Become a Camel Crew member here: ua-cam.com/channels/r_DLep7UQ0B_IFhvTORu8A.htmljoin Download the highly requested 'An Introduction to Trading Cycles' PDF here: camel-finance.creator-spring.com/listing/an-introduction-to-trading-cyc?product=1227 Support my work here: www.buymeacoffee.com/camelfinance Send me something: Camel PO BOX 429 Barnstaple EX32 2LD England UK 10% off Tangem Cold wallet here: tangem.com/ (use code R5TH4Z at checkout) Get a Trezor Cold wallet here: affil.trezor.io/aff_c?offer_id=241&aff_id=31615 Buy PHYSICAL Gold & Silver here: www.tavexbullion.com Use code 'CAMELCREW22' to claim a discount on the following products: Gold: Seymour Unicorn 1oz Seymour Unicorn 1/4oz Beowulf 1oz Tavex 1g Bar 1oz Gold Britannia 1/2oz Gold Britannia 1/4oz Gold Britannia 1/10oz Britannia Silver: Britannia Liberty Silver Coin British Royal Arms Coins Australian Kookaburra Listen to the Camel finance theme tune here: suno.com/song/feb08cd8-dabe-4652-80e5-8d0cbca4cfee
Whether a viewer agrees or disagrees with your thesis NO ONE can deny the amount of effort/data/time put in making these videos And I appreciate it Camel Might not be a member but my view count tells it all ❤
When I watch your videos everyday it feels like I'm receiving a quality service. When I was paying for education at university it felt like I was the product. Thanks ❤
unlike 90% of investors and traders I like people who analyse the market using real facts and data rather than emotions and following the herds and repeating what 90% of people are saying "2025 is going to be the bull market of bull markets" "Trump is going to pump the market" " we're gnna have a super cycle this time is different" and if you tell them the data indicate otherwise, they call you a clown and get mad and emotional. Camel, you're a badass cuz you're keeping it real and showing real data...salute
All Government charts or metrics will be far behind by design... Insider information is the only way to be with the curve or before it. We are far after which is too late. Following senator trades is far more likely the easiest play
Just to get it clear in my mind. For BTC we are expecting the weekly cycle low around the March 5th window. And we are expecting a left translated daily cycle for this period of Jan-March. For it to be left translated the BTC local top would need to arrive before the end of Jan. are we therefore saying that potentially this local top could be the actual top and therefore we could be seeing the BTC actual top by the end of this month?
Would you say that if I'm holding btc it might be smart to sell in a couple weeks if it continues rising? And how long is the local top? What does that mean? Thanks
I would watch BTC dominance, the pi cycle indicator, the mvrv-z score, reserve risk and the terminal price before I started selling. That just me, but we aren't close to any of the major indicators yet. We haven't even seen an alt season yet, I mean eth hasn't even passed it's previous high yet.
About the comparison to 70s inflation, if we *are* living in a simulation, then all that means for the possibility of a repeated pattern is that we can expect another seismic event that triggers that next inflation bubble. Stuff has been brewing for a long time, so I dont rule that out. However, that also assumes that there aren't any bigger cycle patterns in play to affect it. And there are always patterns in play, whether you see them or not. They are not mystical. They are simply how the universe works. And guess what you are part of, little human? That's right, the universe.
Very interesting about the employment data. It used to be the reverse (a few months ago), where the payroll data showed weaker employment than the surveys. Lots of people, myself included, thought it was being manipulated. Then I heard a much more plausible theory: The household survey is just a survey whereas the payroll data is quarterly or monthly or something like that, reports. So basically the SURVEY kept getting revised DOWN based on the REPORTS from actual IRS Payroll data. Well, Goldman came out with this analysis and basically attributed it to people working that aren't showing up on payroll reports - basically illegal immigrants. So they'd call up these households, they'd say, "yes, we're employed," and then when the IRS data came out, it showed something very different. Interesting to see that trend now reverse...
the last 6 years employment numbers are stated that native employment is down and foreign hirees are up alot...this has been going on since 2017... in other words americans aren't being hired, illegals are
Learn every time you put these guides. I got nothing short of being shot down in flames when I mentioned to a group of drinking buddies a recession is imminent and the top is closer than they think. It was a lonely beer from then on 😂
There’s a good lecture by John Mearsheimer on YT called ‘why leaders lie’ (title of a book he wrote) and my understanding of his view is that they don’t directly lie, but instead either ‘spin’, ‘exaggerate’ or ‘omit’ the truth or the combination of these, but directly lying is too dangerous as they can be found to have been blatantly lying 🤥 which risks their job and entire career
Once could be error, but twice is incompetence, yet more is a pattern of malfeasance surely? Isn't deliberately misleading repeatedly, a crime in public office?
