all these people saying myth 2 is incorrect. I've see bad players help the rest of the table, just as much as I've seen then hurt the table. I'm a firm believer in playing your own had. blackjack is not a team game.
+Annunaki2012return that's pretty much my take. When I'm playing, I just focus on my hand and what the dealer has...don't really pay much attention to who's playing before me. I can't stand the "Oh, you should have done X, or Awww..I could have used that card' commentary from those who do think 21 is a team effort... I liked the comment that 'if bad players cost the table money, the casinos would have stocked each table with someone to do so'.
People always get mad at me when I double Soft 18 against a 6 or split 9s against a 6,8,and 9. And what's worst is that people actually think i am stupid to split 8s against a 10.
Sheldon Cooper ...wait...what are you talking about....that’s what you’re supposed to do... It’s the shit like, staying on a 12 with the dealer having a 7 up card, the dealer flops over a 7, and pops over another 7 screwing the whole table. Do I KNOW for a fact that even if the player hit giving him a 19 that the dealer was going to bust or hit a 3? No. And will I get mad for it happening 1 or 2 times? Hell no. I was once a beginner at the game, and I knew what it was like to have that gut feeling but end up being wrong and making people upset for playing a stupid hand... But...it’s the CONSTANT hands that are played like that, that REALLY gets me. I just leave and sit back, wait to let them lose their money which happens 9/10 times and then go back to the table. I don’t like my money being in the hands of an idiot. It took a long time to perfect my card counts and basic strategy...and as Collins says I am investing, not trying to gamble.
I usually play at an empty table. Because whenever I play a full table and make sensible plays like these, they're always someone in disagreement. Then abuse and blame me if the dealer wins that hand. Thanks for the videos.
Steve ... thanks for doing such a great service for the gaming community. Your channel has established itself as one of the premier sites for accurate gaming information. You do a great service ... and I hope lots of players pick up your casino guide!
Sorry, but Henry is correct and you are incorrect. Just because a player takes a dealer's bust card one time doesn't mean it will always be that way. Sometimes they hurt you, sometimes they help you, but in the long run it doesn't matter what they do. Just play your cards and don't worry about everybody else.
If you are following basic strategy you should never take insurance. If you are counting cards, there are some instances where you would want to take insurance.
The bit about other players misplaying their hands is 100% true. Believing otherwise is to believe that all the cards in the [shuffled and cut] shoe are lined up perfectly to account for the exact number of players/hands to all be executing perfect basic strategy. Ludicrous!
I like to play blackjack and usually follow basic strategy very closely. I am amazed, though, at the number of people I see playing really carelessly. They make large side bets, refuse to hit on a 16, or bet large amounts compared to their bankroll. Sometimes I can play for two hours or more by playing carefully (sometimes I win, sometimes I don't); and during that time I will see dozens of players come and go, most of them only playing for 10 or 15 minutes. They run through their bankroll that quickly by making suspect (I am being kind) bets. These people either have a lot of money or just don't mind throwing their money away.
#2 is actually accurate, but only if you are counting cards. If they aren't taking enough cards, you don't get enough info to get a true count. When other players have stiff hands and do not hit, you don't get enough info to increase your bet. As far as Even Money, there aren't many conditions to take it. If you are deep into the shoe and the dealer hasn't had blackjack, take the even money. Its just a matter of preference really. Insurance, however you should never take, and you kind of want to hope they have blackjack if you have a stiff hand.
Also, as I explain or point out to folks at the table, if they ask, why do you suppose most casinos "advertise " in BIG BLOCK LETTERS right in the middle of the table, the insurance? I can tell you it's not a courtesy for you.
6:00 "When's the last time you saw a player congratulate another player for misplaying his hand since it caused everyone to win? It just doesn't happen."....... I've done it. And I'm genuinely grateful when it does work out in my favor, and I'm genuinely resentful when it doesn't. What of it? I still perfectly understand that it doesn't hurt or help me on AVERAGE.
QUESTION: please tell me mathematically how does the dealer have better than 50% chance of winning when they have same cards and have to get at least 17? I don't understand. Thanks
The dealer has the advantage because the player has to go first. If the player busts (total is over 21) they will lose their bet even if the dealer later busts.
I'm sorry but at #3 he says that the results of previous hands have an effect on future hands, unless im misinterpretting him tis is wrong. If the dealer doesnt reshuffle the deck after every hand this cannot possibily be true as using simple logic one could determine that if on the first hand he receives an ace and a 7 then procedes to stand and the dealer receives a 10 and a 6, hits gets an 8. then in the next hand the cards he receives are therefore less likely to be an ace, a 6, a 7, an 8 and a 10. This directly shows that previous hands affect future hands.
Yes, but he simply applies the law of averages, in which he is correct. If you play a million hands, which I'd say is a pretty good statistical sample, then you will win about 48% of the hands, discounting ties. Variables such as the amount of reshuffles will not affect the average in any significant way.
