Demographics Part 1: Understanding the Basics
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- Опубліковано 5 лют 2025
- At its core, my work weaves together the heavy trends of geopolitics and demographics into a tapestry that can be viewed from any number of directions. Most folks in spaces political, economic or strategic tend to gloss over demography. Much to their detriment in my opinion.
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When I did my study abroad in Ulsan South korea, there was a day when the program director was explaining to us the strategic importance of the schools international program and I will never forget what I took to be as a look of desperstion in the mans eyes as he knew what was coming for his country. Fastforward to today, here in the USA, and every client I have is complaining about the labor shortage as I warn them to not get stuck in a political lie that people are just lazy, but to rather to understand the demographics which means the problem is NOT going away. Instead, if you have a hard time aquiring employees, you better damn well develop a stellar program to keep the ones you have/do manage to hire. Extracting wealth from you labor pool while acting as though you can just fire at will should be a dead concept for any serious business person.
a lot of universities in s.korea are starting to merge as there is not enough students
Excellent explanation of the demographic pyramid. I work with technological disruption in geopolitics. I'm sure you are aware but I am not sure you have integrated the effect of these disruptions in your model forecasting. The key axis of your pyramid is about to change. Aging is already slowed. It will be halted and reversed within 20 years. Your age axis is no longer going to be an accurate descriptor of the productive cycle of people. You will have your youth - non productive, learning, building base skills and consuming - but they will be extended out into their 30's, living at home, drinking all the milk and leaving the cap off. Once they leave the nesting cycle, ageless humans will go through a productive gathering cycle - earning and saving for retirement - and then they will transition to a retirement cycle - the same as you aptly describe but these cycles will be much more blended in age. Some adults will never get it together and will live hand to mouth into their first century. Some will be fortunate to gain all the tools and the privilege so they never have to work again after a decade of productivity. Some will just be productive people, working for the experience and not the money and they will work all the way through their first century. Many will simply cycle from gathering to spending as they outlive their funds. Bear in mind this isn't Star Trek coming in the 25th century. We will cure aging in the next ten years and it will be saturated in the population in twenty. Peter is going to have to wrap his head around what that does to consumption, trade, markets etc. For one thing all the actuarial pension tables are just wrong. If someone is offering to pay you money for the rest of your life - take it. (Dont be fooled though most annuities and life policies have age limits). Social security is laughably underfunded. We will transition to an investment economic model rather than a productive economic model (Like Saudi). Politically that means the plutocracy gets stronger - the resentful underclass gets bigger, more violent and either has to be included or repressed. Included is better - you can't repress a technologically liberated underclass unless you turn into North Korea in which case your elite live worse in that system than the laborers do in a free one. Put that in the mix with global warming, ai, nukes, crspr viruses and the same dirty animal brain that got us to that point and your best investment will be bullets and a bunker in the mountains next to Peter.
Yep, I live in a midish-sized town in America where many of the fast-food chain that were always traditionally staffed by highschoolers have had a labor shortage for the past couple years and finally started raising pay above minimum wage. They keep complaining that highschoolers are too lazy or pampered to go get a job but seem to realize that the local high school's student enrollment has decreased by 20% in the past 5 years thanks to natural youth population decline (young adults move away for better opportunities and so have their kids elsewhere), which means there just aren't enough workers who would accept minimum wage (people as unskilled and inexperienced as high schoolers) to keep the stores staffed anymore.
@@AliceinWonderlandzz Have you seen any evidence of big pharma and big food getting on board with that?
Ulsan is where korea imports it's petroleum, very important place for foreign study.
I love this man
So knowledgeable and a great presenter/public speaker
Yes he is! Thank goodness for Audible - as I'm living in China and even though I can't buy his books, I can still listen to them! Excellent author and geopolitical analyst!
But he doesn’t address the demographics no one wants (blacks)
It’s a really nice skill. The words just come out smoothly
The little glimpses to the normal home life are brilliant after such weighty topics
The Dune books have brought me here
I feel like a magician just explained the magic trick to me. Thank you Peter. I don't know how many geopolitical consultants know this stuff and just keep it to themselves, but thank you for sharing the wealth.