Welcome back Camel! Interesting news: Germanys Economic Power is at an all time low suggesting upswing soon or record breaking lows sending this country to levels never heard of for decades. Same for France, EZB is bailing them out. So EU is sturggeling, China is massively financially stressed. US seems to hold okayish, suggesting that it favours the USA to be slow with the hikes! As all the other nations rely on these hikes, US is literally cooking them currently to regain a strategic advantage economically, but only for as long as the US can keep itself afloat. Makes so much sense.
One thing that also adds conviction that we are in trouble is the fact that small and mid cap earnings are really expected to accelerate in to 2025, but where is that growth going to come from? We have already had +3% gdp "growth" why havent the small and mid caps grown earnings already if everything is so well? Do we need 6% gdp growth for small and mid caps to thrive or what? This bullmarket is one of the unhealthiest bullmarkets we have had, driven by government spending and lots of liquidity bumping up the valuation multiples. Im not saying it cant continue but everything comes to an end at some point and when times get easy, you know the end is near. Keep an eye on gold, if it continues to go down it means we are probably running out of liquidity. Great video!
From my few years studies, big IF we like to see BTC on 150k lvl price, we need bigger correction to 70-75k lvls first and still if economic data will be "positive" at that time. I did start shorting BTC from 107k lvl and still holding my position until 70-75 k lvls. 👍
So Powell might need to revisit his previous hawkish statements about fewer rate cuts in 2025. And if that happens, the everything bubble may continue to inflate.
I think you may be right now that sentiment has started shifting from "most called recession" to "up only forever". One more big "up" to create exit liquidity at the top, then a big sell-off. That would harm the most participants I think.
Hey Camel, when you say risk being sold into the dollar, how does a bid on the dollar cause deflation? You are talking about a strong dollar in terms of ex. rate? ie. Cheaper imports?
Also of concern is the uninversion of the yield curve and it's track record for calling recessions. I know some people will say, yea but it hasn't been right every time, this time is different too. Well when you run the probability on historical data it has still been right over 90% of the time so that is not a mathematical probability bet anyone should be willing to take, you have better odds going to the casino with your life savings and dumping money on black at the roulette table.
Great video bro. Feels like 3-9 months for the blow off top to me but we shall see. I took a $400 strike MSTR call option to expire in April targeting $600-700 with the assumption of BTC running to $140k in Q1. Then I’ll be looking for puts 1-2 months out if the technicals setup for a pull back.
I’m convinced that we are on the precipice of economic chaos but due to recency bias, most retail will again be on the wrong side bc the crash will be a melt up this time! The answer is to hold assets, which is the opposite of what you’d want to do in a deflationary crash.
Personally I always look for at least a couple bearish or realistic UA-camrs just so I don't miss the talk and so I can play the market in a safer way. Anyone who's been in crypto now for three cycles like myself prefers more level-headed UA-camrs than wild crazy always bullish garbage. Thank you for creating quality content
Yeah that's why this stock market phase is called euphoria. Smaller and smaller numbers of People euphorically bid higher and higher prices for assets until they run out of suckers to sell tulip bulbs or 40 PE shares of apple to, they run out of bank credit, and a deflationary bust bankrupts them all and the banks who foolishly supplied credit.
I agree we're headed for a correction, but why do you say (9:15) "the most recent round of rate hikes..."? They dropped the rate 0.75 in the past 3 months.
One thing to consider - Powell. He has come out and stated he would not allow inflation to occur (given how much deflation would hurt Big Gov). Keep putting not allow deflation but YT keeps puting inflation - Powell wont allow deflation.
