Jan Moganwa on Jacob Zuma, Julius Malema, ANC-EFF-MK coalition, Moonshot Pact, CITIZANS, Ramaphosa
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- Опубліковано 3 чер 2024
- In today’s episode, we are joined by CITIZANS National Leader, Jan Moganwa, as he shares insight into the political party dynamics & role players leading up to the elections & the various permutations that we could see arise from coalitions.
📚 Today’s Episode Features:
1. ANC at 65%
2. Moonshot Pact
3. ANC-EFF-MK coalition
4. CITIZANS
💡 Special Guest - Jan Moganwa: Former Chief Executive: Retail Banking at ABSA, Former CEO of Old Mutual Finance, Former Group Executive: Customer Engagement at African Bank, Former Chief Officer: Digital Services at Telkom, Former COO at MSG Africa and has held key roles at institutions like Standard Bank, Liberty Life and Barclays Group Limited. He is now the National Leader of CITIZANS, a platform aimed at encouraging more South Africans to participate in democracy.
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#SMWX #JuliusMalema #JacobZuma #CyrilRamaphosa
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_______
00:00:00 - Introduction
00:01:55 - CITIZANS
00:16:36 - ANC at 65%
00:23:05 - DA
00:27:33 - EFF
00:34:55 - MK
00:38:54 - coalitions
_______
Credits:
Director: Bongani Nkosi
Producer: Oratile Kekana
Production Manager: Noluthando Mkhize
DOP and Editor: Bongani Nkosi
2nd camera operator and assistant editor: Lesego Kgobe
Photographer: Bongani Nkosi
Social Media Manager: Oratile Kekana
About me: Dr Sizwe Mpofu-Walsh is an author, scholar and founder of the Sizwe Mpofu-Walsh Xperience (SMWX), a digital, youth-centred current affairs platform. He holds a DPhil in International Relations from the University of Oxford and is a Lecturer in International Relations at Wits.
best guest so far in 2024. he is very smart. he understands SA politics.
I'd say Mmusi Maimane was the best guest of 2024. This guy just had the luxury of not having a competitive dog in the fight. And his analysis, although somewhat enlightened, offered a fictional perspective of the current political landscape.
I say BOSA will shock South Africa this coming elections. Because they represent who South Africa is after 30 years of democracy. Watch the space
This guy is a great analyst, hat off to him!!!!
@@pleaseandthankyou4161
😂😂😂😂😂😅😅😅😅😅😅😅
😂😂😂😂😂😂😂
Big his talking facts big time
I like how composed this dude is … we need people like him who have found peace within in politics
Sizwe, please do justice for this unmatched episode and dissect it, much was misconstrued, please provide clarity for your viewer's, South Africa has a low post matric rate Sizwe, ask your guests to be sensitive to that fact👀this episode was sizzling, absolute firecracker of a guest, Shout out to you and Jan🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Excellent analysis from your guest. Love the way he explained the present concept of politics in South Africa. Childish politics... 👍👍👍
Mr. Moganwa is a brilliant mind and an excellent analyst. Big ups to him and his circle of people that helped bring about CITIZANS.
Thank you Sizwe! This gentleman is a true intellectual, you enjoy listening to his reasoning even where you think he is patently wrong.
Lol Kwere
Damn this analysis is funny in a brilliant way. Its well thought out and chronologically articulated. A beautifully built, multi layered argument. No sensationalism and regurgitating of thought. Original and provoking. LoL!
This has been the most informative interview I’ve had to listen to.
You can tell the people commenting who have either not watched, or not understood the analysis.
Brilliant Analysis, he got me thinking. Thank you SMWX
This is the most probable analysis and scenarios of the outcomes of the coming elections I have heard. I think the brother has explained well what he thinks will happen during and after the election. And he is making a lot of sense to me.
