Forecast Discussion - April 27, 2024 - Southern Plains Tornado Outbreak Possible Today
Вставка
- Опубліковано 26 кві 2024
- For educational purposes only. If you live in the affected areas, please stay tuned to your local National Weather Service office for the most accurate and up-to-date information.
A widespread severe weather outbreak is expected today across much of the central US. SPC has upgraded to a Moderate Risk (level 4/5) from southeast Kansas into much of Oklahoma and northwest Texas. An initial round of storms posing an all-hazards threat may leave an outflow or differential heating boundary draped across this corridor, which is forecast to interact favorably with multiple developing supercells along the dryline. After an initial large to giant hail threat, these supercells will pose a risk of several strong, long-track, perhaps intense to violent tornadoes, particularly across the Moderate Risk region before storm mode degrades into a line. Evan after this occurs, significant damaging wind and embedded tornadoes are expected.
Become a Patreon member today to support the channel: / convectivechronicles
Facebook: / convectivechronicles
X: / convchronicles
Instagram: / convectivechronicles - Наука та технологія
On the 13th anniversary of the '11 super outbreak. That breakdown video is one I go back to regularly.
I'm number three. 😊 I hope everyone stays safe today. 🌈 I'm so thankful there were no fatalities yesterday, the NWS Omaha was on top of it.
Helps to have basements. We're kinda lucky that way up here in the northern plains.😅
@@windwatcher11I'm from Wisconsin, basements are super common up here as well. I know there aren't as many in Oklahoma so I hope nothing hits a populated area. 🤞
Oklahoma has tons of underground storm shelter some of the nicest I’ve seen anywhere look at Mangum ok kids daycare storm shelter I walked by it a lot over the past couple years
No you aren’t number 3 you are number 1 always remember that stay safe
@@windwatcher11I'm gay too buddy lol
The best forecast vids on UA-cam. Great work, super informative.
Thanks so much!
I am particularly concerned about today. Absolutely insane parameter space, limited crapvection, 4,000 j/kg of CAPE in some places, morning storms already tornadic, observed loaded gun soundings…today has every look to a significant tornado outbreak. SPC will probably rely on surface observations in order to go High Risk, and I think they’ll pull the trigger. Every body in the state of Oklahoma needs to be hyper weather aware today.
Newest outlook Still Moderate Risk, next update might be high risk depending on when the storms really start off
Hello, here in Wisconsin. Incredibly warm and humid all the way up here. Feels like we are going to have a major tornado to remember today somewhere in the plains region.
April 27th will be a day that will forever live in infamy in the weather community. Luckily today’s parameters aren’t as potent as in 2011, but it still looks like it’s going to be very busy. Stay safe, Trey!
Well yesterday didn’t even have a 15% hatched and it produced monsters and today with this 15% hatched we may actually see a Ef5 for the first time in almost 11 years or it could be a bust who knows and remember it only takes one storm , one tornado , multiple lives
@@Joshua429 Definitely feels like it would be an EF4, it was already described as Violent damage not too long after it went through Elkhorn.
@@Joshua429 Please don’t think I’m downplaying anything. I was only commenting on the differences in parameters between today and April 27th, 2011. That day had some of the most violent and damaging tornados ever, and I was making a comment that, hopefully, today will not be as severe. Chances are it won’t be.
Yesterday’s outbreak was wild with a capital W. If u get a twofer I’m gonna go be very sad yesterday was enough, so much damage. Look forward to hopefully see a breakdown on this if it is indeed a multi day outbreak. Be safe out there today Trey
The 1 saving grace is I haven't seen A N Y reports of fatalities yet....truly amazing considering the impacts/damage.
There will always be that few % of chasers that are crazies, disobeying road rules and/or begging for destruction, but the vast majority of them are doing fantastic work in getting reports out there and increasing general awareness/interest levels in severe weather. If this happened decades ago I can't imagine the outcome would have been this positive. Plus guys like Trey here who are breaking it all down day after day or people reporting on it live online.
@@173jaSon371 man that would be super amazing news there. Specially after seeing some of the vids. And I 100% agree 👍
@@Michagan_outdoorsman_James I know that there was a report out of Minden that there were 0 deaths and 1 head injury, I believe that came straight from their fire chief but not sure on Omaha or the other major hits. Let's hope today isn't worse for anyone! Biiiig risk area, hoping for a bust or corn field type of day lol.
@@173jaSon371As Far As We Know There Have Been A Good Amount Of Minor Injuries, But No Fatalities. The Tornadoes Went Through Very Rural Places (Minus Lincoln & Omaha). They Missed Des Moines.
I woke up and checked the SPC only to be greeted with the moderate. And right after that tornado outbreak that occurred yesterday. People are gonna have to be extra vigilant today, especially for people in or near the moderate or enhanced.