One thing That has always confused me when it comes to the subject of Blackjack people say that betting systems don't work and are not going to make you win long term. If you are a proficient enough card counter you will win and lose but ultimately win long term. If Card Counting really pays long term would that be an example of a successful betting system as you raise and lower your bet by the true count?
Progressive betting systems do nothing to negate the casino advantage on a particular game. With card counting you are only raising your bet when there is a mathematical advantage in your favor.
Not to start a debate, but what you are telling me is even if all 10 value cards have been used in the shoe, I still have a chance to pull a 10 value card because I "need to play my hand"? The deck does not reset to all cards (4 or 5 deck shoes) after each hand, therefore it cannot be 48% "each hand". The odds change after the first hand is dealt. It certainly matters if a poor player eats up a bunch of face cards and leaves dealer with small numbers to go with his low showing card.
Really?? Well, to begin with, (assuming the statement is true) it would be somewhat dependent upon the number of decks. But go ahead, give us a mathematical visualization of why the odds rise.
I don't know the exact math behind this assertion but even the Wizard of Odds Michael Shackleford who abhors any kind of progressive system had this to say 'Without knowing anything else, if you lost the last hand in blackjack then it is slightly more likely that more small cards than large just left the deck. This would make the remaining deck more large card rich and thus lower the house edge. However I speculate this is an extremely small effect.'
Steve Veasey Yes, of course you are right. But after losing one hand off the top of even only one full deck, the odds of winning the next hand wouldn't rise by that much. (One must remember that to lose a hand at BJ doesn't require small cards, nor a negative count,). The effect would be incredibly tiny. Would be interesting, though for the Wizard to tackle the problem.
37rainman Unless its a single deck game the effect would be statistically insignificant, even the best card counters can lose a high percentage of their 'advantage' bets given a random distribution of cards.
Steve Veasey It's not very significant true. If I remember the math right someone would have to lose 11 hands in a row in a 6 deck game with good rules for the player to have an advantage on average. Easier just to count cards at that point.
My last 2-3 times I played blackjack I lost $60-$80 I kept starting with 12/13/14 vs 10 or Ace...played virtual roulette and won most of it back betting on Black/green
Very good tips. However I totally disagree that positive betting progression does not work. Mr. Tamburin has completely ignored hot and cold streaks which occur all the time in every Casino game. The only way to win big is to go with the flow. If the table is hot, bet progressively higher amounts and in no time you will walk away a huge winner. If you loose 4 hands in a row, simply quit and come back later.
I agree but even with disjointed outcomes, hot and cold streaks do occur. Even if you flip a coin, you will see results which are random but have a pattern. Herein lies the gambler's edge which many fail to capitalize on.
***** You can't predict those streaks otherwise everybody would be raking it in. So you lose 4 in a row and stop, then you come back and maybe lose another 4 in a row. You aren't 'due' to win just because you had a bad losing run this is called the Gambler's Fallacy and explains why progressive betting systems don't work unless as EInstein said you have an infinite bankroll and the casino will take any bet you make.
Steve Veasey Of course, nothing can be predicted. But positive Progressive betting systems does work. If you keep adding to your winning bet, you will hit a good streak and walk away with more money you can imagine. Of course, if I lose 4 bets in a row I say bye bye and walk away. I take a break and either go to another table or another casino. Now, please tell me what system do you practice? Flat betting?
***** You do understand that at some point you will hit a losing run that wipes you out? I have hit 13 losing hands in a row before, using a simple system like the Martingale I would have had to bet 8196 dollars on the next hand to win one dollar overall. Blackjack without counting is a negative expectation game, there is no way to turn the odds in your favour in the long term although it is possible to win money over a short series of hands, but that is just luck.
I would disagree with not taking even money. Depending on the situation, if you are making a comeback, and have a large bet out there, $300+ let's say, I'll take it. $300 is still a good win when you haven't had the best of luck, but are just starting to come back. Very rarely do I take even money, but if I do, it's only because I have a large bet out there that is still a great win, regardless if it's even money or not
Myth 2 contradicts myth 4. Myth 1 put me to sleep. Also if that was the case what about the even money you can't take because the ace was under? It's not a simple 69/31
They are the same thing, just with different names. Notice that if you take insurance on blackjack, you get even money whether you win it or not because if the dealer did not have blackjack, you get 1.5-0.5=1 times your bet and if the dealer does have blackjack, you get 0+(0.5)(2)=1x your bet. Probably even money is worse though because the 10 in your hand decreases the chance that the dealer has a 10.
As far as myth #5, I understand this and lately I've been hitting my 2s, but MOST of the time...I DO get that fucking face card and bust! Depending on the other players at the table, I will sometimes hit it. When I'm alone, I almost always hit it unless the count is high.
if the bet is high like lets say you ride a streak of 3 and bet progressively i take even money anyday, if you just sit at the table and play minimum bet never take Even money.
