Forecast Update - April 26, 2024 - Significant Severe Weather Continues Today and Tomorrow
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- Опубліковано 11 чер 2024
- For educational purposes only. If you live in the affected areas, please stay tuned to your local National Weather Service office for the most accurate and up-to-date information.
Our well-advertised mutli-day severe weather sequence continues today (Friday, April 26) into this weekend.
TODAY (FRIDAY): A complex setup is expected to unfold across the Midwest and southern Plains. SPC has outlined an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) centered on the Nebraska/Iowa/Missouri/Kansas confluence. An arc of supercells is expected to fire ahead of the surface low with all hazards possible, including a strong tornado or two and very large hail. A more conditional risk exists farther south along the dryline; if a storm can fire, it would pose an all-hazards risk.
SATURDAY: A significant severe weather episode is expected across Kansas and Oklahoma in particular, where SPC has outlined an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5). Flow aloft has trended slightly more meridional, which may yield a messier storm mode, but all hazards are possible, including strong tornadoes and very large hail, with any more discrete, persistent supercells. The threat will shift east Sunday, but details are unclear.
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Contents
0:00 Introduction, risk areas
3:44 Discussion of today's setup
28:15 Discussion of Saturday's setup
39:25 Wrap-up - Наука та технологія
Came in clutch! I was wondering your opinion on today and Tomorrow! Thanks Trey!
Within the first minute I am already smarter than 90% of the American population. As always, "Thanks, Trey." You provide such an incredible and invaluable service to us all.
Thank you so much!
I’m living in Tulsa, OK Definitely staying locked in with the weather
We had a very strong qlcs move in around 5am and was woken up by tornado sirens and 70+ mph winds crazy morning today
Yeah, I’m really glad the weather chilled out near there yesterday..!!
Not necessarily looking forward to today..! 😬
Absolutely nailed today's forecast. You're the best.
Thank you!
Man, I had no idea that this Friday morning even had a chance for rain and im a weather hawk. I check the norman weather center forecast many times per day, i watch the jeststream forecast all the time too.
Im not a meteorologist, im trying to learn still at 34 years of living in Oklahoma. This Friday morning completely caught me off guard, i live near Pink and Tecumseh OK and work at the Grand Casino.
The storm woke me up, but i went to my 4warn app, i didn't see any reports of hail or winds.
It was loud and windy, but i didn't think it was that bad.
I just learned today how lucky i was, there was a tornado right before my house, then it another tornado on the other side. It was right when the tornado was trying to get its act together, and i got extremely lucky!
But im on my toes now. I seemed to have forgotten that its almost May. Just about Any severe storm can drop a tornado.
Were at a high risk for tomorrow. Good news is that everyone ive talked to is on high alert for tomorrow and Sunday too.
Hope everyone stays safe, and stay informed
Even with all those pesky flies making a mess out of the ointment you seem to be calling the situation pretty darn correctly so far...very impressive
Thank you!
Thank you again. Also wanted to mention that I love the resources available at CoD's weather site. I love pivotal weather, but I can't justify the subscription price at the moment. Having access to model runs and soundings with a decent interface is awesome.
I am a big CoD fan…I like the user interface and ease of use of CoD more than that of Pivotal, and like you, I just can’t justify subscribing to Pivotal.
Thanks Trey
Thanks for the update, it definitely helps a lot! Stay safe out there!
Thank you!
As always thank you Trey!
I'm only 9 minutes into this video watching it for the first time after the terrible storms have gone through Nebraska and Iowa, normally I watch your videos before, but so far, your readings were completely on point Trey.
I'm concerned that even today south of me is getting tornado warnings, and tomorrow the 10% is too close for comfort lol if today a 2% risk area has warnings I wonder what's to come... Hopefully not much
On a completely unrelated note, encourage everyone to check out the article the AP put out about “Twisters” & the director. Apparently all of us weather nerds are in good company - Steven Spielberg is a self-described tornado fanatic!
I have been on the edge of my seat waiting for this update. Thank you, Trey!
11:33am update. Nws now has an enhanced (level 3 out of 5) risk going down what i assume is gonna be the dryline from iowa, and eastern Nebraska, all the way down to east texas
Watching from KC, thanks for the update.
Thanks Trey!!
That tornado in Elkhorn ne I saw on twitter that is one of the scariest tornado footage I have ever seen thoughts and prayers for those who were impacted
Yeah, that one was intense
good listen and watch, thank you!
Thank you!
"A strong tornado or two" turned into 75+ tornadoes, most of them being strong. Still, amazingly accurate.
Nebraska is going nuts
I still think that a significant tornado event is still possible Saturday. Recent runs have shown several semi discrete supercells from the Red River Valley towards the Tulsa area. They do eventually get absorbed into the squall line, so there is a window of about 2-3 hours of some significant tornadoes. Hodographs still looking good with nice curvature in the low levels, CAPE in excess of 3,000 j/kg in some places, and a decently favorable storm mode all points to a significant tornado event. I still think it could change (and probably will) because CAMs always look crazy the day before but then look like crap the day of. We’ll see though.
