Juan your always more informative than any media because you aren't trying to sensationalize everything like the mainstream media does these days. Just good honest informative reporting. Thank you.
Speaking for myself, your channel has now replaced the many useless ones currently airing at regular broadcast times on other cable and satellite outlets. Juan - thank you for caring and continually putting forth a great effort to communicate simple truth and not commercial hype.
Most informative and illustrative, Juan! Thanks much for sharing and enlightening others, especially outside of California, who may not be aware of the topography and impact of fires to cause mud slides and floods in this corner of the world!
Thanks for your update. More info than our news agencies...last week they covered Orville dam in Wisconsin, if I had not followed you since Jan 2017 I wouldn't have a clue...keep posting and informing
Excellent, the man has a rare ability to explain complicated situations into easily digestible parts. And he seems like a genuine nice guy, One that people enjoy spending time with
I was expecting your report on the debris flows as the story broke on the networks. Thank you for filling in the gaps, showing a nice collection of pictures that aided in your explanation of the conditions prior to the incident, the relationships of the burn areas to the debris damaged locations and the results of those debris flows. The remains of that weather system has moved north and we are supposed to receive our portion, beginning this evening and continuing through tomorrow. Hopefully the burn locations in our area will not receive the large rain amounts and damage here will be negligible. Very informative and nicely done! Thank you once again Juan! Nick, North West Farmer
Juan, ... Great job, as usual. Nothing like informed news from a local source to get to the facts. Power Plant Decisions: You might ask a couple of other questions about the power plant to see where it fits into the larger picture. 1. What is the revenue produced by the plant and what percentage of the DFS' budget is that revenue? 2. Is the plant part of a "Black Start" scenario response for any of the Nuclear Generating facilities on the grid there and what are the implications for the other plant who use Oroville in their emergency response plans...would they have to shut down?? Keep up the good work. Jack Webb would be proud.
Several years ago an area close to my HQ suffered a flood. It was an area that had, historically, never flooded, but substantial rains and other conditions made flooding that year possible. In the aftermath, FEMA forced the condemnation of all of the homes and businesses in that zone, which is now designated as "floodplain", though it's never flooded since. So my question: is there any talk of condemning the structures and forcing the movement of these affected residents and businesses? It looks like a pretty dangerous place to live and/or work. Regardless, my sympathies to all those affected and prayers for the dead and missing. And thanks for the solid, reliable information. Bravo Zulu.......................
Hello again, I find you videos very informative. Even though I live in the Bluegrass area of Kentucky there is much to learn from your clips. Thanks! Tony
Thanks, Juan. As mentioned before, your videos are always interesting and informative. You get to the heart of the matter and tell it like it is . . . unlike conventional media. I too am reading the report you posted on the Oroville dam. Interesting stuff! Have a good one! Dave
Hi Juan. You might want to do a video explaining what the santa Anna winds are. I'm from California, but many of your viewers aren't. Maybe even a video on the unique weather California sees. It's such a beautiful place but many people don't understand how different Californias conditions are. I always appreciate how clear and thorough you are in these videos. I'll say it again, you should be working for a tv station. Your so good at this. Thanks from frosty Boston. ☃️☃️☃️☃️☃️☃️
Awesome update thank you Juan. Speaking in which it's so mild you're not that bundle up on a rainy day in Nevada County in January...beggars can't be choosers I guess. Glad we're getting moisture here in California. ☔️🌧☔️🌧
Thanks Juan, great report as usual. Our agency worked closely with Ventura County and Santa Barbara County a lot in trying to protect residents down there from both fires and debris flows after fires. Unfortunately Mother Nature is all to powerful when you have fire and rain events like they had that move houses off their foundations! Getting out of the way is all you can do and I sure wish folks would have heeded those evacuation warnings.
As usual, I thank you. I live in SoCal, quite near the Canon Fires in the Corona, Anaheim Hills area. Liquifaction is a problem in the canyons and foothills here in rain events or earthquakes.
I live north of Santa Barbara and the Thompson fire ended up being the largest fire in California history. It’s so sad that some of these families homes made it through the fire only to have their houses destroyed by the debris flows, also up to this point 15 lives have been lost in the floods as search and rescue teams are still searching these areas for more survivors.
Building in such locations and how the "improvements" are managed are significant factors in the losses. Unfortunately, such places are often the prettiest, and fantasy beats reality every time.
Juan, you always make pleasant 'listening' and a genuine interest. And you're right about the media. It's noticable how they steer the "news" just where they want it to go. And they have no interest in actually informing,
Great comments. There are so many aspects to this tragedy. The explosive nature of the brush, with incredibly high oil content. The elevation changes, In such a short distance. From sea level to 3000 feet, in what 5 miles, one of the steepest in the National Forest. Development encroachment in the interface. Sustained “Red Flag” warning, more consecutive days than I’ve seen in 30 years. You can’t fight Mother Nature. And of course, all of the other issues discussed. I’m confident, Firescope had a contingency plan for the fire event, I wonder about the rain event, post fire. Good luck to all.
