They always do. They're have been studies showing why. It makes them feel part of the "in crowd," the "winners," even though they're getting bent over. Humans are dumb animals ruled by ego. Very easy to manipulate. Just tell them you love them and work for them, "I love the uneducated." They'll fall for it because they don't know how to research facts. They're uneducated.
It's interesting you say the "billionaires" when there are far more billionaires donating to the Demoncrat party. Get educated. Do your own research. The information is there if you're not lazy and complacent. Try to prove me wrong, hell, why not prove the media and yourself right and accept the truth.
@@chrisservais4230 LMAOOOOOOO .... you are the one who is clueless about business and bankruptcy regarding Chump. Chump has never been a successful businessman, but rather a con man and a cheat. Almost all of Chump's businesses are losing money and most have failed. The only "successes" that Chump has ever had were: 1) the 4-500 million he inherited from his father. Of which he cheated ad stole plenty of that from his siblings. Mary Trump is suing him over that ow. 2) The Apprentice TV show which was estimated to make him about 400 million over about 10 years. The real story being that Chump was so stupid and such a poor businessman that he turned it down numerous times, saying it would never succeed. Mark Burnett had to beg Chump to do the show and Chump finally relented. 3) The Chump Scam Fund ... which milked hundreds of millions of dollars from his MAGA morons. Which Chump then spent on himself, his wife, his legal fees, etc. 4) The scam DJT media stock . which every single credible market analyst has evaluated as totally worthless...... losing hundreds of millions already. Yet it is obvious that Russian ad Saudi money is propping it up to the tune of many billions of essentially illegal influence money. And let us not forget the mega millions that Chump has cheated on his tax returns via bogus shell companies.
YES. People still do not understand inflation is a lagging indicator, rears it's ugly head 12-18 months later and is always related to monetary policy. Print trillions, hold rates near zero (Trump policies)....INFLATION.
Because of all the illegal immigrants (housing and rents) and shut down of the Keystone pipeline under Biden is why inflation took off. Henke can say all he wants oil is the key to inflation it's in everything including shipping costs.
Crash will be the worst in American history under Trump policies. I’m a fortune teller and I’d bet my life savings that our economy will suffer Bigly as Trump would say.
boom bust cycle is a natural as sunrise or sunset ; its not IF but WHEN, and the only thing we can control is the severity. a policy of fiscal restraint and ability to be able to lower interest rates and implement stimulus helps reduce the effects, irrational behavior, drastic spendings, trade wars, cheap money, combined with deregulation of the banking industry can lead to server economic recessions and prolong them.
Prof.Hanke is right. In Japan we are going through the painful journey exactly as the Professor explains in plain English. The situation is much,much worse. Sad we don't have a Prof.Hanke hiere.
Really??? Explain that. Japan has their major market crash when... about 40 years ago now. And the Bank of Japan has been printing Yen like crazy for this 40 years now and the Japanese national debt is way over 200% of GDP now .... and yet supposedly Japan has had a deflation problem not an inflation problem. That is totally contrary to what Professor states about inflation and money supply.
@coreyham3753 Japan will be the canary in the coal mine. It's a MMTers wet dream, infinite debt, almost zero interest...it's main problem is that it has to import its energy.
@@coreyham3753wasn’t all that japanese money just transferred to the US, to finance the US debt?? So didn’t have any effect on the japanese economy other than a steady flow of money and demand from the US.
@@prebenpetersen5982 I honestly do not follow Japan very much, but my recollection is that Japan had a massive stock market and asset crash of about 75-80% back in the 1980's I think it was. And I think that Japan still to this day has not recovered to stock market or asset price levels of then. So that is now over 30 years. The reason why Japan is able to finance US debt is because they have huge trade surpluses with the US, and have had for decades. AS such they only have 2 main choices ... holding US dollars at zero interest or buying US bonds and earning some interest. They choose the latter. At one point the Japanese tried to use their excess US dollars to buy US assets and they probably still do some of that. However, Japan has printed Yen like crazy for the last 3 decades and now has a national debt well in excess of 200% of GDP. Much higher than the USA. Such Yen printing was spent on government programs, infrastructure, etc. But Japan had a persistent deflation problem, not an inflation problem. Which calls into question this Professors theory that money printing by the Fed is always the root cause of inflation.
Honestly, this concerns me and has left me uneasy. Especially this potential depression, no more a recession. I'm now thinking of ways to protect my portf0lio worth of $800k from this bloodbath.
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Thanks for sharing. I curiously searched for her full name and her website popped up after scrolling a bit. I looked through her credentials and did my due diligence before contacting her.
They just follow the fed's injections that's all they are doing. Not their faults. Tell the fed to stop injecting liquidity and they won't invest in the markets. It's called don't fight the fed.
The person, who’s not able to understand what’s going on between Ukraine and russia and why the USA gives Ukraine weapons, and why it’s not the same as the North Korean troops in Ukraine, is not worth to listen to.
I really wanted to watch this. I’m a registered Independent. I would never trust anyone who lies or is too stupid to know what an election landslide is, over 57% of the vote. The house is so far only a six seat majority, and the senate still cannot overcome a filibuster. Are you both bad at math? And you want us to trust you with our money. 😂
In the US ,there will never be a real landslide. Even Trump was almost shot, it didn't move 5% of the votes, the two impeachment, 94 fancy charges didn't even move 5%. In a normal country, this should move 40% or more of the votes. Half of Americans want their country fail.
Think of landslide is control of all legislative bodies, clear win in presidential election and control of supreme court. I would call that landslide victory.
Trump for sure set acceptable questions in the podcasts.. he was almost asked no challenging questions - it was marketing for him. no accountability or journalistic standard. just pump. like a meme coin.
