Who Owns the Stock Market? | Animal Spirits 366
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- Опубліковано 4 лип 2024
- On episode 366 of Animal Spirits, Michael Batnick and Ben Carlson discuss: the biggest difference between bull and bear markets, cyclical vs. secular bull markets, what's wrong with Europe, Gen Z is obsessed with the stock market, spending on concerts, everyone is moving to the south, how the Fed can help the housing market, when to honk your horn, spending on groceries, and much more!
This episode is sponsored by Global X. Visit www.globalxetfs.com/ to explore a lineup of more than 90 ETFs, along with insights to help you navigate a dynamic investing landscape.
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► 00:00 - Global X Ad read
► 00:31 - Intro
► 02:16 - Can the Market Keep Going?
► 08:11 - Europe
► 13:42 - Nvidia vs Everyone
► 15:50 - Gen Z Loves Stocks
► 20:12 - Who Owns the Stock Market?
► 22:17 - Maximize Your Retirement Spending
► 24:24 - Cash
► 28:35 - Paying Up for the VIP Experience
► 30:22 - July 4th Travel
► 32:26 - Going South
► 35:32 - Housing
► 39:14 - Risk and Risilience
► 44:00 - Food Spending
► 47:24 - Recommendations
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Investing involves the risk of loss. This podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon for investment decisions and is not a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell any securities. Michael Batnick and Ben Carlson are employees of Ritholtz Wealth Management and may maintain positions in the securities discussed in this video. All opinions expressed by them are solely their own opinion and do not reflect the opinion of Ritholtz Wealth Management. See additional disclosures: www.ritholtzwealth.com/podcas.... “Likes” or other comments are not intended to be endorsements of Ritholtz Wealth Management, or their employees and are not compensated.
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This episode is sponsored by Global X. Visit www.globalxetfs.com/ to explore a lineup of more than 90 ETFs, along with insights to help you navigate a dynamic investing landscape.
Ben carrying the convo for the first 20 mins
The batnick pic as the character from seinfeld was the best. Great photoshop job guys.
We spend so little on food compared to the rest of the world because of the farm bill. We subsidize like crazy. Bread and circus, it’s a powerful tool.
One of my biggest pet peeves. When an idiot is glued to their phone when a light has been green for more than 3 seconds deserves a honk. Light honks are fine. Not trying to be a dick.
On the subject of food costs people tend to conveniently forget almost all food in the US is heavily subsidised by the government. As a friend once put it “we have to drink shitty coke sweetened with corn syrup because our taxes payed for the corn allowing McDonald’s to buy it cheap and sell It back to us at triple the profit margin of a coke in Canada”
Great show, guys. I see a lot of people are now trading off the moon cycles with surprisingly great results 😅
I remind myself that the Dutch east India Company VOC, starting in yr 1600 provided %20 annual returns for almost 200 years. That was one company. The S&P 500 is much more diversified.
34:46 this was a very solid take by your viewer. We are addicted to low interest rates as constant consumers
On the food thing. At least Europeans and Japanese spend more for better quality diet. Not surprisingly, those countries have longer healthier lives.
Totally. US food quality is on average quite low (fast food weighs a lot into that)
Was thinking a similar thing. Lower cost food but relatively higher spending on health for WORSE results.
If I found out my financial advisors spent $600 on concert tickets I would fire him on the spot 😂
why? means he has money to spare.. he already invests enough
@@Financial_Literacy_ForYou 99% chance this was paid for using a credit card with credit card debt 😂😂😂
Loved the discussion on concerts. My daughter and husband attended the Dead and Company at the Sphere in Las Vegas for 3 nights. I am 80 and my concert going is the Jazz Bistro in St Louis. Keep up the discussions. You guys are the best and of course Josh. Love your charts. Thanks
With three kids, our grocery bill is way higher than 6% of our pay
The way batnick says "tarot" like carrot is hilarious
Love that you like DMB. I see them every year at Jones Beach. Try OAR. Great live band fun vibe
I like OAR, never seen them live though.
Great historic charts for perspective.
f you ever get too caught up in the movements of the stock of the day (Nvidia) or theme of the moment (Mag 7), just watch old episodes of the NBR (Nightly Business Report) the old PBS business/finance news show on public television circa 1979 to 2013 on UA-cam.... Tune in for the crash of 87, the late 90's tech boom, or the start of the GFC, etc...
It is nostalgic but also provides perspective on the main issue of that day in history and gives you a sense of the value of the long game, holding through the ups and downs. And "wishing all of you the best of good buys (or goodbyes)" .. RIP Paul Kangas IYKYK
after yesterdays episode of wryt batnick just needs to sign all his emails
Rockin Ass, Batnick
Thanks Fellas. Good show..gotta run market open .👋
Nice shirt!
