 6. Mank 8/10 7. Nomadland 5/10 The Trial of the Chicago 7 3/10
1. Promising Young Woman (10/10) 2. The father (9.5/10) 3. Sound of metal (9/10) 4. Trial of Chicago 7 (9/10) 5. Judas and the Black Messiah (7.5/10) 6. Mank (6/10) I haven't see Nomadland and Minari
I am not sure if it’s possible but what if Sound of Metal and the Trial tie for editing? Zero Dark Thirty and Skyfall did tie back in 2013 so I am wondering if we can see that? I am not sure if the Academy would allow the Trial to walk away empty handed, particularly that Sorkin is so much involved
Indie Spirits will be telling for actress. They’ve never not awarded the Oscar winner if they were nominated their. Viola vs Carey vs Frances. If Viola wins then I’m gonna have to switch over to her from Carey
@@calvinlaw7790 The thing is that every time the Indie Spirits nominated the eventual Oscar Lead Actress winner, she wins every single time - so it’s based off of correlation
Best Picture: Nomadland Best Director: Nomadland Best Actor: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Boseman) Best Actress: Nomadland (Mcdormand) (FREAKING CALLED IT) Best Supporting Actor: Judas & The Black Messiah (Kaluuya) Best Supporting Actress: Minari (Youn) Best Original Screenplay: Promising Young Woman Best Adapted Screenplay: Nomadland Best Animated Feature: Soul Best Foreign Film: Another Round Best Documentary: My Octopus Teacher Best Original Score: Soul Best Original Song: One Night In Miami Best Sound: Sound Of Metal Best Production Design: Mank Best Cinematography: Nomadland Best Makeup & Hairstyling: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom Best Costume Design: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom Best Editing: Trial Of Chicago 7 Best Visual Effects: Tenet Best Animated Short: If Anything Happens I Love You Best Documentary Short: A Love Song For Latasha Best Live Action Short: The Letter Room
@@thearabicmusicland Don't just assume that Mulligan would have won. We assumed she would win the Sag guess what she didn't. Not saying she doesn't have a chance but a lot of this feels like going through the first stage of grief: denial. To be clear I think Carey Mulligan is the the second most likely.
While I readily admit that no one on this planet could have pulled off Frances McDormand’s creation and portrayal of Fern with the same grace and sensitivity, I have a feeling that Andra Day will actually end up being the surprise of the night. As for the others: GREAT performances, but it would be easy to insert alternative actresses and have films if similar quality.
@@oskari7121 strongly disagree. Scarjo, Emilia Clarke, Evan Rachel Wood, etc., etc. Carey’s got a great catalogue of films, and she’ll be in Maestro opposite Bradley Cooper. I’d love to see the same type of support for this and other future projects.
@@rhythmoriented You seriously believe Emilia Clarke could have pulled off that performance? She’s really not that great of an actress, especially compared to Mulligan. And even I can’t picture anyone else doing justice Mulligan’s role.
@@Reva-mz8yl just a short list of actresses who would have done just fine in role. As with any film, that would have changed characteristics, and who knows, a (for example) Scarjo casting would have elevated PYW and her chances of winning an Oscar. Now, let’s think of who could have pulled off the role of Fern better than Frances McDormand, and elevated Nomadland(?)......
@@rhythmorientedI never said someone could do a better job than McDormand, but the same applies to Mulligan too imo. Johansson is a good actor and maybe her interpretation would have been good,albeit different but Mulligan has dynamic screen presence in that movie and juggles both comedy and drama very well. Tbh, this is a strong best actress lineup, I don’t think any actress is replaceable.
Looking at the history of the Oscars, if The Father beats Nomadland for Adapted Screenplay, there seems to be a chance for that or Promising Young Woman/Trial of the Chicago to win best picture. Rarely has a best picture winner not won a screenplay award. Is this accurate or is Nomadland an exception because of a lack of a script?
The Shape of Water was considered one of the weaker screenplay nominees that year, but had strong odds to win in categories considered to be above-line (director) and below-line (production design and score). Nomadland has a similar scenario with director and cinematography, respectively.
Carey Mulligan is my favorite living actor but I just can't see her take the Oscar this time. She can not win after only winning Critics Choice imo. That is not a peer group.
Maybe Soggy Bottom? They really love Paul Thomas Anderson, it's Philip Seymour Hoffman's son's first movie (Cooper Hoffman), Bradley Cooper is in it who has been nominated a lot, it's a period movie set in the 70s, and the plot is about a young actor. Inherent Vice had more mediocre ratings and the Academy didn't like it as much but that was _still_ nominated for Best Adapted Screenplay and Best Costume Design. Soggy Bottom (if that's even the final name) sounds like it has a pretty good chance.
@@visualsforyou7120 ooh that’s a good one. Imagine if it becomes a two horse race between Wes and PTA both fighting for their first win. And dang that sucks about Babylon
@@makotocarolin Battle of the Andersons. Even though we're not close to accurately predicting the 2022 Oscars I feel like there's a good chance of that happening. Both are seasoned directors who've been nominated before and are regarded as some of the best directors in history. Some other thoughts: - If Dune is super good and Denis Villeneuve gets a Best Director nomination, I still feel like they'd hold off until the sequel to give it to him just like they did with Peter Jackson and The Lord of the Rings. This would allow them to give it to a seasoned overdue director like Paul Thomas Anderson or Wes Anderson. - Guillermo Del Toro's new movie Nightmare Alley seems like it has a good chance at a Best Picture nomination when you look at the cast and how much the Academy loved The Shape of Water.
@@catlover7 I think "Two distant strangers" probably will win because of it's subject. I understand why someone would consider it important, but I think it misses that acuity of giving you just enough so you can understand the emotional experience of the character, but not too much to the point it feels like it's forcing it to you. "Feeling Through" ,on the other hand, what a master piece
@@Guilhermesb29 You took the words right out of my mouth. I even think The Present is better at evoking emotions and in the end, conveying the message than Two Distant Strangers. But who knows, if enough voters have the same thought, maybe Feeling Through will win.
I really want to see Carey win. Yes because of pride for me saying for months that she could win, but also just because I want her to win so badly. She gives the best performance of the year if you ask me. She brings a certain level of vulnerability to her performance that I don't think other actresses could've brought to that role nor do I think the other nominees bring that level of vulnerability to their performances. I don't care that she doesn't scream or cry, I don't care that she doesn't transform, I don't care if it doesn't seem like an Oscar-winning performance. That doesn't matter to me, she should win because that's the best performance the Oscars has to offer across any category this year imo. Am I still gonna predict her? I am right now. I've been tempted to change my prediction just so I don't set myself up for disappointment, but I keep thinking about these other contenders and everything they have against them and it holds me back. Unless someone convinces me to change or I just decide on my own to give up and be the ultimate pessimist (which for me would be predicting Andra Day because I thought her performance was a little overrated), I'll probably stick with Carey. I don't feel good about it at all, and it is subject to change, but I just have a gut feeling that Carey has more passion than we give her credit for.
I thought she had the best performance as well. There aren't very many roles where I think to myself that no one else could play that role. This is one.
Great job with this. I’m a novice and I feel like you’ve prepared me well what to look for on Oscars Night. If you ever want a Grammys tutorial, I’m your guy.
Anthony Hopkins put in the best performance of the year out of all the acting categories, and it's genuinely saddening to think that he still may not win. I understand that people are saddened by what happened to Boseman and want to honor him, but it is neither fair nor helps the Academy's reputation to give him the award when Hopkins did the best job, a performance I believe that will go down in film history as one of the greats.
