Everytime the UN and other institutions like World bank publish demographic numbers and every year the number published in the previous years are wrong. Nobody can figure out why the fertility rate are falling precipitously and where will they stop. I have figured out the "why" and "how" and trust me its very ugly. P.S. most of your projections need major revisions.
Any chance I could send you a questionnaire. You inspired me to take demographics as a part of my course, and I’d love to be able to include you in my school work. If not, just please tell me, and thanks, great video as always! PS just give me info (e-mail, discord anything)
I am 30 years old and come from a family with 8 children, I am the oldest of them in age. From my brothers and sisters 5 are adults. And three of them claim that life is meaningless and we should not have children because we bring them to a cruel world with death and misery. So I have started to see the whole issue as a cultural struggle between life and anti-life sentiment among the young. Many young people seem to feel, especially Gen Z that life is just unbearable and nonexistence is preferable.
I feel you bro. It is hard to live in a nihilistic society. Though kind of ironic for you to type this with name "Quantum Foam" -- doesn't seem to get much more Rick and Morty-Reddit-Atheist than that. Not to offend you, just a funny circumstance. My name and profile pic is also from before my conversion and could be interpreted in a similar way. I hope we find Christianity again as societies. :)
@@kaiserbauch9092I think we need to promote a societal system where one has a feeling of belonging to. Where most people will feel like others actually care about them. I don't see that in our current societies.
@@coredeadman5980 Wow you are so smart. I'm sure among the hundreds and thousands of extremely intellectually gifted Catholic scholars that lived since the time of Christ noone ever found this amazing argument against the Blessed Trinity. You should consider getting into theology with such a sharp intellect. But be careful that you don't cut yourself as clearly your intellectual prowess is sharp as an obsidian blade and might manifest itself in the realm of the physical due to being so enormously sharp. Sarcasm aside, you obviously don't have any idea what you are talking about. Christianity was and is followed by some of the smartest and most honest people who ever lived. You are free to disbelieve but you are not free to tell yourself the soothing lie that your intellectual tradition is the only one followed by smart, honest people.
raise the retirement age to 90 for anyone with one kid, 85 for two kids and 80 for three. Make early retirement treason ban anyone with under 4 kids from collecting public benefits and under 3 kids from getting private benefits. Its time to have a revolution against retirees
The worst part is that "fixing" the problem would lead to a double whammy for the generation that does the fixing, because they would have to support both a large population of retirees and children.
The Philippines is a classic example: it has an enormous child and elderly population and has to rely on exporting its surplus population to bolster its economy with foreign money remitted back by overseas workers and migrants.
Isn't it better than supporting the retirees and illegal alien infiltrators (wrongly called refugees) from a different ethnicity and culture than your own though?
there is a solution and the opposition to that would be purely cultural, in the west elder generations hold most of the capital , sharing as they do in some culture , would help. You can buy a bigger house and share expenses, to house everyone= > better outcome for everyone. Sure you're going to tell me that most people don't want to have to deal with their parents, yet is purely cultural.
Hahahaha, yep. Make having kids really expensive, tell us there is a population problem, tell women that it is better to have a career than have kids, then equal pay means two income households are required for what my dad could afford as a truck driver.
@@DaveStuart-n8iwe are simply not able to spend time with the children we have. If we have them. Why bring children into the world when we can’t even raise them?
15:25 One small correction here, the fertility rate in Portugal has risen because our government decided to open the flood gates since the pandemic. So migrants are the ones incresing the Portuguese fertility rate, not the native Portuguese.
THANK YOU for mentioning the elderly-voter-trap effect. People assume "oh we will eventually senesce our way out of this" but if each generation is getting smaller the voting base will always be top-heavy; there is no "aging out" of it. There will always be more old than young and they will always vote in their interests. It's a prisoners' dilemma because no generation wants to be the one left holding the shit sandwich. No one wants to let the buck stop with them.
I've seen that too. So many people are just expecting someone else to bail them out. They say things like, "This happens everywhere." Or "It will work itself out." I just don't understand. Even a simple vote can help out.
@@eksbocks9438Denial is a massive force here. Its very difficult to think that your grandparents may be a burden. Or that people should have a duty to have children in today's society. Governments so far have done a great job using sleight of hand to hide the problems of ageing populations. The British government accounts for example don't recognise a debt for paying future pensions - this is very deceptive.
@@jgw9990 It really is. I can't count how many times people have gotten mad at me about this. I would explain a problem or bug in the system. And they would dismiss everything, because I said it in the "wrong tone." And what are they doing to contribute? Nothing. They're just trash-talking people, and causing drama. It's so childish.
It’s funny you say that when these classes make up like 4-5% of college curriculum and business classes (3rd grade math) makes up 30% of college curriculum.
I wouldn’t look to government to fix this demographic mess. They might play a part in encouraging a viable solution but I seriously doubt the solution will ever come from them.
@@alexpotts6520 Communist Romania did. The result was unwanted kids being treated like shit. Someone needs to reverse engineer the genuine desire to make and raise children to fix this. Do not just argue "Religion" plenty of awful parents have children because "God commands it" and are complete shit to them. They just want an exit from eternal hellfire.
@@insomniacresurrected1000One problem is with just hard dictatorship force is that once the dictatorship is gone, the birth rates and population will collapse like what happened in Romania. Yes there needs to be encouragement of families and discouragement of not having families but to seek dictatorship over it is absurd.
I live in Japan, so I’m just going based of my experiences interacting with Japanese and other foreigners living here. At this point, it’s far more cultural (It’s not anti-natalist at all and a quite pro-natalist culture. Really complicated to express but the tldr is people in Japan are PETRIFIED of screwing up being a parent) and just a high level of childless than anything else. Rent is cheap, hours are now lower than Americans, and the job benefits while not massive by European standards are much better than American job standards. I think Japan is reaching a true snapping point soon as to how far they can avoid the situation. When that breaking point is reached, I think it’ll be the younger generation that is born into it in the 2030s/2040s who will have a high inclination to high levels of fertility. They will see the true horrors of what it means having no one looking out for you. I don’t think there will be a wide scale collapse in living standards coming here, but I think Korea is completely doomed on a level that is genuinely frightening. The majority of Gen Z in Korea do not want any children, and let’s take into consideration how many people want to have children but never will. I truly think Korea will have the unlucky position of being the poster child for ignoring the problem, and I think Korea will experience some of the steepest drops in living standards we’ve ever seen in human history in 20-40 years. Regardless, I love Japan, and I’m willing to sit through whatever crisis is coming my way here, and whatever conclusions of it happen will happen. There’s no sense worrying about an abstract future that hasn’t materialised yet even if I know it’ll likely be bleak compared to the present.
Japanese housing is cheap but many of the housing units in Tokyo are *tiny.* Idk whether it's smaller flats preventing people having kids, or smaller families causing the market to demand smaller flats, but either way it's a big obstacle to raising birth rates.
@@KojiCT It's the same problem with South Korea as well. They think they can focus strictly on White Collar stuff. Without a manufacturing/export base (small countries don't have raw materials). So, now you have a bunch of people going for scarce jobs. And they're worried about not having a place to live. So they take out loans to either pay the rent, or participate in some cryptocurrency scam ("investing").
I figured Japan and South Korea had low birth rates because who wants to lose their youth to cram school so they can make their kids go to cram school?
I don't think people realise the utter catastrophe that will unfold over the next 30 years. Consider the following points (I'm using Britain as an example but most of the 1st world is in the same trend): - Both state and private pensions rely on a regular influx of new workers into their accounts. The state pension age is rising the world over. Here in the UK it's between 66-68. We could be looking at state pension ages in the late 70s to early 80s within the next 10 years and by that point the system will simply collapse. Any measures taken to rectify the problem are pretty much untenable or will contribute to inflation spirals. - Hundreds of schools had to shut or combine last year. By some estimates, there is going to be a 50% drop in the number of children entering primaey school by 2030 in the UK. So we will see a huge reduction in the industry of education from primary school through university. - There will be an enormous reduction in the number of young people entering university for highly skilled professions such as doctors, engineers, math related fields and computer programming. In sheer desperation, standards will HAVE to be dropped in order to make up the demand. Expect a staggerring rise in human error across a variety of essential infrastructure and complex industries. - The aged population will become a burden of nightmarish proportions. State care will have to become the norm as there will be too few familial descendants to take care of the elderly. If the NHS and nursing homes are understaffed and under pressure now, they will simply implode under the weight of trying to care for so many. As the quality of care decreases, longevity will decline. - We will end up with swathes of economic dead zones and ghosts regions across the country (this is already happening in places like Japan and Italy). I could go on. The economic and skills shrinkage, the psychological destruction of society and culture that the imbalance of youth and elderly will bring, etc.
Britain would be a far far better country with a population of 40 million, like it had in 1945. Less pressure on all the systems which cannot cope now with the numbers of people. Health, housing, water, food security, energy, transport, etc will all benefit from less pressure in them and become more stable or affordable. I agree the social security system is a Ponzi scheme with younger people paying the incomes of the old, but more cash will be freed up when the baby boomers die, and that can be used to invest in future incomes. In fact, I see very little downside and would even make it explicit policy to reduce the population in a managed way.
@@simon7790 Forgive me for the blunt disagreement. But how exactly would a 40% drop in the UK's population be a good thing except in the most cynical and at the same time most wishful thinking? If the UK lost 27 million people, entire regions would end up depopulated wastelands. Infrastructure requires many and regular points of maintenance and upkeep. People would migrate out of areas where all the elderly had died off without replacement (there are many towns and neighbourhoods where the baby boomers make up anywhere from 25 to 40% of the inhabitants and are crucial to local economies). This would simply put extra strain on the services of high population areas as people fled the countryside and semi-urban areas. Much if not most of the wealth left behind by baby boomers is in the form of houses. Houses with a crashed value due to a massive drop in demand. I am happy to be corrected but I fail to see any benefit to your suggestions. The England of 1945/1950 with its population of 40 million was MUCH younger overall and the population was spread out with the organic growth of the population. Your ideas have all the hallmarks of another social engineering failure like the China 1 child policy. At any rate no hard feelings meant and thank you for the engagement. Keen to see where you think I'm wrong.
@@joshp.2872 I recently attended a conference, where they explained through numbers and projections that the uk is likely to lose something like 80% of its remaining arable land due to climate change, if things keep going like they are now. You talk about housing market and stuff like that. Of course that’s gonna suck. But in the end, you can’t eat money.
@@joshp.2872 there wouldn't be a plague of depopulated areas if the population in cities didn't keep growing ( like cancer). Stop providing the means for urban/capital areas to keep sucking the life out of their nations. Washington DC used to be a sleepy Southern city until the growth of the federal government post WWII. Now tens of thousands of useless government bureaucrats have flooded in and the N. Virginia and Maryland suburbs are full of those fat, overpaid, OVER PENSIONED, maggot. They plus all of the people in businesses getting fat government contracts (military & security state industries) Biggest growth of "McMansions" starting in '90s has been those same suburbs. How is it that a workforce that produces ZERO tangible product have some of the highest household incomes in the entire country. WTF is that about??? Slash ALL levels of government jobs and devolve power back to the periphery
@@deaththekid3998 stop commenting. Your previous comments are just swill. There is NO climate issue. It's a manufactured crisis to justify more totalitarian government actions. No way that human activity is causing anything beyond a mere blip in weather changes. That big blazing hot orb in the sky has more impact due to increased solar activity
I am greek and I can tell you that the saying "the one with one eye is the king among the blind" is definitely not (only) czech at all, and we say it a lot down here. Even 65 year olds would understand you 😂
@@alexpotts6520 I don't know if it shows up anywhere in the Bible, but at the very least it's a reference to a war between the Byzantines and the Bulgarians, where IIRC the Bulgarians surrendered and the Byzantines gouged out their eyes and sent them back home so that they'd never be a problem again. Out of 'mercy', 1 in every 1,000 they only took 1 eye from, so they could lead everybody else back home safely.
Industrialism and globalism is really coming to a head. Hope we can solve these issues; without resorting to mass migrations that could replace and essentially genocide the original inhabitants of developed nations.
It's not industrialism, it's a loss of faith, loss of national pride, loss of family values, loss of appreciation for motherhood, loss of masculinity. And extreme individualism, hedonism, nihilism.
The problem is warmongers and extremists like Bush, Blair, Obama, Biden, etc. Their wars in Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Yemen, Libya, Somalia, etc. haven't just created the largest demographic shift in Europe since WWII, but has increased uncertainty for the entire Europe. People do not plan for the future the same way if the future is uncertain. Don't get me wrong. I don't blame just those few people mentioned. Hundreds of millions Europeans supported the War of Terror. The refugee crisis was of our own making. And there's no end to it as long as we wage wars in the Middle East and Africa. We have already displaced at least 35 million people. And we are creating new refugees every single day as long as our wars continues.
I worry more about an autocratic Europe rising before that happens. You know that happens when it becomes politically acceptable in the developed world to sick illegal migrant boats with the people still in them and enforce border security with mine fields and machine guns.
@@alexpotts6520 i think pro Natalists and anti natalists are blowing this out of proportion. on one end the Anti Natalists are losers, while ironically the pro Natalists have such a low self esteem of themselves that they believe in parenthood, but don't want to commit believing themselves to be incompetant or blame it on economic factors which is nonsense. I believe our birthrate will balance out, the great depression had stagnating birth rates, though it didn't drop, people do reproduce when people are aware. I believe this is a mere cycle that will go away.
Regarding your "Czech saying" at 16:12 (and as a couple of others have commented): it is widespread. The standard form in English is "In the land of the blind, the one-eyed man is king." It is typically attributed to the great Renaissance scholar Desiderius Erasmus. I am sure that in the middle of the twentieth century, it was well-known to educated people in every place that European languages were spoken.
@@kaiserbauch9092 FWIW, my father regarded "Three moves are equivalent to one fire" as his mother's own witticism. At least she used the Spanish version ("Tres mudanzas equivalen a un incendio"), which is gracefully more precise about the kind of move and the kind of fire. I've seen the proverb attributed to Benjamin Franklin by both English- and Spanish-speakers, and he did publish an archaic form (with "remove") in his almanacs), but I suspect he did not originate the thought. Proverbs and folktales often more universal than one might imagine. Then again, I can't find a German equivalent that is at all common.
Listing euthanasia seems odd... There already are countries where it is allowed for terminally ill people, yet even *they* don't seem to be flocking to those facilities (even though they would have a pretty good reason). Turns out, people don't much want to die. Even the ones who complain all the time about life sucking.
Damned if you do and damned if you don't. Yes, economists think we grow forever. But they are wrong. We have been living on an environmental credit card for the last few hundred years. We can't continue forever. Sooner or later, we have to stop or be forced to stop. However, as this guy points out, stopping is expensive.
One thing I'm surprised you didn't mention is remote work and learning. Two of the reasons that birth rates are declining are rising costs of living and a decline in the traditional family structure that would encourage young people to have children. And, working or learning online is something that I think can mitigate these effects. If you look at somewhere like Corsica, there is already almost a complete lack of young people due to the majority of them leaving to the mainland for their education. They also tend to stay there, since there is a lack of job opportunities on the island outside of tourism. The same thing is true in rural areas in the USA where I'm from, too. Many young people want to move to a major metropolitan area like New York, the Bay Area, Los Angeles, or Austin because of work or education. This, of course, massively drives up the cost of living in these areas, especially for housing, discouraging many from having children. It also contributes to the effect of diminishing traditional family structures when children move far away from their parents. It leaves the parents without anybody to take care of them in their old age, and also the children without anybody to take care of their kids or help out around the house. However, with remote work and learning, the issue of education and employment are less severe. I live in a city about an hour outside of New York City, and, during the pandemic, there was a massive influx of New Yorkers, especially those with families. This was due to them not wanting to be quarantined in a small apartment, but also due to the option of remote or hybrid work that doesn't require them to be so close to the office. While prices drove up for us locals, everything was considerably cheaper for the New Yorkers, and they were able to buy houses and eventually settle here. Obviously, people working in the service, manufacturing, and agricultural industries can't do remote work. However, if somebody is able to get a college degree online and get a job working remotely, then they will never be forced to move away from their family to an expensive city. Governments definitely need to do more to promote remote working and learning, because I definitely think it can be a big part of the solution to the demographic crisis.
There is a battle against remote work, because it is destroying commercial real estate values. So many businesses tied their value to it, that they won't tolerate line going down, no matter the cost. The rich must get richer no matter the cost.
@liamwilcox641, yes that is precisely it! Pandemic was an eye opener, and showed that we can use digital tools to perform our daily work outside the constraints of a physical space (at least for the services sector). No doubt that a big part on why people are having fewer children, and thus causing a decline in population, is the rising cost of living. We should rethink how to decouple from major urban areas, and redistribute population over medium/smaller cities. Also, education wise, we should also rethink the need to persue an higher education. Companies are now rather more focused in certain skills rather than a diploma. On the longer run, people could start their lives earlier as oposed to study for many years and further delay starting their lives. This adresses only a small part of the global problem, but would be already a starter!
We are too poor for children lol. And before someone mentions Africa - in developed countries children don’t contribute to household for almost 20 years. I am slowly approaching my 30s - I am still saving money to get a house. Unfortunately prices are going up faster than I can save. And I am not risking renting with kids - not when landlords can raise prices as much as they want. If I will be homeless - at least I will be homeless without a child. Millennials & Z are screwed - since we joined workforce everything is getting worse year by year. We have no break to even think about family - we are focused on survival.
I call this being aware In my country, people do not contribute to the household's income, yet many are still having +3 kids while being poor and still renting, it's really just a problem in the west cause westerners care much about giving their kids a good standard of living
The whole final part of the video from 39:52 onwards encapsulates my feelings perfectly. This is the first video i have watched from your channel, but it certainly won't be the last. Thank you :)
Thank you for these videos. I wrote my Economics dissertation on this topic, and it marvels me how people in the West consider climate change an existential threat but have zero awareness of this. The West is already on the decline, and give it 100 or so years, Western Europe will fall, that I’m sure. America is better off as it’s natural birth rates are better, and more importantly, it’s immigrants are mostly Latin American Catholics compared to MENA Muslims in Europe, the latter obviously is the worst group possible for integration into a Western culture and society (well, Pakistani Muslims are worse but only the UK has them and they’re balanced out here by Hindus and Sikhs who integrate with very little to no problems, and respect British culture/values, least in my experience).
