How Javier Milei is turning Argentina's economy around | Ian Bremmer | Quick Take
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- Опубліковано 22 тра 2024
- We've had a first budget surplus that Argentina has enjoyed in over a decade. And monthly inflation, which has been significant highs and impossible for the people, is actually slowing down. After several administrations in Argentina doing their damnedest to destroy the economy, Milei is turning the place around. And by the way, this was not what I expected when the elections were happening.
Check in the comments to watch Ian's initial prediction on Milei's approach to saving Argentina's economy.
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Ian Bremmer's Quick Take: A Quick Take to kick off your week. And today, I want to take us to Argentina, where newly elected President Javier Milei deserves a round of applause, at least for where we see the country so far in his administration.
We've had a first budget surplus that Argentina has enjoyed in over a decade. And monthly inflation, which has been significant highs and impossible for the people, is actually slowing down. Now, that's a really big deal. After several administrations in Argentina doing their damnedest to destroy the economy, Milei is turning the place around. He's succeeding. And by the way, this was not what I expected when the elections were happening. When he was first elected, I wrote, “expect more economic collapse imminently. ” And clearly that didn't happen. And that's a great thing. for the Argentinean people. I'm happy to be wrong about this. And by the way, I'll be very happy if I could be wrong about Ukraine getting partition, that seems like a tougher one. But nonetheless, what happened and why has he been more successful than I expected? It's worth thinking about.
Well, first of all, what the challenges were. Milei’s party has a thin minority in Congress, so he's had to use presidential decrees to push most of his ambitious economic reforms. He's the weakest president in institutional terms that Argentina has had in modern times. So he's swimming against a really strong current. And the Peronists who control a lot of power in Congress and among mayors and governors and the trade unions. I mean, these are people that would love to see Milei fail. So, first of all, my expectation was that no matter how smart well-thought through his economic policies were likely to be, the desire of the kleptocracy that's been in place for such a long time in having this guy fail and come back to power themselves, would be so strong that he wouldn't have any chance to get anything through.
#argentina @MILEIPRESIDENTE #javiermilei
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Why Ian Bremmer said: "Argentina's economy will get a lot worse before it gets better" - ua-cam.com/video/_VxUcCEwJeo/v-deo.html
Yall gotta pin this one.
It is worrying that Argentina will go from being anti-business to extreme capitalism (an economy that only works for large corporations). We need balance, not more extremes.
- Plan to improve education = Nothing (Milei reduced education budget 200%)
- Plan to improve health = Nothing (Milei reduced health budget by 200%)
- Plan to help SMEs = Nothing
- Tax reform to simplify and alleviate = Nothing (they only raised taxes) Argentine SMEs pay 50% taxes, while mining corporations take gold, lithium and rare earths and do not pay more than 1% (in Chile they pay 30% of taxes)
- Serious labor reform = Nothing. A decree that reforms 1000 areas of the state. Areas that cannot be changed by decree, without any consensus, or strategic vision that allows lasting and sustainable change over time.
- Remove environmental regulations (Glacier Law, Forest Law and Fire Law) + Remove the land law (Now you can buy land without any limit knowing that the large international investment funds have more money than almost all countries) + Ideas like “ Taxes are theft” + Ideas like “if a company wants to pollute, there is no problem” = Everything is set up so that large capitals exploit Argentina's wealth while they pollute and do not ask for a single dollar in return, to finance health, education or infrastructure.
- The cost of living has multiplied by three and purchasing power has fallen
- To hide the current economic disaster, the president insults and fights with all dissident voices along with an army of trolls to divert attention.
- The only real thing about everything Milei says is that politicians are a caste. But the current president is now the caste that works for the most powerful caste of all, concentrated financial capital.
Milei is a whacky person. He believes that his dead dog guides him. He doesn't have a clue of what he is doing. and lies all the time. He only does what her whacky sister advice him after spiritist rituals she performs. No one else. It is a mad government against science and reason.
@@suenoshumedospro5240I though he is the first to report a fiscal surplus in over 12 years in his first term. I’m not against capitalism myself only over capitalism with a goal of the monopoly. I appreciate your input I say give it time he’s new and who knows he could be wrong he could be on the right track. Argentina has been suffering with their currency crisis and deficits for a long time that’s nothing that can be fixed overnight. Inviting in capitalism can stimulate economic growth and development. As far as environmental protection there should be some sort of social responsibility for sure. He does seem to be a bit cracker like but at least he doesn’t pretend to be someone he isn’t.
Cutting social programs may be necessary to lower debts once the capitalist show up incrementally raise taxes again then reinstate what you had to loose in order to bring in future gains. If you have nothing to start with you haven’t much to lose. Most my gains in life took years of sacrifices. Single parent 3 jobs 60 hour weeks 7 days straight for 3 years to buy a house in Canada 🇨🇦 16 years ago. I think my kids had to make sacrifices too practically raised themselves because I worked double shifts sometime 16 hours .
