TURKEY | Erdogan's Western Return?
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- Опубліковано 19 чер 2024
- As NATO leaders gathered in Vilnius for their latest summit, all eyes were on Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the President of Turkey. Having blocked Sweden's application to join the organisation, he was under pressure to reverse his decision. However, in a last-minute move, he said he would lift the Turkish veto in return for the start of European Union membership talks. While this would never happen, and Erdogan eventually promised to press the Turkish parliament to ratify Swedish NATO membership, it raised some critical questions, especially as the Turkish leader took other steps to mend fences with his Western partners. So, what exactly is going on? And could we even see the start of EU accession talks?
For almost a century since it was founded in 1923, The Republic of Turkey (which now officially uses the name Türkiye) has centred its identity on being part of Europe and the wider West. As well as being one of the first members of the Council of Europe, it joined NATO in 1952 and, in 1963, signed an association agreement with the European Economic Community. But while this eventually saw it open membership talks with the European Union in 2005, over the past decade, relations between Turkey and its closest partners have become strained over a range of issues. As well as Erdogan's growing authoritarianism, there has been anger and dismay at Turkey's close ties to Russia. This has come to the fore over Ukraine. As well as refusing to impose sanctions on Moscow, Ankara also blocked Finland and Sweden from joining NATO. However, this has now all changed. Having opened the way for Finland to join, at the NATO summit in Lithuania, the Turkish leader also dropped opposition to Swedish membership. But what exactly lies behind this change of heart?
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VIDEO CHAPTERS
00:00 Start
00:52 Turkey’s Failing Ties to the West
01:49 The Emergence of Turkey
02:31 Turkey Becomes Part of the West
03:46 Turkey Starts EU Accession Negotiations
04:51 President Erdogan Becomes Authoritarian
06:12 Turkey’s Tensions with Western Partners
07:31 Turkey and the Vilnius NATO Summit, July 2023
09:15 Why Is Turkey Rebuilding Ties to the West?
11:21 Could Turkey Restart EU Accession Talks?
SOURCES AND FURTHER READING
NATO News | UA-cam
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European Union | Turkey
www.eeas.europa.eu/turkey/eur...
Turkey | Ministry of Foreign Affairs
www.mfa.gov.tr/default.en.mfa
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#Turkey #EU #NATO #Erdogan
Well, this has been the big story of the past week. At long last, Erdogan agreed to pass Sweden's NATO membership to the Turkish Parliament for ratification. (Although it might not happen until October.) But it almost collapsed when the Turkish President suddenly tried to link it to restarting Turkey's EU accession talks. But, while this was never going to happen, is this really the start of a Turkish shift back to its Western partners, as some have suggested? Let me know your thoughts in the comments below.
Turkey NEVER will join EU ,and you as me you do know this well...
@@dand7763Because it will open up the floodgates with all the people wanting to immigrate to western europe.
I would like to translate your videos in Romanian and then send the subtitle file to you so that you cand add it to your videos. How can I send you the file?
Ich denke Erdogan hat den Druck auf die Türkei reduziert. Er steht nicht mehr als Bösewicht innerhalb der NATO dar. Vor allem seine
Aufforderung die Ukraine in die NATO aufzunehmen, ist ein cleverer Schachzug. Damit sind die Amerikaner und andere westliche Länder die Bösen, die die Ukraine diesbezüglich nicht unterstützen. Für die Aufgabe seiner Position gegen Schweden hat er im Gegenzug hat er einige Dinge versprochen bekommen. Er hat dennoch nichts zugesagt, außer dem türkische Parlament den Beschluß vorzulegen. Das wird frühestens in etwa 10 Wochen passieren. Er wird genau das Verhalten der Schweden und der USA beobachten und danach handeln. Die USA verweisen bei den Kapfflugzeugen auf den Kongress das macht Erdogan jetzt auch in dem er für die Mitgliedschaft von Schweden in der NATO auf das türkische Parlament verweist. Dass das türkische Parlament dem zustimmt ist nach meiner Ansicht keinesfalls sicher. Ich würde im Augenblick nicht darauf wetten, daß das türkische Parlament dem ohne weiteres zustimmt.
Erdogan hat dort im Parlament schwierige Partner in seinem Parteienbündnis (MHP). Die Türkei traut den Amerikanern nicht und wird auch den Prozeß für den Kauf der F16 Kampfflugzeuge genau verfolgen. Für mich ist der Beitritt von Schweden zur NATO keinesfalls eine beschlossene Sache, zumindest noch nicht.
DieTürkei wird niemals Mitglied der EU, das weiß Erdogan sehr genau aber mit seinem Vorschlag setzt er die EU unter Druck und will die Zollunion ausweiten und Visafreiheit für türkische Bürger. Bevor das alles passiert, wird Schweden der NATO nicht beitreten können. Die Türkei hat auf jeden Fall Zeit gewonnen und kann den Prozeß weiterhin verzögern. Wenn er ohne diese Zusagen von der EU und der USA diesen Beschluß durch das türkische Parlament bringen will, wird er scheitern.
How would the EU feel if the proposed Turkic block is ever actually brought about?
Turkey are clearly looking for trade partners and relationships. They also have oil n gas development plans , global munitions trade and control of critical shipping routes.
Time to stop stalling and bring them in to the fold before other options become more appealing economically.
I dont think Türkiye is actually aiming a fully membership of EU. Custom union update and visa problem is the main goal.
Thanks. I agree. Joining requires too many complex and uncomfortable changes. Erdogan would prefer to keep the talks going, but aim for other things, as you say.
@@JamesKerLindsay i agree
Visa-free access to the EU, even if for just 30 days at a time, in parity with the Balkan countries would be seen as a huge achievement, even by Erdogan haters in Turkey. But I can't see anyone managing it for Turkey in the near future. The Balkans countries are tiny compared to Turkey's population.
I can´t see Visa free travel to be offered for Turkey.
@@Siranoxz unlikely for all but Turkey does have a "special passport" which has much better access including visa free to EU. I could see something similar which would be more expanded and open to more people in society. Those more likely to be "trusted" e.g. with a degree or a high level job. Difficult to manage but since it's kind of already been done something similar might happen again. On EU side they could grant to Turkish citizens with other residency.
Or at the least simplified processes for those people with trusted citizenship/residency - e.g. UK, US. Mexico already does this for UK residency permits and it would still be a vote winner for Erdogan since they get to vote in Turkish elections
This channel is easily number one for me in international politics. The topics never feel clickbaity or sensationalized, the facts and knowledge are so clearly presented with evidence and experience to back them up. I really appreciate this channel, I don't know anywhere else that has given me such good overviews on what is happening overseas. Thanks for the great work!
I'm 100% convinced James knows more about geopolitics than many of today's political leaders.
@@bilic8094 I mean, he IS a professor.
@@falsevacuum4667 well many people say they're profesers that's not what I go by you could tell he knows his stuff I first heard about James in the 90's during the yugoslav wars and I haven't heard a bad word about him sure he leans sides on issues but we all do.
@@bilic8094 Some politicians literally boast about how little they know of geopolitics. Sadly, many voters deliberately support populist politicians who are intentionally ignorant.
@@falsevacuum4667 Not all professors are the same. Many are simply green haired activists.
Well, I wouldn't say 'Western Return', maybe more like 'Erdogan sees better opportunities for his political ambitions if he aligns with the west' kind of thing.
exactly . Just some people like big headlines
Biden: I should tell you though, F-16 sale has to go through Congress.
Erdogan: Ahh, ok. Then #Sweden's NATO bid has to go through parliament.
Biden: -_-
Erdogan: -_-
Sweden: Wait a minute... Does that mean we are in or not?
Erdogan: Ask him.
Biden: ...
Yes, this is looking more and more like a standoff. Apparently, the vote might not go before the Turkish parliament until October.
just this summarized it completely
Meanwhile Orban is just happy Erdogan is taking all the heat off of him
@@holyfordus orban's country is member of Turkic union.Orban and Erdogan act together
@@veritasvirtuslibertas3787 nope, Hungary is an observer not a member.
Erdogan showed himself to be an opportunistic actor and the West knows this. Any relationship between the West and Turkey will be purely transactional and done at arms length going forward.
Erdogan fully understands the nature of Turkeys relationship with the WEST which is transactions in essence. The west on the other hand is not comfortable with an assertive Turkey
@Legiion513.
This is 100 percent true. The idea of Turkey being a staunch ally of the west is not really possible, that ship sailed a while ago.
This relationship reminds me of domestic violence. You can only beat your partner an X amount of times before she decides look for other avenues.
That is essentially what Turkey is in it's relationship with the west. The batter partnered who isn't going to forget so easily.
@@williamdavis9562 While I agree with your take on Turkey, I feel like this is a very Western interpretation of things. From Turkey's perspective, there's likely a lot to dislike about the West's actions recently. There's obviously the US support for Kurds causing issues with Turkish internal security. There's also the wars in Iraq, Afghanistan, and Syria, which destabilized their backyard. Basically, from each side's perspective, the other looks like the abuser. And I'm saying this as an American.
@@wlee9888 Same here, I'm an American who spent considerable amounts of time in that country.
The way things are framed are sometimes so detached from reality it makes my head spin.