Pakistani Muslims have integrated well in the USA...consider the Desi population in Houston, very well-educated, productive members of that community. I think the dynamics of cultural assimilation--as well as the socio-economic group of the immigrants--are more important that the country and religion of origin.
@truthseeker4470 They integrate well when they are very small minorities in the country. When they grow in size then a crabs in a bucket pressure to be true Muslims and true Pakistanis prevents integration. It helps that flying back to Pakistan from America is probably excessively expensive - UK ones regularly fly back and doing so reinforces their old ways.
@@jgw9990 It’s more the type of Pakistani’s in America vs UK. The British Pakistanis immigrated mostly in the 50s-90s and came from rural, ultra conservative villages in the countryside. They were poor and very backwards areas. I read a recent news story about one such village, a Mullah (preacher) was preaching to a crowd and asked people to raise hands on various questions, one such was that ‘was the prophet Muhammed wrong’ and a boy by accident raised his hand. He was accused of blasphemy and had to run to not be beaten, he was 14. And worse, he was so ashamed and scared that he went to some farming equipment, cut off the hand that he raised (in blasphemy apparently) then went back with his stump and used his remaining hand to give his cut off hand to the Mullah, as recompense and atonement for his accidental blasphemy. He was then lauded and applauded by the Muslims there, search the story up, these are the type of immigrants the UK had. Meanwhile, the US allows only the college educated, upper class Pakistanis. These tend to be less fanatical, less conservative, more liberal and secular minded, and for sure, more open to western values. Pakistani society is diverse, and if you pick the most conservative and backwards society of society (rural farm worker form a backwards village) vs the most secular and liberal section (educated engineer from a liberal or moderate family), you’ll obviously get very different results. In this matter, America did well for itself, and the UK couldn’t be more stupid.
I'm surprised YT even allowed this comment to stay up and be visible to others. Probably because you've been careful in the past and haven't had your account blacklisted
It is unfair that a woman who devoted herself to her 4-5 children may experience need in old age, while another who has made a choice in favor of a career will buy herself a villa in Italy or Spain. Therefore, I propose a rather radical plan: lifetime payments for each child.
Try to do that in countries like Greece. People barely afford to sustain themselves... The villa thing is a result of uncontrolled capitalism. We kinda deserve it since we allowed it to flourish for so many years.
@@Snakebloke it could be done as tax transfer. Part of their taxed income returns to their parents. So you are motivated to rise skilled workers and patriots to stay in your country
There's a better way; free/public kindergarden, affordable places for creative activities for children, and benefits to parents. I think your suggestion generates more "guilty" feelings for children who did not ask to be born after all
great replacement is a conspiracy theory the reason for the fertility decline in the west is not caused by anyone its a natural process every country in the world is going through sooner or later the fertility rate of muslims and africans will equal out with westerners and maybe even lower than westerners n fact many muslim countries fertility is declining rapidly and the country of Turkey has similar fertility rates to france
Yes, most people agree we're screwed. One of the things that preppers quickly learn is that you can prepare for a lot of different doomsday scenarios by doing exactly the same things. Maybe we should set aside the question of WHY we're screwed, and get together on the issue of what we can do to mitigate it, like increasing self-reliance and resiliency, fortifying local governments against collapse of higher-scale governments, and investing in long-term infrastructure while we still can.
THAT IS NOT THE PROBLEM, HIGH HOUSING COST, SO NOW IT IS TO EXPENSIVE TO HAVE OVER 1 CHILED IF AT ALL, PEOPLE NOW WANT NICE HOUSES, NICE CARS, AND NICE VACATIONS, HAVING CHILDREN PREVENTS THIS
@@kaiserbauch9092 lol. Dry beans are cheaper, lighter, and survive longer. Although if you can learn how to melt down the cans and make stuff, the value of the metal might tip the scales.
I`m from Poland and we already see the effects of destroyed democracy by demography. If you go to the street, to the university or to the job, you will find pretty no-one voting for the current ruling party (PIS). But, at the end, they have about 35% of votes, which gives them in our system 100% of decisive power. The remaining 65% is split into 3-5 smaller parties from left to right, so the privilege to create a government is on the PiS side. So the question is always - who is voting for them? So if you take a look, the majority of voters are from people in age over 55. So we are now in election campaign and what are the main points from PiS? Additional pensions (13 i 14, instead of 12 per year) and reduction of retirement age. But shortly after their 1st election in 2015, they already reduced once retirement age. We have no hope...
raise the retirement age to 80 make it +5 years per less kid and 100 for the childless. Make early retirement treason its time to overthrow the elderly. The old must be overthrown for the benefit of the young
@@neocortex8198 Paradoxically this will happen anyway. The countries with such political system & demography like mine will be affected by huge emigration of skilled working population, because no-one will give half of the salary to current the pensioners. The shrinking working population will be required to pay even more, so there will be even more pressure to emigrate. Those countries, where the demographic structure is not so tragic like in mine, with more stable political system, where takeover just by elder population is not possible, will be winners. The elders can change the law, but they cant force workers to work for them.
@@ukasz6310 Romania had that problem but fixed it by getting tens of thousands of workers from India Sri Lanka Nepal and Pakistan It's estimated that their numbers will reach 200000 by 2030 Poland is accused of giving tens of thousands of visas to people from the middle east and south Asia recently
@@baha3alshamari152 haha yes. Paradoxically, the most anti-immigrant, far-right and nationalist government in our modern history brought over 100k immigrants from Asia and former-USSR countries, without mentioning it to the native population, they were even attacking immigration and multiculturalism parallel, showing riots in Paris, Germany etc. But I'm not sure if Poland is really attractive to such immigrants long-term, if they can move to western europe with better social benefits just 500 km further. The war in Ukraine was also a massive trigger for immigration. I barely recognize my country after those 2 years, even if I open window in my house i hear russian/ukrainian? language all the day long - according to the statistics my city was the 3rd target for Ukrainians to look for new home. It was not case earlier - it just happend over last 2-3 years, and Poland was extremally monoethnic country. But this immigration brings another problems - huge gender imbalance. The immigration from Ukraine was mostly woman, but the rest of immigration are normally mostly young males with low social status. So this is a trigger for known issues too.
The only people who can carry out pregnancies in most countries are women but in the west they care more about killing babies. If you want birth rates you need to bring back patriarchy
Think about how people instantly stopped caring about plastic waste when COVID hit (over 1,600,000,000 disposable masks got dumped in the ocean just in 2020). When things really start to decline, carbon footprints will be the last thing on anyone’s mind. I’m going to start a lions mane mushroom farm and sell them to the elderly for their taste and neuro-protective effects.
How will Europe deal with massive Islamic migration? As number of radical Muslims grows the country destabilizes. i speak from experience since I am from India which has massive problem with Islamic jihadis
They won't, the western elite believe everyone is the same and they can use immigration to bring in a serf class, the reality is a repeat of what happened to Anatolia, 1000 years ago it was Greek now it is Turkey. Unfortunately many Indian nationalists seem to mostly enjoy the shoe being on the other foot rather than offering solidarity. Internally Europe is very weak, Christianity is almost extinct and the liberal ideologies don't even understand religious motivation and thin the Muslims are allies because they also want to deconstruct western civilisation. Here in Britain the government sides with them against the population, look up Rotherham, what happens is not fit for the youtube bots.
@@vorynrosethorn903 What happened in Anatolia was a thousand years ago when war was the norm and where atrocities happened constantly. Immigration is a lot more different then conquering land through war. Christianity is basically dead in the UK though and the English population is killing themselves with all the abortions they have + being majority liberals. I am a British Muslim myself and without us, the demographic situation would be a lot worse however immigration is just a temporary fix. You are right, we are not liberal allies. I hate it when we are coupled with those degenerates. It should be the remaining Christians in the UK teaming up with the Muslims to solve this problem.
There is no way out of this that doesn't end with a very big chunk of the population (specially the elderly population) getting really, really, really fucked
28:14 It amazes me how few innovations come out of India. Indians aren't exactly dumb people, but since independence the Indian government has essentially sabotaged their success and is still doing so. There's 0 investment in primary education, all of India's educational spending goes into universities and most university-educated Indians immigrate to the United States. This essentially means that Indian tax payers pay for their own poverty and for America to become richer. China became successful because they spent a lot on primary and secondary education, even people who didn't go into universities were intelligent enough to make successful business and continue learning. India just ignored the bottom 99% of its population because only the elites mattered.
@@TrueNativeScot Somehow the highest IQ countries aren't white, either. I love laughing about the numbers from Hong Kong, Japan, South Korea, and SIngapore. They are clustered near the top.
@-haclong2366 India is a hell of a complicated and intriguing country. Many people always ask me if I will do a demographic deepdive of India, but I would need to study it for years to be able to do so. There are like 500 ethnic groups and 354 religious groups :D
I cant wait to hear what you have to say about 30 year old women who remain unmarried in the west and in the east because the blackpill seems correct to me
We need a revolution against the elderly honestly my solution is simple. Treason for anyone who retires under 80 (with 3 kids), 85 for 2 kids, 90 for 1 kid and 100 for no kids
North Korea might just win the Korean war. Remember the war is not over, and with South Korea dying out, in the end their ideology will prove itself correct through conquest. Even though we thought South Korea’s ideology superior because of the poverty of north korea, south korea’s ideology led to its death.
Interesting thought. I think that socialism is the disease that brings death to a society, feminism too... And the west had taken way too high doses of both... And yes, south korea is westernized... Funny to think that the dose of feminism/socialism/hedonism applied to the western world is so high that it brings the downfall of society to such a level that even low level subsistence socialism is better than it (better at keeping society at lowkey functioning that is, i didnt said that is enjoyable to the NK peasant)...
Surprisingly, just today there was a post on Korea's sabreddit about this topic, and judging by the comments, Koreans don't seem to care about it and are complaining about their petty problems like "evil corporations". Life will teach them a very harsh lesson in the future...
The melting point of that argument might come up in 40 years. The question is, will the North Korean regime survive more years under this system?, we all know South Korea will collapse but it won't collapse now
"Their ideology will prove itself correct through conquest." Even if it happened (which seemed fanciful), it wouldn't tell us anything about whether juche is "correct". The morality or truth of an idea is completely independent from its ability to spread itself.
It isn't leading to doom, but rather, an evolution backwards. The current problem caused by not 1,2,3,4 factor, but a combination of those. Equal rights, pregnancy prevention means, strife to be at the upper half of the food chain, disrespect for not reaching such and, funnily enough, the ever-increasing cost of just living due to failed policies and a demographic crisis itself. If you want to continue with those factors taking place, you need quite literally human farms. Maybe cloning, maybe government hiring women to get pregnant up to 6 times in their lifespan. The other "solution" is a economic and/or moral collapse. Extreme policies like banning rubber/pills/abortion, demolishing equal rights, reintroducing slavery, sneakily killing off elderly and such. There are a lot of "solutions" that won't go well with a modern human right now. The reason why the humanity "boomed" after WW2 was a dire need to reproduce combined with poverty and a sudden jump in quality of healthcare. It was one-time opportunity of an old mindset met with a new conditions. In the past, your children would flip a coin to decide if they would live on or die, they also were an actual source of income for their parents too, or at least not a total burden. Modern children are just an expensive pets and combined with some countries' conditions they are something you cannot afford and so your mindset doesn't allow it. There's also less time to find a partner, less time to make a baby with that said partner and, as a result, you can become "too old" to have a second child or even a first one. And rich countries wouldn't be able to avoid the collapse. In fact, something like US is likely to fall from much higher window than Putin's "friends" because of the overspending. US economy as for now only exists because other countries needs it to exist in order to sustain themselves. If you're collapsing anyway, there's no need to continue supporting that since it is only prolonging your suffering - you would rather undergo a sudden shock which, hopefully, gives a birth to a new functioning system that is likely to operate on much lower scale. On top of that, if something like Poland would start a swift collapse - people would migrate at large numbers, likely to that said US, Germany or Canada. No country right now other than Russia (resources and land is the only thing it has) would be able to sustain a flow of 10s millions per year, if not 1/2 or 1/4 of a year. They would be met with a pile of problems starting from extreme increase in food/water prices and even a basic lack of living space. Then, they would face a "Tower of Babel's" problem with a large amount of unintegrated people. Once again, the true doom comes not just from one or two problems, but a combination of them happening at the same time and a thing they're giving a birth to. But the people in governments are not that stupid - if they sense the collapse, they would be willing to conduct an extreme measure to prevent it, unless they're fanatics of their own agenda.
I think we are living through your "Tower of Babel" paragraph right now in the west. It is becoming increasingly difficult to have a society when everyone interprets reality and rules their own way. Also agree with the other part, some extreme unfriendly decissions will have to be met to increase fertility.
Great insight! An addition to your last paragraph. Read abiut the "accelerationism" concept, and how the huperrich and the politicians might know that collapse is inevitable, and are doing seemingly stupid things in order to make it happen sooner
Amazing work brother. I wonder if you’d consider making a video dedicated to understanding the specifics of the French case. In 1830, France was the first ever industrial nation to enter the demographic transition. Now, it is the last of them to enter demographic collapse. Seems like a fascinating case study!
Everywhere is declining, not the developed world alone. Africa will increase but it too will decline after midcentury. It is a function of wealth, education and technology. I think the more interesting question is when and why will population decline level off.
Before population declines it will keep up increasing and we may be 20 billions in a century. Of course with such a terrifying mass of people the earth would be completely destroyed so let's hope it won't happen
Africa isn’t not decling mid century. It actually will quadruple by end of the century up to 4-5 billion not including Africans dispersed in America, South America , europe and Haiti and the islands
@@mizzmini45 - UN says 4.2bn but they always overestimate. Which means African population will level and start declining sometime in the second half of the century.
@@mizzmini45 If you look at the birth rates they've been consistently going down but ofc they are still high now so the population will increase. I'm sure life expectancy is also increase which also means population increase overall.
Basically, the century will end in a dark age, a severe loss in education leading to inability to maintain tech all circling down until you are left with something akin to early industrial period
Fix housing market then problem will solve itself. He said that over the last decade fertility is becoming a worldwide issue - and he failed to mention skyrocketing housing costs in all developed countries… THE ONES THAT ARE AFFECTED THE MOST… It’s ridiculously obvious - but 0.1% doesn’t like to speak about it. We own nothing, but apparently we are not happy.
The problem with the focus on climate action (the extreme type) is that these people essentially want to put all efforts to resolve an hypothetical crisis down the road with solutions that will cause very real and deep problems RIGHT NOW. Either way, there is no good straightforward solution.
SORRY, CLMATE CHANGE IS NOT HYPOTHETICAL, IT IS NOT TO BE DEBATED ANYMORE, THE SCIENCE IS SETTLED, MASSIVE FLOODS ALREADY HAPPENING ACCROSS THE WORLD, SCOTLAND NOW HAS MASSIVE FLOODS TODAY,
This is a topic I have been thinking a lot about lately. The thing I have been considering the most is the question of why people aren't having more children. There is the easy answer of birth control, but that only begs the question of why are people choosing so few (or none)? I could see why you might not want 12+ children, but why is three or four or five not a common number? For most families in 1800 your children were a nominal burden for maybe six or seven years. But at some point they are able to begin helping with chores around the house or on the farm, and by early teens are quite competent in these things, and often would be off starting their own families by late teens or early 20s. Nowadays children are more than a nominal burden, and remain so for most of two decades. It is not possible for most to afford even one without two incomes due to the inflation of real estate and deflation of labor value. It is not possible to contribute to society at a meaningful level without at least 12 years of education, and if you really want to have a chance then it will be even higher. Then add the cost of child care, the expenses and commitments placed on parents for extra-curricular activities, and the ever increasing baseline of what material possessions are required just to be considered average in developed societies, and probably a dozen or more other things. The good life in the past was to have a large family and solid social support network. This is largely dead in many places. Now the choice is between the modern good life, or poverty. By the standards of materialism we are more wealthy than we have ever been, but from the traditional standards of family we are at the poorest point in human history. The difference in perspective is just a matter of values. It will be interesting to see how this all settles out in a century or two, but I won't be around to see it.
ONCE PEOPLE LEFT THE FARM YOU NO LONGER NEEDED CHILDREN WORKERS, IN THE CITY IS NOW TO EXPENSIVE TO HAVE MORE THEN 1 CHILD IF AT ALL, HIGH RENTS, HIGH FOOD PRICES, ETC
Children are more of a burden then they are in the past. I do not want to go back to classical or even Victorian Era child labour scenarios; for the alarmist individual who might proceed to read this in bad faith. But just have a big think about the way westernised societies are structured for children: - They aren't allowed to enter the labour market until late teens, and usually with a ton of added restrictions. In a system where contribution through taxation and labour is everything (READ: I'm not a capitalist, I do not like the system we are in, but I recognize it for what it is), that means for several years the child's contribution is effectively stagnant until they become of working age. - They spend most of their early life consuming, and at a rate that requires high replacement of consumable goods. Clothes, food, educational materials, healthcare items, hygiene items are the fundamentals for a well-raised child, well nourished as well thus preventing poor nutrition diseases like rickets etc, not factoring in child-specific luxury goods like toys, hobbies and other fashion goods. And these are bought in larger quantities over a child's lifetime until they become of age. Add a cost of living crisis and you have a deep problem, a real increase of spending every 6 - 12 months in a child's life that adds up exponentially. - Education was emphasized during the late turn of the Millennium as the preferred route in western countries. There is even more time where a person is not potentially contributing to their full capacity until they achieve their undergraduate or post-graduate. And if they fail to put that degree to use, then they fail to contribute directly in the way that they were intended to contribute by specializing. - Stigmatization of parents and the high standards that society expects of them. You cannot discipline your child physically (in my opinion, there is a scale of acceptability, but complete absence of discipline means its difficult to actually keep your children from causing problems in your own delicate family life), you cannot use your children to care for your younger children (this was common for post-war Britain as an example), you cannot take your children to work to see how you work and try to learn skills themselves, which leaves you only to give theoretical examples to the child of how they should operate. There are of course, REAL examples of abusive parents, but the fear of the system taking your children means that some people are scared of raising children WRONG, therefore, they don't do it. Think about common responses you hear about people not having kids, reductive ones. "Children are expensive.", "Children are a pain.", "I don't think I can raise a child right." The above explanations underpin those anxieties. Western society values children but glorifies the positives without understanding the intrinsic costs. It is a gamble to raise children now, and you get nothing back for it until they are 18. And even then, many of the children who came from a generation where these problems started happening (like myself), still live with their parents or are dependent on their parents.