It will pay off and I have an optimistic outlook for Argentina and I am rooting for them.
I spent four weeks in Argentina in February and March. Literally everyone I talked to loved him except government workers lol
America should have him as president, UK, Australia should have him for Prime Minister, he will save them, all of them, Milei is economic professor, don't BS with him
SUCH a good sign!
Argentine sentiments can change very rapidly.
lol true. Parasites hate him
The leeches Afuera
Monthly inflation in Argentina was 25% in December and now it's just over 10% and expected to drop into single digits in April. This is a direct result of the 'economic shock therapy' Melia has delivered.
WOW!
For May 5%
I'd like to see how poverty, HDI and income equality are faring.
@@meilinchan7314 inflation is the worst thing for poor people. So take a guess
@@meilinchan7314 inflation is never good for the lower class. They're the ones that most negatively affected by inflation because they own the least amount of asset. All there savings is in currency.
Rarely to see a public figure willing to admit they are wrong
Twice wrong saying the living standards of Argentinians are going to get worse. Hope he accepts he was wrong again in 4 years from now. Any bets?
@@jfm148 They are going to get worse before they get better.
@@emperorpicard4901 But after that, it will be difficult for a socialist to run for office
@@jfm148 That's the medicine. The damage was done all those years ago, this is the final devaluation before the reserves turn completely USD. Once USD use stabilize and propagate, asset values and prices will find an equilibrium.
@@joelzinho4600 Correct.
Milei is a legend, he is the man to do the job.......fingers crossed he turns Argentina around!
The guy is amazing, thank you very much , greetings from Argentina
As a Malaysian who has seen the best and worst of leaders like Milei - don't count your chickens till they hatch, he reeks of Thatcher and Mahathir.
Argentina blue ; hold my beer
Finally, someone is looking at this economic and political experiment with the proper attention that it deserves. Milei is no Trump nor a Bolsonaro, he is an economist who understands economic theory and is smart enough to have a plan and to know how to go about getting a broken economy back on its feet and flourish. It is indeed an experiment that if successful will make Milton Friedman a hero once again and become an economic model that other countries may well want to learn from.
Milton Friedman was never a hero or anything remotely close. Milei will fail because he's hitching himself to a dying horse.
Good to see someone’s ego isn’t big enough to stop him from admitting that they’re wrong
Too soon to tell. I hope the best for Argentina.
No its not
A lot of respect is due for the integrity of changing your mind and discussing it publicly! We need more of this!
He was wrong to change his mind, real wages have fallen by 25% since Millei took power. Show me where neoliberalism shock therapy policy has reduced poverty or inflation.
@@redclydesidehl6026 It is not healthy to be this angry. I am just commenting on someone being open to openly change their mind.
@@redclydesidehl6026 Show me where the policies implemented by the previous Argentine governments have worked. Certainly not in Argentina.
He is successful because he isn't afraid of his personal interest he is keeping interest of country first this austerity measures will cost him shirt term politically but he will become legend in Argentinian history
True, he always said he is not afraid of paying the political cost of reducing the size of the Goverment . And after a 35 % cut his popularity is still the same
Check the peso…. Smh
Milei is economic professor first class, he was God Given to Argentina, his immediate take down of government size by decisively cutting down government jobs is golden class wisdom. Argentina has a lot to thank him, he is not dictator at this stage. He is worth 6 legions of army
true . The most simple thing to do is create taxes. The difficult thing is to get rid of them and reducing the size of the State
Argentina blue ; hold my beer
Well done to put out there a correction or an update as new facts become available. 🤓 I am also glad to hear that the people of Argentina might have a better future at one point, as opposed to the never ending downward spiral.
Ian i really appreciate that you changed your ideas on this instance. I would like you to give the same benefit of doubt when it comes to US foreign policy alternatives and not just the establishment views. Thank you.
The problem with Argentina is a always a political one. Argentina is not exactly a poor country, but a very unstable economically. They’re not as rich as other white countries like Canada or Australia, but not exactly poor. Surprisingly quite developed too
That is the propaganda... I wouldn't believe that. Poverty has being growing since the 50s
@@jfm148 Yeah, but poverty was only around 4% as late as the 1970s, and at that time 70% of the population were middle class.
@@zddxddyddw What happened since the 50s? Is called socialism. Even the military had socialist economic advisors. I know first hand that.
@@zddxddyddw Argentina’s own Milei government puts 60% of the population under the poverty line thats only lower than Haiti.
@@jfm148Yes but the two decades after Peron, from the 50's to the 70's, were unstable but still growing. Then you had 20 years of recession, where deficits and debt were maximized and started printing money to cover all that up. Can you imagine changing 5 times of currency in a span of 20 years? Yeah, that happened between the 70's and 90'
I tend to whence when hear someone espouse libertarian ideals. I think they’re too rash, and too simplistic. That being said, I see this is a grand experiment for Argentina, and for the world. I’m rooting for them and I’m hoping they can turn it around under his leadership.
