So it looks like this is the time to be accumulating more so I won't have to worry about BTC reaching 200k. I'll just have to grow my portfolio out twice as much. So here's my question: If BTC were to reach down to 25k, could ETH get down to 1k?
Ben's got to be one of the most bearish guys on UA-cam but he's also the most realistic .... it's a gut punch when someone you trust tells you that you might have to wait 3 more years for 100k lol . That's would suck.
Some people, unlike Ben, are selling 500k bitcoin nonsense, just to pump their own bags. Bitcoin may get to Zero, as it depends on to many parameters. In fact all tokens are unecessary. tech is something else, though
considering 99.99% of youtubers are massive shills he does not have much competition...the people that are actually making money have been closing their positions on crypto since January while convincing the masses to load up. The last time ben brought crypto it was at 12k, his average is a lot lower
@@scottfree6479 Same with new alts in every cycle "they offer more, BTC is old and slow, etc" but most alts are just empty promises or eventually have a lot of downsides. Perhaps one day something will flip with BTC, but BTC will not stay under 100K, let alone 50K, unless the whole interest in the crypto market disappears.
If it sucks, maybe you should examine the question why? Maybe your financial management needs tightening up to make it less suck? Remember, the good investor can profit in any enviroment. There is more than one asset. Never invest money you have to pay the bills with.
@@MrjavoiThe "If it isn't dead already" Someone give this man an award for the most FUD statement in the comments. Crypto isn't dying or anywhere near it. The technological benefits and utility for some sectors is undeniably effective. The flexibility and tools being provided by some crypto are literally enabling the economies of some nations. If you knew anything about the crap you're likely buying and investing in, you'd know this isn't all just some "get rich quick" bs. But I doubt you're that dumb. You probably just wanna play a small part in scaring the price down so you can buy up a better dip. You aren't a clown, you're the whole circus.
The idea of the "peak" being out in 2023 interestingly plays into a superposition with the next halving. Thinking of it like a phase shift where the bull market lengthens to the point where it finally lines up to the next halving almost sounds like a case for the supercycle theory as well, although it means a much longer duration in order to compound the effects of momentum plus doubled scarcity.
@@jerrydesu we don't have enough history to say that. So far there were only 2 real cycles. 1 saw a more than 70% retracement, 1 didn't. So historically speaking 50% of the cycles had a more than 70% retracement in their bull phase
Exactly. I dont care what the price of BTC is. It will eventually go up and make us money. Its my out-of-top-10 altcoins like Polygon, Rune & Cake that im worried about
@@EaglesWind1 I am exactly the same. Even a rally to $40k would do it for me. Please, please Bitcoin come to my alts rescue one last time! I fear the bounce to $41k the other day was our chance though....
@@EaglesWind1 alts will be crush on the way up and down as seen done in the past when the whales decide fit. I honestly just exited my alts to preserve my BTC gains. When the market is too volatile, alts get crushed.
You have just become the perfect youtube channel for crypto in my mind. Thanks this was so great! I am a newb who bought everything at ATHs - time to face the music!
Yeah. Too many indicators and economy at large tell me to at least play this as an end to the bull cycle... I mean even if it pumps to 100K the upside potential reward isn't worth the risk. And back to the indicators... stocks over extended, economic outlook in disposable income horrible (student loans return to repayment after September), wages haven't budged to the extent many are going back to school, and states that are abandoning Fed's extra $300 early in some vein attempt to whip the serfs back to work... unlikely to work for several reasons, firstly these states own unemployment benefits are horrible already, secondly these states have had their rents and home prices surge dislocating these people, they don't live there no more. Their new residents already have jobs, they're remote working. Fact of the matter to get workers, the wage must increase, which most companies are unwilling, smaller companies maybe unable, to do. Long run, I suspect many of the remote workers will be identified as redundant and unnecessary or ineffective thus laid off or provided an ultimatum to return to the domicile or quit. Anyway, economic situation doesn't support this bull run for now to continue and only gets more bleak as fall comes. Safer to be conservative, trade ranges while they form and for a short period. But don't dollar cost hold at these levels. Still make some money yet not risk the loss of stuck purchases at what will be ridiculous priced in an ultimate bear market. You DCA in a long bear market when you even think the stuff is a joke and think you're crazy. Not now. All you can do is swing trade or stay out and wait for low bottom to DCA. And you don't time the bottom... you wait for one to form: Hits a bottom watch it bounce and retrace... does it hold? Mean time you can trade a range of that. Always get out early on the high of the range. For long bear bottom, it will just range trade at that level for extended period, and its safe to start dollar cost averaging on retracement lower of the range.