The chances that all 10s would be gone from a multi-deck show are astronomical. If you werent counting, how and why would you incorporate the number of unplayed into deciding how to play your hand? ur gonna just guess they're are not a lot 10s? bad idea, like when people change bet amounts dependent on how many players at the table, senseless. If ur counting, then ud have long quit playing before the 10s are gone.
Im a low stakes counter, and Im successful. Everything this guy says is correct, although it does seem easy to misinterpret some of it you are not an expert because he is not totally clear (like he says the cards have no memory--they do not have memory in the context of the video, but they have memory only for the way i play). Anyone who insists this guy is DEFINITELY wrong is an idiot, like the ones who blame me when they lose, never considering my winning is anything except pure luck.
+37rainman - U either need a good memory to memorize what to do in every situation or have good math skills to play at that %, in fact a 6 deck game with absolute optimal play and 3-2 payouts on blackjacks u can eek it back to 49.5%, best ur ever going to get on a chance to double ur money in 1 minute.
“There has never been a mathematical study showing that past hands have an effect of the next hand”, this is false, it’s called card counting and if you haven’t heard of it he shouldn’t be making these videos. This is a huge deal in blackjack and he cannot say that past hands do not effect future hands because that is not true
+Joey Kilgore All of Henry's comments referred to information for basic strategy players and not for card counters. If you are a basic strategy player then the information stated is correct.
americancasinoguide I don’t know, for blackjack it’s always true and it’s the only game where it is always true. Regardless of whether you are keeping track of what has been played the past events do effect later ones
Indeed. What he should have said is that they have no memory of the outcomes of whether the player won or lost previous hands. They certainly do have a memory, just not of that.
I'm sorry but I have to disagree with the ace even money theory... If I have 200 or more up, and I hit a blackjack, I'm not going to throw away an automatic 200 plus just to maybe get that 100 extra... I'm getting my 200 I'm not going to let him turn a blackjack and hit the table with the back if his hand and say we push you get nothing uh uh
+Michael Leite If you only play a few times a year then you are doing the right thing because you don't play enough for that .04% to kick in. obviously to us mortals $200 dollars is a good amount of money but imagine if you were a millionaire who played everyday then you would want that .04% working for you!!! So I agree that you would be wise given your circumstances to play exactly the way you did, but again if you played all the time at really high stakes you would be wise to play as described in the video!!!
+SL4VE0WNER1904619 It is a bad bet to take insurance. We just did a new video that explains the math as to why it is a bad bet - ua-cam.com/video/01ZcTBgGN6M/v-deo.html
You probably should since if the dealer does not have blackjack, you only lose 1/6 of your winnings. But yeah, you should not even play at these tables.
Actually, a poor player is more likely to eat up more low value cards taking hits and increase your true count temporarily. In the long run the quality of other people's play simply does not impact your game.
Odds are based on an infinite deck or on the first hand of a shoe. Odds fluctuate, but average out to be exactly what they were at the beginning. And its not really 48%. He's saying its close to a 50/50 game...the average player loses 2% of what he bets. You will only win 43% of the hands, the dealer will win 48%. This is why people are so bad at blackjack. You spell it out to them in plain english, and you can even demonstrate by winning. Nope, they dont understand so u must be wrong.
Except you do always assume it's a 10 in the hole BUT you hit 12 on a 2. You also said there's only 16 tens in a deck? Well yea, but you don't play with 1 deck. In a 6 deck shoe there's 96 tens. There's 128 in an 8 deck shoe...... which is what we use where I work. Also..... players do celebrate when a person makes a "good mistake" 🤦♀️ I hope people aren't actually taking all of your advice 😅
Obviously taking the even money over the long term is less but sometimes I take that even money and I am glad that I did because he has a 10. When I am low on Bank roll I am more likely to take that even money
Myth 5 is incorrect. Myth 4 is incorrect. Myth 3 didn't make sense to me. Myth 2 DEFINITELY INCORRECT! Other players DO make a difference to the hands. It's called taking the dealer bust card! I do agree on Myth 1. Generally, his math is incorrect. How can you assume 48% on each hand when you are taking cards away from the deck? As each card is used, the odds change. If it is 48% each hand, that means the deck resets at each hand. That's the only way.
+TheH8trs Well, you would need to say exactly what you think I s wrong and why you think it's wrong. Otherwise, you are the one who has no idea what you are talking about!
Re: the idiot that misplays the hand. This guy is correct the deck/shoe has no memory. The thing is that if I am sitting at a fun table and this idiot hits a 16 against a dealer 6. This throws a wet blanket over the whole scene. He/she does not change the odds, but it can influence the mood of the whole table, so the enjoyment of all other players is diminished. I am there for the fun, not the prospects of winning big. I don't have Raymond next to me. The friendly patter among fellow players falls off. I wish I had a kind way of shooing them off, their odds, off at the slots. For them, the odds are better.
Well, the table mood would be fine if the player's bad move helped everyone to win. Keep in mind a bad move doesn't necessarily mean everyone will lose.
As stated the deck/shoe has no memory. The odds are the same. A player that consistently defies basic strategy kinda spoils the mood of the players at that table. Many just walk away. I am one. If I played poker, I would welcome them to a seat at the table.
