Відео

ua-cam.com/video/Z79MDYvUB34/v-deo.html

How much production is left in the bakken tier one ? Chord and enerplus just merged in the bakken for a couple of billion dollars So I'm assuming there's money to be made 🤷‍♀️

If Israel b:mbs Iranian oil Will this all just turn into a wash and price stays same?

A very minor comment, Ratcliffe-on-Soar Power Station is in neighbouring Nottinghamshire, not Lincolnshire. Cheers

Now that USA jobs booming and uk inflation energy etc ticking up what you think of interest rates will still go down a lot?

Great show

Very good thanks. UK REITs are great but the 20% WHT is not. I invest in a couple of REITs that profess a 6% yield. Take 20% off and it is no longer 6% .,.... Look at tax-free SGX REITs..

Keith, a couple of comments. The OPEC forecasts don't seem to account for the resulting supply increase whereas the IEA forecasts do, so not sure they are apples to apples? But at any rate, isn't OPEC saying they have room to taper their cuts? Saudi tend to be flexible, and there are dependable (non-perma bull!) analysts out there who don't think they want to kill the oil price. Also, you single out chinese demand which is of course hugely relevant but isn't it already in the forecasts? The chinese tend to play around with inventories BTW, arbing the oil price within the recent range, which I think can fool some watchers. And they have recently begun a huge stimulus programme of course. You also say supply and demand is currently in balance, but we keep seeing large draws in the US. And on top of that I hear the market has taken a historically large short position, larger than during the Covid collapse. Finally, there's a very important US election in November and during the run-up my feeling is that various "optics", and even the market itself, is likely to be managed somewhat.

How to buy Petrofac shares

I think the secret to making money is ignore macro, look at micro, buy at ok value, and always always always have a bullish frame of mind

Great overview of REITS; thanks. Still a glutton for punishment (on the IR reversion thesis for them) or could this be the winner? Certainly these are real assets serving a useful purpose discounted by changes in the discount factor which "must" change/improve. I will look at these next year when the stock market has gotten "really" overvalued but worth a dabble for income! 😆

interesting Keith .... by the way, fancy a coffee in NW3 when you are around ? Am WFH so always here !

Very good thanks. If you look at AIM, there probably never has been much opportunity in the old sector - over the years I have invested in about 10 oil speculations ('for fun') and most all went bust (effectively) - remember that "sure thing" in the Bahamas etc etc? My final holding - COPL - is down a mere 99.999% - I don't sell it because the dealing costs are higher than the proceeds.... Harbour = Premier Oil. Another (bigger) oil slick, despite being a producer.

With precious metals setting record highs and still rising, I would love a video on the gold and silver markets along with any miners you guys have on your radar. (Hochschild Mining, maybe 😂)

Great overview. Risk and uncertainty is in Demand in my view (Supply will follow price).

Do you think Chinese cars are a contrarian play now that all rhetoric is China is uninvestable

Great deep dive, not sure world trade tariff charts relevant this time because this time around USA doing it from a position of strength and targeted mostly at China this time

One point on the Chat GPT numbers are most people who are using it for work or development now use the API or Azure hosted version. They wont be included in those numbers.

"Something's going on with the Chinese Economy".... Xi Jinping is going on with the Chinese Economy. It's bad to get rich. Ergo noone will try to get rich!

Very good thanks. Still not sold on these renewable funds. The few I bought did absolutely nothing despite all their blah blah blah of social good at profit and some I did not buy (GRID, GSF, IPX) totally collapsed. These guys generally don't make sizeable, if any, profits from activity and instead live on social goodwill and subsidies. Maybe some day some one will decide that they are not the way forward and simply stop the subsidies. Reits? Home Reit is a good example of goodwill turned bad. Home was into social housing (clap, clap....) - unfortunately the very respectable looking, well spoken and well educated management team were either totally incompetent or totally fraudulent. The reit went bankrupt and its remains now face a shareholder class action. Caveat emptor.

Have you heard the phrase bears sound clever but bulls make money

I agree nvidea might not be as high in the future. But your thesis is incorrect about competition because it’s by beating competitors is how they got to where they are so can’t be their downfall

I’m no technical analyst but why can’t there be a triple top

Apart from guilts and bonds what else are you looking at when buying into yield

Another interesting episode- thank you

yes please make it a little shorter thats a good idea :) and its not at all critics of your great content - but listening 2 hours with high intensity ... you really have to have or take the time for it .. so ...like 1h30 would be perfect maybe :)

"France doesn't have a government". Good news, the less meddling in markets the better! Good segment on US Housing, general lessons too (if I could discern what they were!). Thanks.

Time for a second video? Currently 2:1 gold to silver miner going back to 50:50 with palacanta permit around 2027. 90% of rare earth mine demerged. (Acalra resources) Cost projected to fall on flagship mine (inmacalada). New brazil gold mine (mara rosa) came online early this year, expected 90-100k per year @ $1000 aisc Volcan project - entity listed in canada with the intention to sell/raise Argentina, mine aisc expected to fall as currency stabilises New low-cost project purchased in brazil (monte carmo) potential 100k au per year

This is a great Weekly, thank you. Especially sections on the Carry Trade (and unwinding) and AI (dispassionate views). I think JPMs estimate that 75% of the trade has unwound is not credible. The rate of unwinding may have peaked but that doesn't mean that there will not be further sell-downs as asset prices rally and position holders sell-down. (AI getting more expensive? Hint, buy one company, sell the rest!!)