Excellent report, thanks. "Mudslides." Mud flows. I suspect it doesn’t slide unless there’s a very fast creep, which would be a landslide underneath it. Debris flows can include mud. Very good sound with your body mic. It’s too bad the approximately 95% of vloggers on UA-cam can’t or don’t want to learn from your good production recordings to learn from them. Your second focal length cropped your head. Some videographers now record wide in 4K and do digital zooming and repositioning in post to simulate more than one camera but that production requires very fast computers for rendering.
Thanks for that update Juan. I'd like to add something that I heard on Weather.com. They were talking with a hydrologist and he said that when the fires are burning they create a gas that forms a wax under the soil. When it rains, especially hard rains, the water cannot be absorbed by the soil. Then all that water just immediately flows downhill. When the soil is held together by the plant material it can take a day for the water to start working its way downhill. But with no plants and that waxy layer a debris flow and flooding can happen in 15 seconds. Wow. Scary. That hasn't happened here in Sonoma County yet that I've heard about, but we didn't get 5 inches of rain either. But there was definitely concern about flooding here. I used to live in Santa Barbara years ago (the late 60's, early 70's) and I know what those mountains are like. Steep and dry. It's so sad those people in Montecito didn't heed the warning and evacuate.
Hi Melena i,m a retired Navy Meteorologist who also lives near the north bay fire zones, Marin to b e exact. you comment was spot on and its nice to see the public and yourself to be well informed, although some points made in Juans report are incorrect and could be easily misunderstood by his fan base and put them in a situation that could be dangerous , i do like what he does. interesting footnote here with this last storm that was very soaking for us, there was little in the way of debris flow or mudslides in your area . the reason for that i believe is 1. the precip did not measure up to what was forecast , but more important was the pre planning that Sonoma county and the city of Santa Rosa put in place in an effort to stop any mud or debris flow. they have done an outstanding job of in simple terms defense mode of mother nature . your in a excellent area in those regards, just keep a close watch over the next 30 to 45 days to weather reports . the next rain maker will be here early next week and doesnt look to strong at this point
Unlike in Sonoma County, the Thomas Fire was still burning when the rains came. In fact, as of January 10, fire officials were still claiming only 92% containment, even after 2 days of heavy rain. One would think all that rain would have put the fire out completely, but fire officials aren't sure of that. They had no time to complete fire suppression repair, or take other steps to stabilize the slopes. All they could do was order people to stay out of the forest, and to evacuate their homes when the rains came. Southern California had pretty much NO rain before this storm. Usually, fall rains are lighter. They get the plants growing again after the summer drought, and soften up the soil. Then the land is ready for the heavy winter rains. The other thing I have heard is that, while a few other areas in the world have a "Mediterranean climate" (rain in winter, not in summer), southwestern California is actually drier than most of them. For that and other reasons, it's very important to replant with carefully selected California native plants. Sowing non-native grass seed, as was done in the past, has turned out to make the fire cycle disruption even worse, among other problems.
Great explanation, you might want to Google hydrophobic layers + chaparral and you will learn how the fire creates a subsurface water repellent layer down a couple inches in the soil column and when the top layer of soil soaks up rainfall it saturates and slides down the slope on the water proof hydrophobic layer. It's a charcoal related fire ecology issue that is made worse by these super hot fires.
Loved it! MSM isn’t even .000001% as informational Juan, sincerely. It’s not worth my time any longer to watch. Good luck with the report, I’m approximately 1\3 through....NOT light reading lol
Juan, You may be interested in reading part of John McPhee's book THE CONTROL OF NATURE which has a very good chapter ("Las Angelas Against the Mountains") on the continuing efforts to control debris flows in the LA area. The Santa Barbara area has very similar topography, vegetation, and fire-flood cycles.
Here is a link to that book: www.amazon.com/Control-Nature-John-McPhee-1989-08-16/dp/B01FGOG4NG/ref=sr_1_2?ie=UTF8&qid=1515628262&sr=8-2&keywords=the+control+of+nature+mcphee
McPhee also did an excellent book covering the vast Pine Barrens of New Jersey. Some of the pine trees burned so much they mutated to become fireproof! Its called The Pine Barrens, I believe.
Very good info. Seldom do you get good explanation's on internet. Former long time resident of SB, I know all those roads. and have hiked those mountains behind Riviera. Good Job, Thank You.
Flash Flood photos from 2005, Kingman Az. There is a weird sound made by boulders rolling with the flood. You can actually feel them moving. The source of the water was from heavy rains many miles away in the mountains. All kinds of trash caught up in the flood. I was staying with my friend Tony at his place just a few yards from the wash. tonynoble.org/pictures/kingman-flash-flood/
At the Summerland Fire station just mile or so south on 101 they recorded at the peak of this frontal passage and cell anomaly .54" inches in 5 minutes...sustained that's over 6.5"/hr. We only got about 2" to 3" from the storm. This band anomaly could have not hit and get lifted in a worst spot as far as flooding goes. It was all over in a matter of an hour and a bad one at that around 4am.
It just awful whats happening but its really nothing new in this area. I understand people build sometimes where they can but you must also be smart and not build in or near these old drainage areas. Thanks always for great reporting Juan always on top of the things that matter.