I love this analysis, something fresh and very probable. South Africa has competent and sharp brains ya'll 🇿🇦🇿🇦🇿🇦
We have to continue and don't let go of Anc bcz Eff and Mkp must unite let our beautiful country be back on track, we can explain to our children grandchildren all about apartaid genocide Nelson Mandela fought apartaid ext: Niel De Beer 2026 wants to be in government and in Parliament to raise his arrogant speech However his ideology is Anc cannot run the country for so many years or we must be prepared for a civil war against Israel coming to Western harbor to assist to fight the Animals according to Niel De Beer we are Animals subsequently he must be declared non public speech acknowledge the fact he went beyond his limits of criminology with Gayton MacKenzie he needs to be extradited to Europe 🇪🇺 back and all those came from 1994 the left to other countries bcz Nelson Mandela the hate Speech they will never stay with a communist government South Africa 🇿🇦 is a non racial country, European 🇪🇺 is so racist Omg WE have a lot on our plate to share with grand children and children God forbid 2026 ,his Desire to take the whole of Africa 🌍 like he say ,the country belongs to Afrikaners not Black Indians Muslims Black's, Coloureds animals will remain animals however his coming to Parliament to sort it out for once and for all , no more Black's and Indian's in Parliament this country it's taken already the resources extra......
The guy is delusional.
The only thing that keeps ANC in power is ignorance of certain demographic.
very interesting. the main reason i see the ANC + DA not go into a coalition is because the ANC knows that the DA is anti-corruption and about clean governance. it will be much easier for ANC cadres to work alongside MK to make sure we get the tenders
DREAMING IS NOT A SIN
😂😂😂
But this kind of dreaming needs to be added in the list of sins.
Which part of this is a dream?
🤣😂🤣😂🤣😂🤣😂 He is dreaming hard
65% nxa, how?
Who is going to give ANC this Numbers ??? Victims of Crime ? Loadshedding?, Unemployed, ? and Victims of Bad Services? This guy needs his chucked.
Rural votes 😢
The DA might be racists, but they at least deliver on what they promise.
I will never want a racist to rule even if he gives me free food for life. @@farieddebruyns338
I agree
He needs mental Dr to examine him
Great political analysis after a long time of draught. Thank you Sizwe.
Thina Sizwe...noooo I need my Phd after this😅, I have been looking for someone to dissect possible elections outcome. This is it, thank you sir. Jan Moganwa is very insightful.
I like the interpretations and analysis of this elections. For me EFF, MK ANC coalition of 2/3 majority is my wish
I love your analysis and I very happy with that they have done.
This is a profound analysis of how South Africa will unfold after this election
Today you have got a motivation speaker 🔊
Interesting conversation and very brilliant analysis.
Mr Moganwa's in depth Political analysis gives us a fresh new perspective than what we've been constantly hearing. Great conversation😊
Very interesting perspectives from a unique, yet convincing viewpoint. Great analysis.
Such a brilliant analysis. Ayeye..
True analysis on game of probability.
Wow what a great mind, this guy is well informed about our current state of our politics.
This was one sober analysis of the SA 🇿🇦 political landscape. Even though I don’t agree with some of the observations and views of the guest. But it’s one entertaining political analysis. Thank you
Thanks for watching!
I am yet to listen to such a perfectly minded guest.
So impressive,I kept saying wow seating alone worst part is that seeing the 65%,I prejudged the episode.😅
Either way, I am voting EFF this time around. According to Corruption Watch, 70% of corruption occurs in Tshwane, Cape Town and JHB. Would you like to know who is leading those metros? We have loadshedding, highest unemployment rate in the world, etc.
Phakama fighter, I am willing to take that risk this time around. If the EFF doesn't perform we will vote them out in 2029. We can't reward corrupt and incompetent parties.
Forget, there is no EFF that is going to win these elections, even the CIC conceded, thus he spoke about negotiating a position for Shibamvu in exchange for a ministerial position in Fanance. You can vote and Sello will donate your vote to the ANC, just as he once donated it to the DA in local elections.
Then you are an idiot...EFF is ONLY corrupt. Their politics is not about the people and is about 200 years behind modernity...do some reading. Votes like yours for the eff will ruin us
You know your power as a voter. People of Mzansi are supporters instead of voters due to ignorance and illiteracy
And who must EFF donate their vote to?🤔🤔🤔🤔 @@mthokozisilanga4497
You have other options Lungile, why not try a party that has NOT been in parliament before? OHM wants complete system change and we want to elect our leaders DIRECTLY. BOSA also wants a lot of changes in government. So does Rise Mzansi.
best analysis ever heard for this election. well balanced.big up ✊
This guy is extremely talented and brilliant indeed. I enjoyed his analysis that make lot of sense😅❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤
Very very sober analysis.