Boys. How can you call yourselves experts when all you do is listen to outside noise? Inside is where the answers lie. You knew Nomadland wasn’t the Best Picture when you watched it. However, now because it’s $1.13(and all that has led it to become that price) you say it’s not losing. Nomadland is a fragmented picture at best. BP has gotta be Trial, even though that movie is lame. If not Trial then something else(except Mank and Sound). There has never been a BP that looks like Nomadland, ever. Nomadland is the best film but it isn’t the best picture. That the other 7 nominees aren’t great pictures(in this COVID compromised year), is Nomad’s only chance.
I have a feeling Hopkins and Davis are both joining the two timers club😬 also I low key feel like Carey is the Laurie Metcalf of this year....people kept predicting Laurie and she kept losing and up to Oscar night people still were holding out for Laurie
Also, I have a political prediction I think Viola and Day may tie.. think about it.. it’s been 48 years since two black women have been in the same best actress category.. it just may be a tie or one over the other... this is clearly a political setup. I feel it.. idk
@@TheTomale also it was announced halle berry is presenting... she was the first black woman to win the oscar for best actress, imagine how fitting it would be for her to be present on the same night the second black woman wins best actress, perhaps even handing it to them?! it's crazy but i feel like history will be made
Same but I think Mcdormand is the winner. She got nominated everywhere and people need to stop saying Mulligan would have won. She didn't win. Why are you just assuming this is true. I've gotta know.
people who think boseman was best + people who vote out of sympathy > people who think hopkins was best - people who think hopkins is best but are swayed by sympathy
Exactly. It’s very elitist. Actors and Hollywood feature film directors get represented all year round. But for short film directors, documentarians, and people behind the scenes it’s such an platform for recognition.
Why do y’all expect Viola to cry all time? If you understood Ma Rainey you would know she wasn’t a crying or scorned woman. This wasn’t this type of movie. I hate that in order for a person of color really a “black artist” to win yall over that we have to exhume black trauma. Ugh I pray Viola wins just to end this narrative that tears, snot and trauma = winning Oscar. Ma was a strong women... Viola embodied that performance. Rooting for her !!
They are wrong about Trial not winning anything. It won SAG Ensemble. It definitely is at least the runner up, because it beat Minari which I would consider number 2 or 3 for BP. I think Trial has a small chance of upsetting for picture. It could pull a Green Book/Spotlight/Parasite. Unlikely, but possible.
One thing we need to remember is that The Academy is not a jury, consciously deciding each winner; there are approx. 9,000 members, and each vote in secret. While Boseman is clearly the front-runner, I do think the BAFTA win for Hopkins and loss at the Independent Spirit Awards remind us that not all people vote the same way. Of course his death is tragic and his nomination is bittersweet, but much like James Dean in the '50s, his only nomination(s) were posthumous. Only 2 actors have won posthumously in 93 years; Peter Finch ('77) and Heath Ledger ('09); and on both occasions their respective wins were both for their second nominations. Both performances were also very frenetic -- easily recognisable as both having substantial longevity in cinema history and immediately iconic. Boseman's performance is for a stage adaptation, and although very impassioned and clearly masterful, it does lack the usual hallmarks (quotable lines, memorable moments, iconic characterisation) that often comes along with an "Oscar-winning performance". That's not to say he doesn't deserve to win, however, but that I believe its far from being a lock. In '97 everybody expected Lauren Bacall to win for her Supporting Actress performance in THE MIRROR HAS TWO FACES. She won the SAG, the Golden Globe, but then failed to win the Oscar (and this was before she also lost at BAFTA a month later). Almost exactly the same thing happened when Sylvester Stallone lost the Oscar to Mark Rylance in '15 (except Stallone wasn't nominated for the SAG, which Rylance lost). Another clear indicator is the fact that these upsets were for films nominated for Best Picture. Boseman would have to secure the majority of votes from the entire membership to win, which would in itself be an incredible feat for a posthumous actor on their sole nomination, especially considering his tragically short career. Again, much like James Dean, he was beloved and his life was cut short far too soon, but even Dean failed to win even with two consecutive posthumous nominations (despite having culturally iconic roles). Hopkins makes such an impression in THE FATHER that it's hard to ignore or side-step, especially considering the stage at his respective career. Yes, he has won before, but if the logic for a Best Actress win for Viola Davis is: 'she should have two Oscars by now', then surly the same applies for Hopkins? For Boseman to win, The Academy would be setting a record for an actor winning on the sole posthumous nomination (it's literally unprecedented), and when you also factor in a lack of Best Picture nomination, it suddenly doesn't seem like the shoo-in people are expecting (acting like it's almost a given). It's for those reasons I'm predicting Hopkins.
I see no reason why it wouldn't win when it's been winning pretty much every foreign film award and is the only movie in the Best International Feature category to be nominated for Best Director. That kind of proves they like it the most.
I will forever believe you guys are putting too much weight on the BAFTAS. Those examples you used didn't help your cause. Rylance won in an unpredictable year. Stallone never had the type of support y'all believe he had. And Coleman won the Globe. She didnt exactly go into the Oscars empty handed. Boseman is winning. The backlash would be too great and when it comes to ×that× kind of backlash the Oscars do care about it. The Bafta is a great consolation prize for Hopkins
Maybe I’m naive, but these are individual votes, right? Many voters might consider all of the points made about who actually deserves it. Boseman will never get another chance, Hopkins has one, Hopkins was brilliant, Broseman was brilliant, etc. But I don’t think they send out a memo to the voters asking them to consider those reasons. They vote with their own reasons in mind. So you really can’t clump those reasons together. You just have to make your pick based on your own individual reason. You can’t assume the entire academy is collectively voting for a single reason. There is likely a consensus but the consensus would also be a coincidence.
What's the difference of Chadwick to Glenn if both win? Nothing, it's just because of sympathy... I'm leaning towards Hopkins because he deserves it even more!!
I'm waiting for the Eddies to solidify my prediction but I've locked in everything else. For Actor, I'm sticking with Boseman so I don't keep my hopes up, Actress will most likely be Mulligan, I'm saying Adapted goes to the Father, and everything I think will go as normal, most likely.
i wish feeling through win live action short film. its just so beautiful, and its on youtube to, so very available. i cant find white eye anywhere apparently, so my top is: 1. feeling through 2. the letter room 3. the present 4. two distant strangers
Somehow, Lakeith Stanfield will be the upset winner for Best Lead Actress
this made me chuckle XD
Lol
i laughed louder than i should have
Best answer ever
DAMN I LAUGHED TOO HARD
I think Anthony Hopkins pulled off the best performance of his lifetime, if he wins I will be ecstatic!!
@Montravius Daniel I think it’s 80% Chadwick and 20% Hopkins. But I’m rooting for Hopkins...
@@ev7785 I'm rooting for Hopkins also, the best performance in any category this year.
Hopkins all the wayy
@@ev7785 i agree
@Montravius Daniel yep, he definitely has better chances oscar night
I would love to see the final ballot results for how the Academy will vote for Best Actress
Yeah, would be sooo interesting.
Maybe looking back we would also ecstatic how close some races were and somr not.
Most likely everybody but Kirby is going to get something close to 20%
@@baraka92 Nobody's that hyped on Kirby.
I could honestly see a tie.
@@RareCinephile The chances of an exact tie are almost astronomical.