Juan, what would really be interesting would be a flyover to show just were the mud and debris actually came from and how much material was involved. When you remark about the amount of heat generated by this wildland fire, what do you mean by "hotter?" Hotter than what? What temperatures? Please note that fuels that burned were very small, as indicated by the small diameter of the tips of the branches of burned shrubs (standing "skeletons" following flame-front passage) . Please explain why some soils did not erode in the burned area along with a description of the erosion processes. Exactly where did the debris flow footage you used for for this piece come from? I'm sure you agree that it is very important to get your reporting right. I'd be glad to help if you need any. Last year I sent you contact info via snail mail. One of these days I'd like to do a flyover, but it will probably not happen for another month or so, long after the story has lost its legs.
Soon as I saw Juan's video here my first thought west back to the landslide of over saturated hillside on Saturday March 22, 2014 at 10:37 AM local time in Oso, Washington which saw a devastating landslide let loose and overran much of the community below killing 43 people and destroying dozens of homes and cutting off part of that community. I was in my car running errands maybe 90 minutes by car south of the area and heard the sad surreal first reports about this disaster. Later that weekend I heard and read the heart wrenching accounts of rescuers forced to wait for the land to cease shifting that day and night while cries for help came from the buried homes. Gradually the cries dwindled and stopped before it was safe enough for rescuers to move in safely. Some died or lived depending on the timing of their daily travel activities that morning. A horrible death for many, alive for a while in their own homes, and crushed gradually that day and night. Again a very sad disaster. My heart went out to those affect that day and to those impacted by this devastating landslide. Count your blessings folks... life is too short.
Rather surprised there werent problems @ the Napa fire area as they seemed to get more rain. Perhaps not as steep or as intense of rain. Also surprised Ojai and Ventura didnt get nailed. I think there was an exceptional dump of rain, as reported by one witness "it was raining regular then suddenly a hard downpour, like a switch was thrown" and of course this at 3 am.
Environmental author Marc Reisner's last book about California is entitled, A Dangerous Place. Nature always bats last. People build and live in places they shouldn't. Where counties should refuse to issue building permits. It only gets worse as millions more cram into the most extreme dangerous areas of California. These really are man made disasters, not natural disasters.
The Tomas fire was in my back yard I literally helped fight to save my place as well as my neighbors. I was lucky to have gotten notification when it started and heard it on the scanner coming my way. I stayed up all that night preparing and moving things and clearing getting ready for the fight. Cell service was down days after and I can remember waiting for it to return so I could see if Juan was going to report on it. It never happened :-(
You were discussing this in an earlier video I believe. The effect of flooding rains on fire damaged land. When I heard about the flood disaster on the radio, I recalled the discussion.
Great video ! Did California give an evacuation notice like they did with the Dam ? A Chicago Weather Man/Person gave a sever weather alert before a tornado outbreak ! (Gave weather reports for SAC earlier in his career !) Thank you for the video ! tjl
So glad not to live down there any more. My family now lives on less money (including mortgage, property tax, etc) than what we spent on just rent down there. Now we take week long vacations in Santa Barbara (and other such places) and enjoy ourselves, instead of scraping by and wishing we could do the things we want.
Great job Huge fans Where was Petes dinosaur? But to be honest Thank you Thank your wife Kiss your baby's Because the level of professionalism you bring to your coverage takes a lot of time Thank you
This is very interesting, soon enough, the one year mark for the thermalito spillway disaster. Why aren't there any controlled burns or anything like that?
Juan, I don't want to come off as conspiratorial, I really don't. However, I'm hearing reports that many of the homeowners who had their houses destroyed, are being denied permits to rebuild. Can you confirm this and possibly see if there is a valid answer as to why? Further, there are other reports that the houses that are not being allowed to rebuild, happen to be in line with the proposed super fast train's future path. Do you know if there is any validity to these reports? Thanks for all you do. And do so well.
Rebuilding in an active slide zone is not permitted in CA. Geological surveys including soils stability tests determine whether or not building permits can be issued. Do you think the property lines haven't been altered by all of that moving earth?
Marcia Noren The property lines can be reestablished by survey methods but the ground topography will be different after a slide. Because the slide took place means that it can happen again; just a case of when.
Well that makes a lot of sense. My father was a pilot and he always said, "its better to be on the ground wishing you were in the air, than being in the air and wishing you were on the ground". I'm from Michigan, Where it just snows.
I'd like to somewhat, and politely, disagree Juan. I follow the fire forensics just like you do so very well with the Oroville incident to a different conclusion: These floods are not a direct result of the Thompson fire, rather the result of the suppressed fuel conditions on mismanaged lands. Everything that happens once these suppressed conditions are created is completely predictable except for the "when". I don't blame the wind, the fire, the rain, the soil, or anything else that is of Mother Nature's hand, rather, I blame first and foremost the mismanagement of the fuel loads, fuel mitigation and especially a failure of land stewardship. "The buck stops nowhere." What a great quote you coined when you said that, friend! This is the exact same situation - man caused this.
