I love you Patrick! I don't know how to let you know how much I appreciate your help! Every time when I have difficulty in math, your videos always make things more clear! I am very bad at math, struggling! Glad to have you! Thank you so much!
Thank you. It was slightly rambling - but that is the nature of a good teacher - as it gave me time to digest it. The problem with textbooks is that they come into the subject at too high a level. I say 'treat me like a six year old' at the start and then I'll understand the complex maths later on. Greatly appreciated.
Very helpful video but I have one Question. Why is it that using the Bayes Theorem answers (B1=2/8, B2= 1/8, B3=5/8) are just the same as counting the number of reds in each bin (B1=2, B2=1, B3=5) and dividing by the total number of reds (Total = 8)? Is this just a one off case or can it be that simple? I don't think this could be the case as it doesn't factor in the probability of selecting bin 1, 2, or 3 (B1=1/3, B2=1/6, B3=1/2). Thanks for the videos!!!
Sir, I am subscribed to your self explanatory tutorials since 2012. Bayes has been well dealt with. Please do something on mcmc/winbugs....we will really appreciate linking our knowledge of Bayesian probability with mcmc estimations, using your easy-to-follow examples. God bless you for an excellent job.
That only works in this particular problem because the probability of drawing a red coin from each box is proportional to the number of coins in that box. And that's because the total number of coins in each box (6, 3 and 9) is proportional to the probability of choosing that box (1/3, 1/6 and 1/2). If you add a red or blue coin to any of the boxes, this won't work anymore.
That is because the probability of selecting B1 is in line with unweighted chances of selecting one similar object of three (one in three). The others are weighted differently and it would not work for those.
i test if it will work on the other bowls >> yes it does but if the P(B1)=P(B2)=P(B3) >> can't be example if the probability of picking a bowl is 1/3, the probability of getting a red coin is 11/27. using bayes' theorem, the result of getting a red coin from the B2 is 3/11, which is not equal to the logic if you have 1 red coin in B2 and there are 8 coins total, the P(B2 | R)=1/8 as you propose
scrolling down, i see that this has already been answered more accurately. i couldn't remember if the bowls had proportionate items. If the chances of selecting a "bowl" are in line with the proportion of objects in the bowl relative to the total sum of the objects, then this technique would work because we are essentially negating the "bowl" altogether. If the bowls were more or less prone to being picked from due to some other factor (relative size, for instance), then this would not work.
Patrick I love you!! College professors should learn how to teach math correctly and in understandable terms (instead of initially daunting math jargon). Please do more videos on statistics.. I'll recommend you to my fellow statistics classmates! :D
Thank you so easy to understand!!!! I'm taking a summer class and the teacher just blazes through the material cause there is a lot to cover, but this is so awesome :)
This just happens to be coincidental, try the same problem if we make the selection of P(B1) = 1/2, P(B2) = 1/4, P(B3) = 1/4. I am getting P(B1|R) = 3/7; P(B2|R) = 3/14; P(B3|R) = 5/14.
In the first video, you calculated that the probability of drawing a red coin was 4/9. But in the second video you skipped the calculation and said that the probability of drawing a red coin was 2/8. The correct answer is 4/9.
But 4/9 is the prob that a drawn coin is red: P ( R ) And 2/8 is the chance that a red coin drawn came from bowl 1: P ( B1 | R ) Aren't those 2 different probabilites? So that means he is actually right in the video...
no his final result was right. It looks like you accidentally added the denominators on top instead of multiplying them. (1/3)(1/3)=(1/9) and (1/9)/(4/9)=(1/4)
your claim is working here because the probability of drawing the B1 is 1/3. If probability drawing of B1 was 1/2 or 1/6, result would be another value...
why do you people complain on beeping? like 99% of you can't focus on what he says because of random beeping?? maybe you should test on ocd or something
I love you Patrick! I don't know how to let you know how much I appreciate your help! Every time when I have difficulty in math, your videos always make things more clear! I am very bad at math, struggling! Glad to have you! Thank you so much!
You rock ! I can't imagine life without your videos :p
Thanks bud .
Hard to get it without beeping :( Please, add some beep
the calculation you did for part b in the end should it not be 4/9?
Thank you. It was slightly rambling - but that is the nature of a good teacher - as it gave me time to digest it. The problem with textbooks is that they come into the subject at too high a level. I say 'treat me like a six year old' at the start and then I'll understand the complex maths later on. Greatly appreciated.
Very helpful video but I have one Question.
Why is it that using the Bayes Theorem answers (B1=2/8, B2= 1/8, B3=5/8) are just the same as counting the number of reds in each bin (B1=2, B2=1, B3=5) and dividing by the total number of reds (Total = 8)?
Is this just a one off case or can it be that simple? I don't think this could be the case as it doesn't factor in the probability of selecting bin 1, 2, or 3 (B1=1/3, B2=1/6, B3=1/2).
Thanks for the videos!!!
Sir,
I am subscribed to your self explanatory tutorials since 2012.
Bayes has been well dealt with.
Please do something on mcmc/winbugs....we will really appreciate linking our knowledge of Bayesian probability with mcmc estimations, using your easy-to-follow examples.
