Weekly markets checklist. Week 147. 16th February 2024

A big data week with UK GDP, UK inflation and US inflation numbers. UK GDP disappointed, UK inflation came in soft, while US inflation came in hot. We dig into all the numbers. Plus we have special sections on GRANOLAS, the correlation between equity PE ratios and bond yields and the PE ratio of the S&P 500. Plus we have all the usual macroeconomic and markets data.
Unfortunately we had a few problems this week. Richard went down to his yacht but forgot to take his laptop which meant he was unable to join in the presentation, so you just have me, Keith, hosting this week. One consequence of his absence was that I had no-one to point out that the slide sharing was not working for much of the podcast. I have therefore had to add them in the edit with the consequence that the live feed is missing for much of the first 25 minutes. I know that you will all be hugely disappointed not to see my face for the duration. Normal service resumes next week.
Chapters
00:00:53 This week’s news
00:05:35 This week’s economic data
00:06:51 UK economic data
00:28:43 EU economic data
00:29:52 US economic data
00:44:03 China economic data
00:44:50 One chart
00:46:36 Inflation watch
00:51:58 GRANOLAS
00:55:55 Recession watch
00:57:33 Are equity PE ratios correlated with bond yields?
01:00:38 The PE ratio of the S&P 500
01:05:38 Soft landing watch
01:07:14 Other charts
01:07:53 Good news
01:09:02 Equity market checklist
01:16:41 Commodity summary
01:17:36 Energy commodity checklist
01:23:36 Industrial metals checklist
01:25:02 Precious metals checklist
01:25:44 Bond yield and interest rates checklist
01:31:15 Concluding comments
01:33:04 Keith’s portfolio update
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[@richarddoherty5987]

I liked Portfolio Matters more when they occasionally looked at individual companies. The high level macro view is interesting but not actionable.

[@portfoliomatters2473]

I completely understand. I will return to looking at stocks when I am in looking to move into equities. Right now I am stuck in bonds praying that they recover as UK inflation subsides.

[@sogoesit8008]

Good stuff on PE Ratios… worth a deeper dig to avoid misconstruing underlying “truth” from “narrative”.