I’m looking forward to making some gains this cycle, so I can reinvest it during the bear market next cycle haha. I see myself coming to this channel everyday until then. 💚
Ben can you make a video thats explains Whats THE prices of Ada And ETH Will be if THE bearish secenerio plays out ? Lets say bitcoin at 22000 - 25000 . Thanks yout THE best 💪🏽
I'm new to the market and I'm just trying to learn as much as I can, love your videos so far. What if Bitcoin just never reaches six figures forever? What are the chances of something like this happening? Everybody I watch obviously seems to have such confidence in crypto long term, but I'm sure anything is possible. Could be a stupid question but I'm new to the scene
Just by looking at the history of btc/crypto which has been going up, and current trends such as the adoption of btc by institutions and growing mining operations which has caused gpu shortages.
My advice to you would be to learn what all this tech can be used for. Listen to developers and people that use it for legitimate purposes. Crypto is about far more than making money and not enough people understand that
Love your content Ben. Really appreciate the time based models and analysis. Could you please consider working in some dollar based models? I think people would be interested to see how a $100k BTC means adding $1.2 trillion to the market cap in BTC alone, and how that looks in a model versus historic data; versus BTC dominance, etc. I believe this data will reinforce the lengthening cycle trend. Thanks again.
Ben, I love your analysis! Just wanted to know what happens to Eth and other alts during this time since Bitcoin backs above the support band of bull market?
I hear you, and I promise you...stay the course and you’ll come out right. This isn’t about swinging for the fences. For all of us, its about slowly staking your claim right here and now in something that is going to change the world in your lifetime.
3 роки тому
Hi Benjamin! How to find the log scale that you are using? With the green and red band. Thanks.
At the end of the day, 𝕥𝕚𝕞𝕖 𝕚𝕤 𝕠𝕟 𝕠𝕦𝕣 𝕤𝕚𝕕𝕖, so I'm at the beach having my strawberry daiquiri, relaxing & waiting for the next ⓡⓐⓛⓛⓨ to happen.............. one day. 😎
Hey Ben, been binging your content as someone who recently started investing (not the best time but oh well). I recently found out about the shenanigans Tether has been pulling in regards to not having 1USDT being backed by a USD, do you think Tether being potentially outed in the future does anything for crypto long term? Thanks!
Tether was definitely questionable, but regulators did their job and forced the project to prove its backing. That seems to have happened, but issue cast doubts on whether Tether has trustworthy management.
@@narwhaltacos2197 makes sense. I'm still a bit vary of their breakdown to be honest, what even does commercial paper mean? Either way, I hope if and when they get outed it doesn't affect the market massively
I dont think we can realistically use the March 2020 crash as a possibility to hit 20k... that capitulation was almost entirely related to Covid and I personally would consider it an outlier. If we assumed that we moved sideways there instead of tanking, I think that would make more sense for an elongated accumulation phase during this bull market before a final push upwards. I also think that this accumulation phase (if it plays out) will be the bottom for the next 'bear market'
I just want to throw in sth: the next two years will be very good on the stock market. They usually are after government stimuli. Most major companies early in the value chain (chemicals) have raised their expectations. 2023 though there is a chance that interest might go up. This would also hit Bitcoin. I am banking on a peak in 2022 when stock market is at its height due to money inflow.
You're the man Ben! I'm sure you get other comments questioning your strategy and thought process but if it was my comment on your video a few days ago that made you make some of these comments..... You've pretty much answered ALL my questions/comments in this video. I wasn't judging you on what you said in that video. I was just looking for a little more reasoning behind it. I still don't think we will go down to $20k.... Maybe $24-25k? for a brief moment (a day or two) in the big picture. But what's the likelihood that it could go that low and still put in a new ATH by the end of the year? Setting it up for the longer bull run you've been talking about for 2022? I never said it will break 100k this year but I do feel it could definitely put in a new ATH before year end. What do you think buddy?