Very classy Ian, I respect you so much for your consistent sincerity.
Why do the ordinary Argentinians running away from Argentina????
Incredible what Miele has achieved with a mimority government
without arrest of his political rivals like Joe Biden and soon Anthony Albanese of Australia
Prayers for Argentina and Milei!
The fall of living standards was always going to happen with an overly inflated currency which is why previous governments avoiding doing it. I do think Milei is actually what was needed despite it being temporarily painful
Yeah, it returned to the previous levels before Milei took power, which I mean, you made the stuff worse and then just returned it to the levels before you made it worse? LOL
Galaxy brain economic tactics
@@SMGJohn Don't misinform, inflation is going down, prices too, hyperinflation is avoided, the market was favorable to Argentina that there are even businessmen willing to invest, it is determined to defend its borders and crime.
It's obvious that you don't know anything about economics.
@@asm7406
Provide any actual sources to your claims because the only ones I can find are 1 week old and only show a return to previous levels of inflation.
Also prices are in fact higher, at least according to these official Argentinian statistics published by their biggest bank.
So you clearly must have better sources than this Argentinian bank I looked up, please provide me.
@@SMGJohnI'd like to see yours first.
@@SMGJohn Hi, Argentinian here. Everything he said is true. Indeed inflation is back to where it was before Milei took office, but contrary to back then when it was constantly increasing, it is now going down month after month. Prices of some goods and services are still higher, but some are going down and in some cases we're even seeing deflation. Rents have also gone down and there is more offer now after the government repealed a previous law enacted by the last administration that had disastrous consequences for the housing market. Also, many international investors have declared interest in the country. And more impressively than anything else, banks are starting to issue long-term credits to individual people again, something not seen in this country in many years since the high inflation rates made it uneconomical for banks to offer credits and for people to pay them; and it's also something that most experts thought would take years to return if everything went well. So the economy is recovering slowly yes, but much faster than anyone had previously imagined (just like Ian admits in this video).
Brilliant Video. Kudos for admitting you were wrong. Refreshing to see someone admit they’ve made a mistake, as opposed to blindly retaining their rhetoric. Would’ve been nice to hear some statistics in terms of the economy etc.
It is a bit early to declare Mission Accomplished. Argentina's fundamental problems are still there.
Argentines bad education is the fundamental problem.
It´s a work in progress, is the right direction, Inflation is going down and we need our economy to grow now
Argentina inflation April 2023 8.4% inflation 2024 8.8% INCREDIBLE. In addition, the forecast of the economy according to OECD -3.5% is one of the worst data in the world. Poverty has risen to 60%, UNEMPLOYMENT is getting worst, .........ETC. Milei is a GENIUS.
lol
Any idea about the switch to USD? That is amongst the most important issues now
Milei postponed it because Argentina's Central Bank doesn't have enough USD in reserve.
For years I looked forward to hearing from Ian, but I lost touch when he said Russia would not invade Ukraine and if they did it would be a quick win, whereas I was extremely confident the opposite would prove true. I was really routing for Milei and appreciate your mea culpa here and just going to assume you gave one regarding Ukraine. I look forward to hearing more.
This confused me. The budget surplus means the government take in more money than it spends by cutting government jobs and expenses. But is the whole country in surplus, which means it exports more than it imports so that it has sparse money to spend?
To reduce govt. spending is to reduce GDP. Thus the economy is shrinking.
Against this, yes, the rising trade surplus is a help.
Lots of moving parts.
@@dixonpinfold2582you are kinda right , reduced government spending (especially on welfare and government employment) means less money in the economy but the amount of goods and services produced stays the same - lovering the inflation . If what you are saying was true it would apply the same at government spending of 90% GDP.
So in GDP numbers it may shrink but technically it does not, especially when you lower the taxes.
@@janpamua7714 That's sort of word-salady. While GDP of course includes private, non-government economic activity, on the public side, every dollar (or peso) of government spending counts towards GDP.
Having said that, there are multiple ways of stating GDP. For example, instead of private plus public sector economic activity, GDP can also be closely rendered as simply the sum of wages, profits and taxes. It does add up that way too.
In the present context the important thing is that in Argentina, slashing govt. spending has slashed GDP dollar for dollar. I mean peso for peso.😄 As one would guess, it works the same in the other direction too: if a govt. borrows money and then spends it, GDP rises by that amount. Deficit spending literally grows the economy, even though it's correct to view it generally as growth of dubious quality and not conducive to lasting prosperity (depending somewhat on just how wisely or unwisely it is spent).
I'm not an economist, economics is just a lifelong interest of mine and I learned all this through reading and in my job as research editor at a global investment bank which has economists on staff. Among other things I research, edit and write on economic matters every day.
@@dixonpinfold2582 Reduce government so the private sector can grow the economy. The GDP is already reduced when the state intervened in the economy.
