Around 2010 I was a "normal person" living in ignorance. After a major life event and a major breakdown I dove straight into isolation. This man Ray gave me hope when hope seemed fruitless. I try to be careful to not turn an individual into a savior. However I will always have great respect for Ray, I appreciate the way he has utilized his intelligence to increase the quality of life for all. If I saw Ray in public I'm not sure I'd bother him, I would only be a distraction for him from his great work! To me that'd be a crime. So whatever happens in the future, Ray, thank you for opening my eyes and giving me back hope!
I’m very happy to read about your experience! There is a lot to be hopeful about in life and Ray Kurzweil definitely offers us a beatific vision of the future-although there are significant likely perils to avoid.
I pay for UA-cam Premium to avoid ads. This is one of the most heavy ad-laden channels out there. He doesn’t need the money, why not just put out uninterrupted content?
I worked for a tech marketing consultancy in the 90’s. The partners touted Kurzweil to anyone who would listen even back then. Kurzweil and the partners were way ahead of their time. So grateful to have been under their wise tutelage.
00:00 🤖 Ray Kurzweil's Predictions for AGI 00:47 📺 Introduction to Moonshots & Ray Kurzweil 02:04 📈 Abundance 360 & Predicting the Future 03:01 📊 Data-Driven Optimism & Tech Trends 03:40 👥 Ray Kurzweil & Peter Diamandis' Relationship 06:38 💡 The Singularity & Human-Level AI 09:28 🧠 Future of Brain-Computer Interfaces 11:39 🏥 Importance of Blood Glucose Monitoring 12:47 💻 Predictions for AGI 15:17 🤖 Probability of AGI Success 16:22 📚 The Singularity is Nearer 20:02 📈 Exponential Growth in Personal Income 20:59 🤖 The Law of Accelerating Returns 24:45 📊 Large Event Models 24:59 🏥 Fountain Life 27:05 🤔 Concerns about Job Loss 29:39 💼 New Types of Jobs 30:38 💸 Universal Basic Income & Taxation of AI 31:19 🤖 Human Need for Challenge & Purpose 32:26 📈 Upleveling Human Purpose & Intelligence 34:15 🧠 Brain-Computer Interface & Neuralink 36:02 🔬 Nanotechnology & Its Applications 40:33 🏆 Nobel Prizes & AI 41:13 💡 The Future of Medicine & Protein Folding 42:50 🏥 Longevity Escape Velocity 45:28 🤖 The Impact of AI on Biological Discoveries 47:16 📆 Predictions for the Future of Longevity 48:20 🧠 Brain Mapping & Expansion 49:58 📺 The Future of AI-Generated Content 51:49 🤖 Future of Virtual Presence & Remote Work 52:30 💡 Simulated Biology & Pharmaceutical Development 55:11 🧬 Viome & Personalized Health 56:47 🤔 Questions from the Twitter Audience 59:48 🤖 Uploading Consciousness into a Robot 1:00:02 📚 Preparing for the Future 1:01:22 🤝 Centralization vs. Decentralization 1:02:26 🤝 Democratization of Skills & Knowledge 1:03:36 🤔 Passing the Turing Test 1:05:09 📈 Escalation of AI Capabilities
The rich can never have enough. They want IT ALL. AI will destroy our society for sure going as it is. The rich have taken it all for themselves once again. Nothing ever changes. Probably why we see no life out there in the universe. This is how it always ends. 😂
50:50 I just now downloaded Ray's book, turned it into a PDF (by Cloud's explanation) uploaded it to a notebook, made a podcast and listened to it. 20 fascinating minutes. The subtle is an opportunity, going to be beyond imagination.
I want to listen to it in Chinese several times to improve my chinese listening ability haha. I have qtranslate and deepl the clipboard translators, so i just google for chinese books with subs translating partial english an chinese with CTRL+A CTRL+; (hot keys i put on qtranslate) with my bookmarklet see it once with subs and listen to it 3-4 times passively after that.
Another zog puppet that did nothing and got pushed to the top by the zog infrastructure. He funded covid to get his mRNA programs going for his selfish life extension aims.
They talk about how AI will unleash medical advances and accelerate organ replacement technology. But they don’t talk about who will be able to afford these advances. Certainly not the millions of people who will be displaced by AI. It will only be available to wealthy individuals and those with access to advanced healthcare.
@@YT2go4me It's always been that way, and while certainly not ideal, I'd rather eat the breadcrumbs of a high-tech civilization than the roast mammoths of the stone age.
It’s not the number of jobs lost that presents the unsolvable problem; it’s the speed at which those jobs are going to disappear. Once companies have a solution that eliminates the need for most are all employees, they are not going to hesitate to use it, and they must use it to stay competitive. In the past, things changed more slowly, and we had enough time to adapt and evolve to new jobs. Going forward, we are not going to create new jobs overnight, and we are surely not going to create a ratio of one-to-one for jobs replacing those that are being lost. The speed will be staggering. This is not a speculative exercise. We’ve already seen the opening act with mass layoffs in technology. This was the first wave or precursor of what’s to come.
