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Audemars Piguet - Their luck will run out
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- Опубліковано 18 сер 2024
- The Alyx 9SM really got me thinking - AP is making a ton of money, but can it continue?
I'm really curious as to how long Audemars Piguet can continue to not just be a one trick pony, but also be so fashion forward, so trendy, so popular.
Cheers to all my viewers out there. It's really appreciate that you tune in.
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If there was a Bachelor's degree in understanding watch brands I'd have you as the lead lecturer. Where other videos go “ meh” or “ love it”, you actually analyze and articulate why some brands or watches cause the reaction they do. Keep educating, I'm finding the journey fascinating. (doesn't stop me from watching Meh either lol, they provide entertainment)
Agree
Agreed. I think you might‘ve just given him an idea for a MOOC 😅
Don’t give me any ideas. I was just planning on selling a mug and some nato straps in the side. Now I’m thinking MLM all the way 😂😂😂
🔒👍🏾 this is an important asset and aspect of luxury watch collection: having analysts, experts, etc to talk about design, mechanics, vision, technology. Some of Watchbox’s folks are as informed and provide ‘education’ vs ‘hype-cation’ or plain hype. I hope education stays within luxury watch collection as some of us plan to keep watches in our family generations.
The one thing I will say about AP is… they can treat the Spider-man, Black Panther, etc as a back office collaboration that is on the spectrum of Apple computer doing a collab with a music band or something for Apple Music, i.e., it called be called a one-off set of back office, biz dev collabs. If needed then they could even deny ever doing it by erasing it from their websites and saying “we did it but it wasn’t us who did it…” as long as these runs don’t ever become integrated within the brand.
Smartest thing anyone ever said about AP. I appreciate your insight.
That’s a lot of praise. I’m just sharing a perspective. But really appreciate the feedback 😀😀😀
AP is appealing to the vacuous IG high fashion hip hop modern day crowd which just plain sucks. The watches look way too big on the models and they're putting them over their pivot point on their wrist. Horrible. Patek has all my respect. As does Rolex, Lange, JLC. BTW you have the wrong 'their' in your title. Thank you for the great content.
Glad you enjoy my content 😀
Agree, a huge miss on the individual watch. But also strange brand direction from such a historical maison. Why does AP feel the need to jump on trends? Patek will ultimately pull ahead with restraint in my opinion.
That’s my guess as well, but only time will tell 😀
Royal Oaks will become passe within the next few years and when it does, AP is going to tank like other once-popular brand fads like Panerai, 7Friday and U-Boat. Still in saying that, AP have a history of doubling-down on the Royal Oak and its derivatives, so I doubt anything will change.
Honestly, i like them .. especially that black dial dual tone.
We all like what we like. It’s the key 😀
As you eloquently stated, the ephemeral nature of fashion and trends is antithetically opposed to our perception of watches as truly timeless. That's to me is what's so jarring and unappealing about these latest AP pieces.
We are very much aligned 😀
Tremendously thorough and apt elucidation. Well done.
Thank you for yet another top notch opinion piece, thoroughly enjoyed this. Makes me reminded of how in the past, for decades the word “trendy” or “fashionable” was said to be a forbidden word in Mercedes Benz design. They insited to design cars that are beyond the trends, that way their cars would stay relevant 20 or 30 years down the line.
Excellent example with Merc - Staying true to a more timeless ethos has it’s value for sure 😀
Great points. Totally agree. Dial design might be a personal choice yet there is an overall rule behind what a watch should be. Don‘t mess with the non readability of the time dear watch makers!
Thanks for the feedback and for sharing. Appreciated 😀
Luxury watches is never about time and function it’s about achievement and what people see on your wrist
Exactly
it's a watch for ALYX buyers, we are mostly Gen Z :) the brand ALYX definitely took the creative direction on this release. as an ALYX lover myself i adore it because it's made for complementing the clothing & as an accessory, not necessarily a timepiece for life. it's more for haute couture / fashion people than the usual crowd.