Only Reduce what is not necessary for Argentina
See Max Keiser series from Argentina, he is pretty clear about real causes of country's decline, regards!
Your honesty has made me a subscriber. Good work!Good luck to Argentina!
4:55 They knew what they were doing. They were malicious not stupid.
Argentina blue; hold my beer
Establishment analysis tends to be bad on anyone outside their bubble? WOAH!
He only criticizes socialism, collectivism, corporatism and statism based on facts and data.
Sometimes some input from the other side can be surprisingly helpful.
Let’s see where the inequality is
MELLEI wants to sell all Argentina Assets to AMERICAN STOCK EXCHANGE
Ian Bremmer ,I generate superávit every second month by not paying the bills . Thus, how Milei got the superávit , by not paying the bills is 8:32 not a great process.
They are getting good money from China for the military base they’re building too.
Ian is the best political scientist around these days... I am still skeptical about Milei's personality and ability to turn Argentina around, but fingers crossed that he can.
Thanks Dr. B.
'Sponsored by BANK OF AMERICA', tells you everything you need to know about the people who're interested in taking control of their economy.
That's wonderful good news, finally. 😊
Maybe there is still a chance for the United States recovering 🤔
Sorry, but all I heard was 'a round of applause for the increase in poverty'
You can see your double standards and what is best for you.
The peronist one is here guys 😭
Always enjoy listening to Ian’s views, not just informative, insightful but also his openness and straightforwardness in the way he communicates.
Ian, you are too attached to what you think. The problem is that you can't admit it (even though you say you are willing to admit your mistakes). In Milei's case, as in the Israel-Hamas war, you seem to be detached from reality. Perhaps you should see Guy Sorman's (ABC - Spanish newspaper) article on Milei, where he clearly explains that being liberal is something else, not what Milei understood. You seem to mix your wishes with the analysis which in fact seems too superficial (at best). I am convinced that you are an honest person. This does not suffice as a virtue. A Hamas terrorist can also be honest, expressing how much he hates the Jewish people. If you don't get out of your bubble your analysis will follow the same path.
Argentina has a budget surplus because the country is bankrupt in substance it has no money to import anything and inflation is slowing down cause the people is so poor that it has no money to spend. Argentina has been begging China to extend its RMB swap line. The only lifeline Argentina has to buy goods and products to sustain it's economy. So despite Melei had said he wants to cut ties with China and Brazil and dollarize the economy, Argentina's FM is now in China begging for more business ties.
Don't be misinformed, the swap was already with the previous governments, the same ones that gave him a Chinese base in Argentina, with a 50-year contract and exempt from taxes, his minister only went to negotiate and talk with China not because of the swap, because of the relationship diplomat who was already there, SAID THAT HE WAS NOT GOING TO NEGOTIATE WITH COMMUNISTS, BUT HE HAS NO PROBLEM THAT OTHERS OR THE PRIVATE SECTOR DOES SO.
Do not pretend that he is not begging him when that is false, he is looking for more Western investors like Musk, who support freedom of expression and the free market. Inflation slowed down and began to fall, in fact prices are already falling, the Argentine peso appreciated 25% more than the dollar.
@@asm7406 The SWAP line was indeed set up with the previous government but it was due for review and China did ask Argentina whether it wants the SWAP line (meaning it is telling Melei in a very polite way it may cancel it) when he took office after he said he wants to sever ties with China.Where is Argentina going to find the money which it borrowed from the SWAP line?Inflation slowed down because Melei is cutting a lot of subsidies and jobs at the public sector making 57% of the country below the proverty line. As I said the people just don't have money to spend and of course inflation recedes cause demand is shrinking. No serious money is flowing into Argentina now. FDI is just a meager USD42m. The FM is in China begging for support and ask China to buy more Argentina products and increase the SWAP line. Argentina is in substance bankrupt and may just collapse before people really see the light at the end of the tunnel.
I'm from Argentina and you are so wrong, you have some data ok but your interpretation is really bad, Argentina is far away of bankruptcy since Milei's government is on charge, you say Argentina is poor, well I will not say many people is poor but actually that's not completely true, we have many people poor but our middle class is big, and we have lot of money outside the system, actually many people is passing through this using theirs savings on dollars, so we are even on this situation surviving very well, yes the consume is decreasing but is not because we are all poor, we are doing on purpose to take down abusive prices, so if we see things go high prices we don't buy anything and push sellers to take down prices to sell anything, is working and prices are starting to go down... You say we have no money to import? That's wrong because imports increased since milei remove regulations on many things, and central bank buy dollars every day thanks to flow on imports and people who is exchanging dollars to pesos to can survive the higth inflation.
