Why Optimus will EXPLODE Tesla stock SOONER than FSD
Вставка
- Опубліковано 24 лип 2024
- In this video, we explore Tesla's next big opportunity: the robotics revolution with Optimus. With AI reaching critical mass and hardware platforms ready for mainstream use, Tesla is uniquely positioned to scale production like no other company. We'll delve into Elon Musk's influence and the roadmap to success, including the launch of 3rd generation Optimus robots and their impact on stock prices. Join us to discover how Tesla's Optimus could reshape the future.
Disclaimer: The content of this video is NOT investment advice. Always do your own research and consider consulting with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
0:00 Strategic opportunity
5:56 Roadmap
10:43 Stock price
17:19 FSD comparison
22:11 Competitors
Connect with me:
𝕏 - / jobhakdi
🌎 Website- www.jobhakdi.com/
📸 Instagram- / jobhakdi
#tesla #teslastock #optimus #fsd #elonmusk - Наука та технологія
People think of Tesla like another company. They shkukd think of Tesla as a polished factory from a future world and more advanced planet. Almost no one understands what Tesla REALLY is and why. It will replace the entire world economy and it became inevitable years ago.
@@justinsjourney3224 my next video is about the Tesla civilization
Musk is the only ceo in the world who loves his fans
Only ones who don't understand are the delusional cult members trapped in a bubble.
As a share holder i wish elon and the company only mention near term missions.. not some futuristic none proven dream elon had one day when he was high... Fsd was suppose to be ready yesterday.. now their new event is delayed.
@@pse2020So? Are you an investor that wants to see insane results next quarter? That won't work, sell your stock and seek something else...
When you plant a tree, you will see results in 10 or 20 years, not sooner right? A true investor, long term, wants to know where the company is in the next decade, not quarter.
it's interesting. Some are saying Optimus could explode tesla's stock even before FSD does. What are your thoughts on that?
Optimus is generating a lot of excitement because of its potential in the AI space. It's not just about autonomous driving but also applications in logistics, robotics, and more
Tesla's FSD has been promising but has faced delays and regulatory hurdles. Optimus, on the other hand, seems to be on a faster track with its versatile AI capabilities
It's all about execution now. If Optimus can execute well and gain traction in the market, it could indeed have a substantial impact on tesla's stock price sooner than Fsd
Its applications in logistics, robotics, and AI driven services could really diversify Tesla's revenue streams
But I wonder how investors should approach this. I mean, both Optimus and fsd promise significant technological advancements, but the timelines and risks involved might differ
I hope that Tesla never sells any of the Optimus bots. Only lease them to factories at maybe 70% of the pay of a human performing the same job. Tesla remains the owner of the bots, and has full control of them. The paycheck goes to Tesla. Once the bots are working at scale, Tesla splits that income among the shareholders (big dividend). Why sell the bots and let the buyer get rich?? Loyalty to the shareholders comes first.
RaaS!
They will never sell any unless people need really large paper weights
Never sell. Only rent.
@@billyrocket62 you know they already have purpose built robots in factories already….. they gather things…. Weld car bodies…. Put tires on wheels… wheels on cars …..they just don’t require hands faces or legs to already do the job they are built for
Why sell the goose that makes the golden eggs :)
Great perspective! If we see Optimus pre-orders next year it will be nuts
Very nuts!
Like the semi……. It’s been a complete dud of epic proportions as there is no infrastructure built out for mass EV transit on main lines. ( yes we know these were sold as short distance haul )
Yet people don’t realize Tesla needs a servicing center by every order that gets put out
And we don’t even have superchargers in areas that have been waiting how long..
The fact that you employ a German accent in your presentation adds to the drama and seriousness. Nice!
lol the accent makes me the perfect messenger for the apocalypse... but at least Tesla is going to make us rich before it happens.
@@jobhakdi Exactly and I have no doubt. I anticipate Tesla’s stock going above 4K. If not I foresee multiple stock splits within the next 4 years. I really appreciated your insight. Great video!
Way Moore than 1 million Optimus pre-orders
@@samyoung1662 just saying a million is a safe bet and all we need to absolutely skyrocket. It could be more
Don’t forget, between wave one and wave four, Tesla is constantly moving forward in its development of their robot and possibly robot four will be further advanced😊
They displayed a mach up of V3 in China. V4 is already in production
My immediate guess on Optimus orders was 10 mil. It's just going to be insane!
People don’t understand how big this will be
You don’t need those orders… nor is it even going to approach that for a long while.
Every single deployment
Need custom programming first off. Service centers and distribution centers in vicinity.