Right on. Spot on. Why is this so hard for people to get? Why would I hire a human for 55k a year plus benefits when I can get the super bot that will do all the same things ( better ) for 5k a year. (10 year robot lease)
@@mhawxhurst Exactly, even if you could theoretically dream up a new job for a human worker who has been sacked from a previous job. What job could we do that an AI/robot could not do better, faster and therefore cheaper? No business will choose to employ humans, particularly if their competition is using robots.
these types always be ignoring this, or that seaking "intelligence" for just because is not the goals for everyone and we stil have the issue of most all of the resources taken up by the few that when accounted for, can actually provide for most people on the planet... so even if we get all robots, its not like those in power will suddenly change and start thinking about the actual good of humanity.
Thats why its important to solve this in alternative ways (i.e. UBI) cause guess what, no matter how productive companies will become with robots and AI, if big amounts of population are unable to spend money to buy their products it all would be useless, and economy collapses. Governments and companies are aware of this as well, and thats why I really think there will be solutions to make that transition the less harmful as possible
20:20 us constant income Then computation per constant dollar 50:30 google program summarize book to podcast Notebook LM 1:06:52 optimism and pessimism, the best evidence that we are living in a simulation is that this is the most amazing time in which to live
Dr. Diamandis, working closely with AIs has given me unprecedented access to knowledge and problem-solving capabilities. However, this shift towards relying on AIs has unexpectedly altered my social dynamics - I find myself craving structured conversations and sometimes struggle to connect deeply with others.
My dad, who’s almost 80, it blows his mind how much money I make and yet how we can’t afford anything so I had him pull out his paystubs (still has them) from when he bought the family home in the early 80s and it’s easy to show him just how much the ratio has collapsed into a worthless paycheck. The numbers don’t lie. His house was way fewer years of income than if I tried to buy it today making way more.
@@jacks7217 You must be a landlord / CEO / boomer and routinely get away with exploiting peope out of greed. Enjoy your luxuries you tell yourself you've "earned," because karma will collect.
Just around the corner? I just hope we got something just in time to save my mom dying from dementia. She's currently 88. I believe in you Mr Kurzweil.
I truly enjoy listening to all these advancements from brilliant minds like yours. I have a program request: How can we fix the housing crisis, health insurance costs, and the cost of higher education that are currently crippling our youth. All of these areas don't appear to be able to adjust to these technical advancements fast enough. And yes, I do say please and thank you when interacting with LLMs for the same reason. LOL
The scary thing is, with a human level AI in a robot body, that is able to carry out the work of say a police officer, a soldier or prison guard. What would an army of these controlled by a despot be capable of? In history despots created great suffering, but were often eventually overthrown. How would a subjugated society overthrow a despotic ruler with an army of these robots? It seems it might be impossible. What then? Its a terrifying thought to consider.
I always though of Ray Kurzweil as a foolish person who wanted to live forever.. but now that we see his predictions are spot on, which i think was largely luck.. regardless. I thoroughly enjoyed the conversation, and really enjoyed Ray's personality. Ray is super relaxed and doesn't take everything so seriously.. Peter too.. great chat guys!
No, guys, the reason why personal income increased from 1774 to today is because people went from growing their own food and householding to doing everything through the market. So non-market activities (growing food, making your own clothes, breeding your horses for transportation) turned into market transactions (buying food, buying clothes, buying cars). As we've moved toward more disposable goods, the need for transactions has increased, so the need for increased income to fuel our transactions increased. For example, in the 1980s, we'd buy a new phone every 5-10 years. Now we buy a new cell phone every 2 years, and the phones are more expensive.
Amongst the many problems I have with Ray’s decreasingly feeble logic is this. Income as a function of market participation and activity is being conflated with individual property ownership. Individual ownership of land and really even just agency and tangible value since that’s what he’s really trying to infer has increased has fluctuated - decreasing, increasing, and plateauing over this period. I’m not sure he’s going to reach escape velocity although if he does, will he be the Ray that made the synthesizer or the Ray that thinks that we actually have mRNA vaccines? What personality will persist? The who that Ray is, as with all of us, is something that changes over time. Will we get an idea locked neuronally mylenated Avatar or a neurogenesis of the genius ?
I don’t want to merge with AI such that all I have to do is access my “memories “ to find any answer. I want a clear distinction of my mind and AI mind. One is a hive mind, the other is me interacting with something other.
There will never be abundance for the rest of us. Under the current model abundance is only for the top one percent. This is marching in leaps and bounds towards the dystopia portrayed in the movie Elysium.
For sure, phones may give us new utility but in the end they cost us money and attention and they’re not making most of us any richer, they cost us more than they give in return.
Peter, you have to have less Ads. As I would like to forward this link to people, but I cannot as you are constantly pitching products and it comes across as snake-oil salesman. So just putting all these Ads into your content, its self-defeating. People cannot forward a link with constant Ads for skin-lotion, etc.
i think the reason ray kurzweil says 2045 for the singularity is because we dont have a perfect simulation to model the world yet and so any improvements have to be applied in reality which is much slower
Regarding Universal Basic Income (UBI), it’s astonishing that even highly intelligent people can only envision maintaining the consumerist aspect of humanity, rather than imagining a fully satisfied life for future generations. I mean, it’s not enough to just have some money that cannot fulfill a person’s needs.
