An 8-Card Modern PSA Order With Predictions & Financial Breakdown
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- Опубліковано 11 жов 2024
- BASEBALL CARD COLLECTOR INVESTOR DEALER (in that order)
Chris Sewall here.
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baseball cards, football cards, basketball cards, hockey cards, soccer cards, t206 Honus Wagner, 1952 topps mickey mantle, 1948 Leaf Jackie Robinson, 1933 goudey babe ruth, 1989 upper deck Ken Griffey Jr, 1993 SP Derek Jeter, 1981 Topps Joe Montana, 2017 Patrick Mahomes, 1996 Topps Chrome refractor Kobe Bryant, 1986 fleer michael jordan RC, 2003 exquisite, 2003 topps chrome gold refractor LeBron James, 2000 Tom Brady, 2017 Patrick Mahomes, Mike Trout, Steph Curry, Lionel Messi, National Treasures, 2012 panini prizm, silver prizm, panini flawless, ebay, PSA, Beckett, BGS, SGC, BVG, GEM MINT 10, PRISTINE 10, HGA, CSG, GMA, Goldin auction, Heritage auction, Pwcc, probstein123, COMC, starstock, card ladder, bowman chrome xfractor, Rookie card, rookie patch autograph, RPA, donruss optic holo
I would love to see an actual financial recap 3-6 months from now. Many times I make mental notes of my expectations for selling a card/collection and the price I expect. Usually when I cirlcle back months later and analyze the actual numbers it is less than expected 😂
On the note about negative PSA comments, the issue with PSA for me is the puzzlers like the Ripken reveal you showed in the video. I have had a puzzler with SGC, but not nearly to the level of PSA. They just seem too inconsistent right now in applying their grading standards, which to me are good.
This is the big problem... You have the current industry standard with wildly inconsistent grades and a shifting grading scale where a shift in a grade by 1 creates huge swings in price ... Makes you feel like you're buying the holder rather than the card inside
If we feel like we can't tell why a card got a grade then why is PSA trusted at all?
5 is a puzzler to me too. When I had it I would have have guessed 8. No noticable creases like many of those 2000s GU have. It looked pretty clean. I'm glad to hear it's staying in your PC though. Crack it and send to SGC. The eye appeal is great.
PSA is losing credibility because there are now at least a dozen videos on this very website featuring someone breaking open a PSA 5 or 6 and getting a PSA 8 or 9 on resubmission. Their scoring system is just made up out of thin air, and entirely based on how the employee grading your cards feels that day. The reason they don't tell you why the card got the score it did is because they have absolutely no idea. Bill got in an argument with his wife this morning, so sorry that $3,000 card is now actually gonna be an $80 PSA 7. If you want to spend a bunch of time and money resubmitting it maybe you'll catch Brad on one of those mornings where he caught all the green lights and suddenly that same card will be worth $2,900 more.
Ripken is a legend. Always nice to see his cards preserved.
I know it not possible but what an all-time classy thing to do if Ripken would have sat out the next day he tied Lou Gehrig’s record!
You’re typically spot on and this case no different. Haters are gonna hate. Grading numbers and secondary market sales data show the reality of PSA.
Seems like net profit is moving to be equal too
or less than grading fees.
PSA is now a 50% partner in profits,
then Uncle Sam gets 35% of your half.
You did 92% of the work.
I have only been back in the hobby for about a year now. When I sent my first order it was roughly 20 cards. There were about 10 from my childhood. Two were returned ungraded as being “mc”- too small. When I compare them to other cards I bought I cannot see any difference. The other ten were Greg Morris purchased NM-Mt or better. Two got 8’s, 6 got 7’s and two got 6’s. From what I have watched Greg Morris has a great reputation with his anticipated grades. I have watched a lot of grading videos and see a random 2 grade lower than expected in almost every video. Is there some policy PSA implemented that we do not know about where the graders get dinged for giving too high grades? I think this is where some of the PSA negativity comes from.
Additional note: the ones I bought in my childhood were pack pulled - straight from Topps
@@GoobastankJudging by the kind of grades you received I wonder if the grader decided to save you some money. But if you know for sure they were pack pulled and absolutely want them graded and slabbed I would try again.
"I genuinely expect 1 or 2 puzzlers in a PSA order" this is why people don't like them.
Exactly
90% of people use them still.
