Experts talk drones in Ukraine
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- Опубліковано 27 кві 2024
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Mike hosts Dr. Stacie Pettyjohn to discuss her new report:
Evolution Not Revolution, Drone Warfare in Russia’s 2022 Invasion of Ukraine
Stacie is a Senior Fellow and Director of the Defense Program at the Center for a New American Security (CNAS). Her expertise includes defense strategy, posture, force planning, the defense budget, airpower, and wargaming. Her current projects focus on the effect of drones on warfare, munitions stockpiles, and nuclear deterrence in a multipolar world.
We talked about drone tech, adaption since the 2022 invasion, innovation on both sides of the conflict, and despite all of that-what critical drone technology is still notably absent on the battlefield.
This isn’t just about air drones…we chat drone boats too!
For those interested in #military #technology #drones #warfare #russia #ukraine #war #nationalsecurity #defense #nationaldefense
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• Mike Benitez (LinkedIn) / mike-benitez
• Dr. Stacy Pettyjohn (LinkedIn) / stacie-pettyjohn-bb156126
• CNAS www.cnas.org/people/stacie-pe...
• Drone report www.cnas.org/publications/rep...
• Girl Security www.girlsecurity.org/
• AI report academic.oup.com/isq/article-...
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Show Notes
(00:41) Intro
(03:28) drone report
(06:59) 4 bins of drones
(08:25) drone changes during the war
(10:28) Turkish TB-2 drones
(12:02) drones for air superiority?
(13:51) drone dogfighting
(14:46) the “air littoral”
(16:25) coordination altitudes
(18:57) evolution in the war
(21:16) 50,000 drones per month?
(23:37) drones vs. artillery
(26:32) wargaming
(27:26) battlefield innovations
(29:26) why not a revolution?
(31:18) where’s the AI?
(35:27) drone boats
(39:10) new largest air drones
(41:48) buying drones for war
(44:36) drones as cruise missiles
(45:41) outro - Розваги
Dr. Pettyjohn and colleagues ROCK! She had me at "I'm a wargamer!" But her intelligence and depth of understanding of the issues solidified that for me. More of CNAS please!
Thanks! We have think tank topics on our 2024 hitlist
I would add that as a former FAC/JTAC, I agree that uav's probably aren't going to replace manned aerial supremacy missions (extension/augmentation is a completely different argument) anytime soon. However I can perhaps see that CAS may be directly impacted and perhaps even replaced by uav's. Especially given the fast mover communities dogged resistance to the 'Hog and continued attempts to rid the AF of its "scourge." The FLOT/FEBA may have a new champion? Perhaps another show topic?
@@TheMergeMediaPosting this comment from different video because I didn't see that I wasn't on your most recent episode and want to see the channel grow.
I think you really need to create a 'The Merge Clips" channel or offer small, interesting segments (3-10 minutes) as gets done with other podcasts like Lex and such. People are not going to take the plunge on an hour long video if they aren't familiar and viewers like me often can't dedicate that much time, even though I know I'll enjoy it. Yes, I could just pause and come back, but that takes more clicks and people are notorious for doing whatever they can to avoid more clicks to do something.
I think you're mainly going to only get views from people that get led to the channel from direct channel recommendations from other UA-camrs. If almost everything you produce is an hour, you will only get a very small number of views from people who get recommended the show by the algorithm. If you posted short segments and clips you would at least get a higher percentage of UA-cam recommendations turning into views, even for people that already watch some videos. It's not just the hosts that people can feel unsure about, it's every different guest. If you have clips for each guest you'll allow people to get a feel for whether they want to watch the whole episode. If you feel like you're cutting to much it just remember that if you leave a non offensive (over-the-top) cliffhanger in the clip people will want to know how it ends.
Again, I'm not talking about shorts either, I think 3-10 minute segments or occasionally up to 15 minutes. The other popular shows do a ton of short segments, so it seems like it works and is important. Putting out at least two or three segments for every guest and episode seems like a decent goal. Plus, having more regular posted videos and getting more views helps get the algorithm's attention and you might get more recommendations. I know that's a ton of extra work, but that's my uneducated, inexperienced feeling about growing the channel and podcast, at least on UA-cam.
Edit: You have a lot of old episodes that you can mine for clips as well. You have to promote the new videos with clips, but you can sprinkle in videos from segments of old episodes as well.
Well hopefully UA-cam doesn't block me because I've made this comment a few times now. I just think it would help and that I'd enjoy it as well. I'll stop now. I just wanted to encourage this as much as possible.
She?🤔🤔
Fantastic interview and topic. Dr. Pettyjohn is well-informed and well-spoken.