Peter is not hesitant to point out that unlike almost all of his confreres he is a generalist so he covers a wide swath in his studies of this busy little planet.
Most of his ilk confine themselves to particular areas that they know exceedingly well because that's just the way it works.
Peter also has a slightly impish approach to his craft ie. he enjoys injecting his own humour into whatever he is discussing. It's not for effect, he's just that way. He would do the same thing if he was a mechanic, an architect or a rocket surgeon. It is greatly appreciated from this quarter.
Thanks!
As a Canadian, I still get that excited feeling when Americans talk about us.
Great video. Can't wait for the next.
Haha, we yanks have the nicest neighbors in the world just to the north of us. We're lucky.
@@garymackelprang5716 Contrast us with Switzerland. How would you like to live in an apartment with a Frenchman to your left, an Austrian to your right, an Italian below you, and a German above you who's constantly arguing with his Polish neighbor? We truly are in a great spot, other than Canada sometimes messing with our thermostat
I had a some Canadian roommates in college and they were all super nice. I did get a little tired of hearing how much better Canada is than the US...while they were going to school in the US...but other than that they were fantastic and each with a great sense of humor.
I had a beer with a couple of Canadian guys about 20 years ago and the one thing they bragged about was their health care system. The rest of the civilized world is mystified why Americans tolerate our absurdly expensive health care.
@@sideler7057 Keep in mind California has more people than Canada. My friend in the UK was just telling me how backed up and slow their healthcare system is. I have a friend in Canada that recently came down to the US for eye surgery because he could get in right away. So...pluses and minuses. If you think the US government would "fix" healthcare you haven't noticed that it hasn't improved anything it has touched.
I really enjoy your sense of humor and how you weave that into your videos. It’s apparent that it’s just your personality and therefore not “overdone” which is refreshing!
Gay
Now that’s a word that has evolved its meaning over time.
He’s a GenX dorky white dad! Exactly like me! Finally I’m represented in media! Although I’m GenX so I really don’t care.
Peter could literally be making all of this stuff up, but he says it so confidently i just believe him word for word.
After Trump winning at all, i will remain skeptical of anyones analysis of the presidential election
@@dynamicascension981Tiny brain is not an excuse.
He isn't...
Peter has given numerous highly informative presentations that can be found here on UA-cam. Thank you for sharing your incredible insights, Peter!
Thank you Mr. Peter, for your education and information.
Germany will become Gerfew
German here. Whenever I start being happy, Peter puts out a new video.
I cant believe you just put that out there without any warning. 😂😂😂
And the best thing is that the germans completly in denial😂 no politican talks about this topic.
@@Kartal49ful Olaf Scholz just said a couple of weeks ago that the population may rise to 90 million within the next 50 years, because of immigration. If that is true expect atleast 500k net immigration every year. It atleast shows that the issue is on the governments radar
Good one
Thanks for educating us. I had no idea about any of this until i found you. Its THE fundamental baseline of our economy and yet being 42 i had no clue about any of it. I assume most Americans are in my boat of being ignorant.
I learned about these issues in high school marketing and college geography courses. I’m not much older than you. 🤷🏻♂️
THANK YOU FOR DOING A SERIES ON DEMOGRAPHICS!!! And for discussing how the collapse might look like so we can figure out how to navigate it. I left a comment in a previous UA-cam video asking for this and I'm super grateful to see this content. Thank you from the bottom of my heart for putting this out there
You are a world treasure, Peter. Thanks for amazing content as always, love all your books!
I really love the regular newsletter updates. At age 50 I have found Geopolitics and demographic’s specifically fascinating. Thank you for giving me something new to tickle my brain.
Consumption does not always go down as people hit their 60’s. Rather, consumption shifts significantly to increasing medical costs.
One big question we face is whether or not the social programs will continue that keep a very large number of elders - who have, in many cases worked all their lives - in food, housing, and medical care.