Anthony Hopkins deserves to win one more Oscar trophy as much as Boseman deserves his first Oscar trophy. Hopkins' performance is slightly better than Boseman so I think he is going to win. if Boseman still alive, there's no doubt Hopkins is going to win the whole thing
Imagine if Boseman and Hopkins tied...
Honestly...I would not be mad. Everybody wins in that scenario.
Will be the best tie ever
This is what I hope because I don't need my heart broken
@@rayhanihsannasution4199 Best tie since Katherine Hepburn and Barbara Streisand in 1969.
Dudyduduyduyy
Queen Youn Yuh-jung getting her deserved trophy!!!
@Montravius Daniel Amanda won zero important precursors sadly. I think she will eventually win this decade soon.
@Montravius Daniel honestly its more between youn yuh-jung and maria bakalova
Youn could only spoiler from the overdue narrative of close, but youn is so out of front and very deserving
@@ChrolliForever stop insulting close, if she wins she will have deserved it not just a career trophy
Glenn Close is overdue and her losing for the wife was a shock, I do want her to win but Youn Yuh-jung deserves it, but I wouldn't say Close is out cause you never know what the Academy are thinking about.
I still wish Riz Ahmed would have been more of a contender
Agreed, while Hopkins is still probably my favorite performance of the category, holy cow was Riz Ahmed PHENOMENAL in Sound of Metal, and for a while it was my favorite performance of 2020. I honestly would put Riz Ahmed over Chadwick Boseman (he gives a really strong performance too though)
@Montravius Daniel Oh for sure! When Chadwick Boseman wins I'll be happy, and even if he hadn't sadly passed away I would've been happy for him since he does deliver a great performance as well!
@Montravius Daniel if he isn't the best why does he deserve to Win?
In any other year Ahmed is a front runner
@Montravius Daniel watch more movies. He had potentially to be one of the greats and it is very sad he died in his prime. But Heath Ledger he ain't. Watch The Father and tell me Chadwick is better than Anthony. and if you do you sir will be liar.
To be honest, a couple of weeks ago after watching Boseman's performance I wanted him to win. But, I didn't love the movie. I wanted it to happen just to honor him... but then I saw The Father and as much as I'd like to honor Boseman, Hopkins delivers one of the greatest performances I've ever seen in my life. It's a masterpiece. In truth? How many of those performances haven't won Oscars... a lot. So, I'm not too confident in Hopkins because the narrative behind Boseman is strong and Hopkins isn't even going to attend the award. But if he wins, I'll be so happy. In other news... preferential ballots might award a random movie the award. It's not impossible, so I wouldn't be surprised something that isn't Nomadland randomly winning.
That's my issue as well, great performance in an eh movie. Whereas The Father and Sound of Metal have great performances in a great movie.
I am a huge Chadwick fan and am rooting for him at the Oscars but once I saw The Father I said ummmmm whew, Anthony performance blew me away! So I would not be upset if Anthony Hopkins wins the Oscar for Best Actor.
Ledger should have won his oscar dead or alive, no question. But, as good as boseman's performance is, hopkins was perfection imo. Im hoping he wins it
Ledger should have won for Brokeback Mountain 🤷🏽♂️
I'm reading this everywhere - those who watched the father all say Hopkins had one the greatest performances of this year. Probs of the year.
That's what I was thinking. Ledger was winning that award, dead or alive.
But Chadwick? I don't know. Not to be rude, but if he was still alive, Hopkins would take that Oscar without a doubt.
Ledger won because he died though. Superhero movies never get nominated. Phoenix won as Joker so Ledger’s win wouldn’t be seen as sympathetic.
Anthony hopkins deserves an Oscar
@Montravius Daniel Dude, calm down. You do know that it's okay for someone to prefer a performance that isn't Chadwick Boseman, right?
Personally, while Chadwick Boseman was great in the movie, I'd put both Anthony Hopkins (who I think gives the best performance I've seen in years) and Riz Ahmed (who is absolutely phenomenal in Sound of Metal) above him.
It's OKAY to disagree on what the best performance is. But don't attack people for not liking Chadwick Boseman's performance as much as you.
@Montravius Daniel shut up, I don't think you've seen The Father yet, Hopkins' performance was way superior than Chadwick. If Chadwick was alive there's no chance for him to win almost every Best Actor award
@Last Cosmonaut By miles is a very very huge exaggeration. Riz was way better than Hopkins. Just like people are overrating Chadwick because he died, you are overrating Hopkins cause he's old and he will die soon as well. If anything Riz Ahmed should win.
He already has one
He has one. Chadwick deserves it too
If Promising Young Woman won Best Actress and Original Screenplay, imagine if it upset for Best Picture lmao.
I do think it’s in second place.
It was snubbed for best cinematography ngl
Honestly could happen because at the moment I have no clue who will win actress but I assume screenplay will go to Chicago 7 even though Fennel has a chance
@@dashiellkwan276 Fennell is winning Original Screenplay though.
Ehh... :/
Don't sleep on Minari.....idk too many who would rank that low on a pref. ballot where as I can see people ranking Nomadland, Trial, and Promising Young Woman low
ALso Hopkins is the right winner.....
Brother Bro: My percentage rate for Anthont Hopkins winning has gone up to 30, 40% now
*votes Hopkins*
Look up the word "plurality"
@Montravius Daniel yayyyyyyyyy me too!!
@Montravius Daniel Me three, he was amazing
Yeah, Hopkins for the win please Academy!
Unfortunately, Boseman might win with the 3rd best performance of the year...
Maybe I’m just stubborn, but I’m sticking with Boseman for Best Actor. I feel the the Actor’s branch will look at Hopkins and say “you were great, but you already have one.” Besides, Hopkins may very well be nominated again in the near future. Boseman won’t be. I’m no psychic, so I won’t pretend to know for sure, it’s just my gut feeling.
He will win it because of the nomination, I wonder if he'd still be alive he would even get nominated. He's gone too soon, what a pity. My faves are Riz Ahmed and Hopkins, they were brilliant.
The „already have one“ narrative is so not real. There are so many multiple Oscar winners in acting.
I'm surprised you're not going with The Father in Screenplay. I think that's the easier place to reward it than over Boseman (and let's be real, BAFTA's always had problems rewarding African-American actors alive or dead)
like, when was the last time the BAFTA surprise winner won the Oscar over an African-American frontrunner? Alan Arkin over Eddie Murphy? And we know he had issues with the industry.
I'm really pushing for Carey Mulligan and Youn Yuh-Jung to win for Best Actress and Best Supporting Actress. I would also not be surprised if Anthony Hopkins upsets Chadwick Boseman for Best Actor. Finally, Daniel Kaluuya has no competition whatsoever.
That's gonna cause backlash if Boseman looses.
@@tymoviedatabase7788 Which it shouldn't because Ma'Raineys was a total bore.
@@scorpioninpink It will.
@@scorpioninpink but the Oscar goes to the performance, not the movie
@@tymoviedatabase7788 Oscars really don’t give a fuck about backlash.
I guess I’m sticking with Carey. The love for PYW barely edges it out to her. Could DEFINITELY see Viola winning tho.
I would go with Davis but Ma Rainey does not have a Best Picture nomination and I can't see a Non-Best Picture nominee winning 4 Oscars.
