At the end of this video I mention Julio Urias as another player you should avoid. By mistake I either said Julio Rodriguez or it sounded like Julio Rodriguez. That was in reference to Julio Urias who was arrested for felony domestic violence.
I've always said 70-80% of value on a new box is what should be expected. Ideally, the boxes appreciate in value overtime due to rookies developing and becoming stars and being available in sealed product. This breakdown screams to buy sealed product and hold it based on these numbers. Corbin, Adley, Volpe and the rest of the class should raise the floor price on this product. Thanks for sharing Scottie.
Agreed man..I don’t waste money on boxes of card’s anymore that I just end up throwing in a box and put them back n a closet.Only buy singles and players I PC now.
See I usually have that mindset too. But I have a lot of fun ripping boxes, and every time I start to get disenchanted and realize it’s a rip off..I pull some fire and I’m hooked again 😂
Awesome video, my friend, thank you for breakin' it down! I'm kicking the crap out of the odds, on hits & autos, for '23 TOPPS CHROME BASEBALL. I've only purchased blasters, & mega boxes, and am averaging just over 1 auto per box, & a crapload of numbered parallels, good inserts, etc. I never look at collecting from a monetary standpoint, I rip, & collect for fun, & out of my love for baseball. Thank you very much for all you do with your videos/channel, & the hobby, altogether, it's very much appreciated!! Keep on rippin', my friend!!⚾️💥⚾️💥⚾️💥⚾️
Chrome is flying off the shelf at my local Walmart and Targets. I think people see all the big hits on Reddit and from breakers and feel like they can hit too. But little do they know how bad their odds are.
Retail is just for Base or Refractor hits. I'd recommend if you were trying to complete the Base Set or just looking to rip a few. Otherwise, just buy Hobby's if you have the means. At least you have somewhat of a chance at getting your money back.
Something I've noticed, and i dont think im exaggerating...Topps Chrome released during The National. There were cases and cases ripped that week with MASSIVE Parrallels/Autos. So much so, that I'm conviced alot of the best cards were pulled early. What we are seeing since has been meh. It makes you think, it'd be beneficial for Topps to flood early boxes with massive hits in an attempt to boost the market, what comes later is less than.
It also seems like most of the hobby “influencers” had the boxes with the best hits as well……it was a little odd to me that my hobby & jumbo took almost a month to get to me from fanatics…when I called about it, they claimed it was a supply issue with Topps….basically what I’m thinking is that first initial wave had the best hits, & all of us that had to wait may have dud boxes….with that being said, I’m going to be on the cautious side & keep my boxes sealed…..
Thanks for putting this together, interesting stats on hobby boxes. I like the chrome "monster boxes". From what I've seen so far you more than likely get an auto (pulled one in the box I opened), but the 10 X-fractors in each box is what makes the value. They've been $55 at my LCS, so your mileage may vary for price. All you have to do is pull one decent x-fractor and voila - your monster box $$ back. Odds are still steep though because there are only 10 per box...😀
2022 chrome platinum is better than 2023 Topps Chrome this year. I got 3 hobby boxes and 2 had 2 autographs. Best pulls are Ozzie Smith auto and a Bryson stott autograph. Very good value in chrome platinum this year. Great info, thanks Scotty!
AND the big part of the equation though is no one wants those base cards and inserts. Yeah you can say you will get $20-$30 a box in base and inserts but try selling them! Everyone has them listed and some of the top names like Anthony Volpe chrome RC only sell for $3 shipped! After ebay fees and shipping you would be lucky to make back $5 off a box with base and inserts. Most of the good name inserts as well dont even sell. Acuna titans insert sells for $1.40 shipped! There is just too many and no one wants them and they are for sale for pennies. Topps chrome is a bad rip overall. The price is way too high to justify the content. Should ne like $70 a box. ALSO, You will not and cannot find these anywhere for $150. The average price at card shops and online per hobby box is like $220 per box PLUS tax. Leaving you losing money on 99% of these.