If you overlap the productivity chart with a chart of the US Dollar vs the Euro (or GBP) they track pretty well. In a global economy how much of the productivity gap is caused by a weakening local currency, where the same output of work in euros is now worth less in the world reserve currency?
Is the productivity gap a currency effect, or is it the opposite and the productivity increases are causing the dollar to strengthen?
Claiming that housing needs relief is missing that the Fed is currently providing relief from the policy mistake they made in the pandemic that saw prices rise dramatically.
The majority of mortgage holders have rates below 3.5%…lowering rates by 50 basis points doesn’t entice that homeowner to move. It doesn’t unlock inventory..it unlocks credit, which will push prices even higher.
What is the daily/weekly newsletter with the links Ben is talking about in Recommendations?
it's: abnormalreturns.com/
Kids in amsterdam was sweet just saying 4 and 2 yrs old. They loved it!
I literally died laughing when Michael said all the 18-22 yr olds at the concert were buying tickets with trading profits 🤣🤣 @27:24
Bull sharks have been found in fresh water. Being bitten can drastically reduce your returns.
Productivity is input hours divided by output hours. Output hours is how many hours it takes to produce a product. Input hours are hours worked. When people produce more product in an hour this is increased productivity. Most productivity gains come from improving processes via capital investment. Examples would be robots and automation. Productivity movements actually has little to do with effort of employees outside of extreme examples. The Industrial revolution greatly improved productivity and made people's work easier.
International tourists and expatriates taking advantage of favourable tax regimes. Until quite recently, Portugal didn’t tax crypto gains for example.
Batnick in the VIP skybox for Rage Against the Machine is hilarious.
Why is there a prime rate that they fed sets for everything? Like for example why isn't there a specific housing rate that can stay lower and then a commercial/industrial rate that stays higher to still tamper inflation? What am I missing here?
39:10 Been living in Italy and traveling to a few other European countries this past year as a member of the US Navy. With zero research besides my eyeballs, seems like majority of housing over here is multi family, even well outside major cities. Single family homes seem to be very uncommon and yet US affordability is better 🤯.
Where do the foreign investors, who choose SPY or QQQ get counted? Passive Index Funds or Foreign Investor bucket?
Life is back to normal in america when markets move up.
Returned from Europe on June 29. Agree with Ben; I guess it's cheaper to bring young kids to Europe where they won't remember anything in later years than to pay a sitter to watch them at home.
Not to scare your son Ben but bullsharks can survive in freshwater and have been seen as far up the Mississippi River as st Louis. This is of course an incredibly rare occurrence and he should not stop him from going swimming
I feel like most folks who join a company with a stock grant as part of their compensation spend that money as soon as that stock vests.
35:10 - The level of rates should depend on inflation level and economic growth. It should not be about where one "feels" rates ought to be. It could be that the optimal rate level in the long run is zero or near zero. The fact that we feel zero rates are "wrong" is irrelevant.
On the food %, I wonder if it’s based on average household income or median household income. If average, then we might look better compared to other countries? WSJ had an article on this maybe a year ago and it was ~10%. I can’t find it but I wonder why the difference.
EDT. Eastern Daylight Time.
24:51 the nit i'd pick here is money market funds don't pay dividends
You could also die from dysentery traveling back in the day
actually Bull sharks do swim upriver 100's miles into fresh water......Ben
Did an adult just ask if there are sharks in Lake Michigan?
So are there? 😂
There are sharks in Fresh water in Australia
So does that make it reasonable that there are sharks in lake Michigan no where near the ocean?
Wasn't JetBlue the first to have the TV's?
JetBlue was the first to have TVs fleetwide. For the legacy carriers, TVs slowly became popular, until they were dropped in favor of stream to your own device. Delta was the first to bring them back almost fleetwide (minus regional jets that might, say, fly into GRR - sorry Ben). Now United is bringing them back as they try to compete with Delta head-to-head.
29:20 you should look up what Blippy did before the kids stuff. He tried to go viral a different way. Don't look it up at work though. If it's in a bathroom and plays The Harlem Shake you found it 🤣
Yet to see an episode where Ben accepts the possibility that he can be wrong on any point he makes.
Hes 5’5, little man syndrome
“You can’t own the water, it’s God’s water.” 😂
Your completely in the wrong on the honk. Accept the fact you held up traffic, you know you would be upset. Just drive on and accept you were totally in the wrong
Very funny that Michael finds the guy’s quick email disclaimer rude yet he basically has the same exact (unspoken) policy for a random kid who wanted to speak with him.
I just assumed Ben Carlson was a pseudonym.