That is true. By the odds, predicting the next card is beyonmd me Odds are odds. I'll stick to the basic strategy. If I try to do the counting thing my brain hurts. I play the minimum tables. I just want to have fun. Sometimes I win, usually not.
progressive betting is the only way to win....start out minimal bet if you win let it ride......if you win let it ride.....if you win third bet put back your money go back to minimal bet.....if you loose third bet you have only lost the minimal in three hands.....if you win your third bet you have 8 times the minimal bet in front of you.....IF YOU PLAY LOTS OF BLACKJACK THIS DOES WORK.....I AM LIVING PROOF NOT SOMEONE WHO WROTE A BOOK OR VIDEO FOR A CASINO......SO CALLED EXPERTS.....IF THEY WAS MAKING SO MUCH MONEY PLAYING THAT WAY WAY WRITE A BOOK......THINK ABOUT IT........BEFORE YOU PLAY
The part he said about other players going against basic strategy doesn't effect the other players chances of winning is bullshit!! hes wrong and he said it will benefit half the time anyway that is not correct because it's going to hurt more than help more times than not based on percentages of the game since when is the playing field 50 50 for a good/bad move. It isn't, this actually made me angry.
Sorry, but his comment about bad players not hurting other players is correct. The bad players have no idea if their bad play is going to help, or hurt, the other players at the table. Sometimes it hurts, sometimes it helps and in the long run it all evens out.
Scott Larrabee you're right. It pisses me off when other players keep on playing badly by going against basic strategy and not learning from thier mistakes, especially when they keep egnorering us good players's advice.
Scott Larrabee Dude wtf are you talking about. You obviously have never done the rational thing of actually keeping track of how many times you win v lose when another player makes an error. Keep track next time, it will liberate your mind!!!
So, you truly think other players playing poorly does not cause you to lose? You are so wrong on that statement. Optimal strategy only works if the entire table is using the strategy with no missteps. The entire point of getting the advantage minimized or non existent is to draw small cards out. The only real time players play poorly is not drawing those bad cards. Bad players do in fact cause negative implications on the entire shoe and table. It's not a matter of maybe, in the long runs, it's a matter of math and fact.
+Dennis Vamos Other players playing poorly does not cause you to lose. Otherwise, you are saying that those bad players have some mystical power to know exactly what card is coming next that will cause everyone at the table to lose. If that was true casinos would be hiring bad players to sit at their tables so that they could make more money. Those bad players, have no idea what card is going to come out next. Sometimes it will hurt the other players and sometimes it will help the other players. In the long run it doesn't really matter what those bad players do.
americancasinoguide It's not about a mystical power. You tend to base info solely on math. Well, the entire mathematical formula for running a shoe properly is based on mathematical odds of pulling cards so you have information. It isn't about knowing what card is next, is about elimination which directly correlates with probability.
+Dennis Vamos Unless you are counting cards, you have no idea what kind of cards are likely to come out of the shoe next. Therefore, it is just as likely to be a low card as a high card. So, once again, sometimes a bad player's moves will hurt you and sometimes they will help you.
Mark Mark Yeah ok. I am only hired by NASA to solve extreme mathematical equations to prove whether something is possible or does in fact happen. But, yeah, I don't understand math. Please inform me some more.
all these people saying myth 2 is incorrect. I've see bad players help the rest of the table, just as much as I've seen then hurt the table. I'm a firm believer in playing your own had. blackjack is not a team game.
+Annunaki2012return that's pretty much my take. When I'm playing, I just focus on my hand and what the dealer has...don't really pay much attention to who's playing before me. I can't stand the "Oh, you should have done X, or Awww..I could have used that card' commentary from those who do think 21 is a team effort... I liked the comment that 'if bad players cost the table money, the casinos would have stocked each table with someone to do so'.
I've thanked people for misplaying their hands into a table win before.
People always get mad at me when I double Soft 18 against a 6 or split 9s against a 6,8,and 9. And what's worst is that people actually think i am stupid to split 8s against a 10.
Sheldon Cooper ...wait...what are you talking about....that’s what you’re supposed to do...
It’s the shit like, staying on a 12 with the dealer having a 7 up card, the dealer flops over a 7, and pops over another 7 screwing the whole table. Do I KNOW for a fact that even if the player hit giving him a 19 that the dealer was going to bust or hit a 3?
No. And will I get mad for it happening 1 or 2 times? Hell no. I was once a beginner at the game, and I knew what it was like to have that gut feeling but end up being wrong and making people upset for playing a stupid hand...
But...it’s the CONSTANT hands that are played like that, that REALLY gets me.
I just leave and sit back, wait to let them lose their money which happens 9/10 times and then go back to the table. I don’t like my money being in the hands of an idiot. It took a long time to perfect my card counts and basic strategy...and as Collins says I am investing, not trying to gamble.
Henry is talking about a basic strategy player and not a card counter. The basic strategy could change when counting cards, based on the true count.