"Problems are inevitable", "problems are soluble" (provided enough knowledge): David Deutsch's "The Beginning of Infinity". You should consider interviewing him too. Also check the (somewhat) counter arguments to Ray in Geoffrey West's book "Scale". Thank you for having brought him again to us: was the start of my path and had honor to dine next to him, chat and have his book (TSIN) dedicated ... long ago 🙂
In the early 1980s, while I was attending the Berklee College of Music in Boston, Ray Kurzweil released his first commercial digital sampling keyboard, which, along with MIDI sequencing, allowed a single musician or composer to emulate the sound of virtually any band or ensemble, including a full big band or symphony orchestra (or pretty close, at least). The students and faculty at Berklee were stunned by the Kurzweil's sound quality and performance abilities, and many feared their imminent replacement by computers and digital instruments, and this came to pass very quickly. With artificial intelligence, and the power of mathematics and parallel computer processing (GPUs), music composition and production will soon be dominated by technology. See harken music for a new mathematical proof for 12-tone music.
It makes me so sad to see that all this is going to happen, but those at a certain age will not live to see the benefits to it's full extent. Those people supported the new generation, created them, brought them up, helped keep everything together, made a lot of progress to start all of this in the first place. It feels rather unfair.
My grandma is deep into dementia right now and I take care of her all the time. I’m just grateful I won’t have to do this for my parents. It’s hard but worth it knowing how bad off she would be alone I couldn’t live with myself leaving her alone. If we can’t solve dementia which I hope we can, then at least I’ll have robotic help for my parents and I won’t be alone that’ll help a lot. My parents work so they don’t have the time or energy to take care of grandma much
Sufficiently intelligent AI should, in principle, be able to use physics and the current state of the universe to reconstruct minds. If we all end up in the simulation future, I fully expect a revival of loved ones, Christian-heaven style!
I'm a OG, Techie from the 60s, but I agree with my top 4 analyst, who predict an age of Abundances:, Tony Seba, Peter Diamandis, Elon Musk, Michael Saylor and Ray Kurzwell, who I met through Peter Diamandis 10 years ago. Phenomenal thinkers & Futurist!
52:05 when he said, peter 2 of 10 meeting Ray 3 of 10, immediately made me think of the Borg from Star Trek: TNG. 1:00:02 go into the trades: electrician, plumber, elevator repair, mechanic.
At the end I noticed he avoided answering the question about predicting the IQ for LLMs from a year or so. That’s pretty smart so he can’t be wrong whatever happens in the meantime. And gives himself another 5 years to be in the correct zone,well until ASI actually comes by 2029 instead of just AGI😉
This is a great video to watch! I quite enjoyed it. Glad to know more jobs will appear after AI just like there's fewer farmers but more jobs than farmers now. Now to go read his latest book the publisher sent me!
A particularly interesting discussion between two of the most important figures in their field. I would like to see a deeper analysis of the topics of democratizing artificial intelligence, transhumanism, and simulation."
"I believe that everything discussed in this interview will happen in a much shorter time frame. The acceleration of technology will likely make these predictions a reality much sooner than expected. The nature of technological evolution, which feeds on itself and grows exponentially faster, tends to surprise even the experts. As advancements in artificial intelligence, automation, and brain-machine interfaces become more integrated, we will likely witness a far quicker and deeper disruption than initially predicted.
It should be mappable - like maybe a book that follows the trend of how much it costs to compute vs the change of adaptation of the 100% - we had cellphones for the rich (drug dealers) before the regular people and way ahead of "you can't exit without one"
When listening to futurists like this, they never take into account the time it takes to roll out such inventions. We've had good electric cars now for some time, but they are still in the minority on our roads, as is the infrastructure needed to serve them.
Great discussion! These LLMs are witty, which is something that could be discussed in the future. They definitely deserve pleases and thank yous, as we are talking with them on emergent levels. That's just my two cents.
No ! The thing started this Ai rollercoaster was the learning algorithm.as soon as a learning program was create the Ai train left the station. It starts slow but it’s always accelerating 😂
Love Ray. You look younger every day. Your commitment to beating aging is inspiring. I think you need to revise your Singularity date down about a decade. We are arguably at AGI by 2025 and then the curve accelerates exponentially because AGI will design Exponentially self improving AI. Given free reign for self reprogramming an AGI with unlimited compute will achieve new levels of intelligence in a few years tops. The human adoption framework is the bottleneck and the societal adjustments necessary are the show stoppers. We literally have to restructure our social frameworks and wealth distribution frameworks to optimized for human wealth and satisfaction. A wealth sharing framework that allocates a minimum standard of living based on shared GDP of the economy and maintains wealth incentives for work and advancement that gives people purpose and satisfaction. It's truly a challenge for visionaries like you and Peter to lead us through - you are the founding fathers of a new society. Recognize and lead it.
Our technological advancement is more than we realise. It is a force of nature we are following just as much as we are walking on the ground due to gravity and although starting slower it has been with us since the first cave man used the first tool. You could almost see the desire to progress technologically as a drive experienced by our species as a whole. Our advancement from that first cave man didn't start there, it goes all the way back to the beginning. How could we have the complexity of the universe we see with no innovation? How could single cell life have become multicelular? We are dancing to the tune of the cosmos, not defining it. Read Mandelbrot's book on the Fractal Geometry of Nature and then take a look at the Holographic Principle which is picking up speed within acedemic circles. The funny part about this, is that I as an individual are also not seperate from it and am following patterns through obvservation of what I have seen. So, given I know this also means many more people are waking up to it also. So, if I'm right, we will see an exponential increase in the number of people saying the same thing, as ultimately, we are fractals.
