Here's the link to the Lichtman prediction: www.nytimes.com/2024/09/05/opinion/allan-lichtman-trump-harris-prediction.html. And make sure to check out my DAILY politics newsletter here: chriscillizza.substack.com.
@Chriscillizza The Charisma is a reach across party lines Charisma. Trump doesn't have that. He might have had that in 2016, before people knew who he was in office. But, he has gotten older and less Charismatic.
Lichtman has said he doesn't give Trump the charisma key because even though his base loves him, he doesn't ever break above 50% support. For him a charismatic candidate is someone like Obama or Regan who has broad appeal across parties.
I agree with him there…. I think Kamala has far more charisma than I thought she would….maybe not enough for the key, but she has charisma for a broader audience.
That would be another checkbox in Harris's favor, but a good reason for it not to be a key (I actually think the keys are fluff, by the way), is that keys should be something relevant to most election cycles. Having a convicted felon as a major party candidate is unprecedented, and likely always will be, since having such candidates all the time probably means democratic governance has failed.
My concern is not Kamala winning, but Maga ready, willing, able and pre-prepared to throw buckets of sand and gravel into the gears of our electoral system. Expect Maga BS no matter what folks.
I don't think anybody gets credit for predicting a Trump win. Because of how close the election was (just shifting one half of a percent of the vote in just three states from Trump to Clinton would've given her the victory), incidental factors that could not have been reliably predicted could've shifted it one way or the other. There's every reason to believe that James Comey reopening the investigation into Clinton could've changed the outcome of the election, and so unless that specific event was anticipated, somebody predicting a Trump win might've gotten it right just because they got lucky. The correct prediction, in my opinion, would've been "too close to tell".
@@realdaybreaker80136 false keys and the incumbent party loses, and the democrats in 2016 were at exactly 6 false keys, which is how he predicted a Donald Trump win.
As you've stated, the claim is unprovable, as we don't know what the final count would have been in Florida had SCOTUS not stopped the counting. On the more general point of winning the popular vote and losing the election due to the electoral college, you would still end up with 9/10, because on that basis Hillary should have gotten the win in 2016.
Absolutely. He is totally wrong on Gore-Bush. Lichtman has imperial scientific data that Gore won. Bush won because the election was stolen. You could say the Supreme Court won because they stopped the Florida recount when Bush was ahead by only 537 votes. A majority of black male ballots were also tossed.
Prof Lichtman is Brilliant, Love listening to him he is so informative with facts..Great Guest !!!! VOTE BLUE VOTE AND LETS GET HER IN WE HAVE THE POWER !!!!!!HOPE JOY FREEDOM 🌊🌊🌊🌊🌊🌊🌊🌊🌊🌊🌊🌊🌊🌊🌊🌊🌊🌊🌊🌊🌊🌊🌊🌊
@@chesterhaduca7029 You’re wrong. You clearly didn’t listen to his reaction to Gore “losing.” Gore did win. This Supreme Court handed it to Bush. That’s NOT a win. This is why Allan says he was right on Gore/Bush too.
Chris, in your discussion of Allan's presidential election prediction model you omitted important detail that he used to define his criteria of the various keys. For example, your noted that you disagreed with his assessment of the challenger, a.k.a., Donald Trump not being charismatic, which is fine, but you mischaracterized how he defined it. He defines charisma as someone who is an inspiring once-in-a-generation figure who is "broadly appealing," such as perhaps Ronald Reagan or Barack Obama. By that standard, Trump is most certainly not charismatic, as he is widely viewed unfavorably and has very narrow appeal. You also expressed disagreement over his assessment of the economy. Allan is factually correct that we are not in a recession and that the broad fundamentals of the U.S. economy are very strong. His assessment is not based on economic perception based on opinion polls, which can and do fluctuate.
I don't understand why some people insist that Trump is "charismatic". Charisma's supposed to be an attractive quality, and while Trump does attract a certain proportion of the population, he violently repels others. Charismatic people are supposed to have the ability to win people over - Trump shuts them out unless they're already on his side. I've read that people who think about such things for a living define charisma as a blend of "power, presence and warmth". Well, Trump has the first one sewn up, the second is arguable (some are impressed by his presence, others repulsed by it), but the third is a flat, inarguable "no". Trump is cruel, vindictive, lacks empathy, only makes jokes that are mean at other people's expense ... and never, ever laughs. So I'd say it's pretty clear that whatever it is Trump has, it is not charisma.
Opinionated statements are fun but I bet there is millions that would disagree with you. When it comes to the mathematical ratio of people that agree versus disagreeing, well I disagree with you,so just myself alone kind of makes your Opinionated statement null.
@@kal330pilot oh really ? In 1992 he turned the short term economy key false , even thought the recession had ended a year prior and the economy was growing, why so? Because there was polls in which the majority of Americans believed that economy was still bad (we could a parallel with today). If he respected his own rules ., Bush would have won a second term (only 5 keys false ) by his own system so that’s 9/10. Let’s give the benefit of the doubt for 2000 because he did say that the system predicted the popular vote. But that doesn’t explain why he predicted Trump in 2016 even though he lost the popular vote. In 2020 he said that he “changed the system after 2000 too predicted the actual winner “ source : but the keys haven’t changed one bit , it’s the same criteria and he hasn’t explain what exactly he has changed so he was probably just saving face. So 8/10
@@kal330pilot he turned the short economy key false even though there was no recession just because most people thought that the economy was still bad . So Vibe-economics >> “objective real data” I guess. He if didn’t do that , Bush would have won so 9/10 . Let’s give the benefit of the doubt for the 2000 election because he said that Keys predicted the popular votes Winner but that doesn’t explain why Trump won in 2016. In a video with the New York Times in 2020 he explained that he changed the system to predict the actual winner but the system has been the same since 1984 , with the same criteria and he hasn’t explained it( he was trying to save face ) so yeah 8/10
@@JahNgomba-ir2ziNo he predicted Trump, on video. In 2000 tens of thousands of mostly African American ballots in split Florida were thrown in the garbage, and SC stopped the recount, handing it to Bush against voter will.
