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What are your thoughts on the length of time between the 4yr cycle low in 2002-2009-2016? Not arguing against being overdue for one now, but what is your take on those back to back 6-7 years between "4 year lows" in the past?
I have learnt more about economy (either actively or those thought provoking) with you than throughout my entire education. And I own a PhD. Thank you for the content, Camel! I really really really appreciate everything single content you made! Cheers
Good reasoning is irritating 😅. Our boy camel is that guy who everyone wants to ask to shut up, but secretly know is most likely right. It’s overheated.
I think a lot of the jobs in the private sector that are being lost are actually leaving the workforce and starting their own business - doesn't change the overall direction, but it is interesting... The data is there. We have been seeing record numbers ever since 2021. the Small Business Association, US Chamber of Commerce, the bureau of Labor statistics, and the US dept. of the Treasury all keep good records and they are all showing massive movement away from employment toward entrepreneurship.
@camel What are the odds wallstreet will rotate stocks to bitcoin through the ETF's when the stocks top similar to when Bitcoin tops and whales rotate to alts? They never had the chance to do so in prior cycles, but now 🤔
If not this cycle, then the next one they definitely will. The US stock market alone is worth 50 trillion and i think cryptocurrencies will take over stocks eventually. Stocks require too many qualifying initials, brokers, minimum deposits, minimum trade sizes. Crypto is a much more efficient method for exposure to risk assets from legitimate companies. With crypto, the sky is the limit and it just makes sense that it will be an improved version of the stock market. Imagine apple and microsoft releasing a crypto currency, as an example.
@camel_finance do you plan to do another non-TA update. Things you predicted about society; riots, uprisings, assassinations, tone of more wars etc have all played out over the last few months. The couple videos you’ve put out a while back were really interesting ✌️
Hi camel, When you mentioned a cycle low showing up late correlating with a sharper and more sudden drop, does that apply across all cycles or is only relevant to HTF? Cheers
hi thanks for the great content. would be interested to know ur thoughts on the btc cycle low after they top? do u see a possibility we would revisit 2022 btc low? thanks!
Real musical chair game will start next week and music will stop somewhere in early march. Dead cat bounces in april and september, then game over. You can pin the comment Camel. Jokes aside it’s just my speculation, no crystal balls involved :)
from my personal observations, every other cycle was m2 supply driven, but this time ETF single handedly pushed btc to ath. This cycle is unsustainable and they are going to sell soon. Thats my opinion, bc fed wasnt expanding its balance sheet, as i understand it, they want strong DXY to print into it. Controlled demolition, as u said
True. Every other cycle was retail driven as well. Institutions will either induce a short cycle or an extra long one. The market dynamics have changed that's for sure so previous patterns may be less helpful. Macro is always important of course.
brother, inversion+DXY should be such obvious signs!! Agree, i dont see enough bells being ringed !! maybe CT looks for exit liquidity and fud is not needed😂😂😂😂
Doesnt look like it to me - the decline was too orderly and on time. And if we accept that 22 low as an inversion it also forces many other counts to be shifted, throwing them out of symmetry which is why I maintain my count is correct and the other cycle traders that have shifted are suffering from euphoria
Camel, what are your thoughts on TLT? Would think that is a good instrument to capitalize on your base case of a potential DXY break out etc. Seems like it is bottoming out on the charts too
hey camel - ref the CBBI - ive noticed that if i strip away all the metrics apart from the MVRV-Z score, CBBI shows a score of 87 ? but if i look at the same MVRV-Z score metric anywhere else ie. bitcoin magazine pro - it looks like we are no where near a top - a score of 3 approx. is this just a scaling issue ? whats your take on this pls ?