Juan one time perfectly said something approximately like this: "Where 100 years of mismanagement meets 50 years of inaction". Of course, there are no true forests where this particular incident took place, still, my understanding is that the chaparral was, in places, over 50 years old.
Bob Frazier In this case I don't think that "man caused this" but the inactivity of man led to it happening. From what I have learned, a particular person did not cause this particular fire to set up the conditions for these floods. Drought , fires, steep terrain, sandy; gravelly, rocky soil, in conjunction with fast hard rains has been known for as long as people have been living in the LA - So. Cal area. What is inexcusable is allowing and promoting the development of these areas for subdivisions and business for monetary gain over the safety of those people and businesses. If these areas were used for farming and ranching, there would not be the same economic devastation occurring. In other words the management of this area lacked a lot and was not taken seriously. Through codes a lot of who can build what and where is enforced but not to the total benefit of the whole community. I will get off my soap box.
Hi Juan, I want to add some interesting info I have found out from a friend who live local. He is a owner/operator truck driver and has been hired to haul massive amounts of rock not the mud or slide area. He informs me that there were three small reservoirs which were completely blown out or emptied and this huge release of water could be a large factor to increasing flow or damages. Of course they water resources department will attribute the cause as the mud flows on hillsides above as causing them to fail. Its interesting that officials are not prepared and have a close eye on these very exposed pipes when they know mudslides are likely during a rain event such as this. They should know a water main breaking on the hillside is very possible especially where it has creek crossings. Here is an article that states main shut-off valves failed to work once they were damaged or broken.... www.independent.com/news/2018/jan/16/water-district-sued-mudslides/ I question as to why are shutoff safety valves even installed if they don't work or go un-monitored in situations which officials already knew was dangerous to public.... Thanks as always for adding insight and covering these types of subjects as I find your reporting very informative.
When I saw the pictures here of the mudslides and the trees & brush piled up against the houses, I couldn't help but think about ....Houston. Yea, I know, there weren't huge mudslides & trees pushed up against the homes, but the flooding was just as destructive to so many homes. But I never see anything about Houston...it's old news now, but I bet it's also getting to be real old for the thousands of folks who are still putting their lives back together after the flooding. Yep...that's our beloved MSM for ya...very short attention & memory spans...at least in these natural disaster events.
Thoughts and prayers for the lost and living in those areas. A viscous circle humans live in. With populations increasing and natural land being developed it is really hard for natural scarification of native plants that require fire as a way of rebirth. Of course we must put the fires out....but with water restrictions, landscaping is frowned upon. With less natural landscaping and almost no personal landscaping temps increase causing even stronger Santa Ana's and drought. That is of course a very basic description of the vicious circle theory. I could see the beginning of this when I lived in the San Fernando valley in the early 80's. So....plant more grass, trees, bushes etc.and so cal will thrive once again. Peace and prayers to all
Juan your always more informative than any media because you aren't trying to sensationalize everything like the mainstream media does these days. Just good honest informative reporting. Thank you.
exactly! only stuff I'm interested in and have some knowledge of...
Fortunately you're "interested in and have some knowledge of" lots of stuff that the rest of us are also interested in.
Speaking for myself, your channel has now replaced the many useless ones currently airing at regular broadcast times on other cable and satellite outlets.
Juan - thank you for caring and continually putting forth a great effort to communicate simple truth and not commercial hype.
Your journalistic skills and delivery put the mainstream to shame.
Professional, evidence based reporting on this tragic event...no drama, no opinion, no accusations...Thank You.
Most informative and illustrative, Juan! Thanks much for sharing and enlightening others, especially outside of California, who may not be aware of the topography and impact of fires to cause mud slides and floods in this corner of the world!
Thanks for your update. More info than our news agencies...last week they covered Orville dam in Wisconsin, if I had not followed you since Jan 2017 I wouldn't have a clue...keep posting and informing
Excellent, the man has a rare ability to explain complicated situations into easily digestible parts. And he seems like a genuine nice guy,
One that people enjoy spending time with
You have an amazing ability to collect pertinent information and deliver factual news. Thank you again🇨🇦
I was expecting your report on the debris flows as the story broke on the networks. Thank you for filling in the gaps, showing a nice collection of pictures that aided in your explanation of the conditions prior to the incident, the relationships of the burn areas to the debris damaged locations and the results of those debris flows. The remains of that weather system has moved north and we are supposed to receive our portion, beginning this evening and continuing through tomorrow. Hopefully the burn locations in our area will not receive the large rain amounts and damage here will be negligible. Very informative and nicely done! Thank you once again Juan! Nick, North West Farmer
Thanks Juan... As always a very informative and professionally done video full of facts and NO fluff... The way news events should be reported.
On seeing this event, on the BBC website, the first thing I thought of was your previous warning video. Quality info from your channel as usual.
Thanks for your efforts to bring us news main stream media doesn’t.
Looking forward to your next report on Oroville.
Juan, ... Great job, as usual. Nothing like informed news from a local source to get to the facts.
Power Plant Decisions: You might ask a couple of other questions about the power plant to see where it fits into the larger picture.
