You can look at Ded Gramarye IV, Adverse Possession IX, even Maahes HC4. All world drop weapons that can't have multiple perks with no way of focusing them.
@@envoybodden826 The other thing is I can go buy 5 focused somethings from the seasonal vendor and 4 will have the exact same roll which seems statistically impossible. Go do it now from Failsafe if you have some engrams left over.
The problem with this is confirmation bias, and it's a really tough thing to look at objectively. You only care about the roll you want until you get it, then everything after that is immaterial. I do think that there's something to look into here, but any anecdotal evidence needs to be severely scrutinized.
im pretty sure one of their biggest scandals is throttling xp back in 2017. it was so big i have friends till this day who dont wanna play the game or trust bungie because of that, if perk weighting turns out to be true its gonna be awful for bungie
Honestly as someone who played D2 at launch, I never understood why THAT was the big issue people had. The writing was terrible, the loot system was neutered, the gameplay was slow and felt bad, the new weapon system sucked, there was zero endgame, but taking a little extra time to level up a pointless number for an Eververse engram was the big issue? I find that a little silly.
Not really, that was just a blatant lie whereas this is clearly an issue NOBODY would have noticed had it not affected a widely available gun with a perk combo everyone wanted
I don’t think we can call it a majority, when I’m pretty sure that most people who’ve ever played the game have never even posted about it online. Any person who’s playing a game and then takes the time to join an online community is already in the minority.
whats messed up is that statement doesn't become false if perk combo weighting is true. the real question is: did bungie know that? did they ever think to look for perk combo weighting issues? or did they know and simply never mention it because we never specifically asked?
It's like when Joe Blackburn said "Witch Queen wasn't supposed to have Strand", he technically was telling the truth because of how so much for the 5th element was different than how we actually got what became Strand, see how there used to be Poison keywords etc, BUT he also was fibbing a bit when it was pretty obvious the WQ campaign's landscape was filled with situations where utilizing Strand would've made infinitely more sense. Some of those platforming sections with the "psychic power" seemed like we should've been using Strand powers. Also can't forget a lot of referential stuff in Witch Queen that leads on there to be another element in play, Warlock's Throneworld robes have the Needlestorm icon, certain hive called weavers etc.
@@sauceinmyface9302 i LOVED that one. I was at work that day and couldn't contribute to any of the puzzles but I was able to predict how large the final puzzle would be based on the partial results which was really fun.
@@cwj2733if we are talking about weighted combos, it depends on how intentional. If they intentionally have been doing this it’s easily worse. If unintentional I’d say it’s better than xp throttling because they knew about it, and that’s what made xp throttling so terrible. Bad if it got overlooked, terrible or worse if they did this by design
I always believed there was weighting in the perk combos. Look at all the duplicates or non desired perk combinations that drop. Can’t be a coincidence.
@@gavo7911to get a higher player count to potentially get more money from players wasting time in the game. Imagine hanging out at the mall all day, eventually you will start to think about spending money after passing your favorite store enough times. They even told on themselves with dual destiny. They said they cant make that mission easier because they need player counts because it helps them make money for the game.
Just in case you guys chalk it up to a weird coincidence, they looked at a sample size of over 100k truthteller rolls that people got. It formed a very clear pattern when you table the perks against each other.
Yeah I read that Reddit post after the initial one. The numbers pretty god damn damning. If Bungie is completely innocent like they say they are then their algorithm is beyond bugged out. And they have no incentive to fix it since it only increases playtime.
@@TheInfamousS Arguably, if they fix it, certain guns with good rolls that also happen to be common would be made a little bit more uncommon. An example would be Zaouli's with explosive payload + incandescent. If you patched it, this perk combo would actually get rarer.
@@TheInfamousS I think it's likely a bug since it's likely been a thing for a while, and if it was intentionally weighted there's no way that wouldn't have leaked by now. Would be way too big of a scandal not to. Like, users have access to the API data, there's no way they could intentionally weight rolls and expect nobody to notice.
I actually had a similar theory for years that each destiny account has a "seed" used in randomization that makes that amount more likely to receive certain perks or loot only because thier seed tends to roll the same number more frequently. This was mostly based on past times where I could rapidly collect an engram for example from say Salidan and they would be the same helm or something like 3 times in a row before giving me something else, or I would get only gloves when pinnacles dropped multiple times in a row
Just a little observation I made... That little diagram reminded me of how stat focusing works, where focusing on Mobility will guarantee you get a Recovery/Discipline/Strength stat.
This definitely explains why I'd spend an entire weekend or an entire week inside Trials or Iron Banner chasing a specific perk combo on a gun and wouldn't see it after 50+ weapon drops.
I remember farming for "spare ration" in season of Deep until TFS! I shit you not, I never got a slideshot/opening shot roll!!! Ever!! Tons and tons of vorpal and kinetic tremors! It was weird!
If perk "distance" has been determining combination drop rates for years, Bungie is the one that decided the perk "order". If tens of thousands of drops have been tracked in DAYS by a few thousand players, Bungie could easily have seen these trends in which perk "orders" were the rarest spots to put the "best" combinations. So the new "meta" defining weapons are given the correct perk "order" to make the "meta" rolls as rare as possible, to force players to play extended hours to try to get the roll they want.
Exactly! I highly doubt the perk order is random. Someone somewhere decides what column and what position to put the perks into. Seems like the players have finally caught onto the “random but not really” system they use behind the scenes. Now I’m really curious to see how many god roll perk combinations are right across from one another or staggered out. THAT will tell us how much Bungie actually knew.
If bungie was doing it on purpose for good rolls I'm certain the player base would have figured it out sooner. They are just so incompetent that they can't make random rolls properly random and they are also too incompetent to notice from looking at the data.
I remember spending weeks on the first encounter of the prophecy dungeon to farm for a Subsistence + Rampage IKELOS HC and I remember seeing some perk combinations waaaaay more often than others. This makes so much sense... how did we miss this for all of this time?
Really appreciate how u actually touched on the reality of the situation, years of wasted time and effort as well as bungies dismissive initial reaction, ive been dogpiled a lot for sharing similar sentiments so glad to see someone with a larger profile calling it out for what it is
It’s been the case since Duality Dungeon for me man, wtf!!!!! I did that bloody dungeon farm 93 times for a demolitionist repulsor brace unforgiven. And guess what? Theyre 3 away like you said and I never got it. I’m so fucking pissed.