Content is superb, delivery is high quality and the presenters are knowledgeable.

Love this show

47:49 Regarding "Technical analysis" or "Graph decoration" as I call it, I'd recommend the book Evidence-Based Technical Analysis by Aronson (link below). It examines the evidence behind various "patterns" (like head-n-shoulder) and there is none. If you look at this guy's old forecasts you'll probably find that he has never been right all the time and has revised his forecasts. Especially Elliot Wave (wave counting) is treacherous since it is both subjective and fractal and has freedom enough to decorate any graph, even coast lines. It is an example of a "theory" that has no falsification condition (tells what must *not* happen for the theory to be true). Darwinism, for instance, has the suggested falsification condition of a pre-Cambrian rabbit. If someone finds one, the theory is wrong. But it hasn't happened, so the theory is accepted the best explanation and qualifies as a theory because of its falsifiability (Popper's term). There is therefore no essential difference between EW and horoscope even if EW may *appear* "advanced" and "structured". www.amazon.com/Evidence-Based-Technical-Analysis-Scientific-Statistical/dp/0470008741

Finally it might come your way ! This move is all job related… as soon as I am in the hot seat in NW3 it goes t1ts up !!! Merde !!

Much appreciated, glad you squeezed one in as it was an interesting week, get a quality bottle of red and think the exit may be in sight for this trade, at least you may be able to adjust size so as to be able to take other opportunities that present themselves.

Hi chaps, If you were already a profitable/cashflow positive gold mining company, then if the gold price goes up in line with your costs (in % terms) your cashflow and profits rise in real terms - this is the rationale behind investing in gold miners vs investing in the commodity? It also opens up the viability of more marginal deposits, meaning companies can potentially expand production and benefit from economies of scale to keep overall costs under control when individual components of costs are increasing - you can keep your AISC under control with higher throughput. I think is what Richard was trying to convey? We've seen the gold price up 20% in the last 6 months and the junior gold mining index (often lagging the majors) up 33%, for example (leverage). I would expect to see this trend continue as earnings reports come out. That's where some of my money is taking the 'gamble' anyway!

03:20"In particular he (Trump) will attempt to politicize the civil service and that would be very bad for US democracy" First of all, Trump refers to Federal employed activists/leftists that he wants to fire, so he wants to loosen their employment protection. So it will be bad for US communism, no doubt. You equal communism with democracy, which is not very odd for communists. I wonder why filling all Federal positions with left activists was not undemocratic when the Democrats did it. Why only when Trump wants to remove them to make authorities work again? Removing activists from authorities is rather unpoliticising them. Furthermore, what is it called to import 5 milijon poor migrants from South/Central America where it's known that at least 70% vote left? Democracy? And what is it called if those migrants are deported to the primitive and 3rd world countries they came from? A threat to democracy?😅 Your "analysis" bears the intellect of communist. "It's only OK when we do it!!!!!!" 😂

01:10 "Kamala Harris has closed the gap. Donald Trump is still ahead in the polls. Be afraid." Yeah, marxist Kamala must win and continue the "green" revolution with wheather dependent energy and the population replacement where white capitalitic Americans become a minority in the US, like they became in California, by importing 5 million "refugees" per year from South n Central America that vote left to 70%. Yeah, be very afraid if communism does'nt win.

Appreciated as always

if central bank interest rate increases lead to greater payments on fiscal deficit than a reduction in private sector credit creation and corporate bond issuance then rate rises have a reduced impact on controlling inflation long term, possibly why long bond yields aren't dropping and may be a bad bet in a stagflationary environment ?? middle class americans fixed for 30 years so i suspect thats why the transmission mechanism hasnt been as fast!

Re Japanese property, it’s a tale of 2 markets. In the countryside and towns you’re right, depopulation, low wages, low wealth leads to very weak property prices (can even be negative!). In Tokyo, Osaka etc there’s higher wealth, higher salaries and international buyers looking to buy real assets to protect from depreciating currency (and possible risk of inflation).

Just to also add I really enjoy the one-off type shows you do such as "my worst trade" and your experiences in Angel Investing.

Just to say thanks for the work you do to produce this most weeks. Must watch for me. Also, I'm very much in favour of Simon doing a weekly segment.

Great vid! Better than many others in explaining the maths

Great piece of work thank you

so your next pub night at northwich then , become part of the cheshire set ,you know you want to😀

enjoy norway keith!

On Silver, to reduce risk in any speculative silver miners, could also use a covered call strategy. eg. buy 100 shares in exk, (500$) sell 1 7% otm 2 week call, get 2.5$. Losing you 10-70% upside above 7% over a 2 week timeframe if you're not stopped out, but potentially generating 12.5% per annum. Not something i'm interested in myself, but I know some use this strategy to 'sell premium' in high volatility meme stocks. exk looks like a short squeeze to me but looking at it has only taken 5 minutes.....

Looked through your archives, and great call buying colonial coal and holding for 5 years. We're in year 3 and things are looking up.

Would be good to see a video on gms as they seem to have turned things around.

There were a couple of SCOTUS decisions this week that bear heavily on economic conditions: 1. EPA "Good Neighbour" Rule blocked 2. The Chevron doctrine has been struck down; rescinding the power of regulators to allow lower courts to uphold regulators' interpretations of statute as long as it was reasonable. The second has significant consequences economically. "The best model for an economy is the economy". This is the truth. Applies to all unique structures physical and organisational.