About the Chinese swap, that's also lie, you say Argentina don't have any way to get money except China? Well IMF months ago say to Milei if need Money they can open new deal to give even more money than Chinese swap can, and commodities exports are coming to sell the season which every year is like 5 to 7 billion of money so swap is actually no big deal, Argentina exports do that easily, and you say we are going to beg for money to China when actually the visit on china is just a diplomatic visit and just a part of a round of many countries Argentina canciller Is going, where the most important is not even Chinese, the most important was France where we are joining OCDE, and Europe where we are going to impulse a bilateral trade between Mercosur and EU to increase trades between both big blocks. That is the most important, because is where the real money come from, OCDE can give us help to become developed country, and many are waiting to export and import from Europe which will be a flow of money to Argentina
@@akka2011hkchina will not cut swap I'm sure not because milei ask for but because don't want to lose the little influence get on past governments with the swaps, besides if china removes the swap Argentina ask or get money from other and china lose Argentina completely, and Milei will not take down the swap because was a contract that is already on going, Milei respect the law even if mean maintain ties with communist party for a time. Not serious investment? Well this video is proof that many investors are interested on Argentina, Elon musk is close to deal with Argentina maybe for open tesla or another business, and many investors are already investing on Argentina, that you don't know it is your fault. Even nearby countries companies are coming to Argentina soon, an Milei new law is investing friendly so just wait and you will see if the serious investment appears when his laws are approved by Congress, then the real deal will start
By the way china is also trying to investment on Argentina, if they follow free markets rules are welcome, so not surprised if you see china announcement of new projects on Argentina
@@Javier77040 There are always rich people in the poorest countries. As I said 57% of the population is under the proverty line and even the middle class is struggling. Yes they have dollar reserves and who doesn't in a country with 279% inflation. China SWAP line with Argentina is 18bn and U only have 6.5bn left which means U owe China 12.5bn. If China cancels the line U have to cough up 13bn. Fx reserves of Argentina is only 21.7bn and with average import of 8.7bn/month U only don't have money to pay back the SWAP line and pay imports. As for the IMF 44bn loan, do U really think the IMF will allow half of its loan to be used to pay back China? Get REAL! Also the IMF is still consdiering the loan and with IMF it comes austerity meaning more suffering for the ordinary guys. Argentina has default quite a few times over the past decades and that is why the IMF will be very careful in realsing new loans to Argentina. U haven't got even half of the 44bn approved yet so let alone additional loans. Just wait and see. Most of Argentina's export goes to China and Brazil so your FM is coming to China to ask for help. Come on U must be joking about joining the OECD. OECD's countries has a per capita GDP of 60K vs 13K for Argentina. This is not the 70s when Argentina is still rich. GET REAL!!!
During the elections he announced he wants to legalise organ selling. He wants to get rid of the central bank. This means he does not want to pay back the imf loan. There is only one way to do that. Become anti West and turn towards china. If they do not pay back the loan consisting of one third of all loans imf has in the world, then the whole west falls in economic despair. We the tax payers, lend it to Argentina in the time when money had value. That was the money meant for the old age care of all our elderly.
Your first error is to equate the IMF and the West. China is one of the IMF lenders. If Argentina is not paying back China's share of the IMF loan, China is unlikely to think "let's finance these deadbeats ourselves".
Your second error is to think that the whole West would fall in economic despair if Argentina fails to pay her debts. Argentina has already defaulted nine times on her international debts and no one among the West elderlies ever noticed. Argentina's debt to the IMF represents less than 0.1% of the West GDP.
I agree with Ian. At first, I thought that Milei was a simple minded character. He proved me wrong and it's good to see a country get back on its feet. Felicidades Argentina.
No economy turns around in a few months. It will take decades before a meaningful judgement can be made (as far as his term as president goes).
But don't you think your ''analysis'' on Milei was a bit biased to begin with? Because of his conservative postures...
In France, we are hoping for our own Milei
Why
Yes, the debt is lowering but at a cost of over 40,000 that lost their jobs.
Nonsense
Asian critics do not think Milei will succeed.
Appreciate your thoughts and the aesthetic.
It is worrying that Argentina will go from being anti-business to extreme capitalism (an economy that only works for large corporations). We need balance, not more extremes.
- Plan to improve education = Nothing (Milei reduced education budget 200%)
- Plan to improve health = Nothing (Milei reduced health budget by 200%)
- Plan to help SMEs = Nothing
- Tax reform to simplify and alleviate = Nothing (they only raised taxes) Argentine SMEs pay 50% taxes, while mining corporations take gold, lithium and rare earths and do not pay more than 1% (in Chile they pay 30% of taxes)
- Serious labor reform = Nothing. A decree that reforms 1000 areas of the state. Areas that cannot be changed by decree, without any consensus, or strategic vision that allows lasting and sustainable change over time.
- Remove environmental regulations (Glacier Law, Forest Law and Fire Law) + Remove the land law (Now you can buy land without any limit knowing that the large international investment funds have more money than almost all countries) + Ideas like “ Taxes are theft” + Ideas like “if a company wants to pollute, there is no problem” = Everything is set up so that large capitals exploit Argentina's wealth while they pollute and do not ask for a single dollar in return, to finance health, education or infrastructure.