Not just Turkey though, that is simply the nature of our globalist media. You use them as a source for most issues around the globe you'll be fed some rather strange narratives, highlighting some facts but leaving out some very big ones.
Watching the media coverage on the Ukraine war reminds me of this.
So a lot of these analysis videos on youtube are done in good faith, the issue arises due to the narratives they're fed by the vast majority of sources controlled by the globalist cabal. You rarely walk away from it thinking you learned something new, it's essentially half truths.
As many of said, we live in a post truth era. Narratives matter more than reality.
Many people I talk to about Turkey here in the west simply don't understand how deep Turkey's anger really goes. I'll hear things like "oh we if we XYZ we'll bring them back in the fold." And I'm like "nope, they'll never really join the fold ever again."
@@wlee9888 oh please do you know anything about Turkish history? One of the worst human rights records on earth, for the past 100 years, and that excludes everything they did before people started keeping record of these things. The idea a country like Turkey would talk about terrorists and complain about them is beyond me. They can’t even get themselves to admit the Armenian genocide, they can’t even admit to themselves that they have no free media, they can’t even admit to themselves that they have a dictator, they can’t even admit to themselves that their president &#@ them over and left thousands of them dying under an earthquake because he’s too much of a crook, and he endorses theft. And they still managed to vote him right back in. Turkey is the elephant in the room that everyone is politely dancing around.
Notice on the map how all the conflict zones are right around Turkiye. Ukraine in the North, Balkans in the West, Iraq and Armenia/Azerbaijan in the East, Syria in the South.
@@brckbsrnThe issues with Greece and Kurds are 100% of Turkey's own making.
When you have so many conflict zones around you it's not easy that's why I say being the president of Russia must be the hardest job in the world.
@@brckbsrn The maritime borders between Greece and Turkey are well established, yet Turkey disputes them for possible gain
@@mv_5878 maritime zone between greeks and the turks is a joke and we will dispute that until Greece and EU gives in. things may not sort out in our life time so don't hold your breath, after all, we just started our military industrial sector.
@@osmanisildak2448 Nah, the West will eventually overpower the underdeveloped Turks, unless Erdogan bankrupts you first.
As always, a nuanced and interesting perspective. Thanks for posting!
I think Putin was expecting way more support from Turkey. Of course, Turkey has not become the strongest supporter of “the West/Nato/UE/Ukraine” but I think it’s fair to say he has lost this bet as well…
Thanks. I think you are right. This isn't paying off so well for Putin. But this simply could be because of the dire state of the Turkish economy rather than principle. In that regard, Orban is looking like a better bet.
@JamesKerLindsay
Hullo Mr.James . !
Sir ,
I understant that I interfere a lot ,in those sides , repeating myself ,
but,
Sir , you have to realize that as a Cypriot , seen my country suffering
is just too much ..for me , !
turkey sent the tb2 s before russian invasion (germany sent 5000 helmets btw 😂) which helped ukraine to hold the line until the western help arrives. for 2 weeks, there were just bayraktars and blood of brave ukrainen soldiers. all i m saying is turkey was, is and will be the one of top supporters of ukraine. turkey relies so much on russian money, and never go against russia until the west help them solve the economic issues. do not expect turkey to turn on russia while west treating turkey like sh.t. ( do not forget 10 mil refugees turkey hold, to keep europe happy)
Russia is not the west. They don’t play- I expect you or I order you card when it is not about their security. I am not sure you understand Putin well. He never travelled to Africa blackmailing leaders on money to pay for aid or gas to conform to their way of thinking. He did not travel to teach leaders about what a woman is or what who they should do business with. Unlike the west, blackmailing on food and aid to conform to their way of thinking. Putin had no expectations. Russian way of thinking is - what I think no one in the west understand- at the end we only have ourselves, it’s about counting on ourselves in life. That’s all.
I don’t think Turkey will ever join the EU. The cultural differences are too significant. Besides that, when a large country like Turkey join the EU it will reduce power of countries like Germany and France. Plus the EU will directly border a volatile region like the Middle East. Plus there will be a new immigration crisis with many people wanting to move to Western Europe.
Europeans are less tolerant now of Muslims than they were back in the 2000s (and frankly, vice versa). The idea that this would ever happen is crazy, I agree with you.
@@dunnowy123r maybe because Turkey Is an expansionist power which occupies EU territory?
Well get Albania as It Is sooner or later but this kind of Turkey? Hell no
@@thereita1052What is "EU territory?" LOL I don't think the occupation of norther Cyprus is the reason Europeans don't want Turkey in the club
@@dunnowy123 exept it was the reason talks to join the EU stopped lol? Cyprus has the Power to keep Turkey away from the EU until the sun dies.
Heck even the Turkish "mission" in Syria Is enought to stop the acession not to count the unrecognized crimes against humanity during ww1
half of turkey is european and other half is middle eastern/central asian
This was a great explanation of the situation! Thank you for your unbiased summary.
Thank you so much. I really appreciate it.
PROF JAMES,
Please tell me which promised kept EU: I tell you NONE.
how you can expect Turkish people to be favor of EU membership.
Thanks as always Dr. Ker Lindsay for providing a measured basis for discussion
There are so many angles to the geopolitics of Turkey in the last decade, it’s quite fascinating. I like that you point out the financial situation as well.
I definitely agree this is one of the key diplomatic issues both short and long term, just because of how many other issues it affects, and seems to be constantly evolving
Thanks again for the video professor!
Thank LocalLt. Turkey seems to keep us all busy. It’s such a fascinating country, in so many ways. It will be interesting to see the direction this latest turn eventually takes! I hope all is well at your end.
Thanks Prof. That was interesting. From a layman's point of view, it just looks like Turkey was going all in on Russia, but now with Russia's future a big question mark, he's looking for a new option. He really has no other option, what can Belarus provide him? Will be interesting to see if he's willing to make the necessary changes to pursue the western option.
All in on Russia? Are you Greek or blind?
The man is two faced. Both sides know that. Only a matter of time before Erdogan runs out of luck in his poker game he is playing between two sides. Turkey economy is in deep do do! and he just about won the elections shows the mess he is heading in. Patience with him from all sides is fraying. the east do not trust him or his word and neither does the West.
That was perfect and exactly was the subject I was wondering if you were going to bring it up 🙏🏼👍
Thank you so much. Yes, I couldn't resist!
Informative video as always keep up the great work
What's up with the graph in 12:02? Pretty sure Croatia was already a member of EU in 2016
@JamesKerLindsay: Could you do a video analyzing the pros and cons, from a European perspective, of Türkiye's accession to the EU? I am puzzled as to what Türkiye brings to the table that can't already achieved through participation in other organizations or treaties; it seems to me it is more trouble than it is worth. Why would Europeans want to extend their borders, and Schengen right up to Iraq or Syria's door?
Nobody was fleeing Iraq or Syria before USA "visit". And Libya is next door (and boat ride) to Italy and Greece. But problem is that in EU nationalism is on the rise, and any expansion, especially with large Muslim country faces strong popular resistance. Explore how goes with ascension processes of various West Balkan countries and it will give some examples...
@@mladenmatosevic4591 I concur but it's besides the point. The US did what it did, now the rest of the world pays for their hubris.
But before these invasions this always was a problematic neighborhood, do you honestly think people would not have been fleeing Iraq if it bordered a European Türkiye?
In any case med to long term the issue of human migration will only get worse with climate change, which is why I wonder why anyone would want to grant Türkiye membership. It seems that would further empower right wing nationalists
@@electrosyzygy 50 or even just 25 years ago nobody saw neighborhood as key problem why Turkey cannot be member of EU, otherwise accession talks would not have been started. And "climate change" is straw man argument in this discussion. Main reason for opposition to enlargement is "diluting key values". As is now obvious, in many countries which carried feudalism to 19th sentury, many people believe that cheating system (meaning state) is acceptable and that behaviour is not limited to top level business owners. Carrying gifts to doctors and public officials was common in Ottoman Empire too, and Balkans was long time part of it. As it goes, it starts as small and innocent but ends up on large values. And if you wanted to ask, in Russian Empire was same behaviour, long before Bolsheviks...
@@mladenmatosevic4591 I'm not sure what you mean about the culture of nepotism and corruption in the Ottoman and Russian empires. Also unsure about the relevance of what we're talking about.
And I strongly disagree with your statement about the Middle East not being seen as problematic 50 years ago. 50 years ago the region was rife with conflict, there had been a few wars with more on the way, and Baathism was morphing I to authoritarianism.
I do understand that nationalists use 'values' as an argument when dealing with Muslim nations. That's not what I'm concerned with.
Simply, rationally, what does Türkiye bring to the table that Europe can't otherwise get? My contention is that Türkiye as it is now, let alone what things will be like in a few years, is probably not worth the trouble for many reasons but I'm curious what Prof JKL thinks.
Expanding Europe and Schengen to the Middle East would accelerate migration and facilitate human trafficking, further straining European finances, and you can be sure this will enhance right-wing and fascicizing political parties.
@@electrosyzygy EU functions as lose confederation so close supervision from centre does not exist and in culture of corruption muney from funds are sucked by corruption network regardless of project quality, so money is spend inefficiently. As for expansion 50 years ago people leading EU envisioned endless expansion. It would take too long to discuss why. Realistically, EU must absorb West Balkans and maybe Moldova. Everything else means huge border and other complications with less gain then even Turkey.