@arynnelson371 i get it doesnt mean they are consistent
It doesn't seem to affect their market share though 🤷🏻♂️
@@MichaelIp they are so recognized that they can almost do anything and get away with it
You Scooby-Dood that one mystery though, the altered 5 from a screw down case
PSA is the US Steel of grading companies and they seem to be ok with affecting changes that are antithetical to the idea of grading being a consistent and reliable way to agree on the condition of cards... They are pretty clearly changing their grading standards, becoming stricter in just the last 2 years or so... add to that the fact that they're the defacto standard for obtaining the best retail price and you've got a solid case for resentment from frustrated collectors and flippers... Thanks as always for the vid!
100% Agree!
less higher grades in the pop count helps to support card prices
which in turn benefits flippers and collectors who are concerned
with price or value of the items.
less 10's is more $$
which in turn helps support pricing on lower grade.
If a PSA 10 of xx is $1000, the 9 might be $150-200,
if that xx card is high pop count for 10's it might only be worth $200,
and the 9 is now worth $25-30
@@theboringchannel2027 Grades determine price to a significant extent but grades are simply a measure of the condition of the card... Put another way: Price for graded cards, since they operate in a market, will always fluctuate, but grades for the cards should be a constant, consistent set of standards and evaluations and they aren't... PSA took the opportunity during the recent hobby boom in price and participation to ratchet up prices for grading and to tighten their standards...
imo, a good deal of lower grades come from people not knowing how to properly look over their cards...they just put them in penny sleeves, Card Savers and ship them off...they don't want to spend a couple minutes with each card, looking closely at corners (front and back), looking at the surfaces under strong lighting and/or magnification, etc...most people "haven't got the time", so hence they overlook things and complain when cards come back with lower grades than they anticipated
@@gradedcards5516 Agree, that is a fact of being a newbie to grading, but if you keep at it your grading eye improves...
An SGC 10, for example, sells less than a PSA 10 - but at what point does it make more sense to not use PSA if you're not likely to get the 10 you were expecting? Why not use a different grader, get your 9 or 10, and sell it...assuming their 9 or 10 sells more than a PSA 8 or some curveball low grade you're not expecting
And when you include the cost difference to grade it goes in further in favor of not using psa.
If your not going with a PSA slab then just use a grading company that you prefer. For me it’s TAG. Nice sleeves, absolute transparency and a beautiful slab and a great price with
Thanks for sharing Chris. I like the reveal videos. I would love to see a video showing the long term hold box you are sticking the Aaron Donald cards in….
These are my favorite vids, Chris! Could you ever do one explaining how you find which cards TO grade. I noticed certain prisms, 94 SPs etc, metal cards can get huge value increases if they get 10s.
Appreciate the transparency with expected grades versus the actual outcome. Great video as always man!
I always like your videos and insight. There is a fairly new grading company that I use. TGA in NH is doing great things. Excellent slabs and banners. PSA is having some issues as we all know. Beckett has become an assembly line.
I would like to see a single video that shows the complete life cycle ending with a spreadsheet finish for actuals.
The first part of the video shows you packing the order and estimating the grades (potentially also estimating what additional profit you hope to make over selling them raw). I don't think that you can say how much you paid for each card because you probably don't know, but this would be a bonus if you could.
The second part of the video shows you revealing the grades and your revised estimate of the profit that you would make based on the actual grades
The third part of the video shows the breakdown of what you actually received less fees and how you sold each one. You would also be able to advise how long it took you from reviewing the raw cards to selling all the cards.
Something like this would likely be more of a one-off but it would be interesting. For the purposes of this video, it would only be cards that you wish to sell immediately after grading.
It’s interesting how different the 2 Aaron Donald signatures look. Hmm, is it possible he tried signing a streak with his opposite hand, his foot or handed the sharpie to someone else??? Ha
My personal PSA experience has been good. Probably have subbed 200 ish cards at this point. I screen my cards very closely before sending unless its an obvious low grade Vintage card. Everything came back as expected. No real head scratchers...yet. im fairly confident in them overall. Obviously not everyone has the same experience but there is a reason why most people use them. You dont hear from the happy people as often as the unhappy unfortunately
It seems like most PSA haters have never subbed with them at all. Maybe they suspect their favorite cards won’t get premium grades so they skip straight to complaining about PSA.
@@GFTCNJ I also notice that too many people think there card is a 10 when clearly not even for mid grades you have to be realistic.
While I agree to a point, as you can see from Chris's videos ( someone who's been in the business a long time) confidence means very little
Most people still send to PSA because if they get lucky with a decent grader, the resale value is by far the best. It’s their pop control and moody graders that piss everyone off.
I just feel you have to much experience with cardboard to have any, "puzzlers". Simply put--the negative comments, (imo) are the result of watching endless, 'cracked a PSA 5 and resubmitted and got a 10' videos.