I think crypto looks extremely bullish short term, I’ve got some very serious longs open. But I’m prepared to get out at the first sign of bearishness. I see exactly what camel sees I think, but not for the same reasons
I think people are figuring out altcoins are a scam. Huge whales frontran these coins so much in the bear, that all theyre doing now is selling. But if we do get an alt season, its coming VERY soon. Like now. 1st or 2nd week of Jan. Thats historically when it starts. So we will know shortly.
Camel, sorry for pointing out the same for the last months but you say the indices are working on a second angle violation... and BTC is going to set a 4th angle??? I think it's obvious that these two predictions can't happen at the same time, UNLESS Trump signs his first day the national strategic reserve, and starts a race to buy BTC with other countries and companies. However, that seems unlikely and to good to be true...
I think bitcoin will top in the first quarter and probably drop 50% until mid year and then have a double top the end of third quarter or early 4th quarter of 2025 then the real bear market begins 🤔
@ no look at the bitcoin chart and look at all prior cycles and come up with a conclusion, in prior cycles bitcoin tops near 300 days after halving and cool down, then has another top around 500 days after halving
Become a Camel Crew member here:
ua-cam.com/channels/r_DLep7UQ0B_IFhvTORu8A.htmljoin
Download the highly requested 'An Introduction to Trading Cycles' PDF here:
camel-finance.creator-spring.com/listing/an-introduction-to-trading-cyc?product=1227
Support my work here:
www.buymeacoffee.com/camelfinance
Send me something:
Camel
PO BOX 429
Barnstaple
EX32 2LD
England
UK
10% off Tangem Cold wallet here:
tangem.com/ (use code R5TH4Z at checkout)
Get a Trezor Cold wallet here:
affil.trezor.io/aff_c?offer_id=241&aff_id=31615
Buy PHYSICAL Gold & Silver here: www.tavexbullion.com
Use code 'CAMELCREW22' to claim a discount
on the following products:
Gold:
Seymour Unicorn 1oz
Seymour Unicorn 1/4oz
Beowulf 1oz
Tavex 1g Bar
1oz Gold Britannia
1/2oz Gold Britannia
1/4oz Gold Britannia
1/10oz Britannia
Silver:
Britannia Liberty Silver Coin
British Royal Arms Coins
Australian Kookaburra
Listen to the Camel finance theme tune here:
suno.com/song/feb08cd8-dabe-4652-80e5-8d0cbca4cfee
question, if i become a member, will i be able to track your positions in real time?
There is a weird phase shift post covid , of SPX or NASDAQ with (10y - 2y) yield curve .. after 2020 nadsaq and yield_diff_curve are correlated
Whether a viewer agrees or disagrees with your thesis NO ONE can deny the amount of effort/data/time put in making these videos
And I appreciate it Camel
Might not be a member but my view count tells it all ❤
The government lied? Noooooooo how could they do that 😂😂😂
It's impossible.
Epic knowledge 🎉
How?!? Coz they can..
😅
First time I've heard of it
When I watch your videos everyday it feels like I'm receiving a quality service.
When I was paying for education at university it felt like I was the product.
Thanks ❤
thanks - I can relate to that I felt the same when I went to uni
Now that is a quality compliment. Well done guys.
I learned a ton in high school, and next to nothing in college.
you were the product!! they've brainwashed everyone with "education." cheers.
unlike 90% of investors and traders I like people who analyse the market using real facts and data rather than emotions and following the herds and repeating what 90% of people are saying "2025 is going to be the bull market of bull markets" "Trump is going to pump the market" " we're gnna have a super cycle this time is different" and if you tell them the data indicate otherwise, they call you a clown and get mad and emotional. Camel, you're a badass cuz you're keeping it real and showing real data...salute
100%. Already lost a couple of "friends" due to it... Their loss.
Have not seen the M2 chart of late.
@@HansiSchmidti And that is the only variable needed, right? Not finding confluences amongst many different factors... smfh.
@@poorman250 do mean is a recession is coming a few weeks?
Thank you Camel. The weekend is not complete without a deep dive.
All Government charts or metrics will be far behind by design... Insider information is the only way to be with the curve or before it. We are far after which is too late. Following senator trades is far more likely the easiest play
@@andrewvader1955 so how to trade that ?
Thanks!
Thank you
You really are the best in the business. Extremely logical
Fantastic and crucial analysis. These deep dives are extremely insightful and I much appreciate you sharing them!
So lucky to have camel on our side, thanks champ for the hard work and education!