With all respect, pundits like Chris have a vested interest in, and therefore a possible unconscious bias toward, hyping this as an extremely tight race. It could get really tight if Harris stumbles, but based on how the campaign is going to date I don’t think it will be that close.
@@CB-vg1wq yes, an undeniably big margin would help protect against the damage to our democracy that maggots would otherwise inflict. So maybe I’m guilty of wishful thinking. But I think the current dynamic of the race points toward a comfortable Harris win.
Watch the vote margins closely in the swing states. It's going to absolutely be close based on that. Whether she marginally wins most swing states and causes her Electoral Vote count to not be close is another thing, but it wouldn't surprise me for this to be decided by < 100,000 votes in select states just like '16 and '20.
It will come down to the 1 and only debate. There is only 18 percent of the US voters that are undecided. If the Harris’ strategy of trying to make Trump lose it in the debate works, then the election may not be as close as people think. If Trump is able to hold it together, or Harris makes a huge mistake in the debate - Then the outcome will be very close.
To be fair I think Lichtmann gives the charisma key to candidates enjoying a broader appeal than just their base. He says for instance that there were Reagan Democrats, but there are no Trump Democrats.
There are no Trump Democrats? Uh, what about RFK Jr and Tulsi Gabbard? Seems like there are plenty of Trump Dems. I know that in California there are millions of them. I'm one.
@@mikeincalifornia Very few people who read this comment will believe anything it says. That, obviously, is because it makes no sense whatsoever. Plus, it is absolutely untrue.
@@mikeincalifornia Though also keep in mind that Liz Chaney has endorsed Harris, as well as 200+ staff members from Bush, McCain, and Romney who have endorsed her as well. And with that, they are both still missing that appeal that would make them charismatic. It's a very high threshold to turn that key.
I'm not sure I'm impressed. He warned that replacing Biden as the candidate would be a big mistake. It hasn't been. And now he predicts the new candidate will win. We'd still be stuck with Biden if we'd listened to him. But I am *cautiously* optimistic Harris will win.
He underlined his point good arguments. He always argues with his keys. Just look, if Biden stepped down (which he obviously did) and not immediately endorsed Kamala Harris (his VP, when he should have endorsed someone then her, because she is his VP), then there would be a massive brawl with all potential democrats who wanted to be his successor. And all of this would turn key 3 (when I am counting correctly) false, because there would be a primary contest for the candidacy of the Dems. And just turning this key would predict, according to his keys, the win of Donald Trump. Given that the foreign success and failure keys would not change. And they are looking pretty much not in favor of the Dems right now. So even Lichtmans Keys suggest a very close race. I think only a big social unrest can flip the race in favor of Trump, otherwise it will be a Harris win.
He also predicted Republicans in congress would eagerly join Democrats in impeaching Trump, The bit about replacing Biden revealed how much of a crank Lichtman is. He doesn't understand the difference between correlation and causation. You get the incumbency "key" by being a strong candidate. Going with a weak candidate just to get the key makes no sense at all. He followed up by saying Biden should resign the presidency just so the magic key will fall in Harris' hands. He's a nut. The whole "predicting 9 out of 10 elections" claim is also BS by the way.
You're speaking too soon. I think that he was right that President Biden should have not been forced out. Time will tell. I will vote for Kamala Harris but there are many Joe Biden voters especially older white voters who may not vote for Kamala Harris. That's just a fact. I hope that Kamala Harris wins but Joe Biden was polling better than she is now at this same time period in 2020.
@@walterpierce6061 I am not assuming Harris will win. But I firmly believe Biden would have lost. I guess I am the reverse of you. I was willing to vote for Biden. But I'm much happier voting for Harris. And I believe younger voters would not have turned out for Biden. My husband and I are older white voters. And we have zero regrets about the change. BUT...time will absolutely tell who was right in the end. It was always a gamble either way.
Donald Trump has a charisma , but not universal and not once in a generation charisma like Ronald Reagan , president Kennedy , Franklin rossevolt . I would say Tim Walz could be the criteria for once in a generation charisma . I think he campaigns well ?
@@josh021588To closed borders, low inflation and low unemployment, energy independence and cheap gasoline, no wars, Americas enemies fearing the US and much more.
You know guys lol you are very inspirational, just remember I said so , no matter where in the world you are today , no matter what is happening in your life , no matter the struggles, the set backs , if you are mad with someone or someone is mad with you , remember I say this, you are awesome, you have a conviction that can raise a dead dog, so from today I encouraging you to always continue to be an inspiration to someone
Chris, sometimes you’re hard to love… Here I was celebrating internally, and you go and be your Debby-Downer self… Trump is charismatic? He’s a buffoon!