Another excellent video! AP is definitely aiming for the young and hip crowd, which as you point out, tends to be fickle. In contrast, PP continues to stay the course and leverage its history as the top watchmaker in the game. The Stern family thinks in terms of decades. It will be interesting to see what AP’s new CEO has in store. I don’t expect much change in the short term.
Absolutely! - I’m curious about the new ceo direction next year as well 😀
Excellent analysis presented very clearly. Definitely on the money.
Much appreciated! 😀
Another excellent video, keep up the good work.
Cheers from Paris
Thanks, will do!
😀🇫🇷
I really liked your clothing analogy. Another, admittedly imperfect, one comes to mind - big pharma. Many of these ‘highly successful’ companies trace back to one, single blockbuster often >10yrs past. The profits are sufficient to knight the company itself as the paragon of success. Meanwhile, those >10yrs are spent R&Ding, trialing, etc. failure after failure, most of which should have been jettisoned much earlier on but weren’t b/c astronomically surplus cash reduces risk aversion to zero. Here, the analogy falls short b/c we don’t see the huge pile of big pharma failures, whereas we suspect that we do see AP’s. That said, AP still feels to me like a big pharma that once caught lightning in a bottle, has been throwing all caution to the wind trying to do it again ever since, and unless successful will ultimately be undone by its own recklessness.
Like the angle on pharma - Now that’s a sector that’s making too much money 😀
Your insights are spot on ... paired with a nice relaxing voice and tone ... weekend podcast vibe !!!
Thanks for listening 😀
Excellent view point
Glad you think so! 😀
AP is becoming Omega - making 1,000,000,000 variations of the Speedmaster and no one will wait in line for one (ok except the Swatch collab but that's another story)...
Swatch takes the prize for pure volume 😀
Agreed. IT would be like Rolex doing a moon phase. I happen to have an AP moon phase and wish they would not be a one trick pony.
Yes, this is absolutely correct. This approach destroyed other brands to me. Very poor choice to use a chrono here.
Thanks for sharing 😀
Great analysis en solid points, Could not agree more. Leave the spiderman watches to Swatch ;-)
Lol 😂😂
Agree. The future will tell but it surely is a risky strategy.
I think it is the marketing manager that is thinking short-term sales and will probably leave AP as soon as those bumpy tactics results start to decline.
They are getting a new ceo as of jan 2024 - curious to see if they change direction 😀
Those "1017 ALYX 9SM" monstrosities are hideous. Whoever buys those needs to be the first against the wall when the revolution comes
Maybe a little drastic, but I understand the sentiment 😀
Totally agree with your observation and the worry as in, IS AP RUNNING OUT OF IDEAS ? ARE THEY LOOSING CONFIDENCE? Do they really need all these influencer type support ?
Loosing respect for the brand will creep in soon.
Recently, AP have been lucky. They've mistaken that for cleverness. But, never overestimate people's taste and never underestimate the spending power in emerging markets and demographics. I'd say APs recent designs (hideous to my eyes though they may be) are more successful in achieving what they set out to than Patek's recent weak, forced-casual offerings like the 6007. AP is your grandfather in head to toe hypebeast Balenciaga; Grandad Patek should be wearing Hermes, is wearing Armani Exchange.
Love the analogy and totally agree ok the 6007g . Thanks for sharing 😀
As I often say, I love your analysis, very well thought out, and perfect pitch. I agree re the Alyx 9SM, but the young new money people its aimed at will never use the chromo function, I mean, who really uses it to time, apart from boiling an egg 🤣. You have to remember, these are aimed at the few % of new rich young buyers as a flex. AP aren't selling 1000's of these. Yeah, as you say, these buyers will move on, but the next wave will take their place, as for the Marvel monstrosities they are made to order, but they get millions of people taking about them, so to me, it's waving a flag to the new young rich, saying "look at me, look what we can do" is it marketing genius? Apart from Ed Sheeran and John Mayer who bought one because the other would buy one at £250,000 a pop🤣🤣🤣🙏🏼
That John Mayer - Ed Sheeran video was bonkers. They live on a different planet money wise 😀😀
totally, it's the same as you & I buying G-Shocks 🤣@@Mike.thiswatchthatwatch
@ 9:39, one will experience the most emphatic ""but"" in the history of emphatic but's. 😛
If I could get a Royal Oak below msrp maybe-otherwise I’ll have to be happy with my GA2100 with the mod kit 😎!