This is excellent analysis. First time I subscribed to a new channel in quite a while it is well-deserved.
Just to get it clear in my mind. For BTC we are expecting the weekly cycle low around the March 5th window. And we are expecting a left translated daily cycle for this period of Jan-March. For it to be left translated the BTC local top would need to arrive before the end of Jan. are we therefore saying that potentially this local top could be the actual top and therefore we could be seeing the BTC actual top by the end of this month?
yes that's correct but it's also possible the weekly cycle low over extends by another daily cycle - we just cant say at this stage
Would you say that if I'm holding btc it might be smart to sell in a couple weeks if it continues rising? And how long is the local top? What does that mean? Thanks
Can the weekly cycle low violate the third angle? Or does the violation of that angle being the top indicator apply regardless?
Top by q3 of 2025 if we go by post halving cycles
I would watch BTC dominance, the pi cycle indicator, the mvrv-z score, reserve risk and the terminal price before I started selling. That just me, but we aren't close to any of the major indicators yet. We haven't even seen an alt season yet, I mean eth hasn't even passed it's previous high yet.
About the comparison to 70s inflation, if we *are* living in a simulation, then all that means for the possibility of a repeated pattern is that we can expect another seismic event that triggers that next inflation bubble. Stuff has been brewing for a long time, so I dont rule that out.
However, that also assumes that there aren't any bigger cycle patterns in play to affect it. And there are always patterns in play, whether you see them or not. They are not mystical. They are simply how the universe works. And guess what you are part of, little human? That's right, the universe.
No deflation, FED has money printer, and can easily drop rates to 0 if needed.
Could be too late for rate cuts, but yes they can print. Hard to believe they won't print
Why would they print when they can raise the rates and kill inflation bring down markets and bring down prices deflation
Finally ! Been waiting an hour since putting my son to sleep hahaha.
Very interesting about the employment data. It used to be the reverse (a few months ago), where the payroll data showed weaker employment than the surveys. Lots of people, myself included, thought it was being manipulated. Then I heard a much more plausible theory:
The household survey is just a survey whereas the payroll data is quarterly or monthly or something like that, reports. So basically the SURVEY kept getting revised DOWN based on the REPORTS from actual IRS Payroll data.
Well, Goldman came out with this analysis and basically attributed it to people working that aren't showing up on payroll reports - basically illegal immigrants. So they'd call up these households, they'd say, "yes, we're employed," and then when the IRS data came out, it showed something very different.
Interesting to see that trend now reverse...
the last 6 years employment numbers are stated that native employment is down and foreign hirees are up alot...this has been going on since 2017... in other words americans aren't being hired, illegals are
Great show, subbed!
Garbage in, garbage out. When you use garbage to generate garbage, that's a whole new tier of muck.
Bro the thumbnail making me nervous I just want my q1 pumps
Thank you for the transparency. Nobody else says this.
Good one today again ! Thank you Camel !!
Don't care who lies, so long as i get rich first
@@lawrencef8507 it’s not the getting rich which is the issue, it’s hanging on to it over time!
Learn every time you put these guides. I got nothing short of being shot down in flames when I mentioned to a group of drinking buddies a recession is imminent and the top is closer than they think. It was a lonely beer from then on 😂
Great info in the video, thanks Camel 😀
There’s a good lecture by John Mearsheimer on YT called ‘why leaders lie’ (title of a book he wrote) and my understanding of his view is that they don’t directly lie, but instead either ‘spin’, ‘exaggerate’ or ‘omit’ the truth or the combination of these, but directly lying is too dangerous as they can be found to have been blatantly lying 🤥 which risks their job and entire career
Thanks Camel have a good weekend
Weekend recap. Let’s gooooo!
Once could be error, but twice is incompetence, yet more is a pattern of malfeasance surely?
Isn't deliberately misleading repeatedly, a crime in public office?
@@AgeofDictatorships-yc1yt sadly it seems so and it just brings ALL public body announcements into disrepute :o
How can the s&p be topping but btc still has tot big of upside? Doesnt seem a possible combination
Nice content left an abo there 😊 (denglish 😅)
Thank you camel, will be a level 3 as soon as I'm in a position to be
Appreciate you Camel!❤️
valuable insights, subscribed.