Yeah, everybody can start by verifying that their voter registration is still in place. Then encourage friends/family to register or verify registration status. This is especially necessary if you are in a GOP controlled state. And it's very easy to do!
@@fdm2155 Good idea. I will make sure all my Trumper friends and family have their papers in order and will encourage them to vote early in case they are suppressed on election day! MAGA 2024
@@imperialmotoring3789 Who cares what the wealthy celebrity Donald Trump thinks? Not that he does think. By the way did you not catch the part about his track record?
Chris, there is a big difference between not being happy about inflation and being in a recession. Ask those in the unemployment line. Also, Trump is only charismatic to HIS base. Charismatic leaders must have support from both side of the isle. I agree with Lichtman on those.
Lichtman is pretty clear on the keys being data-based if you listen to him. The only polling he uses is r/t the support for 3rd party candidates. Polls suck. They are not reliable or predictive.
The professor is lying , because in 1992 he turned the short key economy false even though there was no recession but because people thought that the economy was still bad. If he didn’t turned it false , Bush would have won a second term . Seems very dishonest
Chris, I always appreciate that you can give the campaign news in a way that fully informs while not giving me existential dread like many other news sources do.
These are good news however we still need to continue fighting and moving forward! We cannot afford to sleep in our laurels. We will not go back! When we fight, we win! Kamala and Tim will win 2024!❤❤❤❤❤ love not hate
What Lichtman didn't mention was the bullshit key, where he just makes stuff up and then chooses the obvious popular vote winner. Absolute nonsense. This is like tarot cards or horoscopes.
@@BabyMaharaja0 Because polling is quite often wrong. It also may very well be missing the likelihood of young people actually voting this time. Polling takes a small sample.
@@BabyMaharaja0because the polls have been weighted in favor of the GOP ever since the inaccurate polls of 2016. Add that to the likely voters for the Democrats who are unlikely to pick up a cold call from an unknown number and therefore won't be included in the polls. Add to that the huge numbers of newly registered voters who therefore aren't likely to be called for a poll. Add all of this together and you can see how the polling is likely to be extremely wrong.
I have already liked this video and subscribed to the channel, so I am now commenting on it for the algorithm. I haven’t told ten friends about the video, because I already told them about the channel and they think I’m too political. Keep up the great content, Chris!
I saw his video, he says trump appeals to his base but no one else. He’s not charismatic. Also it doesn’t matter what people are feeling, it’s a factual matter as to whether we are in a recession.
Lichtman is a clown. His "system" is completely unscientific. As you said many of his keys are subjective. The idea that every key can give a candidate only one point, no more and no less, on every election, is ridiculous. "But he predicted it correctly so many times!" - many of them were easy to predict. In his book he claims that the keys are about predicting the popular vote, not the electoral college results. Till 2016 he (mostly) correctly guessed the popular vote results. In 2016 Trump lost the popular vote contrary to what "the keys" were predicting. But then Lichtman started to claim that the keys were actually about electoral college results so he guessed it correctly! 😁 He's a charlatan.
Everybody makes a big deal out of these 9 out of 10 predictions. I predicted 9 out of 10 myself, the only "loss" being Gore. I mean, who picked against Reagan x 2, Bush Sr., Clinton x 2, Dubyah v Kerry, Obama x 2. this is not a great feat.
His model applied retroactively is accurate all the way back to 1860 with Lincoln’s election! It cannot go back further because the Republican party did not exist prior to that. The professor’s model is incredible, and the more it is dissected, the more it is validated.
@@Mweaver1986 why do y'all always ask such a stupid question when you know damn well what she has been up to. She has been our VP for the last four years. What have you been doing basement dweller.
@@Hunterbay872 to Raticate the country to Woke country. Give housing loans to illegal aliens but she won't help the American people with their own loans what are property loans
If you want to tell us something, then write something. The juvenile little pictures (emojis) tell us nothing except that you do not know how to express your thoughts using words fashioned into sentences. Still, I have to ask. Why the little football and the yellow doggy wagging its tail?
Professor Allan Lichtman's prediction is very interesting. Something about this election reminds me of a mix between the 2008 election and the 2012 election. In 2012, Romney retained an advantage over President Barack Obama in many different polls on the questions of which candidate would better manage the economy, yet voters seemed to find President Obama’s message about fairness and boosting the middle class more agreeable than the Republican alternative. The exit polling at that time told the tale of the tape: Exit polling told us that people who wanted a candidate who "cares about people like me" voted overwhelmingly for Obama - more than 80 percent. It was the empathy factor.
Chris, the threshold to turn the charisma key is exceedingly high, as professor Lichtman has explained. A person has to have Broad, with a capital b, appeal among the electorate. A remarkable few, such as FDR and Reagan, have ever earned it and even candidates who did at one time have it on their side, like Obama, they can also subsequently lose it in reelection bids. Mr. Lichtman has also been consistent and this is now the 3rd time that Trump has failed to turn this key in his favor.
Lichtman does not say “are people happy with the economy”. He asks if the economy is good. There’s a difference. But I agree with you on the challenger charisma
This comment was written either by a 5 year old kid or by a mentally challenged person whose care giver is using picture therapy to help them express themselves. Intelligent, educated and socially mature adults do not communicate on You Tube using worthless little pictures (emojis) to express their thoughts regarding important issues such as the future of America. They use words fashioned into sentences to do that. This posting is as good of an example of internet trash as there is on You Tube.