Kamala was offered to go on Joe Rogan's show... 🙅♀️ That was the election right there if it wasn't already blown. IMHO, Democrats made a mistake going with Biden in 2020. Lot's of good candidates were in the mix. Too many, really.
how do you get inflation in shrinking economic growth and high debt? I get why we had stagflation in the 70's we were a manufacturing economy with production, now we are a services economy with low production and high debt, which is deflationary. Especially when the liquidity gets all sucked up to pay for debt. People won't be spending, they will be forced to stop spending to pay off debt. Supply will increase lowering prices. Printing to hold up markets is unproductive and there for doesn't create inflation. Hence 2009-2020 very low inflation.
Here's what really happened. For 20 years the USA has been importing DEFLATION from China as they sold us cheap products and bought our bonds so that our dollar would not drop in value. The Chinese essentially pulled inflation from the USA and they had pretty high domestic inflation as a result. Well now that Trump got us started de-coupling from China, the real inflation of the USA is showing, not only that, we have 20 years of inflation to catch up with us, all at once, thank you Donald, you really did a number on the American economy. The more you decouple China from the USA, the higher the inflation will go, the bigger the little guy in the USA gets hurt, and they are the fools that just re elected you ...
Recession or not, when everything is hitting all-time highs, it’s a good time to trim some positions and build up cash reserves. I’m thinking of diversifying my $200K portfolio to hedge against potential downturns, but I’m unsure of the best strategy to pursue.
Reduce risk in your portfolios, strengthen your core holdings, and take some profits while adjusting your allocations. I’d recommend considering a managed portfolio, but keep in mind that they don't always perform well. It’s better to consult with a trusted fiduciary for guidance-that’s what has worked for my spouse and me. We've achieved over 80% capital growth, excluding dividends.
just sell and sit on cash. the opportunity to catch the next bottom is coming afterwards. But right now is not the time to sell. Wait till after the Orange Disaster 2.0 is sworn in.
Steve should stick to economics. His geopolitical views and understanding of current situation in Ukraine or Taiwan is on the level of my dog. This was a disporting ending. I lost confidence in all he said before, and he has been wrong on the economy for a long time now.🤦♀🤦♂
@@JS-ih4qi Trump is in a position to be crowned the greatest president of all time. The million dollar question is....Will he fumble the bag or seize the moment?
How he can call himself an economist while treating the velocity of money and labor productivity as constants (and money supply being the only variable), I find both vexing and perplexing. I toss him in the same dustbin as Eugene F. Fama with his "Efficient Market Theory".
He might be right about the outcomes, but his reasoning is deeply flawed. He keeps bringing up money supply - fair enough - but then claims it has nothing to do with the interest rate. The two concepts are inextricably linked: central banks influence money supply by adjusting interest rates, mostly through open market operations or bond purchases (quantitative easing). How can he call himself an economist while ignoring such a fundamental relationship. Also it was money supply against the backdrop of disrupted supply chains during covid, which created an undersupply of goods - too much demand in a very short time span. Will stop here because there's just too much to contest about the neolib. He's part of the school that got us here. Seeds were planted decades ago since Regan!
I am 75. I have heard analysts blame Fed chairs for economies since I was about 17 or 18. The Dow hit 1000 when I was in college. I guess things went OK.
The stock market is not the economy. Seem to remember that something like 80% of the stock market is owed by the top 10%. Yes, the top 1-2% has benefited greatly since the 1960-70's, but what about the rest of the population? Wealth inequality today is much greater than it has been at any time since the 1980's.
When you were 17, a family could live well off the average man’s income . That is not the case anymore. The price of the Dow is not a proper measure of the real economy.
The common man who received government cash injections spent it and kept the economy from crashing. The rich man saw his portfolio grow... While certainly a shift in wealth the other option would have been worse by two fold. A large correction is inevitable.
does the professor have any data to support his intuition? the St Louis Fed data says the opposite - 2018 t0 2023 the bottom quintile had income growth higher than middle which in turn was higher than top quintile.
Yeah, I think people are missing that this was a vote against Biden and not so much on Trump. And he literally ran away from Project 2025. So when we are told he has a mandate I always say for what? He ran on deportation, no OT tax, and tariffs. So he definitely has a mandate for that…but that’s it. He’s going to do what Oboma did and give us laws that we didn’t ask for like Oboma care. Helping a small segment of society.
People that say that are just Trump haters. Inflation only follows M2. Why so many brainwashed leftists commenting here? At least there will be exit liquidity for me.
This was interesting till Steve started complaining about wester support of Ukraine and America wanted war with China. At that point I realized I can't liste to what he has to say.
Everytime I see Hanke, I click the dislike and turn off. The guy is a turnip. He's wrong on economics, on money supply, on geopolitics, on everything. He has some gall to be so wrong for so many years and still come on the internet prognosticating. Don't give the windbag anymore airtime.
@MidnightSouls hes called multiple things right. It's hard to have a recession with 2 trillion deficits. Give me 2 trillion and I'll show you a good time. Govt spending is floating the economy right now.
Trump election, limited Biden govt support, Limited support. Chinese support of Russia the outcome of war is as clear as day. At this point of time no one is doubting the supply side of story with inflations. Check any developed country where central banks printed money, inflation went crazy. I would love to hear your data point.
The recession has already begun. Im a Cnc Machinist and a big customer of ours is ASML. They are starting to cut our overtime for the first time in 20 years.
Maybe people should campaign for 9 years. Even though we were sick of the years of whining and victimhood he still won. He will keep campaigning and blaming from day 1.
I do not know what is happening. A question in my mind is this: is there someone or some group that wants me doing the what people consider to be the simplest tasks to earn money so that I feel bored, miserable and like failure the rest of my life?
No recession next year. American business is too strong for a recession of any merit. We already had one recently. S&P 500 going up as always. Invest long on a pullback.