Lowkey kind of hope this is the moment a lot of people just uninstall the game and walk away. 93 runs is insane to not get the drop you want. Think of all the other ways you could have spent that time. Bungie does not respect the time of the player.
When Pail said they never lied about the Exp Throttle, they just never told us. Didnt it flat out lie on-screen saying +200 exp in the bar, even though you only got 50 or somethings like that?
I came to this conclusion during menagerie. I rolled EXCLUSIVELY trust and got dozens of repeat rolls but NEVER the dragonfly-rampage- dropmag roll I wanted. I rolled hundreds. Got THREE dragonfly rampage rolls all together.
Dragonfly rampage on trust aren't on the same level, but they are only 1 perk apart, so NOT the least common combo, but drop rate is only going to be a little less common. So your grinding would have been about normal. (This is trust s4 edition, not the current release)
Anyone who played when forsaken used to drop 100s of edge transits per week already knows this has always been kinda a thing. That said I've absolutely seen the issue more since final shape than ever before. As i tend to collect 5-10 of something before deleting for the keeper, since final shape I've noticed many many duplicate rolls down to the barrels on the order of 4 out of 10 on average instead of just occasionally 2 out of 20ish
there was also in TTK when players realized that overnight, SBMM was now a factor in crucible matchmaking and were told "no, nothing has changed." a few weeks later, noseworthy i believe hopped on twitter to confirm that yes, they had turned on SBMM and were experimenting with it without telling anyone. that was not a very fun moment in time.
This situation has felt much more prevalent ever since the Brave weapons released a few months ago. Due to the frequency at which we were able to get drops (~23 per run + the brave tokens at the chest) along with being able to attune a particular weapon, many players can confidently say they've received well over a thousand Brave drops since the beginning of that event. "RNG is RNG," but with so many drops, it's still strange to receive an EXACT same roll of a weapon you have already sharded multiple times before even seeing a 2/5 of a weapon with just the desirable perks.
I posted a video when Into The Light came out that had me theorizing that you could curb RNG by specifically not doing all the quests and only doing what you want to limit what physically could drop. I still kept doing it until final week and was pretty much able to only see weapons I did the quest for a lot more frequently. The quest by default gives you Hung Jury and Succession so of course those were dropping even though I didn't touch their quests til the end.
oh if only there was a system in place where you could guarantee a certain perk combination after a certain number of drops, like if you could go somewhere and interact with something and be given the option of choosing your desired perks and the ability to mix and match them with no limitations so you can play around with interesting combinations and all that, oh if only.
We NEED crafting back on newer weapons , i couldnt get arvendil or whatever that stasis fusion rifle is called with reconstruction + chill chip and i focused around 200-300 of them since final shape. Crafting removes all this bs.
Crafting should've been designed from the beginning as bad luck protection. The thing that made it problematic was that it was designed to just be so much better than random rolls that it made random rolls irrelevant, while also being entirely parallel to them rather than tied inherently to them in a manner that felt reasonable. Unfortunately, bungie didn't do that, and despite moving in the right direction haven't really fixed that and are just removing crafting from a lot of things... bringing us to the original issue that it was supposed to solve.
@@tenacity25 it should have been done like The Division crafting. Crafted weapons are just a random roll, then you can "lock in" and reroll one of the perk columns. We should also be able to just change the barrel and magazine on any dropped weapon. Its not an issue for pc since recoil is nonexistant there but on console most weapons if they don't have arrowhead brake they are auto-dismantle
@@alext9550the irony being we had a lock in system at a couple of points in this franchise. Before D1’s release we had something like that and D2 vanilla had the masterwork re-rolls that were ditched (reasoning on that one was you can have re-rolled masterworks or random roll perks, not both).
I highly doubt it’s intentional given that an employee that was discarded (laid off) confirmed it wasn’t a thing. It’s more likely to be a bad random number generator, since computers factually cannot be random.
This has to be related to the game getting "stuck" giving the same reward over and over with identical perks or stats when getting rewards in quick succession like focusing or activities that drop multiple at once like Menagrie when it dropped 5 or Bonfire Bash.
yeah wow, unless there was some error in data collection, there is no way this is not happening. bungie has to publish the results of what they find instead of "oh yeah there is no weighting"
@@broderickfoster2107 I didn’t mean it to be mean. Of all the things that Tassi said in this video, those words stands out the most for me. Props to Skarrow
Yea I believe it as well. Why do you think they got rid of crafting seasonal weapons? To increase playtime to farm random rolls, then make those random rolls weighted.
This reminds me of what just came out over with Respawn and EA. The community was told for years that they had a 1% chance of unlocking heirloom shards and in recent years added a system in which after 500 packs you would be guaranteed a shard drop. Laws were passed over seas that stated that they had to show their actual drop rates. Not only did it come out that you had less than a .045% (1~2200) chance at getting a shard drop they had the audacity to act like they were releasing the stats as a good will to the community.
Hi, game developer and programmer here. This can absolutely be happening, and have nothing to do with Bungie deliberately designing it; both can be true. Computers are awful at random number generation - waaay worse than people think. Patterns can occur in any randomized situation due to the way code operations take a certain amount of time, how some memory requests go into queues and network speed correction and buffering. Absolutely plausible but still unintended.
Literally a thought i had is why look at this weapon and not any others, there's data and everything to thwart this theory, it's like the theory of streamer luck
@@user-kb6ey3dq7c let me explain with an example: I have a tree in my game with four different animations for “wind” movement and 3 durations for each, so 12 possible combinations. I want to pick them randomly so that the trees don’t all wave in the “wind” identically so it looks more realistic. However because I use threading and a queue to lower the performance hit of the tree animation, the rng still ends up with patterns because the queue is holding up the longer animation cycles in favor of the fast ones!
If a Bungie employee discovered this awhile back and let leadership know about it....would you be surprised if they let it remain in the game? With Bungie's track record I certainly wouldn't.
