A Random Walk Down Wall Street | Burton Malkiel | Talks at Google
Вставка
- Опубліковано 30 вер 2024
- Dr. Burton G. Malkiel, the Chemical Bank Chairman's Professor of Economics at Princeton University, is the author of the widely read investment book, A Random Walk Down Wall Street. He has also authored several other books, including the recently published The Elements of Investing.
Dr. Malkiel has long held professorships in economics at Princeton, where he was also chairman of the Economics Department. He also served as the dean of the Yale School of Management and William S. Beinecke Professor of Management Studies. Dr. Malkiel is a past president of the American Finance Association and the International Atlantic Economic Association, and a past appointee to the President's Council of Economic Advisors. He continues to serve on several corporate and investment management boards.
Wish we could have seen his slides!
Check out his other presentation on here called burton malkiel part 1. It's a similar presentation with graphs and slides.
In the question of whether the assets in the 401K should be the same as the assets in the non-retirement account, Malkiel completely ignores the effect of taxes. Clearly, you are better off if you dividend and income-producing investments are in the tax-free account rather than vice-versa.
PqAa
Yes, Mr. Burton, you right, it does work. Thank you very much for your book.
Dr. Burton is an outstanding human being. Regardless of his career he is a man who is happy, well healed and has great insight. I must watch.
Thompson Frank Lee Kimberly Anderson Mary
Very smart man! History has vindicated him.
I wonder what has happed to those Chinese funds he recommended, 13 yrs later.
I’m another Warren. I’m right here. I DCA Bitcoin tho
51:00 This might be an issue in the future
Jim Simmons walks in .... Hold my cigar
If 14 active funds beat the index over 9 yrs, but most of those were below the index in the tenth year. Did they produce significantly higher total returns over the full 10 yrs, and what about over a 20 year period. I used portfolio visualiser, which just works for investors in the US and found over the period from 2000 to 2009 the S&P 500 index produced a negative return if you invested a lump sum in 2000. But over the 21 Yr period from 2000 to the present S&P 500 produced good results. But over that terrible period from 2000 until 2009 I found some active US equity funds that produced good results and continued to produce very good results for the whole 21 year period from 2000 onwards.. And I see the Chinese economy has produced much higher gfp than most other countries, but it doesn't appear to have produced higher returns for investors. And it seems like the economy and stock markets don't move in the same direction most of the time. As ordinary working class people appear to drive economies when they get payed enough and the wealthy, Institutional investors and pension funds drive stock markets
For sure. More buyers drive up the price regardless of GDP, or earnings. However, company earnings matter more LT. More sellers drive down the market. If you don't trust the government, then people will be less comfortable in investing in dictatorships like China. In US we have audited earnings. That is why once in a while the SEC punishes crooks badly..lol A miriad of other factors affect such as inflation wages, availabilty of raw materials, and political stability, and alternative investments as he pointed out. Sadly, the current US deficit is a cross to bear; I hope there is a solution, but I think it will be a while. People like this man could possibly help them instead of polilticians, who are mostly law people.
(He mentioned the efficient market theory .)
Malkiel easier on the ear at 1.5 speed.
Sure why not create index bubbles. Fuck it.
Google: the place where you can find whatever information you want except 'Talk at Google' 's slides.
lol
I would love to see the slides for this talk. Does anyone know where I can get them?
@Jon Tyson
It's true that income producing investments (call this IPI) have a tax advantage in a Roth type retirement account, but you ultimately need to consider your investment objectives and alternatives. For example, age is a very important factor. If you're young, you'd probably benefit more in the long run from funds which seek aggressive capital growth (e.g. small and mid cap funds) than from funds which focus on IPI. Thus, you might choose not to have any retirement money in IPI until you're much closer to retirement and need to reduce risk. At the same time, it could make sense to have IPI in your non-retirement account to diversify/reduce volatility and if you plan to use the money for things before retirement.
I think this speech violates UA-cams TOS.
Disagree. A stock that falls 50% needs 100% to break even and a stock that falls 75% needs a whopping 300% just to break even!
No bonds for me. I'll take market volatility over underperformance.
Cool. Just pray we don't get a 30 year drawdown like they did in Japan.
@@chrisf1600 dca this is bull****
@@johngalt6378 Over the ten years from 2000-2010, S&P 500 lost 30% in real terms. There have been several 15-year periods where US stocks had negative real returns. It probably won't happen again but who knows ? Investing in stocks isn't a guarantee of free money, it's called a risk premium for a reason.
@@chrisf1600
With bonds and cash inflation is a risk. All assets are risky.
Hell was he right! He knew 💯
Starting 32:30 is the meat of this lecture.
thanks, have a great 2020 and beyond!
What is gently old man 👴 Mr . Malkiel! I am glad to hear him 😊!
i see until 8.00 ant he say and say and say about the financial reflexivity just better explained by soros in almost all his books......
🇧🇷
The guy at 48:00 perfectly resonates with what I thought when first saw this dumb argument - speaking about impossibility of market timing, then assuming one can negatively time 10 worst days. Why not build a strategy betting against that guy than!
If you miss the worst 10 days you get rich, I guess. I think the point is that the expected return if you invest for a long time is positive, but if you keep buying and selling, who knows what will happen? Maybe you get rich, maybe you lose all your money, maybe your money stays the same.
Thank you very much
Thanks.
Next step also hilarious: "don't guess stocks, buy index" - goes next to recommending particular countries to invest, as if it's different
But he also says buy the whole market and have some exposure to emerging markets as part of your overall portfolio via index funds. Because usually an active fund will only hold say 30 or 50 stocks as opposed to index of hundreds or thousands of stocks at very low costs, index funds are way more diversified
It is different. There's a lot of evidence showing that expensive markets give lower returns over the long run. A strategy that buys the 5 cheapest global markets has done exceptionally well over time.
@@chrisf1600
Not if you held Russia.
hi
Hi
מסקנותיו:
לא לנסות לתזמן את השוק
לא לנסות לבחור מניות ספציפיות - אלא לפזר סיכונים - רצוי דרך תעודת סל.
לא לבחור במנהלים יקרים.
בהשקעה לפנסיה יש לחלק בין מניות לאגח כשהחלק האגחי גדל לקראת פרישה, מדי פעם יש לאזן את היחסים בין האפיקים.
רצוי להשקיע גם מחוץ לארץ שאתה גר. למשל להיחשף לסין דרך ETF.
תודה על הטיפ, אבל למה אתה כותב בעברית?
לזה לא ציפיתי.
A load of bulldust.
A lot of good momentum traders I know timed almost all tops. Involes some hard work. It's not just watching what the major indices do. You can time the market if you follow what stocks do, what the broad market does.
How about now ?
How'd they do when the market plunged in March 2020 ? Trend followers are by definition slow to get out and slow to bet back in. If it were as simple as waiting for the 200 day MA to cross the 50 day, or something equally naive, everyone would be doing it.
@@chrisf1600 @Chris F It's not that simple. You count distribution days at the highs and reduce exposure as distribution increases. Then start buying back when everyone panic as price undercuts a key MA or support. Start with 1 or 2 and add only if they work.
Trend followers get out as their stocks breach MAs and trendlines. Lot of stocks do this before the market starts breaking down.
Momentum traders are often swing traders. Trend traders hold longer.
MA crossovers are useless. Massive lag. Follow price and volume. MA violation is important as well.