At 15:28, First run is 17.83% to win, if you don't count the dead cards dealed to other players. Second run is 11.18% to win, with the first board counted has dead cards. So, to win both it is 17.83%*11.18%= 1.993%.
When accounting for all the dead cards, equity rises to 20.61% on first board, and 13.27% on the 2nd (with the first board's cards now "dead"). Winning both boards was a 2.735% chance factoring in all cards seen, roughly 2-in-73.
So a friend of mine owns a bar, and when people make suggestions about what he should do at his bar, he invariably responds, "That's a great idea! When you own your own bar, you should do that." And i feel like the "if they want to invest 100k of their own dollars with bottom set" is a similar vibe, and I'm here for it.
Mariano, if you are 25% (¼) to win the hand with one board, then you are ¼ x ¼ = 1/16 chance to win IF the runouts are independent. However, when you run it twice and you win the first runout with a Q, then your odds on the second board are significantly worse. So, you were at best 1/20 (5%) or 1/25 (4%) to win both boards. Actually once the second flop brings a K, you need exactly A and J or 9 and J, which is about 1%.
He was about 18.5% to with first runout. Once he hits queen first run out there is only one queen left. He had less than 2% to win both hands. Super lucky
I really enjoyed the whole episode. As a loyal viewer since the beginning, I can only say - thank you. I've been playing since the early 2000s, but only sporadically for the last few years. It's just awesome to see what you can do with talent. Cheers and keep up the good work.
Hello Mariano. I saw this yesterday but I thought it was a Hustler vlog and thought of watching it later. Anyway I just realized now that it was your vlog. Nice vlog and a lucky session. I'm glad you did good on this session and it was a profitable one. See you on your next game. Peace ✌️
You’re the man Mariano ! I watch you live most times. But I think you make the best decision 95 percent of the time , other than doubting yourself and what you are capable of. You carry yourself well my guy. Henry and Dennis test ya sometimes. But you are better
Firstly that Dennis…. 🤬🤬🤬😂😂 great to see u finally get justice with the pocket 3s in the following session! The hand of the vlog…. OMG!! That was insane and I nearly fell out of my chair when I saw that jack land on the river!!! You got Ryan twice which was great to see 😂 ur run good and upswing is awesome to see also, and I also loved the honesty of miscalculation on the last hand! 👊🏽❤️
The Dennis bluff. Lol. Easier to see when I have a camera zoomed in on him, but my lawd him pushing in those chips looked so bluffy haha. I immediately wanted you to call after that. Again, much easier to see when I have 0 invested. Tough spot for sure.
Yes, to find the probability of 2 evens occurring at the same time you multiply their probabilities together. So 0.25 * 0.25 = 0.0625 or 6.25%. Now if you take into account actually winning the 2nd board after removing one of the Q from the deck, the probability is even lower.
@@runningrock124i mean have you watched hows he’s run the past 6 months its been horrific. Historically though yes he has run like a god but he’s also acknowledged that
@@wolf-xf6hfhe has run better than 99.99% of poker players will ever run, it’s not even close. He’s light years ahead in terms of luck compared to the average.
Idk how Ryan plays, but if he’s a tight player then I think folding QQ facing a 5-bet jam from him is the right play. Especially when only 25% of the effective stack is in the middle. You should have lost both boards.
I would love a video and playlist of videos where you block out the other cards, so much better viewing when you get to play the hand out with you. Great stuff, please give it a thought & best of luck to you 👍🏾
Good luck on.that album brother can't wait to hear it bless up 💯 Are you gonna eventually switch it up to hip hop a album, you got some dope intro music on everyone of your vlogs
QQ v KK is like 20% on 1 run out. On the second board, you have already used a Q, so it's gonna go down, somewhere in the 11% range. So scooping both is gonna be 20% times 11%, so roughly 2% to scoop Ryan. (I'm not in front of a computer, just estimating.)
Massive congrats on the EP. Those of us who are musicians know that there's little more rewarding than a successful music project. It's absurdly hard work, but it is truly living your best life. And I love that you are keeping your eye on that ball when you could easily be seduced by the big dollars.
