Hi Mangs, I’m assuming that the percentage damage is uniformly distributed. That is 36%, 37%, …, 59% damage have an equal chance of happening. Also, you’ve assumed that the first attack knocks the infantry on a city to 5 HP. That’s not always going to happen, so the probability of a 2 shot kill is conditional on the first attack. If the infantry has 7HP, the resulting damage range is 40-66% and if it’s 6HP, the resulting damage is 42-69% (5HP as you’ve shown has a range of 43%-71%). I wrote a short piece of MATLAB code to loop through all scenarios. It looks like the probability is about 62.7%. FirstAttack = 36:1:59; ResultingHealthAfterFirstAttack = 10 - floor(FirstAttack/10); SecondAttack{7} = 40:1:66; % 7HP SecondAttack{6} = 42:1:69; % 6HP SecondAttack{5} = 43:1:71; % 5HP count_success_2SK = 0; count_total = 0; for i = 1:length(FirstAttack) for k = 1:length(ResultingHealthAfterFirstAttack) SA = SecondAttack{ResultingHealthAfterFirstAttack(i)}; for m = 1:length(SA) count_total = count_total +1; total_damage = FirstAttack(i) + SA(m); if (total_damage >= 100) count_success_2SK = count_success_2SK+1; end end end end "The probability of a two-shot kill is " + num2str(count_success_2SK/count_total) + " or " + num2str(100*count_success_2SK/count_total) + "%" ans = "The probability of a two-shot kill is 0.62684 or 62.6844%"
If I recall correctly one of Mangs's old videos, and if it's the same in AWBW, bad luck and good luck rolls are separate. This means, with Barbaric Blow for instance, you get a first roll of [-39..0] then a second roll of [0..89] with the final result being the sum of these two. Not sure how it would affect the kill chance, assuming AWBW's Flak even works that way, but at first glance it's not a linear distribution.
@@andregon4366 Orks are traditionally more rng and luck based depending on editions. Their melee is always solid, but their other stuff is typically shaky. Sometimes they get special rules that are gambling like. Healers that might randomly kill person instead, jetpacks that might explode if you choose to fly further, shooting accuracy in general.
imho, Flak could be really good in T4 match Live queue. With luck, you have to think twice more as the OPPONENT, and you can push really easy with that in mind.
12:25 Actually, Block Rock would be FANTASTIC here, because your units are greatly out of position and you just used your power. The +2 movement would allow your opponent to completely surround your HQ with his vehicles and do an unstoppable HQ cap. But hey, that's live play.
12:41 saddest helicopter attack ever! That poor 7 HP helicopter wanted to wall the HQ cap/artilllery so badly I could feel the tears pooring out of the windshield when it got sent to attack a tank!
My wildest dream is to do what Grimm Guy does but with Jugger. Only problem with that is that you have to pray hard to the Casino Gods to get it right, so it's not easy to pull off.
i used to play with helmut a lot back in the day and still do it, one of the more fun to play cos just due to it's sheer randomness. and yes, flak name in the eu version is helmut
Imo, Flak’s powers could make your meat-shields go offensive (inf benefits most from his Super). Any units that has less value should attack higher-value units (inf atk everything, tanks atk med/neo) or rush in and take out their indirects. You might find Flak most fun in small maps as his Super can either tear down opponent’s frontline, or unluckily build wounded meat-shields (that can still block dangerous units). Either way, use that chance to disrupt opponent’s formation while reposition yours
Hey mangs I have a challenge for you, can you beat first jess mission in the normal campaing, but you can't use units that cost more than 12000 (predeployed units have to be deleted if they don't follow the rules).
How do two sonyas with active supers work Can you get two units to kill each other? Wonder if you could get a mod to give flak first strike, then do a flak off lmao
I keep wanting to do a Flak and Jugger only account, called Jak and Flugger, the issue is I am bad at Advance Wars. The Will is there, but the skill is not.
With Luck damage, there is a tension between the goals of taking favorable engagements, and protecting your infantry/total unit count. Yeeting your units as a Luck CO will only feed free dudes to your opponent. (Not to say you did that, necessarily. Just thinking out loud.)
It was annoying how often you pulled out the damage calculator. You did way too much. I came here to watch the match, not hear about math and "oh, my chances were precisely this!", just eyeball it and say it, i'll believe you
Glad to see Chociloni here, and even winning! I like the guy. He's certanily above my level, but his games tend to be entertaining. Also, he created several Golden Sun/Weyard themed maps and those are maybe weird to play, but SO AESTHETICALLY PLEASING. At least for a Golden Sun series lover like myself.