Yeah, a significant tornado event is certainly on the table, just might not be as slam dunk as it looked a couple days ago.
I think there were a lot of disappointed chasers yesterday. Hopefully a better day today. Fingers crossed for some photogenic, out-in-a-field tornadoes!
I was one of those disappointed chasers. Looks like the odds of photogenic tornadoes are pretty solid today!
Did you see the Omaha NE tornado you should
@@GoofyGoob69 That looked crazy
@@ConvectiveChronicles You prob aren't disappointed anymore, today performed like a high end mdt risk to a high risk.
There were 99 tornadoes yesterday
Absolutely nailed this forecast
Thank you, great forecast, keeping an eye out here in Kansas this weekend
Thank you!
Today and tomorrow look to really cook hard. I was a bit surprised tomorrow failed so bad in Western KS to TX.....I think there is a sneaky fail mode with the Mexico wildfire smoke creeping in.
Today looks like a repeat of last week. Lack of Morning storms will EASILY clear out and man parameters looking good.....that morning Omaha sounding looks incredible and same with the Iowa ones this morning. The 0-1km look insane as hell....near top level curvature. A hybrid cold core and I swear people that go for Nebraska today will core huge.....chase the low for sure. Iowa is ok but that may be more tricky if it lines out....these storms around Iowa will be hard to keep up with but tornado chances today and hail look very good.
Tomorrow looking still stupidly nice.....though I can see the failure mode with the esrly convection for OK but I think the kinematics are too good to have it fail. He'll if it fails there then KS will be very much good to go.
Man, you guys called it. Its crazy over NE/Western IA. They are rolling towards DM, and I cannot be the only one hoping they go outflow dominant and settle down a bit. IT'S DARK, and that's no fun for no one. 💀
Great video Trey thanks for your thoughts on this event!!!! 😁
Thank you!
Trey this is nuts! How much energy is around d wow
i just got the tornado watch notification, i’m near dallas tx! thank you for the upload trey!
The rain they forecast didn't materialize this morning thanks to the strong cap
I'm just southeast of fort worth! Stay safe
Is the possible more messier mode the reason why the haven’t upgraded for tomorrow yet?
Yes, that is definitely one reason
Yay new update!
Hi Trey - I'm writing this on the morning of Saturday 4/27, so we all know how the 26th turned out... Question I have for you is on the meridional flow you mentioned as a negative for Saturday. I understand why that is a negative, but didn't meridional flow also exist on Friday? I imagine Friday that was overcome by the cold core low and the low-level shear, but I'm just curious why you called it out as a negative on Saturday but not on Friday so that I can understand for the future when I should or shouldn't be concerned about meridional flow.
It did, but the dryline was bent back a bit more to the northwest/west, making it favorable for discrete supercells. Today, the north-south dryline is the main initiating boundary, and it initially appeared that there would be pretty large parallel-ness between the dryline and shear vectors. Models this morning have trended away from that a bit, however.
Great video as always Trey. Much love from Louisiana 🤟🏻
Thank you so much!
@@ConvectiveChronicles how’s the chase going?? A ton of action today…
@@jasonbruskotter836 Got on the Elba, NE wedge and then got a separate tornado north of Columbus, NE later on. Not a bad day!
Honestly I’m a little surprised on no MDT pulled on the triple point there in Iowa/Nebraska, like that PS with really high 3CAPE/thick thermo profiles with a lot of vertical stretching/deep moisture and nice hodos, can’t really get any more ez with that “cheat code”. Spatial extent seems to be precluding that upgrade most likely.
Also, idk about you but I feel a MDT (any hazard driven) will be eventually warranted for tmrw (Saturday) pending future guidance
It does look like a pretty potent setup; I do think the enhanced is solid for both days given some of the flies in the ointment. Today looks like the more surefire bet for tornadoes, especially right on the sfc low
Upgraded to ten hatch for southern target!
Given the potency of this set up i wouldn't rule out lower risk areas over achieving
Good Luck
Thank you!
Good luck
Thank you!
For the meridional flow, could we suggest possibilities of overriding the weakness in the setup by something like subtle convergence zones, outflow boundary, or small scale left-right splits and mergers or potential lower level jet ramp up overtime? also is zonal flow as important in the plains as the south east, because I remember you mentioning once? @ConvectiveChronicles
It could be a southeast type setup where you have warm sector stuff that’s more discrete. Zonal flow is generally important in all locations, as it helps the shear vector orientation with respect to the initiating boundary.