@@christianknight727 Yeah that’s why I’m hesitant
Is betwen Carey and Andra for me
Remember in 2019 when Glenn Close won the Golden Globe, SAG, Critics Choice and lost to Olivia Colman at the Oscars and at the BAFTAs? Remember in 1997 when Lauren Bacall won SAG and Golden Globe and lost to Juliette Binoche at both BAFTAS and Oscars? I have this feeling about Chadwick Boseman vs. Anthony Hopkins this year. The Academy loves to surprise with the results. The entire world is thinking Chadwick will win, but Anthony will get the award for The Father
Colman also won the Golden Globe though.
@@pb.j.1753 Glenn won the Golden Globe for Best Actress in Drama while Olivia won her Globe for Best Actress in comedy
IO SI (SEEN) will win for Best original song ❤
I like Lesile Odom Jr. chances for Speak Now
nomadland sweep incoming and i cannot wait! really good predictions... similar to mine we're all on the same wavelength 😌
i don't necessarily think the british actors winning at bafta is always the 'home advantage' but more that the baftas are more removed from the narrative around who should win and vote based on who was actually better. at least i think that's the case with the hopkins win last week
When you mentioned the Mark Rylance win.. it reminded me of the Alan Arkin win: Eddie Murphy won Globe, Critics choice and sag, and then out of nowhere Alan wins Bafta, and bam: Wins Oscar
Eddie should have won.
If Hopkins dosn't win I will call the police
And?
He just made one of the greatest performances ever as he did in Silence of the Lambs. He must win his second.
And although Boseman performance is very good, it isn't in the same category of Hopkin's performance.
Hopkins had already won a Oscar and Boseman death have nothing to do with it.
I'm always conflicted on who would win and who should win whenever I make these predictions for the Oscars.
Not gonna happen, but fingers crossed for Ahmed and Raci!!
and Vanessa Kirby :((
Yeah, that would be a great bunch of winners as well
@@thearabicmusicland Nobody cares about Vanessa Kirby. Why you still on that sinking ship?
@@rustincohle2135 Why are you so hateful?
@@thearabicmusicland Hateful? Why you so sensitive? You were so right about Kirby winning the SAG and BAFTA, so she's a total lock for Oscar!
leaving here my bet on Do Not Split for short documentary
Carey Mulligan does have a breakdown scene in PYW!
Also, remember that “The Father” was having screener issues even when it pulled off a Best Picture nomination. For these reasons, I am betting Hopkins for Lead Actor. “The Father” being present in the Best Picture lineup and “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom” being omitted in both Best Picture and Adapted Screenplay helps me warrant this prediction as well.
Actually, a voter said that it had sent screener earlier, so that issue was proven untrue. The screener problem only happened for critics which explained how Hopkins' performance wasn't awarded at many critics.
@@melvinezekiel6304 true, even tho he showed up as nominee in critics group, I heard that many of them couldn't get the screener until it's finally released on demand last month so it's reasonable that hopkins losing. 1 anonymous voter also said that they got the screener of the father quickly from SPC so I think SPC did the campaign well at the very last second, might be a big advantage for hopkins.
Who is here after Anthony Hopkins Won Best Actor?
Y’all still predicting a win for Carey and coming up with hypothetical scenarios as to why this is with only a critics choice award over people with actual wins that mean something lol Hopkins is now in play for best actor after a bafta win? When Chadwick has swept everywhere else. Hmm I want you guys to take a long hard look in the mirror ask yourselves why is that.
It should be because Hopkins, in a clear-cut manner, put in the best performance of 2020. It's nice to see Boseman be honored, but his wins so far over Hopkins and Ahmed, who also put in a clearly superior performance, were not justified based solely on Boseman's performance. I think lots of people could look in the mirror if you want to go there (I'm not white nor black myself however). Boseman should be given an honorary Oscar, while Hopkins should be given the Best Actor Oscar for putting in the best performance onscreen in several years, which should be the only criterion for the award.
People are sleeping on 'Quo Vadis, Aida? It is one of the best films of the year and in my opinion superior to 'Another Round'. You never know, 'Amelie' and 'Pan's Labyrinth' didn't win Best Foreign Film back in their days despite having multiple nominations and being the frontrunners.
I am rooting for 'The Father' in Best Adapted Screenplay. It's a better film than 'Nomadland' and a better script at the same time. Fingers crossed on these two categories for a possible upset. 🤞
Different voting system were used when Amelie and Pan's Labyrinth lost.
Lads love the channel but I suggest don’t call categories “ less important”
Yeah Another Round is 🔥!
I want carey mulligan to win so bad!!
Let's be honest... Viola Davis should have been nominated for supporting actress. She has like 26 minutes of screen time in "Ma Rainey."
Queen of category fraud. She won for Fences and would win for Ma Rainey in the wrong categories.
Olivia Coleman was supporting in The Favourite
@Montravius Daniel The movie should have been more about her, but dramatically, the plot centered around Chadwick Boseman's character, which is why he has double her screen time in it. I would argue that Davis' character acts more of a foil or antagonist to Boseman's character, which would make her role that of supporting.
So true, and she would have swept the entire season.
@@hardsam68 The difference here is that The Favourite did not have a clear protagonist. All three main characters were their own protagonists, which means that an argument could have been made for all three of them being nominated in supporting or lead. In Ma Rainey, Boseman's character is the clear lead protagonist
You both have such nice hair.
Poor Glenn Close, early on I thought she had a serious chance of winning but her chances are probably dead now. Maybe one day...
She need a stronger film (one who has a best picture, screenplay nominations), the wife and this one are weak films.
She should have won for Fatal Attraction..... fight me 😸
@@victordunson719 absolutely. Or dangerous liaisons the year after.
@@jimmyl324 , Absolutely. The scene where she removes her makeup alone should have won it for her.
@@victordunson719 the confrontation with John Malkovich at the end is excellent.
This year is weird. I haven't watched most of the nominees (because lack of time) and I don't have personal locks for most of the nominees (although I am rooting for anything Nomadland and Minari). This is the least excited I've been for the Oscars since I first watched it in 2007 and this feeling isn't even my choice. 🙁
Best Picture: Nomadland
Best Director: Chloe Zhao
Best Actress: Carey Mulligan
Best Actor: Chadwick Boseman
Best Supporting Actress: Yuh-Jung Youn
Best Supporting Actor: Daniel Kaluuya
Best Adapted Screenplay: Nomadland
Best Original Screenplay: Promising Young Woman
Best Cinematography: Nomadland
Best Costume Design: Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Best Film Editing: The Trial of the Chicago 7
Best Makeup and Hairstyling: Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Best Production Design: Mank
Best Original Score: Soul
Best Original Song: Speak Now
Best Sound: Sound of Metal
Best Visual Effects: Tenet
Best Animated Feature: Soul
Best Documentary Feature: My Octopus Teacher
Best International Feature: Another Round
Best Animated Short: If Anything Happens I Love You
Best Documentary Short Subject: A Love Song For Latasha
Best Live Action Short: Two Distant Strangers
i think the father could pull off adapted screenplay. Don't rule out trial of the chicago 7 yet for editing either
@@arunmunagala8333 I agree but I'm playing it safe with those categories.
@Last Cosmonaut What I mean by that is that I’m going with what has won the most awards in that specific category.
You kinda lost me 10 seconds in when you said “less important categories” 😪😪😪 that’s already bad enough (undermining the importance of the crafts/techs) but you then followed it with “Best International Feature” 🥴 (as if a non-US film was “less” than a US one) no, man... just... no
Not to mention “Another Round” is probably the Best Film of 2020 tbh
I don’t think they meant to undermine it, just that people in general tend to watch these videos and the awards shows as a whole to see people win these awards.