I've heard recession every single year for the last 3 years, I don't buy it. They are judging the economy on old metrics. My thesis is "the dollar should only be looked at as the fiat currency you use when you need to make a purchase. Crypto,gold,silver, equities, anything but the dollar should be held as savings. Young people get this, every kid has an app on their phone buying this stuff, sure you can cry wolf every year and one year you'll be right, I don't care, its just noise." People should be more worried about how the magnetic pole is moving 40 miles a year and accelerating. By 2040 your compass will be pointing east, that's a real problem.
It's hilarious for him to say that money supply was the only issue, it shows that he needs to get out of his office and actually run a business. I was dealing with running a manufacturing business and building real estate. My demand for manufacturing did not go up but my ability to produce went to zero. I could not get many of the small electronic components I need to do my job for years. When the supply of those components suddenly began to flow again, then you saw everyone grab every component they could. Now many of the companies I purchase from have excess inventory. Same for my real estate construction. We weren't building more but simply could not get the materials we needed in a reasonable time and price.
8:00 funny how people revolted against the billionaires by voting on a guy that wants more tax cuts for the billionaires🤣 Yeah we will see how the distribution will be under Trump, seems to be even more to the billionaires and less to the common man(import tax and inflation)
The political analysis is spot on. If you make 50 000 a year you have to work for 1 million 20 years, for 1 billion 20 000 years and for 100 billion 2 000 000 years. You are happy and make 100 000 a year? Then it is only 1 million years to make the 100 billion, congratulation. Oh and do not spend anything.
A recession has been predicted for several years. It hasn't happened because they have not reduced the money supply. They could probably reduce the money supply without causing a recession. It would mainly cause deflation.
Correct...he has been calling for recession for a while now...its unfortunate as the recession is postponed further and further....the worst it will be once it arrives.
@ 🤣🤣🤣 it’s not coming anytime soon … I mean no recession will happen in 10 years I promise you… because governments will print money and all these dumb idiots like this economy professor he can hide somewhere with he’s predictions
The money supply is NOT contracting anymore. It's been growing since the end of 2023,, which is when the markets started moving up again. This month has been the first uptick in inflation. Hanke was correct 1 year ago, but things changed. Inflation is coming back, rapidly. Stocks are front running it. This ends with either a) Unafordability killing liquidity in banks and a massive crash, like a crash bigger than any crash in history b) Hyperinflation At the moment, all roads lead towards hyperinflation.
He's completely ignoring the fact that M2 has been growing since October 2023 and is now higher than it was in January 2023. I think he is partially right that we are sort of in the lull right now and maybe at some point in the next 3-6 months inflation could go a bit lower and it will look like a recession. After that when the lag effect shows up, the recession will be over and inflation is going to be a problem again.
@@KungPowEnterFist Yeah Hanke is still living in the past. Quantitative Easing is now a thing. FED just bails out BEFORE the liquidity crisis arises. No liquidity crisis = no crash. Banks continue to lend out money and prices continue to move higher, completely detached from any underlying value. Wages continue to lag behind. At some point you'll have a crisis when homelessness and poverty goes to such an extreme while billionairs on the other side, that people rise up and no longer take, but until then I don't see a change in this inflationary system.
@@larsh2923 No, I meant the physical aspects of destruction, not the lala market green kind. It's rather hard to run any kind of economy when businesses, cities and even nations are being destroyed. Think Katrina and infrastructure failures every month for everyone in a few years time.
Mr. Hanke brought up a good point which was m2 The Quantity Theory of Money but he left out the other side of this equation which is The Velocity of Money which is how fast is the money circulating being spent, long as it is within the healthy range of 1.5-3% YOY creating the equilibrium that is needed to avoid inflation. A little disappointed that Mr. Hanke did not provide context and only spoke to 1 aspect of the money supply. Also on Tariffs, if we look back in 2018 and 2019 Trumps admin tariffs did not create inflation. CPI/PCE did not take off. This who scare of tariffs is a speculative theory. Look at the inflation after tariffs it was at 1.9%, also any future tariffs will be accompanied by an economic plan to curb any threat of inflation which could include lower rates in order to lower the interest payments of debts and a lower dollar will assist in lowering inflation. Context matters.
Love me some Hanke; unvarnished, straight to the point. What's important about the information Hanke offers, is it's pretty straightforward to vet as well as I can as an amateur, and not a bunch of convoluted bullshit. Clarity is the new power.
I have lived in Las Vegas since 2021, and have been forced into the situation I am in for reasons I cannot tell. I just saw a commercial on the plasma display, and the narrator said social isolation can easily lead to high blood pressure. S, I am either likely to die from a disease related to high blood pressure, or maybe die from suicide from being in a torture chamber of guilt, failure, and misery here in Las Vegas around my parents, sister ,her husband, my nephews and their partners. My only reason to be around them seems to be for that reason. For that reason, there are no good days. I do not have a vehicle. I did complete a BS in mechanical engineering from the University of Arizona in 1995 and an MBA from the University of Phoenix in 2001. It seems very unlikely for some reason for me to ever do any scientific or engineering work. I would be looking for a position as a technician working in a laboratory. My life is just a torture chamber of guilt, misery, and people making me feel like a failure in Las Vegas, Nevada.
Koinos is the only crypto which incorporates all of Steve Hanke's growth principles. Land - KOIN Labor - Dapps Capital - tokens Waiting - MANA Only Koinos gets the idea,
I’m simply not in line with Hanke that Trump is negative on trade Trump wants trade, but like the triffin dilemma says, it can’t happen with growing US current account deficits. Why is it an economist can’t think of more than one subject at a time??
Correct...he has been calling for recession for a while now...its unfortunate as the recession is postponed further and further....the worst it will be once it arrives.