I dont know to be honest - the CBBI for me is just a preferred indicator since it aggregates 9 on chain metrics, I use it like an index for on chain data
Conflict in the Middle East & N. Europe props up the dollar…. US foreign policy is designed for a constant war footing. Scares the people, profits the MIC shareholders. Last death throes perhaps… look west for short-term gain, look east for long term. BTC looks good long term provided the digital infrastructure remains intact. We can’t even buy Crypto at the moment through UK institutions (e.g. I can sell but not buy through PayPal UK in UK)… I had a modest crypto investment but I’ve cashed out for the moment, going to sit back & watch the show. 🎉
I’m very interested in the VIX trade of a lifetime you’ve mentioned many times. What’s the easiest way to trade this, since you can’t trade the VIX directly? VIX options? Or maybe S&P 500 options? And thanks for all these great daily videos! They’re helping me so much.
Looking at that comparison chart there was so much intervention and market manipulation I’m not so sure we can rely on a predictable cycle anymore. It’s a managed market. Look at how long and deep the inversion was! That’s not normal. My guess is if it starts to accelerate the fed will step in and buy bonds like crazy and fuel inflation like never before and we’ll get a blow off top. If they stop managing the market though it’ll fall HARD and rates will go straight up. I doubt they’ll let that happen bc the wealthy own most of the financial assets.
You’ve made a good case why MSTR won’t make a new high, do you feel the same logic applies to other crypto stocks? My WULF doesn’t seem like it’s going to get back to $9.50, its current ATH. Maybe I should close out my BITF amf MARA as well using the same justification.
It makes more sense for the MM to top in Q1 (making everyone euphoric) start a pre-bear market (buy the dip phase) until Q4 2025 when everyone starts to think its over (start shorting), pump it back making a lower high (making everyone buy back again thinking bull market resumed) and then start the bear market. This way MM's will get 3 chances to make $ trapping everyone thrice atleast. It will be brutal
@SeppeDeVos-md7jk I would like to hear is thoughts with all the tailwinds in action. I'm up overt 70% in a few months and I feel like (even though there could be dips) we are just getting started.
@briceking669 yeah possible, draw a trendline and watch for higher highs and higher lows, as long as you get weekly higher highs and higher lows there should be no reason to close the trade
1:40 This chart comparison is idiotic. It's comparing the bull market of everything in 2020 [that happened due to the stimulation cheques] to the current bull rally of BTC which has nothing to do with stimi cheques. It's like comparing an orange to an apple. They are both fruit and they both have vitamin C but it's not the same fruit.
MSTR getting added to the Nasdaq seems like a set up to blame crypto on the market crash next year 👀 found a triple leverage short etf of MSTR that feels rude not to buy 😂
I just don't understand why BTC would fly while stock market would fall. Don't you think that crypto is the first asset investors would ditch in case of a risk-off?
stock tops take a while to distribute there is always a few weeks between tops - sometimes there is weeks between US indexes topping I dont know why everyone assumes everything will top on the same day, but that's not how it works. We did see something like that in C19 due to panic, but that is not normally how tops come in
Yeah I think the same, the sentiment is that it’s going to be over in the near future and then that moment passes etc long and bearish leaves allot of room and ambiguity. Do chart analysts take into consideration political catalysts? Trump being in office is going to change allot for cryptocurrency’s globally and this is not somethings charts will show.
@303round crypto has followed global liquidity. It doesn't matter what happens in the space. It will top out and collapse when global liquidity gets soaked up. Simple.
I feel bad for last time. So i switched up my way of doing things. Im already safe although i still have some on the floor but its the guy that was really tryna get at me when i handled robin. I didnt like his greed so i pulled the dragon out and everyone knows how that went. I got a bird around him and hes saying hes gonna do it soon but idk. Yall just be safe ight
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Imagine my surprise being confronted with Dries bleeping Roelvink at 8 seconds into the video.
What a wild time to be alive.
Cycle top confirmed.
I'm early for once lol, thank you for all your insights Camel. You've become my go to TA channel ever since I discovered it 9 months ago.
you know we're getting close when you can actually understand what Camel is saying in the intro warning
What are your thoughts on the length of time between the 4yr cycle low in 2002-2009-2016? Not arguing against being overdue for one now, but what is your take on those back to back 6-7 years between "4 year lows" in the past?
I have learnt more about economy (either actively or those thought provoking) with you than throughout my entire education. And I own a PhD. Thank you for the content, Camel! I really really really appreciate everything single content you made! Cheers
Thank you 🤝
Thanks for the daily wrap up Camel.