It was interesting to me about how Turkey and Greece actually spoke to each other during the summit. They've done the song and dance before, but still. It was very high profile a thing to happen after some recent developments, like the infamous Blue Homeland map the Turkish leader seems to support.
There is nothing really going on between Türkiye and Greece besides Greece prime minister trying to cover its internal issues by targeting Türkiye.
@@canerulu-wu7ezthink you’re misspelling turkey bro, also does turkeys desire for the agaen not register with Turks as a possible issue for Greece?
@@canerulu-wu7ezTurkey has major issues, the only country in nato without sanctions to Putin... Erdogan is trying to cover his double face! 😅😅😅
It’s 🦃🦃
@@canerulu-wu7ez Turkey is the destabiliser in Middle East.
Don't get your hopes up. Both parties walked back on their promises after the initial photo op, with parliament timelines and formalities given as excuses in unison. They are still bargaining, both privately and publicly.
The thing is Erdogan gave his word publicly that Sweden will join NATO soon.
Erdogan is a man of his words, so if parliament goes against him that makes him look weak.
@@bruceli9094 That goes both ways. Erdogan and Turkiye were promised things as well. Both parties can play that game. If you think everything is set in stone, you are mistaken. They are still bargianing, publicly.
@@emreus1 The thing is, it doesn't go both ways. The other party has fulfilled what was agreed upon (as also stated by the NATO secretary general). They have also early on stated openly some things they cannot agree to (which was not in the deal) because of fundamental laws.
So yeah, no. It doesn't go both ways. I hope Erdogan publically keeps breaking deals and ask for more handouts/bribes.
Personally I don't think anything has changed.
Russia pissed him off by backing off some of it's commitments in Syria and Erdo played this gambit.
I don't think how they feel about the west in general has changed nor will this be some beginning of a realignment.
They will sway one way but not go too far, then sway the other way and not go too far. That is essentially their policy. Quite frankly it's the only real available position to them to play. So they play it.
Yes. You are correct. They will do something that will piss off the western countries inevitably.
We've already forgotten that the main stumbling block to Turkey's admission to the EU were human rights issues. "Crack down" = repression. I was talking to a Turkish person in Lesbos last week. He made a very differentiated and intellectual impression on me. In his opinion, Erdogan is bad but not as bad as he's painted in the western press - He's a pragmatist, an opportunist - he has repeatedly done 180 degree turns in the past on controversial issues, when it became clear to him that the opposite view to his rhetoric had become more popular. The Turkish economy is on the brink of "Titanic mode" and it has mostly to do with Erdogan's ignorance and rejection of established remedies to cyclic economic crises. Now he's trying to butter up Europe to foot the bill for his stupid arrogance. If I was a fund manager, I would continue to red tag Erdogan's Turkey as an unstable investment, and the instability rests firmly on Erdogan's doorstep. It could be for example, that he perceives the wind to have changed to his disadvantage in the near future and throw Turkey's potential new rescuers back into open water. In other words: Erdogan’s record shows he can't be trusted and that causes investors to back off.
I have to say I chuckled when NATO and EU leaders, and the media were baffled by Erdogan''s blackmail last week, followed by a quick 180 degree turn. Because in domestic politics, that's what Erdogan have been doing his entire career. I fully agree with Erdogan being a pragmatist and an opportunist.
@@cemdursun how pragmatic is he when he pisses everybody off? He’s managed to make everyone distrust him, however, it’s no new discovery.
@@TenTenJ He lost trust long before this. Pissing them off is just the game he plays. We don't know what was negotiated just yet. (Hint: F16)
Erdoğan is a loose cannon. He acts as he pleases and doesn't take advice from the Turkish Central Bank, Economists or other outside country.
At the moment, he knows he's in deep trouble and needs outside support and Russia doesn't represent enough in that regard.
I despise this western insecurity y'all display at every corner. Western media shits on their own every day, you choose to not see it. As for Erdogan, when trolls were happy that he won, because that "would make the west mad", I was confused, I am 100% sure that he made a bargain with Europa and they helped him win actually. The west knows that nobody does a bargain like the Turks! He is to be admired in this regard. And yes, Turkey needs to clean a bit their act and I would be happy to see them in the EU!
Your videos are excellent. I love a faily quick deep dive into these subjects.
Good move Mr. President Erdoğan.
People like to put Erdogan in a label, either pro-Western due to Turkish membership of NATO, and aspiration for EU membership (unlikely to happen in my opinion), or pro-Russia, due to his reservations over Swedish/Finnish NATO membership, and close links to Putin. I say he is a pragmatist, trying to be with both sides and none at the same time. He is trying to straddle a very fine line between a polarised relationship of Russia and the West
Well done again prof this fantastic work
Steady, unbiased, objective, loyal to the facts, great narrative, thank you Mr. Professor. Sometimes youtube's algoryhtme may take me to good pages. 11:22 Turkey would never be accepted to the Club eventhough one day she would fulfill all criteriums of the Maastrich and Kopenhagen with 100 % maturity. Greece and Greek Cyprus would blockade by veto. It s almost certain. Better to establish special (favorized) relations based on reciprocity, on equity as much as it can, it s more just and honest for both parties.
Thank you so much! That’s very kind, and very much appreciated.
Sadly, I think the possibility of membership is now at an end. I wasn’t always so pessimistic. However, I think too much has happened to resurrect the process. But never say never!
@@JamesKerLindsay it s not big lost and not end of the world. I ve never been a pro EU' ist. It s a club let say for the birds. But we are dolphins and we cant breath there. It is never possible.
As A liberal Turk,Erdoğan is a highly unpredictable person. Words don't matter for Erdogan, results matter. In recent years, we have had much better relations with Russia compared to previous periods. There are several reasons for this, such as the issues of Syria and Karabakh, as well as the tourists coming from Russia. Considering the high inflation rate, Erdoğan does not want to directly confront Putin at the moment. However, Erdoğan is well aware that Turkey will never be an ally of Russia. When you live in a country like Turkey, you will always need friends, so Turkey will never leave NATO and become allies with Russia.
As for the European Union, Turkey will never be a member of the EU. In fact, the blame lies with Turkey in this regard because no European country would want to include a country that lacks democracy and has a high level of corruption in its union. If I were European, I wouldn't want Turkey in the EU, Erdogan knows better than Europeans that Turkey cannot become an EU member. but Erdoğan has a few reasons for doing so:
1) Sending a message to Western countries "we want you."
2) Deceiving his own people."
Every EU member has the right to veto a candidate's membership. France with its delusions of grandeur, dislikes the fact that it's only the second most powerful country of the EU and they are definitely not in favor of becoming the third, they also dislike Turkey. When Germany the biggest EU country with the most seats in Parliament has a population of 83 million, a country of 87 million like Turkey is too much to swallow. No European country would want us get the most seats in the European Parliament. Apart from that, Turkey and the EU have conflicting interests. Turkey was promised that the Cyprus issue would not become an obstacle for its membership. While the Turkish Cypriots voted in favor of the Annan plan, the Greek Cypriots voted against the solution of solving the Cyprus issue. It was only due to Greece's blackmail to block the accession of Central and Eastern European countries, that the Greek part of Cyprus was still awarded with EU membership despite not meeting the Copenhagen criteria. This is a clear example of the EU's double standards.Turkey and TRNC will not agree on anything but a two-state solution, which the Greeks don't accept. Greece and the Greek Cypriots want the Turkish Cypriots to become a minority with only minority rights. Greece and the Greek Cypriots would not vote in favor of Turkey's membership. Aside from maybe a handful of countries, all the other members would veto Turkey's membership no matter how secular our government would be. Our national interests are more important than an EU membership. As a Kemalist Turk, I have never been in favor of Turkey becoming a member of the EU. Handing over sovereignty to the EU goes against our values. As a Kemalist I value our independence. I believe that Turkey and the EU can have good relations, but nothing more than that.
Son kararı Türkiye parlamentosu verecek
Really love your videos, Professor 🖤
Thank you very much indeed! I really appreciate the support.
There was quite a bit of info you didn't put in here, but besides that great video!
Thanks. It was just a short 10-15 minute video. Entire university courses can be taught on Turkish politics and Turkey-EU relations. I had to cut out large amounts of information. But hopefully I got the main points across.
Professor, how will Turkey join the EU while having 1/3 of Cyprus occupied?
by EU recognizing the sovereign northern turkish Cyprus.
I have long advocated a settlement. And it will be needed before Turkey could ever hope to join. But we have a framework for a solution. A bizonal, bicommunal federation. However, this requires agreement by both communities.
@osmanisildak2448
How this could happen?
The north part of Cyprus is occupied by Turkey since 1974
MILITARY OCCUPIED AREAS
@@andrigeogiou8420 You mean the SAFETY AREA of Undepended North Cyprus for sure.
As a result of permanent greek attacks in the past.
Did they excuse already?
@christkoenigweg
A result of permanent attacks ,from the BAD Greeks ..!
well ..
you need to learn more about of what really happened .
Ask and Mr.James ,about ..
The Turkish Cypriots, they actually took the arms against their own state.
Against our common state , the Republic of Cyprus , back from 1963 -67 , following instructions from Turkey.
How ,you think , even Today , the nation of Turkey ,deals with the Kurdish of PKK .
