The economy and national security after AGI | Carl Shulman (Part 1)

Part 2: • Government and society...
The human brain does what it does with a shockingly low energy supply: just 20 watts - a fraction of a cent worth of electricity per hour. What would happen if AI technology merely matched what evolution has already managed, and could accomplish the work of top human professionals given a 20-watt power supply?
Many people sort of consider that hypothetical, but maybe nobody has followed through and considered all the implications as much as Carl Shulman. Behind the scenes, his work has greatly influenced how leaders in artificial general intelligence (AGI) picture the world they're creating.
Learn more and find the full transcript on the 80,000 Hours website: 80000hours.org/podcast/episod...
Carl simply follows the logic to its natural conclusion. This is a world where 1 cent of electricity can be turned into medical advice, company management, or scientific research that would today cost $100s, resulting in a scramble to manufacture chips and apply them to the most lucrative forms of intellectual labour.
It's a world where, given their incredible hourly salaries, the supply of outstanding AI researchers quickly goes from 10,000 to 10 million or more, enormously accelerating progress in the field.
It's a world where companies operated entirely by AIs working together are much faster and more cost-effective than those that lean on humans for decision making, and the latter are progressively driven out of business.
It's a world where the technical challenges around control of robots are rapidly overcome, leading to robots into strong, fast, precise, and tireless workers able to accomplish any physical work the economy requires, and a rush to build billions of them and cash in.
As the economy grows, each person could effectively afford the practical equivalent of a team of hundreds of machine 'people' to help them with every aspect of their lives.
In today's episode, Carl explains the above, and host Rob Wiblin pushes back on whether it's realistic or just a cool story.
• Cold open [00:00:00]
• Rob’s intro [00:01:00]
• Transitioning to a world where AI systems do almost all the work [00:05:21]
• Economics after an AI explosion [00:14:25]
• Objection: Shouldn’t we be seeing economic growth rates increasing today? [00:59:12]
• Objection: Speed of doubling time [01:07:33]
• Objection: Declining returns to increases in intelligence? [01:11:59]
• Objection: Physical transformation of the environment [01:17:39]
• Objection: Should we expect an increased demand for safety and security? [01:29:14]
• Objection: “This sounds completely whack” [01:36:10]
• Income and wealth distribution [01:48:02]
• Economists and the intelligence explosion [02:13:31]
• Baumol effect arguments [02:19:12]
• Denying that robots can exist [02:27:18]
• Classic economic growth models [02:36:12]
• Robot nannies [02:48:27]
• Slow integration of decision-making and authority power [02:57:39]
• Economists’ mistaken heuristics [03:01:07]
• Moral status of AIs [03:11:45]
• Rob’s outro [04:11:47]
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