Pattern Change, Severe Weather Uptick Expected Next Week
Вставка
- Опубліковано 11 чер 2024
- For educational purposes only. If you live in the affected areas, please stay tuned to your local National Weather Service office for the most accurate and up-to-date information.
After a bit of a lull in robust severe weather across the US, a prolonged pattern change is expected to begin early next week. In this video, we'll discuss the current state of the atmosphere and why we've been in and will continue to be in a relative lull in severe weather before diving into next week's pattern change, which looks to feature persistent troughing across the western US acting upon rich low-level moisture, a classic combo for severe weather across the central US. We'll also give an update on how our tornado season forecast has gone so far.
Become a Patreon member today to support the channel: / convectivechronicles
Facebook: / convectivechronicles
X: / convchronicles
Instagram: / convectivechronicles
0:00 Introduction
2:01 Tornado data so far
5:26 Discussing our current stretch of low-end severe potential
15:11 Long-range model data, severe weather uptick next week - Наука та технологія
A tornado passed just to my south yesterday the 14th, it traveled along I-10 in Louisiana causing damage in Henderson La. I have a radar app on my laptop so I can follow the storms and warn my family as needed. Video's like yours help's me out a lot so many thanks.
That’s awesome to hear; glad you were able to warn your family ahead of time.
I have severe tornado anxiety. Well weather anxiety in general. We’ve had multiple hit Louisiana in the last few days. I found this post from Reddit and I’ve heard exposure to my dead can help and also learning about storms. This so far has helped me cope. Thank you so much for these videos.
So glad to hear that! Thank you!
We had a random tornado at a golf course in Hollister, MO, up my way yesterday. This year it seems tornadoes can fall out of anything at anytime.
Yeah, North Alabama going from a 2% to 14 confirmed tornadoes in the course of a day was definitely unexpected last week
I saw that! Crazy stuff
It's definitely been an above average year. SE Kansas and SW Missouri had been pretty quiet since 2019. Before that it had been quiet since 2011, 2003 before that. I kind of wondered if we were due for one of those years.
Thanks, Trey. Gives everyone a little time to check the tires and equipment, then dive into next week. 🤙
Thanks for keeping me in the loop. I greatly appreciate what you do.
Thank you so much!
HE'S BACK
Great info and much appreciated, as always. Looking forward to watching this unfold over the next 10 days!
Thank you! Should be quite the interesting stretch!
we have been hammered with these wind bags the last 10 days here in Mississippi. Hopefully after Thursday and Friday we can get a break
Any time there is a severe weather risk i always go to your channel to see what your thoughts and opinions are on that severe weather risk. So for that thx you very much ❤
Thank you so much!
It has been so tiring with all of these severe weather risks. It feels like it's never-ending anymore. I wish that it would take a long break and let us all breathe.
Thanks for the update bro I’ll have to watch it on my lunch break
My excitement can no longer be contained 🤩🤩🤩🤩🤩🤩
See you soon!!! Going to be a blast of a tour!
That 2 week outbreak sequence had over 300 tornadoes and 2 different outbreaks that had over 130 tornaodes 😮😮 is it fair to call that a super sequence?
Probably not a super outbreak, but it certainly was a fruitful sequence tornado-wise
Thanks for this, well done 👍 👍👍
Thank you!
NIU was showing more robust threats as well, with areas in the TX panhandle, central and southeastern OK being prime targets
Thank you, Trey! We appreciate all that you do! 🫶🏼
Fantastic Video ❤
Thank you!
Trey you have no clue how important these videos are to me! Went through all of you skew t and holograph video series several times over a year ago and I noticed how you didn't post many forecasts...lately you have and I hang on every one with ur wisdom. Over the last fee weeks your "flies in the ointment" have come to fruition...over-par from SPC analysis for each day. I crave these videos knowing I'll get better info than what's publicity available lol
Thank you so much for the kind words!
I completely agree. You make a forecast that is both informative and interesting. I've watched most of your videos, this is hidden gem of a channel that I'll cherish. Not even the nws goes that in depth, and you make it easy to understand for someone who is interested in meteorology :D Hope you have a great week Trey.
