You took up boxing?????? Boston is the last of the big 6 for me and I am finding the training increasingly tedious. I am definitely going to take a while off after this one.
Keith, I think you shouldn't bail on gilts just yet. UK inflation will fall over the next few months, employment, house prices and wages are creaking a bit. The lower energy bills from lower gas prices and all this wind has yet to take effect. What I don't really understand is why UK gilts seem to just follow US treasury rates.
Hi Jeff, I completely agree with your comments. The reality is that I was way too over confident in putting this trade on and was too overweight. As the trade has gone against me I was already at max allocation. I have now cut back to very heavily overweight from idiotically overweight. I need to see the trend going my way before adding more again. This was meant to be a cyclical trade, if the cycle finally turns there is plenty of upside
Good question, and I think that you are right. Lower demand for EV's means the energy transition will be slower or will not happen at all. That means oil demand will stay higher for longer. Bullish oil long term. Sorry for the delay in replying. I took a complete break from the markets while I was in Boston, but now back. I will be recording the weekly as usual tomorrow.
Ah and btw: Richard, you´re a real friend to Keith. One can feel that every second of that podcast. Very emphatic. It´s hard to make great profits and see a friend suffering ... Keith: enjoy Boston :)
THanks Miles. I have finally come to the decision that my long duration bond trade is not working and will cut the position next week thereby reducing my risk. I will discuss in the next weekly. Many thanks for your support.
Keith, I am sorry for you of course, but hey .. you actually haven´t lost that much - its just others making money at the moment. Difficult to give you advice right now actually, but commodities are rising again and we might be at the low of a first inflation wave with the second inflation wave kicking up later this year? Also don´t forget that the UK, Europe and the US are effectively paying a war and that does come with a lot of costs = need for more state debt = no room for lower interests? The only thing I would recommend to you is to look if you can find BETTER investments with lower risk or more conviction than the one you have. Sometimes changing a well-researched investment-idea to a better alternative helps to say "good-bye" to an idea that has become a conviction but apparently (for no reason?) doesn´t work ... but of course ... just my ideas after some wine ... you might be just right and this might be the worst moment to sell ... as for me, I just entered the Palladium space ...
Much appreciated as always
Very good thanks.
Good luck with the marathon.....!! I gave up that stuff years ago due to my failing joints. And then took up boxing...
You took up boxing?????? Boston is the last of the big 6 for me and I am finding the training increasingly tedious. I am definitely going to take a while off after this one.
would be interesting to hear which precious metals / copper equities he holds.
Keith, I think you shouldn't bail on gilts just yet. UK inflation will fall over the next few months, employment, house prices and wages are creaking a bit. The lower energy bills from lower gas prices and all this wind has yet to take effect. What I don't really understand is why UK gilts seem to just follow US treasury rates.
Hi Jeff, I completely agree with your comments. The reality is that I was way too over confident in putting this trade on and was too overweight. As the trade has gone against me I was already at max allocation. I have now cut back to very heavily overweight from idiotically overweight. I need to see the trend going my way before adding more again. This was meant to be a cyclical trade, if the cycle finally turns there is plenty of upside
4:49 Do you have any opinion if the slow-down in EV adoption means increased demand for ICE? Could be good for PGMs and oil.
Good question, and I think that you are right. Lower demand for EV's means the energy transition will be slower or will not happen at all. That means oil demand will stay higher for longer. Bullish oil long term. Sorry for the delay in replying. I took a complete break from the markets while I was in Boston, but now back. I will be recording the weekly as usual tomorrow.
Ah and btw: Richard, you´re a real friend to Keith. One can feel that every second of that podcast. Very emphatic. It´s hard to make great profits and see a friend suffering ... Keith: enjoy Boston :)
THanks Miles. I have finally come to the decision that my long duration bond trade is not working and will cut the position next week thereby reducing my risk. I will discuss in the next weekly. Many thanks for your support.
Good stuff on productivity.... Buy Nvidia 😂
Keith, I am sorry for you of course, but hey .. you actually haven´t lost that much - its just others making money at the moment. Difficult to give you advice right now actually, but commodities are rising again and we might be at the low of a first inflation wave with the second inflation wave kicking up later this year? Also don´t forget that the UK, Europe and the US are effectively paying a war and that does come with a lot of costs = need for more state debt = no room for lower interests? The only thing I would recommend to you is to look if you can find BETTER investments with lower risk or more conviction than the one you have. Sometimes changing a well-researched investment-idea to a better alternative helps to say "good-bye" to an idea that has become a conviction but apparently (for no reason?) doesn´t work ... but of course ... just my ideas after some wine ... you might be just right and this might be the worst moment to sell ... as for me, I just entered the Palladium space ...
I have been wrong and need to face that fact. Hence I am going to reduce my risk and think about what to do next.