Indian here, yes we are overly populated country, but fertility rates have fallen and continue to fall. Out of 28 Indian states/provinces only 3 have TFR above 2.1 i.e. replacement level TFR, rest 25 have TFR between1.5 and 1.9. Urban fertility rates have fallen below 1.5 and even in rural areas TFR is below 2.0. In certain metropolitan areas like New Delhi, Chandigad, Mumbai , Kolkata etc TFR is even as low as 1.1 to 1.3- Kids are expensive, schooling, rents, healthcare is costly and most of Indians have little social security net that means families think twice before giving birth to a child. Thanks to better education to women and their participation in employment, women are marrying later in life and having kids even later, now this means that the fertile years of women are reduced. Let me give anecdotal evidence, me coming from western India our TFR is 1.7 and falling, in our building we have 40 flats and when I was little most families had 2 kids some rarely had 3 , now 25 years later most families have 1 kid and some have 2 kids. In our family my grandpa generation had 4 kids, but my fathers generation had either 2 or 1 children only. I am yet to see a family in my neighbourhood with 3 kids, agreed I have not seen each and every family but when I go out to walk I see only max 2 kids or less. Yes anecdotal evidence but official statistics by Census bureau of India validates my observation. At 34:20 you show projected population of India in 2100 as 1.5 Billion, in my opinion the population will go even lower than that by 2100 as we get developed and richer people wont be motivated to have children, we are experiencing now what Europe experienced in 1980's or 1970's. Certain demographics like Muslims of India are still having more kids than Hindus and Christians and Buddhists and Sikhs, but even they are slowing down but a slower rate. I am happy about this population decline, less people less problems, lesser stress on infrastructure and lesser harm to environment. Some people think well huge population is advantage I dont know why is that the case, we need skilled and quality workforce not unskilled less qualified population that we have now, Switzerland with its miniscule population has far more economic impact on world than India or Nigeria. In future AI, Robotics, Automation will take away low skilled jobs, even low end white collar jobs like Coding and Software testing in which Indian companies have earned their name might go obsolete due to stuff like ChatGPT. BPO and Call center jobs might be automated by Chat Bots and AI, then what our semi skilled workforce going to do? Hence I think moderate skilled population is far better than humongous unskilled untrained population whose contributions are mediocre at best. In most equations like GDP, Per Capita Income, population is in denominator and if that denominator is significantly reduced then even with same numerator, we will improve on most metrics. Sorry for a long rant, but I wish to see India which is less populated and people enjoy a clean and healthy life. Overpopulation is a bane and I am somewhat happy that India's population is on a downward slope. Peace!
Amazing, how you have put and articulated so well all the things about demographics and its global impact. It seriously not discussed enough anywhere. You have done amazing work in putting this info. Next generation is not ready for this.
I strongly suspect fertility rate in Paraguay is under 2.1. Their 2022 census came with 1.4 million less people than expected, in a country of 6.1m people, that's massive (should have been 7.5m)! It is not just emigration either, it is poorly done projections from the 2002 census since the 2012 census was also bad. They estimated a fertility rate (2.5) which is probably much higher than the real one (we'll know when the final data of their census is released). Point in question: fertility might well be falling faster than estimated in countries with poor measurements.
@@kaiserbauch9092 You should do a video on Latin America too. It was seen by the west in the 70s and 80s to be a 2nd Africa when it came to demographics and civil conflict, but it is narrowing the gap with the west in demographics very fast... At least Brazil, Colombia and Uruguay are. Argentina and Central America are in a better place. We can only hope our economies catch up too or we will have a lot of problems in the future, like a second eastern europe, with aging populations but only mildly rich.
If Europe wants to insist that immigration is the only solution to its population aging problem, then they should revise its immigration laws by only allowing people from the developing countries with higher TFR like Latin American countries and the Philippines to come into Europe because they are Christians that can be easily assimilated to European society, unlike Arab and Sub-Saharan African Muslims.
It's true that Filipinos assimilate fairly well, but even our TFR dropped below 2.1 in the past few years. The point will come where we will also not be a sustainable source of immigration, so the only real solution for European states is to address the fertility problem. Besides, most potential Filipino immigrants will not be willing to learn French, Spanish or another European language when the Anglophone countries just have a better deal for migrants, economically speaking.
It's so sad that this is happening, and wouldn't have taken a lot to prevent this. I mean, the fertility rate only needs to be 2.1 for a population to be stable, and a lot of people have 4, 5, or 6 kids! I grew up in a family of 6 kids. People just postpone having kids until it's too late, because the culture has told them that they need to focus on work or traveling or something like that, and then people discover it's too late to have kids in your mid 30s!
How would it not take a lot to change this? How would you do it? Force people to have children? As he mentioned in the video keeping the 2.1 ratio would only result in an even higher world population and even more dire problems from consumption. I think the best we can do is lowering the population in a controlled way, which unfortunately means removing the older population.
It doesn’t take much to avoid this! You have to just force every women to be straight, want children, and want upwards of two or three children. That takes a significant amount, you’d have to have an abnormally religious population and proper immigration to fix this and sadly, developed nations aside from the U.S don’t have that.
@@Rakhtor overpopulation is a myth, it was disproven many many times. Besides this 0.1 is not to increase population but to maintain it for those who for many reasons like: disease, injury, genetics etc etc couldn't get children at all.
Also there are more people today that go to universities, and many even go to study at masters (and PhD) levels. And this means that they inevitably start earning money at the age of 26, instead at 18. When will they make children then?
I've been thinking there could be a link between rising house prices globally and the population aging. Given that most people have the most saved money in their lives after 55 when statistically their last kid leaves home and that right now the biggest generations ever are retiring (future ones will probably be bigger as a share of younger generations) in the richest world we've ever had, you could have an army of people that wouldn't wanna pay rent in their olden days. This means that if you're a young person in the future unless you have rich parents there is no way you can climb up in the income ladder. This could spell a fertile ground for a racial conflict between haves-Local-whites-kids_in_Europe and have-nots-immigrant-descendants-from-the-Middle-East, considering that the latter group might have to slave away trying to afford a small box where to live.
@@alexpotts6520 in many places around the world there is a huge share empty dwellings. If they can‘t find occupants with money NOW what makes you think prices will fall if we build more of the same? It‘s the intrinsic value of a house in the context of this cash flooded generation that is retiring now that is to blame.
@@slavchomarinov9909 The places with empty houses are the likes of Eastern Europe, where a combination of low birth rates and emigration has caused populations to fall. Where houses are lying empty, it's not because they're too expensive but because there just aren't enough people to live in them all. Indeed, in such places housing tends to be pretty cheap, whereas in places where there's a shortage of housing it's completely unaffordable. Supply and demand, innit?
@@alexpotts6520 yeah.....I think China tried that.....they have HUNDREDS OF MILLIONS of apartments built purely on speculation and as one of the few "investment" strategies allowed by CCP. *THEY ARE EMPTY* YT is full of demolition vids showing a dozen, 20+ floor apartment blocks. Crap quality and only a few years old
Japan has a large Government debt, true, but the private sector has a huge surplus, overall Japan is the largest creditor nation in the world with a net surplus of 3.3 trillion. The EU might have a large export by volume but they have a 400 bn deficit with China, overall the dependence on exports is minimal, everything we import from China could be made in Europe.
@@willyhill7509 hmm.. you said "imports" so i thought "imports". Weird, i know. Anyway, in the EV manufacturing space China has some advantages over the EU.
@@willyhill7509it CAN be produced in Germany sure. But German wages are too high - any produced item would be too expensive for sale, and Germany don't have enough workers to replace all the Chinese.
There are 26 countries in the EU, not just Germany. We have 2 choices make things in Europe or borrow money to buy things from China, the less we produce ourselves the more we get into debt and the richer China becomes. In the long term we will be bankrupt and China will own the whole world. You might think goods made in China are cheaper, in the short term to medium term yes they are but in the long term it is much dearer because we are outsourcing wealth creation and getting poorer.
The 2020 Brazilian Census results showed that the previous population projection was over estimated in 15 million, at 203 million only instead 218 million. That is probably not only an error in the calculus but also effect of the immigration that have not been accounted since 2010 when Brazil still holded a significant growing economy. After 2012 financial crises in Brasil the amount of people emmigrating rose significantly.
The error was of 12m and the estimation had been 215m, if I'm not mistaken (population count was 203m as you said). The largest estimates of emigration I have seen were of 4m, plus we had covid causing maybe an extra 1m deaths, so we can guesstimate the number of births was 7ish million less than expected. It's a lot (20%+ less than expected) and it's concerning because we already had a low fertility in 2010, but surely it was hit harder than expected due to the economic crisis too (in Argentina the rate plummeted after their 2015 crisis).
UN predictions were/are still 218 million. Also the number of Brazilians living abroad do not match with the number claimed by the countries. US alone claim to have 1.7 million Brazilians residents. My guess is that we are around 8-11 million abroad.
@@WilliamSantos-cv8rr I was talking about national predictions which use the best available data, updating for falling fertility over thee years and more closely tracking reality. I don't know this UN estimate of 218m you refer to. Anyway 8m Brazilian overseas is unlikely, but that'd a stock anyway, I'm talking of flow in the last 10 years, which adds to the stock but doesn't mean it. These embassy numbers are known to be overestiimations and of course they count Brazilians descendants. I doubt there are 8m Brazilians overseas as the largest communities are the one in the US, Portugal (0.5-1m) and then the others (Japan, Paraguay etc) all have well below half a million. At most I suspect there are 5-6m Brazilians + immediate descendants overseas. Also, to be honest I don't believe 4m people left the country in the last 12 years (we can't find that growth in the numbers of brazilians overseas like Portugal and Japan, let alone Paraguay). If I had to throw a guesstimate, I'd say there are 5-6m Brazilians and descendants overseas, 1.5-2m which left in the last 12 years.
The estimations by UN were given by Brazil agencies mid 2010s. The Brazilian goverment "changed" it for 215 M in 2020 for the Census, then they chagee it to 208-7 M during the census and finally got the real number or 203. But if you travel around any city over a Million habitants in developed world you will find a sizable Brazilian community. Actually, you can find a decent amount of Brazilians anywhere, Egypt, Turkey, Angola, Gabon, Nigeria, Indonesia, etc. I myself was counted in Brazil till the census, but been living in Australia for 7 years.
@@WilliamSantos-cv8rrThere's not sizeable Brazilian communities everywhere in the world. A few hundred people in a few major cities may feel like a lot for someone in the bubble but it doesn't make a dent demographically speaking. Basically, where are the hundreds of thousands? The mass migration? Even 5-6m as I claimed is a gigantic number, and where are these people? There isn't enough large communities of Brazilians overseas to account for that... Emigration from Brazil, if it were at the numbers you are talking about, would be closer to twice the number of Moroccans outside of that country. Barred polish-Americans, you are claiming there are as many Brazilians overseas as poles and polish descendents. But where? Not half of people living in Portugal are Brazilian, and yet it's the second community overseas. Giving the same numbers for Brazil and countries like Morocco and Poland is not credible, given the sources we have.
I think cloning with lead to molecular degradation. You'd end up with defects like less pigment while global UV radiation picks up, lighter more fragile bones, and unforseen consequences like the clones thinking they're a separate species and should thus enslave you out of superiority. Genetic diversity is powerful but if everyone shares genes 1 bad virus or mutation would be catastrophic.
What's stopping other cultures from using this said technology? Some cultures have more offsprings than others. Even if you have human clones roaming the earth, how are they going to cope with rising costs, inflations, and debts? You're only putting a small bandaid on a big wound.
I will admit; I was a bit worried about the video when I first clicked, especially because of a few of the top comments, but I find myself humbled and intrigued by your wide-reaching and inclusive, yet firmly ideaological, viewpoints on this future crisis. You are an excellent orator and researcher. I think you’d find a lot of similarity in your studies and what Nate Hagens, a U.S. based environmental economist, has been saying through his studies. His thesis calls for a “Great Simplification” where most of the world will be forced to convert to a much more humble lifestyle. His arguments are mostly based in the limit of natural resources, but I believe you’ve found evidence that certainly supports the same conclusion. Excellent work. Excited to see more and continue the discussion; this is the sort of thing that needs to be a major point of modern policy decisions.
The question is, can current generations sacrifice their comfort and short term gains for benefit of the future. Sadly, most of the time, they are not.
These are official figures. I tend to believe that the actual population across the board is already substantially lower. One of the reasons I tend to believe this to be the case is this. I have traveled far and wide and I always keep coming to the same conclusion. This world is scaringly underpopulated especially when one gets out of the towns and cities. You can drive around even countries like the UK, France, Germany and Spain, and hardly see anyone outside a car all day, with many miles of open countryside in all directions. However, when you do the same in countries like India, Russia, America, Canada, Mexico, Poland, Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria, Sweden, Columbia, Brazil, Argentina, Finland, Norway, and African ones etc etc etc, you hardly see any cars and the people are even harder to find. When one looks at the map and notices that the nearest adjacent road is well over 100 miles if not 3 or more hundreds of miles away and the next tiny village also, and this with no more than a couple of hundred people living there then you suddenly realize that the reason why you can't see many or any people is that there are none to be seen. Vast, and I mean really vast areas of this world have no inhabitants whatsoever, while other vast areas have hardly any inhabitants. In Russia and parts of Eastern Europe, you can drive through what once were clearly fare-sized towns that are now all but completely uninhabited and have clearly been this way for at least a few decades. Rural China has many of these kinds of places, indeed rural China often gives the impression that virtually everyone has mysteriously died of The Black Death, leaving only a few sad people in their 80s to fend for themselves. If you get off of the major highways in Georgia for example there is nothing but mile after mile of dense forests, the exact same thing as if you had stayed on them. I seriously wondered how The Union and Confederate armies ever managed to find each other without a sat nav. America has far less densely populated states than Georgia with a relatively respectable 71.9 per square mile, It has Wyoming with 5.9, Montana with 2.9, and Alaska with 1.3. While as we know nearly all of these lonely people live in relatively very tiny parts of their massively enormous states. You can be in Calcutta surrounded by humanity to the point of almost panic, but drive just a few miles out of town and there is hardly any human life to be seen in any direction however good your eyesight may be. Even Downtown Orlando can resemble a ghost town until one nervously ventures into a bar or restaurant. If it is not near the road selling something then where is it? It isn't, is the answer. Somehow someone managed to persuade us that there are far too many people. How they managed to do this is worth a volume or two. But I could not disagree more. By any objective measure, humanity is already an endangered species and already going effectively extinct at an exponential rate. I have many other reasons to believe that all countries have been deliberately overstating their own populations for many decades, not just China, but all of them. This situation has become so critical in countries like the UK that our government is actively admitting anyone willing to come to the UK mainly so that the British people don't so well notice that they have actually been going extinct since the early 1970s. They will of course give you many and various reasons why people are not having anywhere near enough children and most of them are perfectly valid to an extent. However, what they won't tell you is the real reason why people from the third or developing world especially, are also not producing anywhere near enough children. They won't tell you, because they know you won't like it, to say the least. Indeed some may decide to slowly part the perputrator's dermis from the rest of their bodies and throw the remains to the ravenous birds of the air or the devowing beasts of the field. Indeed apparently this has already happened in some parts of Africa. Pakistan, South America, and India, although don't expect that to be on the BBC 9pm News.
@@willhelmi2095 I can't do anything. This relies on local officials to keep correct records. In nearly all countries central government subsidies and other benefits are determined by the reported population figures so there is inevitably an incentive for local and national governments to over-inflate their own population figures. The level of corruption can vary, but it can run into hundreds of millions of people as was and still is the case in China. The CCP has recently admitted to having overestimated its own population, by around 170 million people under the age of 35. Another problem is families claiming benefits for children that do not exist in Western countries. Estimates vary, but this can account for up to 200,000 children. As one might imagine a population that has notably fewer children will experience a large knock-on effect later on.
@@garypowell1540like in italy, if you go in basilicata, there is literally nobody, 530k for 10k km2, , majority of people lives in 2 cities, in 2019 they were 560k Or also Abruzzo
And added to your near perfect analysis, people generally count immigration as a patch for the tax loss. Yet the developed world immigrates from one to the other developed country, thus it is a closed system. Yet immigration to the developed world comes from the undeveloped world, which in time will bring huge crisises and changes. Much bigger than what we already seen. A civil war or take over in a European by the Muslim immigrants? Why not in 50 years when the locals will be too old or too few to prevent a take over by the much younger and plenty immigrants. Even a small demo on the subject will hurt the fragile economy much faster than everybody got old, there are so few children anymore etc. Long before the actual event, the economy will be shaken. There is no need to see the end game, the way is already destructive.
I always thought Iranians are alone in their thinking. They're the black sheep of the Mid East, and they're not like Western libs either. It's exciting to see that the ideas you're expressing are exactly what people over here think.
@@EconGun I've seen their women's rights groups as well. The ones protesting Iran's government and philosophy. They don't realize they're sabotaging their own cause. All they do is complain on social media, they act snobbish, and they waste their energy throwing punches at their own inner circle. Instead of the patriarchy they talk about so much. That's why Iran's government can put down this stuff so easily. Because they don't put any effort into making their own situation better. They're just nit-picky about details. And Iranian police can just walk right in to end it. -Kurdish women are a different story, because they actually are goal-oriented. They didn't harp about ISIS on social media. They actually went out and helped in the war effort. And we see the same thing with Ukrainian women as well. That's what a real independent woman is supposed to be like.
