Why Russia is weakening Kaliningrad
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- Опубліковано 24 тра 2024
- Why Russia is weakening Kaliningrad
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Oliver Franke
Charles Street
Research & Writing:
Emanuele Martinelli, Oliver Franke
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Timothy Simpson
You can't quote 2015 studies about Russia's possibilities to isolate the Baltic states, no one imagined then that Sweden and Finland would become NATO members.
Nato is pointless, if USA for whatever reason deems that article5 is not initiated its game over. Also Finland and Sweden has no landbridge to baltics anyway
Come January 20, all NATO bets are off
@@cortesimerci35So meaningless in fact that russia ahas never attacked Nato conventionally in it's entire history.
Latvia and Estonia have many ports to receive military reinforcements from Sweden and Finland
@@DrinkTheKoolAid62 yeah, that mentality worked so well in 1940s.. oh wait..
Not to mention that 9 years ago analysts didn't understand that, as its Ukraine misadventure has emphasized, Russia and the USSR were two completely different military animals.
“A 2015 study”
I somehow suspect their findings would be a lot less pessimistic these days 😂
Realy? Now when we have showed that most of our equipment wouldn't make much difference. 😂
@@niklasnorberg5071 ? Without it, there is no doubt Ukraine would have fallen a long time ago.
@@niklasnorberg5071 It only stopped the advance of the 'second best army in the world'(according to Russia anyway) and even pushed them back. No difference at all
Poland's reinforcing its borders! History shows them the road from the past leading to the most possible future! 🇺🇦💙🇺🇲🩵🇵🇱
They getting ready for war with NATO, they can't defend Kaliningrad at the start so they're redeploying all materiel.
The isolation of the baltic has been effectively nullified by the accession of Finland ans Sweden in NATO
yes
@@notarmchairhistorian7779 exactly
The nato thing was only symbolic Sweden has been a US ally for years as the spying cooperation between them and the US revealed
@@notarmchairhistorian7779 overrun?
@@notarmchairhistorian7779 Russia doesn't have an interest of a strong presence in the Baltics?
Small correction: Åland is a self-governing territory and completely demilitarized. If NATO wanted to use those islands, that would have to change
I came to comment the same thing.
Really how come?
@@beepboopbeepp The demilitarization of the Åland islands was one of the Soviet Unions requirements in the peace talks after the winter war. As one of the conditions of a demilitarized Åland was a non-aggressive Russia, talks in both Finland and Sweden have begun about whether to start placing troops there again.
With that said, Åland is special as it is legally a part of Finland but it's a self-governing area consisting of mainly swedes. The question arises if it becomes remilitarized, who will be stationed there?
I thought he said Gothland, the land where all the goth people live
@@Bald_Zeus BOTH!
Kaliningrad lost a lot of pressure it had over Poland when Poland finished the Vistula Spit canal too.
Yeah it was hilarious seeing the Russian's seethe and cope over it lol.
Man, it so funny😂 Pressure on what? Elbląg port is so small, its not a vital for Poland like at all, so idea of building this canal was kinda not popular in Poland. The main pressure are russian nuclear weapons, jets and EW systems, and the main problem, that we cant do anything with em
@@wladziuuuuWhy did RUS gripe so much about the building of the canal?
@@wladziuuuu
Russian Jets are jokes.
Russian pilots are even greater jokes.
Russian EW systems are a threat to shitty drones.
Maybe nukes, if they even work still.
But trying to launch nukes from Kaliningrad and expect patriot systems to not take them all down is a joke lol.
@@philipliethen519prove it
How up to date are those estimations of Russia taking the Baltics really? The same experts who said Ukraine would fall in a matter of days? I think the only thing we know for sure is that we know very little and that the conditions of war have changed dramatically since the last great European conflicts.
Ukraine if western support halts they would fall in a few months
@@baguettedestroyer4145 it already had a 7 month period of no US and barely any european aid before the 60B$ package came around. so it'd take atleast half a year.
@@baguettedestroyer4145 This was not the point here. The expectation (by both the NATO countries as well as Russia) was that Ukraine would fall within a few days. This didn't happen, the quick invasion failed. The longer term development is of course a different picture. And if we project this expectation (in the short run, they will resist in the long run, it depends on support from elsewhere), one could argue that Kalinigrad would be the more isolated place, that will succumb, not the Baltics.
Ukraine had like largest standing army, Nato training and fortifications since 2014, and overall is twice the size of Poland.
If all things equal we assume that baltics defend themselves, the frontlines would still move like 100km as buffer zone. Lithuanian capital is literally 35km away from Belarus.
Not to mention that there is no military in baltics, and massive ethnic russian minority.
Suvalki gap would be covered by drones and artillery , nobody could pass through.
There are zero minefields and zero fortifications, Russians could move full speed and be in every part of baltics in a first day.
@@cortesimerci35 baltics Have forests thats why the baltic partisans were called the forest brothers
Putin simply needs his military personel and equipment in ukraine. He can easily later rearm kaliningrad. He knows its safe from nato because nato would never dare to attack first. Any other explanation is just overthinking it.
NATO could potentially cause destabilization in Kaliningrad potentially making it independent. With Russia moving away it's Military equipment from there, that move could serve as a check mate in way or could be used as a bargaining chip against the Ukraine war invasion
He can't rearm Kaliningrad. Not easily, not hard way. Russia will not get back to military power it had from the Soviet era.
exactly - the ever told story of NATO of being a threat to russia is just Putins narrative to justify his aggression against Ukraine .. and thus a blank lie!
@@CAxPH lolx. Kaliningrad's population is overwhelming Russian.
@@blackmantis3130 And? There is growing resentment towards Putin. Nothing lasts forever in geopolitics.