My pleasure!
Good morning Mr. Camel. Have a wonderful 'no drama' Friday. Thank you for todays update. As I get older I have begun to realize that 'Less is More'.
Good morning!
Good reasoning is irritating 😅. Our boy camel is that guy who everyone wants to ask to shut up, but secretly know is most likely right. It’s overheated.
For the first chart 1:36, we should only expect half of the increase
Something around US$ 160k sounds just right
legend mate fist video ive seen of yours, thanks for the info
Thank you Camel have a great weekend!
Per your VIX trade are you playing VIXY or ?
Thanks Camel, invaluable analysis as usual
My pleasure!
Thanks again for your insight Camel 👑
Thanks Bro 😀👊
The reversion analysis is spot on….
I think a lot of the jobs in the private sector that are being lost are actually leaving the workforce and starting their own business - doesn't change the overall direction, but it is interesting... The data is there. We have been seeing record numbers ever since 2021. the Small Business Association, US Chamber of Commerce, the bureau of Labor statistics, and the US dept. of the Treasury all keep good records and they are all showing massive movement away from employment toward entrepreneurship.
Glad you touched on C19. Was wondering about that
FWIW the main indicator I use agrees with you.
BBWP and NSFW also agree with you.
@camel What are the odds wallstreet will rotate stocks to bitcoin through the ETF's when the stocks top similar to when Bitcoin tops and whales rotate to alts? They never had the chance to do so in prior cycles, but now 🤔
If not this cycle, then the next one they definitely will. The US stock market alone is worth 50 trillion and i think cryptocurrencies will take over stocks eventually. Stocks require too many qualifying initials, brokers, minimum deposits, minimum trade sizes. Crypto is a much more efficient method for exposure to risk assets from legitimate companies. With crypto, the sky is the limit and it just makes sense that it will be an improved version of the stock market. Imagine apple and microsoft releasing a crypto currency, as an example.
The odds are low.
@camel_finance do you plan to do another non-TA update. Things you predicted about society; riots, uprisings, assassinations, tone of more wars etc have all played out over the last few months. The couple videos you’ve put out a while back were really interesting ✌️
Hi camel,
When you mentioned a cycle low showing up late correlating with a sharper and more sudden drop, does that apply across all cycles or is only relevant to HTF?
Cheers
all cycles, but the larger time frame we go the more pronounced it usually is in my experience
hi thanks for the great content. would be interested to know ur thoughts on the btc cycle low after they top? do u see a possibility we would revisit 2022 btc low? thanks!
Camel, what about a price spiral theory? Wherever I apply this, it points to bull market ending in end of 2025. BTC, XRP, XLM, ADA, SOL, BCH, DOGE...
Thank you brother 🤝
🤝
Thanks Camel!
Camel, 10Y-03M just turned positive
Have a nice day off sir it's well deserved!
Great video!
Hi Camel, good TA, a newbie question, is it worth trading between Xmas Eve and New year Eve on stock markets or crypto. Thx
I dont usually, because volume is thin
@@camelfinance Thanks Camel , have a great evening
Real musical chair game will start next week and music will stop somewhere in early march. Dead cat bounces in april and september, then game over. You can pin the comment Camel.
Jokes aside it’s just my speculation, no crystal balls involved :)
from my personal observations, every other cycle was m2 supply driven, but this time ETF single handedly pushed btc to ath. This cycle is unsustainable and they are going to sell soon. Thats my opinion, bc fed wasnt expanding its balance sheet, as i understand it, they want strong DXY to print into it. Controlled demolition, as u said
True. Every other cycle was retail driven as well. Institutions will either induce a short cycle or an extra long one. The market dynamics have changed that's for sure so previous patterns may be less helpful. Macro is always important of course.
Cheers! 😀
Bro posts even on his days off! Thanks Camel Enjoy the time off!
From the title im assuming you will be talking about the drones and aliens over NJ right, right?
brother, inversion+DXY should be such obvious signs!! Agree, i dont see enough bells being ringed !! maybe CT looks for exit liquidity and fud is not needed😂😂😂😂
What possibility do you give to the idea that 2022 low was an inversion?
