This Time is NOT Different.

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  • Опубліковано 12 гру 2024

КОМЕНТАРІ • 144

  • @bravosresearch
    @bravosresearch  День тому +1

    Subscribe to our FREE Macro Report 📈👉 newsletter.bravosresearch.com

  • @robfried23
    @robfried23 День тому +123

    These tables need to be logarithmic, otherwise they can be quite misleading

  • @Cowface
    @Cowface День тому +131

    I don’t know, I’ve been watching the stock market since 2008, and I’m starting to genuinely believe it can’t go down. Any time stocks go down, they’re “on sale” kicking off a buying spree and new highs. Even investor pessimism is seen as bullish, as that tends to coincide with market lows. If all else fails, the government and/or fed will all but fall on a sword to keep it propped up. That’s what we saw in 2020

  • @sick_motion8973
    @sick_motion8973 День тому +148

    I agree, the stock market is overheating, 5% yield is really satisfying and x100 safer.

    • @callmeehnova
      @callmeehnova День тому +10

      Where can i park my money with 5% yeild?

    • @cropduster123
      @cropduster123 День тому +4

      Ally bank. 4.5% interest rate money market savings account. Doesn't get safer or easier than that.

    • @DaManDaMythDaLegend
      @DaManDaMythDaLegend День тому +4

      CD rates have been close to 5%

    • @Максим-л1о5н
      @Максим-л1о5н День тому +1

      Bonds

    • @wukape
      @wukape День тому +8

      @@Максим-л1о5н When youre gonna have stagflation bonds arent the best option... xD

  • @viriato.t8
    @viriato.t8 День тому +41

    The market will probably crash unexpectedly. Try to time the market and you'll always fail. Try to reduce your losses, minimizing risk, don't think you can or should reduce the risk to zero.

  • @handlemonium
    @handlemonium День тому +61

    A recession *IS NOT* going to be declared by next month. Maybe when the current AI & crypto bubble pops in Q4 2025 (and as the US economic pressure cooker implodes) but definitely not now.

  • @thedarkslide
    @thedarkslide День тому +35

    0:43 Ah. Finally we know what caused the global outbreak of the COVID19 virus: people hoarding cash caused it! Thanks for clarifying that!

  • @adammarette2491
    @adammarette2491 День тому +60

    This cash has been on the sidelines for what 3 years now? Maybe it won't move off the sidelines...

  • @tannerjones1230
    @tannerjones1230 День тому +21

    The biggest counterpoint to the employment numbers is that the vehicle of gig jobs are inflating job growth values. I think I'm going to start investigating some data. If my hypothesis is correct you should start seeing median salary beginning to slide.

  • @jtfike
    @jtfike День тому +27

    I’m not sure I agree with this video. The market (assets) rises when us prints money. Due to the us debt, they are printing money so it just keeps going up. The amount people are saving for cash is irrelevant. When the us stops printing money, the spike will stop. Interest rates will remain where they are while money is printed. They will lower when money printing stops.

  • @lodersracing
    @lodersracing День тому +15

    It's crazy how it keeps going up in the long term after crashes.

  • @Forpublic552
    @Forpublic552 День тому +31

    Always interesting analysis. Minor point. Short term T-bills are all sub 4.5%. Who’s getting 5% on MMF?

  • @svenas22
    @svenas22 День тому +12

    This time is different!.... 1. This is an everything crash. 2. This will be an even bigger crash than the last ones. 3. Retail is in even deeper. So a lot of people will go personally bankrupt. 4. This one I just heard but this time it is not even about tricking the retail traders. But it's about crushing / outsmarting the other financial institutions.

  • @sltho
    @sltho День тому +25

    Isn’t spy ytd 23%? Which s and p 500 is he talking abt at arnd 1:30 mark

  • @Finanzen-y9m
    @Finanzen-y9m День тому +15

    Sry but Bonds aren't cash. Countries can go bankrupt. Even bank balances are not cash because they are only a claim against the bank. And if the bank goes bankrupt, the claim is gone.
    Only pysical cash is cash.