@@monkeyangelo717 Quo Vadis Aida was BREATHTAKING from start to finish and Jasna Duricic gives probably the fiercest performance I’ve ever seen (no joke)
So yeah, long story short, that was a weird way to phrase it from them 🤷🏻♂️
@@chucho_qmp They need to review Quo Vadis and admit it’s the most deserving winner!
There are so many locks I just can't wait to see the upsets :D I also think Anthony Hopkins is going to win, and it's not reasonable but I feel Riz Ahmed still has a chance. Very exciting acting race!
I hate it when people say, "Oh, Chadwick Boseman is gonna win because he's dead and black." Stop saying that! That is not the truth!
They make that sound as if all the other posthumous or black winners weren't or couldn't be valid
But it's the truth. No way he would win if he were alive.
I am not racist, but he was third best in the category after Hopkins and Ahmed and most agree. But Boseman has the narrative to win.
@@ChrolliForever I won't judge Hopkins because I haven't seen his performance. However, I wouldn't necessarily say that Ahmed was better Boseman. He was very good, but Chadwick stood out to me and there was a big range of emotions that he had and could express. Anyways, it's the point of voting for performances: everyone will use their own subjectivity since actors aren't theoretically there to compete against each other. But I can't believe people saying Boseman's performance wasn't that good.
@@ChrolliForever you sound a bit racist m8
I have a feeling the Academy don't appreciate the kind of roles Cray Mulligan played, like when Glenn Close lost for Fatal Attraction and Rosamand Pike lost for Gone Girl. I think she won't win just because of that.
Kathy Bates in Misery and Frances McDormand in Three Billboards prevailed though which can be considered in that company.
It's not quiet the same, I'm talking about smart and strong female characters who want revenge from a man (men), to a point they might be considered psychos. Frances's character was completely different, it's not evil and it's not revenge that she wants , Kathy Bates in Misery is more like Louise Fischer in One flew over the cuckoo's nest, but both are different from the kind of characters Mulligan plays in PYW
@@markjamesatienza2966 Also Frances was sweeping all precursors for Three Billboards. There was no doubt she wouldn’t win the Oscar.
I'm just saying you can't count out Carey Mulligan to possibly pull off a win.
And personally, I don't think Mulligan's character is evil or sociopath enough to be compared to both Close in Fatal Attraction or Pike in Gone Girl. McDormand in Three Billboards is a more reasonable comparison for me as they are both seeking justice for their loved ones in extreme ways that they're almost maddeningly scary.
I really do think this is between Viola Davis and Andra Day. As much as I loved her performance and would love to see her win, I find it hard to believe Carey Mulligan has a lot of support given that she lost the SAG - an award that her peers all voted on. Plus, I do think that given the narrative of Davis and Day playing historical black women - that's very hard to shrug off in a time where the Oscars are finally being more inclusive and recognizing diverse actors. Overall, great set of nominees this year!
Maybe Andra Day would win if her movie didn’t suck
I would consider them more if The Academy actually liked the movies they were in.
@@quindariousgooch4696 critics didn’t like Andra’s film, just like they didn’t like Meryl Streep’s 2011 film The Iron Lady. In both cases, the Golden Globe winner-to-Oscar winner streak was supposed to be broken. In both cases, people who watched the film were kinder than the critics, and loved the lead actress’ perform. In both films....
@@rhythmoriented The Iron Lady wasn't a lone Best Actress nominee. Streep is a respected veteran, unlike Day.
@@oskari7121 history never repeats itself in exactly the same way. For example, The Academy wasn’t tipping their hand to have a second black Best Actress that year like this year (Halle Berry is at the top of the featured attendees). The key here is to be open-minded to the possibility of an Andra Day win, as to part of the drama that we have almost come to expect from Oscar night.
I'm so sick of Pixar winning!!! Wolfwalkers is so beautiful!! Proud to be Irish!
I know many people are casting Soul for Best Original Score but my pick is Minari.
Its going to be McDormand and her speech will be glorious!!!!!!!
McDormand will already win for Best Picture, but if she wins Best Actress as well, it’ll make me wish even more that Margot Robbie _(I, Tonya)_ had won three years ago instead.
2 previous Oscars be damned, Frances gave the best performance!!
Everyone else was good, but I could tell they were acting. Frances was completely seamless!
@@Wired4Life2 Lets wait and see!
she's not even going to the Oscars ahah
Film editing: Sound of Metal
Best actor: Boseman (Hopkins should win, performance wise)
Best actress: NO CLUE
Best director: Nomad
Cinematography: Nomadland clearly
Orig screenplay: Promising or Trail
Adap screenplay: The Father or Nomad (The father had better screenplay play but people are liking Nomad more so it’ll probably win.)
Sound: SOUND OF METAL clearly
Best supporting actor: DK
Best supporting actress: Seyfried or Coleman
Product: Mank
Costume: Emma - Ma Rainys
Makeup: Ma rainys
Picture: Nomadland (I honestly thought The Father was a stronger film)
Visual: Tenet (I haven’t seen Tenet but people say it’ll win)
I really loved Minari, I wouldn’t be surprised if the lady wins for supporting actress, cant remember her name
I don’t think Seyfried or Colman are winning, unless this is just who you want to win
@@seankoontz4235 its a list of who should win
@@seankoontz4235 I meant what will win
Her name is Youn Yuh-jung. 😊
The only ones they got wrong were best song, cinematography, adapted screenplay and actress
Im still Holding Hope for at least ONE WIN for Chicago 7
Me too. Especially because I enjoyed it more than most people did.
@@christianknight727 SAAME. I think that a lot of people don't like it much, but I thoroughly enjoyed it. If Nomadland doesn't win Picture, its a 3 horse race. Nomadland, Chicago 7, Promising Young Woman. I still think it could win Editing, OG Screenplay, or Picture.
For the editing, I would go for The Father for how its editing heavily impacted the story buildup. They may have one of the simplest editing techniques, but it brought a new layer of excitement to a story which is kinda predictable. Anyway, Hopkins is also my Best Actor pick for I, too, was surprisingly moved by his manipulative performance. 👏🏼
Great video guys! I enjoyed every part of it especially when you said that the Best Actress category should be in a separate discussion for the lineup this year is honestly unpredictable. 🤧❤️
I also have my own 2021 Oscars winners prediction video below:
ua-cam.com/video/XRCTSJPY9mc/v-deo.html
My predictions:
International Feature - Another Round
Documentary Feature - My Octopus Teacher
Animated Feature - Soul
Visual Effects - Tenet
Sound - Sound of Metal
Song - Husavik
Score - Soul
Production Design - Mank
Makeup and Hair - Ma Rainey
Editing - Nomadland
Costume Design - Ma Rainey
Cinematography - Nomadland
Original Screenplay - Promising Young Woman
Adapted Screenplay - Nomadland
Sup Actor - Daniel Kaluuya
Sup Actress - Yuh-Jung Youn
Actor - Anthony Hopkins
Actress - Frances McDormand
Director - Nomadland
Picture - Minari
Live Action Short - Feeling Through
Documentary Short - Do Not Split
Animated Short - Opera
woah you have minari winning best pic with its only other award being sup actress? No way. I think i agree with you on this completely except switch minari best pic to nomadland.
@@joeya5147 I have this weird feeling Minari could pull a Moonlight-type upset, though realistically Nomadland will probably win
@@jamesp2424 yes but moonlight won screenplay and supporting, and had 8 oscar nominations. Minari is only winning supporting and has a total of only 6 nominations. Moonlight didnt seem obvious but it are least had a decent chance. Minari I view as less than 5% if that even
If Minari is to win BP it has to upset screenplay.