Solid poker play... you've got all that analytics down to a "T" but, I'm thinking you're more of a "FEEEEL" guy...? Anyhow... luv your vlogs and poker game... can't wait to here your music! 🥳💪
Music and poker are the 2 things I love most. Really interested to see what genre of music you are making. I sing in a ska/punk band and it’s the best feeling in the world. I’d love to be 1% of the poker player you are though 😊 (Please name check the band so I can follow)
When two events (A and B) are independent from each other, you can multiply their probabilities to calculate the probability of both of them happening. Here however, since you hit the Q on the first board, you can’t obviously hit it again on the second board. The probability of you winning both boards is roughly (0.18*0.094) *100 = 1.69%
Congratulations to you for sun running the last few weeks between HCL & The Lodge. Probably up close to 400k. Btw... nice of you to play at times soft against your buddies like Dylan & Mike X. You left $$$ on the table a few times not going for value. It was also nice of you to donate $1500 on last Saturday's HCL stream 2 - 5 game. You had a 100% vpip. Highest ever? Wish to see you continue running well for the remainder of 2024. Peace!
When I saw that Jack on the river live that was so sick ! You deserved it. You've been incredibly unlucky in those spots recently ! Can't wait for music to drop on cassette ...... my walkman has batteries and is ready to go !
Thanks for good wishes my fav grinder! Healt comes first. Unfortunatelly gotto far away from U.S. for a while since my mom struggles with her healt situation for almost 1.5 years 😖 hope to back the dream country again and grind. Congratz
I didn’t run the numbers but to win both it’s probably like 2-3% because you use your outs to win the first one so the second one is even more unlikely. Quick way to figure it out is just how likely is it for you to hit quads and that gets u in the right ballpark.
Always looking forward to your new video, but now was on it after 1 minute. And it is the video announcing your music material. Looking forward to that too!!
Maybe you could make something for the opening of Hustler or Lodge videos. If it's any good it could give some exposure that gets played multiple times a week whenever someone watches their show
Ahhh I was hoping Mariana (in this instance) was gonna pull the when we don’t know what to do we call w the 3’s 😭 no fault, discipline but results oriented which everyone in the chat tends to be would’ve been great. WP nice session
Watching that first hand without knowing the outcome had me thinking he was bluffing with K of hearts and he was! Was super chuffed about that. Don't know if I'd have the cahoonies to call in that spot though but that's testament to why you should never play above what you're willing to lose
I’ve watched Ryan quite a bit on hustler…. I think his 5 bet all in range is AK KK QQ AK there. Have to look at an equity calculator but I’m not sure your call is actually great with queens.
Yeah. 12 combos of AA and KK plus another combo of QQ. 16 combos of AK. That range nearly half hands got you crushed and half them is a flip. Need almost 40% equity to call off 70k+ for 178k pot. Definitely need 5 bet bluff shoves to get in green.
@mariano, you indicated your Q/Q versus @ryanfeldman K/K hand was a culmination of a lot of bad beats you have suffered but the impression most people seem to have is that the phrases #rungood and Mariano #KingArgentina are synonymous. Like the session when you had a flopped Queen High Straight flush verses @AndyStacks flopped nut flush for a 650K pot . That same session you multiple pots of 300+K, 500K, etc you were a part of. If you go back a few years to like 2022 you had a Sun RUn of like 3 months to start the year of nothing but 5 figure, 6 figure sessions on the positive side. You are one of those players it seems that is a very very intellectual player that does give action but are very calculated. You seem to usually do well because your RUN Good usual is accompanied by #PLAYGOOD. Hope this upswing back continues for your. Blessings to you and yours!!!
26:00 is scared money imo. You know Dennis is capable of check jamming there so you didn’t want to be put to the test. There’s tons of value to be had there with a bet imo
Most definitely he should know that you would call with almost anything good that first big hand, so when he bets anything other than allin, he knows that you know that he knows you would call with most good hands so I don’t mind getting leveled into folding the set of 3s there when you’re right usually you would have a few combos of flushes to call down with. And I’m sure he would have done the same with nutted hands.
I think that people don't treat straddled pots the same as regular blinds as in they will typically play tighter than you're supposed to... But maybe Ryan doesn't give a damn about the money and would still shove wide enough...
Luckier than AA v KK v KK?
I think it's his 3rd luckiest hand. AA v KK v KK and flopped straight flush vs nut flush
Without these two hands he would have lost money last year
That’s somewhat different because in the hand you’re referring to his money went in good from the very beginning.
Poker needs luck to win big, its not only about skills
Over all lucky situation, but got it in good vs sucking out.
At 15:28, First run is 17.83% to win, if you don't count the dead cards dealed to other players. Second run is 11.18% to win, with the first board counted has dead cards. So, to win both it is 17.83%*11.18%= 1.993%.