I don't think de-escalation is the goal, as just recently Russia declared its intentions to unilaterally change its maritime borders with Finland and Lithuania, and also removed some buoys from the Narva river demarcating its border with Estonia. Russia has ambitions in the Baltic region, but Ukraine just happens to be bleeding them dry at the moment. These recent actions are like a direct counterweight to moving equipment away from Kaliningrad, as if Russia wants to avoid sending a message of de-escalation at all costs.
If Russia can't even handle Ukraine, then NATO has nothing at all to worry about. I think that's the message that the past two years have sent to the world.
They're gonna run out of tanks and ifvs in 2-3 years i dont think they're ever gonna try to invade NATO.
Are you a mouth breather. Gl and take your next vaxx and boosters.
These ambitions is just diplomatic tool for them.
Given russian state tv states that russia in the borders of the zars is its natural borders....
1. Kaliningrad (Königsberg) is a lost cause and couldn't be defended anyway. 2. Russia needs the equipment elsewhere. 3. The Kremlin knows dang well that NATO has no aggressive intentions towards Russia.
NATO as a whole? Maybe. But the USA is a different story.
@@TheSasudomi yeah, yeah. It's clear you got your information from Russian textbooks.
Russia is economically too insignificant for the USA to care about. And now they've shown they've also shown their military is nothing compared to what it used to be. The USA didn't give too many fucks about Russia anyway but now they really don't. It's just Russia that keeps having USA wet dreams.
That attitude needs to change,Russia will not stop expansionist long game.
This is what we all said when we weren't sure if they would invade Ukraine. The western sleeping giant needs to wake up because ww3 already started
@@shakalpro lmao??? when has nato as an organization ever done anything aggressive? delusional
Belarus isn't a Russian ally. It IS Russia at this point. Less than 20% of the people speak Belarusian, and Lukashenko is more like a governor. Belarus is Russia.
There's a wonderful incident where Lukashenko is visiting Russia and greeting Putin, neither realised the press microphones were on. Putin says "thanks for coming". Lukashenko responds "did I have a choice?"
@@cthoadmin7458 😆😂😂😂🤣🤣🤣🤣
Yes. Belarus is pretty much just a province of russia. But not because a minority speak Belarusian. Remember that a very large portion of Ukrainians are Russian speakers too. Even the president of Ukraine had Russian as his mother tongue and Ukrainian as a second language. So likewise there is a far more to Belarusian identity than merely speaking Belarusian as your first language. It's political circumstances that has made Belarus a puppet of Russia, not linguistics.
@@stoferb876 It is not as if Lukashenko will surive Putin by more than a few days or weeks at the most. The people of Belarus really want to get rid of that puppet.
@@stoferb876 fair point. Ukraine does seem to be making more of an effort to advance Ukrainian, though. I guess just because they're allowed to.
36 to 60 hours: The same time frame predicted for the conquest of Ukraine. How did THAT work out?
In its current condition, Russia could not take over the three Baltic countries in 36 to 60 YEARS.
The narrator said that, in light of recent events, such estimates are unreliable, at best and were probably an overestimation of Russian capabilities.
We also need to be careful not to go too far in the other direction. Underestimation of Russia's capabilities is even more dangerous, especially as Russia appears to be finally learning some lessons from this war. Also, the Baltic states are much smaller than Ukraine, easier to isolate and all 3 have large Russian populations, similar to Eastern Ukraine. Having said all that, I don't think Russia intends to invade the Baltic states. I'm Putin would love to annex them but doing so is impossible, without provoking a potential war with NATO, which Russia couldn't win.
@@Codex7777 they have "learned" nothing since the first world war , and are the types of people that never will . It`s a lack of working together that`s got them there , it`s been built into them for decades. The ones at the top bark and everybody does there bidding even if they have a better idea lmao . DOOMED is what we call this in the WEST .
you do realise russia didnt send their whole force to defeat ukraine right? there are a lot of troops on standby for other reasons. but i still dont understand putin s plans in all of this, it just doesnt make sense
@@nxibba Putin dares NOT remove forces from the borders with China and India, so those forces are unavailable for the invasion.
36 to 60 hours to take the capital of the 3 Baltic states. That's basically the same things they said when Russia invaded Ukraine 2 years ago. Where are we right now?
And in Feb 2022 Russia had the surprise factor (Ukraine didn't believe that Russia would actually _invade)._
@@gintasvilkelis2544bruh NATO made Ukraine a fortress since 2014 and everybody knows Russia would invade. But the only one who's surprised is Russia who thought brotherly Ukraine would never stand against it and surrender.
@@X-jn87ybt To say that " NATO made Ukraine a fortress since 2014" is an exaggeration. And the statement "everybody knows Russia would invade" flies in the face of facts that were on the ground before the Feb 2022 invasion, since the Ukrainian government's refusal to believe that Russians would mount a full-scale invasion is well documented.
That said, it is also true that Russia was surprised by the magnitude of the Ukrainians' resistance.
You cannot compare the invasion of the second largest country in Europe with 40 million inhabitants, with small countries that barely reach 10, all three together
@@erosgritti5171 It's no more than 6 million, actually, but on the other hand, (1) they are NATO members, and (2) Russia will not have the "surprise factor" advantage.
Historically, Königsberg (its real name) is not a Russian territory. Putin keeps forgetting this in his historical claims.🤔
After a fully approved and accepted referendum, it was voted to be called Kralovec, an autonomous exclave province of Czechia.
@@axllii After genociding its population and forcing Russian culture on it with armed military standing outside the voting booths to make sure you vote to join Russia. How delusional can you be? Are you a bot comment or an actual npc sheeple?
Dictators don't operate on logic. Just look at all of the territory owned by other countries that CHINA is claiming, under the CCP.