Wow, amazing interview
By 2034 with the ANC in charge we will be back in the Stone age
Unfortunately ANC is benefiting from nonexistence of opposition parties, those that are around are NOT really challenging the dominance of the ANC, hence ANC voters prefer to stay at home, instead of giving them their votes.
Yes. I hope he is wrong. I hope it does not go the way he says.
@@farieddebruyns338 When there was no apertite from the DA and ActionSA to come to an agreement in Ekhuruleni, and this led ANC and EFF running the metro. I also see the same going to national.
I'm with you here. I also think (hope/pray) that the new emerging parties will take a much bigger chunk out of the pie as in his calculations. Especially for OHM (Organic Humanity Movement) that wants complete SYSTEM CHANGE and we want to elect our leaders directly - much like Mmusi also wants with BOSA.
Civilization will be completely destroyed. Just like all these African countries did
Interesting analysis, it is actually fascinating...
Great interview with analysis based on existing evidence. Very refreshing.
His argument makes total sense (though I may not agree with every point). Just listen; thank you for this episode SMWX
This is the most realistic analyst in SA, everyone is talking of a coalitions as if its guaranteed the will be coalitions, when the reality exists that ANC might get over 51%.
True
What a brilliant guy, he analysis is mind blowing, what an episode 🙌🏽🙌🏽🙌🏽
I love the timing of this interview, South Africans have to be enlightened about real politic at play. ANC is the most democratic and honest organisation, No cult, no identity crisis, just issues of inytergrity and decision making. Thank you Sir. Vote ANC people to prevent creating another Venezuela on this country that our grand fathers fought for really hard and died in the process.
Democracy, at the core of which is majority rule, has its downside. The more crooks, populists, less thinkers you allow in the fold, the easier it becomes to destroy that system.
Msholozi's project of destroying the ANC did not start now with the MK Party, it started long before 2005. The yellow communists and the current crop of EFF leadership , knowingly or unknowingly helped to fast track the project. Some in the mob then were fully aware of the strategy and its end goal while most after being warned and blinded by greed continued with the plan never the less. Some in the mob thought they could tame Msholozi as they underestimated his intelligence based on his lack of formal education, a decision they regret up to date.
Once the mob had infiltrated the ANC, which was the strategy all along, it became difficult to save the organization. Even the old guards of the ANC, Sisulu, Govan Mbeki, and Madiba who once defended Msholozi did not see it coming. Only Thabo Mbeki and few others were able to read the signs but could not do much because they were in a minority and the mob who were in the majority in a democratic organization won.
In as much as there are many pros in a democratic dispensation, there are also systematic flaws.
The benefits of what Msholozi is doing now, whether we like or not, is pinpoint the flaws in our much gloriously celebrated democracy. He might be doing it trying to mock it but he is showing us that what we thought was a golden coin, is in fact a bronze coin wrapped in a golden paper foil.
Msholozi's continued testing of the strength of our legal system will benefit South Africa long after he has passed on, a feat no one else including the so called legal minds were ever going to undertake for the fear of being perceived as disrespecting Madiba and his legacy. In this regard, Msholozi is brave and must be commended for that. He, an uneducated man, with no primary education, is teaching lawyers, law professors, and lawmakers the law. This is an unusual talent and a huge doze of raw intelligence. You don't have to like the man but have to appreciate his bravery and intelligence. He was not supposed to be a president of the most industrialized, economically strong, and powerful country in Africa but he became one. Unfortunately for Msholozi, natural intelligence could only take him to a point because it is intended for survival. The lack of education caught up with him when he ascended the South African presidency because a certain level of understanding was required and he was found wanting. He could not lead the state the same way he led the ANC.
South Africa cannot exist at the moment without the ANC as a majority party though and it will be good for the country if the ANC gets between 42% and 47%. Anything outside this perimeter will not be good for the country.
A beautiful educational and very academic analysis by another politician.
What I don't understand with a lot of these analysts is the issue of the EFF succession. Individual like Dr Ndlozi, Marshall Dhlamini, the current chairlady and other ladies among others can do the job pretty easier too.