The sounding out of Norman screams super outbreak. A classic loaded gun sounding
Out here in the Chicago suburbs winds are absolutely cranking, relatively humid, sun's out, I hope we don't have a nocturnal threat
Yikes, I’m in the moderate risk
You stay safe out there
I’m sure you know because you’re watching this channel, but just in case: have a plan. Find your tornado safe area. If you’re not in a mobile home, then a basement or tornado shelter is best, but go to the most interior room of your home with no windows and no exterior walls. A closet or bathroom is best. Wear shoes and a helmet if you have one. Have an air horn on hand and have it with you when you shelter. Finally, remember that tornados are small and counties are huge, so even in the very worst outlook days, the extreme vast majority of people will be just fine. Stay safe!
Stay Safe!
Stay safe
Be safe!
Clicked on this so fast thanks Trey!!!!
Not be surprised if the SPC pulls the trigger on the high risk issued....those loaded gun soundings from Dallas, Norman, and Topeka are insane....not seen a set up like this for Oklahoma since......well...El Reno/Moore 2013.
All rounds are in the gun chamber for this. Trey, good luck out there on the tour group on this one...this is one to really keep your heads on a swivel and soooooo much chaser congestion on the roads. Just a remarkable event yesterday and this may be so much worse today with a lot more populated areas in place and SPC calling for ef3+ tornadoes is beyooooond rare. I really don't remember when last time they called that explicitly in a outlook.....I don't even the march 31st last one they had that wording in it.
That day was actually just a 10% hatched risk and some unexpected factors came together to produce the Moore tornado. It was in no way a widespread tornado outbreak setup like today is. Today’s parameter space is far stronger.
Hopefully a high risk isn’t necessary, but looking at the soundings would be surprised if the SPC issued high risk…..
Wouldnt*
Maybe but the SPC is notorious for being conservative and plus this could be a repeat of April 2012 where they predicted a tornado outbreak and all that happened was one ef0 and one ef3 so who really knows
@@Joshua429 Fair point, although unlikely that we only have 2 tornadoes. anything could be a possibility with today.
I don't know why I'm watching this because I am literally on the opposite side of the earth but I like it👍
Trey is, in my opinion, the most educational weather content creator on UA-cam. It’s criminal how few subs he has. I trust nobody more when it comes to forecasting.
Thanks for the update, Trey! Hope everyone stays safe out there and make sure your tornado shelters are registered folks! Going to be a long day.
Praying for you and all who will be on the road reporting today! Yesterday gave us some of the most incredible tornado video ever so who knows what today will provide.
Checking in with my friend in Tulsa. I’m in NE KS. Thanks as always, Trey.
Thank you for continuing to education the community! Hope everyone is safe today
I’m excited to see the breakdown of yesterday
Thanks as always Trey, wishing you luck out there today! Hoping everyone is alright throughout the day.
Thank you!
Thanks for the update again!
28:35 you and me had the same reactions. Gonna be a crazy day.
Thank you for all you do! I was terrified from the tornado outbreak that hit my city omaha yesterday. I saw the minden tornado.
Wow you were so correct about yesterday (well other forecasts also) it really helps me to have a very believable forecast! Thanks!
Thanks so much Trey! I look forward to your outlooks. Stay safe out there chasing!
Thank you so much! Today’s going to be a tough one!
Appriciate the update
Prayers for all in the path. 🙏 this is day 13 years ago that here in Alabama had devastating tornado outbreak all day.😢
Stay safe today trey! I'll be watching from afar
im sorry but at 30:18 that is an april 27th type sounding, I'm lost for words on that sounding... @ConvectiveChronicles
Yeah, parameter space today is pretty nuts
Thank you for the updates
Thx will stay alert
Did I just hear you say possible high risk? Dang, this is big! Stay hyper weather aware and great video!
Well this is certainly one of the highest parameter spaces I've seen from your forecast discussions. There's a couple small flies in the ointment with morning convection, unidirectional winds in the lowest kilometer of the atmosphere, and a possible quick transition to a linear mode due to large amounts of forcing causing too much convection to support robust long-track supercells. But even with those, I think the stage is set to attempt to out-do yesterday's massive over-performance. I also agree that I would not be surprised to see a small circle of High risk thrown in around central Oklahoma, things just look a bit "too perfect".
Great video, Trey, stay safe out there. I know you're basically right in the bullseye, so I hope you (and many many others) come out of this unscathed. It's definitely the first day of the season where it felt like all the pieces are coming together in the right way. Obviously chasers would love to get some awesome footage of big tornadoes over open fields (like yesterday some beautiful corn field mothership supercells with massive tornadoes), but there's a lot of people living in the risk area and for their sake I hope today is a massive bust.