Next time, try using Brute Force only instead of Barbaric Blow. I don't know exactly how to explain, but my theory is that Brute Force has a better average vs unit number. In AW not all engagements are made equal, some are way more important than others, so if these key fights don't do great with CO power is still "fine", but if they go terrible with his Super you're screwed. One example would be you and your opponent have one Neo Tank each. With no power, Flak can do 46% ~ 79%, which is already reasonable. With power it rises to 41% ~ 109%, already powerful enough to one-shot and in the worst roll, still 4 damage. With super however, the rolls are 21% ~ 149%, if you have a bad roll here, dealing only 2 damage, you're toasted. There might be a case yeeting lower cost units, like tanks with Barbaric can one-shot Neos with 0% ~ 105%... or, you can just use brute force and possibly do 0% ~ 65% already, AND use power again sooner.
I dont think we will ever see a flak guy have success. Grimm is fun because he is consistent, if you are good enough you can take games with Grimm just by planning how to use your resources, with flak is a crapshoot and the average result is just bad
HI mangs I have been following your channel for 4 years now and enjoyed your content i loved advanced wars 2 more than anything it was the first game i had on my game boy and held onto it when the reboot came out and when i heard about advance wars by web i had to try it out i havent done a match but i will pick flack and only flack cause i like his character so i will become flack guy cause i want a challange all i need is help getting into AWBW and will do it but keep going with your bad self and hope to see more!
Peak flak is truly an rng fest! You better pray to the rng gods before smashing the power button! Pro tip: try to use flaks indirect bombers they are quit strong if used correctly
that infantry/MD tank engagement was the most disappointing point of the match. I was here in my chair praying to Flak Jesus, but alas he did not deliver. sad days
I love how Olaf can summon a cold so fierce he literally frezzes enemy units alive. Drake wash his enemies away.. Sturm just summon a METEOR to blow his enemies up... Then there is Flak. In his power he flex his strength. In his super power he gets very angry. Love Flak
Hi Mangs,
I’m assuming that the percentage damage is uniformly distributed. That is 36%, 37%, …, 59% damage have an equal chance of happening. Also, you’ve assumed that the first attack knocks the infantry on a city to 5 HP. That’s not always going to happen, so the probability of a 2 shot kill is conditional on the first attack. If the infantry has 7HP, the resulting damage range is 40-66% and if it’s 6HP, the resulting damage is 42-69% (5HP as you’ve shown has a range of 43%-71%). I wrote a short piece of MATLAB code to loop through all scenarios. It looks like the probability is about 62.7%.
FirstAttack = 36:1:59;
ResultingHealthAfterFirstAttack = 10 - floor(FirstAttack/10);
SecondAttack{7} = 40:1:66; % 7HP
SecondAttack{6} = 42:1:69; % 6HP
SecondAttack{5} = 43:1:71; % 5HP
count_success_2SK = 0;
count_total = 0;
for i = 1:length(FirstAttack)
for k = 1:length(ResultingHealthAfterFirstAttack)
SA = SecondAttack{ResultingHealthAfterFirstAttack(i)};
for m = 1:length(SA)
count_total = count_total +1;
total_damage = FirstAttack(i) + SA(m);
if (total_damage >= 100)
count_success_2SK = count_success_2SK+1;
end
end
end
end
"The probability of a two-shot kill is " + num2str(count_success_2SK/count_total) + " or " + num2str(100*count_success_2SK/count_total) + "%"
ans =
"The probability of a two-shot kill is 0.62684 or 62.6844%"
Love comments like these!
If I recall correctly one of Mangs's old videos, and if it's the same in AWBW, bad luck and good luck rolls are separate. This means, with Barbaric Blow for instance, you get a first roll of [-39..0] then a second roll of [0..89] with the final result being the sum of these two. Not sure how it would affect the kill chance, assuming AWBW's Flak even works that way, but at first glance it's not a linear distribution.
Also your opponent could have captured your hq without answer since turn 14 and finish on 15, if he had use block rock and move planned
AW has low key the smartest people as part of its fandom
Flak fiend
Flak Guy lacks the alliteration of Grimm Guy, it should be Flak Fellow, Flak Friend, Etc.
Flak fiend, or Flak fan could work too.
I submit FlakJack
It works better as a rhyme imo. FlakAttacc would work
If only there was a convenient one syllable f word that would sound punchy when paired up with "flak"
@@scarabix3D flak *redacted*
Mangs: is he walking into a brute force right now?
Literally everyone: I have never been worried about that.
You pick Flak, because it is fun
You pick Orcs in 40k, because it is fun.
You don´t pick the orc life, the orc life picks you.
Waaaaaaaghhhhh
*Orks
Isn't that the point of games?
@@andregon4366 Orks are traditionally more rng and luck based depending on editions. Their melee is always solid, but their other stuff is typically shaky. Sometimes they get special rules that are gambling like. Healers that might randomly kill person instead, jetpacks that might explode if you choose to fly further, shooting accuracy in general.