Indeed very smart guy facts
Smart guy..when you started i was thinking that you are crazy
Now it make sense
Democracy: government for the funders by the funders, ....
Exactly, that is why it is not a democracy, we are short changed, people build parties using us and claiming that they will fight for us, but in fact they are using us as collection plates from the funders that they need to regulate in the first place.
Funding by institutions, businesses and wealthy individuals is corruption
Preach!!
Doc mp. This man is a great analyst with a cool mind.
Love the analysis today!!!🔥🔥🔥🔥 Including the analogy of "twerking parties🤣🤣🤣🤣"
😂
Great analysis
I utterly enjoyed the discussion.
A part of me thinks Moganwa's perspective does not differ from Zungula's. Part of the reason why voters become indecisive is that we can't figure out why some political parties don't just merge into one larger party.
I think he is wrong about MK getting 15% though, but if they do...yoh!Kushubile! But enjoyed his analysis
Refreshing analysis
Interesting view
Nice one gentlemen! Mr Moganwa, you speak A LOT like OHM (Organic Humanity Movement) does and it is truly wonderful to hear!
Now if Sizwe will just invite Lauren from OHM to explain how she thinks SA will look in future? When Sizwe, will you speak to OHM?
What an analysis... Concise and fact/stats based
Powerful ending by Mr Mogawna(one day we will have to account to our children) these words haunt me on a daily basis, I cant leave this country the way we found it otherwise we will be useless parents to our seff-aware black kids...great interview Siz...
I almost didn’t watch till halfway through. Very thoughtful
Brilliant talk!!!!!!!
part about funders and moonshot pact was heavy, dope interview
soft spoken easy to listen to..great at connecting the dots
Please bring us Ntate Aubrey Mashiqhi... It will be interesting to hear his views at this juncture...
I enjoyed this session with every bit of my hair. I was sceptical at first because I did not know Jay but through listening I got all the wiser. I guess the old saying is true: "Never judge a book by it's cover". Thank you once again to all the SMWX for all the intellectual changing work you take. Ayeye....🙏
Thanks for watching!
Another great conversation, I'm glad you did this again. The Citizans shirt would fit me well 😊
Incredible point of view by far from your other guests, Sizwe. Jan paints an interesting point of view obviously debatable However his thinking process demonstrates that he has incredible
" head- room".
Fascinating views
Iya Dr this convesation is very good it blow my mind ❤❤❤
Yesss 👍❤
Anc 45
DA 14
EFF 20
MK 12
Others 8
But I thought EFF explained why they deployed manyi and Busisiwe to parliament because of their experience especially in the portfolios they hold. The people he’s referring to do not have that experience
😂😂😂nice one
Mr Moganwa has opened my eyes even wider and I agree with him now 100🔝
Sizwe you dribbled us with a headline. I had to delete my comment and rewrite😭🤣🤣🤣
Nami ngibizwe yilo 65% headline😂😂😂😂😂
I like Jan Moganwa...but like every other older, middle class person, I am disappointed in the tendency to bash Julius/EFF. It just shows that once people are above a certain threshold of a comfortable living, they will quickly betray any effort to uplift the broader black interest. Whether his sentiments are true or not, at this point there's great momentum to push for change and anyone who acts against that, takes the same crown of shame as Blaise Compaore, Joseph Arthur Ankrah or Mobuto Sese Seko. Hard to watch the rest of the episode
Lucid. Proper analysis. Unlike many armchair analysts who don't go beyond a newspaper headline
Great analysis from Mr Moganwa very soundful and profound. Top Notch ❤🎉
Dankie Sompisi uyinqwele yethu
Interesting take from Mr Moganwa... I'm like hmmmmm🤔.. Our democracy is so mercy and complicated and I don't think this system is working for us.😢
Thanks!
Thank you!
The man gave us a lot, eye opening how realistic this merger of ANC, EFF, MKP and maybe IFP could render the DA opposition till Jesus returns. Only the childishness of our politics is keeping this door closed!
ANC 65% pass rate blows me away as a prediction 😂😂😂😂😅
INTERESTING analysis
Very refreshing opinions. I like!
Doc Sizwe and Guest. I'm home in Malawi. Thank for the Convo. On EFF remember the past 'government by any means necessary' What if MK becomes the military forces for the aggressive space and time if the status is... 'losing 2024, May 29 contests'
Brilliant, brilliant conversations and points made. I agree with what he said and this is why I will be voting the way I will be voting.