It's a prediction based on the relationship between the amount of money for the speed of computing and the tracking of the implementation of technology - I can only assume that he is close to the emergence of larger technological adaptation not the specific technology itself. Ie, he was adamant about the ability to have a platform to search the amount of information online, not the name google or the ability to have enough storage for storing photos, not the specific social network or company FACEBOOK, He also could say that's why mySpace faltered due to the lack of cellphone throughput and ability to share photos because of the transmission speed specific to the cost per dollar of storage - not the crystal ball version of educated guesses.
33:00 same with why people didn't merge with cars and jets and boats, I rather not be able to get hacked. how about having a personal assistant robot that follows you around and you ask it questions this tech will work wonders for the ministry of truth
Agreed regarding the Nobel Prize. An MD doesn't make sense as a requirement. If there is progress being made in that field, that is all that matters. It doesn't matter if a computer is involved.
Leopold Aschenbrenner, from-chatgpt, fears that AGI could fall into the wrong hands. China, for example. If this becomes real, what could happen to humanity?
Saying you predicted AI in the 80’s is like predicting a field of study after it existed for 40 years. Perhaps Alan Turing should have been referenced.
@@OceanGateEngineer4Hire So what you are saying is back in the 80’s, the movie The Terminator required Ray Kurzweil to predict the obvious trajectory of AI?
Economy needs Manufactures and Machines are the perfect Manufacturers because they don't consume what they produce. And Economy need also Consumers to maintain Efficient and the Civilization Alive and humans are the perfect Consumers because they always want the best of the best thanks to be a controlled by Survival Darwinist Algorithms.
Around 2010 I was a "normal person" living in ignorance. After a major life event and a major breakdown I dove straight into isolation. This man Ray gave me hope when hope seemed fruitless. I try to be careful to not turn an individual into a savior. However I will always have great respect for Ray, I appreciate the way he has utilized his intelligence to increase the quality of life for all. If I saw Ray in public I'm not sure I'd bother him, I would only be a distraction for him from his great work! To me that'd be a crime. So whatever happens in the future, Ray, thank you for opening my eyes and giving me back hope!
I’m very happy to read about your experience! There is a lot to be hopeful about in life and Ray Kurzweil definitely offers us a beatific vision of the future-although there are significant likely perils to avoid.
Youre welcome
@@moderncontemplative
So many promote Gold Hoarding Strategies while stating Hope is NOT a strategy!
All hail Raymond!
Same here, let's go !
Kurzweil seems to be getting healthier! Im so happy about this! I really hope he makes it to longevity escape velocity.
I pay for UA-cam Premium to avoid ads. This is one of the most heavy ad-laden channels out there. He doesn’t need the money, why not just put out uninterrupted content?
Maybe it's because he believes in what he's promoting. Why do you actually think all advertising and sales is bad My god
I've not watched one of his ads. At least when it's part of the video, you can skip right over it.
@@tehtechie1 he has ads that fukn help you lolol. ok bud
@@TrevorFosterTheFosterDojo I certainly don't need to see the same damn ad in every Peter Video. Why you so triggered by people skipping ads lol?
@@tehtechie1 triggered. lol ok bud.. git gud
The fact that this only as 40,000 views 6-days after release shows how early we are in the curve of public awareness and curiosity.
LOL. that is funny.
I worked for a tech marketing consultancy in the 90’s. The partners touted Kurzweil to anyone who would listen even back then. Kurzweil and the partners were way ahead of their time. So grateful to have been under their wise tutelage.
00:00 🤖 Ray Kurzweil's Predictions for AGI
00:47 📺 Introduction to Moonshots & Ray Kurzweil
02:04 📈 Abundance 360 & Predicting the Future
03:01 📊 Data-Driven Optimism & Tech Trends
03:40 👥 Ray Kurzweil & Peter Diamandis' Relationship
06:38 💡 The Singularity & Human-Level AI
09:28 🧠 Future of Brain-Computer Interfaces
11:39 🏥 Importance of Blood Glucose Monitoring
12:47 💻 Predictions for AGI
15:17 🤖 Probability of AGI Success
16:22 📚 The Singularity is Nearer
20:02 📈 Exponential Growth in Personal Income
20:59 🤖 The Law of Accelerating Returns
24:45 📊 Large Event Models
24:59 🏥 Fountain Life
27:05 🤔 Concerns about Job Loss
29:39 💼 New Types of Jobs
30:38 💸 Universal Basic Income & Taxation of AI
31:19 🤖 Human Need for Challenge & Purpose
32:26 📈 Upleveling Human Purpose & Intelligence
34:15 🧠 Brain-Computer Interface & Neuralink
36:02 🔬 Nanotechnology & Its Applications
40:33 🏆 Nobel Prizes & AI
41:13 💡 The Future of Medicine & Protein Folding
42:50 🏥 Longevity Escape Velocity
45:28 🤖 The Impact of AI on Biological Discoveries
47:16 📆 Predictions for the Future of Longevity
48:20 🧠 Brain Mapping & Expansion
49:58 📺 The Future of AI-Generated Content
51:49 🤖 Future of Virtual Presence & Remote Work
52:30 💡 Simulated Biology & Pharmaceutical Development
55:11 🧬 Viome & Personalized Health
56:47 🤔 Questions from the Twitter Audience
59:48 🤖 Uploading Consciousness into a Robot
1:00:02 📚 Preparing for the Future
1:01:22 🤝 Centralization vs. Decentralization
1:02:26 🤝 Democratization of Skills & Knowledge
1:03:36 🤔 Passing the Turing Test
1:05:09 📈 Escalation of AI Capabilities
Peter, you've got so much money, seriously, what's up with all these ads every few minutes?