Does it gives them ..chocolates ?
12:00 - that poll is nearly 10 years old!
12:00 This poll asks about "potential new members" but includes Croatia which had already joined 3 years earlier.
Great video, as usual
No western return if youve followed edrogan for years this is how he plays politics edrogan being edrogan ambitions driven by turkish and islam intrest
Haha! I fall into that increasingly rare category of Turkey watcher who remembers the time before Erdogan. I came up through the ANAP/DYP era.
@@JamesKerLindsay I may not always agree with edrogan but he knows how to play politics hes an intresting figure
@@JamesKerLindsay whoa a foreigner knowing those names is a bit of a surprise! such a weird country of politics isn't it? glad to know more people know our stuff 😁
@@JamesKerLindsay The supposedly more moderate years before Erdogan included the brutal 1974 Turkish invasion of Cyprus.
@Pardus777 The height of the Ottoman Empire were years of mass enslavement and massacre, especially targeting Christian families.
Similar to India. They both walking on a fine thread, A great balancing act that might go terribly wrong.
Hi there, new subscriber here. Enjoying your calm and neutral approach. Just a heads up: The E in Erdoğan in pronounciated like the one in "every", not like the one in "early". Thanks for the nice content.
Thank you for a very informative and well-rounded video. I'm Greek-Cypriot and most of the news around Turkey often come with a certain tone.
even with that, I struggle to understand how the EU or the West in general see any reliability in Turkey. Erdogan during the election period was making threats for invading Greece, a NATO member, earthquakes come and now they are friends again. He makes this move, and says that the new F16s will not be used against Greece, when they have violated greek airspace numerous times in the past. I understand it's all part of diplomacy but it's beyond me.
can you provide some context to the story that came out as well about Cyprus being presented as 'coordinates' due to Turkey's demands?
❤❤❤❤❤ you are amazing professor
I would not be quite as pessimistic. I do think Erdogan got more out of that than "just" F-16s and some pretty pictures with EU officials. I believe in the short term there might be more talks between both sides, and Erdogan might see the current climate in a way that the West becomes even more reliant on Türkiye than before, in a security sense.
He might see the West as an opportunity to deal with economic woes in the country and to appease them might as well make some concessions that will bring him closer to the EU. After the war, it is very much in the interest of the West to pull him as closely as possible into the Western alliance, so I could see some sort of higher level talks in the medium term.
I enjoy your analysis… Thank you
it seem that turkey need europe more than europe need turkey
Turkey has the biggest military in Europe when shit will hit the fan , Europe going to be begging for their help
Now he has to figure out how is he going to repair relations with Russia.
It would be great to see what hear what you think about the upcoming referendum in Australia and an Indigenous Voice to parliament.
It’s touted as a once in a generation opportunity to get some formal recognition of indigenous peoples in the Australian constitution.
Sanctions on Russia benefited Russia the most while only hurting Europe and West. Thanks to all the commodity prices. Europe still has to buy the oil and gas somehow and now it buys them via Saudis or Indians buying them from Russians first + the premium into Europe and West. Sanctions have backfired i think. High tech sanctions only would've worked better.
I think Erdogan is much more trustable as a human being than Putin ever was.
The hard fact is his principles probably run counter to modern european ones.
However, I think if different human beings can at least be authentic and honest to themselves it becomes less of a challenge ironing out differences in principles.
But the major concern isTurkey is not just Erdogan. Its population is not just of the former southern european stock of Roman Empire but have over last 1000 of years included the Siberian Turkic , Central Asian mongolian and Middle Eastern Arabic people.
In any democracy the demography of population matters which Is also why I am against uncontrolled migration into Europe.
The world is not a safe place for people who wishes to keep the battle for democracy and basic human rights up and running, most parts of the world and the population goes by might is right philosophy and I am no one to challenge that even if I wish to do, since the ideas of democracy and respect for human rights being entrenched within the state apparatus in practice are just 100 odd years old while the might is right one ran right from modern human inception.
In an increasingly equatable world it will become increasingly challenging to keep the democratic mindset intact.
I really doubt that. Ask the Asian nations. China is not impressed with them either. Turkey is two faced.
Thanks for yet another great video!
Now, I do believe that the dire situation of the Turkish economy, may actually bring about a fundamental change. There are few reasons for that:
1. Turkey has traditionally had close economic ties also with Russia. In range of areas, however, perhaps most notably in tourism and fossil fuels. Both these sectors, however, are dying, if their not dead already. Russia simply has very little to offer Turkey, and thr economic risk of a fall-out with Russia appears to be far less significant than they where only a year ago. Hence, I would be surprised, if Turkey comes much closer to the western line against Moscow, especially if that can open some new markets for Turkey, and result in some other economic benefits, helping the ailing economy.
2. Erdoğan just almost lost an election. He need to fix things, if for no other reason, at least in order to secure a half-decent legacy for himself.
3. EU membership may not be the best solution for anyone, hence, some other arrangement may be more realistic. Like new trade agreements. This is still dependent on repairing ties to the west, especially Europe.
4. Russia is looking increasingly weak, something that will change the tables on turkeys northern borders - to the Kaukasus - as well as the black sea region. This creates both opportunities and threats for Turkey, and the may want to cover their back with a far better relationship to the west.
Just some thoughts, however, we may see more of a change than we expect.
artık türkiyede avrupa birliği üyeliği eskisi kadar ses getiren ve ilgi çeken bir durum değil. Gümrük anlaşmasında bir yenileme ve vize serbestliği yada kolay vize gibi durumlar daha çok ilgi çekiyor.Türkler ab ye dahil olmadan ilişkileri maksimum düzeyde bağlantılı tutmak istiyor.yada en azından benim gördüğüm bu şekilde
Great catch up, thank you. It’s still a bit of mystery as to what game the thinks he’s been playing and just where he thought all his shenanigans would lead. A small side note; when Erdogan and his wife got out of the car to walk into the conference in Vilnius his wife clutched his hand firmly in what was very obviously reassurance, I though Mmm.. I bet she's much happier hob knobbing with western leaders than traipsing round some do in Russia.
Wow. According to that poll, there is less support for Turkish EU membership than Kazakhstan, Morocco, and Russia! That is very telling. Anyway, I agree that Turkey is nowhere near ready for EU membership. But I think many people in Turkey separate the EU from the US when it comes to dealing with the West. Polls have shown persistent anti-American feelings in Turkey lately, probably due to US operations in Iraq, Syria, and Afghanistan. There isn't much love for Russia or China, either. But the EU is seen as a viable partner on strategic and economic issues, much more so than those other three countries. I think Erdogan will continue to oscillate on foreign policy. But it will be interesting to see if the young people in Turkey eventually start to support the kind of reforms that would make the country more suitable for EU membership.
Die Türkei sieht die USA hinter dem Putschversuch im Juli 2016, deswegen sind die USA nicht sehr beliebt. Das sehe übrigens auch so. Das war letzte Versuch der USA mit einem Militärputsch die Türkei wieder in Griff zu bekommen. Zu dieser Tatsache kommen die von Ihnen aufgeführten Punkte. Die Türkei wird sicher keine Rechte an die EU abgeben wollen, deswegen wird die Türkei nie Mitglied in der
EU werden. Die Türkei wird sich in der EU Deutschland und Frankreich nicht unterordnen wollen, das ist ein weiterer Punkt, de gegen die
Mitgliedschaft der Türkei in der Nato spricht
We will see. I guess the future is going to be interesting.
Every EU member has the right to veto a candidate's membership. France with its delusions of grandeur, dislikes the fact that it's only the second most powerful country of the EU and they are definitely not in favor of becoming the third, they also dislike Turkey. When Germany the biggest EU country with the most seats in Parliament has a population of 83 million, a country of 87 million like Turkey is too much to swallow. No European country would want us get the most seats in the European Parliament. Apart from that, Turkey and the EU have conflicting interests. Turkey was promised that the Cyprus issue would not become an obstacle for its membership. While the Turkish Cypriots voted in favor of the Annan plan, the Greek Cypriots voted against the solution of solving the Cyprus issue. It was only due to Greece's blackmail to block the accession of Central and Eastern European countries, that the Greek part of Cyprus was still awarded with EU membership despite not meeting the Copenhagen criteria. Turkey and TRNC will not agree on anything but a two-state solution, which the Greeks don't accept. Greece and the Greek Cypriots want the Turkish Cypriots to become a minority with only minority rights. Greece and the Greek Cypriots would not vote in favor of Turkey's membership. Aside from maybe a handful of countries, all the other members would veto Turkey's membership no matter how secular our government would be. Our national interests are more important than an EU membership. As a Kemalist Turk, I have never been in favor of Turkey coming a member of the EU. Handing over sovereignty to the EU goes against what values and ideals. As a Kemalist I value our independence. I believe that Turkey and the EU can have good relations, but nothing more than that.
Don't count on it, Erdogan in his last presidency period will prop up Hakan Fidan to replace him when his term is over.
@@abadairshiFrance is the most powerful country in the EU now that the UK is out. Germany has got a bigger economy but it's a lot like Japan. It's not a powerful nation anymore it's a rich nation on a leash.