- The cost of living has multiplied by three and purchasing power has fallen
- To hide the current economic disaster, the president insults and fights with all dissident voices along with an army of trolls to divert attention.
- The only real thing about everything Milei says is that politicians are a caste. But the current president is now the caste that works for the most powerful caste of all, concentrated financial capital.
Milei is a whacky person. He believes that his dead dog guides him. He doesn't have a clue of what he is doing. and lies all the time. He only does what her whacky sister advice him after spiritist rituals she performs. No one else. It is a mad government against science and reason.
Off topic, but your suit jacket and shirt look so soft and comfortable. Can you please tell me the brand? I would like to purchase for my husband.
Make no mistake, Milei is not a libertarian,. He has not used a single libertarian tool to solve anything. He raised taxes, capital controls are tighter as ever, international commerce is practically non existent and he is still printing pesos and increasing the debt. He is just another bureaucrat.
Okay🤣
Remember when trumps federal reserves interest rates were at 0? Remember when globalists purposely exaggerated rebranded seasonal illness to crash the then booming economy? Can't have people understanding the truth, can we? 🤣
Respect 🙏 subbing for the honesty and integrity of your talk.
Milei has done a wonderful job so far
AEARArg -- According to his dog: So far, he has been the best president of Argentina!
Argentina blue ; hold my beer
I totally agree, Ian❤❤
-- 100% BS. Don't waste your time watching this cheerleader and nonsense!
Good news for Argentina. Pakistan and Argentina are the countries on the mercy of Chinese banks. Pakistan 27 billion dollar debt and Argentina 22 billion dollars debt from China.
Argentina owns IMF $110billions, that has always been the root of their economic problems. China is one of the few countries still willing to lend Argentina money given Argentina’s poor credit history, but Miele was dumb enough to piss them off.
Both are under IMF debt mercy.
It may be the other way around. When you owe a large amount of money, the bank is at your mercy.
Trump will give Milei First Citizen medal when Trump wins in November.
I love the way to talk and think thanks
Libertarian economics works
No
Thanks for objective analysis.
Nice to see Ian recognize this progress, against his liberal bias. I saw recently someone call attention of Ian on X. We all want the best for Argentina, irrespective of our biases. Keep it up Ian. Not sure many other liberals will do as you are doing. I think that many right wing governments really get very unnecessary bad press by liberals without evidence
in fact that dubious surplus is the only number in Milei's favour, inflation rose drastically and now it seems to be settling in the same numbers as the previous president. All the remaining indicators are concerning, recession is hitting hard at the productive level and the appreciation of the peso is threatening for another devaluation in the next months, spurring further inflation.
I wouldn't be so optimistic in any way.
PD:for all those who are trying to give some positive numbers, the Statistics Institute of Argentina (INDEC) just posted this:
Construction: MINUS 42% year-on-year, -14% last month
Industry: -21% YoY, -6.3% last month
Foreign Trade: -2.9% YoY
Other numbers:
Salaries LOST 30% purchasing power
New car sales -36% YoY
Supermarket sales -11.4% YoY, -12.7 Jan-Feb 2024
Wholesale -6.2 YoY
Inflation 2024: 72.6%
That’s right, anyone can run a “surplus” in government by shutting down all government agencies, including universities. They haven’t begun to reduce the mountain of IMF debt and selling pieces of their economy to Wall St. by “privatization” will only come back to haunt them.
Free communism and Palestine 🙃
_TradingEconomics_ site, 9 latest headlines on Argentina:
Argentina Slashes Interest Rate to 50%
Argentina Consumer Confidence Improves in April
Argentinian Retail Sales Growth Accelerates in February
Argentina Economic Activity Contracts Less Than Expected
Argentina Trade Posts 4th Consecutive Surplus
Argentina Inflation Rises Below Estimates to 11% MoM
Argentina Industrial Output Contracts for 9th Month in February
Argentina Current Account Swings to Deficit in Q4
Argentina Jobless Rate Remains at over 2 Decade Low in Q4
Monthly inflation was 25.5% in December when he was sworn in. March: 11%.
Since he entered office the bank rate has gone from 126% to 50%.
By most measures things are still bad, but most of them are improving.
What are you talking about? Infaltion has been going down for 4 months straight. From 25% in December when he becomes president to around 8/9% now with proyections of it going down further. Where do you get your information from?
@@benjafranklin5996 They're insignificant leftists whose candidate lost the election. So their backup plan is to make stuff up. Leftism: the last resort of the worst people.
Qué buen análisis. Soy argentino que viajó y Argentina esta siendo una muy buena oportunidad. Muchos de los cambios que están por darse como quitar el cepo cambiario o la reactivación del mercado de trabajo van a disparar todos los valores.
One of the most expensive countries of the world in USD terms. Can Argentina print USD? Nop. Give this paradox 3 months.