PSA is the best. SGC is good also. Some people send in cards and expect 10s and always blame the grading company for not agreeing with them.
As always, thank you for the submission break-down. 👍
What per cent of your sales are done through Ebay (or a site that charges commission) v. done in private (or no commission)?
The more sales you can do away from Ebay and the like, the better for your bottom line (obviously).
I rarely use ebay for singles anymore. I use ebay for lots.
Only things I hate about PSA is the inconsistency and the up-charge. Its no secret that their inconsistency is a bit out of hand, and we all hate the up-charge. It shouldnt matter how much our card is worth, they should examine the card the same way if its a 1k card or a 5 dollar card. PSA wanting a piece of the pie just shows how greedy they are. Other then these two things, I dont have a problem with PSA. Case and Point, your Ripken that got a PSA 5........HTF did that get a 5??
A couple things to hate you forgot - their base price is almost double sgc and they take 8 times as long to return your cards
@gabriels1163 not to mention any card 2000 or newer, has no Max value 😊
I have a high world ranked PSA Pete Alonso collection, all in the top 3 on the registry. Now I am doing ALL Petes bowman paper rainbows, and this limits my pool of candidates, and for 9+, I am forced to do crack-outs and resubs. Personally I find the inconsistency nauseating. Great videos man.
And that right there is why psa still commands the most. The set registry and consistency in labels. Once sgc gets their registry running full force, I think that'll change somewhat
I think it’s fair to say we respect your estimates when it’s comes to grading and the hate for PSA is deserved.
PSA unfortunately have no clue how to grade Die-Cuts, Thick Cards or Certain "Lumpy" cards.
Hey! Any update to your one video where you said you was going to buy some baseball cards starting Nov and try selling them right around training camp.
I will be posting the next update video for that this Saturday
5:30 those autographs dont even look near the same. which one is the forgery?
I have thought about buying psa 6 cards and resubmitting them for maybe better grades.
You can never really know value added until the card is sold
The reason people are disatisfied with PSA is because they are down grading perfect cards in order to keep the top pop counts low. This in turn keeps people submitting hoping to get the elusive 10 that they’re only going to give to their “preferred “clients. People except it because it is still more profitable to grade with them than to not….but this doesn’t mean it still isn’t rigged. You may see a big swing in attitude about them once the FBI get finished looking into their business practices….a warning to the wise!
hahahahahahaha
Personally have had no issue with PSA this year. 85% gem rate submitting almost exclusively ultra modern baseball 🤷♂️
I’m kind of new in trying to make a card collection. When you send something in to have graded and you think is a 9 or 10 . And it comes back a 5 don’t you loose money on that card
Of course, that is openly expressed in the financial part, and it explains the frustration.
Yes, a low grade will often not cover the grading fee
Just a few years ago, all those 8’s and 9’s would have been 9’s or 10’s. They have made an obvious, concerted, effort to grade more strictly. Does that mean they are a scam or hate their customers? I don’t know about that, but they definitely are manipulating the market, either passively or purposefully. Unfortunately, the market still favors PSA graded cards for whatever reason, so they continue to thrive, for now.
That is so true about graded cards from now to yesteryear. So why don't resale prices reflect an 8 being a 9 or a 9 being a 10? People just see the grade and want the card cheap
Not taking in the actual condition of the card. Or knowing how PSA has been grading. I'm now selling most of my stuff raw. Not making the bigger money by getting lucky once in awhile with PSA, but letting my customer take the risk. I still send some into SGC, but they don't get near the return $$. Thanks for letting me rant.
We put up with PSA grading inconsistencies because the value of the cards is way more than SGC and Beckett. 10's are almost impossible unless you pull a pack perfect card and protect it immediately. SGC gives out 10"s like candy at Halloween. Thanks for the video Chris.
Actually the probability of getting a 10 from sgc is lower than getting a 10 from psa. This has been shown to be true many times
I personally won’t grade with PSA. I’d buy a PSA slab for a discount or if it the card was rare enough. In those situations, I’d probably cross grade or crack and send to SGC.
Hi Chris, great video. Always appreciate these video's and I learn from watching these.