@@axllii Really? When did this happen? ...and why has Czechia picked-up the reins of government for the area with yet another new name, Kralovec.
@@dereksollows9783 Of course not 😥🤡 it's a joke about the "fully approved and legal" referendum of Lugansk and Zaporitsia (sp?).
Sweden: Applies to NATO
Russia: let’s threaten Gotland that’ll show them we are peaceful.
Russians are very simple people. They are honest in their agression. I never personally met a clever Russian, honest to God I haven't. They all act this way on personal level too.
US nukes in Sweden is a threat to Russia. NATO is on Russia's borders. Who threatened who first? No wonder a Yasen class submarine just sailed into Cuba.
Russia can isolate the baltics
but the Baltics in cooperation with Finland can block Leningrad port, Russia's main port, and home to her Baltic sea Fleet.
There is no way that russia can isolate us :D!
Estonia and Finland can isolate russia, by moving our maritime border to international standard.
So Petersburg will be isolated via sanctions. So be careful what you wish for.
Kaliningrad is important because that is where the little man with the huge table docks his superyacht - the one they snuck out of the Hamburg shipyards without paying the bill.
Not that he will ever step foot on it again, but.
at least he can still eat hamburger sandwiches and theres nothing anyone can do about it. Yet another win for Muscovia!
Replacing the energy infrastructure, disconecting the baltics from russia and to the rest of europe, has happened far quicker than anyone thought possible. The transport infrastructure is coming along at pace as well. Making the baltics even less vulnerable, every day that passes.
There is even a independence movement among the Russian population in Kaliningrad.
That and the little man with the huge table has his hands full with his Special Military Operation, and keeping a lid on the Russian populace.
@@deanfirnatine7814 really? that's funny asf
@@flashybangyits fake lol. This movement existed only in 2000
@@deanfirnatine7814 If they separate now then Putin cannot get to them through Europe. If they wait until the war is over Russia may be able to defend Kaliningrad again one day.
Something makes me think if they tried this tomorrow, Poland would jump at the opportunity to transform Kaliningrad into a part of the sea floor
Russia wanting to unite Kaliningrad with the motherland is like Germany wanting to unite East Prussia to the Fatherland
@@poka26ev2 I wonder what happend the last time they tried that...
@@benwouda Russians took Berlin.
I think that Putin realizes that especially with Sweden and Finland joining NATO and Poland joining a land border with Kaliningrad, every military installation in that small enclave is already targeted by NATO forces and likely have precision weapons headed for those v targets within just a few hours of a Russian attack. With no easy way to move those Russian weapons to a more secure area. Finland and Sweden can bottle Russian naval forces up and while Russian weapons in Kaliningrad can hit many locations in Eastern Europe, even more NATO weapons can hit Kaliningrad. Plus the botched invasion of Ukraine has decimated Russian manpower and weapons systems and shown their vulnerability to fairly standard portable shoulder fired anti-tank and close in anti-aircraft weapons. In addition to a NATO air force and precision artillery, rockets, and missiles. And the NATO will to use them immediately in defense against Russian incursions into the Baltic states after seeing how Russia ignores national borders. Which means Russia would need to develop a completely new plan for an invasion or risk an even worse defeat than they encountered in the first month of the Ukrainian invasion.
It's almost like Putin is admitting NATO is not an aggressive pact.
Tell that to Serbia and Libya, see what they have to say about it.
@@iamoutofideas13 what parts were invaded by Nato ground forces, and what parts were annexed? Curious to know because I heard so much about Nato aggression, but no one seems to have details
@@iamoutofideas13 Sorry, when did NATO annex other countries?
@@iamoutofideas13 L’opération dirigée par l’OTAN en Libye en 2011 a été lancée en vertu de deux résolutions du Conseil de sécurité de l’ONU (résolutions 1970 et 1973) qui n’ont suscité, ni l’une ni l’autre, l’opposition de la Russie. Le Conseil autorisait la communauté internationale «à prendre toutes mesures nécessaires» pour «protéger les populations et les zones civiles menacées d’attaque» avec le soutien politique et militaire de pays de la région et de membres de la Ligue arabe.
Les Forces démocratiques syriennes du Conseil exécutif (Rojava), le gouvernement du Rojava, ont reçu le soutien militaire et logistique de certains pays de l'OTAN, en particulier des États-Unis. Depuis juillet 2015, elle a été attaquée par l'armée turque et l'Armée syrienne libre soutenue par la Turquie, conduisant à l'occupation turque du nord de la Syrie.
@@sjonnieplayfull5859
Are you denying NATO planes were bombing Gaddafi? LOL
Delusional at its finest, why do you not join the NSDAP you seem to have a lot in common.
Everyone talks about closing the Suwalki Gap, but then continues to totally ignore the fact that there's no infrastructure there at all.
The actual infrastructure is going right through Vilnius and Kaunas (look at the railroad) and that means that to close the gap a lot more effort is needed and the land between 54 and 55 degrees north has to be secured. This isn't some small operation.
There are some small roads around Suwalki, but it would just create a logistical nightmare to just try to close the gap.
An incursion taking Vilnius and Kaunas would definitely be an Article 5 event.
So I'd expect that Russia will just stick to making noise and test the water now and then with small action, invading the Baltic states could be way too expensive.
For Russia Kaliningrad is now just a liability, not an asset. It started to become a liability as soon as the Baltic states became independent. With Sweden and Finland in NATO it's even more so and it makes sense to remove most military assets from there and just use it as a forward base with limited capabilities and mostly used for intelligence purposes.
Russia "We fear war on our borders from a Nato attack, that's why we were forced to attack ukraine and withdraw our troops from the nato border!" Make it make sense ...