Yea, sometimes I wonder if Bitcoin's cycles will change. Instead of busting out 100G in 2021, then waiting past 2024 til next halving for next br, maybe we'll hit 80k this Christmas, then 100k next Fall,
Ben your historical analysis is fantastic to explain what already has happened however as you realize fundamentals and unexpected events or black swans are more than rare occurances for this new asset class
My 2 cents worth is a new ATH won't happen until August 2021 with 100k reached around December 2021. Top would be 140k in March 2022. I have no idea where this correction will bottom. That would fulfil your 'diminished return and lengthening cycle' thesis which I'm on boars with.
If it plays out the same way as the last bull run then can we predict that Bitcoin will peak at the end of August? because from the halving in that bull run to the top was 15 months. 15 months from the last halving will be the end of August.
You’re new to this channel...each cycle so far has taken slightly longer than the last. Which should mean this cycle should end sometime around January-February of 2022. Obviously there’s no guarantee of that , but that’s just been the trend so far.
Ben is really being a negative Nancy, bad news Bear, at some point always focusing on the possible negative outcome will effect what will actually happen in the end, you will "summon" it in to existence (not to mention if you have 400k followers, a snowball rolling down the mountain can start an avalanche)
@@strangerinastrangeland8026 he is not being negative. i would place Ben as being the most objective and unbiased person i follow. he just talks about what the data shows.
@@SimonMetin I know man, and I agree. I'm just slowly losing my mind a bit looking at the charts xD because it really looks like we are going straight head first in to the wood chipper!
What would this mean for the alts?? Will they follow than? I’m in big red numbers at the moment.. So: is this just for Bitcoin or will they act close to Bitcoin?
It may have some lengthening, but if it doesn't peak by spring 2022, it seems too long and not enough time for the usual bear/bull cycle. Seems too radically different and not enough time for the bear market consolidation phase prior to the next bull run. Also don't think we'll see a 300K peak this bull run. More likely between 100K-200K. If we've already peaked, seems really a fuddy duddy cycle, especially considering all the recent adoption. So most likely it got a little ahead of itself and now it's just adjusting back to where it should be.
In a market where everyone is watching trends and looking for patterns the only sure thing is patterns won't keep repeating. Unless you expect people to be looking for patterns but NOT trying to profit off them.
@@andrzejudalski7081 if you do your research you'll find that pretty much any pattern you see on a chart has a fancy name. You could sit there and say "Wyckoff distribution! This proves that markets are predictable!" but you're just ignoring the thousands of theories that the market isn't currently matching.
Well the only good news there is for us holders is that when we hold our coins for over a year the taxes when we sell will be much much lower so not the worst situation.
everyone talks about the V-shaped recovery and immediate move to $100k. Could be possible. Let's show another way too.
Thoughts on LINK and DOT?
Hey Ben, have you looked at the Cowen Corridor on the monthly? Looks pretty interesting....
Daily and the weekly as well.
No one needs Hopium so I appreciate your more realistic/balanced views.
Really appreciate your analysis, Ben. Thanks!
So it looks like this is the time to be accumulating more so I won't have to worry about BTC reaching 200k. I'll just have to grow my portfolio out twice as much. So here's my question: If BTC were to reach down to 25k, could ETH get down to 1k?
Ben's got to be one of the most bearish guys on UA-cam but he's also the most realistic .... it's a gut punch when someone you trust tells you that you might have to wait 3 more years for 100k lol . That's would suck.
Some people, unlike Ben, are selling 500k bitcoin nonsense, just to pump their own bags. Bitcoin may get to Zero, as it depends on to many parameters. In fact all tokens are unecessary. tech is something else, though
considering 99.99% of youtubers are massive shills he does not have much competition...the people that are actually making money have been closing their positions on crypto since January while convincing the masses to load up. The last time ben brought crypto it was at 12k, his average is a lot lower
@@scottfree6479 Same with new alts in every cycle "they offer more, BTC is old and slow, etc" but most alts are just empty promises or eventually have a lot of downsides.