My guess is these things already resell at way above retail, which is beyond me 😀
They are 'Hublotizing' the brand
You stayed till the end I see 😂😀
@@Mike.thiswatchthatwatch Haha just saw that. Cheeky but honest ! 😂
AP be like: “What up fellow kids!”
lol 😂😂
Glad I came across this video. Great analysis. Giants come and go and it's the name of the game.
Welcome aboard! Thanks 😀
PRX quartz hommage
Lol 😂😂
Amazing insight. Thanks!
Thank you ! 😊
Everything is basically a sexing up of that one original genta design, that’s what’s allowed then to live through the 70s and a very good proportion of the 1980s - you can do a lot with that design There are probably a dozen different versions a variety of complications and such like and then you can add precious metal diamonds and a lot more, but when you take away that design - I’d actually like to own something else by them , because they are a prestigious name. when you take the basic Royal Oak, just like when you take any watch and you don’t have precious metal or such the most that watch can possibly be worth is about £10,000 look at the V,Constantine 56 .
Like Polo in the 90s
Interesting comparison. Hadn’t thought of that one 😀
@@Mike.thiswatchthatwatch Every next generation comes along and says “why is this popular” and separates timeless design from hype. Like Tiffany blue. “So early 20s”
AP’s running out of options!
Travis Scott 🤦🤦
If you are correct (I hope you are), that's a good news to me. I sincerely wish AP (especially RO line) falls out of fashion and becomes like Breguet as of now. I want an RO as much as its retail price but do not want as mush as the flipper price. I wish AP keeps doing risky bets until they eventually fail so I can pick one RO up from one of their boutiques with warm customer greetings, which seems to be absent at the moment despite the price point.
I don't want one. Outdated fashion watches can be had for infinitely less money in a meticulous quality from other guys. However I just don't like the design particularly. Neither technically nor aesthetically are they anything special. Buying in to those high prices is just a testament of having too much money. I don't feel the need to advertise my wealth to anyone. There is not advantage in that if you are young and actually handsome. And there is absolutely no need for that if you are somehow older and have your life in order.
@@rosomak8244 I really wish more people are on your side so that the day I can pick it up would come sooner.
I don’t see them completely falling off the radar, but I do wonder what the new CEO has pf ideas and whether the course should change 😀
So true. Why give us a chronograph that cannot tell me the time elapsed? That’s absurd. Might as well give me a watch without the hour and minute hand. Just the seconds hand will do.
It's almost like a moser ironic kind watch where they just removed all hands as a joke 😃😃
@@Mike.thiswatchthatwatchI believe there is some repeater function on the Moser Concept
Thanks for your viewpoint. I agree. AP has completely abandoned their traditional watch models and the growing market for vintage design. Maybe they milk this Royal Oak trend as long as they can, to raise enough money to reintroduce some vintage designs in the future. They are capable of setting a trend, or at least creating a talking point around the brand. The Code 11 made them look like the bad boys again, but now that the hate has died down, they actually sell them. And like their CEO stated, they were after a completely different customer base with this line of watches.
Unreasonably good.
Not with you, but hey. We like what we like 😀😀💪
It really looks like AP homaged a Michael Kors or mvmt watch
Ah he already said it
I really like the minimalist models except for the weight and price.
They are beyond minimalist. They are pure tokens of decadence. After all you can't read the time on them. If you need juwelry - buy a gold chain and wear it.
Weight and price are pretty big components 😀
100% agreed!