@@eksbocks9438 What you’re talking about is a tiny minority of Iranian women. But Western media likes to focus on that because it promotes their narrative. Everybody over here is complaining that there's something wrong with the algorithms, because our voice isn't reflected. Only select pictures and posts that appeal to the Wes left.
Raise retirement age for childless people by 7 years ...we can't have peoples children whose parents sacrificed so much to raise them being burdened by people who contributed nothing to raise them
I find it somewhat ironic that we talk so much about the climate problem, and have overpopulation with this debate, while the future's decidedly greatest challenge and frightening perspective is not the prospect of about half a meter higher water level in the world's seas, but rather the prospect of empty cradles kindergartens and schools in the future. yes, ironically, this Mark Twain quote was used in the movie "an inconvenient truth", "It ain't what you don't know that gets you into trouble. It's what you know for sure that just ain't so. ” - Mark Twain after all, the debate about overpopulation still characterizes the debate, while you simply do not have the ability with your Malthunism and see that small generations that give birth to smaller generations are the way to a world with permanent degrowth, yes, ironically enough, the battlefields that we see in ukraine now, there will spread like in the abandoned nuclear power plant chernobyl a wasteland that will eventually go from the extreme temperate siberia to central europe deep into china, and down in southern Europe. as we lose population base. to be able to keep the land cultivated. we are talking loosely about a water rise in the world's oceans of 0.36 centimeters per year. which may reach 0.55 cm per year in the year 2100, and will never reach and give us a maximum of half a meter higher water level, in the world's oceans, while we talk about degrowth as the future, the problem is not and get degrowth no the problem is how we can kick the old scooter that we call the economy into a world where the population is collapsing with small generations giving birth to smaller generations, still so far into the future that we can see into the future at all,
This brings to mind the lyrics of a French Canadian song: Your great grandmother was one of twelve, your grandmother was one of two, your mother was an only child and you were an accident.
This demographic disaster lies in the selfishness born of consumerism. People have preferred holidays, new cars, investing in property, etc rather than larger families. The move to less family friendly policies, the move to abortion and euthanasia, the introduction of no fault divorce have only added to this. The fact that most developed countries seem set on not helping their younger generations into stability of family and home; but simply pandering to the aging boomer population speaks volumes. This also borne out by resorting to apparently unrestricted immigration to solve the labour shortage. There would have to be a huge change in society to create the conditions for a balanced culture that puts families first for an increase in the birth rate.
Wtf are you talking about… I am before 30 - Emigrated to speed up saving… Currently earning decent salary in Switzerland… I am planning to get a house in some cheaper country as soon as I can. I am broke dude - I am not going on holidays and I don’t even know how avocado tastes. I AM RACING AGAINST TIME TO GET A PLACE WHERE I CAN RAISE A CHILD. Every year prices skyrocket further. For real fk u all. You ppl are delusional about young generation’s situation. I need to be a millionaire to get a house. And I am a woman btw. I am not risking homelessness - safety is my priority before getting pregnant.
Until you get rid of abortion on demand and no fault divorce on demand nothing will change. Women are brainwashed to be proud of killing kids and encourage each other to destroy their relationships and rob men blind. This is by design. Until the system completely collapses and women suddenly realise that government enforced entitlements aren't coming for them but bad men are going to hurt them, they won't start to value good men again. When you rebuild from the ashes, remember that women always outnumber men in a society, they will always vote for their own interests and you will just start the cycle again unless women are religiously, constitutionally and permanently restricted in both their voting rights (should be 20%-25%) and their immoral behaviour.
@ LarryWater Correction: Marriage among the "lower" (less economically successful people) classes is not worth it. The government can support the woman and kids much better than her husband; if he is a low-wage person. If she has both a boy and a girl .... Better yet 3 kids. She is almost always guaranteed an apartment with at least 3 bedrooms.
What is going to happen is that the cultures which cherish having children will proliferate, and the cultures which are focused on non-family goals will go into decline. This will be most prominent in nations in which the government has not arrogated to itself the privilege to determine cultural values. Nations whose pro-family segments are the smallest will go into the greatest decline until the recovery takes root and will undergo the most radical cultural changes.
@disgruntledtoons This, while partially true, ignores the fact that people often adapt different cultural patterns than those they have been raised by.
The only cultures that value many children are, for lack of better term, fuck ups. Lazy and not industrious. They have been on the planet they same amount of time as the rest of the world, yet achieve nothing. Thinking that these people are going to step is a joke. They have had 10,000 years to do so and have done nothing. If the West falls, the world will fall into the dark ages.
Yes, not just culture and this needs to be reflected in government policies, tax structures and societal norms/expectations for those countries to be growing
In case of " international intervention to prevent Grece from bankrupting" .In reality it was bailing out GERMAN BANKS that had given bad loans, and had brece stopped paying those banks would be in trouble." international intervention" was in essense forcefully paying off german banks, and keeping takxpayers of Europe on hook for that paying off, not letting Grece just not pay and banks take a hit for THEIR bad investment.
extremely high population density. there's 170 million people plus in an area the size of iowa. the crowding has made it so people are living on top of each other. what's likely is that there will be a big Bangladeshi diaspora soon.
Stop assuming about a nation you don't know it happened because in 1971 Pakistan tried to do a mass genocide and killed young men to eliminate the fighting population, and that's why women needed to work and also government tried to control population
I really do wonder if in places like Korea, where literally most voters will be retired on pension and have no grandkids soon (and that isn't an exaggeration), will they not care about anything but voting for higher pensions, future (that they don't care about or have any weight in) be damned? Maybe democracy will fail entirely. Certainly the economy will either way once it starts shrinking every year endlessly. Another thing to note is that it is still too early to say, but it's possible the birth rates will continue to drop even further over the next generation. South Korea is down to 0.7-0.8 now, what if it is 0.5 in 20 years time, or lower? It might turn out that way. It's completely ridiculous, this matters more than pretty much anything any politician ever talks about, but you barely hear about it.
unlikely .. high fertility is correlated with optimism.. if people realize that on top of all modernity’s problem their life expectancy is also shrinking they’ll be even more reticent to “waste” what little time and resources they have left raising an inordinate number of kids
This guy thinks Africa doesn't produce scientists and entrepreneurs 😂. The notion that Africa will only be exporting raw materials to the developed world is funny. Underestimate Africa at your own peril. Africa has the highest economic growth rate among all the continents, just for your information.
Each individual needs to take responsibility for this... talking about someone else fixing the issue while people just keep commenting on the problem doing nothing about it.
Fertility rate is decrasing all across the globe. Soon enough Fertiity rate for central asian,some arab countries and bangladesh, indonesia and some african countries are decrasing toward 2.1. Population Control is not an agenda is countries like Pakistan, afghanistan and some central African countries but still decreasing due to issues like inflation and unemployment fertility rate is decreasing in cities. The developed coutries like germany US australia and Canada counter such issues by taking lot of SkillFull labour from asian and african countries. Population Increased at a great pace in industrail Era because of high productivity and Also population Control was not even a thing before industrial Revolution, But after Industrial Revolution The mother Nature is damaged also at a great pace because of Increasing consumerism and Population Control Became Inevtible to make peace and co existence with Nature. Women Becoming independent and self sufficient is also reason of population decrease. One thing I do not understand is in developed Countries one cannot affort to have a Baby While in Poor countries People are having Dozens of Babies, doesn't matter how bad qualtiy a life Could be. In rich Countries people want to live life fully. and spent all the money on their leisure rather than caring for the future of their country. Millions of youth in Pakistan and India (somehow India is getting better) are suffering from unemployment and learing foreign language like japanese chinese french and german is common in Pakistan and No foreign Invester is ready to invest in Pakistan because of Political Turmoil, Security reasons and economic instability and the government is also doing nothing to facilitate its young gerneration in seeking work visa and study visa toward foreign countries. A person has to wait for four to five months to get to germany for study visa.
In my opinion the leading driver for the declining fertility rate in Europe is the age woman get married and have children. In Texas it’s still very common for woman to marry under 20 and start having children within a year of marriage.
I know this is an issue worldwide but lack of housing is probably the biggest problem and especially price to pay ratios for housing. Especially since houses need to be built to be robust since we are such cold climates and are often too small to have many children.
@@trevdestroyer8209 well we need to figure out a way to both make women and men want kids. Antagonising each other won’t do shit and will make everything much, much worse.
One of the most interesting observertion about this problem is how it's gonna lead to the eventual industrialisation of Africa. If the western and eastern countries demographics collapse, the biggest consumer and labor market in the world will be Africa. Far more people in working and consuming age than anywhere in the world. Inverstor will be incentivized to invest in these countries to have any significant return on their money. And immigrant from these countries in the western world will have a lot more advantage than european or american invertors in african countries because they are a lot more familiar with their structure and even tho they can't muster the same amount of capital as western investors, they will win out in the long terms due to their strategical advantage in the field. In Senegal we are starting to see the process. Migrants are investing more and more in the countryand right now I work in a canadian company set up by a senegalese immigrant in canada and senegal. We are seeing a large number of companies being started by Senegalese people who migrated to France, Canada or the USA. The scale is still small right now because there is not much incentive to invest here when the western populations are gonna be stable for the next 30 years but after 2050 when their biggest generation die out, i see a new scamble for africa in the horizon.
@@skylinefever yes but that demographic transition will take 200years like the western one. In the long term industrialization will always lead to falling birth rates anyway but in the meantime until Africa fully transitions, it is going to be one of the biggest economic hubs in the next century.
I'm not African but I saw a similar story about Somalia a couple months ago. Even though it is probably the most war-torn country on the continent, Mogadishu is experiencing a construction boom due to the improving security situation, which is fueled largely by Somali communities in places like the UK and US.
@@TrueNativeScot IQ only involves an hypothetical ability to resolve a puzzle, it doesnt meassure intelligence, If you have ever stepped on a college you will see a few Africans who are into science focused degrees. If that isn't smarter than people like you, then idk what more of an "IQ" fallacy can give sustainability to that.
The belief in their own insularity from the coming demographic crisis is so characteristic of the ethos of the environmentalist movement: Someone else is going to pay for it.
@@WastedBananas Demographic decline IS a problem for the URBAN economy. The farmers and tribals and pastorals will not feel any existential crisis if modern economy models failed. But if rural demographics can give impetus to surplus urban “demographics” then they need to be rural so as to make cities thrive. Otherwise, you are on downward spiral. Make Rural Great Again.
TBH, economists say only 1% of US population creates all food and agricultural produce,In surplus, and it is a good thing because the rest of the labour is in modern economy of manufacturing and service sectors. But cities are a problem, demographically. In India, 50% of the labour force is in Agriculture and accounts for less than 20% of the economy? And India is growing leaps and bounds but not like China. China leap frogged India massively. But here we are. China is dying and India is supposed to be the Economy to look out for. Why? Because in India, growth happens naturally. We are not Capitalist. We are “Socialist” by constitution with an amendment. But we let things flow, naturally. That’s why we never had a meteoric rise, but we don’t have a meteoric fall in the future. And I am saying all this as an Indian, knowing we are the 100th poorest nation today or even poorer but we don’t subscribe to quick growth and forever darkness. That’s why I said, discourage or even reverse urbanisation, in the lon term, most Humanity should be creating food. Leave cities for scientists and AI and stuff. Otherwise, we won’t reproduce at all. Cities are a deathbed for fertility.
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I disagree that America will be unaffected.
Everytime the UN and other institutions like World bank publish demographic numbers and every year the number published in the previous years are wrong. Nobody can figure out why the fertility rate are falling precipitously and where will they stop.
I have figured out the "why" and "how" and trust me its very ugly.
P.S. most of your projections need major revisions.
You are good at this - thanks for the well researched video.
Any chance I could send you a questionnaire. You inspired me to take demographics as a part of my course, and I’d love to be able to include you in my school work.
If not, just please tell me, and thanks, great video as always!
PS just give me info (e-mail, discord anything)
everywhere I look real life or the internet the developed countries seem to have some kind of problem why ?
I am 30 years old and come from a family with 8 children, I am the oldest of them in age. From my brothers and sisters 5 are adults. And three of them claim that life is meaningless and we should not have children because we bring them to a cruel world with death and misery. So I have started to see the whole issue as a cultural struggle between life and anti-life sentiment among the young. Many young people seem to feel, especially Gen Z that life is just unbearable and nonexistence is preferable.
I feel you bro. It is hard to live in a nihilistic society. Though kind of ironic for you to type this with name "Quantum Foam" -- doesn't seem to get much more Rick and Morty-Reddit-Atheist than that. Not to offend you, just a funny circumstance. My name and profile pic is also from before my conversion and could be interpreted in a similar way.
I hope we find Christianity again as societies. :)
@quantumfoam539 That is sad. We need to fight against this view.
@@affel6559Even though christianity is clearly a scam? The christian god itself is logically paradoxical.
@@kaiserbauch9092I think we need to promote a societal system where one has a feeling of belonging to. Where most people will feel like others actually care about them. I don't see that in our current societies.
@@coredeadman5980 Wow you are so smart. I'm sure among the hundreds and thousands of extremely intellectually gifted Catholic scholars that lived since the time of Christ noone ever found this amazing argument against the Blessed Trinity.
You should consider getting into theology with such a sharp intellect. But be careful that you don't cut yourself as clearly your intellectual prowess is sharp as an obsidian blade and might manifest itself in the realm of the physical due to being so enormously sharp.
Sarcasm aside, you obviously don't have any idea what you are talking about. Christianity was and is followed by some of the smartest and most honest people who ever lived. You are free to disbelieve but you are not free to tell yourself the soothing lie that your intellectual tradition is the only one followed by smart, honest people.
Sweden’s fertility rate fell to just 1.32 in the first half of 2023, including immigrants. It’s even lower for ethnically Swedish women.
And Muslims in Sweden, it’s probably 2-2.5, an entire child more. Sweden will become Islamic, that I’m sure.
raise the retirement age to 80 (for 3 kids) and increase it by 5 years per less kid and make the childless retirement age 100
@@neocortex8198 At this point, might aswell abolish the pension system and open fire against the violent crowd.
raise the retirement age to 90 for anyone with one kid, 85 for two kids and 80 for three. Make early retirement treason ban anyone with under 4 kids from collecting public benefits and under 3 kids from getting private benefits. Its time to have a revolution against retirees
@@AG-lz2ggswedes need to emulate muslims more including the parts involving rooftops
The worst part is that "fixing" the problem would lead to a double whammy for the generation that does the fixing, because they would have to support both a large population of retirees and children.
At that point with so many retirees retirement would be a thing of the past you would work until you die.
The Philippines is a classic example: it has an enormous child and elderly population and has to rely on exporting its surplus population to bolster its economy with foreign money remitted back by overseas workers and migrants.
Isn't it better than supporting the retirees and illegal alien infiltrators (wrongly called refugees) from a different ethnicity and culture than your own though?
there is a solution and the opposition to that would be purely cultural, in the west elder generations hold most of the capital , sharing as they do in some culture , would help. You can buy a bigger house and share expenses, to house everyone= > better outcome for everyone. Sure you're going to tell me that most people don't want to have to deal with their parents, yet is purely cultural.
We might need another Covid outbreak 👀
They told everyone having kids is a bad idea and now they are surprised people are not having a lot of kids?
Surprised?
Hahahaha, yep. Make having kids really expensive, tell us there is a population problem, tell women that it is better to have a career than have kids, then equal pay means two income households are required for what my dad could afford as a truck driver.
@@DaveStuart-n8iwe are simply not able to spend time with the children we have. If we have them. Why bring children into the world when we can’t even raise them?
15:25 One small correction here, the fertility rate in Portugal has risen because our government decided to open the flood gates since the pandemic. So migrants are the ones incresing the Portuguese fertility rate, not the native Portuguese.
@perseus274 It is inconvenient.
How come? Here in Brazil the fertility is declining rapidly, are those migrants from Africa?
Here from brazil. We should not allow the white race disappear from both sides of the atlantic.
@@mattllavesthey are from everywhere : África,Pakistan ,brazil
@@mattllaves They come mainly from Palop countries (Portuguese speaking countries), and South Asian countries.
THANK YOU for mentioning the elderly-voter-trap effect. People assume "oh we will eventually senesce our way out of this" but if each generation is getting smaller the voting base will always be top-heavy; there is no "aging out" of it. There will always be more old than young and they will always vote in their interests. It's a prisoners' dilemma because no generation wants to be the one left holding the shit sandwich. No one wants to let the buck stop with them.
I've seen that too. So many people are just expecting someone else to bail them out.
They say things like, "This happens everywhere." Or "It will work itself out."
I just don't understand. Even a simple vote can help out.
@@eksbocks9438Denial is a massive force here. Its very difficult to think that your grandparents may be a burden. Or that people should have a duty to have children in today's society.
Governments so far have done a great job using sleight of hand to hide the problems of ageing populations. The British government accounts for example don't recognise a debt for paying future pensions - this is very deceptive.
@@jgw9990 It really is. I can't count how many times people have gotten mad at me about this.
I would explain a problem or bug in the system. And they would dismiss everything, because I said it in the "wrong tone."
And what are they doing to contribute? Nothing. They're just trash-talking people, and causing drama. It's so childish.
The thing is, once the economy collapses then you can't continue to provide welfare for dependents, no matter how hard they vote for it.
How do you know that they will always vote with their interests?
Another awesome video!
Make another video on american Caesar pls?
honestly we need a revolution against retirees
@@neocortex8198feminism*
Sup
Thank you very much!
What? My gender studies teacher would disagree with you...
Please tell me it's a joke
@@alchimia2730it's gender studies, the teacher is the joke
@@josir1994
😂😂😂
thats a very strong endorsement.
It’s funny you say that when these classes make up like 4-5% of college curriculum and business classes (3rd grade math) makes up 30% of college curriculum.
I wouldn’t look to government to fix this demographic mess. They might play a part in encouraging a viable solution but I seriously doubt the solution will ever come from them.
Agreed. Ultimately the government can't force people to have children they don't want to have.
@@alexpotts6520 Communist Romania did. The result was unwanted kids being treated like shit.