Perhaps one day something will flip with BTC, but BTC will not stay under 100K, let alone 50K, unless the whole interest in the crypto market disappears.
If it sucks, maybe you should examine the question why? Maybe your financial management needs tightening up to make it less suck?
Remember, the good investor can profit in any enviroment. There is more than one asset. Never invest money you have to pay the bills with.
@@MrjavoiThe "If it isn't dead already"
Someone give this man an award for the most FUD statement in the comments.
Crypto isn't dying or anywhere near it. The technological benefits and utility for some sectors is undeniably effective. The flexibility and tools being provided by some crypto are literally enabling the economies of some nations. If you knew anything about the crap you're likely buying and investing in, you'd know this isn't all just some "get rich quick" bs. But I doubt you're that dumb. You probably just wanna play a small part in scaring the price down so you can buy up a better dip.
You aren't a clown, you're the whole circus.
The man does not sleep. He does better things.
Sleep needs Ben
I>n>v>e>s>t> d>a>n>s> c>r>y>p>t>o>
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Postponed my FORBES interview till June!
@@bejaminc0wen154 Scammer
Forbes has a crypto interview hotline phone. They unplugged it.
😂😂😂
I like forbies
😂
The idea of the "peak" being out in 2023 interestingly plays into a superposition with the next halving. Thinking of it like a phase shift where the bull market lengthens to the point where it finally lines up to the next halving almost sounds like a case for the supercycle theory as well, although it means a much longer duration in order to compound the effects of momentum plus doubled scarcity.
Interesting.
interesting stuff mate
what?
Looking forward to this possibility. Great points made.
Now that is worth considering...makes sense!
Awesome analysis... I never thought I could be at peace about a return to $20k, but you have me convinced it'll be just fine if it does.
9k
Me tok
If we hit 20K it's very likely this bull cycle already peaked. 70% drops very unlikely during a bull market.
@@jerrydesu we don't have enough history to say that. So far there were only 2 real cycles. 1 saw a more than 70% retracement, 1 didn't. So historically speaking 50% of the cycles had a more than 70% retracement in their bull phase
@@MrjavoiThe I agree. If it goes to $20k this bull run is over. There is already panic, disbelief and fear and we are at $37k!
I'm in BTC for the long haul. I'm more concerned how Bitcoin will affect my altcoins
Exactly. I dont care what the price of BTC is. It will eventually go up and make us money. Its my out-of-top-10 altcoins like Polygon, Rune & Cake that im worried about
@@EaglesWind1 I am exactly the same. Even a rally to $40k would do it for me.
Please, please Bitcoin come to my alts rescue one last time!
I fear the bounce to $41k the other day was our chance though....
@@EaglesWind1 alts will be crush on the way up and down as seen done in the past when the whales decide fit. I honestly just exited my alts to preserve my BTC gains. When the market is too volatile, alts get crushed.
You are one of the very few who provide rational forecast of the market. No BS no douchy emojis no stupid faces in the thumbnail. Thanks.
W•H•A•T•S•A•P•√
+=1= 9= 4 =9 =3= 1 =7 =1= 4= 2= 1.
I think your TA is amazing. Would love to see it sprinkled with some comment on fundamentals too tho
Do you not know the fundamentals of Bitcoin?
Ben himself is a Black Swan amongst UA-camrs, an absolute responsible rational gem to help everyone out - and without annoying UA-cam ads.
Wow, a non click bait title, no cringe inducing thumbnail, and conservative analysis? Subbed.
Thanks for the feedback... For more information... +1=5-1=0=9=2=7=-4=3=4=5
W/H/A/T/S/A/P/P M/E🇺🇸
@@aldinardo4812 Thanks for the feedback... For more information... +1=5-1=0=9=2=7=-4=3=4=5
W/H/A/T/S/A/P/P M/E🇺🇸
He’s the best
Being ready for all possible scenarios is always good. Thanks Ben. Great work as always.
Literally closed everything I was doing to flip over and watch this. One of my favorite other youtubers even mentioned you in his video today!