Would it be the case that Erdoğan exchanged Sweden's admission to NATO for the recognition of the TRNC? It would seem logical from his point of view if in fact they are not interested in joining the EU, and it would be a "solution" for one of Turkeys main geopolitical issue in the area
…Division which is currently the case, maybe yes but not recognition, as the Cyprus stalemate is kept & well maintained by the West cause it serves them so Mr Souvlaki; if A wanted it fixed, now would be the time to force TR to sod off from the occupation of Cyprus, there you go; Cyprus problem solved, as Erdo’s economy is in dire straits…
As someone who doesn't enjoy following politics, i greatly like your videos
Thank you so much! That’s really great to hear. :-)
I don’t think that Türkiye will join the EU as some already said, as the country is too big and borders countries like Syria and Iraq. I believe Türkiye will go his own way like it was doing the last couple of years always in mind Türkiye first and as within the next 5-10 years Türkiye will be a super power in military I’m curious about the future…
❤❤❤ Teşekkürler umarım.
Good video 🎉
Thank you very much indeed!
Mindblowing that the Greek Cypriots were accepted into the EU despite 76% of them rejecting the island’s reunification plan.
Meanwhile the Turkish Cypriots, 65% of which voted in favour of the Annan Plan, are still inhumanely isolated to this day.
Turkey was promised that the Cyprus issue would not become an obstacle for its membership. While the Turkish Cypriots voted in favor of the Annan plan, the Greek Cypriots voted against the solution of solving the Cyprus issue. Due to Greece's blackmail to veto the accession of new Member States, the Greek part was still awarded with EU membership.
Yes the EU's strange Cyprus policy has surely left a stain in relations that won't go away for a hundred years.
Strange that the Greek Cypriots chose not to be fvcked over ...
@@williamdavis9562Calling it EU's double standards would be more fitting in my opinion.
You're correct there, but even if the Cyprus issue was solved, Turkey wouldn't join the EU. It's in West Asia and has a lot of influence, as you know, from Islam, and it would be the country with the largest EU population and with borders with Middle Eastern states. Would you want to admit Turkey if you were France or Germany? Sure, the Cyprus issue was hypocrisy, I agree.
As an American of Greek ancestry, with a family history that includes in-laws descended from Greek refugees from the Turkish Genocide of 1922, I have followed the situation over the last six decades. There was the 1955 pogrom against the Greek remnant of Constantinople, the 1964 attacks on Greeks in Imbros, the bloody 1974 Turkish invasion of mostly Greek Cyprus and its bringing of many Turkish settlers to the northern part of the island in an attempt to change the demographic situation, the Turkish efforts to deny its genocidal past, the recent inflammatory language by Erdogan directed against Greece and against Europe in general, the Holy Wisdom Church made into a mosque again, and with the Turkish government now issuing maps claiming Greek islands, I see a strange situation of people scrambling over themselves to try to please the Turks. And with the current crisis between Ukraine and Russia, the matter becomes even more bizarre. You see, we are constantly being told by those wanting to be tougher with Russia that we must not practice appeasement of aggression. And yet the policy of the US and western Europe concerning Greeks and Turks for over a hundred years has been appeasement of the most extreme kind in favor of the Turks. Well, go ahead, give in to the Turks again this year, next year, and so on. Disgusting.
Thanks. I certainly have my concerns about Turkey. But we also have to be careful about how we understand and interpret history. There has been a lot of bad done by both sides to each other. For example, you talk about 1922. But let’s also remember that Greece had invaded Anatolia and was trying to incorporate it into the Greek state. This is not to excuse human rights abuses. But it is also important to recall the broader context of various actions and remember that there was a lot of ethnic cleansing and brutality committed by Greek forces. Both Greeks and Turks like to see themselves as victims, and yet conveniently forget the atrocities ‘their side’ perpetrated. Likewise, 1974 was very complex and the way was opened for the invasion by the Greek military junta’s disastrous decision to try to annex Cyprus. Had it succeeded, I often wonder how many Greeks would be decrying the blatant violation of international law that would have entailed? My point is not to say you are wrong. A lot has been done against the Greek people. But all of us also need to accept that ‘our’ national version of events is often very one-sided. I have seen that at first hand with Britain’s history with Ireland. Sometimes it helps to be able to step back and put things in their broader context.
@@JamesKerLindsay Two points: About the Greeks trying to incorporate a small part of Anatolia after World War I, they had been told of Allied backing (at first) and had already seen what had happened to the Armenians in 1915. About a coup in Cyprus as an excuse for the 1974 Turkish invasion, please note that the coup very quickly collapsed but the Turks nevertheless continued their invasion, with the great majority of the Turkish conquest and the subsequent refugee tragedy occurring AFTER the coup collapsed. (There is a saying in the US that one should never let a good crisis go to waste.) I also note that you did not address recent Turkish maps claiming Greek islands.
@@JamesKerLindsay "Likewise, 1974 was very complex" The Russian invasion/occupation of parts of Ukraine could be justified far easier than the Turkish invasion of Cyprus, but I never saw you trying to excuse the Russians. For example: The Greeks in Cyprus have many 1000s of years of history, unlike the Turks who conquered the island after the Europeans colonized America. In Crimea both the Russians and Ukrainians have the same amount of history. The occupied part of Cyprus had a clear Greek Cypriot majority, which was ethnically cleansed by the Turks and replaced by Anatolian Settlers. The parts of Ukraine that Russia occupies are territories which already had a Russian majority.
@@johnsakelaris7 Totally agree with both your comments although I understand that James tries to be neutral due to his role!!
@@thcyprus Exactly!! The more I compare the two situations, the more I realize that they are the same!!!
Wow your outro made me laugh out loud 😂😂😂
I'm sure he got _something_ out of it. I'm sure it was a lot more than some F-16s.
Maybe a refund for those f35s if it wasn't given already.
There was talk about a 14 billion dollar IMF loan.
Of course there are a lot more than those F16s updates.
Their economy is still depending on Dollar ..
Right?
For those who think Turkey will align with Russia or the West, the biggest problem is they haven't understood the Turks as clear as expected. The Turks are overproud of themselves and only care about themselves, they do not believe on any total alliance, even if this comes to their own kins (unless coming from the same Oghuz tribes).
The nature of the Turks are always about competing for power and influence. They do not have the idea of human rights or social rights. It's about themselves and only, which makes them perfectly suited to Churchill's quote, "no lasting friends, no lasting enemies, only lasting interests". For once, Turkey allied with Russia for interests, but when it became clear that Turkey found that Azerbaijan could be threatened from a joint Iranian-Russian alliance since 2022, they switched side. This was what they matter the most - their own Oghuz kins, which is their biggest interests. They don't care about Kipchak Kazakhs, they don't care about Afghans, they don't care about Pakistanis. They care about only themselves.
Well there's also a significant Kemalist section in Turkey. Unfortunately they're in the opposition as Erdogan has occupied all institutions.
@@mv_5878 Even if Kemalists were to gain power again, the old romantic days were long gone. A new reality is being set, and it is not a distortion. It's entirely real. The only thing I feel still staying the same is the ongoing demise of Russia as a superpower.
@@mv_5878 You do realize, that Kemalists would be far more extreme in putting Turkeys interests first, unlike Erdogan who acts as Europes refugee camp, fucked over the economy and education, right?
I have seen some of your previous answers in a variety of videos. You appear to be very well-versed, with Reddington-like takes. Do you like the Blacklist and what do you think about the future of Turkey, if they are that overproud of themselves?
@@huwenkai440 Turkey definitely thinks itself as a regional great power. They hassle far beyond their own borders. I guess when they realised they will never be accepted in the EU (the coup attempt was the last nail in the coffin) they went full neo-Ottoman. I guess you have a point - what else would explain Erdogan's popularity, after he has wrecked the Turkish economy completely, if not collective dreams of grandeur?
The European Union would either partially or fully commit to change the matters of reducing the number of visa application rejections for the educated Turks and to perhaps engage in further economic aspects by means of trade. Other than that, I can’t see the E.U allowing Turkey anywhere near the bloc.
When discussing Turkey-EU relations, it is a significant achievement to not mention the migration issue. Shouldn't we talk about the agreements between the EU and Turkey to accommodate Syrian refugees and the billions of euros that the EU has provided to Turkey?
I did mention it. But here’s the thing: in any video I do there are any number of topics that I have to cover. I can’t cover everything in detail. So I end up with a long list of things that one viewer or another felt I should have covered. In these situations, I ask that people consider whether, in total, I was broadly right with my analysis and conclusions.
@@JamesKerLindsay Oh, immigration? No, it's not just 'one of the issues' in Turkey-EU relations, it's the star of the show! It's significant enough to have those lovely democratic European governments cozy up to an authoritarian leader - who would've thought? Apparently, the EU isn't looking for a democratic partner, no, they're in the market for a loyal guard dog. But of course, you're well aware of this little open secret, aren't you?
there needs to be some sort of guarantee within the agreement to transfer new F-16s to Turkey that ensures they won’t be used against Cyprus and Greece. In fact the US should focus on arming Cyprus instead as they are a much more reliable ally than Turkey and deserve a decent defensive capability.
Well spoken Mr Cream!! If only they followed through this 50 years ago..!! Now they see who their true & stable allies are in the area! Cyprus should ask to push TR out of Cyprus; Cyprus prob solved in an instant & now&s the time to do it! Can u imagine a free Cyprus becoming a Nato member & allowing (another…shh-current one is also a secret..) US base on its soil, in exchange of guaranteing Cyp’s security & freedom?