  • @russellobrien6441
    @russellobrien6441 День тому +5

    I love this. States opinions clearly, gives the data, gives alternate views. Great way to present the analysis.

  • @veejaymali4871
    @veejaymali4871 День тому +7

    There has been structural changes in U.S economy which distort the jobless claims figure. A lot of people in this gig economy are not able to claim unemployment benefits anymore. But on the other hand a lot of low paying jobs have been created in this gig economy. Just look at you for instance. Online social media content creators is a big new industry.

  • @Meemeeseecoo
    @Meemeeseecoo День тому +27

    Ready for the VIX to rocket.

  • @genericusername5909
    @genericusername5909 День тому +10

    Make the same prediction enough times and eventually you’ll be right

  • @itsMohak
    @itsMohak День тому +5

    Always very useful

  • @adamarket
    @adamarket День тому +6

    This may be my confirmation bias speaking, but I've been steadily moving most of my portfolio into neurtral money markets and taking advantage of a decent interest rate. I'm growing my investments in inverse funds like SPXS, SDOW and SQQQ ready for the overheated market to drop while maintaining some positive ETFs which I'm continuing to take profits from.

  • @tehpanda64
    @tehpanda64 День тому +7

    It would be actually ridiculous if rates remain this high while assets keep going up. We already have a decade of insanely impressive market returns piled up with very poor fundamental backing.
    I am afraid that if things keep going up like this for a few more years, the resulting correction will be impossible to solve.

  • @TimezUp23
    @TimezUp23 День тому +3

    The purpose of saving is to have cash for future investment. If people don’t save, there is no investment cash. However, if the federal reserve is printing cash and artificially manipulating interest rates, savings get crushed by inflation forcing people to buy or invest or see their cash lose purchasing power.

  • @wi11ialvl
    @wi11ialvl День тому +27

    I'm going to buy some gold

    • @cropduster123
      @cropduster123 День тому +1

      I'd wait. It's currently floating at all times highs.

    • @robertthomas5906
      @robertthomas5906 День тому +1

      You might want to buy some ripple.

    • @Null-o7j
      @Null-o7j День тому

      Buy plat, rhodium, rhenium, etc.

  • @TuffEnuffIII
    @TuffEnuffIII День тому +39

    Inflation is MUCH higher than the government claims

  • @Sight-Beyond-Sight
    @Sight-Beyond-Sight День тому +4

    I think the inevitable is just being delayed. I am not investing anything other than keeping my current ounces stacked. I will pay down my mortgage ($200k on a $650k house @ 4%) and resist accruing any new debts. If rates go down, I will refinance and maybe look to buy a second property. Otherwise, "Wisely and slow; they stumble that run fast..."

  • @LaHaine-l5q
    @LaHaine-l5q День тому +1

    After reading book titled The Elite Society's Money Manifestation, I finally understood why so many people struggle with money. It reveals stuff that most people don’t even know about how money really works. Has anyone else read it?

  • @mikewazowski489
    @mikewazowski489 День тому +3

    Dec 6 Initial Jobless Claims at 242k, it's getting close to that 260k level. What's the probability that it hits it in January/February after the Santa Clause rally?

  • @UnderCover_300blk
    @UnderCover_300blk День тому +9

    If we go into a recession, do you have any recommendations on where and how to invest for someone who never has before?

    • @dawoodwaris
      @dawoodwaris День тому +24

      Buy and hold bonds until the stock market comes to the bottom. Then sell it and buy undervalued good businesses.

    • @VGHSyntheticOrchestra
      @VGHSyntheticOrchestra День тому +2

      Buying CDs and treasury bonds, or simply putting money in a HYSA are good places to start.

    • @davedeboy5726
      @davedeboy5726 День тому

      gold! Stay away from any crypto whatsoever. Trump pumps out foreigners-people like Musk go too.

    • @adamarket
      @adamarket День тому

      If you're on Robin Hood, look at BIL, SGOV and USFR. All of these funds basically stay flattish but return a decent 4.5% interest rate currently. Look at how the funds have performed over the last year or more. If you're on Etrade or similar, take a look at VUSXX etc. which basically pay out monthly at the 4.25% range.