Your math isn’t mathing
When accounting for all the dead cards, equity rises to 20.61% on first board, and 13.27% on the 2nd (with the first board's cards now "dead"). Winning both boards was a 2.735% chance factoring in all cards seen, roughly 2-in-73.
@@edwardkain5006seems way less likely. Maybe 0.1 percent chance Mariano wins both hands with queens against kings
@@ZenHolisticFitness meaning he only scoops 1/1000 times?? That seems crazy. 1/50 times seems pretty accurate
@@mason7438 maybe your right. Atleast that’s the odds it would feel like if your the one who had kings
So a friend of mine owns a bar, and when people make suggestions about what he should do at his bar, he invariably responds, "That's a great idea! When you own your own bar, you should do that." And i feel like the "if they want to invest 100k of their own dollars with bottom set" is a similar vibe, and I'm here for it.
Ur buddy is a condescending prick 😂
That’s a bingo!
Exactly. That guy had the KH too so he knew no one could have the nut flush. Good fold by Mariano
@@shakashiri 😂🤡
Everytime I watch Ryan play hes getting crushed by the worst runouts
Iv noticed that 🤣
Mariano, if you are 25% (¼) to win the hand with one board, then you are ¼ x ¼ = 1/16 chance to win IF the runouts are independent. However, when you run it twice and you win the first runout with a Q, then your odds on the second board are significantly worse. So, you were at best 1/20 (5%) or 1/25 (4%) to win both boards. Actually once the second flop brings a K, you need exactly A and J or 9 and J, which is about 1%.
He was about 18.5% to with first runout. Once he hits queen first run out there is only one queen left. He had less than 2% to win both hands. Super lucky
Keep the positivity flowing. Keep up the great work Mariano.
Denis has put the fear of God into y'all. lol
I love the blurred opponent hand I think you should do it more
Can't wait to hear the music. Sounds right up my alley! Congrats on the recent good run
The Set of 3s fold is absolutely fine
Yeah in PLO. This is hold em it’s hard to make a hand.
@@jenghiskhan69na for a bet thats 2.5x pot you are getting dogshit pot odds thats a fine fold. For a pot size bet then its a call
@@jenghiskhan69 it's either a total bluff or your hand is smashed. Fold is 💯 fine
@@jamesburwood6896nah. It was obvious a bluff imo. I knew he was bluffing and I wasn’t even in the hand.
If you play online, but IRL this was a HORRID fold
I really enjoyed the whole episode. As a loyal viewer since the beginning, I can only say - thank you. I've been playing since the early 2000s, but only sporadically for the last few years. It's just awesome to see what you can do with talent. Cheers and keep up the good work.
Love the kind outro! Great work man! Love the cadence of your videos and how you walk us through your logic
Hello Mariano. I saw this yesterday but I thought it was a Hustler vlog and thought of watching it later. Anyway I just realized now that it was your vlog. Nice vlog and a lucky session. I'm glad you did good on this session and it was a profitable one. See you on your next game. Peace ✌️
this is a great day for poker content, all of the goats uploaded
Love it, glad to hear you're in a good place and looking forward to hearing the tunes! 🎉
It’s completely absurd how good Mariano runs.
Can't wait to hear your album. Does your band have a name?
You’re the man Mariano ! I watch you live most times. But I think you make the best decision 95 percent of the time , other than doubting yourself and what you are capable of. You carry yourself well my guy.
Henry and Dennis test ya sometimes.
But you are better
Firstly that Dennis…. 🤬🤬🤬😂😂 great to see u finally get justice with the pocket 3s in the following session! The hand of the vlog…. OMG!! That was insane and I nearly fell out of my chair when I saw that jack land on the river!!! You got Ryan twice which was great to see 😂 ur run good and upswing is awesome to see also, and I also loved the honesty of miscalculation on the last hand! 👊🏽❤️
The Dennis bluff. Lol. Easier to see when I have a camera zoomed in on him, but my lawd him pushing in those chips looked so bluffy haha. I immediately wanted you to call after that. Again, much easier to see when I have 0 invested. Tough spot for sure.
Good luck on the music venture looking forward to hearing it!
Appreciate the effort you took to blur out your opponents' cards, really value adds to your thought process
Yes, to find the probability of 2 evens occurring at the same time you multiply their probabilities together.
So 0.25 * 0.25 = 0.0625 or 6.25%. Now if you take into account actually winning the 2nd board after removing one of the Q from the deck, the probability is even lower.
Love to see it brotha! Keep going strong!