I hope it is not a close call, because Trump will take it to the Supreme Court and the Supreme Court will not waste any time handing over the presidency to Trump. That's my worry.
Lichtman’s 13 keys are very well-defined and their applications are not subjective. You are assuming a key’s meaning based on its superficial title and your personal layman’s understanding of what the words in the title of the key mean without actually applying Lichtman’s researched and refined definitions of the key. You can opine about whether a key should really be a key, the relative importance of a key, or that something else should also be a key, but you cannot argue with Lichtman’s definitions of the existing 13 keys, as the strict application of these objective definitions is exactly what has established Lichtman’s track record of predictive success (even when he personally does not prefer the winning candidate).
Ummmm, if you give Lichman a win or 1/2 a win for Bush v Gore, by that logic you need to give him a loss for Trump v Clinton... she won the popular vote like Gore.... 🤔
He should re name it keys to the dollar tree lock. I predicted this Guy would say Harris a month ago as if you watched his videos he bashed Trump the whole time. I thought his production was supposed to me no bias. Its a crock of crap
Here's the link to the Lichtman prediction: www.nytimes.com/2024/09/05/opinion/allan-lichtman-trump-harris-prediction.html. And make sure to check out my DAILY politics newsletter here: chriscillizza.substack.com.
He has a methodology on how the keys work, your the one being subjective, if you understand the deep factors, you will see how he does it objectively,
The link requires you to purchase a subscription. Unless you're a subscriber to the New York Times, forget it.
I hate to agree with Trump but he was so right about you Chris
The free link is on UA-cam.
@Chriscillizza
The Charisma is a reach across party lines Charisma. Trump doesn't have that. He might have had that in 2016, before people knew who he was in office. But, he has gotten older and less Charismatic.
Lichtman has said he doesn't give Trump the charisma key because even though his base loves him, he doesn't ever break above 50% support. For him a charismatic candidate is someone like Obama or Regan who has broad appeal across parties.
I agree with him there…. I think Kamala has far more charisma than I thought she would….maybe not enough for the key, but she has charisma for a broader audience.
I totally agree. I just made the same point about charisma.
Donald Trump also doesn't deserve the charisma key because of how he has declined mentally since 2016. He's a mess. His mind is gone.
There is another reason why his predictions are not serious. It's all wishful thinking and rooting for Harris instead of a logical prediction
Can clowns have charisma?
Here's a new key for Allan Lichtman's model: Is the challenger a convicted felon?
Or.. Or a new key could be if the incumbent needs an emotional support "stolen valor" candidate to complete an interview.
That would be another checkbox in Harris's favor, but a good reason for it not to be a key (I actually think the keys are fluff, by the way), is that keys should be something relevant to most election cycles. Having a convicted felon as a major party candidate is unprecedented, and likely always will be, since having such candidates all the time probably means democratic governance has failed.
@@h.f.4095 oh please...
@@h.f.4095such a stretch😂
@@steveschuman4738 I'm guessing you didn't like my key suggestion?
My concern is not Kamala winning, but Maga ready, willing, able and pre-prepared to throw buckets of sand and gravel into the gears of our electoral system. Expect Maga BS no matter what folks.
Buckle up ... because that's exactly what they plan on doing.
Everyone expects exactly that. After eight years, we know them very well.
OMG....
💯
The bigger the margin by which Trump loses, the harder it will be for him to get any traction. Get out and vote.
With all due respect Chris, you don't understand the keys
Let's hope that Lichtman is right. 🙏
To make sure, VOTE 💙!
VOTE! VOTE! VOTE! Vote like your lives depended on it.
Vote like your children's lives depended on it....and it does!
Mr Lichtman would’ve been 10/10 if the 2000 election hadn’t been decided by the Supreme Court instead of the actual votes.
Bingo!
Harris will win .. 💙💙💙💙
He also predicted Trump in 2016, when no one else predicted he would win.
based on his keys? No way... Trump doest tick majority of the keys back in 2016
I don't think anybody gets credit for predicting a Trump win. Because of how close the election was (just shifting one half of a percent of the vote in just three states from Trump to Clinton would've given her the victory), incidental factors that could not have been reliably predicted could've shifted it one way or the other. There's every reason to believe that James Comey reopening the investigation into Clinton could've changed the outcome of the election, and so unless that specific event was anticipated, somebody predicting a Trump win might've gotten it right just because they got lucky. The correct prediction, in my opinion, would've been "too close to tell".
@@realdaybreaker80136 false keys and the incumbent party loses, and the democrats in 2016 were at exactly 6 false keys, which is how he predicted a Donald Trump win.
💙💙💙💙
I WAS WAITING FOR THIS!!!!! yEAH!!! tHANK youuuuuuu!
No on should care about polls or predictions- stop listening to them. Get out and vote, and get everyone you know to do the same.
Actually, it was 10 of 10. Gore did win, but for the Supreme Court blocking his victory.
As you've stated, the claim is unprovable, as we don't know what the final count would have been in Florida had SCOTUS not stopped the counting. On the more general point of winning the popular vote and losing the election due to the electoral college, you would still end up with 9/10, because on that basis Hillary should have gotten the win in 2016.
Well, then he predicted 2016 wrong. Trump lost the popular vote.
Absolutely. He is totally wrong on Gore-Bush. Lichtman has imperial scientific data that Gore won. Bush won because the election was stolen. You could say the Supreme Court won because they stopped the Florida recount when Bush was ahead by only 537 votes. A majority of black male ballots were also tossed.
