Weekly markets checklist. Week 157. 10th May 2024
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- Опубліковано 12 вер 2024
- Sadly Richard is away again this week, so it is just me. I have special segments on the US illegal immigration and its likely effect on the economy, US housing, the April US Senior Loan Officers Survey, and OPEC's March production numbers. Plus all the usual macro and market data. Highlights this week are US nonfarm payrolls, ISM services PMIs, and today's UK GDP numbers. In the my portfolio segment I discuss my experience of angel investing over the past 8 years (as well as my current disastrous performance).
Chapters
00:00:32 This week’s news
00:05:45 This week’s economic data
00:20:21 EU economic data
00:22:31 US economic data
00:33:20 China economic data
00:36:36 One Chart
00:37:52 US illegal immigration
00:42:06 US housing
00:44:48 US Senior Loan Officer’s Survey for April
00:46:53 OPEC March update
00:49:23 Inflation watch
00:51:18 Recession watch
00:55:01 Soft landing watch
00:58:40 Good news
01:00:04 Equity market checklist
01:00:05 Commodity summary
01:10:09 Industrial metals checklist
01:11:14 Precious metals
01:12:05 Bond yield and interest rates checklist
01:15:10 Concluding comments
01:15:45 Keith’s portfolio update
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Many thanks for setting up the AMC group it is much appreciated!
"goldielocks" ! i like that, I bought the FTSE 250 ETF and a UK microcap fund 6ms ago, added MBH.L last week ... feels like the handbrake may be coming off, risk premium to fall, liquidity to come back.
Thank you for the link to discord group
Thanks for the update, have you taken a look at one of your old favorites recently, Jadestone Energy had a great run last week with the new Gas production facility due on line anytime,
Thanks I will take another look. Over the past few years their strategy of buying old assets has come a bit of a cropper.
Unfortunately I totally agree re the angel investment experience. Opaque, tricky tax reporting paperwork (especially for losses), uncommunicative management unwilling to windup & crystalise losses, exits always 18m away etc. The 1 in 10 winners are blockbusters but it ain’t worth the hassle
Do you bother with VCT's or do prefer other high yield investments that might exceed 5% pa post tax?
I’ve switched from EIS to VCTs. My experience has been okay. Not amazing but okay. The share price charts of VCTs make them look dreadful but much of the return comes from regular & special dividends, which are themselves tax free. The AIM VCTs have been poor, which may be an opportunity to buy at the bottom.
I agree with most of that but I've found the tax reporting to be pretty simple. Most HMRC forms aren't geared up for it, so you just stick the detail in the comments section and that seems to work. I've also stopped investing directly into new companies as the lack of communication is just annoying. However, I'm now investing in EIS funds - they tend to have a much bigger stake and hence get a seat on the board and force updates from management as they're on the board. Higher fees, but a more satisfying process. Overall, I'm about at par but have had some very nice tax savings.
Interesting bonus piece on your experiences as an angel investor as I have been reviewing my forays into direct EIS investing. My view has been that those EIS fundraisings that are sponsored by an intermediary should be of higher quality than the average, but I have no evidence for this. It would be good to hear other people’s experiences.
All my EIS investments have been via intermediaries such as Innovation Warehouse, Startup Funding Club, QVentures, etc. They do some preliminary screening, but are aiming to take a turn on any investment. They are not actually investing in the companies (generally) so that their incentives are not the same as yours, they want to sell the companies to you, they do not necessarily care about whether the investment is successful 5 to 10 years down the line. The reality is that I can't really tell as yet whether my angel investments have been a success or not. If the company that Richard is the CFO of continues to grow and is subsequently sold, then it could be an incredible success that fulfils all my monetary dreams, but thus far it has been disappointing. Disappointing not just in that I have seen nothing but failures (inevitable as the poor companies fail early, and in fact only 2 of the companies have failed), but also because of the lack of information that I get out of them. I have learnt a lot from the 2 companies where I am on the Board. At least in those cases I know what is going on. In future I will only do deals where I join the board. If and when I get some exits I will discuss on the weekly. Fingers crossed
@@portfoliomatters2473 Yes the intermediaries I use get a small amount of cash at fundraise and warrants to buy at the offer price. They also claim that the intermediary's directors personally invest. Finally, they claim to do due diligence but it's clearly not a full suite.
VCTs strike me as much lower risk with similar tax breaks to EIS, but the returns are v poor and you might do better to pay the income tax and invest the balance successfully! Easier said than done ofc.
@@beartrap5271my experience with VCTs has been okay. Not great but okay. The share price charts look awful because much of the return is via dividends, including occasional large specials
@@beartrap5271 I did a few VCT's and never again. One total failure, one returned 50p in the £1, the other £1.07p. The problem is that the sponsor makes much better returns than you do. The one winner was bailed out by higher energy prices during the Pandemic, prior to that it would have also been a loser. Stuart has done far more of them and he has had a better experience, but I will be avoiding.
What is the name on Discord to listen to Rogue Trader? When I type in Portfolio Matters it says not found?
Try this link to join the Discord: discord.gg/49YVnsFe55
I look forward to seeing you on the call on Wednesday
How do I set up an Amur Minerals AMC discussion group on Portfolio Matters as RNS out today
You can post in the general chat section. I think you will get tumbleweeds with a company like that though.
Send me a request on the Discord.
There is now an AMC channel in the commodities sub-channel. Good luck. It looks very speculative to me
How do I send you a discord message