@@CristiVladZ an entrepreneur at core
People don't get to the point where they have a ton of money by just leaving it on the table. You can get sponsorblock and an adblock to skip it all
The rich can never have enough. They want IT ALL. AI will destroy our society for sure going as it is. The rich have taken it all for themselves once again. Nothing ever changes. Probably why we see no life out there in the universe. This is how it always ends. 😂
50:50 I just now downloaded Ray's book, turned it into a PDF (by Cloud's explanation) uploaded it to a notebook, made a podcast and listened to it. 20 fascinating minutes.
The subtle is an opportunity, going to be beyond imagination.
I want to listen to it in Chinese several times to improve my chinese listening ability haha. I have qtranslate and deepl the clipboard translators, so i just google for chinese books with subs translating partial english an chinese with CTRL+A CTRL+; (hot keys i put on qtranslate) with my bookmarklet see it once with subs and listen to it 3-4 times passively after that.
Great idea
Its awesome to see Ray look and sound so on form! Its literally as though he has finally started to reverse his ageing ;)
Kurzweil looks like he got younger and sharper compared to the last time I saw him. Wow
It's the haircut
@@jigglejaggle4732I think you mean hair piece.
Nah he looked less bright previously. He is popping off right here
Kurzweil is a living legend, The Singularity Is EVEN Nearer!
lol no! He is OVERATED as fock...
Another zog puppet that did nothing and got pushed to the top by the zog infrastructure.
He funded covid to get his mRNA programs going for his selfish life extension aims.
bs
It's nowhere near.
Your phones are "near". The question is how far "near".
Thank you for addressing the job market aspect and the UBI, Peter.
I see Ray I do a thumbs up 👍🏻
Succinct is a sign of high intelligence and efficiency.
I see!! You're a simple man 😂
They talk about how AI will unleash medical advances and accelerate organ replacement technology. But they don’t talk about who will be able to afford these advances. Certainly not the millions of people who will be displaced by AI. It will only be available to wealthy individuals and those with access to advanced healthcare.
exactly
Don't say this too loud or else us peasants won't get the leftover breadcrumbs from the elites 😂
@@YT2go4me It's always been that way, and while certainly not ideal, I'd rather eat the breadcrumbs of a high-tech civilization than the roast mammoths of the stone age.
It’s not the number of jobs lost that presents the unsolvable problem; it’s the speed at which those jobs are going to disappear. Once companies have a solution that eliminates the need for most are all employees, they are not going to hesitate to use it, and they must use it to stay competitive. In the past, things changed more slowly, and we had enough time to adapt and evolve to new jobs. Going forward, we are not going to create new jobs overnight, and we are surely not going to create a ratio of one-to-one for jobs replacing those that are being lost. The speed will be staggering.
This is not a speculative exercise. We’ve already seen the opening act with mass layoffs in technology. This was the first wave or precursor of what’s to come.
Right on. Spot on. Why is this so hard for people to get? Why would I hire a human for 55k a year plus benefits when I can get the super bot that will do all the same things ( better ) for 5k a year. (10 year robot lease)
@@mhawxhurst Exactly, even if you could theoretically dream up a new job for a human worker who has been sacked from a previous job. What job could we do that an AI/robot could not do better, faster and therefore cheaper? No business will choose to employ humans, particularly if their competition is using robots.
these types always be ignoring this, or that seaking "intelligence" for just because is not the goals for everyone and we stil have the issue of most all of the resources taken up by the few that when accounted for, can actually provide for most people on the planet... so even if we get all robots, its not like those in power will suddenly change and start thinking about the actual good of humanity.
Thats why its important to solve this in alternative ways (i.e. UBI) cause guess what, no matter how productive companies will become with robots and AI, if big amounts of population are unable to spend money to buy their products it all would be useless, and economy collapses. Governments and companies are aware of this as well, and thats why I really think there will be solutions to make that transition the less harmful as possible
This is not an interview, Ray Kurzweil spoke like 10 times in 1 hour
We definitely want more from him
20:20 us constant income
Then computation per constant dollar
50:30 google program summarize book to podcast Notebook LM
1:06:52 optimism and pessimism, the best evidence that we are living in a simulation is that this is the most amazing time in which to live
Between the ads and him name dropping its a hard watch. The man is clearly a visionary but his insecurities are exhausting.
Dr. Diamandis, working closely with AIs has given me unprecedented access to knowledge and problem-solving capabilities. However, this shift towards relying on AIs has unexpectedly altered my social dynamics - I find myself craving structured conversations and sometimes struggle to connect deeply with others.
How long have you worked with AI's? Like a year or two?
Average person makes 10x what they did a hundred years ago but cost of a house is 100x what it was 100 years ago.
My dad, who’s almost 80, it blows his mind how much money I make and yet how we can’t afford anything so I had him pull out his paystubs (still has them) from when he bought the family home in the early 80s and it’s easy to show him just how much the ratio has collapsed into a worthless paycheck. The numbers don’t lie. His house was way fewer years of income than if I tried to buy it today making way more.
And what you can do and have access to is 10,000x what you had 100 years ago.