I was like jeez end of summer is so far away and realised that I live in Australia deuh
😂😂
Spent a Christmas in Perth and it was not. ;-)
@@user-lw6jb1ky8j Scammer
Hahaha🤠
You have just become the perfect youtube channel for crypto in my mind. Thanks this was so great! I am a newb who bought everything at ATHs - time to face the music!
Could we be in the "Denial" phase of the cycle? If so a Bull Trap is on it's way.
@@Burps6 so you think it’s the bear market then?
@@wtmusic515 it is a bear market
@@chrisc3003 i’m not convinced yet, i’m still in profit but i don’t wanna take out my investment yet lol
Yeah. Too many indicators and economy at large tell me to at least play this as an end to the bull cycle... I mean even if it pumps to 100K the upside potential reward isn't worth the risk. And back to the indicators... stocks over extended, economic outlook in disposable income horrible (student loans return to repayment after September), wages haven't budged to the extent many are going back to school, and states that are abandoning Fed's extra $300 early in some vein attempt to whip the serfs back to work... unlikely to work for several reasons, firstly these states own unemployment benefits are horrible already, secondly these states have had their rents and home prices surge dislocating these people, they don't live there no more.
Their new residents already have jobs, they're remote working.
Fact of the matter to get workers, the wage must increase, which most companies are unwilling, smaller companies maybe unable, to do.
Long run, I suspect many of the remote workers will be identified as redundant and unnecessary or ineffective thus laid off or provided an ultimatum to return to the domicile or quit.
Anyway, economic situation doesn't support this bull run for now to continue and only gets more bleak as fall comes.
Safer to be conservative, trade ranges while they form and for a short period.
But don't dollar cost hold at these levels.
Still make some money yet not risk the loss of stuck purchases at what will be ridiculous priced in an ultimate bear market.
You DCA in a long bear market when you even think the stuff is a joke and think you're crazy.
Not now.
All you can do is swing trade or stay out and wait for low bottom to DCA.
And you don't time the bottom... you wait for one to form:
Hits a bottom watch it bounce and retrace... does it hold? Mean time you can trade a range of that. Always get out early on the high of the range.
For long bear bottom, it will just range trade at that level for extended period, and its safe to start dollar cost averaging on retracement lower of the range.
how so eth lost 50%
I’m looking forward to making some gains this cycle, so I can reinvest it during the bear market next cycle haha. I see myself coming to this channel everyday until then. 💚
Ben can you make a video thats explains Whats THE prices of Ada And ETH Will be if THE bearish secenerio plays out ? Lets say bitcoin at 22000 - 25000 . Thanks yout THE best 💪🏽
I'm new to the market and I'm just trying to learn as much as I can, love your videos so far. What if Bitcoin just never reaches six figures forever? What are the chances of something like this happening? Everybody I watch obviously seems to have such confidence in crypto long term, but I'm sure anything is possible. Could be a stupid question but I'm new to the scene
T.h.a.n.k.s f.o.r w.a.t.c.h.i.n.g f.o.r m.o.r.e g.u.i.d.a.n.c.e +...-1...-7...-7...-2...-9...-0...-0...-6...-8...-6...-1 W.H.A.T.S.A.p++.........
Just by looking at the history of btc/crypto which has been going up, and current trends such as the adoption of btc by institutions and growing mining operations which has caused gpu shortages.
@@joneslego3645 T.h.a.n.k.s f.o.r w.a.t.c.h.i.n.g f.o.r m.o.r.e g.u.i.d.a.n.c.e +...-1...-7...-7...-2...-9...-0...-0...-6...-8...-6...-1 W.H.A.T.S.A.p++.........
C....O.....N....T....A....C....T ...
M...E......
O...N......
.....W......A......T.......S.....A...P.....F.......+1=7=1=3=5=8=8=6=6=2=4
My advice to you would be to learn what all this tech can be used for. Listen to developers and people that use it for legitimate purposes. Crypto is about far more than making money and not enough people understand that
No Ben I don't want to "imagine" btc going to 20k
Me neither
How would you expect the ETH/BTC pair to react in this scenario? I'd expect it to bleed like 50% more in such a scenario.
I love how cordial you and Joran have gotten :)
Who is Joran?