@@appsaucetech Thank you very much! I really appreciate that! Have a great week, as well!
We're currently at Halftime for the SupercellBowl. The halftime show was performed by Lady Aurora
I predicted this in December 2023!! Wow!
Now my next predictions is the above average hurricane season and see how these land falling tornadoes supercharge the tornado count
Yesterday was crazy if you worked in the travel industry. 2 planes were 15 min away from the Houston Bush Airport and they got struck by lightning (everyone was unharmed albeit shaken up). Lightning actually struck the runway of Houston Hobby airport and pit a hole in it. 🌩
Dang!
"Storm chaser's paradise" - words I like to hear!
As a wannabe weather-nerd, I'm excited about next week. As a gardener and human who hates when storms cause harm, I am concerned about next week. There's a chance my Midwestern state gets round after round of tornadic storms, who knows? Anyways, thanks for the synopsis!
Thanks so much for the video. As a current meteorology student seeing how you recognize patterns totally improves my forecasting abilities. I just had a quick question: What are some benefits of using the NAM for severe weather forecasting?
That’s awesome to hear! It’s more a personal preference; I like using the NAM for short-range forecasting. It tends to do well with placement of frontal boundaries, particularly cold fronts (even if it does have a slight westward bias). Except for the surface, it also seems to have a decent handle on thermodynamics, better than other models like the GFS.
I don't think we're done with tornado season yet. I had a dream this morning that a "wall of cloud" hit somewhere in Oklahoma. I saw it from above like it was a curtain. El Reno from 2013 and Joplin 2011 were walls of cloud bearing down. Then I remembered the term mesocyclone.
Do you have a video of the Hollister OK supercell that produced the big tornado + anticyclonic tornado? Thanks Trey
It’s in the works, I just haven’t had time yet because of my tour schedule
@@ConvectiveChronicles take your time sir I’m a patient man
I'm thinking I might end up splitting my vacation time. See what I can't catch out of this coming week's troughing, and then hoping we have a decent stretch hit the High Plains in June. See if some Colorado Magic shows up.
Great video Trey 💯😀 also you thinking dixe outbreak next week
Thank you! No, not seeing a big Southeast threat yet. Would suspect more of a central US threat given the west coast troughing
We don't need anymore here in central area but I guess the weather decides@@ConvectiveChronicles
no tornadoes, but big straight-line wind damage in downtown houston last night (thurs may 16)
Looks like there was a tornado in Cypress along with the big straight-line winds in downtown Houston
2024 doesn't give up on tornadoes, the way it's looking you could easily see a brief spin up on these three days. Looks like Gulf is srtu for another event. Once again, enjoy your discussions Trey, you inspire me and have helped me a lot on soundings!
Thank you so much! That’s awesome!
Yet still another great video / I had a question about summer, many of the storms in Tulsa during that time I have read, r referred to as the “ NorthWest Flow” // they form in eastern Colorado, Western Nebraska & Kansas, move east and then southeast and arrive where I live either very late at night or early in the morning // they are loud, noisy and have a lot of rain / I remember July 1994, rain for the month was 12 or 13 inches // is that some sort of a jetstream pattern ? Thanks.
Thank you! Yes, northwest flow is exactly what its name suggests: the flow aloft is out of the northwest, allowing storms to dive southeast. This happens a lot in the Midwest in the summer, but it can also happen in the Plains.
@@ConvectiveChronicles
Thanks for always taking the time to answer questions
You nailed the severe weather forecast a couple months ago! You expect it to be active going though summer?
I’m definitely happy with how the forecast has gone so far! Tough to know for sure about summer; there are some signs that the western half of the US might be quite dry. We’ll have to see how that factors into things. Maybe a continued Midwest threat?
@@ConvectiveChronicles yeah, because I live in the Midwest/ Great Lakes area. I know we get derecho events over here, but thank you
Hey trey, I would like to a see a video on the barnstall ef4. Back in 2021 is when i started getting into tornadoes and the meotorology behind the. I remember just watching the radar and seeing the debris ball, not knowing what it was. Now that I know more, I understand just what exactly that means. Recently I remember just watching the barnstall cell and how large the debris ball was, and it reminded me of the rolling fork monster. I'd find a deep dive of the meteorology interesting as it was expected tornado outbreak with a hatched high risk but storms didn't act as expected.