I usually play at an empty table. Because whenever I play a full table and make sensible plays like these, they're always someone in disagreement. Then abuse and blame me if the dealer wins that hand. Thanks for the videos.
A general rule of always: If the casino offers you anything(on the table) refuse.
Steve ... thanks for doing such a great service for the gaming community. Your channel has established itself as one of the premier sites for accurate gaming information. You do a great service ... and I hope lots of players pick up your casino guide!
Sorry, but Henry is correct and you are incorrect. Just because a player takes a dealer's bust card one time doesn't mean it will always be that way. Sometimes they hurt you, sometimes they help you, but in the long run it doesn't matter what they do. Just play your cards and don't worry about everybody else.
If you are following basic strategy you should never take insurance. If you are counting cards, there are some instances where you would want to take insurance.
As stated, "if you are counting".
The bit about other players misplaying their hands is 100% true. Believing otherwise is to believe that all the cards in the [shuffled and cut] shoe are lined up perfectly to account for the exact number of players/hands to all be executing perfect basic strategy. Ludicrous!
I like to play blackjack and usually follow basic strategy very closely. I am amazed, though, at the number of people I see playing really carelessly. They make large side bets, refuse to hit on a 16, or bet large amounts compared to their bankroll. Sometimes I can play for two hours or more by playing carefully (sometimes I win, sometimes I don't); and during that time I will see dozens of players come and go, most of them only playing for 10 or 15 minutes. They run through their bankroll that quickly by making suspect (I am being kind) bets. These people either have a lot of money or just don't mind throwing their money away.
Yes, I don't think most people realize that the small house edge in blackjack only happens when you play correctly
#2 is actually accurate, but only if you are counting cards. If they aren't taking enough cards, you don't get enough info to get a true count. When other players have stiff hands and do not hit, you don't get enough info to increase your bet.
As far as Even Money, there aren't many conditions to take it. If you are deep into the shoe and the dealer hasn't had blackjack, take the even money. Its just a matter of preference really. Insurance, however you should never take, and you kind of want to hope they have blackjack if you have a stiff hand.
Also, as I explain or point out to folks at the table, if they ask, why do you suppose most casinos "advertise " in BIG BLOCK LETTERS right in the middle of the table, the insurance? I can tell you it's not a courtesy for you.
Whatever the house offers, I would be inclined to decline. They offer for a reason.
Good advice, especially the even money. I always try to convince players not to take it when I play (same with insurance).
6:00 "When's the last time you saw a player congratulate another player for misplaying his hand since it caused everyone to win? It just doesn't happen."....... I've done it. And I'm genuinely grateful when it does work out in my favor, and I'm genuinely resentful when it doesn't. What of it? I still perfectly understand that it doesn't hurt or help me on AVERAGE.
I think the #1 myth is the flow of the cards. Though it was mentioned in the bad players myth I think it needs it's own category.
From what I've read . . . taking the insurance bet is a BAD bet to make?
QUESTION: please tell me mathematically how does the dealer have better than 50% chance of winning when they have same cards and have to get at least 17? I don't understand. Thanks
The dealer has the advantage because the player has to go first. If the player busts (total is over 21) they will lose their bet even if the dealer later busts.
ok thanks, i see this now. Adjust your bets has to some how help player I would think.
Your bet size has no effect on the gameplay at all.
it will if you're using a machine
The subtitles are hilarious!
bj insiders is what's funny
They didn't write them, they just let google's speech recognition do it for them, that's why it screws things up.
I'm sorry but at #3 he says that the results of previous hands have an effect on future hands, unless im misinterpretting him tis is wrong. If the dealer doesnt reshuffle the deck after every hand this cannot possibily be true as using simple logic one could determine that if on the first hand he receives an ace and a 7 then procedes to stand and the dealer receives a 10 and a 6, hits gets an 8. then in the next hand the cards he receives are therefore less likely to be an ace, a 6, a 7, an 8 and a 10. This directly shows that previous hands affect future hands.
Yes, but he simply applies the law of averages, in which he is correct. If you play a million hands, which I'd say is a pretty good statistical sample, then you will win about 48% of the hands, discounting ties. Variables such as the amount of reshuffles will not affect the average in any significant way.
i think he was talking about gambliers fallacy
I have never sat at a table where the dealer shuffles after every hand, not even w/ single deck table.
Thanks for this. Keep the Blackjack videos coming!
One thing That has always confused me when it comes to the subject of Blackjack people say that betting systems don't work and are not going to make you win long term. If you are a proficient enough card counter you will win and lose but ultimately win long term. If Card Counting really pays long term would that be an example of a successful betting system as you raise and lower your bet by the true count?
Progressive betting systems do nothing to negate the casino advantage on a particular game. With card counting you are only raising your bet when there is a mathematical advantage in your favor.
#3 ... unless you learn to know information inside the shoe.. like "card counting"
Actually their suggestions that fall apart if you do that are #1 and #5.
