Labour’s poll lead is ‘artificial’ warns Peter Mandelson | How To Win An Election
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- Опубліковано 20 вер 2024
- “This is an artificial lead, believe me it’s going to contract.”
Peter Mandelson predicts Labour are heading for an “ambivalent” result at the general election that could see a hung parliament. Plus, Polly Mackenzie lifts the lid on how the 2010 Liberal Democrat-Conservative coalition came together.
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The turnout for the election won’t be high as there’s nothing to give a positive vote to. It stands to be lower than 2001!
Depends what hit's the news in the run up, if the weather is good and nothing much changes in the tories favour I reckon a large turn out and a tory wipeout.
It will be high on the Lib-Dems and Labour side as well as tactical voting
Most long term Conservatives I know are that disgusted with them there either staying at home or tactically voting
I actually disagree - I think the anti-tory sentiment is so high right now people will mobilize to vote them out.
I think it'll be a high turn out from people voting against the tories. People have had enough of them and are desperate to see them gone
Yes I think you're onto something. And I imagine the people who will fail to turn up are the "don't knows". The exact people who the conservatives need to not utterly collapse in the election.
If Labour do not win I fear serious unrest.
The UK is a failed state and must face up to what the Tories are doing and have done.
Red Tory or Blue Tory?
If Labour win, with those imbeciles, in charge, this country is totally finished.
Do you think that we are as Dom as you
Labour and Tory are now exactly the same. High immigration, high taxation, big government parties.
Reform UK are the only party who still believe in right wing values (lower tax, no nanny state government).
You are very dom and thick if you think your beloved party is a y different
I will never believe the result until it comes. Money buys lies. Always has.
Do not believe any polls . The only Labour voters I know are voting Reform
The biggest polling company, Yougov is owned by a couple tory peers. They have no interest in doing Labour any favours
I wouldn't vote for Labour or Tory with a barge pole.
Only if you want to lose most of your wealth or health.
@@maccagrabme I was 45 years with Labour, lots of us lost our wealth & health with these two 🤡in government 👍
Mandelson is right up to a point but currently a 21 point average lead for labour abs , over 19 points for 2 years , an economy and nhs much much worse than 2010 … the only question now is by how much the Tory’s will lose by
What does it matter, we have a uni-party. Whichever party wins makes little or no difference.
Then don’t vote for either
@@Gary-le7dz I don't
👍🏻
@@DavidRenwick-t1eNailed it! Dominic Cummings would agree with you!
I feel Labour will win because the tories have run out of steam
Hopefully Wales will not vote Labour, considering the ridiculous 20mph policy, the p poor NHS, the squander spending. Please don't vote Labour they have ruined Wales.
Lock him up,
This podcast is so pleased with itself. It rivals even Stewart & Campbell.
I think you can probably cut Labour's poll lead by half . This will still be sufficient for a comfortable majority. Tactical voting will disproportionately inflate Labour's seats won.Mandelson is wrong talking about the huge swing required by Labour, it's assuming an even national swing . Recent polling shows Labour are much further ahead in the marginal seats than the overall polling.
All through the 2010, 2015 and 2019 elections, the polls for Labour were 5 points overestimated. Rory Stewart talks about this in a recent episode of The Rest is Politics. In other words, a 10 point lead is only really a 5 point lead - which is fairly marginal.
Politicians do not give a dam about voters; they are in it for themselves. The system needs changing, politicians should only be allowed to do two terms in row and their family members should be banned from politics for 100 years or 4 generations.
Though the current system certainly needs reform this would be far too limited and would trigger unintended consequences. Highly experienced civil servants, party policy committees and lobbyists would run rings around, and control, a regular stream of totally inexperienced politicians. By the time the politicians get to grips with instigating and enacting change they’ll only have one term left before the ‘fresh blood’ replace them.
Just watch ‘Yes Minister’
If only all criminals were allowed such privileged existence and had so much influence, media exposure
He should be in prison, you're right
I think in event of a hung Parliament, Starmer is more likely to be able to negotiate a confidence and supply or coalition agreement than some prior Labour leaders.
Labour will win by a landslide the 2p tax cut saw Tories loose ground further everywhere stuff is crumbling in my constituency we need 20 million for RAAC in the hospital and there's raw sewage turning the river lifeless
The Lib Dem’s said they wouldn’t negotiate with the Conservatives this time no matter what. Nobody except Reform would form a government with them probably
For me the political landscape in the UK always was "interesting". The hands that are shaping/shaped British politics, so economics, are exposed anyways and the Tories are everything but good for the people. If Labour could bring essential changes I'm not sure. Labour under Starmer will do some cosmetics but I don't think he will bring fundamental changes, or "turn the wheel back". People in the UK, like everywhere else (to a certain extent), are "deceived from reality" and solutions that are really necessary won't be made.