Love the take profit meme. Great vid uncle camel , thanks
thank you brother Camel 😁😁🥰
Thank you too
@@camelfinance when do we buy bitcoin?
People say the S&P500 is expensive but yet the 3 year chart only shows it up 25%... that's not really all that great in the grand scheme of things.
Welcome back Camel! Interesting news:
Germanys Economic Power is at an all time low suggesting upswing soon or record breaking lows sending this country to levels never heard of for decades. Same for France, EZB is bailing them out. So EU is sturggeling, China is massively financially stressed. US seems to hold okayish, suggesting that it favours the USA to be slow with the hikes! As all the other nations rely on these hikes, US is literally cooking them currently to regain a strategic advantage economically, but only for as long as the US can keep itself afloat. Makes so much sense.
100%
One thing that also adds conviction that we are in trouble is the fact that small and mid cap earnings are really expected to accelerate in to 2025, but where is that growth going to come from? We have already had +3% gdp "growth" why havent the small and mid caps grown earnings already if everything is so well? Do we need 6% gdp growth for small and mid caps to thrive or what?
This bullmarket is one of the unhealthiest bullmarkets we have had, driven by government spending and lots of liquidity bumping up the valuation multiples. Im not saying it cant continue but everything comes to an end at some point and when times get easy, you know the end is near. Keep an eye on gold, if it continues to go down it means we are probably running out of liquidity.
Great video!
From my few years studies, big IF we like to see BTC on 150k lvl price, we need bigger correction to 70-75k lvls first and still if economic data will be "positive" at that time. I did start shorting BTC from 107k lvl and still holding my position until 70-75 k lvls. 👍
2:32 Up only forever...! I'll be gosh darned, I thought you guys were being hyperbolic , yet, there it is, plain as day 🤣🐫
I am also balls deep short on SPX from the retest. Stops to break even so risk free. Happy to hold this for the long term
Good for stock and Bitcoin
Also the USA is not an island. Many economies around the world are headed into recessions.
happy new year brother🎉
Awesome analysis as usual camel! From your fan in Singapore!
Thank you very much!
I think resumption, simply because I am expecting a height of irrationality that is gargantuan.
So Powell might need to revisit his previous hawkish statements about fewer rate cuts in 2025.
And if that happens, the everything bubble may continue to inflate.
Hey Camel love the content. Do you still think energy is going to continue to decline? It’s already so beaten down. 😅
Selling any asset does not deflate the dollar …
I think you may be right now that sentiment has started shifting from "most called recession" to "up only forever". One more big "up" to create exit liquidity at the top, then a big sell-off. That would harm the most participants I think.
Hello camel nice work
I have a question, what's ur opinion on BRICS and devaluation of us dollars do that change anything?!
Well the last time we made a new ATH it consolidated for 8 months sideways in a range... It appears we are doing something similar again.
Consolidation is quite normal and breakouts occur very quickly
Hey Camel, when you say risk being sold into the dollar, how does a bid on the dollar cause deflation? You are talking about a strong dollar in terms of ex. rate? ie. Cheaper imports?
Strong relative dollar and demand destroyed due to a risk off event and recession.
thankyou for all your work
Thank you Camel ❤
You can be right and make money. One final blowoff top before the crash very soon
Also of concern is the uninversion of the yield curve and it's track record for calling recessions.
I know some people will say, yea but it hasn't been right every time, this time is different too.
Well when you run the probability on historical data it has still been right over 90% of the time so that is not a mathematical probability bet anyone should be willing to take, you have better odds going to the casino with your life savings and dumping money on black at the roulette table.
Look at December 2016… January 6 2017
Compare to this years dates and highs
Great video bro. Feels like 3-9 months for the blow off top to me but we shall see. I took a $400 strike MSTR call option to expire in April targeting $600-700 with the assumption of BTC running to $140k in Q1. Then I’ll be looking for puts 1-2 months out if the technicals setup for a pull back.
Thank you brother 🤝
🤝
Do you think it's likely we get a new rejection from 100-102k btc and flush down to 85k?
Hard to say right now. If we lose 90k we will likely need to chop for a couple of months
Great video!