Someone needs to reverse engineer the genuine desire to make and raise children to fix this.
Do not just argue "Religion" plenty of awful parents have children because "God commands it" and are complete shit to them. They just want an exit from eternal hellfire.
A dictatorial government could do something about this. 😂
@@alexpotts6520It is not people but women that are the problem.
@@insomniacresurrected1000One problem is with just hard dictatorship force is that once the dictatorship is gone, the birth rates and population will collapse like what happened in Romania. Yes there needs to be encouragement of families and discouragement of not having families but to seek dictatorship over it is absurd.
I live in Japan, so I’m just going based of my experiences interacting with Japanese and other foreigners living here. At this point, it’s far more cultural (It’s not anti-natalist at all and a quite pro-natalist culture. Really complicated to express but the tldr is people in Japan are PETRIFIED of screwing up being a parent) and just a high level of childless than anything else. Rent is cheap, hours are now lower than Americans, and the job benefits while not massive by European standards are much better than American job standards. I think Japan is reaching a true snapping point soon as to how far they can avoid the situation. When that breaking point is reached, I think it’ll be the younger generation that is born into it in the 2030s/2040s who will have a high inclination to high levels of fertility. They will see the true horrors of what it means having no one looking out for you. I don’t think there will be a wide scale collapse in living standards coming here, but I think Korea is completely doomed on a level that is genuinely frightening. The majority of Gen Z in Korea do not want any children, and let’s take into consideration how many people want to have children but never will. I truly think Korea will have the unlucky position of being the poster child for ignoring the problem, and I think Korea will experience some of the steepest drops in living standards we’ve ever seen in human history in 20-40 years.
Regardless, I love Japan, and I’m willing to sit through whatever crisis is coming my way here, and whatever conclusions of it happen will happen. There’s no sense worrying about an abstract future that hasn’t materialised yet even if I know it’ll likely be bleak compared to the present.
Don't worry, China will be much worse off.
Japanese housing is cheap but many of the housing units in Tokyo are *tiny.* Idk whether it's smaller flats preventing people having kids, or smaller families causing the market to demand smaller flats, but either way it's a big obstacle to raising birth rates.
Problem is that they will end up with more and more debt with less and less people.
@@KojiCT It's the same problem with South Korea as well. They think they can focus strictly on White Collar stuff. Without a manufacturing/export base (small countries don't have raw materials).
So, now you have a bunch of people going for scarce jobs. And they're worried about not having a place to live. So they take out loans to either pay the rent, or participate in some cryptocurrency scam ("investing").
I figured Japan and South Korea had low birth rates because who wants to lose their youth to cram school so they can make their kids go to cram school?
I don't think people realise the utter catastrophe that will unfold over the next 30 years.
Consider the following points (I'm using Britain as an example but most of the 1st world is in the same trend):
- Both state and private pensions rely on a regular influx of new workers into their accounts. The state pension age is rising the world over. Here in the UK it's between 66-68. We could be looking at state pension ages in the late 70s to early 80s within the next 10 years and by that point the system will simply collapse. Any measures taken to rectify the problem are pretty much untenable or will contribute to inflation spirals.
- Hundreds of schools had to shut or combine last year. By some estimates, there is going to be a 50% drop in the number of children entering primaey school by 2030 in the UK. So we will see a huge reduction in the industry of education from primary school through university.
- There will be an enormous reduction in the number of young people entering university for highly skilled professions such as doctors, engineers, math related fields and computer programming.
In sheer desperation, standards will HAVE to be dropped in order to make up the demand. Expect a staggerring rise in human error across a variety of essential infrastructure and complex industries.
- The aged population will become a burden of nightmarish proportions. State care will have to become the norm as there will be too few familial descendants to take care of the elderly. If the NHS and nursing homes are understaffed and under pressure now, they will simply implode under the weight of trying to care for so many. As the quality of care decreases, longevity will decline.
- We will end up with swathes of economic dead zones and ghosts regions across the country (this is already happening in places like Japan and Italy).
I could go on. The economic and skills shrinkage, the psychological destruction of society and culture that the imbalance of youth and elderly will bring, etc.
Britain would be a far far better country with a population of 40 million, like it had in 1945. Less pressure on all the systems which cannot cope now with the numbers of people. Health, housing, water, food security, energy, transport, etc will all benefit from less pressure in them and become more stable or affordable. I agree the social security system is a Ponzi scheme with younger people paying the incomes of the old, but more cash will be freed up when the baby boomers die, and that can be used to invest in future incomes. In fact, I see very little downside and would even make it explicit policy to reduce the population in a managed way.
@@simon7790 Forgive me for the blunt disagreement. But how exactly would a 40% drop in the UK's population be a good thing except in the most cynical and at the same time most wishful thinking?
If the UK lost 27 million people, entire regions would end up depopulated wastelands. Infrastructure requires many and regular points of maintenance and upkeep.
People would migrate out of areas where all the elderly had died off without replacement (there are many towns and neighbourhoods where the baby boomers make up anywhere from 25 to 40% of the inhabitants and are crucial to local economies).
This would simply put extra strain on the services of high population areas as people fled the countryside and semi-urban areas.
Much if not most of the wealth left behind by baby boomers is in the form of houses. Houses with a crashed value due to a massive drop in demand.
I am happy to be corrected but I fail to see any benefit to your suggestions. The England of 1945/1950 with its population of 40 million was MUCH younger overall and the population was spread out with the organic growth of the population. Your ideas have all the hallmarks of another social engineering failure like the China 1 child policy.
At any rate no hard feelings meant and thank you for the engagement. Keen to see where you think I'm wrong.
@@joshp.2872 I recently attended a conference, where they explained through numbers and projections that the uk is likely to lose something like 80% of its remaining arable land due to climate change, if things keep going like they are now.
You talk about housing market and stuff like that. Of course that’s gonna suck. But in the end, you can’t eat money.
@@joshp.2872 there wouldn't be a plague of depopulated areas if the population in cities didn't keep growing ( like cancer).
Stop providing the means for urban/capital areas to keep sucking the life out of their nations.
Washington DC used to be a sleepy Southern city until the growth of the federal government post WWII. Now tens of thousands of useless government bureaucrats have flooded in and the N. Virginia and Maryland suburbs are full of those fat, overpaid, OVER PENSIONED, maggot. They plus all of the people in businesses getting fat government contracts (military & security state industries)
Biggest growth of "McMansions" starting in '90s has been those same suburbs. How is it that a workforce that produces ZERO tangible product have some of the highest household incomes in the entire country. WTF is that about???
Slash ALL levels of government jobs and devolve power back to the periphery
@@deaththekid3998 stop commenting. Your previous comments are just swill.
There is NO climate issue.
It's a manufactured crisis to justify more totalitarian government actions.
No way that human activity is causing anything beyond a mere blip in weather changes. That big blazing hot orb in the sky has more impact due to increased solar activity
I am greek and I can tell you that the saying "the one with one eye is the king among the blind" is definitely not (only) czech at all, and we say it a lot down here. Even 65 year olds would understand you 😂
Isn't it from the Bible somewhere?
This dude is stupid. He thinks Czech is the center of the world. I knew a Bosnian woman who used to think like that too. Typical East Europeans 😅
In English: "In the kingdom/realm of the blind, the one-eyed man is king".
@@alexpotts6520 I don't know if it shows up anywhere in the Bible, but at the very least it's a reference to a war between the Byzantines and the Bulgarians, where IIRC the Bulgarians surrendered and the Byzantines gouged out their eyes and sent them back home so that they'd never be a problem again. Out of 'mercy', 1 in every 1,000 they only took 1 eye from, so they could lead everybody else back home safely.
In Spanish we use it too
I am glad that you talk about it. This will be problem that could be potentially really damaging on our young generations
Why are you complaining now? We've been telling you about Colonization being bad
@besttom8823 It is the greatest problem of our times.
Industrialism and globalism is really coming to a head. Hope we can solve these issues; without resorting to mass migrations that could replace and essentially genocide the original inhabitants of developed nations.
It's not industrialism, it's a loss of faith, loss of national pride, loss of family values, loss of appreciation for motherhood, loss of masculinity. And extreme individualism, hedonism, nihilism.
History would repeat itself and Europeans could repeat faith of native Americans.
The problem is warmongers and extremists like Bush, Blair, Obama, Biden, etc. Their wars in Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Yemen, Libya, Somalia, etc. haven't just created the largest demographic shift in Europe since WWII, but has increased uncertainty for the entire Europe. People do not plan for the future the same way if the future is uncertain.
Don't get me wrong. I don't blame just those few people mentioned. Hundreds of millions Europeans supported the War of Terror. The refugee crisis was of our own making. And there's no end to it as long as we wage wars in the Middle East and Africa. We have already displaced at least 35 million people. And we are creating new refugees every single day as long as our wars continues.
I worry more about an autocratic Europe rising before that happens. You know that happens when it becomes politically acceptable in the developed world to sick illegal migrant boats with the people still in them and enforce border security with mine fields and machine guns.
@@ivanshevchenko3020and europe would be inhabited by low iq wannebe gangsters
such a humane argument.
"if everybody dies, earth will probably be ok."
There's always been a misanthropic streak running through the green movement.
If the population shrinks those who remain will be better off
@@alexpotts6520 that's an understatement.....by a magnitude or so
@@alexpotts6520 i think pro Natalists and anti natalists are blowing this out of proportion. on one end the Anti Natalists are losers, while ironically the pro Natalists have such a low self esteem of themselves that they believe in parenthood, but don't want to commit believing themselves to be incompetant or blame it on economic factors which is nonsense. I believe our birthrate will balance out, the great depression had stagnating birth rates, though it didn't drop, people do reproduce when people are aware. I believe this is a mere cycle that will go away.
Everybody isn't dying, it's more the people from "first world" nations
Regarding your "Czech saying" at 16:12 (and as a couple of others have commented): it is widespread. The standard form in English is "In the land of the blind, the one-eyed man is king." It is typically attributed to the great Renaissance scholar Desiderius Erasmus. I am sure that in the middle of the twentieth century, it was well-known to educated people in every place that European languages were spoken.
The "Czech saying" is exactly the same in german if you translate it literally. No surprise here. It is not the only one.
@user-ng8fk8vn7q Many people from all over the place wrote this to me, I should have done some research :D My bad.
@@kaiserbauch9092 FWIW, my father regarded "Three moves are equivalent to one fire" as his mother's own witticism. At least she used the Spanish version ("Tres mudanzas equivalen a un incendio"), which is gracefully more precise about the kind of move and the kind of fire. I've seen the proverb attributed to Benjamin Franklin by both English- and Spanish-speakers, and he did publish an archaic form (with "remove") in his almanacs), but I suspect he did not originate the thought. Proverbs and folktales often more universal than one might imagine. Then again, I can't find a German equivalent that is at all common.
Falling birthrates, AI, robotics, immigration, euthanasia.. Interesting times ahead..
Listing euthanasia seems odd... There already are countries where it is allowed for terminally ill people, yet even *they* don't seem to be flocking to those facilities (even though they would have a pretty good reason). Turns out, people don't much want to die. Even the ones who complain all the time about life sucking.
@@andrasadam8256 Over 30,000 Canadians have done euthanasia since 2021. Rate increasing yearly..
@@headpump So less than 0.1% of the population?
@@tomasrocha6139 1 in 1000 people is alot tbh
@@buffcommie942 It's not, and most were already very sick and old
Damned if you do and damned if you don't. Yes, economists think we grow forever. But they are wrong. We have been living on an environmental credit card for the last few hundred years. We can't continue forever. Sooner or later, we have to stop or be forced to stop. However, as this guy points out, stopping is expensive.
One thing I'm surprised you didn't mention is remote work and learning. Two of the reasons that birth rates are declining are rising costs of living and a decline in the traditional family structure that would encourage young people to have children. And, working or learning online is something that I think can mitigate these effects.
If you look at somewhere like Corsica, there is already almost a complete lack of young people due to the majority of them leaving to the mainland for their education. They also tend to stay there, since there is a lack of job opportunities on the island outside of tourism. The same thing is true in rural areas in the USA where I'm from, too. Many young people want to move to a major metropolitan area like New York, the Bay Area, Los Angeles, or Austin because of work or education.
This, of course, massively drives up the cost of living in these areas, especially for housing, discouraging many from having children. It also contributes to the effect of diminishing traditional family structures when children move far away from their parents. It leaves the parents without anybody to take care of them in their old age, and also the children without anybody to take care of their kids or help out around the house. However, with remote work and learning, the issue of education and employment are less severe.
I live in a city about an hour outside of New York City, and, during the pandemic, there was a massive influx of New Yorkers, especially those with families. This was due to them not wanting to be quarantined in a small apartment, but also due to the option of remote or hybrid work that doesn't require them to be so close to the office. While prices drove up for us locals, everything was considerably cheaper for the New Yorkers, and they were able to buy houses and eventually settle here.
Obviously, people working in the service, manufacturing, and agricultural industries can't do remote work. However, if somebody is able to get a college degree online and get a job working remotely, then they will never be forced to move away from their family to an expensive city. Governments definitely need to do more to promote remote working and learning, because I definitely think it can be a big part of the solution to the demographic crisis.
There is a battle against remote work, because it is destroying commercial real estate values. So many businesses tied their value to it, that they won't tolerate line going down, no matter the cost. The rich must get richer no matter the cost.
@liamwilcox641, yes that is precisely it! Pandemic was an eye opener, and showed that we can use digital tools to perform our daily work outside the constraints of a physical space (at least for the services sector). No doubt that a big part on why people are having fewer children, and thus causing a decline in population, is the rising cost of living. We should rethink how to decouple from major urban areas, and redistribute population over medium/smaller cities. Also, education wise, we should also rethink the need to persue an higher education. Companies are now rather more focused in certain skills rather than a diploma. On the longer run, people could start their lives earlier as oposed to study for many years and further delay starting their lives. This adresses only a small part of the global problem, but would be already a starter!
@@antoniocampos1151 The for profit bullshit degree system won't approve of it.
Not going to happen. Corporations and governments love office work, not remote work.
@@skylinefeverThe rich cannot get richer if the poor cannot get poorer.
We are too poor for children lol.
And before someone mentions Africa - in developed countries children don’t contribute to household for almost 20 years.
I am slowly approaching my 30s - I am still saving money to get a house. Unfortunately prices are going up faster than I can save.
And I am not risking renting with kids - not when landlords can raise prices as much as they want. If I will be homeless - at least I will be homeless without a child.
Millennials & Z are screwed - since we joined workforce everything is getting worse year by year. We have no break to even think about family - we are focused on survival.
I call this being aware
In my country, people do not contribute to the household's income, yet many are still having +3 kids while being poor and still renting, it's really just a problem in the west cause westerners care much about giving their kids a good standard of living
I meant kids* not people
@@albertcamus1739 The mindset is just very different.
The whole final part of the video from 39:52 onwards encapsulates my feelings perfectly.
This is the first video i have watched from your channel, but it certainly won't be the last. Thank you :)
@justaaltaccount4196 Thank you! I am glad to hear that!
Thank you for these videos. I wrote my Economics dissertation on this topic, and it marvels me how people in the West consider climate change an existential threat but have zero awareness of this. The West is already on the decline, and give it 100 or so years, Western Europe will fall, that I’m sure. America is better off as it’s natural birth rates are better, and more importantly, it’s immigrants are mostly Latin American Catholics compared to MENA Muslims in Europe, the latter obviously is the worst group possible for integration into a Western culture and society (well, Pakistani Muslims are worse but only the UK has them and they’re balanced out here by Hindus and Sikhs who integrate with very little to no problems, and respect British culture/values, least in my experience).
Pakistani Muslims have integrated well in the USA...consider the Desi population in Houston, very well-educated, productive members of that community.
I think the dynamics of cultural assimilation--as well as the socio-economic group of the immigrants--are more important that the country and religion of origin.
@@truthseeker4470 The trashier the person, the less the integration happens.
@truthseeker4470 They integrate well when they are very small minorities in the country. When they grow in size then a crabs in a bucket pressure to be true Muslims and true Pakistanis prevents integration. It helps that flying back to Pakistan from America is probably excessively expensive - UK ones regularly fly back and doing so reinforces their old ways.
@@jgw9990 It’s more the type of Pakistani’s in America vs UK. The British Pakistanis immigrated mostly in the 50s-90s and came from rural, ultra conservative villages in the countryside. They were poor and very backwards areas. I read a recent news story about one such village, a Mullah (preacher) was preaching to a crowd and asked people to raise hands on various questions, one such was that ‘was the prophet Muhammed wrong’ and a boy by accident raised his hand. He was accused of blasphemy and had to run to not be beaten, he was 14. And worse, he was so ashamed and scared that he went to some farming equipment, cut off the hand that he raised (in blasphemy apparently) then went back with his stump and used his remaining hand to give his cut off hand to the Mullah, as recompense and atonement for his accidental blasphemy. He was then lauded and applauded by the Muslims there, search the story up, these are the type of immigrants the UK had. Meanwhile, the US allows only the college educated, upper class Pakistanis. These tend to be less fanatical, less conservative, more liberal and secular minded, and for sure, more open to western values. Pakistani society is diverse, and if you pick the most conservative and backwards society of society (rural farm worker form a backwards village) vs the most secular and liberal section (educated engineer from a liberal or moderate family), you’ll obviously get very different results. In this matter, America did well for itself, and the UK couldn’t be more stupid.
I'm surprised YT even allowed this comment to stay up and be visible to others. Probably because you've been careful in the past and haven't had your account blacklisted
It is unfair that a woman who devoted herself to her 4-5 children may experience need in old age, while another who has made a choice in favor of a career will buy herself a villa in Italy or Spain.
Therefore, I propose a rather radical plan: lifetime payments for each child.
Try to do that in countries like Greece. People barely afford to sustain themselves...
The villa thing is a result of uncontrolled capitalism. We kinda deserve it since we allowed it to flourish for so many years.
@@Snakebloke it could be done as tax transfer. Part of their taxed income returns to their parents. So you are motivated to rise skilled workers and patriots to stay in your country
There's a better way; free/public kindergarden, affordable places for creative activities for children, and benefits to parents.