Not to start a debate, but what you are telling me is even if all 10 value cards have been used in the shoe, I still have a chance to pull a 10 value card because I "need to play my hand"? The deck does not reset to all cards (4 or 5 deck shoes) after each hand, therefore it cannot be 48% "each hand". The odds change after the first hand is dealt. It certainly matters if a poor player eats up a bunch of face cards and leaves dealer with small numbers to go with his low showing card.
That makes sense. Thank you for clarifying.
Technically #4 is wrong. Statistically after a loss your odds of winning the next hand go up by around .1% It's still a losing game though.
Really?? Well, to begin with, (assuming the statement is true) it would be somewhat dependent upon the number of decks. But go ahead, give us a mathematical visualization of why the odds rise.
I don't know the exact math behind this assertion but even the Wizard of Odds Michael Shackleford who abhors any kind of progressive system had this to say 'Without knowing anything else, if you lost the last hand in blackjack then it is slightly more likely that more small cards than large just left the deck. This would make the remaining deck more large card rich and thus lower the house edge. However I speculate this is an extremely small effect.'
Steve Veasey Yes, of course you are right. But after losing one hand off the top of even only one full deck, the odds of winning the next hand wouldn't rise by that much. (One must remember that to lose a hand at BJ doesn't require small cards, nor a negative count,). The effect would be incredibly tiny. Would be interesting, though for the Wizard to tackle the problem.
37rainman
Unless its a single deck game the effect would be statistically insignificant, even the best card counters can lose a high percentage of their 'advantage' bets given a random distribution of cards.
Steve Veasey It's not very significant true. If I remember the math right someone would have to lose 11 hands in a row in a 6 deck game with good rules for the player to have an advantage on average. Easier just to count cards at that point.
Semyon Dukach says it makes no difference in the long run OR short run. He says that it's an illusion that it makes a difference.
My last 2-3 times I played blackjack I lost $60-$80 I kept starting with 12/13/14 vs 10 or Ace...played virtual roulette and won most of it back betting on Black/green
So Henry is saying that card counting does not work?
The advice is the same in either situation.
Very good tips. However I totally disagree that positive betting progression does not work. Mr. Tamburin has completely ignored hot and cold streaks which occur all the time in every Casino game. The only way to win big is to go with the flow. If the table is hot, bet progressively higher amounts and in no time you will walk away a huge winner. If you loose 4 hands in a row, simply quit and come back later.
You can't use past results to determine future outcomes. Casino games are designed to be random.
I agree but even with disjointed outcomes, hot and cold streaks do occur. Even if you flip a coin, you will see results which are random but have a pattern. Herein lies the gambler's edge which many fail to capitalize on.
*****
You can't predict those streaks otherwise everybody would be raking it in. So you lose 4 in a row and stop, then you come back and maybe lose another 4 in a row. You aren't 'due' to win just because you had a bad losing run this is called the Gambler's Fallacy and explains why progressive betting systems don't work unless as EInstein said you have an infinite bankroll and the casino will take any bet you make.
Steve Veasey Of course, nothing can be predicted. But positive Progressive betting systems does work. If you keep adding to your winning bet, you will hit a good streak and walk away with more money you can imagine. Of course, if I lose 4 bets in a row I say bye bye and walk away. I take a break and either go to another table or another casino. Now, please tell me what system do you practice? Flat betting?
*****
You do understand that at some point you will hit a losing run that wipes you out? I have hit 13 losing hands in a row before, using a simple system like the Martingale I would have had to bet 8196 dollars on the next hand to win one dollar overall. Blackjack without counting is a negative expectation game, there is no way to turn the odds in your favour in the long term although it is possible to win money over a short series of hands, but that is just luck.
I would disagree with not taking even money. Depending on the situation, if you are making a comeback, and have a large bet out there, $300+ let's say, I'll take it. $300 is still a good win when you haven't had the best of luck, but are just starting to come back. Very rarely do I take even money, but if I do, it's only because I have a large bet out there that is still a great win, regardless if it's even money or not
Myth 2 contradicts myth 4. Myth 1 put me to sleep. Also if that was the case what about the even money you can't take because the ace was under? It's not a simple 69/31
What is worse - even money or insurance?
They are the same thing, just with different names. Notice that if you take insurance on blackjack, you get even money whether you win it or not because if the dealer did not have blackjack, you get 1.5-0.5=1 times your bet and if the dealer does have blackjack, you get 0+(0.5)(2)=1x your bet.
Probably even money is worse though because the 10 in your hand decreases the chance that the dealer has a 10.
should i play till they change decks?
Luv these kind of videos ;-)
As far as myth #5, I understand this and lately I've been hitting my 2s, but MOST of the time...I DO get that fucking face card and bust! Depending on the other players at the table, I will sometimes hit it. When I'm alone, I almost always hit it unless the count is high.
Depending your strategy on other players will make you lose.
if the bet is high like lets say you ride a streak of 3 and bet progressively i take even money anyday, if you just sit at the table and play minimum bet never take Even money.
