I think it would be important to mention, as you did in this video, that in 1985 the Dow Jones Industrial Average had a dividend yield of 6%, which was in the emerging markets post-railroad, high-tech world in which we now live. In addition, it was in an era of lower taxation, too.
Excellent video!! I'm intrigued by the idea of a mean reverting stock trading strategy but even before I watched the video I was skeptical on its usefulness. I think it may be possible to do but I'm sure its not as simple as looking a ratio and trading away based on mean reversion. Thank you very much for explaining the application of a fairly complicated concept!
Could you please elaborate more on your sentence "central bankers have contributed to an environment of low economic growth and higher risk premiums."?
I would model it differently. Instead of reversion to the mean I would say equilibrium. Since the markets are always in motion the sum of the forces are not equal to zero. From Newton law, bodies at rest will remain at rest unless acted upon by external forces. These external forces are constantly changing with are; fear, greed, speculation, weather, economic and government regulations among others. One would need to sum all of these vectors (magnitude and direction) to determine the resultant force. It would also be useful to know the all boundary conditions or limits on these variables (forces) at any given point in time. Maybe financial markets have orbits and the circular motion is large enough to appears linear. On earth this orbit creates seasons with each month having a differently monthly average temperature, especially in areas far from the equator and poles . So if financial markets have different seasons why should the average PE remain constant? We have a daily, weekly, monthly, and yearly average temperatures. Each average is measure with a specified time period. Spring is a high growth (PE) period with summer growth rate approaching zero, and fall negative growth (decay) , falling PE. So with each finical season there should be a corresponding average PE which refers to a specific span of time. Limits or boundary conditions in which the value is valid. An old statistician joke I heard in the 80's, if you have your head in the freezer and your feet on fire, on average you are fine.
Human psychology makes trading statistics useless. That’s why even though on paper the market is beatable by timing almost no one does. You have two choices either stay in the market with a buy and hold strategy’s right stay in cash. That’s it. 🤷♂️
"There are so many ways you can beat the market on paper, and there are so few people who actually pull it off."
Brilliant.
@Zain Landyn Shut the fuck up bot
@Ari Brooks You too. Shut the fuck up.
I think it would be important to mention, as you did in this video, that in 1985 the Dow Jones Industrial Average had a dividend yield of 6%, which was in the emerging markets post-railroad, high-tech world in which we now live. In addition, it was in an era of lower taxation, too.
Amazing insight and presentation.
This was amazing presentation!
Excellent video!! I'm intrigued by the idea of a mean reverting stock trading strategy but even before I watched the video I was skeptical on its usefulness. I think it may be possible to do but I'm sure its not as simple as looking a ratio and trading away based on mean reversion.
Thank you very much for explaining the application of a fairly complicated concept!
Could you please elaborate more on your sentence "central bankers have contributed to an environment of low economic growth and higher risk premiums."?
Fantastic educator, really inspiring to listen to!
Thank you SIR
How is it that this video only has 11k views...
Good let them go watch “gurus”.
Thank you for the insight!
So the over inflation produced by the FED will then produce a crash then? This is now in 2021.
Yes
No,it also could be a very long sideway!
great video
reality is a composition of total averages calculated by the universe.
I would model it differently. Instead of reversion to the mean I would say equilibrium. Since the markets are always in motion the sum of the forces are not equal to zero. From Newton law, bodies at rest will remain at rest unless acted upon by external forces. These external forces are constantly changing with are; fear, greed, speculation, weather, economic and government regulations among others. One would need to sum all of these vectors (magnitude and direction) to determine the resultant force. It would also be useful to know the all boundary conditions or limits on these variables (forces) at any given point in time.
Maybe financial markets have orbits and the circular motion is large enough to appears linear. On earth this orbit creates seasons with each month having a differently monthly average temperature, especially in areas far from the equator and poles . So if financial markets have different seasons why should the average PE remain constant? We have a daily, weekly, monthly, and yearly average temperatures. Each average is measure with a specified time period. Spring is a high growth (PE) period with summer growth rate approaching zero, and fall negative growth (decay) , falling PE. So with each finical season there should be a corresponding average PE which refers to a specific span of time. Limits or boundary conditions in which the value is valid.
An old statistician joke I heard in the 80's, if you have your head in the freezer and your feet on fire, on average you are fine.
Human psychology makes trading statistics useless. That’s why even though on paper the market is beatable by timing almost no one does. You have two choices either stay in the market with a buy and hold strategy’s right stay in cash. That’s it. 🤷♂️