They have made an assessment that they can win in Ukraine or that the Ukrainian conflict takes priority so resources are allocated to that conflict. What's hard to understand?
@@elsol1176pro tip! Don't start a war that will weaken you if you fear your neighbours aggression
@@elsol1176 No, that's not why. Russia's actions reveal its actual thoughts: "We badly want to own Ukraine, and we are not really worried about getting attacked by NATO".
@@Hades_Space_Engineer Pro tip. That only matters of your neighbour does something.
@@gintasvilkelis2544 that's literally what I said in different words.
russia: NATO is an existential threat to us. *Purposefully weakens their NATO borders*
russia: We are just training we will not invade Ukraine. *Invades Ukraine*
How do you know russians are lying?
Their mouth is moving...
Doublethink at its finest.
@@MS-vv7wf you are correct
A riddle 💩
Wrapped in a mystery 🧻
Inside an enigma 💤🚽
russia: Everything is going to plan.
russia (2 years later): arrests 100 of their top generals and begs North Korea for military help.
@@angelarch5352 Well NATO cries to India for shells
LOL, as if Belarus wouldn't make themselves scarce as soon as they know the pointy shit will be flying their way.
They have Nukes too...
Belarus is Russian-occupied. Who do you think re-elected Lukashenko? It wasn't the Belarusians.
@@tulliusexmisc2191 nobody re-elect him, he lost elections and then just wiped all protestors and opposition with military and simply standing as president again
S-400 has been shown to be vulnerable to ATACMS and other NATO missiles. Poland's order of many, many HIMARS means Kaliningrad and the Suwalki gap are untenable in the event of conflict. All oil and other cargo shipping from russian Baltic ports would be halted.
NATO Has Nothing !!! Glory to Russia
Not only actual HIMARS but the Korean version of HIMARS as well
I mean yeah but russian air defense and jamming also didn't work well against HIMARS at the start. Of course later on in the war Russia adapted its air defense software and jamming and now they shoot down much more HIMARS missiles, no reason to assume the same for ATACMS. They're not a wonder weapon.
You will be a fool if you think Russia will be this soft if an invasion were to take place against its territory. Ukraine is a brother state and its people are Russian so the Kremlin has to abide by soft force and a minimal escalation to stop russians from going against putin. NATO is off limits and they can do whatever they want. Every base will be erased on day 1. Even the bases inside the US mainland. So don't compare the Ukraine war with a war against NATO.
S-400 is "state of the art" for russia? Oh dear.
They used to call Cyprus the unsinkable aircraft carrier. That description now applies to Gotland.
10:47
Narrator: from 10b to 15b!
Graphs on the screen: from 11.8b to 14.3b...
Yeah - that destroyed the credibility of this video: obviously scripted by amateurs.
Kaliningrad is lost territory it is insane expending significant resources trying to defend it.
I loved how the polish changed the city signs at the exclave to "Königsberg" 😂 when invasion began
Wait is this for real? I want to see it. lol
@@SlavicCoffee just google :D
@@marka7759 okay, what do I look up ?
@@SlavicCoffee for example "GDDKiA zmienia na tablicach drogowych nazwę Kaliningrad na Królewiec " in google graphics
@@TheKrissoX thanks! I will go look this up
little typo, it should say: Königsberg was isolated from the Fatherland
Of course it makes TOTAL sense that Russia is moving military equipment OUT of Kaliningrad. They're not at all worried that NATO will invade them but they are losing the war to Ukraine and are running out of weapons. They also moved weapons from the Finish border to Ukraine AFTER Finland joined NATO.
how much cia pay for that bull.... ukronazi have 750000 dead and 1,5 million wounded and move forward to the west. cocainsky clovn and westmongers are on the knes
Yes, Russia's actions reveal what Russia actually think (as opposed to what they say).
NATO is a No Action Talk Only alliance against a power like Russia and NATO won't dare to invade Russia. So Russia can be at peace.
It is the same in Norway. The border is almost empty on the Russian side.
Russia is losing the war in Ukraine hahaha
Including the comments of the listeners This is really good shared far and wide. Thank you
Very very informative. And comments include details that the video may have missed. Or perhaps make question the conclusions. Discussion is good. that's awesome thanks
Not conflict but war in Ukraine, dude
russia-Ukraine war
special military operation bro
I think that Russia has realized that there is no way to defend the Kaliningrad exclave, if there would be ever a hot war with NATO.
On the other hand NATO bends over backwards not to threaten Russia. Considering this it makes sense for Russia to pull urgently needed equipment from an area that is protected by NATO anyway.
Ships in those seas would be surrounded by NATO allied countries, as a result the sea port is strategically useless. Watch Russia destroy it and leave.
Thanks for your work ❤
Damn didnt know your production quality could get much better! Great job, love your videos!
NATO must be ready. Not a finger shall be laid on the Baltic countries.
They took our buoys in Narva river and then blamed us Estonians. It was literally caught on video and officers were watching. such a dumb move
i mean just look at last time they fought in navra(they got their ass handed to them)
Or else what😂😂😂
@@user-ek6lg3yb4b putin khuylo 🤡
stop glazing them
Baltic sea between Estonia and Finland is ca 80 km wide. I find funny that someone suggest Gotland or Aland being most important disrupting Kaliningrad resupply from St Petersburg because both Estonia and Finland have South-Korean self propelled howitzers K9 which will blockade any maritime movement from Russia not to mention costal defense missiles and sea mines. Gotland is absolutely important for supplying Baltics and air defense but first line of blockade is close to St Petersburg.
Idea isn't new because already in Russian Empire there were coastal artillery to protect St Petersburg.