It completely makes sense. It explains why I got certain god rolls that it seemed like other people got but never got the rare meta rolls for other guns...dispite grinding X5+ times harder.
If you’ve gotten no GL drops at all that is simply bad luck. If you’ve gotten GLs to drop but not a specific perk combo, then that applies to the issue in the video. The actual weapon dropping is a whole other issue than perk rolling
I actually think you missed one key point here Paul. One of the reasons this was discovered so fast is because this is actually quite an easy weapon to farm the encounter for. Its not a long encounter, it could be cheesed up until very recently, and its popular. The fact its not a hard farm (outside of the chance of the item itself dropping) makes it so much easier to test a theory like this.
This is why it took me over 300 Bonfire Bashes to get a single slickdraw/opening roll of Compass Rose, they're 3 and 4 perks away. Matadoor 64 as well with Threat Opening, a roll I've never gotten in well over 1000 drops.
Sure, but who decides where a perk is on those columns? That's the next step: figuring out if the best or potentially most desired perk combo is always the one difficult to obtain.
The time I felt like they were weighted in some way was farming edge transit when I came back to d2 last season. Farmed it in a group of 3 for about 2 months, running the 10 wave expert, then reset after attunement came out, and not 1 of us managed to get envious + bait and those runs only take like about 12mins or so. I'm not saying a 5/5 or 4/5 just those 2 perks together. At the end, we just wanted one of us to get it, but nobody did.
The crazy part is once they have to admit it then people are going to start asking well what about exotic drop rate chances if perks are being overlooked for their chance to drop people are going to say the same thing about Exotics in Dungeons and raids
I stopped playing this game three years ago and I can tell you this is true think back seven years ago when this game first came out and all of the perk combinations you tried to 4:18 get now think of how many times you got a duplicate role on that same gun…no way it’s not waited
Regarding the perk pool weight - I've rolled hundreds of aurvandils and have yet to get another reconstruct/chill clip (accidentally sharded my first one years ago). I frequently see the same perk combos given to me. I use this as an example because I've received more of these than any other weapon in the game
I heard some people mention that if you have 2 RNG functions set off at the same time (like one for each perk) they could be individually “random” but interact such that their combinations often give similar interaction results.
I spent ~400 hours in onslaught when it first came out, the whole time having edge transit attuned, and not a single, solitary drop that I obtained, shiny or no, was envious + bns which of course was the obvious god roll. No one can tell me they're not weighting rolls/combos and I'm glad people are finally waking up to it.
and if you look at the API and see envious + BNS and theyre like 4 away from eachother and it explains how I had them attuned for like the entire last week of onslaught farming and not getting it
@itzdracula exactly. Not only this but having also target farmed things like matador, riptide, exotic class items, etc. I can confidently say that hundreds of my thousands of hours in this game have been dedicated to trash rolls while still coming up with nothing on occasion once I finally give up.
I don’t know what to tell you, but I have 2 god roll shiny Edge Transits. Cascade, Envious, BnS combined 2 shinies. I played onslaught, idk maybe ~50 times, on NORMAL and I did expert like twice lol. It’s RNG, nothing more to it.
I’d like them to investigate exotic weapon drops because I’ve done warlords ruin every week on two of my characters since launch, completed the quest, done it flawless (not solo thoug) and the exotic side arm has never dropped. I’ve even helped my buddies get the catalyst unlocked after they had it drops on runs with me and still no luck. I’m sick of running the dungeon every week. It’s fun but I’m tired of being shafted
I was farming the new Strand Linear Fusion from GM’s. Looking for the bait and switch envious or auto loading. Got maybe 25+ and didn’t get a single roll I wanted. I was really confused, but this explains it. I believe this
Me, checking Lingering Dread to finally discover that THIS is why I farmed Gahlran hundreds of times and NEVER got ALH with Chill Clip... Only to then discover they're only 1 slot away from each other, so actually, my RNG really IS just that bad :'[
This would be especially mean if it worked with something like ritual weapons, or things like the shiny weapons Also, the guy that made that chill inhibitor data table is currently doing data tables for all the dawn weapons, and allowing anyone to send him data (he has an app), so he has a MUCH larger frame of reference than with this first table.
I farmed an absurd amount of Unforgiven back in Duality (encounter 2) for the Demo + Repulsor roll, and that perk combo is 3 slots away. I had numerous people farm with me, and I had one friend walk away with it. Extremely wild shit
I think its indisputable that there is "perk weighting". The only questions are whether it was intentional, whether they knew, and how long they will take to fix it I have an idea of how the actual implementiation is made but we'll see (my theory is it picks perks by selecting one via rng, then the second perk is chosen via elimination, so it'll check do they get x, X+1, x+2, etc. Except it checks each one individually rather than splitting the remaining perks into 'buckets'. So if the chance is 50%. X would be 50%, x+1 would be 25%, x+2 25%, etc)
Most people are just thinking about that some combos are exceedingly rare. The flip side of this that was only briefly alluded to, is certain combos are positively weighted and this also explains lots of duplicate drops which is much more easily observed oticeable. Both can contribute to extra play time. It feels intentional imo, allowed them to spam you with undesirable drops and choose to a varying degree how rare they wanted to make desirable drops.
I have yet to see a Randy's Throwing Knife with Kinetic Tremors. I gave up after three seasons of reaching prestige 4 with Shaxx, then dumping ALL engrams into that gun (and grinding afterwards too of course).
I think this is like a flat tire sort of thing, like corruption more so. You don’t notice until it’s too late-and you need to know what to look for before hand-but this “too late” is like a flat tire
This is pretty interesting, and a touch odd, but I guess it's kind of wild to me that it's so upsetting to folks who were already more than willing to aggressively do something boring and repetitive for something specific, just because the odds happened to be worse than they assumed. Chasing loot like that as "the soul of the game" has never vibed with me, I've never been willing to grind that stuff out and have always been willing to settle for the "good enough" option - it's part of why I loved crafting - can use the good enough until you can make the ideal.
I suspect there is something causing it from as far back as Forsaken because I believe that's when we started getting specific curated gold border drops
This kinda explains why I can't get Randy's with the right combo, so stopped, or some of the other seasons where I ended up sat on 99 seasonal engrams because focusing seemed pointless. It has always seemed certain perks seemed unlikely on certain guns. But then other weapons (such as Blast Furnace, or HalfDan-D) with Outlaw-Rampage was effortless.