@@fromduskuntodawnHousing is real issue but it’s not the only factor to measure the progress
@@jacks7217 You must be a landlord / CEO / boomer and routinely get away with exploiting peope out of greed.
Enjoy your luxuries you tell yourself you've "earned," because karma will collect.
you can thank mortgages for that
Just around the corner? I just hope we got something just in time to save my mom dying from dementia. She's currently 88. I believe in you Mr Kurzweil.
I truly enjoy listening to all these advancements from brilliant minds like yours. I have a program request: How can we fix the housing crisis, health insurance costs, and the cost of higher education that are currently crippling our youth. All of these areas don't appear to be able to adjust to these technical advancements fast enough. And yes, I do say please and thank you when interacting with LLMs for the same reason. LOL
Same. Lots of talk about visions of the future, but people need information thats useful to them NOW.
The scary thing is, with a human level AI in a robot body, that is able to carry out the work of say a police officer, a soldier or prison guard. What would an army of these controlled by a despot be capable of? In history despots created great suffering, but were often eventually overthrown. How would a subjugated society overthrow a despotic ruler with an army of these robots? It seems it might be impossible. What then? Its a terrifying thought to consider.
I always though of Ray Kurzweil as a foolish person who wanted to live forever.. but now that we see his predictions are spot on, which i think was largely luck.. regardless. I thoroughly enjoyed the conversation, and really enjoyed Ray's personality. Ray is super relaxed and doesn't take everything so seriously.. Peter too.. great chat guys!
No, guys, the reason why personal income increased from 1774 to today is because people went from growing their own food and householding to doing everything through the market. So non-market activities (growing food, making your own clothes, breeding your horses for transportation) turned into market transactions (buying food, buying clothes, buying cars). As we've moved toward more disposable goods, the need for transactions has increased, so the need for increased income to fuel our transactions increased. For example, in the 1980s, we'd buy a new phone every 5-10 years. Now we buy a new cell phone every 2 years, and the phones are more expensive.
Amongst the many problems I have with Ray’s decreasingly feeble logic is this. Income as a function of market participation and activity is being conflated with individual property ownership. Individual ownership of land and really even just agency and tangible value since that’s what he’s really trying to infer has increased has fluctuated - decreasing, increasing, and plateauing over this period. I’m not sure he’s going to reach escape velocity although if he does, will he be the Ray that made the synthesizer or the Ray that thinks that we actually have mRNA vaccines? What personality will persist? The who that Ray is, as with all of us, is something that changes over time. Will we get an idea locked neuronally mylenated Avatar or a neurogenesis of the genius ?
It’s the oil stupid.
Always up for a long episode from Moonshots; huge fan of your works Mr. Diamandis, best regards!!
Ray better survive long enough to see all this crazy sh*t!! Love Ray have been reading him since 2000.
I don’t want to merge with AI such that all I have to do is access my “memories “ to find any answer. I want a clear distinction of my mind and AI mind. One is a hive mind, the other is me interacting with something other.
Where can I watch the Abundance 360 talk where Elon, Ray and Geoffrey was present?
There will never be abundance for the rest of us. Under the current model abundance is only for the top one percent. This is marching in leaps and bounds towards the dystopia portrayed in the movie Elysium.
For sure, phones may give us new utility but in the end they cost us money and attention and they’re not making most of us any richer, they cost us more than they give in return.
Peter, you have to have less Ads. As I would like to forward this link to people, but I cannot as you are constantly pitching products and it comes across as snake-oil salesman. So just putting all these Ads into your content, its self-defeating. People cannot forward a link with constant Ads for skin-lotion, etc.
Agreed. The ads are annoying as hell. I actually blocked the channel for a year or so because he just irritated me. But I always gotta click on Ray.
I don't think he even sees any comments, so will just go on doing the same old thing. Oh well, its his loss as he is shooting himself in the foot.
Just stopped the interview. Not listening to all his ads I suggest others do the same.
Just unsubscribed
i think the reason ray kurzweil says 2045 for the singularity is because we dont have a perfect simulation to model the world yet and so any improvements have to be applied in reality which is much slower
Regarding Universal Basic Income (UBI), it’s astonishing that even highly intelligent people can only envision maintaining the consumerist aspect of humanity, rather than imagining a fully satisfied life for future generations. I mean, it’s not enough to just have some money that cannot fulfill a person’s needs.
"Problems are inevitable", "problems are soluble" (provided enough knowledge): David Deutsch's "The Beginning of Infinity". You should consider interviewing him too. Also check the (somewhat) counter arguments to Ray in Geoffrey West's book "Scale". Thank you for having brought him again to us: was the start of my path and had honor to dine next to him, chat and have his book (TSIN) dedicated ... long ago 🙂
Love rays style, very childlike, but he's clearly a genius
Will the planetary digital currency really be AGI?
In the early 1980s, while I was attending the Berklee College of Music in Boston, Ray Kurzweil released his first commercial digital sampling keyboard, which, along with MIDI sequencing, allowed a single musician or composer to emulate the sound of virtually any band or ensemble, including a full big band or symphony orchestra (or pretty close, at least). The students and faculty at Berklee were stunned by the Kurzweil's sound quality and performance abilities, and many feared their imminent replacement by computers and digital instruments, and this came to pass very quickly. With artificial intelligence, and the power of mathematics and parallel computer processing (GPUs), music composition and production will soon be dominated by technology. See harken music for a new mathematical proof for 12-tone music.