The NATO members aren't really required to spend at least 2 percent of GDP on defense. It is just a suggestion, or guideline. It is not as if you haven't paid your insurance invoice, if something bad happens. You are still guaranteed protection from the other NATO members. However, most NATO members in the East of Europe exceed 2 percent, so not really an issue there.
"It is just a suggestion"
It's not a mere suggestion. After the 2014 Wales Summit, NATO countries formally *committed* to spending at least 2% of GDP on their militaries. Before that, it had been an informal guideline.
Its a commitment that all countries agree to. So they are required. If you agree to something with your international partners and you dont follow through you are breaking the agreement and bringing down the allaince.
@@seneca983 The individual member states committed to it because it was in their interest to do so which reinforces the point that it's not a requirement of membership. If it had been certain member states wouldn't have not been adhering to this requirement would they? This point is something US politicians on the right who aren't very interested in defending democracy trott out to bolster their nationalistic stances. I even believed this form until I watched a video on here, I forget which channel, it may have been Perun, not long ago that just blows this much repeated statistic out of the water, mainly because it relies on the nuance of what value of GDP you take and from when. TLDF - basically it's not true for nearly every NATO member.
@@mattpotter8725 "it's not a requirement of membership"
It's not a requirement for membership but it's more than just an informal guideline (since 2014). It's a formal commitment (even if there's no punishment for breaking it).
@@seneca983 A formal commitment with no punishment for not committing is an oxymoron. In effect it means it's an expectation but not worth the paper it's written on or with even discussing.
The reason the US brings this up is because it spends a hell of a lot on its military to protect its position as the world's economic powerhouse and because it has a lot of jobs and money tied up in politics that requires it to do so.
If the US stops spending so much on its military to project power around the world then China will step in to fill the void, as it already is in some places in the world, like Africa and even parts of Eastern Europe. We've been here before when the US took a step back and became more isolationist and in the end it had to step in because otherwise it would have started to affect its economic position in the world.
As I also said this whole argument that some members of NATO are massively not paying their way had been debunked. Yes, some nations spend more than others, but not by a huge amount, and in the cases where this is the case there are valid reasons for it.
Russia also said it had "no intention of invading ukraine"..... What is a Russian "promise" worth?
A russian promise is merely a tell.
"what is a Russian" promise" worth" = 😂😂😂
stop saying "NATO EXPANDED" - NATO ADDED A NEW MEMBER WHO WILLINGLY WENT THROUGH THE PROCESS AND JOINED.
NATO DOES NOT "EXPAND" as if it as taking territory. It *ADDS MEMBERS*
What the hack dude, expand do not mean you are forcefully adding territory or taking territory as you say, it simply mean nato is getting bigger, which is true.
can russia join?
@@Jvanschalkwyk1they were asked in the past to join. Then they showed their true colours.
@@Ikbeneengeittalking about Nato
@@Jvanschalkwyk1 To join NATO the asking country has to cover some requirement. Russia, right now (and already for a while), is walking away from such goals.
"Russia could isolate the baltics"
Sweden and Finland: 🌚
Thank you for your hard work to gives us new ideas and news
The Russians know Kaliningrad isn't under threat of invasion.
The Russians know that Ukrainians are blowing up Russian S-400 missile defence systems fairly often and these are much more complicated to build as well as much more expensive to replace than regular military equipment. They are vehicular supercomputers with a lot of electronics and radar systems, they cannot be donated by North Korea and actually require some Western components which at best would now have to be bought 3rd or 4th hand off the black market in Africa or Asia... Turns out Russia relied on Europe much more than Europe relied on Russia, I don't know how Putin's ego could be so big as to miss that despite what he tells his public about how great Muscovia is
One thing they should consider, is controlling entry into the Baltic Sea like Turkey does. No warships can enter the Baltic, unless it has a NATO flag!
NATO tried that and lost.
Fun fact: the high-raise in the background just above the channel 13:49 is the largest building in Kaliningrad Region and it was meant for the city administration. It's been siting abandoned for over 30 years cos the Russian government can't find money to complete it.This alone speaks volumes about the state of affairs in the country that is trying to take on the entirety of Western Europe and North America. Putin is just stark mad.
Yeah they also demolished ruins of Konigsberg castle to build this abomination, USSR was great
Never looked mad to any of us in the global South, certainly not as crazy as some US presses or as lying, conniving and delusional as British PMs. There is no leader as cogent, well-read in law and history, and logical in his or her assessment of what needs to be done for his/her own country and world peace.
that thing? lol my city has buildings for higher education bigger than that, and we are not exactly a nation known for its skyscrapers....
That building doesn't exists anymore.
Did anyone in comments section watch the whole video? He literally said that the joining of sweden and finland effectively nullified Russia's grip on the baltics 😂😂😂
I did. 1.5 speed helps.
Eu 2% spending in military would be 500 billion €
That’s 1 third Russian entire gdp 😱
Dthe usa spend more money than the next 12 coutries altogether. russias exoense is a joke. he relies on mas over quality. hoe else can you call 500.000 lossxy of personal? it is by far not the 3-day-war putin exoected. this military adventure will bleed out russia and throw it back 50 years, if not more, putin is the worst thing that ever could happen to that poor country
They need to spend 3 percent to make up for lost time if they expect American help
Ti pa v prvo linijo, da bo za Kosovce več prostora.
@@danieljoseph6686 If the US can't honor their obligations under the NATO treaty, maybe they should simply leave NATO. There's no mention of spending targets in the treaty.
How did Spetsnaz forces perform at Hostomel Airport in 2022?? How many air defence do the countries adjacent to Kaliningrad have? Attacking the Suwalkigap is the dumbest thing the Evil Empire can do. This would mean direct conflict with NATO, with a strangling economic blockade in response.
