Straight up, I will wait until a day or two before they release the next one to finalize my ideas, just to see if they leak information that helps. I have a draft that I think will be pretty accurate if you're just interested in approximately who ends up where, but in terms of competing with people over who can get the most picks correct, what they do with Kiribayama alone will make or break entire banzukes.
@@sumospiffysbarandgrill I did my first draft but it's a mess. If you assume Ichinojo gets a sanyaku spot opened up for him(12-3 Yusho from M2, how do you not), then M1 becomes impossible to fill without giving Midorifuji a ridiculous promotion(to my untrained eye).
@@glendunbar You have Midorifuji going all the way to M1 in that case? Phew, yeah, that would be a lot. Granted, I think he'll end up at M2, but surrounded by a lot of other gigantic jumps, so it won't look that absurd in context.
It's actually a brilliant way to shuffle up. Instead of weight, it's the actual and assumed skill, the wrestler got in the moment that is the determinant factor. It will assure maximum entertainment
To be up front about it, when the video was done and I re-watched it for glaring errors, that did come more to the front of my mind. And it's absolutely correct that if both of them had been promoted at all, it would have been fine and correct for Ryuden to be ahead of Hidenoumi. The issue wholly revolves around the fact that Hidenoumi received zero promotion when there was a clear spot for him to go. As an example of the opposite happening, at Kyushu 2011, Okinoumi went 8-7 at M1W, and Goeido went 10-5 at M5W. This put them at the same promotional point (K1W), but that wasn't an option, so Okinoumi was moved to M1E and Goeido was put at M1W. Of course, that was a different committee, and you can certainly say that it was a little different since Goeido went 10-5 and thus was receiving a more significant promotion anyway, but it's difficult to find examples just like this; the database search isn't that refined. What I can say for certain is that outside of the sanyaku ranks (where upward movement is generally more difficult), there are almost zero instances of an 8-7 rikishi not being promoted at least a half-rank since 2004. In fact, the two I found in makuuchi were from the same basho-Kyushu 2019-which is the one I'll be doing another video on shortly because of what an absolute clusterfuck it was. So it does look like Hidenoumi's lack of promotion cuts hard against history.
Anyone who does GTB would put Hidenoumi at J1e if they were in the committee for sure. Atlhough this new committee seems the most GTB-like with how they're placing everyone depending on how the math is dictating it. 6-9 M1e going to M4w only happened once is 40 instances before this iirc for example
@@sumospiffysbarandgrill The way I think about it is that Ryuden and Hidenoumi deserved to be at the same spot so the banzuke committee flipped a coin and Ryuden won
Great video. Given the chaos of Nagoya, I can't wait to see how you sort out the September Basho :)
Straight up, I will wait until a day or two before they release the next one to finalize my ideas, just to see if they leak information that helps. I have a draft that I think will be pretty accurate if you're just interested in approximately who ends up where, but in terms of competing with people over who can get the most picks correct, what they do with Kiribayama alone will make or break entire banzukes.
@@sumospiffysbarandgrill I did my first draft but it's a mess. If you assume Ichinojo gets a sanyaku spot opened up for him(12-3 Yusho from M2, how do you not), then M1 becomes impossible to fill without giving Midorifuji a ridiculous promotion(to my untrained eye).
@@glendunbar You have Midorifuji going all the way to M1 in that case? Phew, yeah, that would be a lot. Granted, I think he'll end up at M2, but surrounded by a lot of other gigantic jumps, so it won't look that absurd in context.
Great stuff - thanks!
It's actually a brilliant way to shuffle up. Instead of weight, it's the actual and assumed skill, the wrestler got in the moment that is the determinant factor. It will assure maximum entertainment
I think the 1 explanation to Ryuden-Hidenoumi is "Ryuden had a better record and deserved to be at the same place so he needs to be ahead"
To be up front about it, when the video was done and I re-watched it for glaring errors, that did come more to the front of my mind. And it's absolutely correct that if both of them had been promoted at all, it would have been fine and correct for Ryuden to be ahead of Hidenoumi. The issue wholly revolves around the fact that Hidenoumi received zero promotion when there was a clear spot for him to go.
As an example of the opposite happening, at Kyushu 2011, Okinoumi went 8-7 at M1W, and Goeido went 10-5 at M5W. This put them at the same promotional point (K1W), but that wasn't an option, so Okinoumi was moved to M1E and Goeido was put at M1W. Of course, that was a different committee, and you can certainly say that it was a little different since Goeido went 10-5 and thus was receiving a more significant promotion anyway, but it's difficult to find examples just like this; the database search isn't that refined.
What I can say for certain is that outside of the sanyaku ranks (where upward movement is generally more difficult), there are almost zero instances of an 8-7 rikishi not being promoted at least a half-rank since 2004. In fact, the two I found in makuuchi were from the same basho-Kyushu 2019-which is the one I'll be doing another video on shortly because of what an absolute clusterfuck it was. So it does look like Hidenoumi's lack of promotion cuts hard against history.
Anyone who does GTB would put Hidenoumi at J1e if they were in the committee for sure. Atlhough this new committee seems the most GTB-like with how they're placing everyone depending on how the math is dictating it. 6-9 M1e going to M4w only happened once is 40 instances before this iirc for example
@@sumospiffysbarandgrill The way I think about it is that Ryuden and Hidenoumi deserved to be at the same spot so the banzuke committee flipped a coin and Ryuden won
based