Thank you! Definitely hoping for a repeat over yesterday but over open fields. Certainly could be some strong ones today.
Great forecast, your videos are always incredibly important when living in Tornado Alley. Thank you.
Thank you!
Hope you and your family are safe! I just seen all the damage in Sulphur Oklahoma and so far I've heard 2 fatalities crazy damage thoughts and prayers for people in Oklahoma
Thank you! Thankfully, those tornadoes in Norman were off to my west. Definitely feeling for the folks just east/southeast of us; those were some nasty tornadoes.
Thanks Trey. hope all goes well for you in Norman
Thank you!
Thanks for taking the time out of your chase to give us an update!
Great video Trey thanks for your thoughts on this Trey and that outbreak yesterday was wild and today could be worse
Thank you!
@@ConvectiveChronicles yw and now we have a PDS tornado watch
Yesterday was quite eventful & it seems like today will be no different. I just hope there isn't much damage.
Thanks for your coverage!
Tulsan here, hope im safe😅
I'll try to remember to report back tomorrow!
I have an hummer can’t fit in garage. I use 2 old comforters to cover it as it starts raining. Weights them down well. Large hail in okla has never hurt it that way. Cheaper than deductible fyi
Thanks Trey! You’re the man.
Great synopsis.... heading up to Wichita falls this morning. We had several reported tornadoes in Central Texas yesterday. Low clouds and fog made storm chasing challenging.
Thank you! Yeah, that was an interesting setup across central TX yesterday that really came together quickly
Stay safe out there today Trey. Please take care of yourself today everyone and absolutely take any warnings extremely seriously today. ❤❤❤
Thank you…safety is the number one priority today
Thanks. Awesome breakdown as always!
Thank you!
Yesterday was not good
It was madness. Sadly, today may be even worse
Yikes. Good luck on your chase and stay safe!
Thank you!
this was the scariest event ive ever seen with these tornado producing supercells training over the same exact areas repeatedly
Hey trey, have u seen the old model 14z nadocast run? That’s the most significant I’ve ever seen.
Greetings from Germany
Yeah, apparently the first 60% ever outlined on it
The 13Z run of the HRRR shows 65+ knot winds at 850mb from near Kingfisher, OK northeast to near Howard, KS at 10pm.
That's absurd. 40-45 knots is easily sufficient on its own.
Hoping nothing happens at all. Seems unlikely tho.
Stay safe today!
Just West of okc and ready for some storms!
The concrete here is damp looking. Much humidity here in Northeast Missouri this morning.
Is there a chance this gets upgraded to high risk this sounds & feels concerning in the skies here in okc?! 75° temp, 68° dew point making it feel real sticky and very windy
it’s 74° with a 70° dew point right now, i’m located about 30 min northeast of dallas
Look at the 12 UTC for Norman
Sounding*
High risk might be issued, hopefully it isn’t necessary but it looks probable.
There’s a chance
Stay safe while chasing, Trey.
Unfortunately we are starting to get sunshine here in kennedale tx (just southeast of fort worth)
Looks like forcing will remain west of the area until this evening. Should be a strong squall line moving through tonight
Hey Trey! How's it going after yesterday's event? Adrenaline didn't drop all day I guess🌪🌪😀,,,,, Yesterday was very intense outbreak (Already can't wait for your case study😀)....The most poptent event since 31 march 2023. I almost broke my fingers with strom chasers live streams switching :D But i saw 10-15 tornadoes and most of them from that monster tornado producing machine in Nebraska. That Tornado near Waterloo was in upper echelon of violent ones 4 sure..... From chasing perspective this day rewarded all dissapointing events since January but unfortunately impact many lives.
Of course models again had problems with forecasting this yesterday event and today could be the same but I'm worried for today: yesterday event performed much better than expected so today could be the same situation. Thanks for forecast update and I wish you another great chase today! and I hope that tornadoes today will evoid populated area. STAY SAFE Brother💪😎
Thank you! It definitely was a wild day yesterday…hopefully a repeat today but over open fields this time!
is dfw only going to experience a linear storm mode? I want to be better prepared for what to expect, and while parameters are conducive for tornadoes, it seems the main threat will be straight line winds. is that the case?
It does look like that’s the case with the greatest threats being damaging winds and embedded tornadoes
Was a little slow out of the gate considering the expectations, but after sunset...kaboom.
⛈️🌪🌩
Well it was so hot in 1995 in wisconsin so hot like dew points in the upper 60s and nothing happend like really bad so im still not sure yet but we'll see.
When will you put out the Case Study for the April 26, 2024 outbreak yesterday? I wanna use it for a school project.
Not sure if I’ll have time with my tour schedule
Too far to chase today in OH but going to MI for Lake Mich and maybe see some lightening
Yes
April 27th...