A deep dive on that day is happening, just might be a little while due to my tour schedule
I understand completely lol. My schedule this summer is packed.
So you might get some sleep ... it was insane for a while there 😮
I'm sure there would be a northern advance of severe weather, but also the importance of the sub tropical jet is really necessary amongst potentially larger and more significant plains weather and if we can hold it for just long enough before the sharp El Nino, La Nina transition occurs, and that east pacific oscillation maintains negative for more troughing we could see another true sequence period between may 22 to early june potential, but its in the delicate balance; for sure, it probably will be overturned somewhere in june @ConvectiveChronicles
Need rain in a bad way in West Texas
Trey. Sir. I needed my emotional support meteorologist yesterday as I was trying to figure out how the baroclinic boundary was relevant to storm severity when we were under enhanced risk. I told my husband "In meteorologic terms, I need an adult, I'm going to see if Trey, Ross Whitley or James Spann posted anything" 😂. That MCS had an absolutely WICKED wind field. My anemometer registered 76mph gusts.
Hahaha “emotional support meteorologist,” I love that! That MCS definitely did pack a punch; lots of intense straight-line winds in there, with some spinups
Think the tornado threat would continue to stay low in central TX on thursday or is it likely to change?
It seems like it’ll remain a low tornado threat given limited low-level response
I’m more worried about next week tornado threat here in central Texas.😬😭
@@Valarie834 Just too early to know specifics at this point.
Unfortunately a downtick in severe means a downtick in Trey videos. Will be interested to see the potential pattern change.
thoughts on November/December severe weather wise
Far too early to tell
Truly so far a historic tornado season as I believe we are currently #3 all time for number of tornadoes in a season up to this point. Little quiet I guess but we still been seeing a spotty mix of tornadoes even in this quiet time. The plains have really roared back as expected on this pattern transition year to LA Nina but the Ohion River Valley popping off like it has been is something we have not seen in YYYYEEEARRRS. Last many years Dixie Alley stole the show but I am not sure if we will see it activate this Spring anymore....may need to wait till the 2nd season in October-November to see that.
Ensemble are showing something interesting for late May and a good resurgence with ridging in the East here and roughing coming back in the plains and there is your classic end of May and Early June set up. We will see what happens but Trey I am sure your tour group this turn is like "yes please plains....please activate so we may see some stuff." 🙏
Hehe we will see. All I know is the analog for June are gonna be 5050 especially by the 14-19th June when I and my 2 friends go. Either stuff will shut down with La Nina coming in so fast or it will hold on enough to gift the plains and SW something till July when stuff may really shut down in a classic LA Nina fashion.
Oh wow I knew it's been busy but I didn't realize that, and we have gotten most of that in the last couple weeks alone too
Dude as someone who lives in central Ohio. This is an unsettling trend. I have been under a tornado warning damn near every week since late February. I have had two funnel clouds form around my house. Pleading with it not to drop lol. The empty plains can take more action.
@@sos2530 we aren't empty though. There's millions of people here. And we have had a ton of severe weather lately ourselves
Will it ever storm in MN again? It's been 84 years...
2024 Treydocast verifying.
Late May enjoyers.
Desperately needing some tornado potential in DFW area.
Let’s hope it stays out of the metro and in open lands outside the city
@@ConvectiveChronicles as someone "in the open lands outside the city" it can stay far away, thanks. 😂
@@ConvectiveChroniclesfor sure, I guess I should say within reasonable driving distance
@@Ithaca-vv5dy but for real, the lack of activity around DFW has been surprising.
No thank you lol
New chrome available
That mean line on the annual LSR reports chart should not be taken as a historical average.
It’s about as good as we’re going to get. Can be thought of as a modern average, since tornado counts were severely underestimated until a couple decades ago.
I wonder how June is going to be like or july😬😬🌩🌪🌬😯🫣
We shall see!