The chances that all 10s would be gone from a multi-deck show are astronomical. If you werent counting, how and why would you incorporate the number of unplayed into deciding how to play your hand? ur gonna just guess they're are not a lot 10s? bad idea, like when people change bet amounts dependent on how many players at the table, senseless. If ur counting, then ud have long quit playing before the 10s are gone.
Interesting, thx for Upload. :)
Im a low stakes counter, and Im successful. Everything this guy says is correct, although it does seem easy to misinterpret some of it you are not an expert because he is not totally clear (like he says the cards have no memory--they do not have memory in the context of the video, but they have memory only for the way i play). Anyone who insists this guy is DEFINITELY wrong is an idiot, like the ones who blame me when they lose, never considering my winning is anything except pure luck.
turn sound down and just read the "translation".
+Andy Weis We just added that feature to many of the videos the other day. We now see that there are some problems and we are working to correct them.
"every hand has a 48% chance of winning if you exclude the ties"
I assure you that your chances of winning your next hand is NOT 48%
+37rainman - U either need a good memory to memorize what to do in every situation or have good math skills to play at that %, in fact a 6 deck game with absolute optimal play and 3-2 payouts on blackjacks u can eek it back to 49.5%, best ur ever going to get on a chance to double ur money in 1 minute.
Most of what he said is true, but he was mistaken about the deck not having a memory. That is the basis for card counting.
Chris Nelvin If they are shuffled after every hand, then you can't card count.
“There has never been a mathematical study showing that past hands have an effect of the next hand”, this is false, it’s called card counting and if you haven’t heard of it he shouldn’t be making these videos. This is a huge deal in blackjack and he cannot say that past hands do not effect future hands because that is not true
+Joey Kilgore All of Henry's comments referred to information for basic strategy players and not for card counters. If you are a basic strategy player then the information stated is correct.
americancasinoguide I don’t know, for blackjack it’s always true and it’s the only game where it is always true. Regardless of whether you are keeping track of what has been played the past events do effect later ones
if I am on a good run I take even money
The cards have no memory. Ehhhhh not really. Card counting.
Indeed. What he should have said is that they have no memory of the outcomes of whether the player won or lost previous hands. They certainly do have a memory, just not of that.
That’s your memory not the cards
I'm sorry but I have to disagree with the ace even money theory... If I have 200 or more up, and I hit a blackjack, I'm not going to throw away an automatic 200 plus just to maybe get that 100 extra... I'm getting my 200 I'm not going to let him turn a blackjack and hit the table with the back if his hand and say we push you get nothing uh uh
+Michael Leite If you only play a few times a year then you are doing the right thing because you don't play enough for that .04% to kick in. obviously to us mortals $200 dollars is a good amount of money but imagine if you were a millionaire who played everyday then you would want that .04% working for you!!! So I agree that you would be wise given your circumstances to play exactly the way you did, but again if you played all the time at really high stakes you would be wise to play as described in the video!!!
MASTER deBATER.
agree to disagree here
+Michael Leite i agree. i am not going to risk $200 just to win $100
+SL4VE0WNER1904619 It is a bad bet to take insurance. We just did a new video that explains the math as to why it is a bad bet - ua-cam.com/video/01ZcTBgGN6M/v-deo.html
americancasinoguide yeah i never take insurance either or surrender.
So take the even money if at a 6-5 table? (Yes I know.. 6-5 is bad)
You probably should since if the dealer does not have blackjack, you only lose 1/6 of your winnings. But yeah, you should not even play at these tables.
I disagree about the memory. If the cards come out then the deck composition is changed so the odds have to, and your chance of winning.
I always ask for double money but it never happens! =(
Every time I take a hit on A12I get a 10
Actually, a poor player is more likely to eat up more low value cards taking hits and increase your true count temporarily. In the long run the quality of other people's play simply does not impact your game.
False
He's working for Casino
Henry is correct, just don't buy any of his books LOL
Odds are based on an infinite deck or on the first hand of a shoe. Odds fluctuate, but average out to be exactly what they were at the beginning. And its not really 48%. He's saying its close to a 50/50 game...the average player loses 2% of what he bets. You will only win 43% of the hands, the dealer will win 48%. This is why people are so bad at blackjack. You spell it out to them in plain english, and you can even demonstrate by winning. Nope, they dont understand so u must be wrong.
Except you do always assume it's a 10 in the hole BUT you hit 12 on a 2. You also said there's only 16 tens in a deck? Well yea, but you don't play with 1 deck. In a 6 deck shoe there's 96 tens. There's 128 in an 8 deck shoe...... which is what we use where I work. Also..... players do celebrate when a person makes a "good mistake" 🤦♀️
I hope people aren't actually taking all of your advice 😅
Learn to count cards and basic strategy
4:20 Not true.
Obviously taking the even money over the long term is less but sometimes I take that even money and I am glad that I did because he has a 10. When I am low on Bank roll I am more likely to take that even money
Sometimes you DO have a "moron" sitting to your right and that is never good...