1. What is the revenue produced by the plant and what percentage of the DFS' budget is that revenue?
2. Is the plant part of a "Black Start" scenario response for any of the Nuclear Generating facilities on the grid there and what are the implications for the other plant who use Oroville in their emergency response plans...would they have to shut down??
Keep up the good work. Jack Webb would be proud.
Several years ago an area close to my HQ suffered a flood. It was an area that had, historically, never flooded, but substantial rains and other conditions made flooding that year possible. In the aftermath, FEMA forced the condemnation of all of the homes and businesses in that zone, which is now designated as "floodplain", though it's never flooded since.
So my question: is there any talk of condemning the structures and forcing the movement of these affected residents and businesses? It looks like a pretty dangerous place to live and/or work.
Regardless, my sympathies to all those affected and prayers for the dead and missing. And thanks for the solid, reliable information. Bravo Zulu.......................
We got the news of this shocking event in the UK but not a complete explanation of why it happened. Great reporting.
Once again, Juan, a clear, factual and entertaining report.
Hello again, I find you videos very informative. Even though I live in the Bluegrass area of Kentucky there is much to learn from your clips. Thanks!
Tony
Knew it wouldn't be long before you had a report on this event. Way to be on top of it as always Juan! Thanks!
Thanks Juan for the real look.... VERY devastating... THOUGHTS AND PRAYERS TO ALL...
Thanks, Juan. As mentioned before, your videos are always interesting and informative. You get to the heart of the matter and tell it like it is . . . unlike conventional media. I too am reading the report you posted on the Oroville dam. Interesting stuff!
Have a good one!
Dave
Hi Juan. You might want to do a video explaining what the santa Anna winds are. I'm from California, but many of your viewers aren't. Maybe even a video on the unique weather California sees. It's such a beautiful place but many people don't understand how different Californias conditions are. I always appreciate how clear and thorough you are in these videos. I'll say it again, you should be working for a tv station. Your so good at this. Thanks from frosty Boston. ☃️☃️☃️☃️☃️☃️
See katabatic winds. Also adiabatic warming or cooling.
Informative as usual Juan. I look forward to your updates. Thanks.
Thanks again Juan for another fine report !!
Awesome update thank you Juan. Speaking in which it's so mild you're not that bundle up on a rainy day in Nevada County in January...beggars can't be choosers I guess. Glad we're getting moisture here in California. ☔️🌧☔️🌧
Juan thanks for the update. We will be praying for these poor people. First fire and now water and mud slides. God Bless
Sad situation. What a mess. To say it has been a rough year for California would be an understatement.
I found out about this flood today. So, terrible. :( Thanks for sharing all your knowledge. Helps a lot.
Thanks Juan, great report as usual. Our agency worked closely with Ventura County and Santa Barbara County a lot in trying to protect residents down there from both fires and debris flows after fires. Unfortunately Mother Nature is all to powerful when you have fire and rain events like they had that move houses off their foundations! Getting out of the way is all you can do and I sure wish folks would have heeded those evacuation warnings.
As usual, I thank you. I live in SoCal, quite near the Canon Fires in the Corona, Anaheim Hills area.
Liquifaction is a problem in the canyons and foothills here in rain events or earthquakes.
I live north of Santa Barbara and the Thompson fire ended up being the largest fire in California history. It’s so sad that some of these families homes made it through the fire only to have their houses destroyed by the debris flows, also up to this point 15 lives have been lost in the floods as search and rescue teams are still searching these areas for more survivors.
Building in such locations and how the "improvements" are managed are significant factors in the losses. Unfortunately, such places are often the prettiest, and fantasy beats reality every time.
Thanks Juan. Gave me a better idea of what happened. So sad.
Juan, you always make pleasant 'listening' and a genuine interest. And you're right about the media. It's noticable how they steer the "news" just where they want it to go. And they have no interest in actually informing,
A great job of reporting as usual. Thanks.
Always appreciate your reports! Thanks
Great comments. There are so many aspects to this tragedy. The explosive nature of the brush, with incredibly high oil content. The elevation changes, In such a short distance. From sea level to 3000 feet, in what 5 miles, one of the steepest in the National Forest. Development encroachment in the interface. Sustained “Red Flag” warning, more consecutive days than I’ve seen in 30 years. You can’t fight Mother Nature. And of course, all of the other issues discussed. I’m confident, Firescope had a contingency plan for the fire event, I wonder about the rain event, post fire. Good luck to all.
Prayers and blessings to all those affected by this truly dreadful event!
Excellent report, thanks. "Mudslides." Mud flows. I suspect it doesn’t slide unless there’s a very fast creep, which would be a landslide underneath it. Debris flows can include mud. Very good sound with your body mic. It’s too bad the approximately 95% of vloggers on UA-cam can’t or don’t want to learn from your good production recordings to learn from them. Your second focal length cropped your head. Some videographers now record wide in 4K and do digital zooming and repositioning in post to simulate more than one camera but that production requires very fast computers for rendering.