You actually look alot like flak. You should do a full on cosplay!
Uh... Mangs looks like a meathead?
"Flak Guy"? no. Flak FELLA.
Perhaps... Ape Man?
Flak vs Jake... its like seeing a gorila with a gun, of course he can melt you or he melt first vs a guy being a wannabe sonic with love to plains
Will we eventually get Flak Guy???
Mangs should be Flak Guy.
You can be Flak guy and Deejus can be Jugger guy
You?
Why not Flak Fellow
imho, Flak could be really good in T4 match Live queue. With luck, you have to think twice more as the OPPONENT, and you can push really easy with that in mind.
I don't even need to watch the video.
The thumbnail itself is peak!
12:25 Actually, Block Rock would be FANTASTIC here, because your units are greatly out of position and you just used your power. The +2 movement would allow your opponent to completely surround your HQ with his vehicles and do an unstoppable HQ cap. But hey, that's live play.
12:41 saddest helicopter attack ever! That poor 7 HP helicopter wanted to wall the HQ cap/artilllery so badly I could feel the tears pooring out of the windshield when it got sent to attack a tank!
We need a sequel video to "Stop caring about fire emblem" titled "Stop caring about advance wars" and it's just flak propaganda.
Mangs: *gets no good luck rolls and proceeds to get demolished*
Also Mangs: Play Flak guys it's fun!
Oh i watched this match live yesterday. Loved to look it ^^
My wildest dream is to do what Grimm Guy does but with Jugger. Only problem with that is that you have to pray hard to the Casino Gods to get it right, so it's not easy to pull off.
After a minute watching the video I wanted to scroll down to post: "Flangs" only to realize that he already named himself that way.
Maybe Mangs found out Flak is an eggman just like him and felt a new connection with the character.
Title: this game is peak flak
Mangs: looses
Mangs: "pick flak 👍"
Refuses to elaborate
i used to play with helmut a lot back in the day and still do it, one of the more fun to play cos just due to it's sheer randomness. and yes, flak name in the eu version is helmut
Imo, Flak’s powers could make your meat-shields go offensive (inf benefits most from his Super). Any units that has less value should attack higher-value units (inf atk everything, tanks atk med/neo) or rush in and take out their indirects.
You might find Flak most fun in small maps as his Super can either tear down opponent’s frontline, or unluckily build wounded meat-shields (that can still block dangerous units). Either way, use that chance to disrupt opponent’s formation while reposition yours
Dear Mangs, I like the idea of you making a custom CO in advance wars. Can you make a video about units that are good for stardard and CO only unit?
"As you can see..." no we can´t see because you had the calculator too low.
Mangs newest challenge: play and win with only flak 😂
Flak losing due to bad luck? Yup it really is peak flak!
Fortune favors the Flaks who fear no foe
Hey mangs I have a challenge for you, can you beat first jess mission in the normal campaing, but you can't use units that cost more than 12000 (predeployed units have to be deleted if they don't follow the rules).
99% of flak mains quit maining him right before they roll fat. Don't stop gambling.
Flak’s unique luck rolls making him an unusual BCopter-Recon specialist is why I love AW’s COs so much, flaws and all
flaks reboot camp theme goes soo hard, they're really awesome in general
You should make a fireemblem 6,7 or 8 patch that makes all your units have flak luck damage or something like that
How do two sonyas with active supers work
Can you get two units to kill each other?
Wonder if you could get a mod to give flak first strike, then do a flak off lmao
I wish Flak was allowed in tourney play
I love playing Flak
Forget Flak Guy, we need a player named Juggernaut to only play Jugger
Lowkey... I could be Flak guy if I got decent at this game. I like playing Flak. : >
Alas, I am dumb at this game.
Love the ending! 😂
I mean Flak is the Devil Axe of Advance Wars...
I keep wanting to do a Flak and Jugger only account, called Jak and Flugger, the issue is I am bad at Advance Wars. The Will is there, but the skill is not.
A man of Flakulture.
Flak guy, me half sleep
Jugger bot, *TERMINATOR VIBES*
With Luck damage, there is a tension between the goals of taking favorable engagements, and protecting your infantry/total unit count. Yeeting your units as a Luck CO will only feed free dudes to your opponent. (Not to say you did that, necessarily. Just thinking out loud.)
Tbh now i want to make an awbw account and name it Flugabwehrkanone (Flak in short) cause this idea is marvelous
Please name it "Flak Fellow"
Oh man that’s a nice medium tank you got there would be a shame if something… oh well, never mind then. Thats basically flak in my experience
funny, you are playing against my AWBW buddy
I wonder if Mangs is going to catch some.... flak for this.
I'll show myself out.
Mangs didn't pray hard enough to casino bot.