I started to believe this conspiracy theory when I farmed the first encounter of Vesper's Host for 6 goddamn hours this morning, but only got 6 Chill Inhibitors and somehow 2 of them were Demolitionist/Chain Reaction.
Bro.... yall wanna relate so damn bad that's just bad luck imagine you got 2 god rolls instead of some trash, you'd be sitting here saying nothing about it
So for this to be on purpose, Bungie would have had to make a fundamental and very secret part of their engagement secret sauce (the perk order that determines odds) right there in the API for all to see. Wow. I wonder if they would have had a select council of "need to know" people who had complete control over the perk order? Note: Mountaintop has auto-loading holster and recombination right next to each other.
I've been saying for years I think masterworks are bugged. I swear if you get a particular stat related perk like quickdraw then 9/10 times you will get a handling masterwork, or say outlaw and a reload. It happens so often to me it's insane. I always tool that with a grain of salt, but now lol.
Regardless of if this is legit or not, I welcome back the era of conspiracy theories about how mechanics in games work. I miss the days of seeing UA-cam videos claiming they have a trick to “get you the raygun out of the mystery box every try”
I’m sorry, but there is _no_ chance Bungie would be unaware of perk associations like this. Especially if they’ve been inclined to look at perk RNG over the years, too many engineers would have to have completely miss in-code relationships with regards to perk rolls on a weapon.
The funny part is the perk rating shenanigans wouldn't be an issue if people wouldn't have bitched and moaned to the point that bungie practically took crafting out. Yes garden and all the old seasonal weapons/reprised raid weapons are craftable but that's it. Everything else is a random world drop, onslaught, old raid weapons, and ritual playlist weapons, ALL not craftable. And these are the same idiots that will comment the same braindead shit like "if you don't like it don't play", "destiny players when they have to play the game🤬", and arbitrary ass statements about playercounts dipping in gamemodes with crafting because of crafting as if people playing in a gamemodes doesn't live and die by ALL the loot drops and how fun the playlist is. Look at Coil: the season of the wish weapons outside of some niche picks were very mid yet people were farming coil up until the very last day of the season because it was challenging, fun, and had good drops even without the weapons. Its always the wrong people complaining the loudest and fuckin everything up for everyone else.
It’s odd to me that people are just finding this out now. Perks have always been weighted. It’s easy to see it some perks drop way more then others. It sucks.
The irony in using "truth teller" to determine if combo weighting is real is crazy
Why? Seems like a rare world drop; the more random, the more accurate the sample to full population
@@nena_._ whooooss
@@Xlaws I am not seeing the irony here, please explain the whoosh kind sir (after you spell it right.)
You can look at Ded Gramarye IV, Adverse Possession IX, even Maahes HC4. All world drop weapons that can't have multiple perks with no way of focusing them.
The name is "truth teller" and by using it it "told the truth"
"Truth is game was rigged from the start"
Good old Benny
"What in the goddamn"
False it started back when xur sold gjallaryhorn and all hell broke loose
So many people just released they wasted 100s of hours of their life for nothing, Kinda funny to be honest
hilarious that truthteller was used to make the strongest case for this theory
The amount of "same rolls" I get versus the "rare roll" makes me think this is legit.
Same, I am looking at my vault right now on DIM and well, yikes.
@@envoybodden826 The other thing is I can go buy 5 focused somethings from the seasonal vendor and 4 will have the exact same roll which seems statistically impossible. Go do it now from Failsafe if you have some engrams left over.
Same
I can recall getting 30+ spare rations with offhand strike swashbuckler to drop
And I know several people who kept getting the exact thing
RNG is not so R
The problem with this is confirmation bias, and it's a really tough thing to look at objectively. You only care about the roll you want until you get it, then everything after that is immaterial. I do think that there's something to look into here, but any anecdotal evidence needs to be severely scrutinized.
imagine how insufferable we'll all be if this turns out to be true. we'll never hear the end of it.
itll be warranted if it all turns out true lol
@@mycroft174 absolutely
@@mycroft174”turns out”😢
Nah. If that happens, it's just another reason for the player to quit. We've screamed for years, now we're in the era of apathy.
im pretty sure one of their biggest scandals is throttling xp back in 2017. it was so big i have friends till this day who dont wanna play the game or trust bungie because of that, if perk weighting turns out to be true its gonna be awful for bungie
Honestly as someone who played D2 at launch, I never understood why THAT was the big issue people had. The writing was terrible, the loot system was neutered, the gameplay was slow and felt bad, the new weapon system sucked, there was zero endgame, but taking a little extra time to level up a pointless number for an Eververse engram was the big issue? I find that a little silly.
The amount of collective time lost trying to get certain rolls must be insane.
“Babe wake up, Throttlegate 2.0 just dropped”
Anyone who starts a comment with “babe, wake up” … has never had a steady significant other to say “babe, wake up” to.
I'll tell you one thing, farming Into the Light shinies made me believe RNG wasn't as RNG as I thought.
This feels like the good ole "no exp gating" from the old days
Not really, that was just a blatant lie whereas this is clearly an issue NOBODY would have noticed had it not affected a widely available gun with a perk combo everyone wanted
I absolutely believe it as well, especially when a mass majority of people constantly have the same issue
I don’t think we can call it a majority, when I’m pretty sure that most people who’ve ever played the game have never even posted about it online. Any person who’s playing a game and then takes the time to join an online community is already in the minority.
“There is no perk weighing.”
*Pete Parsons nose grows a little*
whats messed up is that statement doesn't become false if perk combo weighting is true. the real question is: did bungie know that? did they ever think to look for perk combo weighting issues? or did they know and simply never mention it because we never specifically asked?
It's like when Joe Blackburn said "Witch Queen wasn't supposed to have Strand", he technically was telling the truth because of how so much for the 5th element was different than how we actually got what became Strand, see how there used to be Poison keywords etc, BUT he also was fibbing a bit when it was pretty obvious the WQ campaign's landscape was filled with situations where utilizing Strand would've made infinitely more sense. Some of those platforming sections with the "psychic power" seemed like we should've been using Strand powers.