Much appreciated Mike, always love it when you do shows about us here. Just one thing as an FYI, at 38:30 you say, "the most recent drone boat I saw was called the Sea Baby, which was a really terrible name, because it was big". I beg to differ, the name is great, it comes from the surname of the Chief of the SBU (the renamed KGB, it's like your CIA & FBI combined)) Vasyl Malyuk - Malyuk literally means "Baby". He is the one who devised these drones. They're his brainchild (pun intended!) So it's a cool name when put into context!
I had no idea! Ok it's a great name!!
Sbu isn’t the renamed kgb , they totally different as one is a secret force and the other didn’t give a monkeys to hide themselves. Tell me where sbu are making Russians grass on each other in mass ? That’s what the kgb did ! What did putin say about kgb “ that’s not for us no more as it’s unproductive to the people and country “ . Finally how is Ukraine going to use sea drones when Russia takes Odesa ?
Girl power 😮 , great interveiw thanks bro
Mike, Stacie... Great interview. It was fascinating. Hope there will be a follow up. 👍🏻
Dr.. Pettyjohn touched a little bit on it towards the end and I don't know if it's expanded on in the report but for Ukraine and even US/NATO, as we saw with the Iran/Israel skirmish, there's the cost imbalance of having to defend against $20,000 drones with million dollar missiles .
I think that the cost analysis while important is often times misunderstood. You have to also factor in the entire industrial base, the entire budget of the military, and the GDP/economic power of a particular country. When you factor those end becomes clear that the shot to cost exchange ratiois still pretty manageable
@@mharley3791: Unfortunately against an enemy like Russia, that goes to hell again when you factor in the time of production.
They have achieved a state where they can replace most lost equipment in months, while NATO equipment can take years.
Great guest and great job.
Agreed. She is pretty fast alright. There is a military history and analysis in my family so this get will a few views from me. It was an excellent video.
Great topic and great interview. Dr, Pettyjohn is definitely on the top of her game. More of this.
The most important takeaway is that she used the word "kludged" correctly. Like "RCH" it's an important technical term that shouldn't be allowed to die out.
Great interview. So much information presented.
Thank you for the discussion. Very informative and CNAS is another resource to kero up to date on.
US should have kept developing the perdix micro drone swarm & LOCUST. They would be a great addition for the USN.
Underestimated before and underestimating now.
Very underrated video. Like from me
Great material and insight. Thanks and regards.
This is a great talk. Thank you
By the way I am aware of a proven system that is capable of a strike package in excess of 3,000 craft. Unfortunately it is not American.
The radio system does not interfere and preprogramed presets control a loss of signal.
This is a cost effective system that is not militarized. Technology upgrades would overcome any vulnerabilities however the concept is commercially proven.
The UK MOD says OSINT now provides 95% of what only their professional intelligence agencies could. So, you can get an incredibly accurate picture on most topics without access to classified info.
excellent
Nothing wrong with "littoral" meaning close to land.
how heavy (ballpark) are IR targeting systems that make a targeting "basket" for munitions? curious as to how small and thus cheap these systems could be in a very beneficial role.
They're on ave 50,000 lbs, the size of a house and cost just a roll of pennies. 👍
US has task force 59
What is her view on the U.S. multiple independent swarm drones systems that target individual solders. Very small impossible to stop.
WOW!
Not true the moscow was sank by a boat drone
They shot also missiles
I had a longer response but I deleted it once I realized other listeners made similar comments.
I'm not too chuffed with this one. Not only does she not seem to be taking the advent of short-range drones on the battlefield as seriously as I think she should, she didn't waste a single opportunity to sidetrack herself off-topic and into propaganda. She also had a handful of facts wrong.
This further demonstrates the sad state NATO has gotten itself into. We are being technologically leapfrogged by Russia, and ground under by the opportunism of the CCP and other nations which have grown to resent NATO and the USA, all while our 'experts' seem to be living in a sort of 'Narnia' about it all.
That is how they got the ship
Goodness... academia re-invented the Gartner Hype Curve!
Posting this comment from different video because I didn't see that I wasn't on your most recent episode and want to see the channel grow.
I think you really need to create a 'The Merge Clips" channel or offer small, interesting segments (3-10 minutes) as gets done with other podcasts like Lex and such. People are not going to take the plunge on an hour long video if they aren't familiar and viewers like me often can't dedicate that much time, even though I know I'll enjoy it. Yes, I could just pause and come back, but that takes more clicks and people are notorious for doing whatever they can to avoid more clicks to do something.