God bless you for an excellent job.
I never take the effort to log in and thank someone, but thank you so much.
Thanks to you I will (hopefully) not fail my exam tomorrow!.
Best of all videos !! Thank you very much!!
GOOD ONE! This is one of the best explanations with example. Pefect! Just Perfect. Thank you very much!
It's all so clear. I'm only at min 3 but I need to tell you this now: thank you for making this videos.
how do we check if events A and B are independent or not in this particular example?
That only works in this particular problem because the probability of drawing a red coin from each box is proportional to the number of coins in that box. And that's because the total number of coins in each box (6, 3 and 9) is proportional to the probability of choosing that box (1/3, 1/6 and 1/2). If you add a red or blue coin to any of the boxes, this won't work anymore.
That is because the probability of selecting B1 is in line with unweighted chances of selecting one similar object of three (one in three). The others are weighted differently and it would not work for those.
thank you so much patrick, this is so helpful :)
i test if it will work on the other bowls >> yes it does
but if the P(B1)=P(B2)=P(B3) >> can't be
example if the probability of picking a bowl is 1/3, the probability of getting a red coin is 11/27. using bayes' theorem, the result of getting a red coin from the B2 is 3/11, which is not equal to the logic if you have 1 red coin in B2 and there are 8 coins total, the P(B2 | R)=1/8 as you propose
scrolling down, i see that this has already been answered more accurately. i couldn't remember if the bowls had proportionate items. If the chances of selecting a "bowl" are in line with the proportion of objects in the bowl relative to the total sum of the objects, then this technique would work because we are essentially negating the "bowl" altogether. If the bowls were more or less prone to being picked from due to some other factor (relative size, for instance), then this would not work.
Patrick I love you!! College professors should learn how to teach math correctly and in understandable terms (instead of initially daunting math jargon). Please do more videos on statistics.. I'll recommend you to my fellow statistics classmates! :D
This is great! It might be even more effective if you work out an example where the answer is counterintuitive.
very clever!
It FINALLY makes sense! Cheers for the video - very helpful!
super duper video on explaining Bayes magic~
wow great explanation , my lecturer gave this big formula (daunting)
i never thought this could be so easy
Is there a probability playlist i liked your Chanel searched for probability??
Bae's Theorem
Bayes' Theorem clicked for me using your videos! Excellent teaching tool!
Good explanation Pat
can i simplify to 1/4
why you skip the step?
Thank you so easy to understand!!!! I'm taking a summer class and the teacher just blazes through the material cause there is a lot to cover, but this is so awesome :)
Amazing stuff, thanks Patrick :)
You sir are my hero!
Patrick is relatively loud and enthusiastic(not the right word) today
This just happens to be coincidental, try the same problem if we make the selection of P(B1) = 1/2, P(B2) = 1/4, P(B3) = 1/4. I am getting P(B1|R) = 3/7; P(B2|R) = 3/14; P(B3|R) = 5/14.
Thank you so much, very useful for me to understand
This is an awesome video!! Thank you!
Very good explanation! :D Thank you.
YOU ARE THE BEST!!!!!!
Yeahh
No beeping :)
Super helpful video. Thank You!
At 3:30, you should have checked your arithmetic, The correct answer is 2/9, not 2/8. Otherwise excellent video! Thank you!
You are wrong. It is 2/8.
It's definitely 2/8. I hope you re-checked your arithmetic Magnus.
1/9 amk ne diyonuz siz
pardon lan 2/8miş
In the first video, you calculated that the probability of drawing a red coin was 4/9. But in the second video you skipped the calculation and said that the probability of drawing a red coin was 2/8. The correct answer is 4/9.
But 4/9 is the prob that a drawn coin is red: P ( R )
And 2/8 is the chance that a red coin drawn came from bowl 1: P ( B1 | R )
Aren't those 2 different probabilites? So that means he is actually right in the video...
this video is very helpful. thank you.
How to find the probability of this video going viral, given that only 10% math videos go viral?
Well explained! thank you! 😊
nice explanation
Much appreciated.. Thank you!!
it was helpful !! thank u !!
You mathematical saint, you.
HA HAH! ... HAH HAAH!! WOHOHOHOAW! WHA HA! 13 minutes taught me more than 1 week of school
no his final result was right. It looks like you accidentally added the denominators on top instead of multiplying them. (1/3)(1/3)=(1/9) and (1/9)/(4/9)=(1/4)
i have a lot to complain about the youtube Ads..
your claim is working here because the probability of drawing the B1 is 1/3. If probability drawing of B1 was 1/2 or 1/6, result would be another value...
Perfect! Thank you!
.
Far out...ur gud man...my book makes it look like rocket science
this is great.
thanks a lot
Life saver!
thanks
thankx man
thank yoooooooou toooooooo much
The final result should be 3/8 rather than 2/8. (1/6)/(4/9)=3/8. Great lecture.
i love u!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
That seems soo much easier LOL.
how to put MULTIPLE LIKES for the same youtube video??????????????
Thank you a lot
why do you people complain on beeping? like 99% of you can't focus on what he says because of random beeping?? maybe you should test on ocd or something
you should have checked your arithmetic
just write my name in you answers, you will get full marks