Also can't forget a lot of referential stuff in Witch Queen that leads on there to be another element in play, Warlock's Throneworld robes have the Needlestorm icon, certain hive called weavers etc.
"There is no perk weighting!"
Indebted Kindness with Loose Change and Deconstruct starts walking out of the room
@@thealldayspecial yeah strand was supposed to see beyond the normal world and see like threads and stuff, fits perfectly with deepsight
Of all the Destiny dramas, I think the one that takes me back to my 201 Stats course in college is one of the better ones.
It's like a corridors of time ARG but a freaking conspiracy theory into one of the deepest rooted bugs of the game.
@@sauceinmyface9302 i LOVED that one. I was at work that day and couldn't contribute to any of the puzzles but I was able to predict how large the final puzzle would be based on the partial results which was really fun.
Tinfoil hat on tight with some of the people believing in this.
@@sauceinmyface9302is it slightly better or slightly worse than the intentional xp bug in curse?
@@cwj2733if we are talking about weighted combos, it depends on how intentional. If they intentionally have been doing this it’s easily worse. If unintentional I’d say it’s better than xp throttling because they knew about it, and that’s what made xp throttling so terrible. Bad if it got overlooked, terrible or worse if they did this by design
"Working as intended."
You doubt Bungie would alter something behind the scenes to inflate play time? XP throttling, time gated events, etc have left the chat.
Add drop rates for raid and dungeon exotics to the list. Oh didn't see the etc until now.
The game is boring now.
This bug affected bad rolls just as much as it affected good ones, it makes no sense for Bungie to purposefully do this
I always believed there was weighting in the perk combos. Look at all the duplicates or non desired perk combinations that drop. Can’t be a coincidence.
They knew.
this isnt your usual "extra layer of RNG" weighting tho,the implication is that some caveman level code was making RNG decisions for YEARS
@@The_Makr_ No they didn’t, they would have literally no reason to do this intentionally
@@gavo7911to get a higher player count to potentially get more money from players wasting time in the game. Imagine hanging out at the mall all day, eventually you will start to think about spending money after passing your favorite store enough times. They even told on themselves with dual destiny. They said they cant make that mission easier because they need player counts because it helps them make money for the game.
Agree. This makes total sense if you compare it to armor stats and ghost mod focusing.
Are you talking about the stat buckets? That's pretty well known
@@cartho1103 yep
The community puzzle we've been all waiting for.
absolutely not excited for the result of this one 😵💫
destiny always has done their secrets well!
Just in case you guys chalk it up to a weird coincidence, they looked at a sample size of over 100k truthteller rolls that people got. It formed a very clear pattern when you table the perks against each other.
Yeah I read that Reddit post after the initial one. The numbers pretty god damn damning. If Bungie is completely innocent like they say they are then their algorithm is beyond bugged out. And they have no incentive to fix it since it only increases playtime.
There's just no reason to trust them. They've pulled stuff like this in the past and lied about it... they have no credibility.
@@TheInfamousS Arguably, if they fix it, certain guns with good rolls that also happen to be common would be made a little bit more uncommon.
An example would be Zaouli's with explosive payload + incandescent. If you patched it, this perk combo would actually get rarer.
@@TheInfamousS I think it's likely a bug since it's likely been a thing for a while, and if it was intentionally weighted there's no way that wouldn't have leaked by now. Would be way too big of a scandal not to. Like, users have access to the API data, there's no way they could intentionally weight rolls and expect nobody to notice.
@@sauceinmyface9302 Zaouli is craftable so that's not a good point
Its scary to think that the amount of time burned on this is likely measured in years.
It's probably a lot closer to decades, depending on how long it has been going for
I couldn't believe my eyes last night when I saw this twitter thread. It was absurd. The remainder of the week is gonna be really spicy.
I actually had a similar theory for years that each destiny account has a "seed" used in randomization that makes that amount more likely to receive certain perks or loot only because thier seed tends to roll the same number more frequently. This was mostly based on past times where I could rapidly collect an engram for example from say Salidan and they would be the same helm or something like 3 times in a row before giving me something else, or I would get only gloves when pinnacles dropped multiple times in a row
And that is why crafting is a good thing
If it's intentional, that's bad, if it's a bug that's been around for 4+ years, that's worse, pure incompetence honestly
Just a little observation I made... That little diagram reminded me of how stat focusing works, where focusing on Mobility will guarantee you get a Recovery/Discipline/Strength stat.
This definitely explains why I'd spend an entire weekend or an entire week inside Trials or Iron Banner chasing a specific perk combo on a gun and wouldn't see it after 50+ weapon drops.
I remember farming for "spare ration" in season of Deep until TFS! I shit you not, I never got a slideshot/opening shot roll!!! Ever!! Tons and tons of vorpal and kinetic tremors!
It was weird!
Unfortunately for you, slideshot/opening shot looks to be one of the most common rolls possible, they are only 1 distance away on the API.
@@sauceinmyface9302 Damn bro really was just plain unlucky lmao
If perk "distance" has been determining combination drop rates for years, Bungie is the one that decided the perk "order". If tens of thousands of drops have been tracked in DAYS by a few thousand players, Bungie could easily have seen these trends in which perk "orders" were the rarest spots to put the "best" combinations. So the new "meta" defining weapons are given the correct perk "order" to make the "meta" rolls as rare as possible, to force players to play extended hours to try to get the roll they want.
Exactly! I highly doubt the perk order is random. Someone somewhere decides what column and what position to put the perks into. Seems like the players have finally caught onto the “random but not really” system they use behind the scenes. Now I’m really curious to see how many god roll perk combinations are right across from one another or staggered out. THAT will tell us how much Bungie actually knew.
If bungie was doing it on purpose for good rolls I'm certain the player base would have figured it out sooner. They are just so incompetent that they can't make random rolls properly random and they are also too incompetent to notice from looking at the data.
I remember spending weeks on the first encounter of the prophecy dungeon to farm for a Subsistence + Rampage IKELOS HC and I remember seeing some perk combinations waaaaay more often than others. This makes so much sense... how did we miss this for all of this time?