  • @jossanin
    @jossanin День тому +1

    Great analysis as usual. My only request would be to include in the potential influence of the upcoming policy changes with the new government.

  • @mattsnow9414
    @mattsnow9414 День тому

    i see your win rate, but what's your batting avg? i.e. percentage value of each win/ percentage value of each loss.

  • @heerp.4023
    @heerp.4023 День тому +12

    Forever game of trades. What does bravos research even mean?!

  • @brycelupo7120
    @brycelupo7120 День тому +1

    What about the cooperate tax cuts also tax cuts on individuals? Less regulations as well…..

  • @sackville_bagginsess
    @sackville_bagginsess День тому +1

    How much adjustment or consideration should we take for the large sums of money printed for Covid relief? That money has surely accumulated somewhere so shouldn’t the chart lines compensate that?

  • @marcospatrick7431
    @marcospatrick7431 День тому +2

    Is it smarter to buy btc or drugs

  • @trvegiibz9154
    @trvegiibz9154 День тому +2

    Tell me if i'm wrong but the us jobless claims went higher yesterday right?

  • @benjaminthomasson
    @benjaminthomasson День тому +1

    Real positive interest destroys money and reduces the money supply.

  • @TJsnail
    @TJsnail День тому +2

    if you did nothing and just left your money in the market you'd still be up. doing something is for losers

  • @porcine83
    @porcine83 День тому +1

    I agree with your points, but Keynes was a doofus.

  • @auwz66
    @auwz66 День тому +1

    Earnings yield on the S&P has nothing to do with your ROI. I have no idea why you are even trying to compare.

  • @mdimascio
    @mdimascio День тому

    Are the Fidelity FDRXX and SPAXX examples of the Money Markets you speak about?
    Well explained, thank you for your insights.

  • @Roolenstein
    @Roolenstein День тому

    Ideally 'savings' are supposed to be pooled and invested by responsible banks into the productive economy, which is better long-term than simply spending it on consumer trinkets.

  • @nosdalgic
    @nosdalgic День тому +1

    Nobody can afford to be jobless. Initial jobless claims is only a good metric when the economy is running well.

  • @Aspirational123
    @Aspirational123 День тому +1

    Where value investors congregate

  • @hobbybike51
    @hobbybike51 День тому +1

    @7:51 There's something ironic in unknowingly showing inattention to detail to show inattention to detail. Just saying dudes.

  • @ketanpatel2401
    @ketanpatel2401 День тому +1

    Less growth and higher inflation....

  • @Unknown-go8zy
    @Unknown-go8zy День тому

    As always. One of the best and most informative Channel ever !!!

  • @cvrart
    @cvrart День тому

    6:09 - A key difference from past periods where rates could stay higher for longer without triggering a recession is the amount of public and private debt. At current levels, the cost of servicing that debt - and in some cases rolling it over from lower past rates to higher current rates - would eventually suffocate economic activity. So, it looks to me like a recession is pretty much baked in, and the government delayed it until after the election for political reasons by amassing huge government debt in order to spend like crazy and juice the economy when the rest of the fundamentals have already deteriorated.

  • @cryptosabr
    @cryptosabr День тому +1

    Great time for Friedman to be wrong .

  • @lialialaia2756
    @lialialaia2756 День тому +1

    People save up because they can't afford...try affording a home with monthly payments of $3-5k per month....not easy

  • @danialwiren2403
    @danialwiren2403 День тому

    All these issues stem from an economy grappling with uncertainties, problems, foreclosures, global fluctuations, and the aftermath of the pandemic, leading to instability. Rising inflation, sluggish growth, and trade disruptions demand urgent attention from all sectors to restore stability and stimulate growth.

  • @ryder999
    @ryder999 День тому +1

    Buffet also says to buy low so I hope prices go down for assets it give me the chance to lower my cost average and buy more only reason buffet isn’t doing it is he’s in his 90s he even know his time left is short he might not be alive when prices go back up sadly

  • @AngelVasquez-w8y
    @AngelVasquez-w8y День тому +1

    This time is not diffe(R)ent

  • @uzeryy
    @uzeryy День тому +2

    stacking up my NFTs while there cheap

  • @nikslau
    @nikslau День тому +3

    Jobless claims report today shows +17k (242k) and 24k over expected. re: last week's vid.
    that together with everyone liquidating screams recession.