@@teardrop-in-a-fishbowl I agree. I left the Democratic Party in the US because I discovered it is as beholden to Big Business as the Republicans. The Republicans are actually more honest, because they don't pretend it's not so. ⚖️👎
Tories out.
why are you chatting with s someone who has been in dire trouble and was a close friend of Epstein?
Is Mandelson paid per sentence, talking utter tosh, no one gives a toss about his eating habits
Indeed,: nor his farting habits. (Which is whenever he opens his mouth.)
He can,t lose but it will be the same old Labour as we have the same old Labour in our two party democracy,we already have the same old Tories,all three major parties go for the middle ground!
What people seem to fail to understand is yes, things are failing under the Conservatives but Labour aren't just going to wave a magic wand and suddenly things will be back to normal. It will AT BEST stay as it is now or more likely get worse.
If you think simply voting Labour will solve this mess then you don't realise just how far we've fallen.
I think most of us understand that this will take a decade at least to fix. The reason I will vote Tories out is so that it doesn't continue to get *worse*. I suspect I'm not alone.
The exercises would be exhausting for any successor. Economics are fragile, complicated and dependent. To change "things" it needs feasible concepts, a will, trust and working out the failures first.
Probably best to sell the rest of the country to the Saudis or the Russians. Get it over and done with.
If only we'd voted in Clown Corbyn back in 2019. That was such a missed opportunity to have that dxxkhead running the country. The same guy who gifted that absolute waste of time Boris Johnson his 80 seat majority.
No, but they're a responsible party without any insane ideas and will run things responsibly without the constant drama.
According to Mandelson. Rejoining his EU club is all that is required. A yesterday's man.
As Labour Friend of the fascist and apartheid state of Israel does Mandelson think there should be a ceasefire in Gaza. What is his response to the International Court of Justice and it’s judgement that genocide is a plausible conclusion to be drawn to the continuing destruction of the Palestinian people in Gaza?
Fascist and apartheid? You mean Hamas, surely?
@@andrewdaws7275Yes fascist and apartheid, have you seen the state of the Israeli government? Yes, Hamas are also genocidal and authoritarian. It doesn't have to be one or the other you know.
Mandelson is right. Rishi needs to bulk up, hit the gym, become a short king. Then he can offer Starmer a run for his money
How to form a coalition section starts at 14:35
Once you get used to fasting you find your concentration improves and actually are less distracted by hunger but it takes time to get used to it. I actually respect he does fasts but there is no chance I would vote for the conservatives
Tidies will be lucky to get 175 seats
I agree given history of polling in both UK and US that polling overstate Labour support. Analysts have talked about a "shy Tory" factor: Some Tory voters are embarrassed to tell pollsters true preferences, causing Labour to poll better than ultimate election results. In US, it's worse: Probably 10% of Trump voters are embarrassed to admit preferences because Trump is so controversial. I'm not predicting a Sunak upset, only think Labour may not win as many seats as some forecasters predict.
Ipsos MORI and YouGov are the two polling companies with the most credibility based on previous performance at GE's. And YouGov also factor in how people voted at the last election (they check) - some people can't remember. Many polling companies also assume current 'don't know' voters will vote Tory at then next GE. The overall result is that most polsters are too generous to the Tories - and considering most of them are predicting a Tory loss, even if the Labour lead comes down towards the next GE, it won''t be enough to save the Tories from being ejected from Government at the next GE.
The current 20% could be even worse there's +4 million have left the voting rolls at the dead end and 4 million new voters at the other
All a lot of voters have endured is 14 years of Tory failure + Yougov polled for tactical voting it was 40% in Lab LD and only 20% in Cons
So long as they win and the Tories lose, it's fine.
@@mattbooth307 Don't disagree though I would vote for Lib Dems.
@mattbooth307 Remember we had 13 long years of failure and abuse under New Labour which is why the Tories had to return so dont expect any change this time around, in fact this is probably the last chance the country has now before economic oblivion for us ordinary people, expect to lose 80% of your wealth and own nothing.
1992 average lead 2% this time from an election
Current2024 poll lead 21% , there is no comparison
my point exactly....
They're building for a May election because they're scared that their decisions are catching up to them, if they were confident that the 2+ year poll lead that Labour has is artifical then let Rishi delay until November when the now normal NHS winter crisis hits and more of Britain's standards checks are in. Better yet, hold off until Jan 2025 and we'll see how artificial Labour's lead is.
Speaking in my capacity as myself …
Mandy strikes again... 🧛♂️
Peter is spot on. The Hindu fasting, painfully thin, robot look really makes one feel Sunak is living in a different world to the British.