"Putin swears he won't invade Poland or Latvia"
Yeah right, and what was Putler saying days before invading Ukraine?
Putin is a wanker, and he knows it.
Fun fact: The USA hasn't officially declared war anywhere since 1941.
@@conveyor2 What does that have to do with my comment. You bots and shills have to start doing a better job.
..."won't invade Poland or Latvia." No mention of excluding Lithuania.
Russia will have to walk, as they have no armor or BMPs left.
Good stuff. Very professional and polite style of narration. 👍
Kind of strange you would put part of Ukraine marked as Russia
Ask Zelinsky to liberate that occupied land then.
They are marked in lighter color to mark occupied territories.
@@pidu4588*liberated
if you think OBF is some sort of Russian Stooge you haven't watched his content
@@pidu4588You’re a Kremlin bot 🤖🤖🤖🤖
Ignorant American here, but has NATO considered consulting with the Hearts of Iron 4 playerbase on strategy?
Considering that the Russian military decides how to proceed using the random numbers generator app, your suggestion actually sounds brilliant.
EXACTLY, THIS GUY GETS IT.
Curious if the decision to draw but not label Slovenia and Bosnia and Herzegovina was deliberate or due to the size of the names relative to the space on the map @ 5:24? Montenegro is labeled fully with a territory smaller in scale. It could have been possible to use either their 2 letter code (SI, BA) or their 3 letter code (SVN, BIH).
There's a theory that the threat to the Suwalki Gap is much less now that the Baltic Sea has become a NATO lake. Eight navies and air forces control the Baltic Sea now and, together, they'd be able to eradicate the Russian Baltic Fleet. That would open up the possibility of supplying the Baltics by sea. Although that's not as desirable as doing it via the Suwalki Gap, it does take away some of Russia's advantage if Putin did invade the gap. As said, Russia would have immense trouble supplying Kaliningrad via the Suwalki Gap because it would plunge into general warfare, and they've have zero chance of supplying Kaliningrad by sea. It wouldn't be too long before Kaliningrad would collapse and fall to anti-Putin separatists.
Good video.
Is Ruzzia running low on military supplies in Ukraine? That *might* explain matters.
The war is depleting tanks faster than they can be made, another round of mobilisation may be on the way. Crime suspects can now join the army to avoid trial. Everything is going to plan tho😂
@@WeejimmySnazberry Everything you said literally only applies to Ukraine at the moment lmao
@@easy94883 No it doesn't, Ukraine is allowing convicts to fight but with a sentence reduction. Russia in the other hand is in trouble, if you follow joe blogs for some insight into what's going on behind the curtains, you will understand.
It's important in non-war time. It's a supply port. But once a war breaks out, it just becomes a target that is nearly impossible to defend. So they have have a token defense but it's basically expected to fall very easily no matter how many assets are placed there. It's just too small.
This incisive analysis has gained a new subscriber.
there is alot of copium here. during the same time US has also been removing it SAM in west pacific, does that mean US is also failing? the truth is these system are not really effective against a saturation attack. and it would be wisely to group them up so they can have a chance to defeat an attack than to spread them out. the consolidation of SAM by both Russia and US is to be expected if they see the risk of a real war increasing. their offensive asset would be fire on day 1 anyway, there is no point to defend an emptied position.
Finland joining Nato made the gap a side note. But so has Poland’s defence spending. Any attempt to strike west from Belarus would be met with a wall of Polish troops and crippling strikes from Finland.
St. Petersburg is right on the border of Finland basically. One out of Russia's only 2 good cities would instantly be destroyed in a larger war. Russia is strategically and geographically very weak country. They can only invade small countries but talk like a superpower
getting modern antiship missiles from all directions in the gulf of finland adds a challenge to russian ships.
Not just Poland. Also Germany and France would stand there not to mention the US army.
@@UhtredOfBamburgh The army that once defeated Nazi Germany should not be underestimated
@@chinababysatn12 You mean Canada?
Why did you split Cyprus in half when colouring in the European Political Community map at 12:27
Putin the day before the invasion: We are not going to invade anyone!
Puting in 2024: We have no plans to attack any other countries!
Everyone with a braincell: Yeah, SURE!
Koenigsberg will be a welcome member into EU, once they are free.
No way. Land full of rats 🐀 affecting eu decisions
Kaliningrad Oblast is half of East Prussia, the city is Königsberg. Russia is not the motherland.
And maybe Russia does not think that NATO will actively attack them on its territory.
That 36-60 hours takeover was probably calculated before 2022. Now it would be 36-60 years.
Why do we not see the blocking of the Bakbyn Line mentioned as a way to a counter a Suwalki Gap threat?
nice vid :)
I forgot to mention:
Putler, should receive "The NATO Salesman of the Century Price":
He have sincerely earned it, by turning both, since looong time neutral countries, to NATO members.
In just a couple of years.
Applause.
from a Finn in Diaspora
putin needs to be honoured as you said - top Recruiter for NATO.
And do it officially, with ceremony and all 😁
Finnland never was a neutral country. Finnland tried to genocide Russians, together with Germany and most of the Europe.
@@oneshothunter9877 Ceremony is a prison cell in Hauge.
One day soon I will make the long journey to the Land of the Winter Warriors! Keep the saunas hot for me! :)
nice
i saw your comment on a video from 7 years ago
What video was it
@@t.n.h.ptheneohumanpatterna8334 a video combining Kevin MacLeod songs and the video is just un flag waving
Correction, the 2% GDP military spending is NOT a requirement, but a guideline/recommendation
Åland is self governing and is demilitarized
I guess, after Russia lost the ukrainian war Kaliningrad should become a second Lichtenstein or the choice to witch EU member state they want to attach.