👋Long-time viewer of the channel. While I've never graded a card myself, I've been part of the hobby for about 15 years; something that's always confused me though is your opinion of PSA and grading in general. In previous videos. you've mentioned that you don't look at cards under a microscope or do much in-terms of "prepping" (not altering, FWIW). If you can agree that looking over a card for defects is subjective, then how you can ever be frustrated at PSA for grades you don't feel are accurate? At the end of the day, it's a human giving you their opinion - no matter who they represent as a whole. Your examples of cracking and resending a card in that comes back a different grade is a perfect example of that. Why not take the human aspect out of the equation and use a service like AGS that uses computers to grade? To me the answer seems clear - it's a calculated risk vs reward; and the sentiment of making the most money easily takes over a subjective assessment of the entire process in general. If you're not going to take the variability out of the equation, then it doesn't make a lot of sense to me to get frustrated when a grade isn't what you expect.
This! Kind of. Input output and AI on computers/digital grading
Correct. It is, just an opinion. When you pay for someone else's opinion, you might not always agree and like the result. Win some. Lose some.
The biggest reason is those companies that use computers ( not AI actually yet) is their resale value. They still aren't well respected and till that changes, anyone who sells even partly won't use them. Not to mention till AI is actually being used, many quirks in certain sets would be incorrectly weighed. Take the 79-80 opeechee Gretzky for example. That set was cut with a wire making that edge perfect impossible. Computers would grade edges really low across the board on that set
PSA saved my life in Nam
Exactly why PSA is getting bad wraps… how your grading went… years ago you were dead on the grading guesses. Where these days, I feel like their purposely keeping the pops down 🤦🏽♂️ and controlling the market in ways
Aaron Donald has had another fantastic season. The issue is that there seems to be some fatigue when it comes to hyping his play. It is just sort of expected that he will be all-world.
Why do I feel like I’m the only idiot that only buys and doesn’t sell.
The issue I have with PSA is because the company is at the top of grading, you can clearly see what cards are questionable gem 10's and which are not. Also PSA, surpress the market as a collector. If you decide to sell your card, the grade really doesn't add value if its a 7 or 8, its a waste. Lastly, if a player is hot, if you don't use the express, your card will definitely lose value becsuse of how long it takes for it tobe graded. PSA is still number one in grading, but you have to know what cards you send in.
guess it is like a stock then...you have to anticipate when the stock is going to go up -- you can't buy it after it has gone up a ton...same with cards -- you have to anticipate when a player is going to get better or become a household name...can't be late to the party with stocks or sports cards
Do you recommend getting the dual grade for card/auto?
I generally do not on pack-pulled autos
Greatt video and great cards!!
For all you people getting puzzlers.. Are you looking at the card closely under magnification and blue light or just your naked eye then saying puzzled?? Cause I look at my cards closely and have never got one puzzler ever! You will be surprised what shows up under a loupe that is invisible to the naked eye. Please stop crying that your card didn’t mint cause it looks fine to your naked eye.
Is PSA declared value before grading or after grading? If they grade it lower than expected, that considerably changes the value.
Its the value after its been graded, but they are very lenient
Wondering your thoughts on TAG for long term investments ??? You really can't beat science. I am beginning to think people just send to PSA to try and sneak by an imperfect card. Anyways, thanks for your show.
Tag or any of the smaller companies (dsg, fcg, hga etc) dont have very good prospects. There has been dozens of grading companies over the years and only 3 have succeeded long term so far. If the company is able to get enough market share where they are considered to be among the top companies then the value will go up. I think Tag, HGA and DSG have the biggest chances of being successful from among the small companies.
I am rooting for TAG as I like the approach and would love to see more options. But I have seen many many grading companies come and go over the years so I am not jumping on board until I see a little more
@@collectorinvestordealer As you should. There are, plenty of grading companies, that tried and failed. So many companies wanted to be the next PSA. The next SGC. The next Becket..until they aren't. It could make sense for, one of the big name companies, to just outright buy TAG, but we'll see what happens
Till tag can actually grade the majority of cards it won't be taken remotely serious. They point accept a very small window of cards right now. Also sometimes I cards needs that human subjectivity. I'd have to see what grades tag would give any 79-80 o pee chee hockey cards with that wire cut border.
Nice little order! lol
I did poorly with my last psa submission, a few cards that should be a 10 came back 6-7 which makes no sense.
I don’t understand why they want a declared value and up charge. Im not paying PSA to value my cards, Im paying for an accurate grade. Thats why I hate PSA
you're using PSA, but hate them? Got it...
That you "expect one or two puzzlers in every order" shows why psa is getting hate. Because its like that with everyone not just you. When 10%+ of cards are coming back graded wildly wrong why would you expect people to have good feelings about that company. If I messed up more than 1% of the time at my job we would be out of business.
Your Ripken received only a 5 because the grader got into a fight with his girlfriend right before he graded it..
Pop control on the Brady
will you hold the Burrow until next year?