Lmao the second Prof Hanke was done talking about the effects of the Fed increasing the money supply which inflated the wealth of those holding assets James instantly replies with "it's because of all those socialist policies of the Democrats!" 1. The money printing started under Trump 2. The Fed is not controlled by the president no matter how bad Trump wants to 3. What socialist policy is he even referring to? The infrastructure bill that Trump wanted to pass but couldn't? The Chips Act that is brining manufacturing back to the US more than any Trump tariff could dream of? I'm really confused by these "socialist" policies James speaks of. I basically can't watch anymore of this because they've shown to be brainless clowns who don't deserve to be listened to with that little exchange
This interview had potential but I found it mediocre . Brill who doesn’t get “m2” spends zero time refining the analysis of how m2 is declining and how this might lead to a recession. Get into the metrics and numbers on the decline and the lag. Hanke gives a flippant passing remark m2 is down 18 percent but that’s the entire detail. They need to do better and fill out the analysis .
Haha - every macro doomer is right once every 15-20 yrs. We got that scare in '22 and I think we are fine for the next year atleast....beyond that, who knows. We stay humble, manage risk, and play what the market gods offer; just trade/invest in the trend unless invalidated seems to work fine for most, while having a good risk management process (which many don't...)
If there is a recession how will the fed resist calls for quantative easing especially if Trump has a say in its operations as he's indicated? Looking at charts(Trading Economics) comparing money supply and the inflation rate there doesn't seem to be a very close or tight correlation between the two - at least from what I have seen. I cant speak for the US, but QE and Inflation may be linked in a completely free market but many markets are not free in that way but are manipulated - eg: defacto price fixing by major grocerery chains in aus, seasonal factors with the production of foodstuffs etc etc many of the things that go into the basket of inflation rate calculation
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Your investment advice is worthless if I aligns with all the bearish garbage your channel has been playing for a long time now
The poor voted for the billionaires. 😂
The hogs voted for the pro-bacon party!
The hens want the foxes to guard them.
They always do. They're have been studies showing why. It makes them feel part of the "in crowd," the "winners," even though they're getting bent over. Humans are dumb animals ruled by ego. Very easy to manipulate. Just tell them you love them and work for them, "I love the uneducated."
They'll fall for it because they don't know how to research facts. They're uneducated.
It's interesting you say the "billionaires" when there are far more billionaires donating to the Demoncrat party. Get educated. Do your own research. The information is there if you're not lazy and complacent. Try to prove me wrong, hell, why not prove the media and yourself right and accept the truth.
Pretty much lol we warned them but they didn’t listen
How ironic Trump is now president to handle this situation, he is an expert at bankruptcy. We are so screwed!
He'll get a bailout - from CHINA! 🇨🇳
Except Deutsche Bank can't credit whole USA haha
If you knew anything about bankruptcy and business you wouldn't have made that stupid remark
@@chrisservais4230 enlighten us please!
@@chrisservais4230 LMAOOOOOOO .... you are the one who is clueless about business and bankruptcy regarding Chump. Chump has never been a successful businessman, but rather a con man and a cheat. Almost all of Chump's businesses are losing money and most have failed. The only "successes" that Chump has ever had were:
1) the 4-500 million he inherited from his father. Of which he cheated ad stole plenty of that from his siblings. Mary Trump is suing him over that ow.
2) The Apprentice TV show which was estimated to make him about 400 million over about 10 years. The real story being that Chump was so stupid and such a poor businessman that he turned it down numerous times, saying it would never succeed. Mark Burnett had to beg Chump to do the show and Chump finally relented.
3) The Chump Scam Fund ... which milked hundreds of millions of dollars from his MAGA morons. Which Chump then spent on himself, his wife, his legal fees, etc.
4) The scam DJT media stock . which every single credible market analyst has evaluated as totally worthless...... losing hundreds of millions already. Yet it is obvious that Russian ad Saudi money is propping it up to the tune of many billions of essentially illegal influence money.
And let us not forget the mega millions that Chump has cheated on his tax returns via bogus shell companies.
I got one check from Trump, didn't qualify for second check from Biden. The inflation started with Trump, continued with Biden.
Same
YES. People still do not understand inflation is a lagging indicator, rears it's ugly head 12-18 months later and is always related to monetary policy. Print trillions, hold rates near zero (Trump policies)....INFLATION.
What??????
Because of all the illegal immigrants (housing and rents) and shut down of the Keystone pipeline under Biden is why inflation took off. Henke can say all he wants oil is the key to inflation it's in everything including shipping costs.
Same here.
Is this the same recession he was forecasting for late 2023 and then 2024 or is this a different one?
Oh yeah we are doing great the last 5 years. Amazing just ask the ruined middle class.
Same recession as middle class are experiencing, but no crash imminent.
Crash will be the worst in American history under Trump policies. I’m a fortune teller and I’d bet my life savings that our economy will suffer Bigly as Trump would say.
Yes he's been wrong for two years running. He did get inflation right.
boom bust cycle is a natural as sunrise or sunset ; its not IF but WHEN, and the only thing we can control is the severity. a policy of fiscal restraint and ability to be able to lower interest rates and implement stimulus helps reduce the effects, irrational behavior, drastic spendings, trade wars, cheap money, combined with deregulation of the banking industry can lead to server economic recessions and prolong them.
Prof.Hanke is right. In Japan we are going through the painful journey exactly as the Professor explains in plain English. The situation is much,much worse. Sad we don't have a Prof.Hanke hiere.
Really??? Explain that. Japan has their major market crash when... about 40 years ago now. And the Bank of Japan has been printing Yen like crazy for this 40 years now and the Japanese national debt is way over 200% of GDP now .... and yet supposedly Japan has had a deflation problem not an inflation problem. That is totally contrary to what Professor states about inflation and money supply.
@coreyham3753 Japan will be the canary in the coal mine. It's a MMTers wet dream, infinite debt, almost zero interest...it's main problem is that it has to import its energy.