@@ephilippos The reason why Turkey was accepted into NATO is its Geography. They bordered the Soviet Union and were able to project soft- and if necessary hard power on its oil-rich southern neighbours. Even though the cold war has ended and the Soviet Union is no more, we have seen that the geographical enemy of NATO is still the same. Along with an ever expansioning China that gains more and more influence in both Africa and the middle east, Anatolia and the Bosporus straits stays one of the absolute key locations in the world.
Not to mention that Turkey is stronger then Cyprus. With over 80 Million people, Turkey is able to bunker up its mountains and even a 2 billion China wont be able to enter in without horrific loses. Turkey has the second largest army in NATO and a high quality weapon research sector. Turkey in most military fields is not dependant on an USA babysitting them with everything they need in order to keep up a fight. Even Cyprus and Greece combined come not even close to the importance Turkey holds, both geographically and militarily. I agree that Turkey is kind of the wildcard at the moment, but Turkey is never going to change out NATO and EU allies for unreliable and unprofitable powers in the east. Erdogan is justing flexing to get the best deals for Turkey and wants to increase its independance. You may dislike that, but that itself is no reason to believe that Turkey would not honor a call to arms in case NATO is attacked.
So at the end, it does not matter how reliable Cyprus is or not. No offense to Greeks or Cypriots, but a tiny island like Cyprus will never contribute anything useful to the alliance, aside from providing bases. Something Turkey already does in its own territory so the need for bases of Cyprus is out of the picture already. Honestly, the other way around would be just as attractive for the USA. Just unite the island under Turkey and get bases that way.
And just for the record: 50 years ago it was Turkey who proposed an independant Cyprus with rights for everybody and it was Greece that wanted to forcefully take the island for their own. So today you are supporting the idea of an independant Cyprus and reject the idea of Cyprus being taken by another state, while 50 years ago you do the opposite? That shows that you re not arguing based on rationality, but that you are simply bias towars Turks. Which takes any creditability away from you.
@@sinanroyal5359 Actually, the development of the port at Alexandroupolis in Greece renders the Bosporus straits irrelevant and the new connective train route between the port and Odessa will mean that it will take mere hours not 5 days through the straits to get supplies over to Ukraine. The Americans are slowly pulling out of the base in Incirlik,Turkey as the sentiment in the country is becoming very anti-American. I think you’re focusing too much on numbers. If there’s anything to learn from the war in Ukraine is that size doesn’t always matter. Bullets are small but they can kill.
@@elenigeorgiou87 The Bosporus straits is not only important for shipment to the Ukraine, but also a vital part of trade for Russia and the gate that leads from Asia to Europe.
The Amercians are not only pulling out of Incirlik, but from the Middle East in general. Since the Trump administration USA started to shift its focus on the far east away from Islamic lands. I agree that the sentimant is becoming anti American, but that iself is no reason for the USA to leave a country. Most countries USA is present in militarily hate the USA.
I put in a lot of numbers here, but my point is not to that because of statistics USA will keep in touch with Turkey and vice versa. I am talking about Realpolitik. At the end of the day, a government is always chasing success in order to survive and to gain power. Turkey is a far to important country to lose for the USA and on the other side to strong to take it down as happened with Iraq. The other way around the case is similar. Not only the USA, but the West in general is too important for Turkey to let them down. China, Russia and India can never replace the EU and USA for Turkey, wether it be economically, culturally or militarily. In every sense the West is preferable to Turkey, thats why Turkey even though everything that happened keeps ties with the West in tact. Turkey is a wildcard, but a wildcard does not mean stupid. Wildcard simply means that it refues to act according to given rules set by an institution, an alliance or whatever and instead act as the wildcard sees fit. And thats exactly what Erdogan does.
I think you are focused too much on ideology. A similar worldview and a shared culture is an important factor of course, but history has shown that the needs always beat ideology. Even a completly autocratic Turkey would be a fitting partner, as long as they are open to work with the West aswell. No matter if they are a wildcard or not, as the benefits the West reaps out of that alliance are too great to ignore. Which is why even an autocratic Turkey will work together with the West. I hope though this will never become reality.
Again, I am not hating on Greece and Cypus. They are allies of the USA aswell and are providing bases and stuff. Even though it is because of their rivalry with the Turks, Greece has one of the largest armies in Europe and their geography makes them as hard to conquer as Anatolia. But Turkey simply comes with advanteges Greece and Cyprus can not. The bigger population, as I have already mentioned. The autonomous military sector. The large army and the positioning. If Erdogans strategic interested are guaranteed to be fulfilled, Turkey is the stationing hub for any operation in the middle east for the NATO. For example, NATO decides to take down Assad. Erdogan will demand the Opposition to be put in charge afterwards and will demand the end for the YPG. If the USA agrees to this, the USA could launch its invasion into Syria from Turkey. Hell, Turkey would do that job themselves if in turn USA interested are guaranteed. Thats how politics works. Even though with the USA retreating, the middle east stays attractive. Its central location and strategic resources will always keep the middle east as one of Earths key regions. And Turkey is able to provide opportunities there that Greece and Cyprus could not.
I believe that a complete annexation of Cyprus would be hard to realize for Turkey. NATO would oppose that, the world would need to meet a real low point for that to happen internationally accepted. But if things world wide get worse, and they are getting worse, Turkey could use Northern Cyprus as a bargaining chip. Either give it to Cyprus in exchange for massive concessions somewhere else. EU membership for example. Or getting Northern Cyprus officially recognized in exchange for Turkish loyality and aid.
The world in 20 years will look completly different. With China on the rise, the middle east forming a united front against the USA (atleast for now) and Russia on the brink of collapse, power games will become the norm again. And Turkey, who is an aspiring power themselves waiting to enfroce their interests upon the middle east, is an attractive ally to have. Erdogan knows this. If he is loud now it is mostly for internal reasons. Appearing strong is important within turkish politics. Their are very militarily minded people. But shouting is all he does and not acting. He will only act if his main interests are endangered.
I think for me the inherent contradiction with EU Turkey relations is that while the EU are unwilling to entertain having such a strongman and authoritarian figure leading a member state he is the exact person they want as leader of Turkey when it comes to controlling the flow of migrants into Europe and offering a safe buffer between mainland Europe and the forever wars of the middle east.
Nah! It was Erdoğan who OPENED the migrant pipeline so that he could use desperate hordes to blackmail Europe.
i dont think there’s anything wrong with erdoğan being the president that would disqualify turkey from being a part of the eu. he’s not really undemocratic, just authoritarian.
i think the bigger problem is the racism many in europe have towards muslims, and the sheer size of turkey.
Every EU member has the right to veto a candidate's membership. France with its delusions of grandeur, dislikes the fact that it's only the second most powerful country of the EU and they are definitely not in favor of becoming the third, they also dislike Turkey. When Germany the biggest EU country with the most seats in Parliament has a population of 83 million, a country of 87 million like Turkey is too much to swallow. No European country would want us get the most seats in the European Parliament. Apart from that, Turkey and the EU have conflicting interests. Turkey was promised that the Cyprus issue would not become an obstacle for its membership. While the Turkish Cypriots voted in favor of the Annan plan, the Greek Cypriots voted against the solution of solving the Cyprus issue. It was only due to Greece's blackmail that the Greek part of Cyprus was still awarded with EU membership despite not meeting the Copenhagen criteria.Turkey and TRNC will not agree on anything but a two-state solution, which the Greeks don't accept. Greece and the Greek Cypriots want the Turkish Cypriots to become a minority with only minority rights. Greece and the Greek Cypriots would not vote in favor of Turkey's membership. Aside from maybe a handful of countries, all the other members would veto Turkey's membership no matter how secular our government would be. Our national interests are more important than an EU membership. As a Kemalist Turk, I have never been in favor of Turkey coming a member of the EU. Handing over sovereignty to the EU goes against what values and ideals. As a Kemalist I value our independence. I believe that Turkey and the EU can have good relations, but nothing more than that.
@@abadairshi I will apologise first, but really that was much too long winded for me to stay interested in it. My opinion on the EU is that beyond free trade and movement it's just another way the elites are trying to centralise power and limit the number of people in control. I think Turkey are in the perfect place, and when used appropriately they have an immense amount of potential diplomatic power. Whether that helps the average citizen I do not know.
The Forever Wars caused by the US and their poodles UK and Europe.
👍👍
How much of the EU's lack of interest in having Turkey be a member is racism/Islamophobia and how much of it is genuine political concern about Erdogan's obvious authoritarianism? I am truly asking, I am American, so I do not know anything about it really.