I think you're mainly going to only get views from people that get led to the channel from direct channel recommendations from other UA-camrs. If almost everything you produce is an hour, you will only get a very small number of views from people who get recommended the show by the algorithm. If you posted short segments and clips you would at least get a higher percentage of UA-cam recommendations turning into views, even for people that already watch some videos. It's not just the hosts that people can feel unsure about, it's every different guest. If you have clips for each guest you'll allow people to get a feel for whether they want to watch the whole episode. If you feel like you're cutting to much it just remember that if you leave a non offensive (over-the-top) cliffhanger in the clip people will want to know how it ends.
Again, I'm not talking about shorts either, I think 3-10 minute segments or occasionally up to 15 minutes. The other popular shows do a ton of short segments, so it seems like it works and is important. Putting out at least two or three segments for every guest and episode seems like a decent goal. Plus, having more regular posted videos and getting more views helps get the algorithm's attention and you might get more recommendations. I know that's a ton of extra work, but that's my uneducated, inexperienced feeling about growing the channel and podcast, at least on UA-cam.
Edit: You have a lot of old episodes that you can mine for clips as well. You have to promote the new videos with clips, but you can sprinkle in videos from segments of old episodes as well.
Great feedback. It's definitely on our list!
The air force was in the second world war
How are you going to fly
What about the patriots and all those systems
Started out wanting to learn about drones, didn't know the conversation would be an advocacy for DEI. I'm out.
That part only lasted about five minutes, but I am absolutely not impressed with the amount of obfuscation, and subtle, passive attempts at geopolitical deception and propaganda in her answers to the questions.
This wasn't the most honest or forthcoming guest. Truth of the matter is, NATO is far behind when it comes to drone warfare, and while all are equipment is tied up in specialties, complications, and cost premiums, both the Ukrainians, and especially the Russians recce and FOO units, have figured out how to do the same job in theatre for pennies on the dollar.
Everything she seemed to have here prepared did not properly inform this audience, and it seemed to be an attempt to misdirect this audience, in fact. Defense experts like this in NATO are going to get many, many infantry and close support killed.
You know what is wonderful US Space force using spacex starship like a submarine in space for orbital bombardment across the world
Lol.. it would be an easy target for being nuked. If anyone tries anything like that space would be full of nukes within months. You have a GI Joe child fantasy.
I see you don't know about the X-37b
Dang!! those are all DJI drones... They must be making a killing (in dollars i mean)
Why don’t you cover vt/by40 drone ? It’s the bidggest killer on the battlefield and it’s Russian . Even the west fears acknowledging these drones as they have to admit how good they are . Ask her to explain “ mega drone city “ , yeah putin two years ago commissioned the building of a whole city to building top tech drones( no country in the world has thought to do such a feat ) .
After the 8th tb2 was dropped the Ukraines called it useless , “easy to hit” was there words . How many predators been dropped in the last few years ? .
You probably-Kremlin cheerleaders are so transparent 🙄🤡 Go away, you’re not fooling anyone with your BS…
What is your opinion on Russia pushing into African countries, and now Ukraine fighting them in Sudan?
Do you need a professional youtube thumbnail designer and UA-cam video SEO expert?
Thank you and your guest. Informative episode based on true events, absolutely without mockery, without ridicule anyone, simply no propaganda just information based opinions.
I wish to make a small contribution to the part in 42:22
See, Turkiye is a 70+ consequtive years NATO member ( unlike France and Greece, which used to left alliance back in the day). Yet, still "is Turkiye our friend ?" kinda questions are really annoying.
US must really judge themselves about past mistakes on decisions.
- Fattening tech industry in China, so much that even F-35 depends on chinese made components.
- Promoting unstability in EU's and NATO's neighbouring reigns (Libya, Syria, Iraq even Iran) and depending EU to Russian fossil energy.
- Creating unsung embargos to Turkiye, a 70+ years long NATO member in order to support non-legit, stateless terror grouos to create further unstability and treathing border security, which was not exist before 2011.
Ask yourselves also, why do we push so much instability around our NATO member's borders ? Are we their allie or what ?
Again, thanks for the episode. Looking for more to come. 👍
Great insights, thanks for sharing
I don't like the editing of the answers. It's annoying and makes me wonder what was edited out.
What's edited out is silence. Editing helps keep the flow and makes a shorter video. The only part that I don't like with the editing is the zooming in and out. It is more jarring than just jumps between the frames.
Mark. I think that is where your imagination kicks in. Yes, something was "deleted" out, say. What was it? I think you know that viewers cannot detect something being deleted.
@@rudycandu1633 Good feedback, thank you. Yes, our editing is to increase viewer experience--not to tailor an agenda or message.
Lot of propaganda 😂😂
You provided zero substance. Instead you just look triggered and unable to intellectually contribute
Like what?😮