That is important “consumption” for society and even to some degree in the economy. But it seems to me that the elders who are not wealthy are going to be abandoned soon. Any thoughts about this?
Very much agree with you Gary Hoover. And in certain countries (authoritarian regimes or third world countries) health care is easily rationed from the elderly, thus creating a quick "fix" to the lopsided demographics. These countries could easily create a younger average age population within the overall smaller general population. This would not alleviate the problem of decreasing birth rates, but it would eliminate the increased medical cost incurred with an aging population
@@LAAFarmingsounds very hunter gatherish.
@@LAAFarmingit does improve birth rates. As population decreases, birth rates increase.
Professor Zeihan! Always look forward to one of his lectures 👨🎓
Your wholistic approach to viewing the world has really opened my eyes. Thanks for presenting this series, I'm sure it will be as mind-expanding as it is entertaining....
this topic is complex but explained so beautifully, which is why i am always in awe of this man. good work !!
Our family loves you Peter! Wishing you a 🎉Happy New Year… you just keep on getting better & better.
Your students are so lucky to have you! Thank you for sharing your lectures ❤
Really appreciate you sharing your knowledge.
Fascinating stuff.
That is a really important topic for people to understand as it influences so much, but sadly it is under the radar of most people. It was under the radar for me too until I go hold of one of your books back in 2018. Thank you for sharing that.
Very educational. Sad many economic degrees do not teach this basic theory.
Good for you. A degree in economics
I followed this guy and partook in his livestreams when no one believed his stuff and he was viewed as kind of "niche". He is an icon for us demographics fans
This is fantastic! So glad you're putting this info out for us, there's not a lot of places you can learn this. Can't wait for the series
Among all the good information, Peter, you always make me smile.
Great take on demographics, and addressing the changing impact of declining birth rates in many countries. I am especially interested to see your follow-up on immigration, a topic front and center right now. I'm not sure how the hollowing out of the early and middle segments of society affect production if you move away from the traditional manufacturing model, and think about digital production in a digital world.
I’d be interested to get peoples thoughts on a public / private partnership that addresses the mass migration issue on the US southern border (and broader immigration) and the labor shortage? Incentivize companies with significant labor pools (Amazon, FedEx, Kroger, Agribusiness, Manufacturing) to take on a 2 year apprenticeship program that include language and skills training (plus people paying taxes and staying in good legal standing in the community) that specifically attacks the demographic induced labor shortage?????
Easy. Just equip the people to 1. take care of their own, and 2. to get housing early so they have stable families. Then you don't need immigration. And unlike what Zeihan seems to think here, immigration isn't just a matter of making a settler society. The settlers created havoc for the natives. They built America, true, and created civilization. So they made the place better. But this isn't true for all such "settling" events in history.
Zeihan fans are a type. We watch him every day and read everything he writes
Thanks Peter - I really look forward to your videos - so interesting and informative. I can’t wait for the rest of this series!!
Excellent source of information not available ANYWHERE I searched. Thank you!
" . . . . because that is how math works." I laugh at that line every time.
Not if you're korean.
I feel like I should get a sign that says that in my office. And then point to it as I go through my day.
@@willchristie2650 Well, he's still mad that 81 million is more than 74 million...
Bloody fantastic content Peter.
Many thanks for "compressing" complex ideas into plain ol' english.
Stay safe chief.
How entertaining is this guy!
Makes me want to come out of retirement and attempt to be this instructive
PAY LESS AT K-LESS
Peter Zeihan mahalo. I am learning a ton of demographics lessons. Yu da one Peter.
Hi Peter Zeihan, thanks for sharing this, and especially this new series on demographics. For the next episode that focuses on Canada, please please please (earnest request 😂), make it a longer video that hopefully covers the below areas too:
1. What in essence is the Canadian model? The breakdown in demographic-economic-political terms. Also the geographical context, if possible.
2. Does Canada have a future, or are the cracks being seen in the system- housing crisis, health system breakdowns, inefficient bureaucracy, a part of a larger implosion that is inevitable.