He actually got the 2000 Election right. The Supreme Court gave that to Bush so he is 10/10. I’m hoping and praying that he is right now.
Get your friends and family out and VOTE everybody! 💙🇺🇸
Get the RIGHT ones out ..........those voting Kamala.
he makes sense 😂😂😂😂😂
Prof Lichtman is Brilliant, Love listening to him he is so informative with facts..Great Guest !!!! VOTE BLUE VOTE AND LETS GET HER IN WE HAVE THE POWER !!!!!!HOPE JOY FREEDOM 🌊🌊🌊🌊🌊🌊🌊🌊🌊🌊🌊🌊🌊🌊🌊🌊🌊🌊🌊🌊🌊🌊🌊🌊
Chris you should now write an apology letter to Allan once Harris wins the election.
9/10. 😂 Even if it’s perfect, prediction is a prediction. It’s a guess.
i will save this video😂😂😂😂
@@chesterhaduca7029 You’re wrong. You clearly didn’t listen to his reaction to Gore “losing.” Gore did win. This Supreme Court handed it to Bush. That’s NOT a win. This is why Allan says he was right on Gore/Bush too.
@@Priyanka.Aarya77 nope. 9/10 is his record. A miss is a miss regardless.
Chris, in your discussion of Allan's presidential election prediction model you omitted important detail that he used to define his criteria of the various keys. For example, your noted that you disagreed with his assessment of the challenger, a.k.a., Donald Trump not being charismatic, which is fine, but you mischaracterized how he defined it. He defines charisma as someone who is an inspiring once-in-a-generation figure who is "broadly appealing," such as perhaps Ronald Reagan or Barack Obama. By that standard, Trump is most certainly not charismatic, as he is widely viewed unfavorably and has very narrow appeal. You also expressed disagreement over his assessment of the economy. Allan is factually correct that we are not in a recession and that the broad fundamentals of the U.S. economy are very strong. His assessment is not based on economic perception based on opinion polls, which can and do fluctuate.
I don't understand why some people insist that Trump is "charismatic". Charisma's supposed to be an attractive quality, and while Trump does attract a certain proportion of the population, he violently repels others. Charismatic people are supposed to have the ability to win people over - Trump shuts them out unless they're already on his side. I've read that people who think about such things for a living define charisma as a blend of "power, presence and warmth". Well, Trump has the first one sewn up, the second is arguable (some are impressed by his presence, others repulsed by it), but the third is a flat, inarguable "no". Trump is cruel, vindictive, lacks empathy, only makes jokes that are mean at other people's expense ... and never, ever laughs. So I'd say it's pretty clear that whatever it is Trump has, it is not charisma.
Exactly, It’s like they equate popularity as charisma.
And trumps not popular enough to get the popular vote
Trump is the least charismatic, most repulsive person I've ever heard about.
trump is not charismatic. I find nothing likable or endearing about him. Maybe he has dark charisma being he's evil.
Opinionated statements are fun but I bet there is millions that would disagree with you. When it comes to the mathematical ratio of people that agree versus disagreeing, well I disagree with you,so just myself alone kind of makes your Opinionated statement null.
Actually, 10 out of 10 ! It's a fact
Nope , 8/10 to be realistic. In 2016 he predicted Trump to win the popular vote
@@JahNgomba-ir2zi wrong again maga. Professor always gets it right.
@@kal330pilot oh really ? In 1992 he turned the short term economy key false , even thought the recession had ended a year prior and the economy was growing, why so? Because there was polls in which the majority of Americans believed that economy was still bad (we could a parallel with today). If he respected his own rules ., Bush would have won a second term (only 5 keys false ) by his own system so that’s 9/10. Let’s give the benefit of the doubt for 2000 because he did say that the system predicted the popular vote. But that doesn’t explain why he predicted Trump in 2016 even though he lost the popular vote. In 2020 he said that he “changed the system after 2000 too predicted the actual winner “ source : but the keys haven’t changed one bit , it’s the same criteria and he hasn’t explain what exactly he has changed so he was probably just saving face. So 8/10
@@kal330pilot he turned the short economy key false even though there was no recession just because most people thought that the economy was still bad . So Vibe-economics >> “objective real data” I guess. He if didn’t do that , Bush would have won so 9/10 . Let’s give the benefit of the doubt for the 2000 election because he said that Keys predicted the popular votes Winner but that doesn’t explain why Trump won in 2016. In a video with the New York Times in 2020 he explained that he changed the system to predict the actual winner but the system has been the same since 1984 , with the same criteria and he hasn’t explained it( he was trying to save face ) so yeah 8/10
@@JahNgomba-ir2ziNo he predicted Trump, on video. In 2000 tens of thousands of mostly African American ballots in split Florida were thrown in the garbage, and SC stopped the recount, handing it to Bush against voter will.
He actually got 10/10. He explains the 2000 gore election and why it’s should be gore.
Bush was a disaster, but Gore would have been worse.
I agree absolutely!
But Gore lost
The one time I was wrong, I wasn't!
There is zero evidence that Gore did win in Florida.
2000 was given to Bush by the supreme court when Al gore really won in florida. So I would give him 100% accuracy
With all respect, pundits like Chris have a vested interest in, and therefore a possible unconscious bias toward, hyping this as an extremely tight race. It could get really tight if Harris stumbles, but based on how the campaign is going to date I don’t think it will be that close.