You are doing great and I can not wait to see what you are doing at year 25!!!
Thank-you for this conversation ❤❤❤ .
I can't afford your lotion, forget about escape velocity medicines
Holy shit, I had that same. I was hiking a mountains with that Kurzweil book as well and it took a lot of room from bagpack
It makes me so sad to see that all this is going to happen, but those at a certain age will not live to see the benefits to it's full extent. Those people supported the new generation, created them, brought them up, helped keep everything together, made a lot of progress to start all of this in the first place. It feels rather unfair.
My grandma is deep into dementia right now and I take care of her all the time. I’m just grateful I won’t have to do this for my parents. It’s hard but worth it knowing how bad off she would be alone I couldn’t live with myself leaving her alone. If we can’t solve dementia which I hope we can, then at least I’ll have robotic help for my parents and I won’t be alone that’ll help a lot. My parents work so they don’t have the time or energy to take care of grandma much
Sufficiently intelligent AI should, in principle, be able to use physics and the current state of the universe to reconstruct minds. If we all end up in the simulation future, I fully expect a revival of loved ones, Christian-heaven style!
I'm a OG, Techie from the 60s, but I agree with my top 4 analyst, who predict an age of Abundances:, Tony Seba, Peter Diamandis, Elon Musk, Michael Saylor and Ray Kurzwell, who I met through Peter Diamandis 10 years ago. Phenomenal thinkers & Futurist!
Another great interview Peter.
Do you take recommendations?
I'd love one with Palmer Luckey.
52:05 when he said, peter 2 of 10 meeting Ray 3 of 10, immediately made me think of the Borg from Star Trek: TNG.
1:00:02 go into the trades: electrician, plumber, elevator repair, mechanic.
Love hearing from Ray, we go back to I've got a secret.
Ofcorse hes offerings something for the rich only haha😂 therapeutic indeed
My guess is that within the next year, there will be research of Nobel Prize-level significance in 10 different fields.
Thank you Ray and Peter. Lots of inspirational ideas and confirmation of progress.
We don't need more technological intelligence. We need more emotional intelligence/empathy. We need to learn how to get along.
Peter you need a new spinning globe in the background on your shelf, it stopped spinning via solar / light! P.S. I have one they’re great 😂
At the end I noticed he avoided answering the question about predicting the IQ for LLMs from a year or so. That’s pretty smart so he can’t be wrong whatever happens in the meantime. And gives himself another 5 years to be in the correct zone,well until ASI actually comes by 2029 instead of just AGI😉
I hope to shake Rays hand, in about 30-50 years from now.
This Year 2 Nobel prize were given one in Physics and other in chemistry both for AI. One to hinton and other for Protein folding to Demis Hassabis.
This is a great video to watch! I quite enjoyed it. Glad to know more jobs will appear after AI just like there's fewer farmers but more jobs than farmers now. Now to go read his latest book the publisher sent me!
Thank you Peter, I look forward to your podcasts 💯
Thanks Peter for doing this video. 🙂
"Creative Leisure", a book by Domenico de Masi, says that we humans were not born to perform harsh work, but rather to be creative and happy.
A particularly interesting discussion between two of the most important figures in their field. I would like to see a deeper analysis of the topics of democratizing artificial intelligence, transhumanism, and simulation."
"I believe that everything discussed in this interview will happen in a much shorter time frame. The acceleration of technology will likely make these predictions a reality much sooner than expected. The nature of technological evolution, which feeds on itself and grows exponentially faster, tends to surprise even the experts. As advancements in artificial intelligence, automation, and brain-machine interfaces become more integrated, we will likely witness a far quicker and deeper disruption than initially predicted.
It should be mappable - like maybe a book that follows the trend of how much it costs to compute vs the change of adaptation of the 100% - we had cellphones for the rich (drug dealers) before the regular people and way ahead of "you can't exit without one"
“I got you your first job!” “Well, kinda!”
Would have been interesting to ask Ray about the shift towards more nuclear energy!
Ray, I'm still waiting for your nano tech predictions from Age of Spirtual Machines.
So when we all have neural links implanted, we won't be able to shut off the advertisements. They'll have us where they want us. :-)
End of times
When listening to futurists like this, they never take into account the time it takes to roll out such inventions. We've had good electric cars now for some time, but they are still in the minority on our roads, as is the infrastructure needed to serve them.
Thanks you Ray you are giving me hope for future 😢❤🎉
Great discussion! These LLMs are witty, which is something that could be discussed in the future. They definitely deserve pleases and thank yous, as we are talking with them on emergent levels. That's just my two cents.
AGI robots taking jobs will get the wrath of the jobless masses if governments dont look at providing UBI soon
The man who started it all!
fraud
No ! The thing started this Ai rollercoaster was the learning algorithm.as soon as a learning program was create the Ai train left the station. It starts slow but it’s always accelerating 😂
From 80 % in food production to todays' 2 % engaged is already a loss of most jobs - yet, self created jobs have thrived
Its going closer to THE HUNGER GAMES
I have done lots of research with artificial intelligence, I can definitely say ignorance is not bliss in this field.