Doesnt look like it to me - the decline was too orderly and on time. And if we accept that 22 low as an inversion it also forces many other counts to be shifted, throwing them out of symmetry which is why I maintain my count is correct and the other cycle traders that have shifted are suffering from euphoria
Camel, what are your thoughts on TLT? Would think that is a good instrument to capitalize on your base case of a potential DXY break out etc. Seems like it is bottoming out on the charts too
so so glad I found you brev
🤝
Thanks Camel
Champion 👍🏻
How big of crash would be expected for the S&P? 20% or more?
Interestingly enough one of the gold ETFs I watch, has made a higher high. I wonder if it’s front running gold spot.
The scam comments 😢😢
Nice try scam bot!
hey camel - ref the CBBI - ive noticed that if i strip away all the metrics apart from the MVRV-Z score, CBBI shows a score of 87 ? but if i look at the same MVRV-Z score metric anywhere else ie. bitcoin magazine pro - it looks like we are no where near a top - a score of 3 approx. is this just a scaling issue ? whats your take on this pls ?
I dont know to be honest - the CBBI for me is just a preferred indicator since it aggregates 9 on chain metrics, I use it like an index for on chain data
thought there was no video with the alternate thumbnail!
Great video Camel Dude.
This ist the best and worst phase at the same time.
Conflict in the Middle East & N. Europe props up the dollar…. US foreign policy is designed for a constant war footing. Scares the people, profits the MIC shareholders. Last death throes perhaps… look west for short-term gain, look east for long term. BTC looks good long term provided the digital infrastructure remains intact. We can’t even buy Crypto at the moment through UK institutions (e.g. I can sell but not buy through PayPal UK in UK)… I had a modest crypto investment but I’ve cashed out for the moment, going to sit back & watch the show. 🎉
1:27 for the end of the year? 😮
thank you Camel 😁😁🥰
You're welcome 😊
I’m very interested in the VIX trade of a lifetime you’ve mentioned many times. What’s the easiest way to trade this, since you can’t trade the VIX directly? VIX options? Or maybe S&P 500 options? And thanks for all these great daily videos! They’re helping me so much.
I cannot make any recommendations as to specific instruments or brokers
Good afternoon
Sorry to say I joined you in the $VIX long which means it's for sure going to $8 ;(
Only bcuz you showed the chart. If we do get a blow off top like 2020 what are the chances of a double hump (top) in late 2025
MSTR to 600 or 230
so dump MSTU then?
Camel, I would like to join in on the VIX trade. What platform can I use to that please
There are alternative ways to get VIX exposure such as ETFs
He doesn't recommend and you need to do your own research and make a decision.
The camel SPEAKS.
Trump had a purple tie on at the NYSE yesterday :P
Confirmed: DJT watches Camel Finance while sipping a Diet Coke as his prep for the morning 🐪 🐫
@@DCFOG 💯
how many times do you have to say happy days in every video lmao
As many as he wants, it’s his video? 😂
I don’t believe a $200K BTC is likely; instead, I expect a sharp move to the upside, though not as extreme as some predict…
SPX at the beginning of its S-curve moment?
Looks like 10Y-3MY have just reverted, be interesting to watch this playout
For sure! rate cuts soon too - and a sea of overconfident investors lol - going to be a fun 2025
Looking at that comparison chart there was so much intervention and market manipulation I’m not so sure we can rely on a predictable cycle anymore. It’s a managed market. Look at how long and deep the inversion was! That’s not normal. My guess is if it starts to accelerate the fed will step in and buy bonds like crazy and fuel inflation like never before and we’ll get a blow off top. If they stop managing the market though it’ll fall HARD and rates will go straight up. I doubt they’ll let that happen bc the wealthy own most of the financial assets.
Wasn't there a 4 year GOLD low coming now? Is this the low you are calling weekly low? It should be much lower.
Legend has it GME might be a hedge against the impending stock market crash
10Y Bonds look like they're putting in a Kiss of Death ☠️.