Best Picture: Minari( going of the anonymous ballots I feel there is a lot of support for this in the acdmey, and think it will win preferential ballot system as the 2nd place has always been winning though i wouldn't be shocked if nomadland won)
Best Director: Chloe Zhao(though fennel MAY upset )
Actress: Andre Day ( Gold derby pointed out we don't know how she's doing, and that what we have heard, she is impressing the academy voters, PLUS announcing Haily Berry gives me the impression that it will either go to Viola or Andre, because she is the only black women in history to win best actress
Best Actor: Anthony Hopkins( People are saying he was better than chadwick, and it is of note that The father wasn't accessible, before other award shows, not mention The oscars are about anonymous voter said, Chadwick prefomcne felt to the theater"
Best Supporting Actress: Yuh-Jung Youn
Best Supporting Actor: Daniel Kaluuya(HOWEVER 3 of 4 the anonymous ballots mentioned they preferred Sacha baron cohen over Kaluya )
Best Adapted Screenplay: The Father( Nomadland isn't really a screenplay movie, However it's possible that Borat may win this as well!)
Best Costume Design: Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Best Film Editing: Sound of Metal
Best Makeup and Hairstyling: Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Best Production Design: Mank
Best Original Score: Soul
Best song: Husavik(It's the only song that isn't played during the credits, it stands out among the nommiees being the only poppy song you would listen to on the radio, and isn't cliche oscar bait son)
Best Visual Effects: The Midnight sky( Really i think Love and Monsters could actually upset as they have been going for more smaller practical effects movies lately But i think Midnight sky has it, and over tennet because they haven't gotten screeners and most voters going of the anonymous ballots don't like it)
Best Animated Feature: Soul (FUCKING I HATE THAT ITS GOING TO DISNEY PIXAR FILM TO THE 13TH TIME AND PETE DOCTOR DOSN'T NEED A 3RD OSCAR WHEN THERE ARE DOZENS OF INDUSTRY LEGENDS WHO DONT EVEN GOTTEN ONE!)
Best Animated Short: If Anything Happens I Love You
Best Documentary Short Subject: A Love Song For Latasha
Best Live Action Short: The letter room
Your voting with your heart, not your brain. Minari ain’t winning because of a couple of anonymous ballots.
@@joostkale5142 True, However, think of this way, A: the 2nd place always wins the best picture. B: Is this real a movie the acdmey will love? Remember their over 10k members in the academy, many of whom are traditionalist with not good taste. Who well will you think a slow boing movie about a bunch baby boomers from the midwest really do well on a preferential ballot system)
@@notchuckproductions5029 A Shape of Water, Spotlight, Argo and the kings speech (kinda). But the real thing about the other numbers 2s is, there actually was a clear number 2. Parasite, Moonlight and Green book where all clear number 2s because they won at least something. Minari, Trial and Promising Young Woman all have nothing.
B: Well The BAFTA’s, Sags, Critics choice, Golden Globes, PGA and DGA all thought it was the best, so why would the oscars think: Nah its not the best?
Best Actress to Andra or Viola is kinda impossible because both won the GG wnd SAG... It is gonna be very tough for the academy to choose.. So tough that it may eventually cancel each other by awarding it to carey just for being the dark horse(and ofc with the critics choice win)...
Maybe this could finally be the year where u dont need a GG and SAG to win best actress..
@@joostkale5142 Fair ponit, and yah it will probably win, that being said, we don't know if their is backlash, becuse it virtual, and it still perlexes me that in a year with were diversity is such a major issue, the movie Poor midwest baby boomers, wins.
I predicted Chicago 7 for editing, the father for screenplay, burrow for animated short, and viola Davis for best actress. I think that was the only differences. I realize most of my picks are risks but I believe if u get the best picture nom then u should win something
How would you rank the Best Picture Nominees? My ranking is a little controversial but here it is:
1. Minari (5/5)
2. The Father (5/5)
3. Sound of Metal (5/5)
4. Judas and the Black Messiah (5/5)
5. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (4.5/5)
6. Nomadland (4.5/5)
7. Promising Young Woman (4/5)
8. Mank (2.5/5)
1. Promising Young Woman 10/10
2. Minari 9/10
3. Sound of Metal 9/10
4. Judas and the Black Messiah 8/10
5. The Father 8/10
6. Mank 8/10
7. Nomadland 5/10
The Trial of the Chicago 7 3/10
@@nate-it9xq Great ranking.
Minari
Sound of Metal
The Father
Judas and the Black Messiah
Promising Young Woman
Nomadland
The Trial of the Chicago 7
Mank
@@jose.a98 Great ranking.
1. Promising Young Woman (10/10)
2. The father (9.5/10)
3. Sound of metal (9/10)
4. Trial of Chicago 7 (9/10)
5. Judas and the Black Messiah (7.5/10)
6. Mank (6/10)
I haven't see Nomadland and Minari
I am not sure if it’s possible but what if Sound of Metal and the Trial tie for editing? Zero Dark Thirty and Skyfall did tie back in 2013 so I am wondering if we can see that? I am not sure if the Academy would allow the Trial to walk away empty handed, particularly that Sorkin is so much involved
Indie Spirits will be telling for actress. They’ve never not awarded the Oscar winner if they were nominated their. Viola vs Carey vs Frances. If Viola wins then I’m gonna have to switch over to her from Carey
Yeah I’m not predicting Best Actress until I see who their winner is
But there’s zero crossover between Indie Spirits and the Oscars. Anyone who pays a membership can vote for the Spirits.
@@calvinlaw7790 and? They have 100% accuracy if the Oscar winner is nominated, that can’t be ignored
@@calvinlaw7790 The thing is that every time the Indie Spirits nominated the eventual Oscar Lead Actress winner, she wins every single time - so it’s based off of correlation
...less important categories first...
*starts with International Feature* OUCH!
I got the feeling that best lead actress is gonna be a tie this year!
Between who?
Best Picture: Nomadland
Best Director: Nomadland
Best Actor: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Boseman)
Best Actress: Nomadland (Mcdormand) (FREAKING CALLED IT)
Best Supporting Actor: Judas & The Black Messiah (Kaluuya)
Best Supporting Actress: Minari (Youn)
Best Original Screenplay: Promising Young Woman
Best Adapted Screenplay: Nomadland
Best Animated Feature: Soul
Best Foreign Film: Another Round
Best Documentary: My Octopus Teacher
Best Original Score: Soul
Best Original Song: One Night In Miami
Best Sound: Sound Of Metal
Best Production Design: Mank
Best Cinematography: Nomadland
Best Makeup & Hairstyling: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Best Costume Design: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Best Editing: Trial Of Chicago 7
Best Visual Effects: Tenet
Best Animated Short: If Anything Happens I Love You
Best Documentary Short: A Love Song For Latasha
Best Live Action Short: The Letter Room
@Montravius Daniel This would be insane. Theres no way David Fincher is winning best director.
People are seriously sleeping on Quo Vadis, Aida
@@sabinakulic288 It could happen.
believe me Frances is not winning best Actress, the BAFTA win is just because Carey Mulligan was snubbed by the jury. she is still the front-runner.
@@thearabicmusicland Don't just assume that Mulligan would have won. We assumed she would win the Sag guess what she didn't. Not saying she doesn't have a chance but a lot of this feels like going through the first stage of grief: denial. To be clear I think Carey Mulligan is the the second most likely.