And Tesla won’t even be at that scale for a very long time. Just look at the superchargers. We have ZERO on Maui. Zero
People thinking these bots will be all over the world don’t realize the infrastructure needed. Training. Capital. Along with an onslaught of competition
@jobhakdi why are you pretending like this thing is even remotely close to doing 1% of all the things you think it's going to be doing next year?
Tesla can't even get a windscreen wiper to work properly.
I 100% agree. Optimus will be impactful first and will have an infinity greater impact than FSD. Every inclosed manufacturing facility will want one almost immediately. 3-5 years after that, we could see autonomous robots in foundries, powerstations, and nuclear plants. After that, they will be everywhere, digging ditches, picking crops, and helping out in medical facilities. We are not the only ones who see that this will be happening soon. I imagine there's a reason the software focus for NVIDIA is virtual training for robots.
I am curious, though. You get it, and still, you think we need more humans?
We always need more humans! Humans are important and the point of the whole exercise. But robots will be an enormous strategic game changer , I will do a series of videos on their economic and geostrategic impact. At the eye of the storm is Tesla stock , which is crazy
Agreed: (1) optimus will take off first; (2) FSD is just a side-note; (3) B2G will be huge, esp for national security. We're seeing exactly the same things. But I would argue that the "double whammy" you mentioned is the single biggest catalyst of all: proof is in the pudding, once they prove it drives margins, just 1-5% even, it's immediately the words biggest "must have" b2b product and pre-orders will go through the stratosphere. Robotic labour is a killer product because you own it and it's reliable.
Also, first orders must be b2b to start, in-home is one of the hardest use-cases possible.
That Optimus will be able to lift and manipulate any part or sub assembly in order to build another Optimus robot will be key to the fastest manufacturing ramp of any complex product ever imagined.
I get a kick out of seeing the robots type at a computer. I doubt they will do that type of work, but if they did, I am sure they would be wirelessly connected and would not need to Type to input data, they would just do a direct transfer. If they are "keying" from paper documents, they would just look at it and it would be scanned in.
Your thought process and explanations are golden! Cheers.
Thank you :)
Yes, I know who Brett Adcock is, but the figure 01 bot does not inspire. When Optimus walks you can tell it’s been optimised to use minimum energy. As an eng grad I’m tuned to appreciate efficiency. Optimus inspires the same way a road trip in a model 3 assures me that Tesla cars are the best. As usual, Musk knows how to win.
Spot on - it looks like Optimus has tremendous competition, but when you account for efficiency, production foresight and business model innovation (that needs to happen) I am not so sure. My gut tells me it's going to be a monopoly for the first 10 years.
I don’t think you can minimize the risk of an Optimus in a home. The first home incident involving a fire or a child or elderly person getting hurt will be just as big news as an FSD incident. Having said that, I will be part of the first preorder group!
And real trees burn down how many houses a year but people still go out in droves and buy them knowing it’s a fire hazard and insurance will absolutely not be building your house back as it was …
Accidents don’t stop phase change revolutions
But this is true for any device , I am sure lawn mowers already mowed some humans and are still in business. Obviously it depends on the details (Optimus strangling a baby would look bad, as opposed to falling over and killing a cat). The risks all seem much less dramatic than FSD
FSD is the ultimate AI training; the level of risk and the number of variables is staggering. It is through the demands of FSD training that all other AI flows so you can't have Optimus unless you have FSD first because the level of accuracy demands it. Elon says the chart of FSD ability has an obvious track to 'better than human'. Likely.
I think Optimus has lower safety and performance requirements - that’s why it will be first. FSD can still be highly effective rice in making Optimus better, but it is not needed to make Optimus minimally feasible
Haven't seen the Business Insider news yet?
Thank you for sharing your insights Johannes. I believe your forecasts for Optimus are spot on.
They can make all kinds of cool versions. Neuralink to one. One you can "wear". It will walk on the Moon when they do the Starship HLS demo(space version). Its going to be SO cool!
Yea, the general public has no idea what's coming. I'll be buying a bot to marry.
@@plantstho6599 I just wont one to cook clean and well see what else if its not too creept
Yes let's combine all the vapourware and pretend it's real
@@mervstash3692 I dont think you know what that word means
@@teslabot5650 lol are you actually trying to suggest neuralink can remote control a robot? And Starship land on the moon? Is it even human rated? Can it escape orbit? What about complete just a basic round the orbit launch & land?
No to all of that.
Hence vapourware. Maybe you need to look up the definition champ. Saying you are going to make something is not the same as actually making it.
