This Valuation Is INSANE! I'm SELLING Now
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- Опубліковано 10 лют 2025
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👨💼Brian Feroldi is an author (amzn.to/3JVr9Q0), investor, UA-camr, and financial educator. He's been investing in the stock market since 2004. Brian likes to buy and hold the highest quality companies he can find.
👨💼Brian Stoffel is a writer, investor, UA-camr, and financial educator. He's a teacher at heart. Brian has been investing for over a decade and has written over 4,000 articles for The Motley Fool. Brian plans his life and his investments around “antifragile” principles.
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He sold a lil bit of AXON, not all of it. Bcs he’s afraid he’s too greedy. YW
You saved my tome watching the vedio ❤
This is inaccurate. He sold about 40%. I wouldn't call that a lil bit.
In summary: Axon is solid company with score of 13 before valuation. The stock price today expects adjusted CAGR of 30% for 10 years, which is pretty hard to sustain, and is considered overvalued. Valuation brings the score of the stock down to 10. And Mr Stoffel cut his position from 12% to 7% of his overall portfolio, a significant reduction of exposure.
2021 taught me the hard way that valuations matter. Sometimes markets go crazy. I also sold 50% Axon as well as 50% of my Palantir and 30% Tesla. I assume there will be a reasonable drawback the next 24 months to get in again. Yes, tax disadvantages have to be considered …
Thanks for this interesting video. I considered selling my shares or some of the shares. In the end I didn’t sell anything because Axon has always felt too rich in valuation.
Great to see these Antifragile analysis come back again.
I was expecting PLTR to be that stock with its 350+ P/E at the moment
interesting i like that valuation framework
I remember your decisions around intuitive surgical a how did that inform/shape this decision?
Thoughts on TMDX after they lowered guidance again only a month after reporting?
I believe Network Effect as a Moat is going to get significantly better. If the Departments are able to provide analytics that show they have decreased rates of issues, that will save $$ on insurance and settlements. In my opinion, they are just scratching the surface on that aspect.
nah, i'll wait until it hits a certain percentage threshold in my portfolio. one person selling is no reason for me to sell. happy i didn't sell TEAM or DDOG earlier in the year, either
Hi Brian, thanks for the video, as usually right on spot. However, when you talk about selling based on valuations in your video, you don't mention capital gains taxes we have to pay every time we exercise the sale. And those taxes can overweight benefits of selling stocks just because their valuations are too high with a hope to repurchase them when valuations are more attractive. If the thesis is not busted and you don't critically need money for something else, sometimes it is just better to keep the stock of high quality business even if valuation is high.
Not sure how much you capital gain taxes you pay in jurisdiction where you live, but where I live in Canada - taxes are just a high way robbery. So selling just on valuations basis simply doesn't work, unless you would expect that stock price falls something like 30% plus to justify repurchasing it later on better valuations. As far as I know, institutional investors like hedge funds have different tax rules when it comes to frequent training, but not for ordinary folks like us, sadly 😂
I'm located in Germany and here a 26,4% tax on capital gains is applied in the moment you push the sell button. I also sold 50% of my Axon. This implies I assume there will be at least a 30% drawdown from here the next 24 months... 2021 showed me that this could happen easily. Also Axon dropped 40% from August 21 to June 22. Others even more ...
He was buying since it was in the $20+. Maybe he holds them in a similar account to the TFSA or RRSP.
Very good question. These shares are all held in tax-advantaged accounts so there's no taxes to consider until I'm in my 60s
In US, you pay 0% on long term capital gains unless you are over an income threshold. You can also have individual stocks in retirement accounts.
Furthermore, you have to take profits sometime. Even with a tax hit, it could be worth it.
Side note: I could see AXON easily falling 30% on the next market drop. All but small caps are objectively overvalued currently.
Bitcoin crushed this guy YTD in 2024.
Thank you for the very good content!
Glad you enjoy it!
I think ripping up flowers to plant weeds is just not a good idea. It would be interesting if you explain how to cut your losers but cutting your winners is just not a good idea.
I feel you, Brian. It's tough to sell a high-conviction stock, but valuation matters. I've been in the same boat with other stocks.
I bought NVDA in Aug and Nov 2023 for a little over 400 a share. I sold 1/2 stake when it hit 950. It was in 9 months so short term cap gains, but there is nothing like tripling your money in less than a year.....that way i left the rest to ride forever.
Run your winners then set up a moving stop loss ?
great returns.
sell all!
👎from those who sold ISRG when you were saying the same thing about its stretched valuation …its up about 100+ % since then
Brian said AXON was expensive when it was 300, stock has doubled since.
As a fair comparison, he should comnpare his pefromance vs the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ). Not a basked of 500 to thousands of stocks. Why he doesn't do that? Anyone logical invstors knows why.
He does do that. Rewatch the video!
He outperforms the indexes but with much higher vol., and his Sharpe is actually worse than the indexes. I run a similar portfolio, and that's how it is, you have to be able to stomach the volatility. He seems to cut positions to manage risk, I personally let them ride bc I've always regretted after the fact of selling a good company too early.
He sold about 40% of his AXON shares. Watch the video to understand why. It's one of the best videos recently.
I bought this stock months ago based on Brians recomendation and don't regret it. It's one of my best performers and I am holding on until it reaches $700
I bought axon in 2017 , as an idiot I sold my shares one month later..... Had 28 shares...
With mass deportations, a tough on crime government, and greatly increased support for the police in America, there is no reason to expect that this key "police stock" will continue to crush it as Trump crushes crime!
At what point would you feel comfortable buying back in?
If at any point you would buy back in, wouldn’t it make more sense to let your portfolio compound tax free, then interrupt the compounding machine?
Especially if you have more cash to invest, every month quarter or year. You can just make it a smaller portfolio weight, that way.
What do you think?
And BTW I am your biggest fan and really appreciate your insight! Keep killing it!
Is Number Of policemen increasing ? That is a key parameter I guess !
Hi! First!
Well done!
STOFEL YOU SCAM ARTIST