  • @dizzyhaha640
    @dizzyhaha640 День тому

    “Real interest rate“ compared to “real inflation“. What a joke if you’re actually using the government CPI.

  • @jacquesbroquard
    @jacquesbroquard День тому +4

    Came for the late capitalist take on things, stayed for the motion graphics.

  • @emiledurocher2420
    @emiledurocher2420 День тому

    You've got the right idea, expand your timeline a bit though ;)

  • @DimpzNYC
    @DimpzNYC День тому

    This time is different

  • @mchammer5026
    @mchammer5026 День тому +1

    lol yeah the money market saw the pandemic coming, makes total sense

  • @gezgez2
    @gezgez2 День тому

    sooo buy gold as my parents did back in the day

  • @s3nd3r
    @s3nd3r День тому

    10 year 3 month yield is so close to un inversion. Market will crash 1- 3 months after this happens

  • @peterangelou8961
    @peterangelou8961 День тому

    Initial claims jumped to 242k today, above the 221k forecasted, so they are rising, not going down.

  • @janicematthews4719
    @janicematthews4719 День тому

    Who owns and buying all the stocks then pushing it up?

  • @dansaunders6761
    @dansaunders6761 День тому

    In a phrase, you are describing the velocity of money.

  • @abram2535
    @abram2535 День тому +1

    All those jobs are Federal Jobs.

  • @jonesmatthew7511
    @jonesmatthew7511 День тому

    Is looking at initial jobless claims relevant/accurate anymore? Does it really represent the amount of unemployment/underemployment/inability to pay for good/services due to inflation and wages not keeping up?

  • @mattmadden3716
    @mattmadden3716 День тому

    Everyone I speak with is seeing economic slowdown. We’re in recession for sure, whether admitted or not.

  • @achilles4242
    @achilles4242 День тому

    What is the ratio of money held in short term instruments like money market instruments vis a vis long-dated securities like 10-year treasuries? And what has been the delta in that ratio since Covid? I think this would be a good indicator of the general temperament of those who hold cash.
    Would also be interesting to know what the makeup is of that $6.5 Tn. In other words, have a lot of commercial real estate investors moved to cash in the short term in anticipation of the Fed cutting rates? What else might there be?
    Good video. I am not convinced a recession is coming so soon but you never know. I think one sure thing is that the progress and adoption of AI will have something to do with it. No doubt this positive productivity shock will be good for growth in the long run; but, if the rate of progress and adoption proceeds too slow relative to the expectations the market has, then we will see a correction, or tepid growth, at least. What do you think?

  • @SHDW-sy7oz
    @SHDW-sy7oz День тому +2

    dca btc ftw

  • @douglaslaw3752
    @douglaslaw3752 День тому

    Stop using money market funds and start justifying your point using Savings rates when you specifically say Savings Rates. Money Market funds are not saving rates.

  • @uzeryy
    @uzeryy День тому +1

    when the crypto market slows down NFTs are gonna explode

  • @joecordoni3434
    @joecordoni3434 День тому

    THE market is going up on a reverse crash
    We're in a bull market up til mid terms..... then we crash

  • @econo-yw5of
    @econo-yw5of День тому

    bitcoin target is 2B. and then 5B

  • @skinnex3236
    @skinnex3236 День тому

    Nono its different, this time it WILL fall.

  • @Rookies103
    @Rookies103 День тому

    Nice information

  • @wexwexexort
    @wexwexexort День тому

    I think it's still bull market

  • @brycelupo7120
    @brycelupo7120 День тому +2

    Also we would have not had a recession in 2020 if it wasn’t man made from the pandemic…..

  • @neerajkumar.455
    @neerajkumar.455 День тому +1

    Thanks for the continuous update! I am super excited about how my stock investment is going so far, making over 8k weekly is an amazing gain

  • @UnderCover_300blk
    @UnderCover_300blk День тому +7

    Not first.