This is so crazy… it could work! I buy four Optimus and I send them to work at Home Depot, Walmart, Pizza Hut and UPS delivery. I collect their paycheck, sit home play video games, and I have 2 robo taxis so they can ride share…
In between, robo taxis work some Uber..
Wow, great. Looks like lots of free time for video games in the future!
Great video, thanks for the easy to grasp research.
As mentioned in the comments, leasing them is a great way to go. But if you are going to sell them, why not ask 40k instead of 20k? Most individuals or companies would pay that. It’s the cost of a car. Or the cost of one person’s salary. All it has to do is last a year, and they’ve got their money’s worth…
I came the same conclusion that Optimus will be easier than FSD a few months ago
Nice! I think the awareness is now spreading, I see it more and more on X
@@jobhakdi as a former tesla engineer, my reasoning is that mapping a small indoor area for example inside Fremont factory & doing repetitive tasks is order of magnitude simpler than FSD where there are lots of corner cases .
@@soroushsepahyar maybe even two magnitudes in terms of threshold to deploy!
You really haven't thought this through much have you?
Interesting ideas! Haven’t thought about Optimus timeline in the near term.
Thanks for your time creating these videos.
It helps me think things through and make better decisions on the stock - and it’s fun to share and get your guys’ feedback
Let me get Optimus tech in a little flying drone so I can have a scout pet
Hey from Canada Jo!, Subscribed buddy.
You are wrong on FSD needing geo-fencing… HOLY cow…. Try end to end digital neural nets. Did you see the FANS they were putting together at GIGA TEXAS???? Think deeper … DOJO … H200 BLACKWELL too.
My point with FSD is this: it doesn't matter how good it is, they need an operational layer around it to intercept problems manually (like Waymo). The fact that this is not in the works tells me rollout is far away. But who knows, once Elon focuses on it, maybe less than12 months.
I enjoy your views and thought process!
I like your videos, thanks Jo
Thank you :)
skynet from cyberdyne systems incoming 😅
How about my Optimus being my chauffeur? Now you have double AI driving your car!
Optimus can be the remote control drivers for FSD when it fails. lol
Isaac Asimov likes this. Btw nice jacket!
I chose grey in preparation of the robot future
Thank you very much 🎉
Yes a Bonanza 🎉. Let's Go!
Bonanza is the word of the year
Very clear presentation style
Thank you , glad you like it !
Excellent video thank you for your work. Elon said they could sell 120 million a year do you think that’s possible?
I think they could sell much more than that. A lot of things need to happen before, but none of these things seem a real obstacle.
WOW. Amazing commentary
No parkinglots, no luchroom, no bathrooms! But taken to the extreem, not much of comunication, can work in a hot/cold factory, less lights, it is a bit crazy actually. You dont need all the saftyenclosements etc!
I can assure you I will be ordering 2 as soon as I can
I had a gut feeling that Optimus would be significant before FSD, just because it's much more trivial. THANKS for supplying a logical framework for this line of thought. BTW, what is the correct plural of Optimus?
According to Latin, Optimi ….
I think you’re underestimating how difficult it will be to make it a generalised robot.
I say 2032
It’s not about a perfect robot , it’s about a minimum viable product that grail bough people buy. 2026 latest
Quote (25:15ish) "I think FSD goes down as a 3 trillion dollar business and no one cares." You may be right about Optimus hitting before FSD & Robotaxi, I doubt it but you may be right. However, the above quote is probably the most fool hearty thing I have heard from you yet. 3 trillion won't matter? A subdivision in Tesla nearly the size of Apple won't matter?
Compared to Optimus. I am all for FSD, but Optimus is probably going to outperform it quickly.
@@jobhakdi Optimus should be able to drive
Yeah, replacing all drivers is a BIG DEAL! ther will be riots!
@@jobhakdi Agreed, but no one cares? FSD/robotaxi/cybercab together will move Tesla to 25 trillion market cap sooner than people think, that is if Elon and the Tesla team can execute, and yes they both matter. I as an invester will be thrilled if Elon and team make it to 10 trillion market cap but I don't tink we are stopping there with Optimus.
@@teslabot5650 Yea, how are all the kind, sweet to protect and serve😂officers gonna generate revenue from tickets and all the silly infractions people get stopped for when theres no more bad citizens?
More than 8,000 million people on earth today
Gutes Video
@@Viv8ldi Danke!
You are grate🎉🎉
I really like a lot of what you're saying and you think very clearly about it which is great.
Firstly I think you say "optimus is very low risk and won't kill anyone" but I think that's false.