If you're not pulling high grades now, you're running a solid risk of not even covering the grading fees for quite a bit of nice stuff. Put otherwise, lol.. rich kid (old dorky guys) problems
I wonder if Chris looks at his cards under a magnifier
psa doesnt, so why should he?
That would avoid those random 5’s or 6’s or at least I think they would
need to get you to 100k chris time to challenge logan paul to that UFC style fight.
I think your first grade reveal is a perfect example of why people are taking issue with PSA. You definitely know what you are talking about when it comes to card conditions. Yet PSA gave you a 5 on a card you thought would be an 8 or 9. This is why I stopped buying raw cards and sending them to PSA. They are to unpredictable at this point. Probably because they have too many graders with wildly different opinions on what a card should be graded.
Did you watch the latest chasing cardboard episode Chris
I have not seen it yet
@@collectorinvestordealer definitely check it out it’s awesome
Definitely a loud minority but they do have their issues but no competition that can make them make any big changes.
For the Ripken 5, the fact the only other one graded got a 6 seems to suggest there is a general issue that might affect that card.
I usually get that one head scratcher as well but when I reexamine or crack out it almost always is a surface indentation, depression or other surface issues.
Fun order and can’t wait to see more!
SGC and Beckett are, competition to PSA.
@@ACD1994 SGC is trying but until they make a dent in submissions unfortunately no one is pushing any change that PSA has to make.
November numbers:
1. PSA - 1.13 million graded
2. CGC - 165 thousand
3. SGC - 121 thousand
4. BGS - 60 thousand
So PSA had 77% of the cards graded in November.
@RawGradeFlip and u would imagine that included non sports where cgc has a better foothold, with sgc now doing 9 bucks a card in that category, that should start changing soon
@@RawGradeFlip Yes. Grading more than SGC and others, but doesn't necessarily make them the best. Just popular. I could see SGC and CGC eating away at some of those submissions though for sure.
It's always the loud minority
My guess is that the PSA’s rapid capacity scaling brought in a lot of new graders with varying qualifications. Graders I’ve spoken with say there isn’t a ton of standardization on the grading scale so it results in lots of variance/little consistency in grading standards
For me, I’m seeing a disconcerting amount of variance in things like corner damage size and the grades they equate to. I’ve seen 10s and 8s overlap in surface damage size on corner defects
Good luck
We have a winner!
I dont understand, why sell the Burrow card now while he is hurt and prices are down? why even consider selling it now? His best years are a head of him clearly holding this until a more favorable time to sell the card would clearly be recommened.
Sometimes you just have to cut losses. No guarantee, Burrow will ever make it back to the Super Bowl, or win an MVP anyway.
@@ACD1994 however its not Unlikely he wont have a really stellar season which would see the card go up in value. Its very reasonable to expect that from that particular player at that position. Their is a much bigger upside to this player for this card.
❤PSA
People complain but do nothing about it because $$$. PSA graded 1.13 million cards last month while the next three grading companies did 340,000 combined. Comment sectioms are seemingly always critical.and negative and PSA don't care. Don't like the grade? Crack and try again folks! More $$$.
gj chris
1 psa 10 on a card where it doesnt effect value much, big shocker big psa scam
psa protecting pop population. last order sent in good looking montana rookie came back slabbed with a crease. i have picturs of this card before sent, no crease. contacted psa ,been 6 months no response. seems to me the lowest valued cards get the higher grades. sent about 200 cards this year maybe 25% 9 or 10. desmond ridder rookie patch auto 7 a 7! good looking card . buttheads
Believing PSA to be a scam and poorly run while still utilizing their services can both hold true. They are an abusive relationship that folks can't shake.
The reason for all the negative PSA comments is your videos all seem to disappoint with their grades for no good reason! Seems like they arbitrarily grade cards.
First? 🥇
I think TJ Watt is gonna be a hall of famer for sure and have more value than Aaron Donald for long term value. Anyone else agree
There's the potential for that, yes. I think it may also depend on, TJ Watt post career, and if he keeps himself relevant
PSA sucks. Grading is a joke. Buy the card and stop msking tgese losers richer. It guys like you who make them thrive, by trying to mak more money. Authenticication as all these companys are good for! Anytime that you can send tge exact same card in and get a different grade each times speaks volumes
There are a lot of vocal and bitter SGC fans who can’t get over the fact that the hobby prefers PSA.
There are a lot of deluded psa fans who cant face reality that their grader is incompetent.
Your start is why people are hating on PSA...you are "pretty experienced" when it comes to grading, yet you get 2 baffling grades to start....there is your answer.