Really appreciate how u actually touched on the reality of the situation, years of wasted time and effort as well as bungies dismissive initial reaction, ive been dogpiled a lot for sharing similar sentiments so glad to see someone with a larger profile calling it out for what it is
Who would've thought we'd see the videogame version of a doctor not listening to a patient's symptoms
Weightgate!
It’s been the case since Duality Dungeon for me man, wtf!!!!! I did that bloody dungeon farm 93 times for a demolitionist repulsor brace unforgiven. And guess what? Theyre 3 away like you said and I never got it. I’m so fucking pissed.
Feel ya bro, I did the same, but I only did in the 40's. I don't have it either; I just gave up.
Lowkey kind of hope this is the moment a lot of people just uninstall the game and walk away. 93 runs is insane to not get the drop you want. Think of all the other ways you could have spent that time. Bungie does not respect the time of the player.
When Pail said they never lied about the Exp Throttle, they just never told us. Didnt it flat out lie on-screen saying +200 exp in the bar, even though you only got 50 or somethings like that?
I swear I've noticed it before... Game needs to drop more XP so we can level up faster.
I came to this conclusion during menagerie. I rolled EXCLUSIVELY trust and got dozens of repeat rolls but NEVER the dragonfly-rampage- dropmag roll I wanted. I rolled hundreds. Got THREE dragonfly rampage rolls all together.
Dragonfly rampage on trust aren't on the same level, but they are only 1 perk apart, so NOT the least common combo, but drop rate is only going to be a little less common.
So your grinding would have been about normal.
(This is trust s4 edition, not the current release)
Anyone who played when forsaken used to drop 100s of edge transits per week already knows this has always been kinda a thing.
That said I've absolutely seen the issue more since final shape than ever before. As i tend to collect 5-10 of something before deleting for the keeper, since final shape I've noticed many many duplicate rolls down to the barrels on the order of 4 out of 10 on average instead of just occasionally 2 out of 20ish
there was also in TTK when players realized that overnight, SBMM was now a factor in crucible matchmaking and were told "no, nothing has changed." a few weeks later, noseworthy i believe hopped on twitter to confirm that yes, they had turned on SBMM and were experimenting with it without telling anyone. that was not a very fun moment in time.
This situation has felt much more prevalent ever since the Brave weapons released a few months ago. Due to the frequency at which we were able to get drops (~23 per run + the brave tokens at the chest) along with being able to attune a particular weapon, many players can confidently say they've received well over a thousand Brave drops since the beginning of that event. "RNG is RNG," but with so many drops, it's still strange to receive an EXACT same roll of a weapon you have already sharded multiple times before even seeing a 2/5 of a weapon with just the desirable perks.
I posted a video when Into The Light came out that had me theorizing that you could curb RNG by specifically not doing all the quests and only doing what you want to limit what physically could drop. I still kept doing it until final week and was pretty much able to only see weapons I did the quest for a lot more frequently. The quest by default gives you Hung Jury and Succession so of course those were dropping even though I didn't touch their quests til the end.
@@thealldayspecial Heh I also noticed this very early on and decided to exploit it to get the guns i really wanted first.
They might just keep doing it and jumble the perk order in the API
They would do something like that. It’s just impossible to trust anything they say at this point
Wonder if this is why exotic class items is such a terrible grind, I’ve gotten so many dupes of ass rolls and no sight of what I really want
Don't forget the "perk attunement" that does absolutely nothing
I got to this situation one time, I just quit. Its better for my health, I only go for crafting now, because its better for my health
oh if only there was a system in place where you could guarantee a certain perk combination after a certain number of drops, like if you could go somewhere and interact with something and be given the option of choosing your desired perks and the ability to mix and match them with no limitations so you can play around with interesting combinations and all that, oh if only.
I ran onslaught last night and got three pulse rifles all with the exact same 2-perk combo.
My experiences have me fully on board
“BuT cRaFTiNg Is RuInING tHe GaMe”
Ironically crafting probably made this way harder to notice because most god rolls could just be crafted
I reset my Iron Banner rank 3 times a couple seasons back trying to get the bow with Pugilist + Dragonfly. Took me that many engrams. I believe it
And y'all wanted shinies.
We NEED crafting back on newer weapons , i couldnt get arvendil or whatever that stasis fusion rifle is called with reconstruction + chill chip and i focused around 200-300 of them since final shape. Crafting removes all this bs.
Crafting should've been designed from the beginning as bad luck protection. The thing that made it problematic was that it was designed to just be so much better than random rolls that it made random rolls irrelevant, while also being entirely parallel to them rather than tied inherently to them in a manner that felt reasonable. Unfortunately, bungie didn't do that, and despite moving in the right direction haven't really fixed that and are just removing crafting from a lot of things... bringing us to the original issue that it was supposed to solve.
@@tenacity25 it should have been done like The Division crafting. Crafted weapons are just a random roll, then you can "lock in" and reroll one of the perk columns. We should also be able to just change the barrel and magazine on any dropped weapon. Its not an issue for pc since recoil is nonexistant there but on console most weapons if they don't have arrowhead brake they are auto-dismantle
@@alext9550the irony being we had a lock in system at a couple of points in this franchise. Before D1’s release we had something like that and D2 vanilla had the masterwork re-rolls that were ditched (reasoning on that one was you can have re-rolled masterworks or random roll perks, not both).
@@alext9550 I'd say it matters on PC too. Ever get a SMG with zero range?
Paul "I hope to god this isnt a dumb conspiracy please dont let that happen" tassi back at it again
Pretend this is a cool conspiracy theory. That may not actually be a conspiracy theory.
probably in the game for a long time, but no one cared about rng because there was none since you could craft most "meta" weapons for last few years
I highly doubt it’s intentional given that an employee that was discarded (laid off) confirmed it wasn’t a thing. It’s more likely to be a bad random number generator, since computers factually cannot be random.
Bungie and unimaginably incompetent go together like steak and eggs
This has to be related to the game getting "stuck" giving the same reward over and over with identical perks or stats when getting rewards in quick succession like focusing or activities that drop multiple at once like Menagrie when it dropped 5 or Bonfire Bash.