*Adam Driver's voice* everyday I wake up....... and have a different prediction for Best Actress
You Deserve An Oscar For This Comment... 😂😂😂😂
Andrea Day is going to win
While I readily admit that no one on this planet could have pulled off Frances McDormand’s creation and portrayal of Fern with the same grace and sensitivity, I have a feeling that Andra Day will actually end up being the surprise of the night. As for the others: GREAT performances, but it would be easy to insert alternative actresses and have films if similar quality.
I strongly disagree. I can see no else playing the part of Cassie better than Carey Mulligan.
@@oskari7121 strongly disagree. Scarjo, Emilia Clarke, Evan Rachel Wood, etc., etc. Carey’s got a great catalogue of films, and she’ll be in Maestro opposite Bradley Cooper. I’d love to see the same type of support for this and other future projects.
@@rhythmoriented You seriously believe Emilia Clarke could have pulled off that performance? She’s really not that great of an actress, especially compared to Mulligan.
And even I can’t picture anyone else doing justice Mulligan’s role.
@@Reva-mz8yl just a short list of actresses who would have done just fine in role. As with any film, that would have changed characteristics, and who knows, a (for example) Scarjo casting would have elevated PYW and her chances of winning an Oscar.
Now, let’s think of who could have pulled off the role of Fern better than Frances McDormand, and elevated Nomadland(?)......
@@rhythmorientedI never said someone could do a better job than McDormand, but the same applies to Mulligan too imo. Johansson is a good actor and maybe her interpretation would have been good,albeit different but Mulligan has dynamic screen presence in that movie and juggles both comedy and drama very well. Tbh, this is a strong best actress lineup, I don’t think any actress is replaceable.
Brother Bro : It wasn't the best performance in the category
And yet still rooting for her...🤪
Looking at the history of the Oscars, if The Father beats Nomadland for Adapted Screenplay, there seems to be a chance for that or Promising Young Woman/Trial of the Chicago to win best picture. Rarely has a best picture winner not won a screenplay award. Is this accurate or is Nomadland an exception because of a lack of a script?
The Shape of Water was considered one of the weaker screenplay nominees that year, but had strong odds to win in categories considered to be above-line (director) and below-line (production design and score). Nomadland has a similar scenario with director and cinematography, respectively.
The Artist did not win Screenplay as well
Carey Mulligan is my favorite living actor but I just can't see her take the Oscar this time. She can not win after only winning Critics Choice imo. That is not a peer group.
Russell Crowe won Best Actor for Gladiator with only a Critic Choice award though.. it's not impossible !
@@thomasrigours6857 Thanks! That is a good stat. Well then it is not impossible but I still can’t see it.
She could have won BAFTA had there not been a jury nominating committee where she was snubbed there.
2022 Best Picture Nominee predictions:
The French Dispatch
Dune
West Side Story
Babylon
And a bunch that no one’s heard of yet
Maybe Soggy Bottom? They really love Paul Thomas Anderson, it's Philip Seymour Hoffman's son's first movie (Cooper Hoffman), Bradley Cooper is in it who has been nominated a lot, it's a period movie set in the 70s, and the plot is about a young actor. Inherent Vice had more mediocre ratings and the Academy didn't like it as much but that was _still_ nominated for Best Adapted Screenplay and Best Costume Design. Soggy Bottom (if that's even the final name) sounds like it has a pretty good chance.
Also Babylon got delayed to Christmas Day 2022. It's not close to being in contention with the 2022 Oscar nominees anymore.
@@visualsforyou7120 ooh that’s a good one. Imagine if it becomes a two horse race between Wes and PTA both fighting for their first win. And dang that sucks about Babylon
@@makotocarolin Battle of the Andersons. Even though we're not close to accurately predicting the 2022 Oscars I feel like there's a good chance of that happening. Both are seasoned directors who've been nominated before and are regarded as some of the best directors in history. Some other thoughts:
- If Dune is super good and Denis Villeneuve gets a Best Director nomination, I still feel like they'd hold off until the sequel to give it to him just like they did with Peter Jackson and The Lord of the Rings. This would allow them to give it to a seasoned overdue director like Paul Thomas Anderson or Wes Anderson.
- Guillermo Del Toro's new movie Nightmare Alley seems like it has a good chance at a Best Picture nomination when you look at the cast and how much the Academy loved The Shape of Water.
@@visualsforyou7120 I was very high on Soggy Bottom, but that September release date has me really confused.
Even though it's not likely, I'm rooting for "Feeling Through" in Live Action Short Film
Me too! What a beautiful film. But which one do you think is the most likely to win?
It's my favorite as well!
@@catlover7 I think "Two distant strangers" probably will win because of it's subject. I understand why someone would consider it important, but I think it misses that acuity of giving you just enough so you can understand the emotional experience of the character, but not too much to the point it feels like it's forcing it to you. "Feeling Through" ,on the other hand, what a master piece
@@Guilhermesb29 You took the words right out of my mouth. I even think The Present is better at evoking emotions and in the end, conveying the message than Two Distant Strangers. But who knows, if enough voters have the same thought, maybe Feeling Through will win.
Do you think there could be ties?
Nomanland Must Win best picture!
@Montravius Daniel Nope
I would love Frances McDormand to win
@Montravius Daniel What about Vannesa Kirby?
Who F -- King Cares?
They went with gravity over captain Phillips so I think the Oscars can go with less cutty shit
I really want to see Carey win. Yes because of pride for me saying for months that she could win, but also just because I want her to win so badly. She gives the best performance of the year if you ask me. She brings a certain level of vulnerability to her performance that I don't think other actresses could've brought to that role nor do I think the other nominees bring that level of vulnerability to their performances. I don't care that she doesn't scream or cry, I don't care that she doesn't transform, I don't care if it doesn't seem like an Oscar-winning performance. That doesn't matter to me, she should win because that's the best performance the Oscars has to offer across any category this year imo. Am I still gonna predict her? I am right now. I've been tempted to change my prediction just so I don't set myself up for disappointment, but I keep thinking about these other contenders and everything they have against them and it holds me back. Unless someone convinces me to change or I just decide on my own to give up and be the ultimate pessimist (which for me would be predicting Andra Day because I thought her performance was a little overrated), I'll probably stick with Carey. I don't feel good about it at all, and it is subject to change, but I just have a gut feeling that Carey has more passion than we give her credit for.
I thought she had the best performance as well. There aren't very many roles where I think to myself that no one else could play that role. This is one.
Great job with this. I’m a novice and I feel like you’ve prepared me well what to look for on Oscars Night.
If you ever want a Grammys tutorial, I’m your guy.
Alright bet, who do you think as the best chance at Best New Artist?
Anthony Hopkins put in the best performance of the year out of all the acting categories, and it's genuinely saddening to think that he still may not win. I understand that people are saddened by what happened to Boseman and want to honor him, but it is neither fair nor helps the Academy's reputation to give him the award when Hopkins did the best job, a performance I believe that will go down in film history as one of the greats.
Boys. How can you call yourselves experts when all you do is listen to outside noise? Inside is where the answers lie.
You knew Nomadland wasn’t the Best Picture when you watched it. However, now because it’s $1.13(and all that has led it to become that price) you say it’s not losing. Nomadland is a fragmented picture at best. BP has gotta be Trial, even though that movie is lame. If not Trial then something else(except Mank and Sound). There has never been a BP that looks like Nomadland, ever.