Thanks 😀
I do enjoy your videos old boy
Much, much appreciated 😀
I was an AP owner and loved the brand but agree with much of what you say and have gone off AP all together. I have sold one of my AP’s and the other is with a dealer being sold. Disappointing but I am off the AP bandwagon.
Brand reputation is everything. They are certainly alienating a customer base that has a completely different set of values and cultural tastes.
And is from a different culture altogether.
And yet they are making bank 😀😀
I think AP is trying to get bought.
1. AP are being brave by doing it afraid, pushing their time pieces designs above and beyond their performance envelope, if that suffices innovation though those dials are so plain and devoid of taste.
2. AP by running at the eye of the storm are putting volatility over stability, time pieces ought be more than just fashion statement but time less indeed.
3. AP while has some of the best dials ,the recent iteration are completely devoid of function, is it minimalism redefined.. only the designers can tale..
4. AP design team while so daring at its best, it needs to keep a balance between rapid changes and the risk of loosing brand or product identity..
Well said 😀
This thing is very expensive and really angular... This looks like a Chinese amalgamation of a MVMT and an AP. ( Lol I was typing it and then you said it hahaha!) Even if I had the money I would not buy this. It makes no sense and I am confused by the design language. Have a great weekend Mike!
Thanks! It’s scary when you see them and no amount of “but they’re finished better than an mvmt” can change my mind.
😀😀😀
@@Mike.thiswatchthatwatch Well said man! Its just not worth it to most people.
110%!!
😃
“There” (indirect object pronoun) in the title should be “their” (possessive pronoun). I love your channel, and always appreciate your thoughts on watches! 😊
Dammit!!!! I hate when I make those kind of mistakes.
Thanks. Both for the correction and the feedback 😀😀😀
I dig the minimalist look on these 🎉🎉 congrats to whoever gets one
The lucky few 😀
Congrats and well done for this informative vids AP should learn from Frank Muller past ✌️
Completely agree with Frank Muller comparison. They too make great watches but they just look so so bad. If someone gave me a Frank Muller for free, I would be happy to have it, bit would I wear it, no.
Much appreciated 😀
300 grams? they add weight to luxery car doors to make it seem more refined
This is true. Some speakers used to have cement in the base to make them feel more expensive and premlum 😀
It’s funny I don’t find the Audemar Piguet aesthetics appealing. I find these watches have no finesse, elegance, subtlety, discretion, etc… Not for me.
Ditto 😀😀
I believe AP is doing what they have always done since 1972. They are being AUD-acious. (See what I did there) 😊
The first royal oak was not well liked for the first 10 years. It was crazy and silly.
The offshore was the same in 1993. Massive. Silly.
I believe AP continues to see their role as the audacious prince of the Trinity.
They can afford to wait for 5 years before these “silly” watches become sought after.
The royal oak model have become too similar to each other on looks. I’m talking about the dial here. The case shape.
So they are pushing the envelope to push the way the brand on icon is viewed. If they stayed static, the brand would be boring.
A prince can not be boring. Boring is an adjective worse than “silly”. Perhaps “audacious” is the best adjective for the AP DNA.
Best wishes from Singapore. I run the Laureato Fan Club Facebook where we deep dive into GP. I welcome folks to join us.
#laureatofanclub
Fair viewpoint. With a new ceo incoming, I am curious to see what that means for the overall direction 😀
Next time I’m in singapore, I’ll shout out 😀
@@Mike.thiswatchthatwatch agree. Will be interesting to see what her views are about the market. Nice to have a lady head the company. And one from outside the watch industry too.
Ladies and unisex watches are an untapped segment and I expect that this is going to be an important area for Swiss brands to target.
Competition is everywhere for this Swiss watch industry. Especially from China. (Actually China is also producing for the Swiss in a big way. The Swiss just don’t want people to know).
Wanting certain brands and models regardless of logic is key. And a brand must there be respected and recognisable.
I continue to collect neo vintage Minerva and Girard-Perregaux. Stuff from circa 1995-2005. Rare birds only.