I concur with this.
yeah wow, unless there was some error in data collection, there is no way this is not happening. bungie has to publish the results of what they find instead of "oh yeah there is no weighting"
If you have ever taken a c++ course or Javascript course, you would know that coding an element in an array with a seed value is very easy.
Wow! This is nuts! I don't even play Destiny now but that's crazy.
“Skarrow is a actual scientist”
I mean he is? He works as a chemist outside of the game so like, yeah scientist…
@@broderickfoster2107 I didn’t mean it to be mean. Of all the things that Tassi said in this video, those words stands out the most for me. Props to Skarrow
Yea I believe it as well. Why do you think they got rid of crafting seasonal weapons? To increase playtime to farm random rolls, then make those random rolls weighted.
Tbh, the fact that they aren't craftable makes me not care to farm them. Once the season is over I can never change to try a different perk? F that.
Please tell me this is a recent bug. I can't fathom the impact it could've had if it's always been a thing o.o
This reminds me of what just came out over with Respawn and EA. The community was told for years that they had a 1% chance of unlocking heirloom shards and in recent years added a system in which after 500 packs you would be guaranteed a shard drop. Laws were passed over seas that stated that they had to show their actual drop rates. Not only did it come out that you had less than a .045% (1~2200) chance at getting a shard drop they had the audacity to act like they were releasing the stats as a good will to the community.
Hi, game developer and programmer here. This can absolutely be happening, and have nothing to do with Bungie deliberately designing it; both can be true. Computers are awful at random number generation - waaay worse than people think. Patterns can occur in any randomized situation due to the way code operations take a certain amount of time, how some memory requests go into queues and network speed correction and buffering. Absolutely plausible but still unintended.
Literally a thought i had is why look at this weapon and not any others, there's data and everything to thwart this theory, it's like the theory of streamer luck
@@user-kb6ey3dq7c let me explain with an example: I have a tree in my game with four different animations for “wind” movement and 3 durations for each, so 12 possible combinations. I want to pick them randomly so that the trees don’t all wave in the “wind” identically so it looks more realistic. However because I use threading and a queue to lower the performance hit of the tree animation, the rng still ends up with patterns because the queue is holding up the longer animation cycles in favor of the fast ones!
So, I go out of my way to make it random, and then it comes back as not random no matter how hard I try :)
If a Bungie employee discovered this awhile back and let leadership know about it....would you be surprised if they let it remain in the game? With Bungie's track record I certainly wouldn't.
It completely makes sense. It explains why I got certain god rolls that it seemed like other people got but never got the rare meta rolls for other guns...dispite grinding X5+ times harder.
This is why i liked the crafting system. Eventually, I'll get the roll i want to get/craft.
but it killed the grind!!!!!!111 you need to replay the same content you already replayed dozens of times another hundred!;!!;
Did 25 first boss farm, 0 GL drop.
If you’ve gotten no GL drops at all that is simply bad luck. If you’ve gotten GLs to drop but not a specific perk combo, then that applies to the issue in the video.
The actual weapon dropping is a whole other issue than perk rolling
Sucks to suck!
I actually think you missed one key point here Paul. One of the reasons this was discovered so fast is because this is actually quite an easy weapon to farm the encounter for. Its not a long encounter, it could be cheesed up until very recently, and its popular. The fact its not a hard farm (outside of the chance of the item itself dropping) makes it so much easier to test a theory like this.
The loots always been weighed. Tbh I'm surprised it took people so long to figure it out
This is why it took me over 300 Bonfire Bashes to get a single slickdraw/opening roll of Compass Rose, they're 3 and 4 perks away. Matadoor 64 as well with Threat Opening, a roll I've never gotten in well over 1000 drops.
It's crazy they seem to have never tested drop rates with large sample sizes.
I cant believe they dont normally check roll distribution just as a quality check
Sure, but who decides where a perk is on those columns? That's the next step: figuring out if the best or potentially most desired perk combo is always the one difficult to obtain.
It's also been a thing forever when spamming drops the game gets "stuck" giving the same roll down to the barrel and mag over and over.
The time I felt like they were weighted in some way was farming edge transit when I came back to d2 last season.
Farmed it in a group of 3 for about 2 months, running the 10 wave expert, then reset after attunement came out, and not 1 of us managed to get envious + bait and those runs only take like about 12mins or so.
I'm not saying a 5/5 or 4/5 just those 2 perks together. At the end, we just wanted one of us to get it, but nobody did.
The crazy part is once they have to admit it then people are going to start asking well what about exotic drop rate chances if perks are being overlooked for their chance to drop people are going to say the same thing about Exotics in Dungeons and raids
I stopped playing this game three years ago and I can tell you this is true think back seven years ago when this game first came out and all of the perk combinations you tried to 4:18 get now think of how many times you got a duplicate role on that same gun…no way it’s not waited
Regarding the perk pool weight - I've rolled hundreds of aurvandils and have yet to get another reconstruct/chill clip (accidentally sharded my first one years ago). I frequently see the same perk combos given to me. I use this as an example because I've received more of these than any other weapon in the game
I heard some people mention that if you have 2 RNG functions set off at the same time (like one for each perk) they could be individually “random” but interact such that their combinations often give similar interaction results.
This is why I have only pursued weapon borders/ craftable weps since crafting dropped. Random rolls is a wasted effort pursuit.
I spent ~400 hours in onslaught when it first came out, the whole time having edge transit attuned, and not a single, solitary drop that I obtained, shiny or no, was envious + bns which of course was the obvious god roll.
No one can tell me they're not weighting rolls/combos and I'm glad people are finally waking up to it.
and if you look at the API and see envious + BNS and theyre like 4 away from eachother and it explains how I had them attuned for like the entire last week of onslaught farming and not getting it
@itzdracula exactly. Not only this but having also target farmed things like matador, riptide, exotic class items, etc. I can confidently say that hundreds of my thousands of hours in this game have been dedicated to trash rolls while still coming up with nothing on occasion once I finally give up.
I don’t know what to tell you, but I have 2 god roll shiny Edge Transits. Cascade, Envious, BnS combined
2 shinies. I played onslaught, idk maybe ~50 times, on NORMAL and I did expert like twice lol. It’s RNG, nothing more to it.