That’s what being a multi millionaire does to you. As much as I don’t like Rishi Sunak I respect the fact he does fasting and fasting requires discipline
I mean he has a different cultural background, that is a valid thing for people to consider.
Labour wants to increase privatisation in the NHS, they are not much different than the Tories.
No they don't get real there completely different
@@SlowhandGreg Yes they do, Wes Streeting has said this more than once, more privatisation in the NHS fact.
@@anthonywest2989 Quislings Blair and Hague have been going around doing a double act calling for the need for the NHS to sell patients private Data to the private sector.
ua-cam.com/users/shortskqdmQFpOizg?feature=share
Compare the NHS in 2010 to 2024. Stop pretending they are the same.
Increase privatisation may be required to deal with the waiting lists as opposed to what the Tories have been doing and taking work from the NHS to give to Private Hospitals and saying that they spending hundreds of millions or a billion dollars on the NHS.
Red and blue Tories.
I was disappointed by Polly McKenzie's reply to Catherine in France re overseas voting. She appears to want to divide voters instead of restoring or improving the rights of we many. British overseas voters still have strong ties with UK & are directly affected by British govt legislation. Unless we are also citizens of other EU countries, we no longer have the right to vote in European elections thanks to Brexit. I think EU citizens in UK with right to remain should also have a vote. The two aren't mutually exclusive.
We have a parliamentary system where we vote for a candidate to represent the local constituency that we live in. How exactly can people who live abroad vote for a candidate if they don’t live in any constituency?
None are worthy of my vote
This is from an old episode
Labour needs to show that it offers an alternative to the Tories on the NHS, which it has cut and privatized to death. However, given that Wes Streeting has received almost 200,000 pounds in donations from the private health industry, and a similar sum has been given to Starmer, I'm not optimistic
I'll give you this, you Tory boys never give up. You're flogging a dead horse, Tory boy.
Tell us how many millions the NHS is paying in interest payments thanks to Blair & Brown's PFI. The total bill for NHS PFI hospitals is ultimately projected to rise above £79bn, way in excess of original build costs of £11.4bn. Thanks Gordon
No they don't the Cons have mismanaged the economy that badly on average your -6.1% worse off than in 2010
14 years of Austerity and stagnation
The Tories haven't cut or privatised any of the NHS and I despise the Tories, they just spend a very small amount less than Labour would. Stop spouting partisan propaganda.
Labour under Starmer has become a centrist party and I'm not quiet sure if Labour would "save" the NHS as it should. Saying Labour is left is wrong, but it's still left of the Tories for sure.
They are all chums.
Rishi isn't the problem, it's the conservative part as a whole.
The prince of darkness…
mediocre conversation of mediocre people.
The labour brotherhood
No, it isn't.
It's gonna be the same as when kinnock said go back and prepare for Government,can't See labour getting in,or praying.😄
That was David Steele, Kinnock had a rally on the eve of the election & went all 'yee ha' showing himself up completely
It's almost a certainty. We have a two party system and there is just absolutely no support for the tories any more. People won't be voting FOR labour, they'll be voting AGAINST the tories
Dream on Tory
So rishi infront 😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂
Thatcher used to boasts she only needed 2 hours sleep a night. She died from mental illness.
It was 4, Dementia is common amongst the elderly. Being restless due to lack of sleep is a different kettle of fish to excessive fasting and bad dietary choices.
Untrue. I am sure Moscow central has a library.
"Gay Lord Mandelson" as Frankie Boyle says 😂
Peter who?
Abouslute bs
You’re listening to Tory propaganda 🎉🎉🎉
British 'democracy' is about choosing between two parties whith the same policies. Not a real choice however much you debate this. 'Sir' Keith Stramer as a leader of Labour Party gives me giggles.
What's the record for the lowest election turnout?
Booooooo😂😂😂😂😂
Lord Mandelson is a smart guy 👌🏽
It would be no surprise as Starmer is just another Tory with all the appeal of cold soggy cabbage and even more dead sprouts.
Your assuming the fasting is true ?!
Why wouldn’t it be true. I do it. Lots of people do it. Makes me feel great.
Not very serious conversation about coalitions, was it? Interesting history lesson, but nothing worth thinking about. Why dont you talk about how Denmark does it? 13 parties all fighting to be a part of a coalition, which has it`s anchor in the middel of the partitical spectrum. No ultra left or ultra right that are responsible for vacum created in the middle, when the brist go to the poles. Coalition in Denmark means a lot of compromise, but it works really well. A 2 party system creates devision and someone like Putin loves this, cos its easy for him, in one way or other, to prop up one or the other side in order to exaggerate the devide. Drop the 2 part system, it´s outdated and easy to manipulate.
There are several 3+ party systems that are facing similar polarization problems to the ones you ascribe to two party systems. France, Italy, Netherlands, Poland, even Germany, etc.