  • @JEEDUHCHRI
    @JEEDUHCHRI День тому

    Every comment on this video is robots shilling some financial service.

  • @povarful
    @povarful День тому +1

    Inflating 10-20% , money market 5% interest 😂! Nobody knows how to count here! Good luck saving!

  • @robertalkemade989
    @robertalkemade989 День тому

    orange Jesus

  • @joesoap8125
    @joesoap8125 День тому

    This time it’s not different. Agreed. But. Crypto’s and AI are disrupting in a very big way

  • @JosanRj
    @JosanRj День тому

    Binance infinity ETH bug right now
    I just made a video to show that,

  • @andrewcarpenter687
    @andrewcarpenter687 День тому +2

    The F E D is G O D...😅😅

  • @RigmanZ11
    @RigmanZ11 День тому +1

    Or, hear me out - Don't sell just wait to buy at the low and you won't lose anything lmao

  • @davedeboy5726
    @davedeboy5726 День тому +15

    YUP... Trump has started a great recession/depression. Market will go down at least 33%.

    • @SomeUserNameBlahBlah
      @SomeUserNameBlahBlah День тому

      Doesn't matter who is in office, the recession was coming anyway.

    • @bas3q
      @bas3q День тому +13

      A recession has been overdue for a long time now, business cycles are inevitable.
      Personally I can't wait...I missed out buying in at the market bottom during COVID, I'm not going to make the same mistake twice.

    • @Wippzi
      @Wippzi День тому +32

      this youtuber has been calling a recession for over 2 years now. and trump isnt even in office wtf are u talking about

    • @robertthomas5906
      @robertthomas5906 День тому

      It's not Trump. It's the past 4 years, and we all know it. Biden in 2020 couldn't print money fast enough. FRED reported on it. That's inflation. Then Biden couldn't give money away fast enough. He's much worse than any other president.

    • @HH-bc2nz
      @HH-bc2nz День тому +2

      Doesn't matter.
      S&P500 increased 30% just in the past year, and 91% in the past 5 years.
      30% drop will be just reset back to last year.

  • @domagojv193
    @domagojv193 День тому +88

    Buy Bitcoin!

    • @daniellarusso8012
      @daniellarusso8012 День тому +75

      Hell no, lol.

    • @mgem1611
      @mgem1611 День тому +53

      Bitcoin follows the market

    • @LalaWatches
      @LalaWatches День тому +11

      Why are you selling?? 😂

    • @JEP-Tech
      @JEP-Tech День тому +12

      In long run, never a bad time to buy Bitcoin, dollar cost averaging is never a bad strategy with a strong asset, but a market bust is coming and there will be a major course correction. Bitcoin will crash as the stock market crashes. Make sure to have some cash on hand to buy as the prices fall and for emergency situations.

    • @flsendzz
      @flsendzz День тому +27

      Once everyones says "buy bitcoin", like now and not unlike every other bitcoin high, that is when you sell :)

  • @midwestcannabis
    @midwestcannabis День тому +1

    81st like🥳🥳

  • @jcancino630
    @jcancino630 День тому

    Mmmm

  • @X-perimentos
    @X-perimentos День тому

  • @ritzenhauf
    @ritzenhauf День тому

    Jobless claims are lying somehow. Look deeper!

  • @yj677
    @yj677 День тому

    u smart.

  • @amphisbaena420
    @amphisbaena420 День тому +1

    First

  • @anshraj69241
    @anshraj69241 День тому +2

    Thank you for the content!! All we need is the right advice on how to invest in crypto and the bitcoin halving is a life changing opportunity

  • @Sparemesomecoins
    @Sparemesomecoins День тому +1

    buffet keep cash because he is a value investor. His mind doesn’t match with the current market situation. His way of investing is traditional. He keeps cash not because market will crash. Because he think it’s not worth it to buy. 😂😂😂😂

  • @pipster1891
    @pipster1891 День тому

    So according to the graph, the smart money exited _below_ what the market later crashed to. Is that smart?