Thanks for that update Juan. I'd like to add something that I heard on Weather.com. They were talking with a hydrologist and he said that when the fires are burning they create a gas that forms a wax under the soil. When it rains, especially hard rains, the water cannot be absorbed by the soil. Then all that water just immediately flows downhill. When the soil is held together by the plant material it can take a day for the water to start working its way downhill. But with no plants and that waxy layer a debris flow and flooding can happen in 15 seconds. Wow. Scary. That hasn't happened here in Sonoma County yet that I've heard about, but we didn't get 5 inches of rain either. But there was definitely concern about flooding here. I used to live in Santa Barbara years ago (the late 60's, early 70's) and I know what those mountains are like. Steep and dry. It's so sad those people in Montecito didn't heed the warning and evacuate.
That's exactly right! Thanks Melena!
Hi Melena i,m a retired Navy Meteorologist who also lives near the north bay fire zones, Marin to b e exact. you comment was spot on and its nice to see the public and yourself to be well informed, although some points made in Juans report are incorrect and could be easily misunderstood by his fan base and put them in a situation that could be dangerous , i do like what he does. interesting footnote here with this last storm that was very soaking for us, there was little in the way of debris flow or mudslides in your area . the reason for that i believe is 1. the precip did not measure up to what was forecast , but more important was the pre planning that Sonoma county and the city of Santa Rosa put in place in an effort to stop any mud or debris flow. they have done an outstanding job of in simple terms defense mode of mother nature . your in a excellent area in those regards, just keep a close watch over the next 30 to 45 days to weather reports . the next rain maker will be here early next week and doesnt look to strong at this point
Unlike in Sonoma County, the Thomas Fire was still burning when the rains came. In fact, as of January 10, fire officials were still claiming only 92% containment, even after 2 days of heavy rain. One would think all that rain would have put the fire out completely, but fire officials aren't sure of that. They had no time to complete fire suppression repair, or take other steps to stabilize the slopes. All they could do was order people to stay out of the forest, and to evacuate their homes when the rains came. Southern California had pretty much NO rain before this storm. Usually, fall rains are lighter. They get the plants growing again after the summer drought, and soften up the soil. Then the land is ready for the heavy winter rains.
The other thing I have heard is that, while a few other areas in the world have a "Mediterranean climate" (rain in winter, not in summer), southwestern California is actually drier than most of them. For that and other reasons, it's very important to replant with carefully selected California native plants. Sowing non-native grass seed, as was done in the past, has turned out to make the fire cycle disruption even worse, among other problems.
Excellent report Juan, posted to everyone I'm connected with on FB.
nice , thank you for the viewing
Prayers to all being involved in this!
Great explanation, you might want to Google hydrophobic layers + chaparral and you will learn how the fire creates a subsurface water repellent layer down a couple inches in the soil column and when the top layer of soil soaks up rainfall it saturates and slides down the slope on the water proof hydrophobic layer. It's a charcoal related fire ecology issue that is made worse by these super hot fires.
Yes! I should have discussed that. very interesting.
Loved it! MSM isn’t even .000001% as informational Juan, sincerely. It’s not worth my time any longer to watch. Good luck with the report, I’m approximately 1\3 through....NOT light reading lol
Juan,
You may be interested in reading part of John McPhee's book THE CONTROL OF NATURE which has a very good chapter ("Las Angelas Against the Mountains") on the continuing efforts to control debris flows in the LA area. The Santa Barbara area has very similar topography, vegetation, and fire-flood cycles.
That should be Los not Las.
Here is a link to that book:
www.amazon.com/Control-Nature-John-McPhee-1989-08-16/dp/B01FGOG4NG/ref=sr_1_2?ie=UTF8&qid=1515628262&sr=8-2&keywords=the+control+of+nature+mcphee
McPhee also did an excellent book covering the vast Pine Barrens of New Jersey. Some of the pine trees burned so much they mutated to become fireproof! Its called The Pine Barrens, I believe.
Thanks again Juan - top shelf!
Citizen journalism at its best.
Very good info. Seldom do you get good explanation's on internet. Former long time resident of SB, I know all those roads. and have hiked those mountains behind Riviera. Good Job, Thank You.
Thank you Juan.
Fantastic Juan, thank you.
Flash Flood photos from 2005, Kingman Az. There is a weird sound made by boulders rolling with the flood. You can actually feel them moving. The source of the water was from heavy rains many miles away in the mountains. All kinds of trash caught up in the flood. I was staying with my friend Tony at his place just a few yards from the wash. tonynoble.org/pictures/kingman-flash-flood/
Thanks for the informative update "Blancolirio"......
At the Summerland Fire station just mile or so south on 101 they recorded at the peak of this frontal passage and cell anomaly .54" inches in 5 minutes...sustained that's over 6.5"/hr. We only got about 2" to 3" from the storm. This band anomaly could have not hit and get lifted in a worst spot as far as flooding goes. It was all over in a matter of an hour and a bad one at that around 4am.
Always enjoyable and informative!
Great work as always. Thank you Juan.
Thanks for the update.
It just awful whats happening but its really nothing new in this area. I understand people build sometimes where they can but you must also be smart and not build in or near these old drainage areas. Thanks always for great reporting Juan always on top of the things that matter.