@@coreyham3753wasn’t all that japanese money just transferred to the US, to finance the US debt??
So didn’t have any effect on the japanese economy other than a steady flow of money and demand from the US.
@@prebenpetersen5982 I honestly do not follow Japan very much, but my recollection is that Japan had a massive stock market and asset crash of about 75-80% back in the 1980's I think it was. And I think that Japan still to this day has not recovered to stock market or asset price levels of then. So that is now over 30 years.
The reason why Japan is able to finance US debt is because they have huge trade surpluses with the US, and have had for decades. AS such they only have 2 main choices ... holding US dollars at zero interest or buying US bonds and earning some interest. They choose the latter. At one point the Japanese tried to use their excess US dollars to buy US assets and they probably still do some of that.
However, Japan has printed Yen like crazy for the last 3 decades and now has a national debt well in excess of 200% of GDP. Much higher than the USA. Such Yen printing was spent on government programs, infrastructure, etc. But Japan had a persistent deflation problem, not an inflation problem. Which calls into question this Professors theory that money printing by the Fed is always the root cause of inflation.
Honestly, this concerns me and has left me uneasy. Especially this potential depression, no more a recession. I'm now thinking of ways to protect my portf0lio worth of $800k from this bloodbath.
Knowledgeable Investors know where and how to put money during a crisis in order to reduce risk and maximize returns. See a market strategist with experience if you are unable to manage these market conditions.
Accurate asset allocation is crucial, I used hedging strategies to allocate part of my portfOlio to defensive assets for market downturns. Expert guidance is vital for achieving this. This approach has helped me stay finan-cially secure for over five years, yielding nearly $1 million in returns on invest-ments.
I could really use the expertise of this advsors
Her name is ‘VICTORIA LOUISA SAYLOR’. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment.
Thanks for sharing. I curiously searched for her full name and her website popped up after scrolling a bit. I looked through her credentials and did my due diligence before contacting her.
Billionaires manipulating markets in betting markets
Dems own twice the money that Republicans do. Educate yourself, or else you will become my exit liquidity.
They just follow the fed's injections that's all they are doing. Not their faults. Tell the fed to stop injecting liquidity and they won't invest in the markets. It's called don't fight the fed.
The person, who’s not able to understand what’s going on between Ukraine and russia and why the USA gives Ukraine weapons, and why it’s not the same as the North Korean troops in Ukraine, is not worth to listen to.
Why don't you educate us? Until you can rebut what Hanke said, Hanke's points are based on facts and logic, and are very well taken.
Mal distribution in the history of the country - 😅😅😅😅😅😅😅. Ronald Reagan holds that prize - it took 40 years to surface.
I really wanted to watch this. I’m a registered Independent. I would never trust anyone who lies or is too stupid to know what an election landslide is, over 57% of the vote. The house is so far only a six seat majority, and the senate still cannot overcome a filibuster. Are you both bad at math? And you want us to trust you with our money. 😂
In the US ,there will never be a real landslide. Even Trump was almost shot, it didn't move 5% of the votes, the two impeachment, 94 fancy charges didn't even move 5%. In a normal country, this should move 40% or more of the votes. Half of Americans want their country fail.
Well they say this because he won the swing states! It’s all coke and Pepsi! Better prepare and get self sufficient
@@ActiveTravelWestUSADo you rescue others in yours life from taking responsibility for their spoken statements?
Think of landslide is control of all legislative bodies, clear win in presidential election and control of supreme court. I would call that landslide victory.
This is analysis for mor ons. The host has concluded that Biden's "socialist" policies resulted in a massive wealth transfer to the super wealthy. 😅😅
Same as trumps first admin
Trump for sure set acceptable questions in the podcasts.. he was almost asked no challenging questions - it was marketing for him. no accountability or journalistic standard. just pump. like a meme coin.
Kamala was offered to go on Joe Rogan's show... 🙅♀️ That was the election right there if it wasn't already blown. IMHO, Democrats made a mistake going with Biden in 2020. Lot's of good candidates were in the mix. Too many, really.
It is insane to me that no one understands we are in stagflation...
How so? Inflation i get, where's the stagnation
@@fchoi1 Our productivity as a country is NOT growing. Certain sectors are winning but the Real Economy is screwed. It will only get worse
@@LionMentality1982 And manufacturing went to Chyna same as AUS !
how do you get inflation in shrinking economic growth and high debt? I get why we had stagflation in the 70's we were a manufacturing economy with production, now we are a services economy with low production and high debt, which is deflationary. Especially when the liquidity gets all sucked up to pay for debt. People won't be spending, they will be forced to stop spending to pay off debt. Supply will increase lowering prices. Printing to hold up markets is unproductive and there for doesn't create inflation. Hence 2009-2020 very low inflation.
@@LionMentality1982 So high debt low productivity and high rates. How's that inflationary?
Here's what really happened. For 20 years the USA has been importing DEFLATION from China as they sold us cheap products and bought our bonds so that our dollar would not drop in value. The Chinese essentially pulled inflation from the USA and they had pretty high domestic inflation as a result. Well now that Trump got us started de-coupling from China, the real inflation of the USA is showing, not only that, we have 20 years of inflation to catch up with us, all at once, thank you Donald, you really did a number on the American economy. The more you decouple China from the USA, the higher the inflation will go, the bigger the little guy in the USA gets hurt, and they are the fools that just re elected you ...
Why don’t you post how many times you have been wrong. That way we will all know you don’t know what you are talking about.
Recession or not, when everything is hitting all-time highs, it’s a good time to trim some positions and build up cash reserves. I’m thinking of diversifying my $200K portfolio to hedge against potential downturns, but I’m unsure of the best strategy to pursue.
I also think everyone needs a Margin of Safety in their portfolios and just remember, It's time in the market versus timing the market.