Either optimus is only shuffling around doing nothing important ... which means it's not very valuable ... or it's actually doing real work ... which is dangerous. As soon as you give it a kitchen knife and tell it to cut vegetables it's dangerous. Even washing glasses can be dangerous if it manages to shatter broken glass on a child. Especially in a factory if it's welding or cutting etc that's very dangerous, humans are injured and die doing that all the time.
Secondly I think the military applications are really obvious and think all militaries will want to put in massive orders. Even now in Ukraine the US would love to send 100k optimus who are remote controlled by drone operators and no one cares if they step on a landmine. This is huge.
Thirdly I disagree about competition. If apple does the software and brand and foxconn does the manufacturing, just as they do with the iphone, that has everything required to be competitive. Same with OpenAI if they have the software they can contract a Chinese manufacturer to make the bots for them. Once it's proven to be possible people will come quickly and Chinese manufacturing is excellent.
Fourthly I think it's really complicated to see how the "scaling of tasks difficulty curve" works.
So for instance imagine if someone comes to you in 1970 and says "hey so we have computers now, they already took the human jobs who did arithmetic and the humans who did typing they're gone, and surely by 1990 computers will take all white collar work as it's just scaling up these intelligent systems right?"
Well it turns out that computers could do some tasks and not others and they changed work a lot and there was still a lot they couldn't do.
So with optimus how long is it before it can do underwater welding as a job? Or biolab work where it has to do really precise motions and not contaminate the samples? Or concert pianist with incredible dexterity?
Like sure if you want a patrol guard in a park who picks up trash and looks for thieves that's really easy and can be done in a couple of years. However I don't think it's immediately obvious that once there is demand for 1m optimus then you go to 10b optimus immediately. It may just be good at some stuff and not at others and it might take a long time to figure out the software.
In 2017 I was sure that FSD would be done by 2020, I mean they were about 95% of the way there surely it was right on the brink! Whereas it's still a ways away now, it's really hard to predict how long it will take to learn each task I think.
Anyway love your channel and your thoughts and I basically agree with everything else. Thanks for your clear insight and sharp analysis.
Thank you and very good points ! On safety , Optimus is multiple magnitudes less dangerous - it still needs to be risk mitigated but it’s by far not as hard as Robitaxis. Competition: disagree, I will cover this in another video. There are non obvious reasons why there is no strategic competitor . Military: yes, obviously huge - but I think Tesla will stay out of it. It’s super dirty and dystopian (but for sure another trillion $ opportunity). I know we and everyone else think we are the good guys , but terminators running around will change that image quickly . It’s going to happen very soon regardless , but better to not touch it imo
Like the cars , each bot will send back info to the giant head. Every robot will have the same skills as every other, and their ability will increase exponentially. This will increase their use and value like a giant economic tsunami sweeping through the worlds' economy.
That is accurate.
I agree that Tesla will have to have many safeguards in place in order to minimise the inevitable risks with FSD. As Optimus will also be using FSD (albeit a less macro, more micro version), the risks will be the same - perhaps not as dangerous (the robot can cause much less damage than a speeding car) but it doesn't take much to imagine an Optimus tangled up in a power cord or falling into a garden pond, or worse, falling on a human.Obviously Tesla won't release a robot that can run before it can walk, but as its abilities grow the scope for real complications increases, probably exponentially and I see the precautions necessary being just as significant as that of FSD in cars.
I think precautions will be important for Optimus; but the scale and complexity of the safety issue is two or three magnitudes below FSD.
they will be slaving away on large dangerous equipment 24 hours a day
Conhecimento e vida
I think they'll sell the hardware and charge monthly fee for the software. model this out and the numbers don't take long to boggle the mind.
B2b = No union dues, no sick time, no retirement funds, no corruption.
👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻✌🏻💫
And that's just by selling them (one-time revenue), but most probably Tesla is going to lease them as Cern Basher says. Then we would have to ad one more zero to the numbers.
If Tesla rents vs sells, I see even more profits, perhaps a subscription service for various skill sets.
Where do they build Optimus ?? Austin ???
Fremont / Palo Alto!
Palo Alto is a Laboratory, Fremont is at capacity, check out recent drone flights over Fremont.
@@rosspatterson44 I meant the prototypes . Larger production we have to see, but consider that Optimus needs much less space, so Austin would be a possibility
You promised to bring more videos on UNIVERSAL BASIC INCOME
Did I?
@@jobhakdi sorry I got confused with another UA-camrs. Anyway, bring a couple of videos regarding UBI, universal basic income🙏 do you think they will implement it before 2035? or before 2030?