Have a pleasant day ahead ☀️
I agree these trendy models are horrendous but it’s only probably 5% of their production . It’s a way to get people talking about them. They still producing jumbos, skeletonise versions, high complications, etc for the hard core fans.
As much as I hate those trendy models my willingness (dream) to buy a jumbo at retail hasn’t decrease a bit
Slim for me 😀😀😀
Not a huge fan of AP in general, although I do agree that the Royal Oak is one of the most exquisitely designed watches of all times. A bona fide icon. Nevertheless, it was very interesting and informative watching your video and following your rationale. Keep up the good work sir 💪
No. The design of it is nothing particular. The tissot PRX is of the same breed and looks much more well balanced overall.
Thanks for sharing! And thanks 😀😀😀
Someone at AP needs to be fired , horrible watches they have been releasing.
Well… they are getting a new ceo as of 1. Jan 2024 😀😀
I don't care for watches that are hard to read. That gets old quick.
So, so true 😀
Compare AP with Porsche. The 911 is still the only lineup that defines them. The Royal Oak Spiderman edition vs. Porsche 911...zero collaboration. Puma did a collaboration with Porsche recently...but you will never see a puma themed 911, only a Porsche themed sneaker.
Cool analogy 😀
While I've always liked integrated bracelet watches, even before they were fashionable, the AP lines have just never really done anything for me. I own a VC overseas dual timer which my grandfather left me, and everytime ive had the opportunity to compare it with an AP; it always felt like something was missing. It sucks that AP is so hell bent on pushing royal oaks because those are the hype watch of the day, while most other large brands tend to look towards the long term. Looking at AP's back catelogue, there are some decent pieces that would be cool tonsee reissued eventually, but clearly they don't have any interest in such a thing. It feels more and more like theyve forgotten the years of the quartz crisis when the royal oak was written off as ugly and a waste of money.
Pharrell Williams comes to mind as next AP in-house designer because he does not have enough challenges at Louis Vuitton...
That WOULD be interesting for sure.
Thinks he’s a Richard Mille fan though…. 😀
Would really love to listen to your take on their new collab with Travis Scott… Seems to me like a brand suicide… at least for me, desirability is going downhill… Thanks for the great content though
It surprised me... mainly because TS has had some questionable behaviour in some contexts, but brands apparently don't think he's that problematic... As for the design - I think it's better than the Alyx, but still not my cup of tea 😃😃
@@Mike.thiswatchthatwatch thanks for the answer, M
much appreciated! It’s not my cup of tea either and I’m really having a hard time understanding their angle in trying to create the equivalent of a air Jordan collab with a prestigious brand with markup to high that very few people in the world can afford… normally classy people that would stay away from that and even other rappers that don’t want so be seen using the branding of a possible competitor… it’s boggling me actually. Of course I don’t expect you to answer, but what would think of an AP x Casio collab on a real CasiOak with premium design but affordable price (at least for many). I think it would more than break the watch world (more than the MoonSwatch) and it would be a very interesting story: the brand symbol of the quartz crisis with the one the actually saved Swiss watchmaking… Again thanks for your answer and for the awesome content!
Let's not pretend that we know more about the watch business than they do. I mean, they've only been doing it for, oh IDK, a million years. There will of course be hits and misses.
We’re allowed to speculate. And yes they’ve done it for a million years but just go back ten years and these geniuses had to buy back all their watches from the secondary market because they thought it would be a great idea to flood the market with watches nobody wanted.
😀
Minimalist, Ala 1970
The enigma is whether to call this brand royal oak or ap . I don’t think ap cares about horology and watchmaking anymore they are going in the same direction as hublot and my love for ap dies a little everytime i see patek and vc showing why they deserve the spot in the holy trinity
I think ap has decided they will put and do anything on the ro and it will sell so why bother 🤷♂️
You’re likely not the only one 😀
APS homage to a MVMT Chrono!😅
😂
I don’t even care about AP.