Reduce risk in your portfolios, strengthen your core holdings, and take some profits while adjusting your allocations. I’d recommend considering a managed portfolio, but keep in mind that they don't always perform well. It’s better to consult with a trusted fiduciary for guidance-that’s what has worked for my spouse and me. We've achieved over 80% capital growth, excluding dividends.
I could really use the expertise of this advsors
Her name is ‘Marissa Lynn Babula’. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment.
just sell and sit on cash. the opportunity to catch the next bottom is coming afterwards. But right now is not the time to sell. Wait till after the Orange Disaster 2.0 is sworn in.
Steve should stick to economics. His geopolitical views and understanding of current situation in Ukraine or Taiwan is on the level of my dog. This was a disporting ending. I lost confidence in all he said before, and he has been wrong on the economy for a long time now.🤦♀🤦♂
He said very little about Taiwan and was pretty accurate about Ukraine. Your dog sounds pretty smart.
an early recession would be perfect for Trump rather than one during the middle or end of his term.
unless he is unable to get out of it
Hopefully he embraces it and uses it as a chance to enact his changes and onshoring
@@JS-ih4qi Trump is in a position to be crowned the greatest president of all time. The million dollar question is....Will he fumble the bag or seize the moment?
@@BookerT1 🤡 His legacy as one of worst is already secured w Covid. Real question is how bad will or worse will it get
@@Ecko-i8b when was the last time a recession lasted 4 years?
The over/under on Hanke mentioning the "money supply" is 49 in any podcast he participates in!
How he can call himself an economist while treating the velocity of money and labor productivity as constants (and money supply being the only variable), I find both vexing and perplexing. I toss him in the same dustbin as Eugene F. Fama with his "Efficient Market Theory".
He might be right about the outcomes, but his reasoning is deeply flawed. He keeps bringing up money supply - fair enough - but then claims it has nothing to do with the interest rate. The two concepts are inextricably linked: central banks influence money supply by adjusting interest rates, mostly through open market operations or bond purchases (quantitative easing). How can he call himself an economist while ignoring such a fundamental relationship. Also it was money supply against the backdrop of disrupted supply chains during covid, which created an undersupply of goods - too much demand in a very short time span. Will stop here because there's just too much to contest about the neolib. He's part of the school that got us here. Seeds were planted decades ago since Regan!
I am 75. I have heard analysts blame Fed chairs for economies since I was about 17 or 18. The Dow hit 1000 when I was in college. I guess things went OK.
The stock market is not the economy. Seem to remember that something like 80% of the stock market is owed by the top 10%. Yes, the top 1-2% has benefited greatly since the 1960-70's, but what about the rest of the population? Wealth inequality today is much greater than it has been at any time since the 1980's.
When you were 17, a family could live well off the average man’s income . That is not the case anymore. The price of the Dow is not a proper measure of the real economy.
This interviewer is awful…….Its ruining my Henke time
Facts = Spin??? This guy is nuts😢
The common man who received government cash injections spent it and kept the economy from crashing. The rich man saw his portfolio grow... While certainly a shift in wealth the other option would have been worse by two fold. A large correction is inevitable.
does the professor have any data to support his intuition? the St Louis Fed data says the opposite - 2018 t0 2023 the bottom quintile had income growth higher than middle which in turn was higher than top quintile.
I think you are wrong, trans and inflation and immigration were the reason people didn’t come out to vote for Harris.
Yeah, I think people are missing that this was a vote against Biden and not so much on Trump. And he literally ran away from Project 2025. So when we are told he has a mandate I always say for what? He ran on deportation, no OT tax, and tariffs. So he definitely has a mandate for that…but that’s it. He’s going to do what Oboma did and give us laws that we didn’t ask for like Oboma care. Helping a small segment of society.
Nutshell !
@@ricardosantana5424 Small segment, your joking right
Landslide? Sounds like the same adherence to truth as Trumpism.
I thought that exact same. These guys speak in unison
Wasn’t a landslide, and he barely won the popular vote. Votes are still being counted 🤔
Almost everyone said that tariff will cause inflation, so doesn’t this erase the supposed, lower inflation in 2025?
People that say that are just Trump haters. Inflation only follows M2. Why so many brainwashed leftists commenting here? At least there will be exit liquidity for me.
This was interesting till Steve started complaining about wester support of Ukraine and America wanted war with China. At that point I realized I can't liste to what he has to say.
It's good to listen to people you disagree with. You can blame NATO and the Biden admin for continued escalations in Ukraine.
Everytime I see Hanke, I click the dislike and turn off. The guy is a turnip. He's wrong on economics, on money supply, on geopolitics, on everything. He has some gall to be so wrong for so many years and still come on the internet prognosticating. Don't give the windbag anymore airtime.
@MidnightSouls hes called multiple things right. It's hard to have a recession with 2 trillion deficits. Give me 2 trillion and I'll show you a good time. Govt spending is floating the economy right now.
if you dont understand USA actually caused the war you are hopeless for saving anyway
Trump election, limited Biden govt support, Limited support. Chinese support of Russia the outcome of war is as clear as day. At this point of time no one is doubting the supply side of story with inflations. Check any developed country where central banks printed money, inflation went crazy. I would love to hear your data point.
Food inflation is actually 55% price gouging and only 45% inflationary factors.
The recession has already begun. Im a Cnc Machinist and a big customer of ours is ASML. They are starting to cut our overtime for the first time in 20 years.
Can't sell any new equipment to China because of US safety interests. Also the German auto industry is going down rapidly.
@@JeeGee114 German manufacturing as a whole suffering due to rising gas prices.
I love listening to Professor Steve Hanke!!!
Maybe people should campaign for 9 years. Even though we were sick of the years of whining and victimhood he still won. He will keep campaigning and blaming from day 1.