Nomadland is the best film but it isn’t the best picture.
That the other 7 nominees aren’t great pictures(in this COVID compromised year), is Nomad’s only chance.
I completed my guesses for the Oscar Bingo card already however it's fun to learn predictions that aren'tmy own. Thanks for your video.
I'm predicting two distant strangers but I hope feeling through take it, it's my favorite and the most uplifting one
I have a feeling Hopkins and Davis are both joining the two timers club😬 also I low key feel like Carey is the Laurie Metcalf of this year....people kept predicting Laurie and she kept losing and up to Oscar night people still were holding out for Laurie
I’m in incline to agree with this ... I’m rooting for Davis.
Also, I have a political prediction I think Viola and Day may tie.. think about it.. it’s been 48 years since two black women have been in the same best actress category.. it just may be a tie or one over the other... this is clearly a political setup. I feel it.. idk
Laurie Metcalf lost to a sweeper though.
@@TheTomale also it was announced halle berry is presenting... she was the first black woman to win the oscar for best actress, imagine how fitting it would be for her to be present on the same night the second black woman wins best actress, perhaps even handing it to them?! it's crazy but i feel like history will be made
Same but I think Mcdormand is the winner. She got nominated everywhere and people need to stop saying Mulligan would have won. She didn't win. Why are you just assuming this is true. I've gotta know.
people who think boseman was best + people who vote out of sympathy > people who think hopkins was best - people who think hopkins is best but are swayed by sympathy
I want Vanessa Kirby to win Best Actress just for the hell of it.
Question to you all: Can Trial only win Editing now that it has won ACE? Has a film only won Editing before?
Girl with the Dragon Tattoo in 2012
Can’t think of any others
@@seankoontz4235 thank you!
Chadwick Bosemans just getting an Oscar because he died..
Guys don't say a category isn't important! For some people that's the main category they care about
clearly some are more important than others. I think thats what they meant by it.
Exactly. It’s very elitist. Actors and Hollywood feature film directors get represented all year round. But for short film directors, documentarians, and people behind the scenes it’s such an platform for recognition.
Remember Louis CK presenting Documentary Short? He was saying something similar. That was hilarious
Why do y’all expect Viola to cry all time? If you understood Ma Rainey you would know she wasn’t a crying or scorned woman. This wasn’t this type of movie. I hate that in order for a person of color really a “black artist” to win yall over that we have to exhume black trauma. Ugh I pray Viola wins just to end this narrative that tears, snot and trauma = winning Oscar. Ma was a strong women... Viola embodied that performance. Rooting for her !!
They are wrong about Trial not winning anything. It won SAG Ensemble. It definitely is at least the runner up, because it beat Minari which I would consider number 2 or 3 for BP. I think Trial has a small chance of upsetting for picture. It could pull a Green Book/Spotlight/Parasite. Unlikely, but possible.
One thing we need to remember is that The Academy is not a jury, consciously deciding each winner; there are approx. 9,000 members, and each vote in secret. While Boseman is clearly the front-runner, I do think the BAFTA win for Hopkins and loss at the Independent Spirit Awards remind us that not all people vote the same way. Of course his death is tragic and his nomination is bittersweet, but much like James Dean in the '50s, his only nomination(s) were posthumous. Only 2 actors have won posthumously in 93 years; Peter Finch ('77) and Heath Ledger ('09); and on both occasions their respective wins were both for their second nominations. Both performances were also very frenetic -- easily recognisable as both having substantial longevity in cinema history and immediately iconic. Boseman's performance is for a stage adaptation, and although very impassioned and clearly masterful, it does lack the usual hallmarks (quotable lines, memorable moments, iconic characterisation) that often comes along with an "Oscar-winning performance". That's not to say he doesn't deserve to win, however, but that I believe its far from being a lock. In '97 everybody expected Lauren Bacall to win for her Supporting Actress performance in THE MIRROR HAS TWO FACES. She won the SAG, the Golden Globe, but then failed to win the Oscar (and this was before she also lost at BAFTA a month later). Almost exactly the same thing happened when Sylvester Stallone lost the Oscar to Mark Rylance in '15 (except Stallone wasn't nominated for the SAG, which Rylance lost). Another clear indicator is the fact that these upsets were for films nominated for Best Picture. Boseman would have to secure the majority of votes from the entire membership to win, which would in itself be an incredible feat for a posthumous actor on their sole nomination, especially considering his tragically short career. Again, much like James Dean, he was beloved and his life was cut short far too soon, but even Dean failed to win even with two consecutive posthumous nominations (despite having culturally iconic roles). Hopkins makes such an impression in THE FATHER that it's hard to ignore or side-step, especially considering the stage at his respective career. Yes, he has won before, but if the logic for a Best Actress win for Viola Davis is: 'she should have two Oscars by now', then surly the same applies for Hopkins? For Boseman to win, The Academy would be setting a record for an actor winning on the sole posthumous nomination (it's literally unprecedented), and when you also factor in a lack of Best Picture nomination, it suddenly doesn't seem like the shoo-in people are expecting (acting like it's almost a given). It's for those reasons I'm predicting Hopkins.
I hate how everyone just says Another Round will win, I hope it won't.
I see no reason why it wouldn't win when it's been winning pretty much every foreign film award and is the only movie in the Best International Feature category to be nominated for Best Director. That kind of proves they like it the most.
Honestly, I just want Vanessa Kirby to win because I want to be shocked. This year is not the strongest year for the Oscars I guess...
I will forever believe you guys are putting too much weight on the BAFTAS. Those examples you used didn't help your cause. Rylance won in an unpredictable year. Stallone never had the type of support y'all believe he had. And Coleman won the Globe. She didnt exactly go into the Oscars empty handed. Boseman is winning. The backlash would be too great and when it comes to ×that× kind of backlash the Oscars do care about it. The Bafta is a great consolation prize for Hopkins
The animated short "Opera" is a masterpiece, a film you can watch multiple times and see a different narrative. Unfortunately, it will lose.
Agreed with you, the sentimental one tend to win.
Carey Mulligan had to win 😢
Maybe I’m naive, but these are individual votes, right? Many voters might consider all of the points made about who actually deserves it. Boseman will never get another chance, Hopkins has one, Hopkins was brilliant, Broseman was brilliant, etc. But I don’t think they send out a memo to the voters asking them to consider those reasons. They vote with their own reasons in mind. So you really can’t clump those reasons together. You just have to make your pick based on your own individual reason. You can’t assume the entire academy is collectively voting for a single reason. There is likely a consensus but the consensus would also be a coincidence.
Rumour is best actress is a tie?!?!?!
Rumor is Best Actor may be a tie too lol
Interesting!!!!
Still think the upset will be a Glenn Close win. Category is pretty divided. She’ll pick up votes
Why are you guys calling it oscar predictions and not BAFTA winner list🙄
What's the difference of Chadwick to Glenn if both win? Nothing, it's just because of sympathy... I'm leaning towards Hopkins because he deserves it even more!!
I'm waiting for the Eddies to solidify my prediction but I've locked in everything else. For Actor, I'm sticking with Boseman so I don't keep my hopes up, Actress will most likely be Mulligan, I'm saying Adapted goes to the Father, and everything I think will go as normal, most likely.
I want The Father to win Adapted so badly but I'm sticking with Nomadland.
i wish feeling through win live action short film. its just so beautiful, and its on youtube to, so very available. i cant find white eye anywhere apparently, so my top is:
1. feeling through
2. the letter room
3. the present
4. two distant strangers