Explain why print USD is a problem? I mean whole world use USD, if you have a strong export sector get USD is not issue at all 😂 I think Milei started his "paradox" on December past year.. we are on may, my maths says already passed more than 3 months 😂 maybe maths are broken or someone need to go back school
@@Javier77040 if… that’s the issue. If you have an export sector that will sell. But so far, only 6% has been liquidated, which is the lowest since 2001, I think, (not totally sure about this). Also, Milei traveled more to US than to any of the places inside our country that will provide him with the USD needed. Even D.F Cavallo is saying what I am saying. So I think you should be careful with your sense of security.
printing dollars is not a problem, is a solution that Argentina doesn't have
What a weird take. So praise at the beginning and then goes on to say well wages are down, consumption is down and people are hurting but dang they have a surplus.
It's the short term effects of the adjustment, I think Ian didn't thought that milei would carry those types of reforms and would just stay within the status quo because he didn't knew the guy
No reasonable person, who pays their own bills, would expect anything less. It's the hangover after the party. You can live large for only so long and then you need to learn to live BELOW your means so you can recover from the overspending and pay off your debts.
Yeah, yeah. We will see if the right wing nut job helps himself and his over the people. I’m capable of being wrong as we all are but history says other wise.
Why are you shouting? I almost died when clicked on this video.
lol
If poverty has increased and standards of living are down, how is that a success? Their stock market is up? How does that benefit the common folk?
Short term pain for long term gain. Stronger currency, lower inflation, etc. should help argentina grow sustainably.
You don’t know how economies works.
@@robertortiz-wilson1588 "You don’t know how economies works."
NO ONE DOES
@@ylstorage7085 You can understand complexity?
@@robertortiz-wilson1588 ok
God bless you in the Name of Jesus ❤❤❤❤❤❤❤
Greetings from Argentina 😊
Libertarian in Argentina means Fascism. Cry for Argentina😪
I cant remember where I heard it but it (nor if it is FACT) ebbs back into my mind every time I hear people changing their minds more often when they are wrong that they turn to have more correct takes later on. I think thats how it went. Again it may be bunk science or some quip I heard somewhere but it sounds hopeful and thats cool. As no one really likes a stick in the mud especially if they are shown to be wrong.
NONSENSE
And you said Trump would NEVER get elected.
🇵🇸🇵🇸🇵🇸🇵🇸🇵🇸🇵🇸🇵🇸🇵🇸💜💜💜
👍Great! After all,
"The man who never alters his opinion is like standing water, and breeds reptiles of the mind." - William Blake
Argentina is going to turn it AROUND. There's gonna be rough patches but then....... BOOM they up.
Surplus budgets are not a good thing, you just have to look at the consumption based gdp formula.
Some basic economics come handy before making any assessments.
OCDE awaiting minus 3,3% GDP growth for 2024.
respect
clearly it s not happening
AHAHAHAHAHAAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH SUCCESSFUL I CAN T BELIEVE IT
Great take.
Tucker Carlson is not a disinformation spreader! This is the first time and the last time I watch your channel.
Bizarre that you would analyse this so early. If one person can fix an economy within months then I guess it's really not that spectacular a feat to begin with. It can't be that simple.
So early? So, 6 months is too early? When Bremner expected failure? And failed to see his leadership skills and appointment competency?
As a Libertarian, I could identify with his passionate call for liberty and was with him all the way. Can't wait to see him at Freedom Fest this summer.
YES! (President Milei Attending the LP Con in DC this month, I believe, too.)
Very poor analysis. The government budget deficit before Milei was 2.5 and was supposed to end 2024 with 1.9, so saying this was a major achievement is not knowing Argentina economics. Inflation spiked at the end of 2023 and now is returning to normal levels.
And we are talking about primary budget, Argentinian debt is for the most denominated in dollars, which means that a devaluation of over 50% of the peso means the debt just increased 50% with the GDP decreasing, and not only government debt, private debt also.
Government deficit/surplus are highly correlated with economic activity, unless you destroy all natural stabilizers, which apparently is what is happening and is far from being a good thing and we still have to see what is the impact of the peso on devaluation on the countries debt service and external debt... All countries that did it were set back several decades, and this was when the economy was much simpler.
Again, extremely poor analysis. You have to double and triple check any good news from populists, for the most they are hiding major lies, which is the case.
I Love GZERO and Ian, but this is strike two... second time you guys drop the ball so hard that its questionable why...
He's cleaning up the central bank and has a good relationship with the IMF. Besides, check out those sideburns. I hear he's currently negotiating to sell the Falkland Islands.
They are being paid to tell lies.
1) "Argentinian debt is for the most denominated in dollars." But according to the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) in 2022, 95.5% of Argentina's central government debt securities were denominated in domestic currency.
2) "[D]ebt just increased 50% with the GDP decreasing, and not only government debt, private debt also." But only private debt issued in US dollars. And I doubt lenders were risking many US dollars by lending to private Argentinian borrowers doing business in pesos.