I think your suggestion generates more "guilty" feelings for children who did not ask to be born after all
Gibs me monies
Planet Czechia seems like a cool idea. NO MORAVIANS ALLOWED!!!
Planet slovakia No1
@@sirsurnamethefirstofhisnam7986That would only be a moon for Planet Hungary.
that was one of the weirdest segues into sponsored content I have ever seen at 3:45
Es ist Zeit für den Anschluss.
And they say that it's just a cospiracy theory...
great replacement is a conspiracy theory the reason for the fertility decline in the west is not caused by anyone its a natural process every country in the world is going through sooner or later the fertility rate of muslims and africans will equal out with westerners and maybe even lower than westerners n fact many muslim countries fertility is declining rapidly and the country of Turkey has similar fertility rates to france
it literally is. WHO are the conspirators that conspire to nuke their own economies?
It’s just mathematics
"Birth rates are falling" is not a conspiracy theory; The Great Replacement is.
@@AG-lz2ggremember when they said math was racist?
Yes, most people agree we're screwed. One of the things that preppers quickly learn is that you can prepare for a lot of different doomsday scenarios by doing exactly the same things. Maybe we should set aside the question of WHY we're screwed, and get together on the issue of what we can do to mitigate it, like increasing self-reliance and resiliency, fortifying local governments against collapse of higher-scale governments, and investing in long-term infrastructure while we still can.
Yeah, ban feminism !
THAT IS NOT THE PROBLEM, HIGH HOUSING COST, SO NOW IT IS TO EXPENSIVE TO HAVE OVER 1 CHILED IF AT ALL, PEOPLE NOW WANT NICE HOUSES, NICE CARS, AND NICE VACATIONS, HAVING CHILDREN PREVENTS THIS
@andrewbobb3170 I am going to buy a truckload of baked beans in cans.
@@kaiserbauch9092 lol. Dry beans are cheaper, lighter, and survive longer. Although if you can learn how to melt down the cans and make stuff, the value of the metal might tip the scales.
@@andrewbobb3170lol
I`m from Poland and we already see the effects of destroyed democracy by demography. If you go to the street, to the university or to the job, you will find pretty no-one voting for the current ruling party (PIS). But, at the end, they have about 35% of votes, which gives them in our system 100% of decisive power. The remaining 65% is split into 3-5 smaller parties from left to right, so the privilege to create a government is on the PiS side. So the question is always - who is voting for them? So if you take a look, the majority of voters are from people in age over 55. So we are now in election campaign and what are the main points from PiS? Additional pensions (13 i 14, instead of 12 per year) and reduction of retirement age. But shortly after their 1st election in 2015, they already reduced once retirement age. We have no hope...
raise the retirement age to 80 make it +5 years per less kid and 100 for the childless. Make early retirement treason its time to overthrow the elderly. The old must be overthrown for the benefit of the young
@@neocortex8198 Paradoxically this will happen anyway. The countries with such political system & demography like mine will be affected by huge emigration of skilled working population, because no-one will give half of the salary to current the pensioners. The shrinking working population will be required to pay even more, so there will be even more pressure to emigrate.
Those countries, where the demographic structure is not so tragic like in mine, with more stable political system, where takeover just by elder population is not possible, will be winners. The elders can change the law, but they cant force workers to work for them.
@@ukasz6310
Romania had that problem but fixed it by getting tens of thousands of workers from India Sri Lanka Nepal and Pakistan
It's estimated that their numbers will reach 200000 by 2030
Poland is accused of giving tens of thousands of visas to people from the middle east and south Asia recently
The other parties will not help the demographic problem though. They will probably only augment it anyway.
@@baha3alshamari152 haha yes. Paradoxically, the most anti-immigrant, far-right and nationalist government in our modern history brought over 100k immigrants from Asia and former-USSR countries, without mentioning it to the native population, they were even attacking immigration and multiculturalism parallel, showing riots in Paris, Germany etc. But I'm not sure if Poland is really attractive to such immigrants long-term, if they can move to western europe with better social benefits just 500 km further. The war in Ukraine was also a massive trigger for immigration. I barely recognize my country after those 2 years, even if I open window in my house i hear russian/ukrainian? language all the day long - according to the statistics my city was the 3rd target for Ukrainians to look for new home. It was not case earlier - it just happend over last 2-3 years, and Poland was extremally monoethnic country. But this immigration brings another problems - huge gender imbalance. The immigration from Ukraine was mostly woman, but the rest of immigration are normally mostly young males with low social status. So this is a trigger for known issues too.
What a pleasant surprise.. just as I get into Czech Republic and settle in, a new video from KB drops!
I like that more and more people are becoming aware about the role of demographics on a nation and economy.
People like you help spread this awareness
🤮🗡🩸
The only people who can carry out pregnancies in most countries are women but in the west they care more about killing babies. If you want birth rates you need to bring back patriarchy
@@howwitty?
@@howwitty vomit knife make me bleed
I think that what he trying to say
My first actual laugh in a while. 🤣🤣
Think about how people instantly stopped caring about plastic waste when COVID hit (over 1,600,000,000 disposable masks got dumped in the ocean just in 2020). When things really start to decline, carbon footprints will be the last thing on anyone’s mind. I’m going to start a lions mane mushroom farm and sell them to the elderly for their taste and neuro-protective effects.
How will Europe deal with massive Islamic migration? As number of radical Muslims grows the country destabilizes. i speak from experience since I am from India which has massive problem with Islamic jihadis
They won't, the western elite believe everyone is the same and they can use immigration to bring in a serf class, the reality is a repeat of what happened to Anatolia, 1000 years ago it was Greek now it is Turkey.
Unfortunately many Indian nationalists seem to mostly enjoy the shoe being on the other foot rather than offering solidarity. Internally Europe is very weak, Christianity is almost extinct and the liberal ideologies don't even understand religious motivation and thin the Muslims are allies because they also want to deconstruct western civilisation. Here in Britain the government sides with them against the population, look up Rotherham, what happens is not fit for the youtube bots.
@@vorynrosethorn903 What happened in Anatolia was a thousand years ago when war was the norm and where atrocities happened constantly. Immigration is a lot more different then conquering land through war.
Christianity is basically dead in the UK though and the English population is killing themselves with all the abortions they have + being majority liberals. I am a British Muslim myself and without us, the demographic situation would be a lot worse however immigration is just a temporary fix. You are right, we are not liberal allies. I hate it when we are coupled with those degenerates. It should be the remaining Christians in the UK teaming up with the Muslims to solve this problem.
Extremist Hindus in India are a much bigger problem with a lot wanting to genocide the Muslim populating Mr Baljeet.
@@eatinsomtin9984 Muslims are global problem.
I think the same way
There is no way out of this that doesn't end with a very big chunk of the population (specially the elderly population) getting really, really, really fucked
It's going to be the younger people of the Western world and the poorest of the developing world that will put on the altar.
meanwhile the young people will be blamed for everything because the media is really fucked.
@slimee8841 Hard to disagree with :D
Maybe we can automate faster than we age
28:14 It amazes me how few innovations come out of India. Indians aren't exactly dumb people, but since independence the Indian government has essentially sabotaged their success and is still doing so. There's 0 investment in primary education, all of India's educational spending goes into universities and most university-educated Indians immigrate to the United States. This essentially means that Indian tax payers pay for their own poverty and for America to become richer.
China became successful because they spent a lot on primary and secondary education, even people who didn't go into universities were intelligent enough to make successful business and continue learning. India just ignored the bottom 99% of its population because only the elites mattered.
Who would be considered as dumb people?
@@westmax8491non-whites judging by the official IQ stats
@@westmax8491 By that he meant, poor, and unproductive
@@TrueNativeScot Somehow the highest IQ countries aren't white, either. I love laughing about the numbers from Hong Kong, Japan, South Korea, and SIngapore. They are clustered near the top.
@-haclong2366 India is a hell of a complicated and intriguing country. Many people always ask me if I will do a demographic deepdive of India, but I would need to study it for years to be able to do so. There are like 500 ethnic groups and 354 religious groups :D
I cant wait to hear what you have to say about 30 year old women who remain unmarried in the west and in the east because the blackpill seems correct to me
My impression is that you sweat a little bit when the blackpill comes to your mind
We need a revolution against the elderly honestly my solution is simple. Treason for anyone who retires under 80 (with 3 kids), 85 for 2 kids, 90 for 1 kid and 100 for no kids
Why should the blame be on unmarried women and not unmarried men? Last time I checked, you needed one of each...
@@alexpotts6520 execute absentee fathers, stone adulteress men
good?
@@alexpotts6520aren't women the choosers since they do most of the rejecting?
North Korea might just win the Korean war. Remember the war is not over, and with South Korea dying out, in the end their ideology will prove itself correct through conquest.
Even though we thought South Korea’s ideology superior because of the poverty of north korea, south korea’s ideology led to its death.
Interesting thought.
I think that socialism is the disease that brings death to a society, feminism too...
And the west had taken way too high doses of both... And yes, south korea is westernized...
Funny to think that the dose of feminism/socialism/hedonism applied to the western world is so high that it brings the downfall of society to such a level that even low level subsistence socialism is better than it (better at keeping society at lowkey functioning that is, i didnt said that is enjoyable to the NK peasant)...
On a long enough timeline it doesn't matter if the other side is wrong or incompetent, as long as they outbreed you.
Surprisingly, just today there was a post on Korea's sabreddit about this topic, and judging by the comments, Koreans don't seem to care about it and are complaining about their petty problems like "evil corporations". Life will teach them a very harsh lesson in the future...
The melting point of that argument might come up in 40 years. The question is, will the North Korean regime survive more years under this system?, we all know South Korea will collapse but it won't collapse now
"Their ideology will prove itself correct through conquest."
Even if it happened (which seemed fanciful), it wouldn't tell us anything about whether juche is "correct". The morality or truth of an idea is completely independent from its ability to spread itself.
It isn't leading to doom, but rather, an evolution backwards.
The current problem caused by not 1,2,3,4 factor, but a combination of those.
Equal rights, pregnancy prevention means, strife to be at the upper half of the food chain, disrespect for not reaching such and, funnily enough, the ever-increasing cost of just living due to failed policies and a demographic crisis itself.
If you want to continue with those factors taking place, you need quite literally human farms. Maybe cloning, maybe government hiring women to get pregnant up to 6 times in their lifespan.
The other "solution" is a economic and/or moral collapse. Extreme policies like banning rubber/pills/abortion, demolishing equal rights, reintroducing slavery, sneakily killing off elderly and such. There are a lot of "solutions" that won't go well with a modern human right now.
The reason why the humanity "boomed" after WW2 was a dire need to reproduce combined with poverty and a sudden jump in quality of healthcare. It was one-time opportunity of an old mindset met with a new conditions. In the past, your children would flip a coin to decide if they would live on or die, they also were an actual source of income for their parents too, or at least not a total burden. Modern children are just an expensive pets and combined with some countries' conditions they are something you cannot afford and so your mindset doesn't allow it. There's also less time to find a partner, less time to make a baby with that said partner and, as a result, you can become "too old" to have a second child or even a first one.
And rich countries wouldn't be able to avoid the collapse. In fact, something like US is likely to fall from much higher window than Putin's "friends" because of the overspending. US economy as for now only exists because other countries needs it to exist in order to sustain themselves. If you're collapsing anyway, there's no need to continue supporting that since it is only prolonging your suffering - you would rather undergo a sudden shock which, hopefully, gives a birth to a new functioning system that is likely to operate on much lower scale.
On top of that, if something like Poland would start a swift collapse - people would migrate at large numbers, likely to that said US, Germany or Canada. No country right now other than Russia (resources and land is the only thing it has) would be able to sustain a flow of 10s millions per year, if not 1/2 or 1/4 of a year. They would be met with a pile of problems starting from extreme increase in food/water prices and even a basic lack of living space. Then, they would face a "Tower of Babel's" problem with a large amount of unintegrated people.
Once again, the true doom comes not just from one or two problems, but a combination of them happening at the same time and a thing they're giving a birth to. But the people in governments are not that stupid - if they sense the collapse, they would be willing to conduct an extreme measure to prevent it, unless they're fanatics of their own agenda.
@Rubinrus Thank you for this insight!
I think we are living through your "Tower of Babel" paragraph right now in the west. It is becoming increasingly difficult to have a society when everyone interprets reality and rules their own way. Also agree with the other part, some extreme unfriendly decissions will have to be met to increase fertility.
Great insight!
An addition to your last paragraph. Read abiut the "accelerationism" concept, and how the huperrich and the politicians might know that collapse is inevitable, and are doing seemingly stupid things in order to make it happen sooner
Amazing work brother.
I wonder if you’d consider making a video dedicated to understanding the specifics of the French case.
In 1830, France was the first ever industrial nation to enter the demographic transition. Now, it is the last of them to enter demographic collapse.
Seems like a fascinating case study!
@ouafallouz Thank you! Yes, the French case is very peculiar, I might look into that!
I agree that advantages multiply together instead of adding up. And that means negatives don't just add up, but literally multiply your problems.
@JohnTovar-ks8dp Indeed.
Everywhere is declining, not the developed world alone. Africa will increase but it too will decline after midcentury.
It is a function of wealth, education and technology.
I think the more interesting question is when and why will population decline level off.
Before population declines it will keep up increasing and we may be 20 billions in a century. Of course with such a terrifying mass of people the earth would be completely destroyed so let's hope it won't happen
Or if it will...
Africa isn’t not decling mid century. It actually will quadruple by end of the century up to 4-5 billion not including Africans dispersed in America, South America , europe and Haiti and the islands
@@mizzmini45 - UN says 4.2bn but they always overestimate. Which means African population will level and start declining sometime in the second half of the century.
@@mizzmini45 If you look at the birth rates they've been consistently going down but ofc they are still high now so the population will increase. I'm sure life expectancy is also increase which also means population increase overall.
Basically, the century will end in a dark age, a severe loss in education leading to inability to maintain tech all circling down until you are left with something akin to early industrial period
Sad and i hoped to get life extension because it was speculated to come out when i would be in my 50's.
Ofc
Your content is absolutely top notch brother!
Thank you!
Fix housing market then problem will solve itself.
He said that over the last decade fertility is becoming a worldwide issue - and he failed to mention skyrocketing housing costs in all developed countries… THE ONES THAT ARE AFFECTED THE MOST…
It’s ridiculously obvious - but 0.1% doesn’t like to speak about it.
We own nothing, but apparently we are not happy.
The problem with the focus on climate action (the extreme type) is that these people essentially want to put all efforts to resolve an hypothetical crisis down the road with solutions that will cause very real and deep problems RIGHT NOW.
Either way, there is no good straightforward solution.
SORRY, CLMATE CHANGE IS NOT HYPOTHETICAL, IT IS NOT TO BE DEBATED ANYMORE, THE SCIENCE IS SETTLED, MASSIVE FLOODS ALREADY HAPPENING ACCROSS THE WORLD, SCOTLAND NOW HAS MASSIVE FLOODS TODAY,
@dava00007 The climate change became a religion for many people, especially in Western Europe.
This is a topic I have been thinking a lot about lately. The thing I have been considering the most is the question of why people aren't having more children. There is the easy answer of birth control, but that only begs the question of why are people choosing so few (or none)? I could see why you might not want 12+ children, but why is three or four or five not a common number?
For most families in 1800 your children were a nominal burden for maybe six or seven years. But at some point they are able to begin helping with chores around the house or on the farm, and by early teens are quite competent in these things, and often would be off starting their own families by late teens or early 20s. Nowadays children are more than a nominal burden, and remain so for most of two decades. It is not possible for most to afford even one without two incomes due to the inflation of real estate and deflation of labor value. It is not possible to contribute to society at a meaningful level without at least 12 years of education, and if you really want to have a chance then it will be even higher. Then add the cost of child care, the expenses and commitments placed on parents for extra-curricular activities, and the ever increasing baseline of what material possessions are required just to be considered average in developed societies, and probably a dozen or more other things.
The good life in the past was to have a large family and solid social support network. This is largely dead in many places. Now the choice is between the modern good life, or poverty. By the standards of materialism we are more wealthy than we have ever been, but from the traditional standards of family we are at the poorest point in human history. The difference in perspective is just a matter of values. It will be interesting to see how this all settles out in a century or two, but I won't be around to see it.
I often say that this will act as a huge filter, removing many materialistic genes in favor of people having kids for spiritual fullfillment.
@@skylinefever kids are terrible
ONCE PEOPLE LEFT THE FARM YOU NO LONGER NEEDED CHILDREN WORKERS, IN THE CITY IS NOW TO EXPENSIVE TO HAVE MORE THEN 1 CHILD IF AT ALL, HIGH RENTS, HIGH FOOD PRICES, ETC
@MysteriousSlip It is certainly a very complex issue, with a myriad of economic, social and economic causes.
Children are more of a burden then they are in the past.
I do not want to go back to classical or even Victorian Era child labour scenarios; for the alarmist individual who might proceed to read this in bad faith. But just have a big think about the way westernised societies are structured for children:
- They aren't allowed to enter the labour market until late teens, and usually with a ton of added restrictions. In a system where contribution through taxation and labour is everything (READ: I'm not a capitalist, I do not like the system we are in, but I recognize it for what it is), that means for several years the child's contribution is effectively stagnant until they become of working age.
- They spend most of their early life consuming, and at a rate that requires high replacement of consumable goods. Clothes, food, educational materials, healthcare items, hygiene items are the fundamentals for a well-raised child, well nourished as well thus preventing poor nutrition diseases like rickets etc, not factoring in child-specific luxury goods like toys, hobbies and other fashion goods. And these are bought in larger quantities over a child's lifetime until they become of age. Add a cost of living crisis and you have a deep problem, a real increase of spending every 6 - 12 months in a child's life that adds up exponentially.
- Education was emphasized during the late turn of the Millennium as the preferred route in western countries. There is even more time where a person is not potentially contributing to their full capacity until they achieve their undergraduate or post-graduate. And if they fail to put that degree to use, then they fail to contribute directly in the way that they were intended to contribute by specializing.