I hope you are right, I would love to see Harris/Walz do a strong, double digit win in swing states. tRump/Vance could not deny the win.
@@CB-vg1wq yes, an undeniably big margin would help protect against the damage to our democracy that maggots would otherwise inflict. So maybe I’m guilty of wishful thinking. But I think the current dynamic of the race points toward a comfortable Harris win.
Watch the vote margins closely in the swing states. It's going to absolutely be close based on that. Whether she marginally wins most swing states and causes her Electoral Vote count to not be close is another thing, but it wouldn't surprise me for this to be decided by < 100,000 votes in select states just like '16 and '20.
It will come down to the 1 and only debate. There is only 18 percent of the US voters that are undecided. If the Harris’ strategy of trying to make Trump lose it in the debate works, then the election may not be as close as people think. If Trump is able to hold it together, or Harris makes a huge mistake in the debate - Then the outcome will be very close.
84,88,92,96,08, and 12 were no brainers. What's the big deal he has picked 9 out 10 right?
This guy is so full of himself.. he said it would be bad for the democrats to replace Biden..
Yes because of incumbent key ,but since Democrats all came behind Kamala , that problem is resolved party is united
He did. And still thinks so. But he also says that if the Democrats maintain the Contest key, they can still keep the White House.
Thank god i knew he would give it to Haris. That doesn't mean we stop fighting to defeat Trump.
Many years ago, a famous newspaper thought Dewey had beaten Truman.
To be fair I think Lichtmann gives the charisma key to candidates enjoying a broader appeal than just their base. He says for instance that there were Reagan Democrats, but there are no Trump Democrats.
There are no Trump Democrats? Uh, what about RFK Jr and Tulsi Gabbard? Seems like there are plenty of Trump Dems. I know that in California there are millions of them. I'm one.
@@mikeincaliforniathen you aren't a Democrat you're just an independent (and also low information voter)
@@mikeincaliforniaRFK ran as an independent
@@mikeincalifornia Very few people who read this comment will believe anything it says. That, obviously, is because it makes no sense whatsoever. Plus, it is absolutely untrue.
@@mikeincalifornia Though also keep in mind that Liz Chaney has endorsed Harris, as well as 200+ staff members from Bush, McCain, and Romney who have endorsed her as well. And with that, they are both still missing that appeal that would make them charismatic. It's a very high threshold to turn that key.
I'm not sure I'm impressed. He warned that replacing Biden as the candidate would be a big mistake. It hasn't been. And now he predicts the new candidate will win. We'd still be stuck with Biden if we'd listened to him.
But I am *cautiously* optimistic Harris will win.
He underlined his point good arguments. He always argues with his keys. Just look, if Biden stepped down (which he obviously did) and not immediately endorsed Kamala Harris (his VP, when he should have endorsed someone then her, because she is his VP), then there would be a massive brawl with all potential democrats who wanted to be his successor. And all of this would turn key 3 (when I am counting correctly) false, because there would be a primary contest for the candidacy of the Dems. And just turning this key would predict, according to his keys, the win of Donald Trump. Given that the foreign success and failure keys would not change. And they are looking pretty much not in favor of the Dems right now. So even Lichtmans Keys suggest a very close race. I think only a big social unrest can flip the race in favor of Trump, otherwise it will be a Harris win.
He also predicted Republicans in congress would eagerly join Democrats in impeaching Trump,
The bit about replacing Biden revealed how much of a crank Lichtman is. He doesn't understand the difference between correlation and causation. You get the incumbency "key" by being a strong candidate. Going with a weak candidate just to get the key makes no sense at all.
He followed up by saying Biden should resign the presidency just so the magic key will fall in Harris' hands. He's a nut.
The whole "predicting 9 out of 10 elections" claim is also BS by the way.
Because he doesnt think giving away a key is smart and that gave away the incumbent key.
You're speaking too soon.
I think that he was right that President Biden should have not been forced out.
Time will tell.
I will vote for Kamala Harris but there are many Joe Biden voters especially older white voters who may not vote for Kamala Harris.
That's just a fact.
I hope that Kamala Harris wins but Joe Biden was polling better than she is now at this same time period in 2020.
@@walterpierce6061 I am not assuming Harris will win. But I firmly believe Biden would have lost. I guess I am the reverse of you. I was willing to vote for Biden. But I'm much happier voting for Harris. And I believe younger voters would not have turned out for Biden. My husband and I are older white voters. And we have zero regrets about the change. BUT...time will absolutely tell who was right in the end. It was always a gamble either way.
This is certainly great news!
I always worry, voters will stay home when they hear prognosticators.
Lichtman is MORE right this time than he has ever been.
Yep and polling is always right. Cough 2016
Love Allan. Watch his lives every week. YAY! Kamala 2024. 💙💙💙💙💙🥳🥳🥳🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸
Awesome!!! she's the only candidate qualified for the Presidency...
Thanks Chris!
Donald Trump has a charisma , but not universal and not once in a generation charisma like Ronald Reagan , president Kennedy , Franklin rossevolt .
I would say Tim Walz could be the criteria for once in a generation charisma . I think he campaigns well ?
WE ARE NOT GOING BACK
Going back to what?
@@josh021588To closed borders, low inflation and low unemployment, energy independence and cheap gasoline, no wars, Americas enemies fearing the US and much more.