I got into crypto 2 months ago and probably bought the top in most instances. It's been a baptism of fire but I'm still hodling stronk. 💎🙌
You are still very early into the crypto space! In 5 to 10 years people wish they bought around the numbers you did 2 months ago
@@aapke3000 facts
stay strong lol
I like how you repeat important points in your explanation. You are such a great teacher.
Love your content Ben. Really appreciate the time based models and analysis. Could you please consider working in some dollar based models? I think people would be interested to see how a $100k BTC means adding $1.2 trillion to the market cap in BTC alone, and how that looks in a model versus historic data; versus BTC dominance, etc. I believe this data will reinforce the lengthening cycle trend. Thanks again.
Thanks for the feedback... For more information... +1=5-1=0=9=2=7=-4=3=4=5
W/H/A/T/S/A/P/P M/E🇺🇸
Ben, I love your analysis! Just wanted to know what happens to Eth and other alts during this time since Bitcoin backs above the support band of bull market?
W•H•A•T•S•A•P•√
+=1= 9= 4 =9 =3= 1 =7 =1= 4= 2= 1.
Great analysis of possibilities, as usual, thnx a lot Benjamin !
T.h.a.n.k.s f.o.r w.a.t.c.h.i.n.g f.o.r m.o.r.e g.u.i.d.a.n.c.e +...-1...-7...-7...-2...-9...-0...-0...-6...-8...-6...-1 W.H.A.T.S.A.p++.........
Could you please list the indicators you use for the analysis thanks !
Thankx F.o.r. watching
Just tesxt me in other to get some information on tr∆ding Tèxxtme
+(1../4../2../4../2../4../2../3../4../4../5)...
Hi Ben, where do you think the Bitcoin bottom could be? it would be interesting if you made a video on it.
I think he did a nice job describing that in this very video, Emma. He has a convergence at $25k that is pretty interesting...
very interesting and realistic projections, I have seen this scenario discussed elsewhere!
I>n>v>e>s>t> d>a>n>s> c>r>y>p>t>o>
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Congrats finally a realistic analysis 👏
+...1" 7...1.."9 "...6..."4..."2..."5.."8.."0.."7.
Thanks for subscribing....
Beware of spam below this comment..........
W,..H..,A.."T.."S"..A..,P..."P..."
+...1..7..1...9...6...4..2..5.. 8..0...7
Any thoughts on the FUD re Tether being tied to so much of the influx into BTC creating massive instability?
I got no more “dip” money I’m all tapped out
Damn, you're going to miss out on buying the dip!
I hear you, and I promise you...stay the course and you’ll come out right. This isn’t about swinging for the fences. For all of us, its about slowly staking your claim right here and now in something that is going to change the world in your lifetime.
Hi Benjamin! How to find the log scale that you are using? With the green and red band. Thanks.
Nice work Ben, congrats on 420000 subs! You earned it.
Thanks, the commentary is helpful!
W•H•A•T•S••A••P••P•••
+•1•9•4•9•3•1•7•1•4•2•1•
I•N•V•E•S•T•• IN••BTC••C•R•Y•P•T•O C•U•R•R•E•N•C•Y
Not the news that we wanted to hear, but the news that we needed to hear. Thanks again for all your guidance
What about if we are having the same scenario as during the coronavirus crash ? We fell and bounce back
i agree
economic factors have changed drastically.
GREAT ANALYSES Benjamin, very realistic! Conclusion: we will GET there, sooner or later so just HODL & RELAX!!!
Great outlook. How do you pull up the regression band? thanks.
I'd really love an update to LINK, what do you think will happen to it?
I want to join your premium list. But the prices are a little steep can you give us a Flash sale so that many of us newbie can join.
Thanks for the feedback... For more information... +1=5-1=0=9=2=7=-4=3=4=5
W/H/A/T/S/A/P/P M/E🇺🇸
it should be tied to the price of BTC ;)
At the end of the day, 𝕥𝕚𝕞𝕖 𝕚𝕤 𝕠𝕟 𝕠𝕦𝕣 𝕤𝕚𝕕𝕖, so I'm at the beach having my strawberry daiquiri, relaxing & waiting for the next ⓡⓐⓛⓛⓨ to happen.............. one day. 😎
Hey Ben, been binging your content as someone who recently started investing (not the best time but oh well). I recently found out about the shenanigans Tether has been pulling in regards to not having 1USDT being backed by a USD, do you think Tether being potentially outed in the future does anything for crypto long term? Thanks!