Pro trader here - normal cycle I think. When are you calling off your hypothesis?
end of q1 i think
The hardest part is went to know, when to flinch
I’m convinced that we are on the precipice of economic chaos but due to recency bias, most retail will again be on the wrong side bc the crash will be a melt up this time! The answer is to hold assets, which is the opposite of what you’d want to do in a deflationary crash.
What is a melt up?
There is the least amount of money "on the sidelines" ever. Don't really think the majority would be harmed by a melt up.
The government will not allow deflation.
😂😂😂
Thank you mr C!
Great content as usual
Reach out to the BCB and do a collab with him if possible, you guys are the few UA-camrs who actually use data and don't bs people around.
This video hit me right in the PPI
I reckon we're the same place as we were 4th May 2021, what say you oh wise one? 🤔
I’m not sure to be honest
Personally I always look for at least a couple bearish or realistic UA-camrs just so I don't miss the talk and so I can play the market in a safer way. Anyone who's been in crypto now for three cycles like myself prefers more level-headed UA-camrs than wild crazy always bullish garbage. Thank you for creating quality content
Pure Raw Alpha. TY Camel.
This market could track over 50% and it would still be over valued
@camelfinance How does one find the US10Y-US03MY chart on Trading View? The US10Y is not the same as the one shown in your video.
You can't have Bitcoin blowing off to 150k and the index is not following with a blow off top. NASDAQ is highly correlated with Bitcoin
@CameI-Finance.ChanneI no thanks Jeet scammer
My man! That last one .. I felt attacked.. midlife crisis 😂😂😂.. but the boat worked… trading crypto!
Cycle will be the same as the others. Top in the fall, probably between 200k and 250k. M2 money will increase and stock market is going higher
Surely all that matters for the stock market is what people believe anyway? Not the true data, at least in the short term.
Yeah that's why this stock market phase is called euphoria. Smaller and smaller numbers of People euphorically bid higher and higher prices for assets until they run out of suckers to sell tulip bulbs or 40 PE shares of apple to, they run out of bank credit, and a deflationary bust bankrupts them all and the banks who foolishly supplied credit.
I agree we're headed for a correction, but why do you say (9:15) "the most recent round of rate hikes..."? They dropped the rate 0.75 in the past 3 months.
One thing to consider - Powell. He has come out and stated he would not allow inflation to occur (given how much deflation would hurt Big Gov).
Keep putting not allow deflation but YT keeps puting inflation - Powell wont allow deflation.
Lets make some money before the crisis.
Thanks Camel
This guy looks like he has a spare computer dedicated to x
I think crypto looks extremely bullish short term, I’ve got some very serious longs open. But I’m prepared to get out at the first sign of bearishness. I see exactly what camel sees I think, but not for the same reasons
thank you!
This is the blow off top, with no alt coins mooning?
Sui mooning
Watch yesterdays video
I think people are figuring out altcoins are a scam.
Huge whales frontran these coins so much in the bear, that all theyre doing now is selling.
But if we do get an alt season, its coming VERY soon. Like now. 1st or 2nd week of Jan. Thats historically when it starts. So we will know shortly.
No way they can avoid a global recession, just look around you...
Camel, sorry for pointing out the same for the last months but you say the indices are working on a second angle violation... and BTC is going to set a 4th angle??? I think it's obvious that these two predictions can't happen at the same time, UNLESS Trump signs his first day the national strategic reserve, and starts a race to buy BTC with other countries and companies. However, that seems unlikely and to good to be true...
Didn't you sell at the low? Remember seeing a video few days ago thumbnailed "I SOLD"
i think he rebought shortly after.
I dunno, im only here for bitcoin.
Took profits on breakdown before Christmas. Have been getting back in since Jan
I think bitcoin will top in the first quarter and probably drop 50% until mid year and then have a double top the end of third quarter or early 4th quarter of 2025 then the real bear market begins 🤔
What are you basing this off of your feelings ? You got a hunch lol? 😂
@ no look at the bitcoin chart and look at all prior cycles and come up with a conclusion, in prior cycles bitcoin tops near 300 days after halving and cool down, then has another top around 500 days after halving
Crazy times!
Cheers top C!
you are still the best.
Imagine my shock
What about "printer goes burrrrr"? I'm not wanting to hold fiat
Lets go Camel!!!!!
Government lied that’s a top signal.
Governments dont lie to their people, silly!
Its already over. These run ups are bear market rallys. For lower highs.