Once. Just once I wanna see a 4-8 day horrific outlook that just gets more potent as the days wear on, and by day 1 is high risk lol. Like, no matter where you look in the high risk zone there will be a tornado there 😂
Okay maybe that's extreme but man it seems like everything ends up being kind of a let down lately
Ok, looks like I got my wish. Jesus Christ.
Yeah…these setups have been tricky
Again, I am curious if Sioux Falls to Winona may get an increased risk with future outlooks even today.
Doesn't appear likely
I didn’t watch this until about 345 CDT and I would say you definitely nailed it on the areas and their timing this afternoon!
Anyone know where that tornado near the OKC metro was last night (Friday)..? I’m just genuinely curious, not worried about strange or anything per se
Everyone stay safe this weekend !!
I had a feeling this setup might do some nasty stuff up in NE/IA.
Looks like last night’s tornado report in OKC occurred 4 mi WNW of Bethel Acres.
Bro I wasn't expecting a Wedge today in Ohama
IKR!?!😬
@@windwatcher11 Nvm we got 4 wedges insane!
Watching this event from KC has been stressful, we've been yanked in and out of the main tornado threat with literally every other outlook update (even though the "main" main threat was clearly north at the quad state intersection). Still in it for tomorrow, but hopefully storm mode shunts the sig tornado threat with eastward expanse.
Personally eyeballing a potential cold-core type play along I-70 in eastern CO tomorrow.
Certainly a possibility!
Really concerned about earlsboro oklahoma.
Threat has ended for today but keep an eye out tomorrow
Thank you for this video / we have had so much rain in Tulsa the last couple of nights and especially this this morning, the forecasters are very concerned about both flash flood and River flood /again thank you
Thank you! Flash flooding concerns will definitely continue through tomorrow
I know this is going to be an extremely busy time for for you and from what looks like the next week into next weekend, so I just have one question and will not ask anything for a while / originally this Saturday / Saturday night deal was supposed to end Sunday and now it looks like it’s going to be extended past Sunday even close to Sunday evening? The discussion here in Tulsa seems to be the flood threat, especially if it continues into Sunday / and then often on next week and just wondered what your thoughts were? Thanks
@@joseph-frankbrocchus6575 Severe risk will definitely extend into Sunday but it will be much less, and the greatest threat will be south of Tulsa. Flooding certainly will be exacerbated by today's event, and there could be some storm chances here and there going into next week, but it's unclear how that will play out right now.
The SPC knows 100 times more than I do and I have nothing, but the highest respect for those guy, but I do feel today should have been atleast a moderate risk in the NE area.
Hindsight is 20/20; I don’t know if anyone could’ve predicted this extent of violence.
I think today honestly is a better setup than tomorrow, even despite tomorrow’s synoptic analogs. Trough is lagging too far west tomorrow, and the warm sector is really messy
Not to mention also that we have the exact same issue as 5/20/19 on many model runs (stout 700mbar inversion builds back in after ~22z)
I'm not too concerned about trough timing tomorrow; I think the biggest issue is going to be storm mode.
Another Danger Bean. But this one has a uh.. appendage?
Storm reports for yesterday were pretty underwhelming, thankfully for those on the ground.
What's the limiting factors in Texas that Oklahoma doesn't have?
Apparently not much…didn’t expect all that convection down there today within the tornado watch area.
How does one read a hodograph exactly?
There is a playlist on his channel that goes over both Skew-T plots and hodographs.
I have a whole series on how to read skew-Ts and hodographs on my channel:
ua-cam.com/play/PLnjboQ2ku8GDI9DGcqR8d9sr0sZKhH-qX.html
Good luck I’ve been trying to figure it out for quite a while now. I’ve watched many videos and read many articles about it and I still don’t understand it
Today is def over performing
Coming back to this after the fact just in disbelief at the events that have occurred, will there be a post mortem of today’s high end tornado outbreak anytime soon?
Going to try, but I’m on tour so it might be difficult with such little free time
Todays risk for tornadoes mustve changed because on the tornado outlook on radaromega it showed dfw is in 2%
Apr 27th!!!!!!! Analysis.
Theres going to be people saying it should of been a high risk day
In omaha we have had cloudy wet and cold skies all morning.
That will clear soon and make way for a destabilizing atmosphere
I’m just waiting for one of these weather nerds to do something on the Omadome aka why do big winter and thunderstorms seem to go around or split and merge around Omaha
Looks like that changed today
I have a tornado question.
Is the Warm moist air Punching upwards, or is the Cold air Forcing its way down.
Or is the answer just Yes, both are equally providing the energy to create a tornado.
Because for some reason to me, it seems like its the heat that has the extra energy to do something. It's more excited, and the cold air is just in the wrong place at the wrong time haha 😆
Thats just how i picture it in my head.
The hot air is like the bad guy to me.
Hate living in Kansas 🙌🏻
👍
hrrr go burrrr