The native Prussians are long gone. Only the orcs remain and we do not want them into the EU
What makes you think Russia will lose that conflict?
@@nikitadovidchenko6336 it´s going to become a second 1989 for Russia... as Biden has said. Boiling the Frog (economically).
I don´t like this approach, because it costs much more casulties on both sides... but that´s what will happen and is happening now.
@@nikitadovidchenko6336 russia is tired, Ukraine is tired. But in the end Ukraine has more motivation to fight for its freedom against the agressor and will not give up.
@@hasdagger1916 i'm not sure about Russia being tired and not sure about Ukraine motivation atm.
Correction: Nato members are not required to hit the 2% military spending threshhold. It is only encouraged and not enforced if not met
and all the frontline countries have long gone above that
If the small countries aren’t meeting the guideline, it’s not that big of a deal. A country like North Macedonia could spend 20% of its GDP on defense and still be little more than a speed bump to a Russian invasion. It’s more of a concern if Turkey, Germany, Italy, France or the U.K. isn’t meeting the spending guideline since they will be doing the heavy lifting along with the U.S. Even if Turkey wasn’t meeting the guideline, it’s still necessary to defend them to protect Greece, control access to the Black Sea and control Russian or Iranian expansion into Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia.
after trump is elected it will be enforced.
Prior to the production of that (still very interesting) video, Germany has started to lockate a tank brigade up next in Lithuia. NATO won‘t leave the Baltic Staates to Russia. No way.
Great. Are you watching on sling TV?
It makes actually perfect sense why Russia cares less about the defense of Kaliningrad.
It's because Putin knows that NATO will never invade it anyways, because NATO never attacked and will never attack any Russian territories.
And with all forces being pinned in Ukraine, Putin also knows that any attempt at closing the Suwalki gap is basically postponed to whenever.
Kaliningrad is NOT West Berlin, nobody escapes to Kaliningrad and the current residents are not as politically blind and indifferent as the rest of the empire. I suspect the Kremlin fears an Afghanistan-like collapse in the enclave and doesn't want to lose the existing arms and resources to the west. By de-militarizing the enclave, Kaliningrad becomes a benign extension of Moscow and less a threat to NATO. As the Baltic Sea has become a de-facto NATO lake, The Gulf of Finland becomes a closed cul-de-sac, Saint Petersburg's Neva River backwaters. The fate of Saint Petersburg will become the same as Rostov-on-Don, resting in the Sea of Azov shallows, cut-off from extensive world commerce. What comes next? Kaliningrad is pruned and withers on the vine, Sevastopol falls to Ukraine and becomes NATO's Black Fleet headquarters, and Murmansk-on-the-Arctic lies ice bound half of the year - fed by a single rail line from Mother Russia. And then there is Belarus, the once potential extension of Kremlin lands, now an unproductive island cut-off on the west by NATO, on the south by Ukraine, and wholly dependent on a collapsing Russia on the east. When this plays out, a pro-Moscow Belarus is next to fall.
Well said
Plus the people of Belarus are chaffing under Lusenko and would immediately rise up against him and Putin to boot.
Keep on dreaming ... btw, Murmansk is an ice-free port.
@@user-ro2ws2me1k Where did you learn your geography? Murmansk is located 12 km from the Arctic Ocean on a narrow fjord. It is the most ice-impacted port in Russia.
What's this? Logic and reason applied to geopolitics???
The Åland archipelago has been demilitarized since the treaty of Paris 1856, so it is not, as claimed in the video, a readily usable strategic military asset. The islanders, who speak swedish but are finnish citizens, are even extempt from military service.
Very detailed video report.
The nature of the Drone War in Ukraine has demonstrated that the type of military structure in Kaliningrad is out of date, and more liability than asset. Most of the above ground facility could be destroyed in a matter of hours by custom designed drones. Coupled with the strategic changes to Russian access to the Baltic Sea Kaliningrad is no longer a conventional strategic asset for Russia. It’s important for the west to investigate how Russia can convert Kaliningrad into an “Unconventional “Strategic asset. The recent disruption to GPS in Poland might be a clue. There is certainly considerable underground Russian infrastructure in Kaliningrad which can be redeployed for political disruption, spying, electronic interference, etc.
The West should play Putin’s game and headlong work on pulling Belarus away from Putin.
Hungary, Slovakia, turkey and counting
They also told us Kiev would fall in two days. I’m really not worried.
That was a scenario where no other side would intervene
@@bexultanassanov1930 No other side intervened. The Ukrainians clobbered the Russian Army by themselves.
@@adrien5834 then where did Ukrainians get javelins tanks antiair systems and where is US sending their billions to?
It's a question I never thought to ask
That 2015 report is useless now that Sweden and Finland are a part of NATO.
Putin hasn't got a clue what he is doing strategically - its all tactical scrambles in a panic to maintain some coverage over Ukraine - especially with F-16's coming. He knows NATO won't actually attack him in Kaliningrad - so there is limited downside directly to moving equipment. But if he moves too much equipment & personnel out its possible the locals may eventually rise up for independence. They see advanced countries all around them with much higher standards of living and know they could rapidly follow the same development as the ex Soviet Baltic states if unshackled from Russian control. That's probably his biggest risk of demilitarizing, but it couldn't happen overnight.
Not likely. Kaliningrad is made up from migrants and a lot of them are ex-military or families of those that are in the military - they tend to be loyal - it is the most militarized region in Russia. There is a small minority of people in Kaliningrad that supports independence (mostly young adults), but we must remember that the population of Kaliningrad consists of ethnic Russians and migrants from other regions and countries, such as Uzbekistan. Its not Chechnia or Tatarstan where there is a distinct ethnic majority that would benefit from independence, Kaliningrad and people living there do not have any distinct identity other than being Russian citizens.
