I found your channel a couple of days ago and must say this is probably the strongest free poker content out there. Very curious about your paid material
Reminds me of Bridge. There are a lot of rules coming out of expert play: cover an honour with an honour, 2nd plays low - 3rd plays high, etc. but ironically you can't play like an expert by just following these rules. You have to understand how the rules well enough to relate them to the particular hand you are playing and see if they apply.
The thing about river bet sizing though at low/micro stakes is that im convinced that population over-fold significantly to jam but over-call to pot-sized bets (or less) when they have called flop and turn. So whilst in theory you want to be balanced with your value and bluffs, I find its better to exploitatively jam with bluffs and bet pot with thick value. I do take the point though that some people significantly under-value hands. The number of times i see people bet 1/3rd pot on river with sets or better is ridiculous
@@DriveandThrive I’m still in a player pool of monkey 1/2 recs so I know I literally never need to bluff but I’ll still find myself check raising 9 high gutshots on the turn or some bullshit every now and again and I just get reminded why I shouldn’t bluff when I get snap called down by A4o on AKTJ6
@@DriveandThriveunbalanced regs likely and some fish. The only problem is, anonymous pool. Basically there are fish fish, easy to spot. Aggro donks, who play almost exactly like nits with the nuts. Nits, who play almost exactly like the aggro donks,when they have the nuts. And a smattering of other player types. Mega stations, easy enough, hard to identify, play similarly to fish fish with a good hand. And The guy who is all in no matter what, very hard to differentiate from the spew fish, nits, and aggro donks. So yeah, keeps you on your toes, makes the game exciting I guess.
Yup half pot is overbluffed by fish other coaches I follow like Saulo Costa has shown that in Hand2Note. On boards that has lots of missed flush draws and straight draws calling with ace high can be profitable fish can't help but bluff 7 high on the river it's a matter of they understand that instinctively.
Protection betting ruins your range mostly. Your opponent can just say, well my opponent checked so he never has top pair on this board. Which leads to them absolutely destroying you for value when you have second pair for example. Not to mention all the bluffs he can now get away with. Hard to see what these bets are really protecting you from all things considered. They seem to in-fact massively expose you.
The other problem with betting small when you've got the nuts is it leaves your river overbetting range underprotected and altogether too bluff heavy. Good players will learn to hero call your overbets. If you try to compensate by overbetting with fewer bluffs, it's not going to work very well, because you still don't have many value hands in that spot so you're still getting called. So the only solution, really, is to be balanced by overbetting both your strong hands, and your bluffs.
Point 3 discusses the merit of going from max value instead of max frequency on the river. I understand this point completely however when you suggest that we cannot presume that are opponent will only call with second pair, can we not make the same argument about presuming our opponent will call off his stack for arbitrary reasons? I feel that I have literally never once had a single river jam called without my opponent being at the absolute top of their range. However I get numerous calls when I bet one third pot by all sorts of second pair hands or who knows what when they muck to my top pair middle kicker value bet
We don’t want to make either assumption but if we abstain from all assumptions about which sizes pool will call with which hands then the theoretical way to maximise EV is to bet big hands very large unless we think our smaller bets are getting raised at a high frequency. This happen a lot for example vs more polar ranges. Normally though villain is condensed after calling previous bets and so the large sizing maximises EV. There is a proof of this in the Carrot Poker School Grade 2 Lecture 6.
Touching on point number 4, I have a feeling I'm often betting too small a sizing on the river as the player with the nut advantage. I'll bet river 1-2x pot and then after the hand think "I wonder if I could or should have simply gone all in for 3x/5x/10x pot?" What holds me back in-game from pulling the trigger is that I don't know how to construct my bluffs in such a river spot vs real life opponents and therefore I'm too reserved in-game to ever risk that much money in what is for me an unexplored part of the game tree. I'm intimidated to try studying this with a solver on my own, in case I overlook an important detail and then punt huge amounts of money in-game without realizing I'm punting. I don't want to be this reserved and would love to confidently take the next step in this regard. I'm really looking forward to our upcoming coaching sessions together Pete. I'd like to think we can get me on the right path to executing on the above like a crusher.
one situation that almost always would call for a massive sizing on the river is when the bulk of the possible nuts haven't changed on the turn or river. something like AQ372 as the preflop raiser, where the solver will use everbets on every street forcing villain to call a lot of marginal top pairs and such. I could be wrong about this second point but I'd be careful using too much 3x pot+, you would likely lose a lot of EV with your nutted hands not getting paid off
Amazing video! I feel like most of these examples are most likely the thought processes of a lot of weak/bad regs, a must know to be able to exploit them! I hope one day you would like to make a video about the top 5/10 bad poker thoughts of mid/high stake regs ❤
I found your channel a couple of days ago and must say this is probably the strongest free poker content out there. Very curious about your paid material
Reminds me of Bridge. There are a lot of rules coming out of expert play: cover an honour with an honour, 2nd plays low - 3rd plays high, etc. but ironically you can't play like an expert by just following these rules. You have to understand how the rules well enough to relate them to the particular hand you are playing and see if they apply.
