Is the athleisure trend over? Lululemon and Nike stocks crash after guidance as growth slows
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- Опубліковано 21 бер 2024
- #investing #trading #stockmarket
Hi all,
Some quick thoughts on the #lululemon and #nike earnings and guidance. Both of them had solid quarters but their guidance was very weak, and telegraphed pretty well if you were paying attention. China growth seems pretty decent on both reports. And if they can put in bottoms they might both be buys after one more flush lower. For now, neither is something you need to have in your book.
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Retail stocks in general have been interesting this earnings week. $ASO went lower as well.
Nike at $85 will be interesting. That’ll be a 0.786 fib retracement since the impulsive move to the upside from the Covid dump. If that doesn’t hold, I expect $70 will be next
First! :)
Would love to see Vuori and Alo financials to compare with Lulu :)
Ya we won't until they're public at which point lulu will likely be lower from here.
@@sleepysol yup, agreed. Competitive pressures getting stronger and stronger for Lulu.
Hey Sleepysol! Great call on Lulu. It’s heading to the 350 you predicted. However do you think it’s a buy at 350? Or if not, at what price do you think it’s a buy given the risk of competition etc
I think so. 340 is 20x ntm earnings. Growth will be slow the next 4q's but if it rips below 340, like dive bombs, its worth picking up because it will likely squeeze higher to push the late shorts.
Excellent video! Is Lululemon a good value today around $358?
I think it is if you think the brand has staying power and won't turn into a Victoria secret/pink level product where girls still wear the stuff but not nearly as much and there's no growth.
I think you can assuming at best 12% growth annualized over the next 3 years. At worst it's flat to 3%. At the low end numbers, you're probably looking at a stock that should trade down to 250~. At the high end, it goes back to 450 by mid next year.
So saying all that if you're bullish or at least constructive on the brand it's a decent entry point here. Though don't be surprised if there's more downside over the next two months until we get more clarity into their 24 and 25 growth numbers.
Who do you have winning March Madness?
I really didn't have sleepy's commentary on livvy dunne on my 2024 bingo card
Creighton