Among the few I think 😀
these marker-less chronographs are crazy- totally useless! I mean…. it’s like … what is it like?! … it’s like a SUV that cannot go off-road🙄
lux watches are not whats hot right now they are whats hot for genrations.. people buying these watches that are old school money are wearing 800 buck tennis shoes with no logo
I could not agree more, it is FUGLY and looks like a cheap fashion watch, the 11.59 has been outdone in the worst way possible...
To me at does at least 😀😀
I want actual markers on my dial to set the time correctly not this garbage.
Exactly 😀
these are very limited. you are not getting one. pretty much nobody is getting one. it is a marketing tool to get in front of the younger affluent who have a different sense of taste than older watch collectors. AP makes 40k watches a year. the RO and current Offshores are incredible watches. they will be fine.
very nice products ❤❤
To each his own 😀
The all yellow gold version is a thing of beauty. I would never buy one myself even if i could afford one but i'm unconvinced that this should be viewed as a misstep, far from it in fact. AP are directing their attention to the big hitters out there who will in all likelihood stumble over themselves for something as obscenely expensive as this. I actually believe it's a good move on their part, especially so with the market downturn of late.
Fair enough - We can’t always agree. And maybe it does just that - keep up th e attention 😀
Your right they are ugly
Not interested at all
I hear you 😀
I think these are hideous, unfit for purpose, and amateurish to say the least.
I’m with you 😀
these watches are for ultra rich its not supposed to attractive to us peasants
Perhaps 😀
bro no ones clocking time on these watches .. the lack of it shows they are enslaved to normal wage slaves
I normally like your videos and analysis. But this time I disagree with you.
You’re missing the point. First of all, these gimmicky pieces are extremely limited in number. They are not even meant for the mass market. And these are sold out/allocated even before they hit the market. So it’s irrelevant if they make the brand seem they are chasing trends. I bet you won’t even get to see any of these pieces in person as they are so limited.
Second, these are flex / fashion collab pieces. Whether they have a function is irrelevant. Even if it doesn’t tell the time and they are extremely overpriced, the super rich/famous will buy them just for the flex or to add to their collection. You’re not a super rich so you won’t understand why someone would buy it. They simply buy it because they can. It’s a status symbol.
Third, AP produces less than 50,000 watches a year. They are only available at AP Boutiques. All 50,000 units are sold out. So whatever risks you’re saying/predicting in your video won’t matter the tiniest to AP. The Royal Oak is the most famous watch design in the world. Period. There will be always be plenty of demand.
AP produces these collaborations precisely to grab headlines and to stay in the public’s eye. But at the same time they deliberately make these unavailable to make their brand highly desirable.
So I m sure you completely misread the point.
The point being made is that the current target market is volatile, and doesn't have any brand loyalty. Yes, AP is 'making hay while the sun is shining', but long term, they risk their brand's reputation, through alienating customers with a different, and deeper sense of core values, than those current customers of a more fickle, fashion oriented, disposition.
@@mindfulawareness1 I disagree again. It’s a status symbol. It’s highly recognisable and respected. As long as AP remains unavailable and outrageously expensive, even the fickle crowd will continue to desire these pieces. They wear these to flex. AP only needs to sell 50,000 pieces a year, which they can easily do. AP couldn’t care less if you hate them. You’re not their target audience. Like I said, these limited editions are so limited, even an AP VIP won’t get one. So it’s not even a relevant conversation.
Do you know what PESTLE and SWOT analysis is? Your analysis is based on certainty, that AP somehow has an unassailable immunity to changes in the external environment. Hmmm. I'd like to see AP's PESTLE/SWOT analyses.
@@mindfulawareness1 these models are ultra limited. They won’t even move the needle. If people fall out of love with AP, it definitely won’t be because of these models. If Hermes produced some ultra limited Kelly bags that look tacky, would Kelly fans desert the brand? NO! You’re making an issue out of nothing.
Right, ok.