MSTR added to Nasdaq 100 💯💯💯
Can’t see it being topped out considering this news
oh snap im early! 🌄
🎉
Friday the 13th...taboo day and date😂
Happy Friday to the Camel Crew
The dollar looks stronger than ever to me from the POV of global macro liquidity requirements.
You’ve made a good case why MSTR won’t make a new high, do you feel the same logic applies to other crypto stocks? My WULF doesn’t seem like it’s going to get back to $9.50, its current ATH. Maybe I should close out my BITF amf MARA as well using the same justification.
Charts are completely different I don’t think they’re comparable
Why are people ignoring your take Camel, why why why?
Are you saying that Camel is on the take?
@@sebfox2194 No, I mean his takeway, his analysis.
It makes more sense for the MM to top in Q1 (making everyone euphoric) start a pre-bear market (buy the dip phase) until Q4 2025 when everyone starts to think its over (start shorting), pump it back making a lower high (making everyone buy back again thinking bull market resumed) and then start the bear market. This way MM's will get 3 chances to make $ trapping everyone thrice atleast. It will be brutal
Anyone longing btc?
10000%
Have you ever done a Tesla video?
yes, but not recently
@SeppeDeVos-md7jk I would like to hear is thoughts with all the tailwinds in action. I'm up overt 70% in a few months and I feel like (even though there could be dips) we are just getting started.
@briceking669 yeah possible, draw a trendline and watch for higher highs and higher lows, as long as you get weekly higher highs and higher lows there should be no reason to close the trade
LETS GOOOO!
each time you say "cycle trader" in my head I hear "psycho trader"
What is the utility of fart coin anyway? Fart to earn? Proof of fart?
1:40 This chart comparison is idiotic. It's comparing the bull market of everything in 2020 [that happened due to the stimulation cheques] to the current bull rally of BTC which has nothing to do with stimi cheques. It's like comparing an orange to an apple. They are both fruit and they both have vitamin C but it's not the same fruit.
MSTR getting added to the Nasdaq seems like a set up to blame crypto on the market crash next year 👀 found a triple leverage short etf of MSTR that feels rude not to buy 😂
I just don't understand why BTC would fly while stock market would fall. Don't you think that crypto is the first asset investors would ditch in case of a risk-off?
stock tops take a while to distribute
there is always a few weeks between tops - sometimes there is weeks between US indexes topping
I dont know why everyone assumes everything will top on the same day, but that's not how it works. We did see something like that in C19 due to panic, but that is not normally how tops come in
@camelfinance Thanks, mate. You are not just camel but also goat :)
700m now bro. 😭
☀️🐪☀️
6 months later: ''the signs are there! it will collapse soon!''
Even if that would happen. Would he be wrong? As he says he is long and bearish. So he would not miss out the gains like all the twitter doomposters.
the newer guys just want to throw shade, they cant accept someone can be concerned whilst being long lol
Yeah I think the same, the sentiment is that it’s going to be over in the near future and then that moment passes etc long and bearish leaves allot of room and ambiguity. Do chart analysts take into consideration political catalysts? Trump being in office is going to change allot for cryptocurrency’s globally and this is not somethings charts will show.
@303round crypto has followed global liquidity. It doesn't matter what happens in the space. It will top out and collapse when global liquidity gets soaked up. Simple.
@@buck_uphow is global liquidity gauged?
Camel wen new song? 🙏🙏
Write him a new one
I feel bad for last time. So i switched up my way of doing things. Im already safe although i still have some on the floor but its the guy that was really tryna get at me when i handled robin. I didnt like his greed so i pulled the dragon out and everyone knows how that went. I got a bird around him and hes saying hes gonna do it soon but idk. Yall just be safe ight
first
🐫📸🎥
We are basically inverting at the moment and dxy continues to ramp up. This looks awful
Edit: *uninverting*
risk happens fast - I have been trying to tell people this for months, now we are about to find out it would seem
🐫🧿🧿🧿
Excellent work as always, Camel!🫡🙌
Thanks Camel and have a great weekend!
Thanks, you too!