3. Does having the 2nd largest land mass and an abundance of resources count when your base population is just ~38 mil? And when the population density is so tilted towards very few population centers.
The Canadian model is that we have aborted too many children and now have to make up for it with massive immigration. National suicide by abortion and not having children. Now who would ever have dreamt that up? 🤷♂
do some googling and read his books, he has gone over Canada at great length
I recall the phrase: you better be saying that with a smile on your face. Peter talks about impending doom in a happy-go-lucky fashion. the doom is not for the currently retired but for their children. There are those that say the solution to a labor shortage is robotics. An economist a used to follow, Bob Brinker, - now retired himself- often said: robots don't go shopping.
I want more details on the shenanigans!
Peter, interested in your insight to Josh Zumbrun’s WSJ “Data Tweak” article 12-23-23 and counter view re Japan, et al?
Hahahaha! Love the nerf at the end. Peter is probably that kinda geeky, crazy uncle that all the cousins love to play with.
Excellent article Peter, good health and prosperity for 2023
No planes? :) I almost miss them.
Quick and informative. You're my fav new youTube teacher.
I never thought to look at the data that’s publicly available to distill a future for investing as you have distilled and given us thank you.
This is going to be a good series. Looking forward to it.
Very exciting video for me who is just trying to understand the connections! Two beginner questions:
1. Why is the normal population pyramid inflationary? Because there are more young people who consume more than there are goods or capital available and prices rise as a result?
2. Why are there not enough people in the inverted pyramid to have more children? Suppose there are 40 older adults, 30 young adults and 20 children (corresponding to a birth rate of 1.5). If the birth rate could be increased to 2, then the model would evolve towards the chimney model, wouldn't it? (30 young adults and 30 children)
Also learning myself. For what it's worth, I think your guess for question 1 makes sense to me. Peter also mentioned the need to import for those economies with pyramid demographics, so it makes sense that demand would be greater than supply in general, driving inflation.
As for the second, I always thought the point was that it was nearly impossible to incentivize a population to have more children, if the demographics resemble the inverted pyramid. This makes some sense to me because the costs of supporting the elderly would fall on those who can have children, just the finances can discourage people from having any children.
@@monkeeseemonkeedoo3745 It can recover and grow but its very rare. The post WWII boom in birthrates took a lot of people by surprise. I feel that was a situation that may never be repeated
As a Canadian, looking forward to part 2! I'm a part of the cohort that would have loved to have had kids, but couldn't even pretend to afford it until my 40s.
If medieval peasants could afford it, you can. lol
@@Thehuskarl you mean the medieval economic model where agriculture and thus labor was all important as opposed to the 21st century model of capitalism?
Doesn't Canada have this wonderful social system, free healthcare and support for young families? At least that's what we are told here in the good O' US of A.
We do NOT have "free" health care. We have high taxes that pay for our Socialist/Communist healthcare and Education systems. Once one leaves the hospital be prepared to pay out of pocket unless one has a good benefit plan.
I'm a Canadian. I'm 26 - I have two children and my wife is currently a stay at home mother at least until our youngest is 2 (however we are thinking about trying for another soon). I work a skilled trade job and make a comparable salary to others in the trades (70k year + probably about 5-10k in side work). We live on the West Coast of British Columbia. We live modestly but are still able to go out every once in a while for a nice meal. Kids are expensive, yes, but once you have kids a lot of other spending goes down. It's all about budgeting and not spending superfluously
One of my favorite UA-cam channels.
Peter Zeihan: cranks out demegraphic doomer vids before going off to shoot canadian ice zombies. What a lad xD
Good to see other guys my age having fun!
Zeihan gets that early bird!!!
I'm obsessed with you: it's like pouring water on a dry sponge - every video, interview, or blog -it all dove tails to every conceivable level of historical information i have compiled over the years. Absolutely on point, Frightening, Exhilarating, Sobering, and Threatening. Thank's for these..