You assume there will be no crises until then or wouldnt that make any difference for optimus?
you mean a financial market or geopolitical crisis? That is always an impediment, but I don't think a major thing is going to happen (fingers crossed)
@@jobhakdi i mean financial, there is some Risk of geopolitical but don‘t think very high. I just Wonder that we had no real financial since 2008 i believe and thats a very Long time i think it should happen every 7-8 years on average and a big crises every 100 years
@@kingjtjt It's very hard to predict a financial crisis, since everyone is trying to do that. It can happen at any point. However, there are reasons to believe it's unlikely (1) very high liquidity and money printing drives up nominal value 2) world is actually much more stable than it looks with every key player being a capitalist country 3) big US companies print enormous amounts of profits and valuations are not crazy based on growth and productivity 4) sentiment is pretty moderate and tons of people are scared of recession etc, which means not much can happen
@@jobhakdi okay, thats interessant thank you. The debasement to me Looks Like a Blog off top at some Point because the s and p Chart goes exponential with more and more debasement and higher P/E ratios so I have that at the back of my mind and give it a 20% Chance that something Could Happen and Most likely will in the next years. Another Point would be that the gap between the haves and have nots would grow more and more. One good thing is however that i believe the bots and Energy Department could even in a crises perform relatively good and is Not as effected as cars which would give Tesla some internal diversification
@@kingjtjt financial crisis can always happen with a 20% correction (= Tesla 40% correction) without much reason. But bigger crash unlikely imo. Social crisis is far out , it will get worse (Gini) and a major crisis is coming , but slowly (more than 3 years out imo )
What about competition from China?
It’s coming and it’s coming hard. I put out the call by 2030 to be the leader and future of robots
China will destroy everyone in the future as they already are on the path to do so
I will do a separate video on this - competition might be overrated
tOptimus to the moon!
Don't get me started on the moon. All the mining there will be done by Optimus Astronauts.
A 75kg optimus could hurt family members.
It’s true, but risk mitigating this is much easier than a robotaxi
The bots in factory will be very slow. Just look at the dexterity and moving platforms and articulation needed just to drive a screw in different places.
If you watch factory workers on the line. We are 10 years away from getting bots in to replace the normal line…. Unless the whole process is redesigned to make humans redundant yet I think we’re far from that process
What's up with the big-boobied robots at 3:57?
Both female and male robots, as to not offend anyone.
😂
I agree with your predictions, however I believe your timeline is a bit bullish. The reason why is if you look at the Model 3 ramp and even the Cybertruck time from announcement to release, and then ramp, those were both new technologies that took a longer time to deploy than expected. There are many small challenges which could arise. Also, the direct to consumer case is not coming until after the industrial case for Optimus at least. Tesla have mentioned this before. The progression will be Tesla factories, then other factories, then other business use cases. Rhey will be doing jobs that are dangerous and boring. All of this has been mentioned. Again, I love your spirit, and I believe that it will come to fruition however, they are not gonna be sold direct consumer for for at least a couple years after factories, which will take a few years to scale and deploy, and then there will be teething issues. Robots are coming, just not quite as quick as you are hoping for. We shall see! Check back on this comment at the end of 2025. Lastly, Elon himself has said many times “we are in the business of making the impossible, late.” this will happen, but it will not happen in 2025 as you expect unfortunately.
Grounded. I think 2028 even if they are burning the midnight oil and Elon has his whip lashing it around.
People have no clue the complexity of setting up servicing. Skilled workers. Site locations. Permitting. Supply chain. Logistics.
Tesla as amazing a company it is. Has about 10 years work of backlogged projects already and maybe shall we say 15 before we even can take a peek what their hiding in the future up here lovely skirt
I think Optimus is dramatically less risky than FSD to deploy, and dramatically (10-100x) easier to manufacture than Model 3 etc. - that's why I am bullish. I think tesla can get to a 10k / year run rate next year, and needs less than 18 months for building large scale production (1m / year).
Problem is what will Tesla do with all the free cash flow
faster than 8/8?
He doesnt believe in 8/8
Don't forget the government can certainly order a few hundred thousands of Humanoids soldiers. With their AI brain and 100% accurate sharpshooter. Can be scary as we move another step towards Terminantor/Skynet scenario.
Military applications are far and wide, but I doubt Tesla will engage in this - it's too dirty and bad for image.
Governments will draft robots to war but Elon already anticipated this. His robots will "walk slower than a running human & can only lift 50 lbs." Elon has made Optimus unable to fight a war.
Only the Pessimists would disagree with your analysis about Optimus. BadaBoom.