Stick around, I have to double and triple check everything else you wrote.
@@dixonpinfold2582 Sorry just went through the BIS data, and from the 116.8n billion dollar debt, . only 12.5 billion are fixed rate in peso. Then we have 56.2 in pesos and inflation linked, and 43.6 billion in foreign currency.
So let me correct my statement, most of the Argentinian government debt is either in dollars or inflation linked.
Considering the budget is 80 million, inflation was 211%, peso devaluated more than 50% and we have 100 billion in debt either in dollars or inflation linked, what does a primary budget surplus really mean?
And like I stated, primary budget deficit was already being corrected, it was only 2.4% at the end of 2023 and was projected to be lower than 2% in 2024 without Milei.
Yes he devalued the peso by 50% because that was it’s actual price. The government of Argentina was artificially boosting the pesos price. So the devaluation was merely the real price or the black market price of the peso made official. Good thing they did this too because the central bank of Argentina was on the brink of running out of dollars to subsidize the inflated price of the peso.
I'm surprised to see such a neutral opinion. Amazing video :) , greetings from Cordoba
Why is everybody talking about Milei? Milei made it happen in less than 5 months. This is unprecedent not only in the history of Latin America but in the history of humanity.
Check the peso….smh
Really Ian? I am in Argentina and no, he’s not turning the country around. He doesn’t have superávit yet as he said, net reserves at Central Bank are still negatives. He is as corrupt as anybody else here. Caputo, the economic minister was the one that tanked Macris´s term. The only thing he did has to liquify the pensions and has the elders starving. Also he cut a lot of spending and now Buenos Aires is as expensive as New York. The poverty was 60% when he assumed, now must be 80%? Nobody likes him, he has a big propaganda apparatus but he won’t because his opponent was terrible.
Lol central bank was buying dollars every day and you say have no reserves and negatives 😂 come on!! You can do it better, please
Liquified the pensions? Elders starving? I thought that was past government where the pensions where going down and down thanks to bad calculations formula, and Milei make pensions going up to follow inflation finally and give more funds to them didn't happen on your mind right
Poverty increase? So was Milei fault that the property was hidden with social and unrealistic numbers, subsidies surely has nothing to do here I guess
Nobody likes him? Well seems that's wrong since on streets everyone say he is great, should believe you or should believe lots of people saying Milei is doing great, also seems the support since elections don't go down at all... On your mind surely is all fake rigth. Caputo seems doing a great job, I mean take down dollar look impossible but he did, and government debs titles look also doing well, explain how he is doing bad since the peso is appreciated a lot
So, what is your government sinecure? Sure sounds like you gotta protect that.
Ty
I don't Trust you.
So actually Ian, I disagree on your opinion that things are getting worse. With a steep decline in inflation and clear virtuous path forward for the first time in 20 years (except for 2 Macri years) Argentina and its people are better off today than 6 months ago and will be better every day still. People are now free, no longer slaves of a top down tyranny of the political class power dynamics. Most people work directly for a politician and don’t have a say in their fate. That is finally changing. Freedom will bring huge wealth. We will soon debate inequality which will be a day to celebrate from the equality of poverty as a policy for all, that Argentines have lived with for generations. Viva la libertad carajo! 🎉
Good for you Ian. I think that it's great when someone is willing to admit that they were wrong. We can only hope that Trump will learn this humbleness
Ha
Argentina is a mess going to diaaater. I live here. We are gping backwards.
the policies are correct... and if left uncheck the way things were going, Argentina was going to collapse completely... now the medicine is being put in place, and the fever always gets worse before things get better...
Ian ... 1:15 ... 😐 ... Yeeah - Im listening ...😐 ... and you KNOW ... 👁Not happy with you about that ... 😐
However ... YooIz ... Being a Big-Boy about it. Stated it, and it is on public record. I remember when you said that to The Kiev Independent reporter some six weeks ago. 👁DunLikeIt ... 😑 ... You said "None of this is Acceptable". I was thinking. 💭WhatduhFockduzThat Mean??? ... Ian?
If it IS Unacceptable - then it DuznHAPPEN! Because if Partition does occur - then it is Acceptable💭 SoYooIz DoubleTaukn Junior ... ... ... 😐
But Whatever on that foNow.
The point is ... YooIz'n'YooDuz ...Taking Ownership on this.
And We like that ... 🙂
Bravo Ian ... 👏👏👏
Argentina has 70% inflation Ian. So stated by none other that The Great - Joebee Won Joenobi - just last week.
Awwriiite - gedouttahir - Ian ... 😑
👼
Let this be a model for the rest of the West.
More Mises, Less Marx.
Christopher Walken
Ian, I respect your acceptance of being wrong. Gives you more credibility in my books. However, I have to say that for a few seconds, towards the end, you lightly touched upon wages and poverty. And so, I ask you respectfully, to expand on those comments as, what good are positive economic indicators if the people are worse off?