Thank you Juan
Thank you JB.
TKS JUAN...NOT SURE WHY THE DESERTION AS WE CAN ALL HAVE OUR OWN THOUGHTS AND NOT DISCOURAGE OTHERS TKS RON
Thanks,great report.
Better news then mainstream. Yall stay safe over there. any flooding were you are because of the fires in your area
You got the best knowledgeable report.
Juan on the spot. Thanks
Thanks Juan
Juan, what would really be interesting would be a flyover to show just were the mud and debris actually came from and how much material was involved. When you remark about the amount of heat generated by this wildland fire, what do you mean by "hotter?" Hotter than what? What temperatures? Please note that fuels that burned were very small, as indicated by the small diameter of the tips of the branches of burned shrubs (standing "skeletons" following flame-front passage) . Please explain why some soils did not erode in the burned area along with a description of the erosion processes. Exactly where did the debris flow footage you used for for this piece come from? I'm sure you agree that it is very important to get your reporting right. I'd be glad to help if you need any. Last year I sent you contact info via snail mail. One of these days I'd like to do a flyover, but it will probably not happen for another month or so, long after the story has lost its legs.
I like getting my news from you Juan, because unlike the MSM, you tell the truth!
Soon as I saw Juan's video here my first thought west back to the landslide of over saturated hillside on Saturday March 22, 2014 at 10:37 AM local time in Oso, Washington which saw a devastating landslide let loose and overran much of the community below killing 43 people and destroying dozens of homes and cutting off part of that community. I was in my car running errands maybe 90 minutes by car south of the area and heard the sad surreal first reports about this disaster. Later that weekend I heard and read the heart wrenching accounts of rescuers forced to wait for the land to cease shifting that day and night while cries for help came from the buried homes. Gradually the cries dwindled and stopped before it was safe enough for rescuers to move in safely. Some died or lived depending on the timing of their daily travel activities that morning. A horrible death for many, alive for a while in their own homes, and crushed gradually that day and night. Again a very sad disaster. My heart went out to those affect that day and to those impacted by this devastating landslide. Count your blessings folks... life is too short.
Thanks, Juan!
Great report, serious mess to have to deal with!
Good infos as usual. Thank you!
Rather surprised there werent problems @ the Napa fire area as they seemed to get more rain. Perhaps not as steep or as intense of rain. Also surprised Ojai and Ventura didnt get nailed. I think there was an exceptional dump of rain, as reported by one witness "it was raining regular then suddenly a hard downpour, like a switch was thrown" and of course this at 3 am.
Thanks once again I will enjoy watching this
good reporting as always Juan, keep up the good work :)
Environmental author Marc Reisner's last book about California is entitled, A Dangerous Place. Nature always bats last. People build and live in places they shouldn't. Where counties should refuse to issue building permits. It only gets worse as millions more cram into the most extreme dangerous areas of California. These really are man made disasters, not natural disasters.
The Tomas fire was in my back yard I literally helped fight to save my place as well as my neighbors. I was lucky to have gotten notification when it started and heard it on the scanner coming my way. I stayed up all that night preparing and moving things and clearing getting ready for the fight. Cell service was down days after and I can remember waiting for it to return so I could see if Juan was going to report on it. It never happened :-(
You were discussing this in an earlier video I believe. The effect of flooding rains on fire damaged land. When I heard about the flood disaster on the radio, I recalled the discussion.
Yep! ua-cam.com/video/VZjIrTOKH88/v-deo.html
Ah yes! Not too long ago :o)
blancolirio suggestion expres sympathy in a next report
Nice presentation
Great video ! Did California give an evacuation notice like they did with the Dam ? A Chicago Weather Man/Person gave a sever weather alert before a tornado outbreak ! (Gave weather reports for SAC earlier in his career !) Thank you for the video ! tjl
I believe only a warning...not sure though.
Wow GOD help these people Amen.
If there's a God, I'm pretty sure He was the one who did this to those people.
So glad not to live down there any more. My family now lives on less money (including mortgage, property tax, etc) than what we spent on just rent down there. Now we take week long vacations in Santa Barbara (and other such places) and enjoy ourselves, instead of scraping by and wishing we could do the things we want.
From Flash Fires to Flash Floods, insurance prices must be sky high.
Montecito, most expensive area of Santa Barbara
Great job
Huge fans
Where was Petes dinosaur?
But to be honest
Thank you
Thank your wife
Kiss your baby's
Because the level of professionalism you bring to your coverage takes a lot of time
Thank you
This is very interesting, soon enough, the one year mark for the thermalito spillway disaster.
Why aren't there any controlled burns or anything like that?
thanks juan
Juan,
I don't want to come off as conspiratorial, I really don't. However, I'm hearing reports that many of the homeowners who had their houses destroyed, are being denied permits to rebuild. Can you confirm this and possibly see if there is a valid answer as to why?
Further, there are other reports that the houses that are not being allowed to rebuild, happen to be in line with the proposed super fast train's future path. Do you know if there is any validity to these reports?
Thanks for all you do. And do so well.
Interesting, officials may be reconsidering the flood plain locations.