We need Uber Flak, doubling every advantage and disadvantage.
How about Flak Girl? ♥
Flakback when.
I am a Jugger main in AWBW. I will tell you, rnjesus giveth and rnjesus taketh away.
Ending was the best part, hahah
Unfortunately, the guy she tells you not to worry about is never the guy you don't have to worry about, which is Flak.
Flakkalakalaka
Other flak names:
Flemish Flak
Flakdimir
French Flakgue
Flakkapult
dude, you are "the flak guy"
Flak mains rise up
Flak Fella when
Ladies and gentleman... I have a new hobby
*cracks open a beer*
... oh no
My, oh my...😮
Flak!
🥚
You Pick Flack Cuz ur the PEAK FLAK
Play Flak
It was annoying how often you pulled out the damage calculator. You did way too much.
I came here to watch the match, not hear about math and "oh, my chances were precisely this!", just eyeball it and say it, i'll believe you
44 views 1 minute. SO sad D:
„These bombers... They're indirect- combat units." - Flak
Glad to see Chociloni here, and even winning! I like the guy. He's certanily above my level, but his games tend to be entertaining. Also, he created several Golden Sun/Weyard themed maps and those are maybe weird to play, but SO AESTHETICALLY PLEASING. At least for a Golden Sun series lover like myself.
Playing as Flak is how we Brazilian say: "Vivendo a vida louca!" (Living a crasy life!)
Because why not play as Flak? If is in the game, why not? XD
When I saw Flak I just assumed bad luck rolls 👍
The luck giveth and also taketh away
i think flak is actually worst than grimm because his unreliability
First we had a Grimm Guy, now we might have a Flak Fella
I think that Flangs and Jangs are the same guy 🧐
Next time, try using Brute Force only instead of Barbaric Blow. I don't know exactly how to explain, but my theory is that Brute Force has a better average vs unit number. In AW not all engagements are made equal, some are way more important than others, so if these key fights don't do great with CO power is still "fine", but if they go terrible with his Super you're screwed.
One example would be you and your opponent have one Neo Tank each. With no power, Flak can do 46% ~ 79%, which is already reasonable. With power it rises to 41% ~ 109%, already powerful enough to one-shot and in the worst roll, still 4 damage. With super however, the rolls are 21% ~ 149%, if you have a bad roll here, dealing only 2 damage, you're toasted.
There might be a case yeeting lower cost units, like tanks with Barbaric can one-shot Neos with 0% ~ 105%... or, you can just use brute force and possibly do 0% ~ 65% already, AND use power again sooner.
ayy thats what ive been doing on live league, only luck CO's. doesnt work out too well but its hilarious to destroy neotanks and shit with infantry
Mangs what are the plugins you are using on awbw
I dont think we will ever see a flak guy have success. Grimm is fun because he is consistent, if you are good enough you can take games with Grimm just by planning how to use your resources, with flak is a crapshoot and the average result is just bad
HI mangs
I have been following your channel for 4 years now and enjoyed your content i loved advanced wars 2 more than anything it was the first game i had on my game boy and held onto it when the reboot came out and when i heard about advance wars by web i had to try it out i havent done a match but i will pick flack and only flack cause i like his character so i will become flack guy cause i want a challange all i need is help getting into AWBW and will do it but keep going with your bad self and hope to see more!
Flak fiend
Peak flak is truly an rng fest! You better pray to the rng gods before smashing the power button!
Pro tip: try to use flaks indirect bombers they are quit strong if used correctly
Shadow of Aetheria Iron man?, I'm planning to do one myself. But are you mangs?
How I can activate the bgm in the web page?? I never found the option
Flakguy, the new Grimguy
Flangs promotes losing :(
Have you made a guide on each CO yet?
What if Flak had better anti air? 🤔
I love the thumbnail!
Mangs turns into Flanks
Where can i play this
More miniatures like this please
Up!
no drake today, pack your bags
SQUALL
that infantry/MD tank engagement was the most disappointing point of the match. I was here in my chair praying to Flak Jesus, but alas he did not deliver. sad days
who is "they see me rollin"?
I love how Olaf can summon a cold so fierce he literally frezzes enemy units alive. Drake wash his enemies away.. Sturm just summon a METEOR to blow his enemies up...
Then there is Flak. In his power he flex his strength. In his super power he gets very angry.
Love Flak
Campaign-accurate Flak gameplay.
The desperate counterattack that gave Mangs hope was beautiful! Threw everything available in the scramble for victory!
Mangs 2024: "I am winning" 14:50
Is 2k ahead in unit value, equal in unit count and 2k down in income, at the end of his turn
😂
So you plan to make exclusive AWBW account for FLAK?
Flak stealing Jugger's thunder. Give the bot some love too
I wanna see a tournament with only Flaks.