Forecast Discussion - April 15, 2024 - Multi-Day Severe Weather Outbreak Begins Today
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- Опубліковано 1 чер 2024
- For educational purposes only. If you live in the affected areas, please stay tuned to your local National Weather Service office for the most accurate and up-to-date information.
An outbreak of severe weather is expected to begin today across the Plains before shifting east into the Midwest/Mid-South tomorrow and Wednesday. The SPC has outlined an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) across southern South Dakota and much of Nebraska down into western Kansas. Supercells are expected to fire in multiple areas by early evening, including ahead of the surface low/along the warm front and along the dryline. Very large hail is possible, and an intense low-level jet will yield a strong tornado threat with any discrete supercells from central Nebraska into southwest Kansas.
The threat shifts east on Tuesday; the SPC has outlined an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) for parts of Iowa, Missouri, and Illinois. As long as destabilization and storm mode cooperate, supercells with very large hail and tornadoes, perhaps strong, are possible in this area. A separate area of severe storms may occur along the stalled Pacific front across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. What happens on Tuesday will modulate what happens on Wednesday, but severe storms are possible on Wednesday across Indiana, Ohio, Kentucky, and a small sliver of Tennessee.
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Contents
0:00 Introduction
3:37 Current observations
11:49 Discussion of today's setup
33:49 Discussion of Tuesday's setup
45:06 Discussion of Wednesday's setup
47:11 Wrap-up - Наука та технологія
Man, you and Reed said that the nose of the instability was the place to be 3 days ago. And now look where the target is. Great work as usual
Thank you!
@Girldev that is not until Wednesday. You also only have a slight risk
Yeah, they are good!
Hopefully it doesn’t get too bad in extreme Northern Illinois,I’m right on the edge
@@Girldevgenuine question can you read maps?
I'm in Manhattan Kansas and the air feels so soupy today. Loaded gun weather
Air feels very thick and humid here in central Kansas.
Dewpoints are in the low 30s, high 20s in the very western part of the state. Really strong dryline coming through.
@@LoneWolf343 dew point up to 65 surface temp 80 where I am. Lots of cloud cover though
Every time I watch and listen to Trey...I am quickly reminded of how little I know...thanks for all you do brother
I'm a little NW of Wichita and its got a funky feel outside today for sure. Thanks for the update!
Thanks Trey! My go to for the specifics
Here in okc feels like a severe weather day: 72° temp, 67° dew point making it feel sticky out i heard our timeline is 1am-7am which is kinda dangerous
Just as you say that, HRRR very much catching onto that SW KS initiation!
Thanks Trey. So glad I clicked the notification bell. Great job.
Thank you!
A great forecast breakdown as always!
Thank you!
Great video Trey thanks for your thoughts on this event and I got a feeling this is the one that's going to break the long streak of difficult forecast and 10% hatched Risk not producing and or doing well
Thank you! I agree
Glad we can agree and your welcome and also SPC added a tiny enhanced risk Virginia did you see that yet ???@@ConvectiveChronicles
Thanks Trey
Hopefully, this will hold off until i get off work tomorrow 😩. I hate to miss an almost slam dunk chase opportunity. I'm hoping anything that drops stays super rural and doesn't bother anyone. No more mass-casualty events at St Luke's, please! 😳
Edit: Thanks Trey, awesome discussion! Brilliant as usual.😊
Thank you! I agree; open field tornadoes are the best tornadoes!
i think the words "i can't wait for the convective chronicles video about this" left my mouth more than once. i always feel like i learn a lot watching your videos. :) thanks, trey!
Thank you!!
Thanks for doing these. I usually read the discussion on the SPC outlook when I'm in an area of concern, but it doesn't go nearly as in depth. I'm just east of DSM so I'll be watching tomorrow
Let's go! Thanks Trey!
Im i Alva, Oklahoma...only 15 miles from the kansas border. Feeling every bit of heavy atmosphere!
In omaha, and my parents are a little south of des moines so hoping to see some stuff from afar but not on top of us 🤞
Trey always coming in with the solid forecast.
As expected this is gonna be the significant event that was hinting a few days ago. Man the hail is gonna be nuts and the tornado risk is gonna be pretty much just a good I think. These brrroooad 5% usually over-perform well but Tuesday.....that's the day to really eye on.
Actually I think both days will be pretty good tornado producers overall. I get models were kind of being strange on this but the dew points are well in place for something to go pretty substantial in KS tonight and NE. Pretty sure we will see a decent tornado outbreak on both days.....actually even Wednesday is trending to be a pretty hot day for all hazards again in the OH River Valley. This truly is trending to be an unreal April-June. It's actually amazing how much discrete potential the models are now showing next 2 days. This has actually he best chance so far to see very strong and powerful tornadoes so far and honestly....all the boxes are in place for it.
I will also not be surprised is this ceiling for today is a poor man's April 2012.
First! Thanks for this Trey!
Thank you Trey for being so informative. Beyond the forecasting, I learned a few new weather things from you.. Subscribed :o)
Thank you so much!
Grey start here in SE OK.
Glad I watered yesterday...looking like my rain may not even make it.
Yeah, the cloud cover over OK may stifle things until the Pacific front takes over later tonight.
Reminds me a lot of 4/19/23 with the last minute model initiation
Agreed! Also seeing a lot of 5-17-19 in today’s setup.
How much do the HRRR and other models use analogs like the dates you have mentioned when they are generating a new run?