Questionable dealing skills. Who is dealing? They need some practice. 😁
Myth 5 is incorrect. Myth 4 is incorrect. Myth 3 didn't make sense to me. Myth 2 DEFINITELY INCORRECT! Other players DO make a difference to the hands. It's called taking the dealer bust card! I do agree on Myth 1. Generally, his math is incorrect. How can you assume 48% on each hand when you are taking cards away from the deck? As each card is used, the odds change. If it is 48% each hand, that means the deck resets at each hand. That's the only way.
this guy has no clue what he's talking about.
+TheH8trs Well, you would need to say exactly what you think I s wrong and why you think it's wrong. Otherwise, you are the one who has no idea what you are talking about!
Re: the idiot that misplays the hand. This guy is correct the deck/shoe has no memory. The thing is that if I am sitting at a fun table and this idiot hits a 16 against a dealer 6. This throws a wet blanket over the whole scene.
He/she does not change the odds, but it can influence the mood of the whole table, so the enjoyment of all other players is diminished. I am there for the fun, not the prospects of winning big. I don't have Raymond next to me.
The friendly patter among fellow players falls off.
I wish I had a kind way of shooing them off, their odds, off at the slots. For them, the odds are better.
Well, the table mood would be fine if the player's bad move helped everyone to win. Keep in mind a bad move doesn't necessarily mean everyone will lose.
As stated the deck/shoe has no memory. The odds are the same.
A player that consistently defies basic strategy kinda spoils the mood of the players at that table. Many just walk away. I am one.
If I played poker, I would welcome them to a seat at the table.
That is true. By the odds, predicting the next card is beyonmd me
Odds are odds.
I'll stick to the basic strategy. If I try to do the counting thing my brain hurts.
I play the minimum tables. I just want to have fun.
Sometimes I win, usually not.
Wrong blackjack has a memory.
progressive betting is the only way to win....start out minimal bet if you win let it ride......if you win let it ride.....if you win third bet put back your money go back to minimal bet.....if you loose third bet you have only lost the minimal in three hands.....if you win your third bet you have 8 times the minimal bet in front of you.....IF YOU PLAY LOTS OF BLACKJACK THIS DOES WORK.....I AM LIVING PROOF NOT SOMEONE WHO WROTE A BOOK OR VIDEO FOR A CASINO......SO CALLED EXPERTS.....IF THEY WAS MAKING SO MUCH MONEY PLAYING THAT WAY WAY WRITE A BOOK......THINK ABOUT IT........BEFORE YOU PLAY
This system is called the Paroli system.
The part he said about other players going against basic strategy doesn't effect the other players chances of winning is bullshit!! hes wrong and he said it will benefit half the time anyway that is not correct because it's going to hurt more than help more times than not based on percentages of the game since when is the playing field 50 50 for a good/bad move. It isn't, this actually made me angry.
Sorry, but his comment about bad players not hurting other players is correct. The bad players have no idea if their bad play is going to help, or hurt, the other players at the table. Sometimes it hurts, sometimes it helps and in the long run it all evens out.
Scott Larrabee you're right. It pisses me off when other players keep on playing badly by going against basic strategy and not learning from thier mistakes, especially when they keep egnorering us good players's advice.
Scott Larrabee
Dude wtf are you talking about. You obviously have never done the rational thing of actually keeping track of how many times you win v lose when another player makes an error. Keep track next time, it will liberate your mind!!!
So, you truly think other players playing poorly does not cause you to lose? You are so wrong on that statement. Optimal strategy only works if the entire table is using the strategy with no missteps. The entire point of getting the advantage minimized or non existent is to draw small cards out. The only real time players play poorly is not drawing those bad cards. Bad players do in fact cause negative implications on the entire shoe and table. It's not a matter of maybe, in the long runs, it's a matter of math and fact.
+Dennis Vamos Other players playing poorly does not cause you to lose. Otherwise, you are saying that those bad players have some mystical power to know exactly what card is coming next that will cause everyone at the table to lose. If that was true casinos would be hiring bad players to sit at their tables so that they could make more money. Those bad players, have no idea what card is going to come out next. Sometimes it will hurt the other players and sometimes it will help the other players. In the long run it doesn't really matter what those bad players do.
americancasinoguide It's not about a mystical power. You tend to base info solely on math. Well, the entire mathematical formula for running a shoe properly is based on mathematical odds of pulling cards so you have information. It isn't about knowing what card is next, is about elimination which directly correlates with probability.
+Dennis Vamos Unless you are counting cards, you have no idea what kind of cards are likely to come out of the shoe next. Therefore, it is just as likely to be a low card as a high card. So, once again, sometimes a bad player's moves will hurt you and sometimes they will help you.
+Dennis Reynolds You're a fucking idiot that doesn't understand math
Mark Mark Yeah ok. I am only hired by NASA to solve extreme mathematical equations to prove whether something is possible or does in fact happen. But, yeah, I don't understand math. Please inform me some more.