And who likes the Pessimists. All their glasses are half empty.
Have to pivot the pump, FSD going nowhere thus ride the AI hype.
Eventually they will be abel to sell much more than Million Eventually.
But I don't think that they will be abel to sell that at the margin of $10,000.
That margin is very high, and you can only make that when you are a monopoly or has a major market share.
But I don't think they will be monopoly,
There will be huge Competition, so Margin will be less.
Infact margin (as a percentage) from FSD will be heigher amd optimus.
Because in FSD there is less competition because of high entry barrier (because you need huge datavto train FSD, which others don't have).
I think it will be a RaaS model with software updates, and about $5k / year margin, which is even bigger than $10k one time. Monopoly: I will do a video on this, I think it will be much more of a Tesla monopoly than it seems today.
I think market got already careful about elon promises, and your timeline is like 5 years too early. Tesla may get huge price drop due to falling ev market at no gov subsidies. No product compensate it short term.
100%
Not 25 trillion in annual revenue.
Why not? $12.5k / year Robot as a Service (RaaS), 2 billion robots = $25T. Could be more over time.
An insurance against not getting an UBI.
How many Tesla shares do we need to manage without UBI when labor isn't a thing anymore?
Having some of those could be an insurance against being replaced by an Optimus. The grater risk for that happening, the greater value of the stocks!
384 Tesla shares at $2'600 (ARK Invest's price for 2027, or so) would become $1M. Assuming 10% income from that million would be about enough, wouldn't it?
So, start accumulating Tesla shares, while you still have a job, if you don’t already have enough of them. Because UBI might not come!
Haha you are right, Tesla shares are your best hedge against UBI risk!
What exactly are the 7 billion humans going to to do with 168 hours of free time and no income every week?
They will be vaping. On drugs. Jumping off buildings. Watching pron. and whining how Elon has the coastal mansion but they get paid apartment living 😂
In all seriousness. Yes it will be an epidemic of depression and questions of life coming to humans near you
That's a topic for another video called the APOCALYPSE. But at least we will go under as very rich Tesla shareholders.
@@jobhakdi wouldn't it be a nice change if we knew the paint color b4 buying the whole darn car?
Honestly I think this thought process is overstated, yes it will give humans more time but as humans have done throughout human history they pivot. It’s too easy to think about doom and gloom in these scenarios, it’s time to think up some more ingenuity.
@@nitinchilakamarri3906 it's a question. The bias comes out in answer to it.
Missed the train at $140😢 not sure if this is a buy now
@@KrishnaDharma21 think long term and watch more videos to form your opinion !
Not financial advice, but: YES
Come on man….FSD has already a revenue stream, today, Optimus is 2026+
I mean robotaxi revenue. FSD subscriptions are nice but not game changing
@@jobhakdi FSD and robotaxi are the same, revenue from subscriptions just kicked in Q2_2024
Seguramente es alguien disfrazado, para mi. aun no tienen el poder sus maquinas son dependientes.
Well can one win 10 green jackets? ( golf). I doubt it. But maybe it can fold laundry and cook. That makes it sexist. And nobody is going to be able to say to sombody else “YOU’RE LAZY”….. because the bots will be everywhere. And everyone will be ‘lazy squared’
I think human beings will obviously interact train and Optimus will mimic human beings as well build relationships and become much more valuable as a personal and or corporate servant or robot. It will actually feel like a friend, a buddy that is really helping out your business and helping out you as the homeowner Because we are working on artificial intelligence and humans are really dumb and love new friend. ❤ Elon start building and selling these immediately I want one.
As a $TSLA shareholder, I truly hope you are right, but I just don't see how they can manufacture thousands of Optimus units in 2025, let alone even have the design completed by then. Prove me wrong, please!!
I think Optimus manufacturing is easier nearly proportionally to its weight compared to Tesla cars. Once they are happy with whichever version is the first commercial one , tens of thousands run rate manufacturing lines will take less than two years to build. I would not exclude the possibility that Tesal has 1000+ capacity for Gen 3 by end of this year. Everything about Optimus is a magnitude or so easier than cars (except the AI)
Its not that big, its complex. I bet most suppliers would be down with a potentially unlimited demand product. And they can produce themselves eventually. I don't think thousands in 25.... under 1000 working in the factories and the lines ready. thousands in 26
They wont. Remember they need data from real world data.. so it will take 2-3 yeats to get feedback from customers so mass production will wait for version 5 maybe.. also the profit for it will also take a long time.