Every EU member has the right to veto a candidate's membership. France with its delusions of grandeur, dislikes the fact that it's only the second most powerful country of the EU and they are definitely not in favor of becoming the third, they also dislike Turkey. When Germany the biggest EU country with the most seats in Parliament has a population of 83 million, a country of 87 million like Turkey is too much to swallow. No European country would want us get the most seats in the European Parliament. Apart from that, Turkey and the EU have conflicting interests. Turkey was promised that the Cyprus issue would not become an obstacle for its membership. While the Turkish Cypriots voted in favor of the Annan plan, the Greek Cypriots voted against the solution of solving the Cyprus issue. It was only due to Greece's blackmail to block the accession of Central and Eastern European countries, that the Greek part of Cyprus was still awarded with EU membership despite not meeting the Copenhagen criteria. Turkey and TRNC will not agree on anything but a two-state solution, which the Greeks don't accept. Greece and the Greek Cypriots want the Turkish Cypriots to become a minority with only minority rights. Greece and the Greek Cypriots would not vote in favor of Turkey's membership. Aside from maybe a handful of countries, all the other members would veto Turkey's membership no matter how secular our government would be. Our national interests are more important than an EU membership. As a Kemalist Turk, I have never been in favor of Turkey becoming a member of the EU. Handing over sovereignty to the EU goes against what values and ideals. As a Kemalist I value our independence. I believe that Turkey and the EU can have good relations, but nothing more than that.j
Racism and Islamophobia plays a major role but what's wrong with that? The current obsession with accepting everyone into everything is insane. You are allowed to like/dislike anyone for whatever reason and that was the case for all of Human history until like six decades ago when the powers that be decided to not allow that anymore.
As someone who doesn’t see the Wesr as better than the Alternatives I think Turkey is taking the right steps. I think it would be foolish to invest fully in the western camp when they are no longer dominant. It would mean missing out on opportunities to build relationships with other countries who will be stronger in 50-100 years time. Turkey has to consider itself first and ultimately its actions might lead to a more balanced world. It’s not a good thing the Russia and the US are fighting a proxy war in Ukraine and personally I don’t see one side as better than the other.
Thanks as always Prof! 👍🏻👍🏻
Thank you so much, Peter. Have a great weekend! :-)
But what did they actually agree on, money?
Hell of a turnaround time, Professor. Expert analysis of Turkey’s about-face. Should Erdogan continue down this path, do you think we’ll see a rise of Hungary becoming the “black sheep” of NATO?
Thank you so much. I am so incredibly sorry I didn’t reply sooner. I have only just seen this. (UA-cam really is terrible at notifications.) That really was incredibly kind of you. I can’t tell you how much I appreciate the support. And my sincerest apologies again for the delayed thank you. Very best regards, James
May Allah SWT bless Turkey and its beautiful people from Pakistan 🙂🇵🇰🇹🇷🤩😍. Mashallah mashallah mashallah marhaba marhaba love respect and support Turkey and its beautiful people from Pakistan 🙂🇵🇰🇹🇷🤩😍.
Doctor, you have heard of the false retreat technique of horse archers, haven't you?
Jim - I love your work, but EU accession negotiations halted long before the Gezi events.
Thanks. But Turkey was in fact still opening accession chapters until 2016. :-) neighbourhood-enlargement.ec.europa.eu/enlargement-policy/turkiye_en (I’ve written a lot on Turkey-EU relations.)
Climbdown is bit of a strong word, and certainly not applicable. But, mostly I agree he has changed his stance, but it cannot be viewed separately from everything else.
He pushed his previous position, when he was facing offensive positions from others, but he never left the Western camp.
His change in stance reflects the fact that Turkey believes in the West, and is willing to be Cooperative provided they don't continue to behave like idiots.
The most likely outcome is that Turkey is continuing to play on both sides of the fence, in the aims for it's own greater benefit, which if you ask me, is a masterclass in leadership and diplomacy. Put your own country and people first, while attempting to satisfy all international/foreign parties. To be honest we need more such politicians in Europe, rather than this WEF herd we have.
A masterclass on how to tank your economy, turn allies into enemies, and ensure that you have zero credibility or friendly relationships when things go bad. Truly inspirational.
@@CedarHunt said "allies" quite literally support terrorist organizations against Turkey and critized Turkey, after it shot down a jet of their supposed common enemy Russia. Also Im pretty sure Turkeys recent successes when it comes to negotiating between conflict parties or working to enable the grain deal symbolizes Turkeys credibility pretty well
@@quvy338Turkey murders dissidents and is guilty of genocide, maybe if they were more civilized they wouldn't have so many "terrorists" resisting their jackboot. Turkey shooting down that Russian jet was an incredibly stupid move and that fool erdogan rightly took heat for it. The idea that Turkey has any credibility is laughable.
Being the diplomatic equivalent of an Internet troll may be fine realpolitik, but as others pointed out, it will only make your allies hate and distrust you because your word means nothing. You may get your way at first, but eventually ranks will close against you, and then you'll be on the outside looking in.
@@merrycynic It was always the case that the Turks were "outsiders looking in" Erogden watched happen when the Yanks supported the destabilisation of Syria and it's support of PKK as well Libya both which have been a disaster for Turkey, it forced them into military conflict, created a migrant crisis and renewed terror attacks in Turkey. Then rather then actually work with Turkey the EU instead to applied pressure to the Turks attempting to force them shoulder the burden of the migrant criss on their own.
The Turks flipped the script with the migrant crisis and rather then close ranks as many expected the EU buckled almost immediate conceding to their demands. The Turks know neither the EU nor the US can actually be trusted. It's only natural that the Turks will continue to leverage as much power from the relationship as they can going forward.
He may have a different personal agenda in term of NATO security alliance, a stronger and bigger defenses capability may not be the only goal for him, if it doesn't suit his domestic political goal.
I don't want to join the European Union, but we need the money. I was disappointed when Erdogan made the European Union statement, but since Turkey was about to go bankrupt, I understood the reason for Erdogan's move. We are in a bad situation.
Bir kriz yaşadığımız gerçek ama çok gençsin biz batmayiz😂
@@bir_cumle O kadar emin olmamalısın bence, batmaz denen Osmanlı bile battı.
Nagihancim çok gençsin bu tarz yorumlarını aramizda yaparız eleştiride yaparız bu ayrı fakat yabancılara karşı ülke hakkında olumsuz konuşmak çokta bu ülke vatandaşına yakışmıyor. Biz olumlu olmak zorundayız. sana benden bir büyük olarak tavsiye ülkesini seven biri her koşulda ülkesini korur ve olumlu konuşur.
@@bir_cumle Avrupa Birliği’ne girmek istemediğimi belirttim aslında. Ekonomimizin kötü olduğunu söylemek de ülkemi aşağılamak değil, gerçeklerden bahsetmek. Duyarlılığın ve tavsiyen için teşekkür ederim ama :)
Greece and Turkey really need to come to an agreement on the Aegean Islands for a start
What kind of agreement? There are Treaties that determine the sovereignty of these islands!! Or do you imply that these Treaties should change?
@@motocount I'm talking about the territorial waters
@@dreamcast3607 ok!!
As you wrote it, it seems like the sovereignty of the islands is questionable!
OK .
What kind of agreement ,would be .?
To be equal owners in our yard , in our homes ?
They already ,still occupied the half of Cyprus , ignoring of all of the UN resolutions about peace and justice.
They ignoring ..JUSTICE !
What kind of agreement ,they want about the Aegean islands ?
@@mehmetk.501 Really? So, what are you going to do about it?
Endogamy cannot be trusted, ever. His order of priorities: 1. Himself, 2. His cronies, 3. Radical Islam
That's right.
Triggers ! That is of what the Turks are .
Not long ago ,and for almost a year, they was threading Greece, about the Aegean islands. From their priminister till the last teenager. Then with those earthquakes ,they became a bit softer..till they had those problems, from the Americans ,about their F 16s update.
Oh , they can pass through a needle hole now . !
Till when ?
Turkey, is still occupied the half almost of Cyprus, since 1974 , ignoring of all of the UN resolutions about peace and justice for the island. Is even trying in our days, to turn of those occupied areas in to a separate " recognise "state ..
Takers ..!
That is of what they are....
@droomankaas5904 you can keep your Islam there and each others hands off but it does not belong in Europe.
Just full ep Old is gold help you tube video
❤❤❤تحية لكم استاذ جميس من موريتانيا ٩❤❤❤
Erdo just wants the Customs Union & free Visa to EU for TR citizens….he wants the benefits, without the EU obligations; He wants the baby without the pains of pregnancy…😅
Why not, you can have baby in tube!!
@@kristinazboodram173 ….& not only! Ask the Armenians & Greeks what TR are; they know better….!!
@@ephilippos yes they know better, As a Turk we were food
Soldiers and peasant!! In otoman empire, Ermanian and greeks Banker and industry , despite that we did living together 500 years
We don't mind living again under the Turkish government!!
@@atillahan4100 u can live under Ottomans, we won’t
As a Kurdish Turkish, your Turkish history is better than mine. Thanks…
Thank you! :-) To be fair, I have been working on Turkey for over 30 years.
An inevitable outcome.
In my opinion, there is another factor to take into account besides the country's financial distress: Saudi Arabia has completely changed its posture in the region. Previously aligned with the Americans in exchange for implicit protection of the dynasty, the Saudi state has recently been cultivating relations with China, and in this context has ceased its hostile behavior towards Iran, the bête noire of the United States. Thanks to renewed ties with Iran, Saudi Arabia and its satellites now control navigation in the Persian Gulf, a strategic asset. This reversal of Saudi alliances is accompanied by the Russification of Syria, to the detriment of the Kurds, whom Erdogan perceives as a threat to Turkey (or to his power?). As Turkey's rivals in the Middle East move further away from the Americans, it's only logical that Turkey should move closer to them.