I’d like them to investigate exotic weapon drops because I’ve done warlords ruin every week on two of my characters since launch, completed the quest, done it flawless (not solo thoug) and the exotic side arm has never dropped. I’ve even helped my buddies get the catalyst unlocked after they had it drops on runs with me and still no luck. I’m sick of running the dungeon every week. It’s fun but I’m tired of being shafted
I was farming the new Strand Linear Fusion from GM’s. Looking for the bait and switch envious or auto loading. Got maybe 25+ and didn’t get a single roll I wanted. I was really confused, but this explains it. I believe this
Me, checking Lingering Dread to finally discover that THIS is why I farmed Gahlran hundreds of times and NEVER got ALH with Chill Clip...
Only to then discover they're only 1 slot away from each other, so actually, my RNG really IS just that bad :'[
This would be especially mean if it worked with something like ritual weapons, or things like the shiny weapons
Also, the guy that made that chill inhibitor data table is currently doing data tables for all the dawn weapons, and allowing anyone to send him data (he has an app), so he has a MUCH larger frame of reference than with this first table.
I farmed an absurd amount of Unforgiven back in Duality (encounter 2) for the Demo + Repulsor roll, and that perk combo is 3 slots away. I had numerous people farm with me, and I had one friend walk away with it. Extremely wild shit
I think its indisputable that there is "perk weighting". The only questions are whether it was intentional, whether they knew, and how long they will take to fix it
I have an idea of how the actual implementiation is made but we'll see (my theory is it picks perks by selecting one via rng, then the second perk is chosen via elimination, so it'll check do they get x, X+1, x+2, etc. Except it checks each one individually rather than splitting the remaining perks into 'buckets'. So if the chance is 50%. X would be 50%, x+1 would be 25%, x+2 25%, etc)
Id almost rather them come out and say "the perks are weighted to increase play time" than "we missed this bug for 4-5+ years, sorry."
Most people are just thinking about that some combos are exceedingly rare. The flip side of this that was only briefly alluded to, is certain combos are positively weighted and this also explains lots of duplicate drops which is much more easily observed
oticeable. Both can contribute to extra play time.
It feels intentional imo, allowed them to spam you with undesirable drops and choose to a varying degree how rare they wanted to make desirable drops.
The messed up thing is if god roll perk combos were dropping more often than intended, Bungie would've gotten to the bottom of it in less than a week.
I have yet to see a Randy's Throwing Knife with Kinetic Tremors. I gave up after three seasons of reaching prestige 4 with Shaxx, then dumping ALL engrams into that gun (and grinding afterwards too of course).
I think this is like a flat tire sort of thing, like corruption more so. You don’t notice until it’s too late-and you need to know what to look for before hand-but this “too late” is like a flat tire
This is pretty interesting, and a touch odd, but I guess it's kind of wild to me that it's so upsetting to folks who were already more than willing to aggressively do something boring and repetitive for something specific, just because the odds happened to be worse than they assumed. Chasing loot like that as "the soul of the game" has never vibed with me, I've never been willing to grind that stuff out and have always been willing to settle for the "good enough" option - it's part of why I loved crafting - can use the good enough until you can make the ideal.
I suspect there is something causing it from as far back as Forsaken because I believe that's when we started getting specific curated gold border drops
This kinda explains why I can't get Randy's with the right combo, so stopped, or some of the other seasons where I ended up sat on 99 seasonal engrams because focusing seemed pointless. It has always seemed certain perks seemed unlikely on certain guns. But then other weapons (such as Blast Furnace, or HalfDan-D) with Outlaw-Rampage was effortless.
It’s awesome that we have evidence of this but we all knew it from personal experience. Also, there’s a 0% chance that this is NOT intentional.
I started to believe this conspiracy theory when I farmed the first encounter of Vesper's Host for 6 goddamn hours this morning, but only got 6 Chill Inhibitors and somehow 2 of them were Demolitionist/Chain Reaction.
Bro.... yall wanna relate so damn bad that's just bad luck imagine you got 2 god rolls instead of some trash, you'd be sitting here saying nothing about it
So for this to be on purpose, Bungie would have had to make a fundamental and very secret part of their engagement secret sauce (the perk order that determines odds) right there in the API for all to see. Wow. I wonder if they would have had a select council of "need to know" people who had complete control over the perk order? Note: Mountaintop has auto-loading holster and recombination right next to each other.
I've been saying for years I think masterworks are bugged. I swear if you get a particular stat related perk like quickdraw then 9/10 times you will get a handling masterwork, or say outlaw and a reload. It happens so often to me it's insane. I always tool that with a grain of salt, but now lol.
It's probably more noticeable now because we can't just craft weapons anymore
Bungie has acknowledged there could be a bug with perk combos and they are doing their own research to match the communitys findings
Regardless of if this is legit or not, I welcome back the era of conspiracy theories about how mechanics in games work.
I miss the days of seeing UA-cam videos claiming they have a trick to “get you the raygun out of the mystery box every try”
I’m sorry, but there is _no_ chance Bungie would be unaware of perk associations like this. Especially if they’ve been inclined to look at perk RNG over the years, too many engineers would have to have completely miss in-code relationships with regards to perk rolls on a weapon.
Color me surprised Bungie spent the last seven years wasting our time😂
The funny part is the perk rating shenanigans wouldn't be an issue if people wouldn't have bitched and moaned to the point that bungie practically took crafting out. Yes garden and all the old seasonal weapons/reprised raid weapons are craftable but that's it. Everything else is a random world drop, onslaught, old raid weapons, and ritual playlist weapons, ALL not craftable. And these are the same idiots that will comment the same braindead shit like "if you don't like it don't play", "destiny players when they have to play the game🤬", and arbitrary ass statements about playercounts dipping in gamemodes with crafting because of crafting as if people playing in a gamemodes doesn't live and die by ALL the loot drops and how fun the playlist is. Look at Coil: the season of the wish weapons outside of some niche picks were very mid yet people were farming coil up until the very last day of the season because it was challenging, fun, and had good drops even without the weapons. Its always the wrong people complaining the loudest and fuckin everything up for everyone else.
It’s odd to me that people are just finding this out now. Perks have always been weighted. It’s easy to see it some perks drop way more then others. It sucks.