Tether was definitely questionable, but regulators did their job and forced the project to prove its backing. That seems to have happened, but issue cast doubts on whether Tether has trustworthy management.
@@narwhaltacos2197 makes sense. I'm still a bit vary of their breakdown to be honest, what even does commercial paper mean?
Either way, I hope if and when they get outed it doesn't affect the market massively
Where can i get those nice indicators like the bull market support band or the bitcoin logarithmic regression band from?
I literally watch every crypto youtuber and you have one the best analysis of the current crypto market.
True, but rn the most depressing too.... 😪
I dont think we can realistically use the March 2020 crash as a possibility to hit 20k... that capitulation was almost entirely related to Covid and I personally would consider it an outlier. If we assumed that we moved sideways there instead of tanking, I think that would make more sense for an elongated accumulation phase during this bull market before a final push upwards. I also think that this accumulation phase (if it plays out) will be the bottom for the next 'bear market'
T.h.a.n.k.s f.o.r w.a.t.c.h.i.n.g f.o.r m.o.r.e g.u.i.d.a.n.c.e +...-1...-7...-7...-2...-9...-0...-0...-6...-8...-6...-1 W.H.A.T.S.A.p++.........
i agree
This is what I believe also. Consolidation and accumulation period, reaching min 25k levels, clearly above the previous ATH and then road to 100-150k.
congrats on 420k subs!!
Nice!
Ben u said link 100 $ in summer. Next year's summer? Omgggg bennnn
There is summer in every year
Thanks for the analysis Ben.
I just want to throw in sth: the next two years will be very good on the stock market. They usually are after government stimuli. Most major companies early in the value chain (chemicals) have raised their expectations. 2023 though there is a chance that interest might go up. This would also hit Bitcoin. I am banking on a peak in 2022 when stock market is at its height due to money inflow.
Wow I remember when this channel had 1k subs. Keep up the good work!
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No matter how long it takes I will dca and follow your videos to the road to 100k
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Very level headed analysis 🧐. I enjoyed it
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Ben, and what about the alt coins?
Great analysis Ben 👍
Love your Work Benjamin 🐱👤🐱👤
You're the man Ben! I'm sure you get other comments questioning your strategy and thought process but if it was my comment on your video a few days ago that made you make some of these comments..... You've pretty much answered ALL my questions/comments in this video. I wasn't judging you on what you said in that video. I was just looking for a little more reasoning behind it. I still don't think we will go down to $20k.... Maybe $24-25k? for a brief moment (a day or two) in the big picture. But what's the likelihood that it could go that low and still put in a new ATH by the end of the year? Setting it up for the longer bull run you've been talking about for 2022? I never said it will break 100k this year but I do feel it could definitely put in a new ATH before year end. What do you think buddy?
Yea, sometimes I wonder if Bitcoin's cycles will change. Instead of busting out 100G in 2021, then waiting past 2024 til next halving for next br, maybe we'll hit 80k this Christmas, then 100k next Fall,
If we dump to 20k will you Ben go all in btc to help the history to continue? Will you do that Ben? Btc never dumped under previous ath.
Get me directly for more guidelines and crypto earnings (BTC/ETH/DOGE)
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Ben keeping us all level headed, I am buying the dip and waiting
Ben you’ve nailed it!
the best crypto youtubers are you sir and crypto kirby
Write down my analyst digit
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Ben your historical analysis is fantastic to explain what already has happened however as you realize fundamentals and unexpected events or black swans are more than rare occurances for this new asset class
My 2 cents worth is a new ATH won't happen until August 2021 with 100k reached around December 2021. Top would be 140k in March 2022. I have no idea where this correction will bottom.
That would fulfil your 'diminished return and lengthening cycle' thesis which I'm on boars with.
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This is one of the best videos I've seen on the current topic, thanks!
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@@Kellywire001 WTFFFFF LMFAO
What do you think about the stock to flow model of bitcoin. As far as i know its predicted prices foe this cycle is 200k+ and in four years 1M+
If it plays out the same way as the last bull run then can we predict that Bitcoin will peak at the end of August? because from the halving in that bull run to the top was 15 months. 15 months from the last halving will be the end of August.