You got that one right
SMWX back with another 🔥 one - Ayeye! 🙌🏾
But maan thanks guys for bringing this gentleman back. He always has thought provoking perspectives and I appreciate that he doesn't necessarily follow the traditional views.
Very insightful interview.
Much appreciation to you Sizwe and the SMWX team for the remarkable work you guys do through this platform. This to me is a more advanced learning program - this is exactly what us South Africans need! Big ups guys, keep educating us - we love it! 🙏🏾
Good luck to 65% as he claim.
Did you listen though?
@@zenaviv He didn't
@@siphosethukitana1421 Funny how people can listen to an hour long dialogue, and at the end comment with conviction emptiness.
Thought provoking.
Great conversation. Great to see and listen to people who are able to soberly take out the emotions, sentimentality and blind support from our body politics and engage in razor sharp analysis of our politics. I agree that we are still far from maturing as a people and democracy. Jan has correctly articulated our political space in a way better than the political analysts do. I guess he was able to articulate these views from an objective stance. Objectivity is what we need if we are to change the current political landscape. If what he says comes true, then we'll be in serious trouble because all those involved are self-serving with no interest of South Africa at heart. It will be an open door for State Capture 2 with dire consequences than the first.
Yes, Jacob you have said it very well!
Citizans really impressed me when I 1st heard about them about 2 months ago. At that stage they were not taking part in the elections, but I am delighted that they will now! And they speak very much the same language as OHM - Organic Humanity Movement and they can take the country very far into the future lobbying together for the much needed SYSTEM CHANGE.
I doubt that EFF, MK and like minded parties will get 30% of national votes. Jan is brilliant but I think he is overeating the impact of MK. I doubt if MK will get 15% of the KZN provincial votes. I think the maximum they could gather in KZN is 10% and nationally 5%. I think the maximum the RET configuration could get is 20% of the national vote. I think that the ANC will get between 40% and 48% giving them the power to choose a dance partner or partners that could be made of smaller parties.
If this happens, then there will be no need for Ramaphosa to leave and it will signal the beginning of implementation of tough measures initiated by the appointment of capable deployment.
If this happens, the big losers will be the RET group. Cyril will have nothing to lose and will be trying to leave a good lasting memory of his two term presidency. Ramaphosa's leaving office will only happen if the ANC falls below 40% which I find unlikely.
Any coalition government at national level without Ramaphosa in the mix will be disastrous for South Africa not because he is a good leader but simply because he is a reasonable political leader that keeps the wolves and hyenas away from devouring the little that is left of South Africa. In the absence of that scenario we should prepare for the worst-case.
I do not support the ANC but wish that they get 40 to 45%.
South Africa is not ready to chuck away the ANC completely. It has to be phased out gradually starting this year, 2024 and can then be removed in 2034 depending on the maturity of our body politic.
Those who want to influence and take over then must start preparing themselves now. Currently there is no opposition political party with the interest of all South Africans at heart ready to govern.
This gues is, by far, the best I've ever listened to on this show, very mch on point 👏 👏 👏
Brilliant!
Good analysis
Yes true ANC MUST CONTINUE WITH EFF AND MKP❤❤❤
It is a recipe for disaster, a continuation of what is currently happening. MK is ANC and EFF is their child 😂😂
Great interview
Wow the grant proposal got me rolling, great concept ❤
I admire Sizwes professionalism and composure 😂, they way he just sat there knowing very well that this man is talking absolute hogwash about anc dipping below 30%
What interview were listening to? Never at any point said ANC will dip below 30%.... You need to clean the hogwash in your ears.
Interesting
Wow! Ayeye!
Thanx God! l am not the only one who blv anc will surprise a lot of people bcz my prediction ar anc will get more than 57%🤞
EFF JOIN ANC MKP SLSO BROTHER'S leave the difference's aside come on board 🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉
Jan makes a good point re self-interest. The wonderful thing about the free market system is that it turns self-interest or greed into service for the benefit of the public.
Great show!
Please invite Rev. KENETH MESHOE! 🙏🏾🙏🏾
What will that old lunatic come here to say?
Ayeye!