I do not know what is happening. A question in my mind is this: is there someone or some group that wants me doing the what people consider to be the simplest tasks to earn money so that I feel bored, miserable and like failure the rest of my life?
Hanke is 5 Star. 😊
If you say so
He's a broken clock
@donsaluga5062
He was spot on with gold.
you say the average person got nothing but an inlation tax, but what about lower unemployment?
GREAT VIDEO!!! STEVE IS AWESOME!!!
Our workers are being gutted and our adversaries are placing tariffs on us how is that equal?
Great interview, very interesting
Enjoyed. Thanks!
Always enjoy Steve but agree with Druck! Inflation will come roaring back in 2025
Think first deflation bust follwed by stagflation due to Fed interventions
I am so tired of network news, I can’t remember when I last got news from TV station or cable network news.
What do you mean by op-eds, you mean propaganda😢
Why is Hanke not a top advisor for all world governments. His analysis is right!
Because he is not right.
No recession next year. American business is too strong for a recession of any merit. We already had one recently. S&P 500 going up as always. Invest long on a pullback.
I've heard recession every single year for the last 3 years, I don't buy it. They are judging the economy on old metrics. My thesis is "the dollar should only be looked at as the fiat currency you use when you need to make a purchase. Crypto,gold,silver, equities, anything but the dollar should be held as savings. Young people get this, every kid has an app on their phone buying this stuff, sure you can cry wolf every year and one year you'll be right, I don't care, its just noise." People should be more worried about how the magnetic pole is moving 40 miles a year and accelerating. By 2040 your compass will be pointing east, that's a real problem.
If I wanted a recap of the election, I'd go to fox.
It's hilarious for him to say that money supply was the only issue, it shows that he needs to get out of his office and actually run a business. I was dealing with running a manufacturing business and building real estate. My demand for manufacturing did not go up but my ability to produce went to zero. I could not get many of the small electronic components I need to do my job for years. When the supply of those components suddenly began to flow again, then you saw everyone grab every component they could. Now many of the companies I purchase from have excess inventory. Same for my real estate construction. We weren't building more but simply could not get the materials we needed in a reasonable time and price.
They say this every year though. Even a monkey 🙊 is right 5% of the time.
Hanke = freedom
We've been in a recession since last 2023
Nato is not a problem for Russia. They just don't recognize Ukraine as a state.
8:00 funny how people revolted against the billionaires by voting on a guy that wants more tax cuts for the billionaires🤣 Yeah we will see how the distribution will be under Trump, seems to be even more to the billionaires and less to the common man(import tax and inflation)
“Not the sharpest knife in the drawer.”
The political analysis is spot on. If you make 50 000 a year you have to work for 1 million 20 years, for 1 billion 20 000 years and for 100 billion 2 000 000 years. You are happy and make 100 000 a year? Then it is only 1 million years to make the 100 billion, congratulation. Oh and do not spend anything.
Reaction to covid spending: never let a crisis go to waste.
A recession has been predicted for several years. It hasn't happened because they have not reduced the money supply. They could probably reduce the money supply without causing a recession. It would mainly cause deflation.
Whos still listening for this drunk professor 😂😂😂 he’s calling for recession from 2022 😂😂😂now is in 2025 next year will be in 2026 etc
Correct...he has been calling for recession for a while now...its unfortunate as the recession is postponed further and further....the worst it will be once it arrives.
@ 🤣🤣🤣 it’s not coming anytime soon … I mean no recession will happen in 10 years I promise you… because governments will print money and all these dumb idiots like this economy professor he can hide somewhere with he’s predictions
Is it money supply only. Supply and demand doesn’t affect prices?
The money supply is NOT contracting anymore. It's been growing since the end of 2023,, which is when the markets started moving up again. This month has been the first uptick in inflation. Hanke was correct 1 year ago, but things changed. Inflation is coming back, rapidly. Stocks are front running it.
This ends with either
a) Unafordability killing liquidity in banks and a massive crash, like a crash bigger than any crash in history
b) Hyperinflation
At the moment, all roads lead towards hyperinflation.
He's completely ignoring the fact that M2 has been growing since October 2023 and is now higher than it was in January 2023. I think he is partially right that we are sort of in the lull right now and maybe at some point in the next 3-6 months inflation could go a bit lower and it will look like a recession. After that when the lag effect shows up, the recession will be over and inflation is going to be a problem again.
@@KungPowEnterFist Yeah Hanke is still living in the past. Quantitative Easing is now a thing. FED just bails out BEFORE the liquidity crisis arises. No liquidity crisis = no crash. Banks continue to lend out money and prices continue to move higher, completely detached from any underlying value. Wages continue to lag behind.
At some point you'll have a crisis when homelessness and poverty goes to such an extreme while billionairs on the other side, that people rise up and no longer take, but until then I don't see a change in this inflationary system.
I'm surprised there was no mention of the impacts from climate change as a risk to economies.
Sure it was, Hanke said the Green economy wasn't priced in, in the S&P (or the wars, or Trump's administration, or the tariffs etc)
@@larsh2923 No, I meant the physical aspects of destruction, not the lala market green kind. It's rather hard to run any kind of economy when businesses, cities and even nations are being destroyed. Think Katrina and infrastructure failures every month for everyone in a few years time.
Between Druckenmiller and this guy, the choice is pretty obvious.
Mr. Hanke brought up a good point which was m2 The Quantity Theory of Money but he left out the other side of this equation which is The Velocity of Money which is how fast is the money circulating being spent, long as it is within the healthy range of 1.5-3% YOY creating the equilibrium that is needed to avoid inflation. A little disappointed that Mr. Hanke did not provide context and only spoke to 1 aspect of the money supply. Also on Tariffs, if we look back in 2018 and 2019 Trumps admin tariffs did not create inflation. CPI/PCE did not take off. This who scare of tariffs is a speculative theory. Look at the inflation after tariffs it was at 1.9%, also any future tariffs will be accompanied by an economic plan to curb any threat of inflation which could include lower rates in order to lower the interest payments of debts and a lower dollar will assist in lowering inflation. Context matters.