- Stigmatization of parents and the high standards that society expects of them. You cannot discipline your child physically (in my opinion, there is a scale of acceptability, but complete absence of discipline means its difficult to actually keep your children from causing problems in your own delicate family life), you cannot use your children to care for your younger children (this was common for post-war Britain as an example), you cannot take your children to work to see how you work and try to learn skills themselves, which leaves you only to give theoretical examples to the child of how they should operate. There are of course, REAL examples of abusive parents, but the fear of the system taking your children means that some people are scared of raising children WRONG, therefore, they don't do it.
Think about common responses you hear about people not having kids, reductive ones. "Children are expensive.", "Children are a pain.", "I don't think I can raise a child right." The above explanations underpin those anxieties. Western society values children but glorifies the positives without understanding the intrinsic costs. It is a gamble to raise children now, and you get nothing back for it until they are 18. And even then, many of the children who came from a generation where these problems started happening (like myself), still live with their parents or are dependent on their parents.
the black death bit is also a bit different because the age structure was different at the time
Definitely.
Indian here, yes we are overly populated country, but fertility rates have fallen and continue to fall. Out of 28 Indian states/provinces only 3 have TFR above 2.1 i.e. replacement level TFR, rest 25 have TFR between1.5 and 1.9. Urban fertility rates have fallen below 1.5 and even in rural areas TFR is below 2.0. In certain metropolitan areas like New Delhi, Chandigad, Mumbai , Kolkata etc TFR is even as low as 1.1 to 1.3- Kids are expensive, schooling, rents, healthcare is costly and most of Indians have little social security net that means families think twice before giving birth to a child. Thanks to better education to women and their participation in employment, women are marrying later in life and having kids even later, now this means that the fertile years of women are reduced. Let me give anecdotal evidence, me coming from western India our TFR is 1.7 and falling, in our building we have 40 flats and when I was little most families had 2 kids some rarely had 3 , now 25 years later most families have 1 kid and some have 2 kids. In our family my grandpa generation had 4 kids, but my fathers generation had either 2 or 1 children only. I am yet to see a family in my neighbourhood with 3 kids, agreed I have not seen each and every family but when I go out to walk I see only max 2 kids or less. Yes anecdotal evidence but official statistics by Census bureau of India validates my observation.
At 34:20 you show projected population of India in 2100 as 1.5 Billion, in my opinion the population will go even lower than that by 2100 as we get developed and richer people wont be motivated to have children, we are experiencing now what Europe experienced in 1980's or 1970's. Certain demographics like Muslims of India are still having more kids than Hindus and Christians and Buddhists and Sikhs, but even they are slowing down but a slower rate.
I am happy about this population decline, less people less problems, lesser stress on infrastructure and lesser harm to environment. Some people think well huge population is advantage I dont know why is that the case, we need skilled and quality workforce not unskilled less qualified population that we have now, Switzerland with its miniscule population has far more economic impact on world than India or Nigeria. In future AI, Robotics, Automation will take away low skilled jobs, even low end white collar jobs like Coding and Software testing in which Indian companies have earned their name might go obsolete due to stuff like ChatGPT. BPO and Call center jobs might be automated by Chat Bots and AI, then what our semi skilled workforce going to do? Hence I think moderate skilled population is far better than humongous unskilled untrained population whose contributions are mediocre at best.
In most equations like GDP, Per Capita Income, population is in denominator and if that denominator is significantly reduced then even with same numerator, we will improve on most metrics.
Sorry for a long rant, but I wish to see India which is less populated and people enjoy a clean and healthy life. Overpopulation is a bane and I am somewhat happy that India's population is on a downward slope. Peace!
Amazing, how you have put and articulated so well all the things about demographics and its global impact.
It seriously not discussed enough anywhere.
You have done amazing work in putting this info. Next generation is not ready for this.
ALL LIVING STANDARDS WILL BE GOING DOWN SHORTAGES OF FOOD, PRODUCTS ETC
@anshulkatare Thank you very much!
I strongly suspect fertility rate in Paraguay is under 2.1. Their 2022 census came with 1.4 million less people than expected, in a country of 6.1m people, that's massive (should have been 7.5m)! It is not just emigration either, it is poorly done projections from the 2002 census since the 2012 census was also bad. They estimated a fertility rate (2.5) which is probably much higher than the real one (we'll know when the final data of their census is released).
Point in question: fertility might well be falling faster than estimated in countries with poor measurements.
In Brazil only 203 million people were accounted, when it should've been 215 million... This is happening everywhere...
@tiagomd3811 And then Brazil will probably peak at around 215 million rather than the 230 million projected...
@@tiagomd3811 Indeed the case of Paraguay is just more extreme as data has been worse
@FOLIPE Huge part of Latin America is going to experience massive demographic issues.
@@kaiserbauch9092 You should do a video on Latin America too. It was seen by the west in the 70s and 80s to be a 2nd Africa when it came to demographics and civil conflict, but it is narrowing the gap with the west in demographics very fast... At least Brazil, Colombia and Uruguay are. Argentina and Central America are in a better place.
We can only hope our economies catch up too or we will have a lot of problems in the future, like a second eastern europe, with aging populations but only mildly rich.
If Europe wants to insist that immigration is the only solution to its population aging problem, then they should revise its immigration laws by only allowing people from the developing countries with higher TFR like Latin American countries and the Philippines to come into Europe because they are Christians that can be easily assimilated to European society, unlike Arab and Sub-Saharan African Muslims.
The Mexicans/ people from south America have immigrated relatively fast with American society. Most third generation Mexican kids don't know Spanish
Agreed. Filipinos are the best kind of immigrants in my country. (Australia)
But, muh racism!!!
Screw that, I prefer Japan and South Korea's approach. Be highly educated or stay out.
It's true that Filipinos assimilate fairly well, but even our TFR dropped below 2.1 in the past few years. The point will come where we will also not be a sustainable source of immigration, so the only real solution for European states is to address the fertility problem.
Besides, most potential Filipino immigrants will not be willing to learn French, Spanish or another European language when the Anglophone countries just have a better deal for migrants, economically speaking.
@@goshawk4340Can confirm this is true.
Love the humour in this one. Makes the doom a bit more digestible.
I am glad to hear that!
Now:
Germany, Hong Kong, Japan, Austria, Switzerland, Belgium, South Korea, Finland, Netherlands, (Canada), (UK)
5-10 years: China, Italy, Taiwan, Denmark, Greece
15-25 years: Spain, Portugal, Czechia, Poland, Hungary, Slovakia, Romania
30 years: Russia, Brazil, Iran
It's so sad that this is happening, and wouldn't have taken a lot to prevent this. I mean, the fertility rate only needs to be 2.1 for a population to be stable, and a lot of people have 4, 5, or 6 kids! I grew up in a family of 6 kids. People just postpone having kids until it's too late, because the culture has told them that they need to focus on work or traveling or something like that, and then people discover it's too late to have kids in your mid 30s!
How would it not take a lot to change this? How would you do it? Force people to have children? As he mentioned in the video keeping the 2.1 ratio would only result in an even higher world population and even more dire problems from consumption. I think the best we can do is lowering the population in a controlled way, which unfortunately means removing the older population.
It doesn’t take much to avoid this! You have to just force every women to be straight, want children, and want upwards of two or three children.
That takes a significant amount, you’d have to have an abnormally religious population and proper immigration to fix this and sadly, developed nations aside from the U.S don’t have that.
It's too late for women, not men. Men can easily have a family in their 40s or 50s.
@@Rakhtor overpopulation is a myth, it was disproven many many times. Besides this 0.1 is not to increase population but to maintain it for those who for many reasons like: disease, injury, genetics etc etc couldn't get children at all.
Also there are more people today that go to universities, and many even go to study at masters (and PhD) levels. And this means that they inevitably start earning money at the age of 26, instead at 18. When will they make children then?
The people that shouldn't be having so many kids are. And the people that should be having more kids are not. Scary.
I've been thinking there could be a link between rising house prices globally and the population aging. Given that most people have the most saved money in their lives after 55 when statistically their last kid leaves home and that right now the biggest generations ever are retiring (future ones will probably be bigger as a share of younger generations) in the richest world we've ever had, you could have an army of people that wouldn't wanna pay rent in their olden days.
This means that if you're a young person in the future unless you have rich parents there is no way you can climb up in the income ladder. This could spell a fertile ground for a racial conflict between haves-Local-whites-kids_in_Europe and have-nots-immigrant-descendants-from-the-Middle-East, considering that the latter group might have to slave away trying to afford a small box where to live.
Here's a radical idea - maybe we could build more houses?
@@alexpotts6520 in many places around the world there is a huge share empty dwellings. If they can‘t find occupants with money NOW what makes you think prices will fall if we build more of the same? It‘s the intrinsic value of a house in the context of this cash flooded generation that is retiring now that is to blame.
@@slavchomarinov9909 The places with empty houses are the likes of Eastern Europe, where a combination of low birth rates and emigration has caused populations to fall. Where houses are lying empty, it's not because they're too expensive but because there just aren't enough people to live in them all.
Indeed, in such places housing tends to be pretty cheap, whereas in places where there's a shortage of housing it's completely unaffordable. Supply and demand, innit?
@@alexpotts6520 yeah.....I think China tried that.....they have HUNDREDS OF MILLIONS of apartments built purely on speculation and as one of the few "investment" strategies allowed by CCP.
*THEY ARE EMPTY*
YT is full of demolition vids showing a dozen, 20+ floor apartment blocks.
Crap quality and only a few years old
The Muslim should be sent back. They are an economic drag....like Blks in USA
Japan has a large Government debt, true, but the private sector has a huge surplus, overall Japan is the largest creditor nation in the world with a net surplus of 3.3 trillion.
The EU might have a large export by volume but they have a 400 bn deficit with China, overall the dependence on exports is minimal, everything we import from China could be made in Europe.
"everything we import from China could be made in Europe."
Hmm.. Europe (EU) imports basically all their energy supplies?
Since when was energy manufacturing ? We need to export manufactured goods in order to pay for our energy imports, not import goods AND energy.
@@willyhill7509 hmm.. you said "imports" so i thought "imports". Weird, i know. Anyway, in the EV manufacturing space China has some advantages over the EU.
@@willyhill7509it CAN be produced in Germany sure. But German wages are too high - any produced item would be too expensive for sale, and Germany don't have enough workers to replace all the Chinese.
There are 26 countries in the EU, not just Germany. We have 2 choices make things in Europe or borrow money to buy things from China, the less we produce ourselves the more we get into debt and the richer China becomes. In the long term we will be bankrupt and China will own the whole world. You might think goods made in China are cheaper, in the short term to medium term yes they are but in the long term it is much dearer because we are outsourcing wealth creation and getting poorer.
Great video, I can't wait to see more of your future content.
Thank you!
The 2020 Brazilian Census results showed that the previous population projection was over estimated in 15 million, at 203 million only instead 218 million. That is probably not only an error in the calculus but also effect of the immigration that have not been accounted since 2010 when Brazil still holded a significant growing economy. After 2012 financial crises in Brasil the amount of people emmigrating rose significantly.
The error was of 12m and the estimation had been 215m, if I'm not mistaken (population count was 203m as you said). The largest estimates of emigration I have seen were of 4m, plus we had covid causing maybe an extra 1m deaths, so we can guesstimate the number of births was 7ish million less than expected. It's a lot (20%+ less than expected) and it's concerning because we already had a low fertility in 2010, but surely it was hit harder than expected due to the economic crisis too (in Argentina the rate plummeted after their 2015 crisis).
UN predictions were/are still 218 million. Also the number of Brazilians living abroad do not match with the number claimed by the countries. US alone claim to have 1.7 million Brazilians residents. My guess is that we are around 8-11 million abroad.
@@WilliamSantos-cv8rr I was talking about national predictions which use the best available data, updating for falling fertility over thee years and more closely tracking reality. I don't know this UN estimate of 218m you refer to. Anyway 8m Brazilian overseas is unlikely, but that'd a stock anyway, I'm talking of flow in the last 10 years, which adds to the stock but doesn't mean it. These embassy numbers are known to be overestiimations and of course they count Brazilians descendants. I doubt there are 8m Brazilians overseas as the largest communities are the one in the US, Portugal (0.5-1m) and then the others (Japan, Paraguay etc) all have well below half a million. At most I suspect there are 5-6m Brazilians + immediate descendants overseas. Also, to be honest I don't believe 4m people left the country in the last 12 years (we can't find that growth in the numbers of brazilians overseas like Portugal and Japan, let alone Paraguay). If I had to throw a guesstimate, I'd say there are 5-6m Brazilians and descendants overseas, 1.5-2m which left in the last 12 years.
The estimations by UN were given by Brazil agencies mid 2010s. The Brazilian goverment "changed" it for 215 M in 2020 for the Census, then they chagee it to 208-7 M during the census and finally got the real number or 203. But if you travel around any city over a Million habitants in developed world you will find a sizable Brazilian community. Actually, you can find a decent amount of Brazilians anywhere, Egypt, Turkey, Angola, Gabon, Nigeria, Indonesia, etc. I myself was counted in Brazil till the census, but been living in Australia for 7 years.
@@WilliamSantos-cv8rrThere's not sizeable Brazilian communities everywhere in the world. A few hundred people in a few major cities may feel like a lot for someone in the bubble but it doesn't make a dent demographically speaking. Basically, where are the hundreds of thousands? The mass migration? Even 5-6m as I claimed is a gigantic number, and where are these people? There isn't enough large communities of Brazilians overseas to account for that... Emigration from Brazil, if it were at the numbers you are talking about, would be closer to twice the number of Moroccans outside of that country. Barred polish-Americans, you are claiming there are as many Brazilians overseas as poles and polish descendents. But where? Not half of people living in Portugal are Brazilian, and yet it's the second community overseas. Giving the same numbers for Brazil and countries like Morocco and Poland is not credible, given the sources we have.
Sometimes the world has to end
Yeah but hopefully Ragnarok style not gotterdamerung style
Oh, please.....
The world isn't ending.
Grow up
@@ep5019 gotta find Baldur and kill him first for that to work and Im pretty sure last I checked Baldur is still alive.
@@SteamboatWillie1233 you wouldn't know where he is?
somewhere in Scandinavia killing his mother but be careful he can only be hurt with mistletoe!!
I think human cloning can help with saving indigenous European and East Asian populations from extinction
I think cloning with lead to molecular degradation. You'd end up with defects like less pigment while global UV radiation picks up, lighter more fragile bones, and unforseen consequences like the clones thinking they're a separate species and should thus enslave you out of superiority. Genetic diversity is powerful but if everyone shares genes 1 bad virus or mutation would be catastrophic.
east asian countries already have robots in industrial and service sector taking over
What's stopping other cultures from using this said technology? Some cultures have more offsprings than others. Even if you have human clones roaming the earth, how are they going to cope with rising costs, inflations, and debts? You're only putting a small bandaid on a big wound.
gotta be rich for that
@@TheSwedishHistorian Yeah, probably make cloning cheap and affordable.
I just love how counter narrative this is to what we have been sold.
I will admit; I was a bit worried about the video when I first clicked, especially because of a few of the top comments, but I find myself humbled and intrigued by your wide-reaching and inclusive, yet firmly ideaological, viewpoints on this future crisis. You are an excellent orator and researcher.
I think you’d find a lot of similarity in your studies and what Nate Hagens, a U.S. based environmental economist, has been saying through his studies. His thesis calls for a “Great Simplification” where most of the world will be forced to convert to a much more humble lifestyle. His arguments are mostly based in the limit of natural resources, but I believe you’ve found evidence that certainly supports the same conclusion.
Excellent work. Excited to see more and continue the discussion; this is the sort of thing that needs to be a major point of modern policy decisions.
@opossumboyo Thank you for your praise!
As we've seen throughout history if you're at the top of the pyramid, replacing the bottom section doesn't effect your position at the top.
The question is, can current generations sacrifice their comfort and short term gains for benefit of the future. Sadly, most of the time, they are not.
I wouldn't children are disgusting and annoying Thank God I don't have any younger siblings that I would have had to be near when they were babies
Most people are not even aware of this problem. As long as children are not made a priority for women this will persist.
You failed go mention Bulgaria, an unprecedented case of demographic collapse.
Truly superior content. Subscribed.
These are official figures. I tend to believe that the actual population across the board is already substantially lower. One of the reasons I tend to believe this to be the case is this. I have traveled far and wide and I always keep coming to the same conclusion. This world is scaringly underpopulated especially when one gets out of the towns and cities. You can drive around even countries like the UK, France, Germany and Spain, and hardly see anyone outside a car all day, with many miles of open countryside in all directions. However, when you do the same in countries like India, Russia, America, Canada, Mexico, Poland, Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria, Sweden, Columbia, Brazil, Argentina, Finland, Norway, and African ones etc etc etc, you hardly see any cars and the people are even harder to find. When one looks at the map and notices that the nearest adjacent road is well over 100 miles if not 3 or more hundreds of miles away and the next tiny village also, and this with no more than a couple of hundred people living there then you suddenly realize that the reason why you can't see many or any people is that there are none to be seen. Vast, and I mean really vast areas of this world have no inhabitants whatsoever, while other vast areas have hardly any inhabitants. In Russia and parts of Eastern Europe, you can drive through what once were clearly fare-sized towns that are now all but completely uninhabited and have clearly been this way for at least a few decades. Rural China has many of these kinds of places, indeed rural China often gives the impression that virtually everyone has mysteriously died of The Black Death, leaving only a few sad people in their 80s to fend for themselves.
If you get off of the major highways in Georgia for example there is nothing but mile after mile of dense forests, the exact same thing as if you had stayed on them. I seriously wondered how The Union and Confederate armies ever managed to find each other without a sat nav. America has far less densely populated states than Georgia with a relatively respectable 71.9 per square mile, It has Wyoming with 5.9, Montana with 2.9, and Alaska with 1.3. While as we know nearly all of these lonely people live in relatively very tiny parts of their massively enormous states. You can be in Calcutta surrounded by humanity to the point of almost panic, but drive just a few miles out of town and there is hardly any human life to be seen in any direction however good your eyesight may be. Even Downtown Orlando can resemble a ghost town until one nervously ventures into a bar or restaurant.