@@PartlyDeaf I don't really think analogs are part of the model schemes themselves, but they can spit out analogs as they're running (e.g. the Sounding Analog on the model soundings)
It's been quite disappointing the last couple of days when it comes to severe weather. (besides the severe weather day in Louisiana)
Let's just hope that it will be a bit more 'interesting' this time.
Thanks for the discussion Trey!
Here in kennedale tx at 10:40am central the temp is 72, dewpoint is 68, and wind 10mph from the sse
Ugh I’m sick of nocturnal tornadoes
Yeah, there have been a lot this year
Hey, I watched through the video. Most of it is far over my head. In the HRRR on Tuesday, there seems to be a quick and strong spin up near Little Rock, AR. Do you think that will be accurate? I've got interpreters going home around that time and I've been trying to decide if we need to let them go home early.
I wouldn’t put too much stock in the HRRR more than a few hours away from an event. Still, be prepared for scattered severe storms with an all hazards risk.
71.5F/62DP @ 1027L at my house in far NW KCK. It can certainly be felt, but does seem thin.
thank you for the in depth analysis! Living in grand island in the most unsafe type of makeshift home (you can probably guess) makes me quite nervous but this definitely helps to understand!
Do you have a safe place if things get bad?
@@kristinafulton5334 yep will be staying somewhere else tonight haha
Your videos are always so awesome!
Not sure about this one. My target area is Eastern IA/Western IL. I am a little apprehensive about chasing given that I chased the mod risk area South Indy into Ohio a little bit ago. That was a bust. I always do my own forecasting but didn't for that one and trusted the models.
Also, forecast hodographs aren't very impressive.
Thank you! Yeah, I think there are a lot of issues with the setup: morning convection, early initiation, etc. Probably will be a few tornadoes but I don’t see a widespread event.
I'm in northern Oklahoma. After twenty years living in this state, I've learned to pay attention to how the air feels. It's got the feel to it today and I haven't felt that in a long time.
Got any leaves on your trees? We always get antsy when the leaves appear to turn upside down up here in Ohio.
@@darrencook731 my grandmother always said to watch for the leaves turning inside out! I've seen that be right more often than not 🤎
Hey Trey, considering the busy weather patterns lately I don't expect you to do this atm but would you be able to cover European tornadoes? Like June 24, 2021 in Czechia
I’ve been asked about doing international events before; the problem is that I don’t know of a data archive that would have all the necessary data. If you have any leads, let me know, and we can start doing some international case studies!
@@ConvectiveChroniclesDidn't get notified of your response, but yeah I was thinking about where you will get the data. European events are interesting, and I'd love to see them done but there's a lack of data, radar with velocity or cc in most worldwide areas. I will try my best to find leads, but historical data I'm not really sure if I can despite my research skills. I'll do a bit of searching soon
In your last video you made a comparison to the 2007 Greensburg supercell. In which any tornadoes that may be discrete before nocturnal cooling could become significant. What are the chances of that occurring since we’re closer to storm initiation?
Chances have increased since the last video. Obviously, Greensburg is an incredibly high end event, so it’s unlikely that anything like that happens, but be prepared regardless.
@@ConvectiveChronicles thanks for the reply. Are there any similar events to todays that occurred during any of the analog years you highlighted?
@@lordlobster3793 Yesterday was unique; I can't really think of any specific analogs off the top of my head
4000 surface cape north central
Kansas
Trey Here!
Kind figured they move north with this and 3000 cape it might pop off I think more tomorrow. They also updated enhanced for Virginia area no tornado threat tho
Yeah, it’s for damaging winds out there
Just 3500 surface cap in Kansas….500 Jules in a hour ? Bad or good ?
That is good for maintaining the severe threat
Yikes. Close friends in Concordia KS. I don’t like the look of this.
Yeah, hopefully they’re prepared
3000 surface cape in Kansas and Nebraska
How about a squall line in northern Ohio on Wednesday?
Too early to know for sure; we’ll know more as we see Tuesday play out
Moderate for tuesday?
Seems unlikely given concerns over morning convection, destabilization, and storm mode, but it’s not off the table
When Trey, drops a weather video 🎉
Dayton Ohio for Thursday-weekend, any ideas what it might be? I know that's a long way off. We have a big group of kids who will be raveling there, so just checking to see. Keep up the great work! :-)
Thank you! Dayton is not currently in a risk but it could be at some point, especially for Wednesday. Would mainly be a large hail and wind risk.
@@ConvectiveChronicles You/re the best! Thank you!
Yeah Trey, nothing happening
Event is just getting started; the environment will only get more favorable from here
@@ConvectiveChronicles ok gotta stay awake, whiskey and baseball and tornadoes
@@ConvectiveChronicles and why is that ?
🎉
Trey to the NAM: I’m just not buying it 🧐
Is it my imagination or have nighttime events predominated so far this season? Frustrating for chasers and not great from a public safety standpoint.
Yeah, sometimes that trend of nocturnal events dominates for awhile…hopefully we’ll get away from these nighttime events soon.
Lord please let this severe weather pass!! I decree and declare no bad weather! No deaths no harm no loss in the name of Jesus!! It will be well!!! I declare it done!!! Amen ✝️🙏‼️‼️‼️
Repent of your sins and turn to Jesus Christ today! He is returning soon! REPENT REPENT REPENT ✝️‼️ Jesus LOVES you all! HALLELUJAH‼️ 🙏