@@petert330
Why wouldn’t anyone want to go back to better times?!
A WIN is a WIN regardless how ‘close’ the election is, and Kamala is going to WIN 🎉💙🇺🇸
You know guys lol you are very inspirational, just remember I said so , no matter where in the world you are today , no matter what is happening in your life , no matter the struggles, the set backs , if you are mad with someone or someone is mad with you , remember I say this, you are awesome, you have a conviction that can raise a dead dog, so from today I encouraging you to always continue to be an inspiration to someone
Chris, sometimes you’re hard to love… Here I was celebrating internally, and you go and be your Debby-Downer self… Trump is charismatic? He’s a buffoon!
You’re looking super dapper! This was a fun video! Thanks for all you do!❤❤❤
“Do Something” - Michelle Obama
VOTE!
Who cares what that wealthy celebrity has to say.
Yeah, everybody can start by verifying that their voter registration is still in place. Then encourage friends/family to register or verify registration status. This is especially necessary if you are in a GOP controlled state. And it's very easy to do!
@@fdm2155 Good idea. I will make sure all my Trumper friends and family have their papers in order and will encourage them to vote early in case they are suppressed on election day!
MAGA 2024
@@imperialmotoring3789 Who cares what the wealthy celebrity Donald Trump thinks? Not that he does think. By the way did you not catch the part about his track record?
I've been waiting for his prediction, this gives me hope but we all need to get out and vote
Haha this guy I don’t trust him, he said few months ago it was Biden , then said Kamala and then said he will revisit again 😅
Chris, there is a big difference between not being happy about inflation and being in a recession. Ask those in the unemployment line. Also, Trump is only charismatic to HIS base. Charismatic leaders must have support from both side of the isle. I agree with Lichtman on those.
Kamala is only charismatic to democrats.😂
Thank you for the explanation of how to read those keys.
Lichtman is pretty clear on the keys being data-based if you listen to him. The only polling he uses is r/t the support for 3rd party candidates. Polls suck. They are not reliable or predictive.
The professor is lying , because in 1992 he turned the short key economy false even though there was no recession but because people thought that the economy was still bad. If he didn’t turned it false , Bush would have won a second term . Seems very dishonest
His prediction will influence at least .05% of the electorate in favor of Harris
Chris, I always appreciate that you can give the campaign news in a way that fully informs while not giving me existential dread like many other news sources do.
Litchman's "keys" are interesting, as is his track record. With that said, just vote!
Isn't there an octopus who predicted who would win the Superbowl? Yeah, that's what I thought.
These are good news however we still need to continue fighting and moving forward! We cannot afford to sleep in our laurels. We will not go back! When we fight, we win! Kamala and Tim will win 2024!❤❤❤❤❤ love not hate
What Lichtman didn't mention was the bullshit key, where he just makes stuff up and then chooses the obvious popular vote winner. Absolute nonsense. This is like tarot cards or horoscopes.
10 out of 10
But will she win fairly?
There's nothing more pathetic than a reality TV show celebrity who has lost his mojo. He's got nothing left.
Then why is Harris polling much worse than Hilary and Biden in 2016 and 2020?
He still has almost half the country...
@@BabyMaharaja0the democrats have had enough of the nomination bs... the blind support has withered...
@@BabyMaharaja0 Because polling is quite often wrong. It also may very well be missing the likelihood of young people actually voting this time. Polling takes a small sample.
@@BabyMaharaja0because the polls have been weighted in favor of the GOP ever since the inaccurate polls of 2016. Add that to the likely voters for the Democrats who are unlikely to pick up a cold call from an unknown number and therefore won't be included in the polls. Add to that the huge numbers of newly registered voters who therefore aren't likely to be called for a poll. Add all of this together and you can see how the polling is likely to be extremely wrong.
I have already liked this video and subscribed to the channel, so I am now commenting on it for the algorithm. I haven’t told ten friends about the video, because I already told them about the channel and they think I’m too political. Keep up the great content, Chris!
I saw his video, he says trump appeals to his base but no one else. He’s not charismatic. Also it doesn’t matter what people are feeling, it’s a factual matter as to whether we are in a recession.
Trump is not charismatic, except for his shrinking MAGA base everybody else can’t stand him
Shrinking? According to polls , Trump is more popular than in 2016 and 2020
You are always awesome in your reporting
He explains charisma as someone that appeals to both sides. Trump does not appeal to the left. He is super divisive.
Lichtman is a clown. His "system" is completely unscientific. As you said many of his keys are subjective. The idea that every key can give a candidate only one point, no more and no less, on every election, is ridiculous.
"But he predicted it correctly so many times!" - many of them were easy to predict. In his book he claims that the keys are about predicting the popular vote, not the electoral college results. Till 2016 he (mostly) correctly guessed the popular vote results. In 2016 Trump lost the popular vote contrary to what "the keys" were predicting. But then Lichtman started to claim that the keys were actually about electoral college results so he guessed it correctly! 😁 He's a charlatan.
I love your enthousiasm! It can move mountain!
Excellent you’re re teaching at Georgetown!
The professors prediction will only be accurate if we get out and vote! Early, absentee, or in person!
Chris, according ro ABC recent poll, Trump has a 58% un favorability and a 12 % gap with Harris. How can he still be charismatic and not her?