@@liquidgoose1518 Its a challenge to understand. But there are polls suggesting >50% support for Independence (inherently difficult to poll and understand results in Russian controlled territories). As an exclave surrounded by EU countries the citizens still have better access to western media, had easy travel allowing a direct comparison of standards of living. Kaliningrad residents have anyway long felt they get the short end of the stick wrt economic support even within Russia. These things gradually take a toll on ones belief in the 'system'. If the military is then hollowed out by drains to Ukraine (equipment & personnel) then the balance shifts further (less direct investment, fewer short term Russians on military assignments). Quite a lot of the early migrants to Kaliningrad were actually Ukrainian. So losing people to a war in Ukraine doubly brings the raw costs of supporting the 'system' home. Again it doesn't happen overnight, but there is a shift underway, and Kaliningrad is now more isolated than ever before.
I agree. Putin is strategically very poor. His actions have massively strengthened NATO.
Let's call what it is: Königsberg. Not Kalingrad.
Official maps and Germans who ran away laughing at you be like:
@@Masquerade456 the speed russians are able to destroy beautiful regions (Finnish Karjala) and cities (Königsberg, baltic capitals like Riga) with total neglect is as fast as it is saddening.
A lot of the Russians that live there call it Königsberg and want independence
About Åland:
1. By the Åland convention of 1856 Russia agreed not to militarise the Åland Islands, which was later confirmed by the Treaty of Paris.
2. The Åland convention of 1921 was signed on 20 October 1921 by Sweden, Finland, Germany, United Kingdom, France, Italy, Denmark, Poland, Estonia, and Latvia.
So if Ålanders and Finland agree to militarize Åland, Russia has no say in the matter.
0:43 "They pull their forces out of Kaliningrad THAT DOESN"T MAKE ANY SENSE" meanwhile on screen in intelligence report "to backfill losses on Ukrainian front". Powerful analyses! Thank you!
Królewiec is as Russian as Transnistria, Osetia and Abhazia.
5:09 ‘RuSSia’s State of the art Air defense system’: yeah, right, that’s why they’ve blown to smithereens on numerous occasions by Western Storm Shadow, Scalp, Himars missiles and so on…
It is also possible that they don't see any value of forward positioning of conventional weapons systems in light of full scale thermonuclear war. There are no non-nuclear scenarios of direct war between NATO and Russia.
For all those who may not know, I want you to pause at exactly 11:27 and look over the Pentagon. All of those white dots in the fields behind the Pentagon are Graves inside Arlington National Cemetery. The video doesn't show the whole cemetery, but each one of those white dots is a service members grave.
I encourage you to visit our nation's capital and take a tour of Arlington National Cemetery. It might understand the magnitude of the cost of freedom and the price many Americans are willing to pay to maintain it.
Very interesting! It is especially interesting to see how badly Putin misjudged NATO and neighboring countries' responses the invasion of Ukraine. The fact that Putin could be thinking if he made Kaliningrad less of a threat countries in the Baltic would stop viewing him as a threat. 😅
NATO's appeasement policy towards Russia took its toll.
But Królewiec is Czech
The watch goes forward making "tic-tac" while russian army goes backwards and called that tac-tics".
Plus there is the fact that a census/poll was taken that found that a large portion of the population of Kaliningrad would like to be free of Russia and be much more associated with western Europe. That's got to figure into it at least a little bit.
The day after, if Russia had attacked NATO, NATO tanks would have entered Königsberg like home, 80 km away, the furthest point from the border. Königsberg, now Russia's weakness, not NATO, just look at the map.
Russia is not Iraq bro maybe it's the other way around
@@X-jn87ybt this is eazy way for military eazy way is the best .
kaliningrad dreamin about nato invasion and fleing out of russia reign
While I don't have much of an issue with the 2015 study since the video says to take it with a grain of salt immediately after, the section about NATO's undesired outcomes seems strange to me. How would the invasion of the Baltic contradict Article 5, if Russia launched a full-scale invasion of NATO nations? It wouln't be a contradiction because, should Russia ever invade the Baltic nations, it would likely prompt a unilateral response from Europe and North America. Which brings me onto the third outcome: wouldn't this already be a continental war?
Simplest explanation is the best. That equipment is needed in Ukraine. Russia talks a lot, but doesn't really believe NATO is a threat to Russia. A threat to their ambitions, yes, but not for a direct attack.
Correction, Russia had to leave Kaliningrad in 90s, because after the world War 2 Soviet union could only administrate KONINGSBERG/ Kaliningrad only for 50 years. If Germany wanted, they could raise that issue.
Untrue. The territory has long been a full part of Russia; the Germans all expelled and replaced with Russians. Where's the proof of this 50 year limit? Germany however has officially declared zero interest in the territory. "The Kaliningrad region’s status as part of the Soviet Union was reaffirmed by the 1975 Helsinki Final Act, and Germany renounced its claim to the region in a 1990 treaty."
@@conveyor2 Well, since Russia has broken the 1975 Helsinki Final Act with principles such as the inviolability of frontiers and the territorial integrity of states, Germany could lay claim to the Kaliningrad region if they wanted.
@@hb9145 I mean sure they could but realistically no one in Europe wants Kaliningrad. Yeah it once was diverse region with big cultural significance to Germany and Poland and on paper both could claim it but today its just your average backwater soviet town filled with Russians so it would just be a big liability. I think if Russia was to fall they would probably create a new independent state as there already are some separatist movements within Kaliningrad which only grow larger due to distance to the mainland and exploitative policies of Kremlin.
I wonder why Russia shouldn't simply demand reoccupation of East Germany with that same tone.