DFW and OUN soundings from 12z with
Deep moist layer ✅️
Good EML/lapse rates ✅️
Bulk shear for supercells ✅️
Effective SRH >200 ✅️
Storm mode looks discrete but relatively widespread on 13z HRRR with good coverage around peak heating. Thermos and kinematics only to improve towards 00z. All systems go?
Ah shit here we go again!!
Colorado University charted this convection a week ago. There should have been a tornado watch for all week. I don't know I'd there was or not. But definitely should have been.
SPC doesn’t issue tornado watches more than a few hours in advance
I'm not sure if you think the nadocast machine learning technology is accurate, but it's showing a 60% area for tornadoes around OKC. 60% is absolutely nuts.
Yeah, first 60% ever outlined on it. Crazy
Thundersnowing in Colorado, can't get more textbook.
Yesterday was the wildest I remember. I can't fathom a worse day.
Watch James Spann’s and Jason Simpson’s coverage of April 27th, 2011. Yesterday was bad, but that day was truly incredible (and horrific).
@@WxBreakdown i know that day happened. I was too young to truly understand the magnitude of 4/27/11
What radar did you use in this video?
RadarScope pro tier 2
If they didn't issue a moderate risk right before the Omaha tornadoes yesterday and they are already issuing a moderate risk now this might be really bad.
Definitely has a high ceiling
What caused the daytime rounds to underperform? Strong one going up in south ok now though.
I have a suspicion that anvil blowoff kept warm sector thermos just slightly less than what they needed to be
Wichita was just moved into the moderate threat.
Wow.
Sad part is that 13 14 years ago Alabama was being destroyed.
I think we gonna see our 1st f5 today in 11 yrs . Close yesterday just didn't hit enough but that monster was big yesterday
I’m not sure; wouldn’t be surprised if some of yesterday’s make a run at it
I’m honestly starting to worry this might end up being what may 20 2019 was supposed to be.
Why isn’t the Dallas Fort Worth Area not getting any of these big storms!?
Forcing is off to the west. You’ll get storms overnight into tomorrow
@@ConvectiveChronicles Thank you for your reply!
I am not happy at all about this. Tornadoes were bad enough yesterday... Whats gonna happen today? Especially in texas i mean we were "just" in a 2-5% yesterday ughhh im so scared not just for me but those in oklahoma etc
Yeah, today could be rough
I'm in the enhanced
help.
Keep an eye out this evening and overnight!
I was born on this day in 1991 a day after the bridge myth was born
If you're in Oklahoma, step outside. Feel it?
yeah...
Stay aware!
Go figure another huge day on my birthday. Already firing off and it's not even 11am yet
Happy birthday!
@@ConvectiveChronicles thanks brother stay safe today and happy hunting.
Been waiting for DFW outbreak!!! God that 1200UTC skew t got me fucking hype
It might be time today, and perhaps even tomorrow!
So sketchy being on april 27th
Aww sh*t, here we go again
What is the biggest possible fly in the ointment today?
Not a professional but based on video seems like maybe low level jet?
@@justusmatteson3814 There will be quite a few supercells interacting with each other, but every other metric looks prime.
Storm mode degradation before the parameter space gets really primed
@@ConvectiveChronicles How is it looking as of now?
@@louiedesimone3775 Welp...it ended up being a doozy of a night in OK. Had some discrete supercells fire up in OK ahead of the squall line that packed a punch
im 30 minutes to the northeast of Joplin Missouri, should i be concerned at all?
Just be weather aware.
Prob later for sure
Nobody can tell you not to be concerned at this point. Where you're at I would prepare for anything. If there are things you need to do that take time, like protecting animals, then now is the time.
The best way to alleviate fear is to have a plan. Know where you’re going to shelter if you come under a tornado warning. Wear shoes. Make sure your phone will audibly warn you if a tornado warning occurs in your area. Just remember that the chance of you being hit by a tornado is extremely small even on the very worst outlook days. If you stay aware of the weather today and you have a plan, you’re almost certain to be just fine. :)
could southwest missouri see an extension of the MDT risk, given the decent hodograph structures?
I wonder how bad it will get in tulsa
Overnight round could get nasty
Fasten your seatbelts people. It's bout to get crazy again.
You ok bro? I saw a tornado hit Norman hope you’re safe
All good, thank you! Those tornadoes were just west of me thankfully.
@connectivechronicles I got pictures of the aftermath of an EF2 possibly EF3 from oklahoma yesterday anyway I can email you to send em
Sure, thank you!
Everyone STAY SAFE PLEASE, we don’t want any fatalities
26:47 i really do not like seeing april 4 1974 show up as a significant match on the sounding analogue list
Agreed. That’s never a good thing to see. Let’s hope it doesn’t come to fruition.