... 🇷🇺 🇨🇳 🦖 ☄️ now i'm armed with vital information and intended to use it. *[ settler countries ]. Next on the Menu: American Human Habitat Loss, Managed Retreat, Planetary Hospice. 🌊
Peter you changed my world view, as an INTJ that is a hard reset. Your book was great but even better is your constant updates of the world changing in real time.
I hope the next set of videos will address not just the numbers/distribution, but how the changing demographics are affected by changing living arrangements. What effect are boomerang/failure to launch/aging parent households going to have on housing, economic growth, employment patterns, investment and wealth transfer?
I once worked with nearly an identical twin to Peter. He was the most brilliant yet unassuming man I ever met. The same mannerisms and all, which seems more than coincidence. Hi Jerry H, if you are out there.
3:22 More Pagoda shaped now in alot of cases. Sorry I won't spoil it.
I'm not seeing low birth rate as a bad thing. I can understand it from Peter's point of view as an economic, consumerism, materialistic problem, but as he pointed out, it's the model we've been under for some time. With less birth rates, less over crowding, less suburban sprawl, less waste, less consumption of vital resources.... It will be painful but I think the world can and will adjust to it.
I'm looking forward to this series.
Yeah, Greece is doing so well. Then when 95% of European countries follow in Greece’s path who will be bailing out and supporting all these countries that have had economic collapses with low tax revenue and zero tools to deal supporting a massive elderly population
Exactly. More people consuming more stuff (growing gdp) means we are turning the earth's resources into trash and poisoning ourselves faster (see freshwater sources, mercury/plastic in ocean fisheries, topsoil, carbon in atmos, etc. Growth - making things bigger - given all the negative feedback we are recieving = bad. Development - making thing better is good. Also, he does not discuss all the jobs we can do without and/or that are being automated - from driverless vehicles to AI to replace some cust service and lawyers :))). Plus, how many dog walkers and tatoo artist and....... do we really need? The list goes on and on - not sure why he ignores. The pop 'problem' is in the super-conumer countries. If we back away from the trough, it will allow us to share more with the 'lesser' developed countries. Now, que the hysterical remarks about killing people or having to ride bikes.
@@gregwelch5994 he ignores? Try cracking open one of his books and stop assuming because you watch his 8 minutes videos you possess knowledge gained from his 500 page books.
Easy to say, in practice it means you as an old person are unable to afford basic needs like food and health care because the costs skyrocket due to a complete lack of labor. You'd experience a retirement closer to that of your great great grandparents rather than what your parents had in their retirement. Living with your kids, sharing costs, retirement savings won't be worth anything if every prescription drug you need costs 10 times as much and government entitlements are thrown out the window to salvage the remaining economy. As you say "economic, consumerism, materialistic problems" are directly related to quality of life. If the economy doesn't grow and things stagnate you are lucky if your quality of life only stagnates, most everywhere it declines.
@@kitfisto15678 You are partially right, but todays technology still makes it possible to create much more from lesser hands.
A retirement similar to the world of our great grandparents should still look rosier then a century ago.
So much food is thrown away I refuse to believe we cannot support the elderly with free leftovers and painkillers/essential meds should cash-on-hand pensions fail to be viable.
Im so grateful to have access to these snack sized bits of your mind.
As my old sociology prof used to say: Demography is destiny
Super concise and very informative, easy to understand model of how demographics work in general. Really looking forward to the upcoming videos in this series!
Keep the awesome work going, also btw. just listening to your recently published book and it's A-class! I love your sense of humor. It keeps the sometimes longwinded and more technical stuff easier to digest.
Can you do analysis on soft power and culture? I feel like that affects power struggles as much or even more. The chinese youth in general are moving into the realm of apathy by overbearing parents and culture. China has tons of factories, but unable to create things that people view as having value, compared to japan
Might have to do with age of population, income level of population….Japan at one time made well known for cheap electronics and stuff also
@@johnl.7754 Yes, that is common thinking. But japan has a stronger soft power export. Many like anime and have postive association with japan. That has to count on some part because japan is 10x smaller than china in terms of population.