GTO is out the window playing vs Dennis and Texas Mike … you were right with the 33 “it Dennis he’s a maniac”
This one was one of the better sessions. You have 3 maniacs in the game, Ryan, Tx Mike, and Denis
it is amazing how good some ppl run.
it's incredible.
and Mariano doesnt even realize
he's complaining about how bad he runs lol
yet 90% of ppl think Mariano runs like god.
@@runningrock124i mean have you watched hows he’s run the past 6 months its been horrific. Historically though yes he has run like a god but he’s also acknowledged that
@@wolf-xf6hfhe has run better than 99.99% of poker players will ever run, it’s not even close. He’s light years ahead in terms of luck compared to the average.
Solid plays and breakdowns... waiting for the next vid.
Idk how Ryan plays, but if he’s a tight player then I think folding QQ facing a 5-bet jam from him is the right play. Especially when only 25% of the effective stack is in the middle. You should have lost both boards.
I would love a video and playlist of videos where you block out the other cards, so much better viewing when you get to play the hand out with you. Great stuff, please give it a thought & best of luck to you 👍🏾
I’ve never heard of a new band as a startup 😂 Congrats on finishing the production, that’s a lot of work!
Always enjoy watching, good luck with the music venture 👍
So good that mastered Dennis the following day and not only that, you finally broke the hoodoo with Ryan. Looks like your year has changed.
Good luck on.that album brother can't wait to hear it bless up 💯
Are you gonna eventually switch it up to hip hop a album, you got some dope intro music on everyone of your vlogs
Curious to hear about your watch collection- seen a few different pieces the last couple months. Any favorites?
What cards are those that hustler is using now?
I had planned on increasing my stake at slot games at Hugewin casino this weekend but let's keep going
QQ v KK is like 20% on 1 run out. On the second board, you have already used a Q, so it's gonna go down, somewhere in the 11% range. So scooping both is gonna be 20% times 11%, so roughly 2% to scoop Ryan. (I'm not in front of a computer, just estimating.)
Mr Lucky! 🍀
Very happy for you. You’ve earned every dime of it.
How do you play the progressive stand up game?
Amazing content as always 🎉🎉🎉
I watched this stream. You were playing lights out. Glad the skill was finally getting rewarded.
Massive congrats on the EP. Those of us who are musicians know that there's little more rewarding than a successful music project. It's absurdly hard work, but it is truly living your best life. And I love that you are keeping your eye on that ball when you could easily be seduced by the big dollars.
Do you use your own bands tracks on your vlogs?
Solid poker play... you've got all that analytics down to a "T" but, I'm thinking you're more of a "FEEEEL" guy...? Anyhow... luv your vlogs and poker game... can't wait to here your music! 🥳💪
way to go Mariano! ROCK ON!!🙂
Looking forward to hearing the album
- thanks for your work.
Music and poker are the 2 things I love most. Really interested to see what genre of music you are making. I sing in a ska/punk band and it’s the best feeling in the world.
I’d love to be 1% of the poker player you are though 😊
(Please name check the band so I can follow)
Texas Mike has 2 WSOP BRACELETS????!????!
Nice session bud. Maybe next vlog will be your SHIRT session 😀, you know what i mean i want to hear from you behind the SHIRT. Great job man.
When two events (A and B) are independent from each other, you can multiply their probabilities to calculate the probability of both of them happening. Here however, since you hit the Q on the first board, you can’t obviously hit it again on the second board. The probability of you winning both boards is roughly (0.18*0.094) *100 = 1.69%
Congratulations to you for sun running the last few weeks between HCL & The Lodge. Probably up close to 400k.
Btw... nice of you to play at times soft against your buddies like Dylan & Mike X. You left $$$ on the table a few times not going for value.
It was also nice of you to donate $1500 on last Saturday's HCL stream 2 - 5 game. You had a 100% vpip. Highest ever?
Wish to see you continue running well for the remainder of 2024. Peace!
these straddles rules r crazy imo. along with the stand up game, it makes poker look more like gambling than a skill game...
When I saw that Jack on the river live that was so sick ! You deserved it. You've been incredibly unlucky in those spots recently ! Can't wait for music to drop on cassette ...... my walkman has batteries and is ready to go !
Thanks for good wishes my fav grinder! Healt comes first. Unfortunatelly gotto far away from U.S. for a while since my mom struggles with her healt situation for almost 1.5 years 😖 hope to back the dream country again and grind. Congratz
There is no link to the music dude?
I didn’t run the numbers but to win both it’s probably like 2-3% because you use your outs to win the first one so the second one is even more unlikely. Quick way to figure it out is just how likely is it for you to hit quads and that gets u in the right ballpark.