Wouldn't fit with the lengthening cycle narrative
You’re new to this channel...each cycle so far has taken slightly longer than the last. Which should mean this cycle should end sometime around January-February of 2022. Obviously there’s no guarantee of that , but that’s just been the trend so far.
@@masift1494 Another thing to take into consideration is that the halving isn't extended though.
how did you calculate the regression band?
Good video Ben, sensible and realistic analysis!
Great vid Ben but have you considered the current peak in 2021 is a repeat of 2018? On a non log view, right now looks a lot like 2018.
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Benjamin, any thesis of bull market ending now?
Remember no body predicted the end of the 2017 bull run
Argh market is down another 10% since you posted this...this is getting incredibly painful
Ben is really being a negative Nancy, bad news Bear, at some point always focusing on the possible negative outcome will effect what will actually happen in the end, you will "summon" it in to existence (not to mention if you have 400k followers, a snowball rolling down the mountain can start an avalanche)
@@strangerinastrangeland8026 he is not being negative. i would place Ben as being the most objective and unbiased person i follow. he just talks about what the data shows.
@@SimonMetin I know man, and I agree. I'm just slowly losing my mind a bit looking at the charts xD because it really looks like we are going straight head first in to the wood chipper!
thanks Benjamin!! I appreciate your insight.
Glad the algorithm is helping you have a decent chance at getting 1 mil subs soon :)
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What about the CME gaps at 18k and 24k? We could go down and fill those gaps like we always did in the past and then start to go up!
He's sleeping but lucid dreaming. He never stops working
Let's be honest Ben, we never left the cryptoverse
What would this mean for the alts?? Will they follow than? I’m in big red numbers at the moment.. So: is this just for Bitcoin or will they act close to Bitcoin?
Thanks for the feedback... For more information... +1=5-1=0=9=2=7=-4=3=4=5
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Good stuff 👍🏼
It may have some lengthening, but if it doesn't peak by spring 2022, it seems too long and not enough time for the usual bear/bull cycle. Seems too radically different and not enough time for the bear market consolidation phase prior to the next bull run. Also don't think we'll see a 300K peak this bull run. More likely between 100K-200K. If we've already peaked, seems really a fuddy duddy cycle, especially considering all the recent adoption. So most likely it got a little ahead of itself and now it's just adjusting back to where it should be.
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Ben what are your thoughts on the 4chan stuff?
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In a market where everyone is watching trends and looking for patterns the only sure thing is patterns won't keep repeating. Unless you expect people to be looking for patterns but NOT trying to profit off them.
@@andrzejudalski7081 if you do your research you'll find that pretty much any pattern you see on a chart has a fancy name. You could sit there and say "Wyckoff distribution! This proves that markets are predictable!" but you're just ignoring the thousands of theories that the market isn't currently matching.
@@chrismmint confirmation bias
I abosolutly NOT hope for a V shaped recovery. I'm in crypto since February and need a long consolidation/accumulation phase now to load my bags!
whales love it when you provide liquidity for them to dump on u
Saw you are playing in the chess charity tourney. Good luck and good content my man.
Brilliant analysis as usual
Hey. love your videos. What about the possibility that bitcoin will go to 0?
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Anybody knows what’s a DC approach for the market?
anyone noticed that the PI cycle top did come true?!
how is that red green line Indicator called?
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Ben, do you see any chance this energy narrative could gain strength and become a serious problem for Bitcoin?
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I don’t understand dca’ing! Wouldn’t it be better to just continue to regularly buy in through the ups and downs?
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I absolutely loaded up at $40k too. Sad times.
Well the only good news there is for us holders is that when we hold our coins for over a year the taxes when we sell will be much much lower so not the worst situation.
How long does it take to recover ?
long time follower, this might be my favorite post of yours
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Ben "The Cryptofather" such a humble man. Thanks for all the info. What a boss!
which side is time at?
great and realistic analysis
I’m not afraid of the bear. I need to fill my bags. BTC, ETH, DOT, PRQ, KSM, .......
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