Forgive me, but to a guy who lives in the Midwest, near some sizable rivers, it seems strange to think of "Flood Plains" in mountain country.
Rebuilding in an active slide zone is not permitted in CA. Geological surveys including soils stability tests determine whether or not building permits can be issued. Do you think the property lines haven't been altered by all of that moving earth?
I have no idea Marcia, I live in Missouri. I was just trying to learn.
Marcia Noren The property lines can be reestablished by survey methods but the ground topography will be different after a slide. Because the slide took place means that it can happen again; just a case of when.
first view! Cool. thanks Juan, i appreciate the update. When are you going to fly over Orville dam again? I have watched all of your videos, big fan!
soon as the weather clears!
Well that makes a lot of sense. My father was a pilot and he always said, "its better to be on the ground wishing you were in the air, than being in the air and wishing you were on the ground". I'm from Michigan, Where it just snows.
Juan Browne --Correction: "Thomas Fire" (Not "Thompson Fire" ? )
Thanks, it's nice to finally found out what happened. I never even bothered to look at the MSM. I decided to be uninformed over being misinformed.
Thanks Juan.
thanks, Juan, better than news broadcasts. I liked your bumper or trailer music from the Oroville reports better than this.
It is the Thomas Fire not Thompson.
I'd like to somewhat, and politely, disagree Juan. I follow the fire forensics just like you do so very well with the Oroville incident to a different conclusion: These floods are not a direct result of the Thompson fire, rather the result of the suppressed fuel conditions on mismanaged lands. Everything that happens once these suppressed conditions are created is completely predictable except for the "when". I don't blame the wind, the fire, the rain, the soil, or anything else that is of Mother Nature's hand, rather, I blame first and foremost the mismanagement of the fuel loads, fuel mitigation and especially a failure of land stewardship. "The buck stops nowhere." What a great quote you coined when you said that, friend! This is the exact same situation - man caused this.
Forest Management is key, but Tree-Huggers are not on
board!
Juan one time perfectly said something approximately like this: "Where 100 years of mismanagement meets 50 years of inaction". Of course, there are no true forests where this particular incident took place, still, my understanding is that the chaparral was, in places, over 50 years old.
Bob Frazier In this case I don't think that "man caused this" but the inactivity of man led to it happening. From what I have learned, a particular person did not cause this particular fire to set up the conditions for these floods. Drought , fires, steep terrain, sandy; gravelly, rocky soil, in conjunction with fast hard rains has been known for as long as people have been living in the LA - So. Cal area. What is inexcusable is allowing and promoting the development of these areas for subdivisions and business for monetary gain over the safety of those people and businesses. If these areas were used for farming and ranching, there would not be the same economic devastation occurring. In other words the management of this area lacked a lot and was not taken seriously. Through codes a lot of who can build what and where is enforced but not to the total benefit of the whole community. I will get off my soap box.
Thanks for your perspective, Roy. Perhaps I should have used the word mankind, rather than man. "One small step for [a] man", and all that...
Humankind would be even better.
Thank you Juan :(
Hi Juan, I want to add some interesting info I have found out from a friend who live local. He is a owner/operator truck driver and has been hired to haul massive amounts of rock not the mud or slide area. He informs me that there were three small reservoirs which were completely blown out or emptied and this huge release of water could be a large factor to increasing flow or damages. Of course they water resources department will attribute the cause as the mud flows on hillsides above as causing them to fail. Its interesting that officials are not prepared and have a close eye on these very exposed pipes when they know mudslides are likely during a rain event such as this. They should know a water main breaking on the hillside is very possible especially where it has creek crossings.
Here is an article that states main shut-off valves failed to work once they were damaged or broken....
www.independent.com/news/2018/jan/16/water-district-sued-mudslides/
I question as to why are shutoff safety valves even installed if they don't work or go un-monitored in situations which officials already knew was dangerous to public....
Thanks as always for adding insight and covering these types of subjects as I find your reporting very informative.
Wow! this is a very interesting development...
Thank you Juan ...great job !!!
Btw How's THE Dam progress ??on schedule?
yes...more on that soon...
When I saw the pictures here of the mudslides and the trees & brush piled up against the houses, I couldn't help but think about ....Houston. Yea, I know, there weren't huge mudslides & trees pushed up against the homes, but the flooding was just as destructive to so many homes. But I never see anything about Houston...it's old news now, but I bet it's also getting to be real old for the thousands of folks who are still putting their lives back together after the flooding. Yep...that's our beloved MSM for ya...very short attention & memory spans...at least in these natural disaster events.
Thoughts and prayers for the lost and living in those areas. A viscous circle humans live in. With populations increasing and natural land being developed it is really hard for natural scarification of native plants that require fire as a way of rebirth. Of course we must put the fires out....but with water restrictions, landscaping is frowned upon. With less natural landscaping and almost no personal landscaping temps increase causing even stronger Santa Ana's and drought. That is of course a very basic description of the vicious circle theory. I could see the beginning of this when I lived in the San Fernando valley in the early 80's. So....plant more grass, trees, bushes etc.and so cal will thrive once again. Peace and prayers to all
Great vid!