As always great information to help understand our world and where it’s going. Happy new year all!
Peter, great vid, as usual! You’ve have been mentioning in many of your previous videos that people who retire (you mention at 65 years of age) sell their “risky” assets, such as stocks, and go into T-bills and bonds. That is not what is recommended by the Financial Planning or Wealth Management people. The reason behind this is inflation, especially nowadays. Said otherwise, you might not make it through retirement if you’ve sold all your stocks at retirement (65 or before that age) and have gone into T-bills or bonds… Granted that at about 75 years of age, there is a great value in selling a portion of your stocks to go to an annuity. This approach shields you from investment mistakes due to dementia later in life and, should someone (read a child) start doing some monkey business with your money, you can always rely on your annuity to fund your remaining years as the associated capital is now with an insurance company. Sooo, I’m not sure about going into T-bills and bonds at the time of retirement…
i've argued about this with him a couple of times - even if individuals are better off employing a "life cycle investing" technique where they shift into lower volatility assets, institutions that outlive individuals are not and with the rise of massive pension funds in the past 60 years, that assumption about the demographic impact of society's aggregate portfolio falls down pretty badly
I think the point is still the older you get the less money you spend... and invest as a result. Much of what you do after retirement is take in what was previously invested/saved even an annuity is something you pay for prior to retirement (or part way into it). How many average people keep investing after they retire? They may not sell the stocks right away but unless they are rich, they tend to just hold onto everything until they have to use it.
Arguing about tbills or stocks or whatever is fine, but the end result is still less consumption, more so as you get closer to 100.. and beyond.
Aso consider what is already happening in places like Japan and Europe.. the impact of lower consumption is already a reality.
@@edgeldine3499 True for consumption. It goes down as one age. No quarrel there. But…, I’m not so sure that after 65 (or at the age one retires…, I retired at 55) one should go to T-bills and bonds. Actually, that would be the wrong thing to do, especially if you end up living beyond 90. Inflation will eat you alive big time, unless you are immensely rich and can afford to loose more than 50% of your wealth.
@@edgeldine3499 The older you get, the more you spend on health and medical (trust me, I know this one). So that is consumption that pays the salaries of health care professionals and caregivers.
Thank you very much for that information, never thougth about it, but it's defintelly worth hearing.
I FEEL SO MUCH PAAAAAIN AAASASAAARFHGHGHFBF
“Demography is destiny”
- Auguste Comte
Demography is politics.
Funny how his weather comes from Canada, but the snowy weather in eastern Canada today is coming from the USA (a Texas low)! Probably because climate and weather patterns are in cycles, but he's watching planetary social ones instead of physical ones.
Could you make a synopsis on the UK in the future. Cheers
Synopsis? More like Autopsy...
@@moritamikamikara3879 that's what I'm afraid of...
Love this demographics series and can't wait to listen to it all! Thank you for sharing your wisdom!
I’m not Canadian, but I’m defense of the winter weather we receive from them, I’m sure that the would remind Coloradans that they only have water and tourism because of all of that snow 😉
I however hate the cold since I nearly froze to death a couple time in my youth. That's why we need a VERY tall wall on the Canadian border.. Bad idea? Well I tried..😁
Can confirm. Lived in Denver 5 years and it rained once. Lots and lots of snow, no rain.
Appreciate you very much Peter! Thanks for your mind!
The US could have made accounting/finance mandatory in the schools since Sputnik.
See: The Screwing of the Average Man by David Hapgood
@Tracchofyre
We get a downfall anyway. What has planned obsolescence done for us? There were 200,000,000 cars in the US in 1994. At $1500 of depreciation per car per year that was $300,000,000,000. Where is the data on the annual depreciation of automobiles since Sputnik?
This series is very fascinating. It’s put much of my questions into perspective. I still don’t understand the push on young Americans towards abortions and transgender surgeries if they need to be having children while at the same time importing people to have children. Can you speak to that motivation?
Thanks for all your videos and insight.