If it is not near the road selling something then where is it? It isn't, is the answer.
Somehow someone managed to persuade us that there are far too many people. How they managed to do this is worth a volume or two. But I could not disagree more. By any objective measure, humanity is already an endangered species and already going effectively extinct at an exponential rate. I have many other reasons to believe that all countries have been deliberately overstating their own populations for many decades, not just China, but all of them. This situation has become so critical in countries like the UK that our government is actively admitting anyone willing to come to the UK mainly so that the British people don't so well notice that they have actually been going extinct since the early 1970s.
They will of course give you many and various reasons why people are not having anywhere near enough children and most of them are perfectly valid to an extent. However, what they won't tell you is the real reason why people from the third or developing world especially, are also not producing anywhere near enough children.
They won't tell you, because they know you won't like it, to say the least. Indeed some may decide to slowly part the perputrator's dermis from the rest of their bodies and throw the remains to the ravenous birds of the air or the devowing beasts of the field. Indeed apparently this has already happened in some parts of Africa. Pakistan, South America, and India, although don't expect that to be on the BBC 9pm News.
@garypowell1540 Thank you for this insight!
But can't like everybody check if the number of their town/ village is correct? How can you manipulate this?
@@willhelmi2095 I can't do anything. This relies on local officials to keep correct records. In nearly all countries central government subsidies and other benefits are determined by the reported population figures so there is inevitably an incentive for local and national governments to over-inflate their own population figures. The level of corruption can vary, but it can run into hundreds of millions of people as was and still is the case in China. The CCP has recently admitted to having overestimated its own population, by around 170 million people under the age of 35. Another problem is families claiming benefits for children that do not exist in Western countries. Estimates vary, but this can account for up to 200,000 children. As one might imagine a population that has notably fewer children will experience a large knock-on effect later on.
@@garypowell1540like in italy, if you go in basilicata, there is literally nobody, 530k for 10k km2, , majority of people lives in 2 cities, in 2019 they were 560k
Or also Abruzzo
And added to your near perfect analysis, people generally count immigration as a patch for the tax loss. Yet the developed world immigrates from one to the other developed country, thus it is a closed system. Yet immigration to the developed world comes from the undeveloped world, which in time will bring huge crisises and changes. Much bigger than what we already seen. A civil war or take over in a European by the Muslim immigrants? Why not in 50 years when the locals will be too old or too few to prevent a take over by the much younger and plenty immigrants. Even a small demo on the subject will hurt the fragile economy much faster than everybody got old, there are so few children anymore etc. Long before the actual event, the economy will be shaken. There is no need to see the end game, the way is already destructive.
I always thought Iranians are alone in their thinking. They're the black sheep of the Mid East, and they're not like Western libs either. It's exciting to see that the ideas you're expressing are exactly what people over here think.
umm what are they thinking?
@@westwoodnik They're like the extinct species of westerners. Classical liberals
@@westwoodnik Quite like classical liberals, with added love for family values
@@EconGun I've seen their women's rights groups as well. The ones protesting Iran's government and philosophy.
They don't realize they're sabotaging their own cause. All they do is complain on social media, they act snobbish, and they waste their energy throwing punches at their own inner circle. Instead of the patriarchy they talk about so much.
That's why Iran's government can put down this stuff so easily. Because they don't put any effort into making their own situation better. They're just nit-picky about details. And Iranian police can just walk right in to end it.
-Kurdish women are a different story, because they actually are goal-oriented. They didn't harp about ISIS on social media. They actually went out and helped in the war effort. And we see the same thing with Ukrainian women as well.
That's what a real independent woman is supposed to be like.
@@eksbocks9438 What you’re talking about is a tiny minority of Iranian women. But Western media likes to focus on that because it promotes their narrative. Everybody over here is complaining that there's something wrong with the algorithms, because our voice isn't reflected. Only select pictures and posts that appeal to the Wes left.
Great job showing screenshots from your comments when you discuss what you’re seeing there. That’s critical when you’re quoting them.
Raise retirement age for childless people by 7 years ...we can't have peoples children whose parents sacrificed so much to raise them being burdened by people who contributed nothing to raise them
They would be protests
@@trevdestroyer8209
That quickly will quite down after enough time has passed and they give up. They don't have the energy.
@@constantinethecataphract5949 I don't think so but maybe
We have no young people to work. Robots don't consume.
I find it somewhat ironic that we talk so much about the climate problem, and have overpopulation with this debate, while the future's decidedly greatest challenge and frightening perspective is not the prospect of about half a meter higher water level in the world's seas, but rather the prospect of empty cradles kindergartens and schools in the future.
yes, ironically, this Mark Twain quote was used in the movie "an inconvenient truth", "It ain't what you don't know that gets you into trouble. It's what you know for sure that just ain't so. ” - Mark Twain
after all, the debate about overpopulation still characterizes the debate, while you simply do not have the ability with your Malthunism and see that small generations that give birth to smaller generations are the way to a world with permanent degrowth,
yes, ironically enough, the battlefields that we see in ukraine now, there will spread like in the abandoned nuclear power plant chernobyl a wasteland that will eventually go from the extreme temperate siberia to central europe deep into china, and down in southern Europe. as we lose population base. to be able to keep the land cultivated.
we are talking loosely about a water rise in the world's oceans of 0.36 centimeters per year. which may reach 0.55 cm per year in the year 2100, and will never reach and give us a maximum of half a meter higher water level, in the world's oceans,
while we talk about degrowth as the future, the problem is not and get degrowth no the problem is how we can kick the old scooter that we call the economy into a world where the population is collapsing with small generations giving birth to smaller generations, still so far into the future that we can see into the future at all,
This brings to mind the lyrics of a French Canadian song: Your great grandmother was one of twelve, your grandmother was one of two, your mother was an only child and you were an accident.
This demographic disaster lies in the selfishness born of consumerism. People have preferred holidays, new cars, investing in property, etc rather than larger families. The move to less family friendly policies, the move to abortion and euthanasia, the introduction of no fault divorce have only added to this. The fact that most developed countries seem set on not helping their younger generations into stability of family and home; but simply pandering to the aging boomer population speaks volumes. This also borne out by resorting to apparently unrestricted immigration to solve the labour shortage.
There would have to be a huge change in society to create the conditions for a balanced culture that puts families first for an increase in the birth rate.
The old people are the problem. We need a maximum voting age and maximum age to run the country.
Wtf are you talking about…
I am before 30 - Emigrated to speed up saving… Currently earning decent salary in Switzerland… I am planning to get a house in some cheaper country as soon as I can.
I am broke dude - I am not going on holidays and I don’t even know how avocado tastes.
I AM RACING AGAINST TIME TO GET A PLACE WHERE I CAN RAISE A CHILD.
Every year prices skyrocket further.
For real fk u all. You ppl are delusional about young generation’s situation. I need to be a millionaire to get a house.
And I am a woman btw. I am not risking homelessness - safety is my priority before getting pregnant.
Marriage in the US is not worth it.
Hopefully it gets fixed soon, Id like too marry and have kids some day.
@@genericascanbe3728it will never get fixed because that’s what the government wants 😂
Until you get rid of abortion on demand and no fault divorce on demand nothing will change.
Women are brainwashed to be proud of killing kids and encourage each other to destroy their relationships and rob men blind.
This is by design.
Until the system completely collapses and women suddenly realise that government enforced entitlements aren't coming for them but bad men are going to hurt them, they won't start to value good men again.
When you rebuild from the ashes, remember that women always outnumber men in a society, they will always vote for their own interests and you will just start the cycle again unless women are religiously, constitutionally and permanently restricted in both their voting rights (should be 20%-25%) and their immoral behaviour.
Depends who you marry and the social context, Amish for example are fine.
@ LarryWater
Correction: Marriage
among the "lower"
(less economically
successful people)
classes is not worth
it.
The government can
support the woman
and kids much better
than her husband; if
he is a low-wage person.
If she has both a boy and
a girl .... Better yet 3 kids.
She is almost always
guaranteed an apartment
with at least 3 bedrooms.
What is going to happen is that the cultures which cherish having children will proliferate, and the cultures which are focused on non-family goals will go into decline. This will be most prominent in nations in which the government has not arrogated to itself the privilege to determine cultural values. Nations whose pro-family segments are the smallest will go into the greatest decline until the recovery takes root and will undergo the most radical cultural changes.
@disgruntledtoons This, while partially true, ignores the fact that people often adapt different cultural patterns than those they have been raised by.
The only cultures that value many children are, for lack of better term, fuck ups. Lazy and not industrious. They have been on the planet they same amount of time as the rest of the world, yet achieve nothing. Thinking that these people are going to step is a joke. They have had 10,000 years to do so and have done nothing. If the West falls, the world will fall into the dark ages.
Yes, not just culture and this needs to be reflected in government policies, tax structures and societal norms/expectations for those countries to be growing
Don't forget that globalized trade is going away which will lead to mass famines in countries that depend on either food or fertilizer imports
In case of " international intervention to prevent Grece from bankrupting" .In reality it was bailing out GERMAN BANKS that had given bad loans, and had brece stopped paying those banks would be in trouble." international intervention" was in essense forcefully paying off german banks, and keeping takxpayers of Europe on hook for that paying off, not letting Grece just not pay and banks take a hit for THEIR bad investment.
The black death would disproportionately kill the elderly since they make up the majority of frail and sickly.
Absolute right! Finally someone attentioning the greatest trouble of all, being demographics
@johanbral5777 Thank you!
If each real couple have just two kids long term stability will be reached in 25 to 50 years
No its if each woman has two kids but we know thats not gonna happen because a lot are single and don't want them
Bangladesh is a Muslim country but it's fertility rate is less than the 2.1 replacement rate
Gender Equality and Women's Empowerment
www.usaid.gov/bangladesh/gender-equality-and-womens-empowerment 😢😂😂
extremely high population density. there's 170 million people plus in an area the size of iowa. the crowding has made it so people are living on top of each other. what's likely is that there will be a big Bangladeshi diaspora soon.
They did a massive child planning campaign. Bangladesh doesn't need more people
Because their land is very small otherwise they also will have good birth rate like Pakistan.
Stop assuming about a nation you don't know it happened because in 1971 Pakistan tried to do a mass genocide and killed young men to eliminate the fighting population, and that's why women needed to work and also government tried to control population
I really do wonder if in places like Korea, where literally most voters will be retired on pension and have no grandkids soon (and that isn't an exaggeration), will they not care about anything but voting for higher pensions, future (that they don't care about or have any weight in) be damned? Maybe democracy will fail entirely. Certainly the economy will either way once it starts shrinking every year endlessly.
Another thing to note is that it is still too early to say, but it's possible the birth rates will continue to drop even further over the next generation. South Korea is down to 0.7-0.8 now, what if it is 0.5 in 20 years time, or lower? It might turn out that way. It's completely ridiculous, this matters more than pretty much anything any politician ever talks about, but you barely hear about it.
Well written, and presented. A noticeable improvement in quality. A question. If logevity is decreased, would fertility rate increase?
unlikely .. high fertility is correlated with optimism.. if people realize that on top of all modernity’s problem their life expectancy is also shrinking they’ll be even more reticent to “waste” what little time and resources they have left raising an inordinate number of kids
how would the 2 correlate? I doubt it.
I don't know. A lot of this is psychologically dependent on the woman.
Considering that our dating culture revolves around female choice.
Fertility wouldn't increase in absolute numbers but the age structure would change
Maybe this is what the USA doesn't fix the obesity epidemic. It needs something to limit the number at the top of the pyramid. McDonalds will do it.
This guy thinks Africa doesn't produce scientists and entrepreneurs 😂. The notion that Africa will only be exporting raw materials to the developed world is funny. Underestimate Africa at your own peril. Africa has the highest economic growth rate among all the continents, just for your information.
You have no electricity lmao
@@Heatwave9000 idiot! 😂.
@@Heatwave9000 population decline is making u angry that non Europeans are migrating to your land. LET IT BE 😂.
@@pkom6418 The delusional racism and self proclaimed superiority that generated their societal wealth will also be their downfall.
thank you for your work!!! :) as always
368 comments and only 37 likes...something is wrong here. Awesome video, sir!
Who told you that Canada has natural population? Those 500k that we add every year are immigrants, we have lots of people leaving as well
Each individual needs to take responsibility for this... talking about someone else fixing the issue while people just keep commenting on the problem doing nothing about it.
Fertility rate is decrasing all across the globe. Soon enough Fertiity rate for central asian,some arab countries and bangladesh, indonesia and some african countries are decrasing toward 2.1. Population Control is not an agenda is countries like Pakistan, afghanistan and some central African countries but still decreasing due to issues like inflation and unemployment fertility rate is decreasing in cities. The developed coutries like germany US australia and Canada counter such issues by taking lot of SkillFull labour from asian and african countries. Population Increased at a great pace in industrail Era because of high productivity and Also population Control was not even a thing before industrial Revolution, But after Industrial Revolution The mother Nature is damaged also at a great pace because of Increasing consumerism and Population Control Became Inevtible to make peace and co existence with Nature. Women Becoming independent and self sufficient is also reason of population decrease. One thing I do not understand is in developed Countries one cannot affort to have a Baby While in Poor countries People are having Dozens of Babies, doesn't matter how bad qualtiy a life Could be. In rich Countries people want to live life fully. and spent all the money on their leisure rather than caring for the future of their country. Millions of youth in Pakistan and India (somehow India is getting better) are suffering from unemployment and learing foreign language like japanese chinese french and german is common in Pakistan and No foreign Invester is ready to invest in Pakistan because of Political Turmoil, Security reasons and economic instability and the government is also doing nothing to facilitate its young gerneration in seeking work visa and study visa toward foreign countries. A person has to wait for four to five months to get to germany for study visa.
In my opinion the leading driver for the declining fertility rate in Europe is the age woman get married and have children.
In Texas it’s still very common for woman to marry under 20 and start having children within a year of marriage.
I know this is an issue worldwide but lack of housing is probably the biggest problem and especially price to pay ratios for housing. Especially since houses need to be built to be robust since we are such cold climates and are often too small to have many children.
The breakdown of patriarchy in developed countries has led to a decline in fertility.
I would rather die than live in patriarchy
@@trevdestroyer8209 Do you even know what patriarchy is?
@@broadbulgarianism9062 that a man(father or husband) has control over a woman
& the flourishing of feminism.
@@trevdestroyer8209 well we need to figure out a way to both make women and men want kids. Antagonising each other won’t do shit and will make everything much, much worse.
If our economies are oil-fed balloons, bursts are fact. Technology must follow complete science, not greed or lobbyism.
One of the most interesting observertion about this problem is how it's gonna lead to the eventual industrialisation of Africa. If the western and eastern countries demographics collapse, the biggest consumer and labor market in the world will be Africa. Far more people in working and consuming age than anywhere in the world.
Inverstor will be incentivized to invest in these countries to have any significant return on their money. And immigrant from these countries in the western world will have a lot more advantage than european or american invertors in african countries because they are a lot more familiar with their structure and even tho they can't muster the same amount of capital as western investors, they will win out in the long terms due to their strategical advantage in the field.
In Senegal we are starting to see the process. Migrants are investing more and more in the countryand right now I work in a canadian company set up by a senegalese immigrant in canada and senegal. We are seeing a large number of companies being started by Senegalese people who migrated to France, Canada or the USA.
The scale is still small right now because there is not much incentive to invest here when the western populations are gonna be stable for the next 30 years but after 2050 when their biggest generation die out, i see a new scamble for africa in the horizon.
The industrialization would lead to falling birth rates in Africa. Children will go from hands to harvest back to more mouths to feed.
@@skylinefever yes but that demographic transition will take 200years like the western one. In the long term industrialization will always lead to falling birth rates anyway but in the meantime until Africa fully transitions, it is going to be one of the biggest economic hubs in the next century.
I'm not African but I saw a similar story about Somalia a couple months ago. Even though it is probably the most war-torn country on the continent, Mogadishu is experiencing a construction boom due to the improving security situation, which is fueled largely by Somali communities in places like the UK and US.
the IQ will be a major hurdle
@@TrueNativeScot IQ only involves an hypothetical ability to resolve a puzzle, it doesnt meassure intelligence, If you have ever stepped on a college you will see a few Africans who are into science focused degrees. If that isn't smarter than people like you, then idk what more of an "IQ" fallacy can give sustainability to that.
The belief in their own insularity from the coming demographic crisis is so characteristic of the ethos of the environmentalist movement: Someone else is going to pay for it.
This is the greatest news of the century.
Discourage, even reverse urbanisation. All problems solved.
100
urbanisation is a big issue when it comes to these things for sure. but the problem is a lot of economic growth is fueled by urban centers.
@@WastedBananas Demographic decline IS a problem for the URBAN economy. The farmers and tribals and pastorals will not feel any existential crisis if modern economy models failed. But if rural demographics can give impetus to surplus urban “demographics” then they need to be rural so as to make cities thrive. Otherwise, you are on downward spiral. Make Rural Great Again.
TBH, economists say only 1% of US population creates all food and agricultural produce,In surplus, and it is a good thing because the rest of the labour is in modern economy of manufacturing and service sectors. But cities are a problem, demographically.
In India, 50% of the labour force is in Agriculture and accounts for less than 20% of the economy?
And India is growing leaps and bounds but not like China. China leap frogged India massively. But here we are. China is dying and India is supposed to be the Economy to look out for.
Why? Because in India, growth happens naturally. We are not Capitalist. We are “Socialist” by constitution with an amendment. But we let things flow, naturally.
That’s why we never had a meteoric rise, but we don’t have a meteoric fall in the future.
And I am saying all this as an Indian, knowing we are the 100th poorest nation today or even poorer but we don’t subscribe to quick growth and forever darkness.
That’s why I said, discourage or even reverse urbanisation, in the lon term, most Humanity should be creating food. Leave cities for scientists and AI and stuff. Otherwise, we won’t reproduce at all. Cities are a deathbed for fertility.
I don’t think everybody here understands that by the time the world is in a place to actually resolve this issue, we will all be one of the elderly.
Great content and the humour