Generally, Russians in Syria are best news for Kurds and other smaller ethno-religious communities in Syria, considering the alternative. However, Kurds in Syria are only smallest part of total Kurdish nation, and cannot alone be Kurdish state. But West already rejected declaration of independence of Iraqi Kurds and does not have any indication of support for Kurdish independence frim Turkey. And oil fields in Syria are in Sunni Arab area, so Kurds are used by USA as occupying force in order to prevent legitimate Syrian government from reclaiming them
@@mladenmatosevic4591 I'm not sure. Kurds are in the majority in the north of the country, particularly in the oil-producing regions. These areas are in a Kurdish Autonomous Region that dates back to before the civil war.
An agreement was reached in 2019 under the Trump administration between the American oil company Delta Crescent Energy and the autonomous Kurdish administration to exploit these oil fields. Several incidents have pitted Russian and American forces against each other, with the latter preventing the former from gaining access to oil and gas sites in the provinces of Hassaké and Deir ez-Zor. In September 2020, after a heated confrontation, the Pentagon announced a reinforcement of its posture in the region, with the dispatch of several additional M2A2 Bradley armored vehicles and a Sentinel radar used for air defense.
Now that Mr. Trump has left the White House, his successor, Joe Biden, clearly has other intentions. Asked on February 9, 2021 whether the new administration was also determined to "protect" oil fields in the Kurdish sector, Pentagon spokesman John Kirby clearly said no. Except "where appropriate under certain circumstances to protect civilians", he said.
"Department of Defense personnel and contractors are not authorized to provide assistance to a private company [...] seeking to exploit oil resources in Syria," Kirby went on to clarify.
"It's important to remember that our mission there is to enable the enduring defeat of the Islamic State," the Pentagon spokesman continued. He insisted: "That's why they [U.S. military personnel] are there."
The presence of U.S. troops in Syria is frequently questioned by Republican lawmakers.
@@charlesjenner1951 You understand that "Autonomous regions" have no right to sign such contracts and in fact that oil fields were used for decades before civil war. So it is clear case of imperialistic resource plundering. And by which ethnic map Kurds made majority so south in any case?
@@mladenmatosevic4591 There is an autonomous region in northern Syria known as Rojava or the Democratic Federation of Northern Syria, also known as the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria (AANES). It is a de facto autonomous region that has been controlled by Kurdish militias since 2012. The population of the region is estimated to be around 6 million people as of 2017. It consists of several self-governing sub-regions in the areas of Afrin, Jazira, Euphrates, Raqqa, Tabqa, Manbij, and Deir Ez-Zor. Rojava is unique in that it is based on a libertarian socialist ideology of democratic confederalism promoting decentralization, gender equality, environmental sustainability, social ecology, and pluralistic tolerance for religious, cultural, and political diversity...
But remember that the Syrian Kurdish population that can be estimated at 3 to 3.5 million, or nearly 15% of the population of Syria has faced discrimination and repression historically, by the dominant Arab etnnicity.
You can take the merchant away from the bazaar, but you can't take the bazaar away from the merchant.
The reason Erdogan has given up on Russia is that Russia has suffered heavy losses in Ukraine, Wagner's coup attempt and Putin's desperation in the face of this incident. This is the reason why Erdogan is turning to the West, because Erdogan does not support the side that will be defeated.
Erdogan, behind his bravado of islamic and turkic is a pragmatist at heart. He sees that russia is decling and has allied himself accordingly
His talk of joining the EU is completely wishful thinking and if the US attempts to coerce the EU into accepting Turkey it would be the functional end of the organisation.
It would be like having another Hungary. Except this one is more blatently autocratic, illibreal, against minorities both sexual and ethnic as well as having over 80 million people. Making it the largest member of the Union by population and one of the most influential. Considering western europes experience with islamic terrorism i doubt their populations will accept a singular muslim country having that much influence.
Hello, would it be possible to just use English language in these video headlines. These seem like fake videos if the topic does not mean anything but just words in wrong order. Thank you. (fan from an country google can't translate)
Thanks a lot for the feedback. Could you let me know which language in particular you are referring to. It seems to work for many languages. But I know some are just terrible. (The new generation of AI should completely change all this.)
@@JamesKerLindsay Finnish language
@@juhalehto6494 Haha. Thanks. I should have guessed. 😀 I don’t think I have tried it before. And clearly for good reason. Many apologies. I’ll try to delete it. Some languages are best left untouched. We’ll know AI is a true danger when it conquers Finnish!
Dear Prof...it is not Turkey anymore, but T U R K i Y E
No. Not buying it. Türkiye is an act of monumental political illiteracy and a sign of an inferiority complex. No other country does this. Not Spain, Germany, Greece, India, Japan, or China - to name just a few. And I wouldn’t dream of insisting that someone Turkish calls my country ‘The United Kingdom’ in English when speaking Turkish. Besides, English speakers can’t get it right and make it sound silly. You should be pushing back against this ridiculous move.
"Unity" at the expense of more suppression and persecution for the Kurds.
He realized russia is losing the war and now being best friends with the west
Bro think 31 country vs 1 country
I think winer is russia 🇷🇺
As a Russian citizen, I think Erdo's western move is not good for the whole region around the Black Sea. But let's see
A new start? I doubt it. A continuation of the same old policy. Always seem open to alternative relationships, until a better deal comes along. Erdoğan will always follow what he perceives as Turkey and Erdoğan's interests. He has always been mercurial, and that is not going to change.
I would actually tend to agree. But I do wonder if the state of the economy is so bad that this will constrain him - until it improves and he can do what he wants again. But I have heard that it is on the brink of a crisis.
@@JamesKerLindsay A fair point, my only quibble is the idea that it is on the brink of crisis, I'd say it's been in full on crisis for a couple of years.
Right now, the main opportunity for growth, to my limited knowledge admittedly, is tourism. With Russian tourism to the rest of Europe restricted, that has made Turkey massively attractive to Russian tourism. While I expect Erdoğan to continue bargaining with the west, I doubt he can afford to alienate Russia too much. Our Lukashenko?
As an EU citizen I can confirm there is very little popular support for Turkey entering the EU (Small sample size I know) . Before any EU enlargement there needs to be a mechanism for expelling nations that dont meet the democratic criteria. (Looking at you Hungary)
EU entering BRICS is a higher possibility than Turkey entering the EU. :) Why my country is willing to become Afghanistan I still don't know.
Every EU member has the right to veto a candidate's membership. France with its delusions of grandeur, dislikes the fact that it's only the second most powerful country of the EU and they are definitely not in favor of becoming the third, they also dislike Turkey. When Germany the biggest EU country with the most seats in Parliament has a population of 83 million, a country of 87 million like Turkey is too much to swallow. No European country would want us get the most seats in the European Parliament. Apart from that, Turkey and the EU have conflicting interests. Turkey was promised that the Cyprus issue would not become an obstacle for its membership. While the Turkish Cypriots voted in favor of the Annan plan, the Greek Cypriots voted against the solution of solving the Cyprus issue. It was only due to Greece's blackmail to block the accession of Central and Eastern European countries, that the Greek part of Cyprus was still awarded with EU membership despite not meeting the Copenhagen criteria. This is a clear example of the EU's double standards. Turkey and TRNC will not agree on anything but a two-state solution, which the Greeks don't accept. Greece and the Greek Cypriots want the Turkish Cypriots to become a minority with only minority rights. Greece and the Greek Cypriots would not vote in favor of Turkey's membership. Aside from maybe a handful of countries, all the other members would veto Turkey's membership no matter how secular our government would be. Our national interests are more important than an EU membership. As a Kemalist Turk, I have never been in favor of Turkey becoming a member of the EU. Handing over sovereignty to the EU goes against our values. As a Kemalist I value our independence. I believe that Turkey and the EU can have good relations, but nothing more than that.
@@pingu9729 How awesome. Do you expect a trophy?
EU is becoming a retiree club at a very fast pace. Around 25 years later, EU will beg Turkey to join the club. Let's see what Turks will say then.
Turkey is aging as well. The proportion of Turks will fall as their share of the population meanwhile the booming Kurdish minority is growing at a rapid pace. Turkey also had to deal with the growing population of Syrians(Arabs), this will Balkanize Turkey by 2050
I think not , what we saw in Vilnius is more to do with American arm twisting than with anything else .
Erdogans core voters do not have EU membership as a priority and see Turkiye as the regional power and want to keep it that way .
I have no doubt that at some point in the future Turkiye will join the EU but we are looking at least 15/20 years from now .
The biggest obstacle Turkiye has in joining is its military who will lose considerable power and influence should Turkiye ever join .
If someone's greatest "value" is mammon, then you can expect from them whatsoever but not integrity.
Erdogan is a pragmatist. I don't believe he shares ideologies with the West or Putin/Xi. He is all about squeezing out the best result for Turkey. He's just playing the same game as Xi, albeit better.
das sehe ich genauso wie Sie
Thats right. Türkiye will never give any of its interests for EU. Its almost impossible. First Turkish interests.
Best results for Turkey or best results from himself?
Turkiye and Erdoğan never left the West. Nevertheless, you cannot ignore billions of economic trade with Russia, therefore it's a balancing act.
This was great 👍