So, IT really IS a PYRAMID SCHEME!
Always has been 🌎👨🚀🔫👨🚀
Great stuff! I was starting to understand demographics from some of your earlier videos, but this explanation .... is making me smart! Thank you!
Immigration did wonders to France. You can see the flames in Paris from a far.
Important topic; which is not very often explained. Looking forward to the next videos….BR from Germany.
I'm a little mystified at Peter's idea that old people don't spend money. Most of the old people I know cost a fortune, and the first fortune they spent was their own.
That's not what he said.
1:55( ... not consuming very much...)
2:07(not buying ALL THAT MUCH...)
30 years ago I realized that the babyboom generation as a bubble moving thru time like a garden hose,has a tremendous impact on different industries. Kenny Shoes, Parker Bros, Detroit, housing, personal electronics,then investing, then retirement. That bubble created the base of the triangle,then the chimney, now the upside down triangle. I was born in '57. Good luck 🤨
Timestamp 1:36 Retirement and the golden glow shines as you speak of our golden years!! Kudos to the camera man, mother nature or the neighbors flood light coming on. The light lasted too long to be a passing car.
As for inverted pyramid - I look at "The Villages" in Florida. Stable income with low impact people spending money. Low impact because there are no schools to build. Most costs are medical. Sucks for hurricanes as the elderly are harder to transport.
Peter, sir. Its risky to break populations down by groups but there are white collar, blue collar and non participant cadre's that massively influence production, military and research driving forces or resources. Hopefully this can be touched upon as education, real education / skills, not underwater basket weaving, can drive an economy. [All apologies to underwater basket weavers ]
This is starting to become entertaining not just informative ... lol
You’re the best Peter!
This is all about the maximization of the workforce. We need to support worker families. Care givers in the workforce add the extra muscle for the production but fail to hold up their end on child production. Additionally the commercialization of children in the Anglosphere makes it too expensive to raise more than 1 and maybe 2 children if you save. Large families cannot do hand-me-downs like we did in the 50s-80's everyone needs new stuff for their children.
You're correct Ken. In addition, I would say that it is TIME to start valuing men again. Feminists indoctrinate females to detest and fear men. This is NOT a recipe for replacing our population. Neither is abortion. Right now, there are only several developing countries that still replenish their children. The developed World (according to Peter) stopped YEARS ago.
We have to understand how feminism is deliberately destroying and devaluing men. Once we cross that bridge, men will cease to be "throw away" and we can have more children.
Sanjosemike (no longer in CA)
I read your comment and ask myself if this person has followed Peter for more than one day or has every read any of his books. Of course taking care of one’s children well is a white thing. Sorry it’s not anglo culture to have many children with many men out of wedlock where none of the children are well cared for and grow up in a culture where education is laughed at, street reputation is what’s important, and AIDS claims many lives. Are you suggesting your culture is the one we should be adhering to? Point to a successful country that has such a culture. Exactly
You've never been to Utah, I take it. Utah has the highest average household size at 3.08 people per home, highest birth rate at 14.9 per 1000, and median household income is much higher than the US National figures.
Lots of young, educated workers with big families.
@@LRRPFco52 but they are practically a tribe in Utah caring for each other in child care, well-being and employment. Morons are a culture rarely duplicated in tribal support.
@@paperandmedals8316 Amish, Mennonites, but they isolate from modern society sticking to farming and their daily labors.
Oh Boy, this a Very Divisive Issue within Canada. Quebec and Ontario along with B.C. .Cannot wait for the next episode. Ps. We call it a Siberia Outflow (-45° C) in Canada 🇨🇦 When leaves Alberta it's an Alberta Clipper. We just love to share. Be Safe, Eyes on the Weather it is quite Dangerous at these Temperatures when mixed in with Snow .
I’ve been very curious about how immigration plays into this and how we may be getting gaslighted by our government in attempts to hide this fact before people realize why we are fighting over our border crises.
Immigration does not help natural birth demographics and countries that thing they can do it will find out it does not work.