YOU MEAN THE BEGINNIG OF THE DEPRESSION ,AS BAD AS THE 29 CRASH
Love me some Hanke; unvarnished, straight to the point. What's important about the information Hanke offers, is it's pretty straightforward to vet as well as I can as an amateur, and not a bunch of convoluted bullshit. Clarity is the new power.
Unvarnished BS
I have lived in Las Vegas since 2021, and have been forced into the situation I am in for reasons I cannot tell. I just saw a commercial on the plasma display, and the narrator said social isolation can easily lead to high blood pressure. S, I am either likely to die from a disease related to high blood pressure, or maybe die from suicide from being in a torture chamber of guilt, failure, and misery here in Las Vegas around my parents, sister ,her husband, my nephews and their partners. My only reason to be around them seems to be for that reason. For that reason, there are no good days. I do not have a vehicle. I did complete a BS in mechanical engineering from the University of Arizona in 1995 and an MBA from the University of Phoenix in 2001. It seems very unlikely for some reason for me to ever do any scientific or engineering work. I would be looking for a position as a technician working in a laboratory. My life is just a torture chamber of guilt, misery, and people making me feel like a failure in Las Vegas, Nevada.
Maybe some group has been trying to show I am deceptive. I am always uncomfortable with my parents and immediate relatives.
Wealthion: Recession coming in 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025......lmfao
Yes it gets old, even though I believe something is coming soon this time.......all in my opinion.
yeah always feanmongering also with that other guy who sold this channel and right after opened another one LMAO
One of the best interviews with professor Hanke
⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Koinos is the only crypto which incorporates all of Steve Hanke's growth principles.
Land - KOIN
Labor - Dapps
Capital - tokens
Waiting - MANA
Only Koinos gets the idea,
Landslide 1.2 percent????? That’s crazy.
Such pretzel logic from this guest….. billionaires are too rich, so vote for the billionaires!!!
What is the Best indicators of Money Supply (Increase or Decrease) ?
oh look! The annual "Recession in 202X!"
Jimbo…..he goes by Steve not Steven
And trump is going to make Rich, less rich ?!
I’m simply not in line with Hanke that Trump is negative on trade
Trump wants trade, but like the triffin dilemma says, it can’t happen with growing US current account deficits.
Why is it an economist can’t think of more than one subject at a time??
If not next year then next and next year.
Correct...he has been calling for recession for a while now...its unfortunate as the recession is postponed further and further....the worst it will be once it arrives.
Make Hanky the Fed chairman
If it wouldn't be NATO putler will make up different excuses. You maybe money wise but leave Ukraine alone.
No fkin recession
We will crash up and be equally poor
Lmao the second Prof Hanke was done talking about the effects of the Fed increasing the money supply which inflated the wealth of those holding assets James instantly replies with "it's because of all those socialist policies of the Democrats!" 1. The money printing started under Trump 2. The Fed is not controlled by the president no matter how bad Trump wants to 3. What socialist policy is he even referring to? The infrastructure bill that Trump wanted to pass but couldn't? The Chips Act that is brining manufacturing back to the US more than any Trump tariff could dream of? I'm really confused by these "socialist" policies James speaks of. I basically can't watch anymore of this because they've shown to be brainless clowns who don't deserve to be listened to with that little exchange
I love this channel as the always play bearish bullshit so great contrarian indicators
I wish James would have asked him how would you create jobs in the USA? That's why Trump wants the tariffs, to even the playing field.
Jimmy Boy!!!
So... China makes products & we buy it.
We make U.S. Treasuries & China buys it.
That is not trade. It's something else.
What happened to the guaranteed recession in 2023?
Appreciate your insight & comments.
Another part of the Biden large budgets
is the Congress. 😢
Wow
Next year Hankie will say recession in 2026.
This interview had potential but I found it mediocre . Brill who doesn’t get “m2” spends zero time refining the analysis of how m2 is declining and how this might lead to a recession. Get into the metrics and numbers on the decline and the lag. Hanke gives a flippant passing remark m2 is down 18 percent but that’s the entire detail. They need to do better and fill out the analysis .
these guys treat recession like Bettlejuice - They keep saying it hoping it happens
Haha - every macro doomer is right once every 15-20 yrs. We got that scare in '22 and I think we are fine for the next year atleast....beyond that, who knows. We stay humble, manage risk, and play what the market gods offer; just trade/invest in the trend unless invalidated seems to work fine for most, while having a good risk management process (which many don't...)
I listened for 5 minutes....nothing new here.
Landslide...that's a stretch. Plurality is closer to the fact.
phat guy's got huge increases=) 7:01
Solution what do you have
09:13 - LOL , keep learning The taxes of a Currency-Issuing-Government do not purchase the Spending of the Currecny-Issuing-Government
This is the most absurd thing i have heard absolutely false
His comment on main media just spinning what they want, real news coverage is minimal.
👎I don’t do Hanke.
If there is a recession how will the fed resist calls for quantative easing especially if Trump has a say in its operations as he's indicated? Looking at charts(Trading Economics) comparing money supply and the inflation rate there doesn't seem to be a very close or tight correlation between the two - at least from what I have seen. I cant speak for the US, but QE and Inflation may be linked in a completely free market but many markets are not free in that way but are manipulated - eg: defacto price fixing by major grocerery chains in aus, seasonal factors with the production of foodstuffs etc etc many of the things that go into the basket of inflation rate calculation
What a load of bullshit.
No more Steve Hanke please. He should go on Russian and Chinese TVs 😄😃