@@pse2020 they are the customer. It gets updated every week it takes days not years. Its on version 12 now. GOD you know NOTHING
@@teslabot5650 tesla does not represent the world... U cant train it at tesla and then expect it to suddenly work in a grocery.... This will take time guys...
How will governments replace the lost tax income due to robots working for "free"? Robotic tax men? They are going to have to raise taxes somehow...
Overly optimistic view. Cycles to sell Optimus will be large for the first two then severely reduced by 3rd because of regulatory concerns around the world. If you think for one second that governments will allow a humanoid robot to be sold without regulation while starlink receivers, Tesla cars, mini drones for civilians and even some phones had to go severe scrutiny, you are deluding yourself.
I'm massively bullish in Tesla and Optimus, but you were singing praise without mentioning a single risk and that's the definition of delusion. If a bot falls over and kills a child, thats not a simple thing like you said that can be resolved easily, that would LITERALLY stop humanoid bots until they are completely reconfigured to a point where their commercial viability might be in question.
Sell the optimism but don't overlook the risks.
I don't think I am overoptimistic - check out my FSD video, I am more critical than most on the timeline. On Optimus, I think things will develop faster than people think for the reasons I mention. Regulatory concerns are very minimal - right now, you can sell robots with zero regulation.
@@jobhakdi Agreed, which is why Cycle 1 and 2 of sales will be large but will be severely curtailed by Cycle 3. No government is allowing this technology to be sold without immense scrutiny and regulation. A bot that can eventually be modded (just like anything technical) is a major security risk. Tesla would be on the right path if it addresses these concerns from now; not by Cycle 3
With FSD we already see that data becomes the bottleneck, even though Tesla collects it at a massive scale. Your assumptions that Tesla stock goes to the moon due to Optimus require it to meet expectations. Human need to produce massive amounts of training data for Optimus to enable it to do anything valuable. This is a massive effort and RoI could be very challenging.
Progress in AI is not exponential. It is logarithmic. Initial fast progress and then the effort for small improvements increases. It is not just Tesla, also at other AI companies, progress has slowed down while they pour billions of Dollars worth of compute into their AI projects.
There is a risk that Optimus might end up in not be competitively skilled traditional robots or human labour.
All AI projects are incredibly expensive and need to earn back the money. Timelines until a certain level of performance is reached are also impossible to predict as noone has really understood the AI model itself.
Most AI projects lose money and this will continue for quite some time. There will be the moment where tech companies cut their capex expenses and then, nvidia stock will suffer, too.
I hope Tesla succeeds in their AI aktivities, but it is a very very bumpy road to profitability.
I believe Optimus is already good enough end of 2024 to be sold in the millions. My point is that the threshold for Optimus is FAR lower than for FSD.
Why is everyone so giddy about displacing millions of workers across all industries? This would be a calamity on the order of a long civil war. If you think paying everyone “basic income”, an equal chunk of money to each person is a great idea, then you aren’t thinking straight.
I am predicting the future. It doesn’t mean that this is the best choice - just something that is inevitably going to happen. Optimus has superior economics for businesses. The social implications have to be discussed separately
because as human labor approaches the cost of zero, the cost of goods and services will also begin to drastically drop. the deflationary pressures of technology will help us all. in 1490 i'd be giddy about the printing press despite putting scribes out of business. people should not have to toil. we should always be striving for automation. jobs, especially the ones optimus will replace first, are handcuffs as much as they may pay the bills.
@@__D10S__ Deflationary pressure on goods and services would not happen because the cost of production goes down - it would be because consumers left with no income cannot afford them anymore. That would in turn cause reduction of production and shrinking of the economy including manufacturing of robots. Unlike human workers, robots don’t have needs like food and shelter. So when workers are displaced economy goes down the tubes.
@@MK-nv8sl you are thinking about things in a way that does not leave any room for feedback mechanisms. it's too linear.
okay, so what happens when large swaths of consumers have no income? assuming other jobs aren't created by this automation, what do these people do? do they do nothing? do they organize around their common plight?
if large masses of people become permanently unemployable, then, no matter how much an aversion you have to ubi, something like it will become necessary. the productivity gains from mass automation will fund that UBI. the prices of goods and services will fall as energy/ labor approach the cost of 0.
think for a moment. cost of labor is priced into everything. the truck drivers to drive the goods to your town. the people assembling the goods. the people stocking the shelves. if the cost of labor halves (it could theoretically go much lower), then prices will fall dramatically. as robots assemble more robots, this trend will only continue. the economy is primarily constrained by birth rates (labor). unlimited labor = near unlimited growth. a fraction of this unlimited growth will fertilize the people with more inputs into the economy, keeping the flywheel spinning.
capitalism is moribund. something new will take it over that will accommodate this new reality.