It can help productivity and boost the natural population but will never act as a replacement. The US is not relying on immigration it has a good natural birth rate compared to other developing nations. Not as good as years past but still good.
@@bighands69 It also depends on the class of immigrants. We (the US) have made immigration difficult unless they are uneducated peasants from the 2nd and 3rd world. They are allowed to sneak across the border and collect benefits like free health insurance and food. That immigration does no good.
@@bighands69 But who are having the children? Not predominantly immigrants I presume?
@@emceeboogieboots1608 The poorer people and more rural people are having more.
Lots of love from Canada Peter! Got your 2 newest books for Christmas so it was a very good holiday.
If i was a government with that inverted pyramid structure, i would hire Zeihan to make a seminar which would be aired on national television with subtitles to explain to the population why pension age has to be higher. And to explain what you as a people have to do to stop the trends. Right now many people think it's some kind of conspiracy as to the raising of the pension age in the western world.
And at the same time many people are still screaming about overpopulation.
Yes, unfortunately too many people immediately say “good!,” when he says the population is declining. They don’t understand the implications of rapid population decline.
Working longer has dramatically different meanings for desk workers and those in physically demmanding jobs. Studies show that unskilled blue collars have a 10 years shorter life expectancy than white collars and frequently make it to their sixties with an abundance of lesions and disabilities. Raising pension age is the same as telling this people they shall work until they die.
A sensible immigration policy with the incorporation of young foreign work force into the system bears more fruits and is less inhumane.
It's as easy as lowering taxes and regulations to spur economic benefits to incentives people to create bigger families. German government don't want any of that to keep power and telling people how to live there lives.
@@Libertarianmobius1 I don't agree. Modern urban populations will not have big families no matter what. Raising and educating many kids and having them 18 years in your payroll is simply inconvenient and perceived by most europeans as an obsolete lifestyle. Scandinavian countries have been offering god-sweet benefits for years to incentivise young parents to have more children, with very little success to show for it. Lowering taxes for low and medium income families in developed countries solves lots of problems. A low fertility rate is unfortunately not one of them.
Thanks for these explanations. I will definitely watch the whole Demographics series.
How do you think AI will affect the importance of demographics? With most of us becoming unemployable over the coming decades, higher population will be a higher pressure and cost of resources on nation states, no?
Best end video ever
Zeihan doesn't have any degree in demographics so don't take his opinion as a lecture, he is actually wrong on many accounts, but he will never debate his points with actual experts who can challenge him. Instead he just monologues in the wild, where no one can ask him to elaborate, site the source or prove his point with actual statistics, or adress his previous wrong statements or mistakes or outright fabrications.
And? Nobody makes you listen to him.
Unless
Dude population demographics are pretty cut and dry. If you have an old society, you can't keep the infrastructure going because they are too old to work
Op is a Qing Qeng Hanjii Winnie the pooh headass.
what a sharp dude. Quite fascinating.
Like the Christmas Star, you light the path down the road a little way, not perhaps to show us the way, but at least to prepare us for the several holes just up ahead in the road. Merry Christmas to you and your family. Look forward to your almost daily foresight.
Life expectancy has increased but I would argue that "health" has not. Glad I found your channel. Need more articulation of reality since our leaders won't speak facts,
"that ship has sailed" ... laughed my butt off. But we're paddling as hard as we can Peter!
Looking forward to the Part 2
I love demographics. Thanks for the tutorial. Merry Christmas and Happy New Year.
Looking forward to learning much more from you peter!
Merry Christmas to you Peter , thank you for all these videos , i love geopolitics and you make IT fun and accessible . If half the Political élite was listening to you , the world would be at least a Little bit better 😁
A nice summary of underlying basics. Warmest compliments. :)
Bought your ‘Beginning’ book, Peter. What a great read!
It's so cold, you can hardly see his breath. Still it's better than the cell phone videos.
Merry Christmas, Peter! 🎄
From Canada 🇨🇦 sorry about the snow storm. Merry Christmas you can keep it.