Love Ray. You look younger every day. Your commitment to beating aging is inspiring. I think you need to revise your Singularity date down about a decade. We are arguably at AGI by 2025 and then the curve accelerates exponentially because AGI will design Exponentially self improving AI. Given free reign for self reprogramming an AGI with unlimited compute will achieve new levels of intelligence in a few years tops. The human adoption framework is the bottleneck and the societal adjustments necessary are the show stoppers. We literally have to restructure our social frameworks and wealth distribution frameworks to optimized for human wealth and satisfaction. A wealth sharing framework that allocates a minimum standard of living based on shared GDP of the economy and maintains wealth incentives for work and advancement that gives people purpose and satisfaction. It's truly a challenge for visionaries like you and Peter to lead us through - you are the founding fathers of a new society. Recognize and lead it.
16:16 Ray always be plugging his book LMFAO
Peter, I built my own ChatGPT a year before ChatGPT. Nothing happened in the last year. people just are more aware through a fancy UI
Is it public? What's it trained on and what do you feel like it could be utilitized for a gain?
Our technological advancement is more than we realise. It is a force of nature we are following just as much as we are walking on the ground due to gravity and although starting slower it has been with us since the first cave man used the first tool. You could almost see the desire to progress technologically as a drive experienced by our species as a whole.
Our advancement from that first cave man didn't start there, it goes all the way back to the beginning. How could we have the complexity of the universe we see with no innovation? How could single cell life have become multicelular? We are dancing to the tune of the cosmos, not defining it.
Read Mandelbrot's book on the Fractal Geometry of Nature and then take a look at the Holographic Principle which is picking up speed within acedemic circles.
The funny part about this, is that I as an individual are also not seperate from it and am following patterns through obvservation of what I have seen. So, given I know this also means many more people are waking up to it also. So, if I'm right, we will see an exponential increase in the number of people saying the same thing, as ultimately, we are fractals.
He waste time with ads and junk stuff
Humans and robots maybe would have same mind capabilities, but it's more than that, it's about different mindset, an experience of the world.
AI will seek from humans what cannot be quantified (with our current mathematics)...spontaneity of consciousness
Such a natural head of hair on this young man.
I’m curious about Ray’s thoughts on digital privacy, as he works with Google ..
Less accidents: Insurance reform?!
Less illness: Insurance reform?!
Ray seems like a good guy, what a mind he's got.. hope he's correct and that these developments truly are positive for us all
If he doesn't know what
will happen in a year, how can he claim to know what will happen in twenty years😅? 1:05:20
It's a prediction based on the relationship between the amount of money for the speed of computing and the tracking of the implementation of technology - I can only assume that he is close to the emergence of larger technological adaptation not the specific technology itself. Ie, he was adamant about the ability to have a platform to search the amount of information online, not the name google or the ability to have enough storage for storing photos, not the specific social network or company FACEBOOK, He also could say that's why mySpace faltered due to the lack of cellphone throughput and ability to share photos because of the transmission speed specific to the cost per dollar of storage - not the crystal ball version of educated guesses.
Love will stay unchanged❤
33:00 same with why people didn't merge with cars and jets and boats, I rather not be able to get hacked. how about having a personal assistant robot that follows you around and you ask it questions
this tech will work wonders for the ministry of truth
I would like an AI 🤖 buddy
I’m here to show my support for the basilisk. Carry on. That is all.
You notice how Peter said he always says "please" and "thank you" to LLMs just in case they remember him being nice when they gain sentience...
Great content, but you deserve a far better setup
I guess there are a lot of ads on here 😂
Good thing there’s the skip button and ad free UA-cam
Yes alpha fold. It did the equivalent of 1 billion years worth of PhD work in protein folding and I believe that was in a single weekend.
Agreed regarding the Nobel Prize. An MD doesn't make sense as a requirement. If there is progress being made in that field, that is all that matters. It doesn't matter if a computer is involved.
How many folks will be left behind the intelligence 'rush'?
Leopold Aschenbrenner, from-chatgpt, fears that AGI could fall into the wrong hands. China, for example. If this becomes real, what could happen to humanity?
Look at the wars started by each country in the last decades and ask yourself if you are really looking at the right place.
@@Raulikien precisely, its NATO and USA, Israel
It is so disturbing to listen to these two talk about robots replacing us and how amazing it will be.
consciousness ? is there anything like this?
Nice hairpiece
Ray bald af
What a time to be a live ❤❤❤❤ .
Saying you predicted AI in the 80’s is like predicting a field of study after it existed for 40 years. Perhaps Alan Turing should have been referenced.
Kurzweil didn't just predict that AI would happen, he predicted when and how it would happen.
@@OceanGateEngineer4Hire So what you are saying is back in the 80’s, the movie The Terminator required Ray Kurzweil to predict the obvious trajectory of AI?
Obviously
Economy needs Manufactures and Machines are the perfect Manufacturers because they don't consume what they produce.
And Economy need also Consumers to maintain Efficient and the Civilization Alive and humans are the perfect Consumers because they always want the best of the best thanks to be a controlled by Survival Darwinist Algorithms.
So in 5 years time we can sit back and relax? Or things will just be wildly different from today? I’m really not sure what to expect.
Probably in between is my guess. No one really knows for sure. The one nearly certain thing is that it’ll be exciting and better than today.
Don't expect anything. He's a grifter.
@@andrewbatstone6816Care to refute the data in the graphs he presented? Or are you just gonna make baseless Ad Hominem fallacies?
@@OceanGateEngineer4Hireare you going to explain what ad hominem means..