Everybody makes a big deal out of these 9 out of 10 predictions. I predicted 9 out of 10 myself, the only "loss" being Gore. I mean, who picked against Reagan x 2, Bush Sr., Clinton x 2, Dubyah v Kerry, Obama x 2. this is not a great feat.
His model applied retroactively is accurate all the way back to 1860 with Lincoln’s election! It cannot go back further because the Republican party did not exist prior to that. The professor’s model is incredible, and the more it is dissected, the more it is validated.
Leave it to Allan. He’s the expert. Not you.
Vote blue for harris 💙 🙌 god bless America 💙 🙌 🇺🇸 🙏🏽 I'm tired of trump let's get rid of trump for good people
What has she done? In 3 years
What is her agenda? I m asking as independent voter.
@@Mweaver1986 why do y'all always ask such a stupid question when you know damn well what she has been up to. She has been our VP for the last four years. What have you been doing basement dweller.
@@Hunterbay872 to Raticate the country to Woke country. Give housing loans to illegal aliens but she won't help the American people with their own loans what are property loans
@@Hunterbay872 Go and listen to her interview with Dana Bash. She discusses her ideas.
Good summary. There are lots of possibilities with this election.
Freedom! 💙🇺🇸🗽🐈🏈
If you want to tell us something, then write something. The juvenile little pictures (emojis) tell us nothing except that you do not know how to express your thoughts using words fashioned into sentences. Still, I have to ask. Why the little football and the yellow doggy wagging its tail?
You're awsome!
Challenger charisma key is if the candidate is widely appealing to BOTH parties. Think FDR, Obama, Reagan, not DJT.
You forgot George Washington. And Zachary Taylor.
Lichtman is such a Charlatan
You said trump is charismatic???CRAZY yes!!!
He missed one and he will miss this one.
Professor Allan Lichtman's prediction is very interesting. Something about this election reminds me of a mix between the 2008 election and the 2012 election. In 2012, Romney retained an advantage over President Barack Obama in many different polls on the questions of which candidate would better manage the economy, yet voters seemed to find President Obama’s message about fairness and boosting the middle class more agreeable than the Republican alternative. The exit polling at that time told the tale of the tape: Exit polling told us that people who wanted a candidate who "cares about people like me" voted overwhelmingly for Obama - more than 80 percent. It was the empathy factor.
Chris, the threshold to turn the charisma key is exceedingly high, as professor Lichtman has explained. A person has to have Broad, with a capital b, appeal among the electorate. A remarkable few, such as FDR and Reagan, have ever earned it and even candidates who did at one time have it on their side, like Obama, they can also subsequently lose it in reelection bids. Mr. Lichtman has also been consistent and this is now the 3rd time that Trump has failed to turn this key in his favor.
i agree with the charisma and short term economy keys, which puts it at the same place as all of the polls, really close.
Lichtman does not say “are people happy with the economy”. He asks if the economy is good. There’s a difference. But I agree with you on the challenger charisma
With the charisma factor, maybe lichtman is leaning on the favorability numbers
I hope you are right!
Harris/Walz! 2024 🇺🇸💙🗳️
🔵🔵🔵🔵🔵🔵🔵🔵🔵
This comment was written either by a 5 year old kid or by a mentally challenged person whose care giver is using picture therapy to help them express themselves. Intelligent, educated and socially mature adults do not communicate on You Tube using worthless little pictures (emojis) to express their thoughts regarding important issues such as the future of America. They use words fashioned into sentences to do that. This posting is as good of an example of internet trash as there is on You Tube.
Nate Silver provided an excellent critique of Lichtman back in 2011. Look up “Despite Keys Obama Is No Lock”
Right or wrong it is a new twist. Thank you.
And we all love new twists.
I hope it is not a close call, because Trump will take it to the Supreme Court and the Supreme Court will not waste any time handing over the presidency to Trump. That's my worry.
Not subjective but Judgemental.
Take nothing for granted, go out and vote. Harris 2024💙
Happy to subscribe.
It’s good to see someone challenging Lichtman’s prediction.
That happens every four years and even with that he is still right in the end
A lot of pollsters and pundits challenge Lichtman’s predictions. But, the guy called it right in 2016 when polls and supposed pundits said Hillary.
He accurately predicted Trump win in 2016 when Hillary was way ahead in the polls
Lichtman’s 13 keys are very well-defined and their applications are not subjective. You are assuming a key’s meaning based on its superficial title and your personal layman’s understanding of what the words in the title of the key mean without actually applying Lichtman’s researched and refined definitions of the key. You can opine about whether a key should really be a key, the relative importance of a key, or that something else should also be a key, but you cannot argue with Lichtman’s definitions of the existing 13 keys, as the strict application of these objective definitions is exactly what has established Lichtman’s track record of predictive success (even when he personally does not prefer the winning candidate).
Ummmm, if you give Lichman a win or 1/2 a win for Bush v Gore, by that logic you need to give him a loss for Trump v Clinton... she won the popular vote like Gore.... 🤔
Trump 2024. My dog who likes cheese told me that Kamala win American Got Talent for best impersonator.
There needs to be a clear out of MAGA from the House of Representatives in November
He should re name it keys to the dollar tree lock. I predicted this Guy would say Harris a month ago as if you watched his videos he bashed Trump the whole time. I thought his production was supposed to me no bias. Its a crock of crap
Hey Chris, how about a spot on how a Trump jail term in NY will affect the election outcome?
Trump has charisma, 😂 good one! 😂