I hear what you're saying but youve missed a key catalyst that represents a 100 trillion market. That's the humanoid fem bot. Give me my deaux ex machinima😮
It will be the (deserved) end of Tinder.
Tesla should find jobs simple enough for these bots to go to work immediately. Then Tesla can add abilities in an App Store. I think picking fruit is a simple job they could do now, but difficult enough that Tesla would be bc able to show the world their broad usefulness.
😂😂😂😂😂😂
I believe you are very optimistic, and using Elon's $10T market is making the false assumption that robots will be paid the same wage as humans, but in fact will be far less. Otherwise why replace a worker with a robot?
Yes I agree that Tesla will be very successful at selling Optimus robots, just not as wildly profitable as you state. Also the stock price already has most of this future gains built in, so stock price will not go up nearly as much as you think.
2 billion robots. 10k per year in margin. 20 trillion revenue, mostly profit. 200 million robots, 2 trillion revenue. Reduce labor costs by 90%
It’s not robots be paid
It’s how much a company can expand and service and grow and progress and save through using bots.
So for a wild example. Right now how many buildings are on Mars? Now how many could potentially be built if we sent over 40k bots to build and left to their own programming. Remote programming. Updates….
That’s the power of bots to run endlessly as the en shoal on point and click and bingo. You have something working on stop and the potential just expands the more bots you have on the project / site / planet
Do you think that in 2035 with the advent of AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) and ASI (Super Artificial Intelligence) they will introduce universal basic income!? a subsidy!? there will be free will!? an era of abundance will begin!? the intellectual and motor capabilities of robots have already surpassed the average human and before 2035 there is talk of them surpassing those of any human and then again those of any human combined! regarding both body and mind! answer me please...
Why are your ears so red? Lol 😅. Just observation. I am w/ TSLA since start.
Lol it was hot in that room
These things are not made for outdoors. GPS does not work indoors. Assembly line robots work well because they are static and work with precise measurement. Wheeled robots in Amazon fulfillment centers use the wheels to measure and require superflat floors. The problem with humanoid robots will be their precision. They are not fixed static and will have to use cameras for measurement. This will severely limit them in regards to precise work. They will have to measure distances using very precise trig with multiple angles with legs instead of wheels. As far as robotics go humanoid robots are a novelty. They are not the best robotic solution for most applications. I have a feeling these will end up in the garbage.
If the bot is as least as capable as human for a task, then it’s not garbage. Humans are useful, yes, despite not having absolute micron level precision built in? Any criticism of superior to human bots is also a criticism of humans. If bot is sub human ability, that’s valid, but this situation won’t last long.
@@carl-Sp I don't see it doing a good job laying brick, paving roads, framing houses, hanging shingles, pouring cement, picking tobacco etc. Complete pipe dream in humanoid form. There are already good tobacco harvesters and implements that pick all kinds of perishables that are not in human form. The thing that would have ended slavery, the cotton gin was not in human form. Seeking human for for the robot is just a sci-fi novelty and unnecessary.
@@JacquesTreehorn So I can keep my job if I outperform one bot? The bots still take my job because I need a wage, the bots don’t. As bots get ever cheaper I need to outperform two bots, then four bots etc. Reframing as humanoids v specialised robots is misdirection. The bots are coming after the manual jobs humans do today, starting with the easiest and working up the skills ladder.
The bots will cost ~$5k - $10k / year. Humans cost 10 times that. Bots also work 2-3x more time. That means bots need to only be 1/20th as productive per hour than a human. Is Optimus 20 times slower than a human when it assembles battery packs or folds clothes? No, more like 2 or 3 times. And that's today. Game over, humans!
Look at this tesla stock promoter and his minions. Most likely paid as well. Lemme quickly hit the "Do not Recommend Channel Button."
how long until 100% safe level 5 autonomous driving! and what level of autonomous driving are we at now? Has Tesla reached an advanced level 3? or are they shades of a level 4? (I mean the beginning)
But will they put UBI before 2030!? Many pioneers including billionaires, scientists, Nobel Prize winners, engineers, architects, analysts and so on and so forth... almost all agree on the fact that we will have AGI in 2027 and ASI in 2029 and they look and evaluating the exponential technological acceleration curve, I wonder why they have not yet implemented universal basic income to anticipate the trends that will come from it. Just to name one, Elon Musk says that we will have AGI as early as 2025 and ASI in 2029.
There are just a few months left until the release of CHATGPT 5 and the FOURTH INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION will take place!!!!!