Hey Mariano how would one find your band on Spotify
Nice hand Mariano❤❤❤keep it up ,,,wish u always have a winning streak bro. 🥰🥰🥰
Always looking forward to your new video, but now was on it after 1 minute. And it is the video announcing your music material. Looking forward to that too!!
Could you share me the intro song? Sounds like a great tune while driving, don't know if you have any playlist
What watch are you wearing?? and is one luckier than the other??
Maybe you could make something for the opening of Hustler or Lodge videos. If it's any good it could give some exposure that gets played multiple times a week whenever someone watches their show
Where do we find your Music?
Watched that HCL stream, Feldman took an extreme reaming.
Good fold with the set of threes. Given the amount of money your playing.
Really great video. They usually are, but this one was a cut above.
Where is link to the music :(? I don’t see 😅
LESSS GOOOOOO the run good kid🙏🏾🙏🏾…what can you not do? Thanks for sharing your journey with us
What is the name of the band so I can find your music
Ahhh I was hoping Mariana (in this instance) was gonna pull the when we don’t know what to do we call w the 3’s 😭 no fault, discipline but results oriented which everyone in the chat tends to be would’ve been great. WP nice session
Love seeing your videos at casinos near me!
Where is the link to the music?
You Tube music tambien?
On the first hand (fake) flush over set what would you have done if say for some reason you had a straight when arriving at the river?
Nice win Mariano.
20:39. Why continuing to bet makes more money?
Watching that first hand without knowing the outcome had me thinking he was bluffing with K of hearts and he was! Was super chuffed about that. Don't know if I'd have the cahoonies to call in that spot though but that's testament to why you should never play above what you're willing to lose
I’ve watched Ryan quite a bit on hustler…. I think his 5 bet all in range is AK KK QQ AK there. Have to look at an equity calculator but I’m not sure your call is actually great with queens.
Yeah. 12 combos of AA and KK plus another combo of QQ. 16 combos of AK. That range nearly half hands got you crushed and half them is a flip. Need almost 40% equity to call off 70k+ for 178k pot. Definitely need 5 bet bluff shoves to get in green.
Very cool overbet btw. I would say Garret-style overbet. You are becoming a master, even knowing that was a miscalc 😅
I wanna run like Mariano
Mariano I love your watch collection. Is that a day date at 7:56? I can’t tell!
Denis is the definition of "Play the man, not the cards"
denis and texas mike are beasts
Great Health to You as well
When my next kid is born I will name that little fella "Mariano."
What is the name of your band/project???
@mariano, you indicated your Q/Q versus @ryanfeldman K/K hand was a culmination of a lot of bad beats you have suffered but the impression most people seem to have is that the phrases #rungood and Mariano #KingArgentina are synonymous. Like the session when you had a flopped Queen High Straight flush verses @AndyStacks flopped nut flush for a 650K pot . That same session you multiple pots of 300+K, 500K, etc you were a part of. If you go back a few years to like 2022 you had a Sun RUn of like 3 months to start the year of nothing but 5 figure, 6 figure sessions on the positive side.
You are one of those players it seems that is a very very intellectual player that does give action but are very calculated. You seem to usually do well because your RUN Good usual is accompanied by #PLAYGOOD.
Hope this upswing back continues for your. Blessings to you and yours!!!
Appreciate the well wishes, have you ever heard of Nujabes? I’ve been listening to him since 06
Does the way Francisco stack his chips give anyone else mad anxiety? They could fall at any moment 😂
Big fan of your..Quick question why you don’t play against Ludacris???
Anyone know the name of the music project?
26:00 is scared money imo. You know Dennis is capable of check jamming there so you didn’t want to be put to the test. There’s tons of value to be had there with a bet imo
Most definitely he should know that you would call with almost anything good that first big hand, so when he bets anything other than allin, he knows that you know that he knows you would call with most good hands so I don’t mind getting leveled into folding the set of 3s there when you’re right usually you would have a few combos of flushes to call down with. And I’m sure he would have done the same with nutted hands.
What's the name of the band Mariano? Pura Vida from Costa Rica!
12:40
Interesting
Hey Mariano, hit up any metal shows lately?
I think that people don't treat straddled pots the same as regular blinds as in they will typically play tighter than you're supposed to... But maybe Ryan doesn't give a damn about the money and would still shove wide enough...
What’s the name of the band?
Denis/Aggressive✅-Fish✅
Texas Mike/Aggressive❌-Fish✅