The thing about river bet sizing though at low/micro stakes is that im convinced that population over-fold significantly to jam but over-call to pot-sized bets (or less) when they have called flop and turn. So whilst in theory you want to be balanced with your value and bluffs, I find its better to exploitatively jam with bluffs and bet pot with thick value. I do take the point though that some people significantly under-value hands. The number of times i see people bet 1/3rd pot on river with sets or better is ridiculous
Suffering from -EV decisions when trying to be balanced is something that I deal with constantly
are you playing against tough regs? or recs mainly?
@@DriveandThrive I’m still in a player pool of monkey 1/2 recs so I know I literally never need to bluff but I’ll still find myself check raising 9 high gutshots on the turn or some bullshit every now and again and I just get reminded why I shouldn’t bluff when I get snap called down by A4o on AKTJ6
Hello me
@@DriveandThriveunbalanced regs likely and some fish.
The only problem is, anonymous pool.
Basically there are fish fish, easy to spot.
Aggro donks, who play almost exactly like nits with the nuts.
Nits, who play almost exactly like the aggro donks,when they have the nuts.
And a smattering of other player types.
Mega stations, easy enough, hard to identify, play similarly to fish fish with a good hand.
And
The guy who is all in no matter what, very hard to differentiate from the spew fish, nits, and aggro donks.
So yeah, keeps you on your toes, makes the game exciting I guess.
Yup half pot is overbluffed by fish other coaches I follow like Saulo Costa has shown that in Hand2Note. On boards that has lots of missed flush draws and straight draws calling with ace high can be profitable fish can't help but bluff 7 high on the river it's a matter of they understand that instinctively.
If you gave a solver infinite sizings possible on every street, how would it decide on a size do you think?
Protection betting ruins your range mostly. Your opponent can just say, well my opponent checked so he never has top pair on this board. Which leads to them absolutely destroying you for value when you have second pair for example. Not to mention all the bluffs he can now get away with. Hard to see what these bets are really protecting you from all things considered. They seem to in-fact massively expose you.
Nice video. Question: do you think betting for protection gets more EV on lower stakes considering people dont raise as a bluff enough?
Congrats on 10k subs!
The other problem with betting small when you've got the nuts is it leaves your river overbetting range underprotected and altogether too bluff heavy. Good players will learn to hero call your overbets. If you try to compensate by overbetting with fewer bluffs, it's not going to work very well, because you still don't have many value hands in that spot so you're still getting called. So the only solution, really, is to be balanced by overbetting both your strong hands, and your bluffs.
Point 3 discusses the merit of going from max value instead of max frequency on the river. I understand this point completely however when you suggest that we cannot presume that are opponent will only call with second pair, can we not make the same argument about presuming our opponent will call off his stack for arbitrary reasons? I feel that I have literally never once had a single river jam called without my opponent being at the absolute top of their range. However I get numerous calls when I bet one third pot by all sorts of second pair hands or who knows what when they muck to my top pair middle kicker value bet
We don’t want to make either assumption but if we abstain from all assumptions about which sizes pool will call with which hands then the theoretical way to maximise EV is to bet big hands very large unless we think our smaller bets are getting raised at a high frequency. This happen a lot for example vs more polar ranges. Normally though villain is condensed after calling previous bets and so the large sizing maximises EV. There is a proof of this in the Carrot Poker School Grade 2 Lecture 6.
When is the developing mind control skill course coming out?
When does Grade E come out 😢😢😢
Touching on point number 4, I have a feeling I'm often betting too small a sizing on the river as the player with the nut advantage. I'll bet river 1-2x pot and then after the hand think "I wonder if I could or should have simply gone all in for 3x/5x/10x pot?" What holds me back in-game from pulling the trigger is that I don't know how to construct my bluffs in such a river spot vs real life opponents and therefore I'm too reserved in-game to ever risk that much money in what is for me an unexplored part of the game tree. I'm intimidated to try studying this with a solver on my own, in case I overlook an important detail and then punt huge amounts of money in-game without realizing I'm punting. I don't want to be this reserved and would love to confidently take the next step in this regard.
I'm really looking forward to our upcoming coaching sessions together Pete. I'd like to think we can get me on the right path to executing on the above like a crusher.
one situation that almost always would call for a massive sizing on the river is when the bulk of the possible nuts haven't changed on the turn or river. something like AQ372 as the preflop raiser, where the solver will use everbets on every street forcing villain to call a lot of marginal top pairs and such. I could be wrong about this second point but I'd be careful using too much 3x pot+, you would likely lose a lot of EV with your nutted hands not getting paid off
5x-10x pot? WTF are you on about?
Amazing video!
I feel like most of these examples are most likely the thought processes of a lot of weak/bad regs, a must know to be able to exploit them!
I hope one day you would like to make a video about the top 5/10 bad poker thoughts of mid/high stake regs ❤
some of these definitely still apply to 5/10 players, or even marginally above. If you don't think so, you're missing out on some value and exploits.
Excellent as always Pete! I'm gonna need a massive lifestyle change to catch these 2am streams.
how does one find your discord :D
dont see it anywhere
It’s only for CPS buyers and private one to one students I’m afraid. The simple answer is: spend money!
Just keep posting this stuffs man tight tight tight
My win rate is -10bb per 100 hands 😭😭
20k hands, it's just variance 😍
Time to find another pastime.
@@faulrevere8938 lol, I will be winning soon
Dont forget to bet for protection whale regs.
quite some gems
So.much.camera.shaking.
Subbed just because you trolled American rugby rofl.
It’s a dumb game though to be fair
How dare you
Unsub after the football slander /s