This is all macro. look at average earnings in Europe vs USA. Eg Switzerland is 110k vs 55k. Yes the rich in USA are getting richer. But middle class is much better off in Europe.
Talk about Tom Lee
18:19 😂❤
Don't honk in Phoenix
Considering Michael’s floundering attempts at professionalism during his early years have been mined for comedy gold here on the show (resume, job interviews, etc.) his demands for meeting and email etiquette today is unbelievable. Michael, cut people some slack, especially younger folks just getting started. You were a total buffoon once too.
Ben’s soup nazi comparison is spot on. 😂
Man.. you don’t like bagels Ben.. that’s a double demerit.
Let me summarise any episode:
Things aren't as bad as people think
The market can keep going up
Housing doesn't do what it is expected to
The S&P is the best investment
The inflation you see and feel isn't really that bad, but it's actually worse for higher net worth/ income individuals because people that used to make $15/hr now make $20 and that increase is a higher percentage than a $100,000/yr individual has gotten.
Hey Batnick, tarot is pronounced teh-row. Accent on first syllable.
Lol
Actually its - Tair-Ohh … Like the word Pharaoh …
To believe Millennial or Gen Z use astrology or Tarot is laughable.
Their too busy playing GTO and doing their Insta Reels and updating their dating profiles - 🙄
The problem is the Brokerage firms bullying individual investors with their large market control of naked shorting.
the bodyguard is so goofy
Economically, Europe is "dead". They largely exchanged investment in innovation, entrepreneurship, and market dynamism for high tax, high social benefits, low productivity nanny states.
I'm not even saying whether what Europe has done is right or wrong, although I live and would much rather live in the US.
But I do find it ironic that many Europeans are incredibly smug about every problem the US has (despite having been to a couple big cities and not the rest of the 99% of the country), while largely ignoring the fact that they become increasingly irrelevant economically, diplomatically, and militarily every individual year.
Whenever I go somewhere in Europe, there are many kind and normal people, but there's also many who are extremely eager to tell me their every gripe with America as if I'm a national diplomat. It's strange and not something I ever have or would do to a tourist here.
I just kind of smile and think about the fact I live in a low crime area with under 3% unemployment, make great money, have great health insurance, and pay way less taxes than they do.
But you could never tell anyone in Western Europe any of that, they have predecided that they are better than you, and that you as an American live in a crime infested dystopia. And pity you that where you live isn't more "European".
I'm convinced there's not a single European aware that great places to live not only exist in the US, but are relatively abundant. The country is massive.
Eventually the EU economy could shrink enough that high taxes and large social benefits of some of its member states become untenable.
The US has plenty of problems, just like everywhere on this earth has its own unique problems to deal with. And some of our problems are getting worse.
But I am so happy every day that I was born somewhere with the economic opportunities (abdundant employement, strong stock market, entrepreneurial opportunities, relatively low taxes compared to most the Western world, etc.) to build my life and wealth as I see fit.
I think sometimes many Europeans only view the US through a very pessimistic lens, nitpicking all of the bad, and have little to no concept of a the good of living here, and just how good it can be. And no, I wasn't born with a silver spoon. That's the best part. Anyone can succeed.
monkey man was entertaining
PIIGS, Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece, and Spain are one paycheck short of being a third world country. Southern Italy has no real economy or industry, just tourism. Same for Portugal and Greece.
Europe is in secular decline because of demographics.
Why are you guys so confident that lowering rates won’t coincide with further increasing prices? I don’t see how you’re so certain that lowering rates would fix the housing market.
Aren't you guys too young to be in 60/40 portfolios?
I don't believe either actually is.
Ben has mentioned he has a barbell strategy balancing risk assets and cash equivalents
@@erickarnell Ben said that at 6:00 minutes. Perhaps he has cash equivalents rather than bonds for the 40%
@@JoeS97756 lol he was referring to their shirts
@@rh3108 Ha, just listened again and you're right....they showed that 60/40 chart and somehow I thought that's what they were talking about. ok Good I have more respect for them knowing they're not in 60/40 portfolios.
jeff nichols is a decent director but the bikeriders is pretty mediocre
It was decent for the character actors. Not a big fan of movies or tv that feature lowlifes.
Not sure why you're asking regarding Europe as the answer is easy. They're stuck in high regulation protectionism, the EU is the problem. The reason the US does ok is because they print fake money more so and have the reserve currency and export their inflation to everyone else. As to Europe and Americans on holiday, Americans don't even know where Europe is on a map. The US is not free market capitalist anymore, they're moving towards socialism. The market in US is not dictate by the private sector. Reversion to the mean will happen, always does always will. Example, Chinese stocks.
How can both of you mispronounce tarot so badly?
Party On 🥳🥳✌️✌️🫶🫶