Unless you pre-ordered or were within 10 mins of release, you're paying $200+ for a box so the numbers are quite a bit worse now, especially with the hype of the product losing it's luster, singles are already down, yet box prices stay higher. It's so weird how box price increases as singles prices decrease. Something's got to give at some point, but it won't. I'm holding sealed product instead. Feels like a better bet. Awesome break down, love these videos. Thanks!
Great video! First two or three blasters I opened, done decent to good. Since then, junk. Opened one hobby and done pretty good. But that when they first came out. I think first shipment lutes you in, then they get you. But all products are like that, to me at least. Thanks for sharing!
But boxes were actually affordable back then too. I remember getting a few '18 Optic Megas on clearance from Blowout and I got way more than my money back from those rips. Ohtani and Acuna rookies galore. Wish I would've bought more.
Love the concept per se of Breakers Delight, but is it fair to say that due to the exclusivity of hits in there that it’s watered down retail and hobby for hits?
Love the video. I have probably gotten 10-12 blasters and 1 jumbo and 2 hobby. Pretty similar with 3-4 hits but they are all low level. On my jumbo I pulled a dual auto but it was the KC guys without Witt so still not worth much even though the odds were like 1 out of 72k
Would love to know if the value of the hits tapers off after release. For the past year I’ve been pre-ordering hobby boxes and for the most part would get good hits on release. But I’ve seen the value of the hits seem to diminish a month or so after release. Have anybody else noticed this?
people need to realize this is gambling pure and simple most of us are going to be on the bad/ugly side of opening boxes do it for fun or else its pointless also scottie you forgot the fudge factor for banger boxes and breakers delight boxes that overload hits specifically for influencers and breakers and yes they took those hits from the ENTIRE print pool of topps chrome 2023
I've bought about a dozen blasters and a few mega boxes, and I haven't pulled diddly squat. Maybe it's just a run of bad luck, but I usually have done pretty well in the past. These boxes just seem pretty dry as far as hits.
@@scottiebcards2354 got it i was searching all over for something on jrod and only see how well hes doing haha. awesome work again really enjoy your content.
Oh my, I had the same reaction, I totally misheard you saying "Urias". I was searching the internet for news on my sweet 30/30 man. Thank you for the clarification and the great video!@@scottiebcards2354
Fanatics came up with the best scam ever with the MVP buy back program. This stuff was 20 bucks a blaster forever. Now it’s 35 to 40. And the hobby boxes are 3 times the price with less auto content. They make more money now than ever. Your chances for a buyback are minimal and the low IQ flock to it thinking the buyback is going to save their break! Plus the print run is massive! Fanatics is laughing all the way to the bank. Modern investors are nothing but wax tweakers.
Buy a blaster for $38 (if you're crazy or just plain feeling free spirited that day). Leave it closed. Throw this in the closet with your other blasters. Hope Corbin Carrol or Jordan Walker hits .400 someday. This is my strategy if I were to buy a blaster of this product (which I have no plan of doing). Thank you for a great video.
I bought a hobby box and pulled a Michael Harris Blue Refractor /150 & a Gunnar Henderson Refractor Auto out of /499. I figured I would stop while I was ahead.
I opened 4 hobby and 2 jumbo boxes and it was outright depressing. And in trying to build a set I realized I have about 100 cards where the back doesn't match the front.
Box them up and send them back. I did that with chrome update, a few months went by and they sent me six more boxes all with the same quality control issues 😂😂. I just bought way less product this year, loosing interest with their actions lately.
Ugh, that's pure trash man. Hate to hear that. I didn't get any chrome hobby boxes this year again cause price is sill too high IMO. So I get a few blasters and a monster box instead, and roll the dice. (disclaimer: I don't pay 'big box store prices' for retail stuff at my LCS)
Depressing isn't the word try pissed off. I'm done with buying them as I purchased 4 boxes and didn't get my money's worth. I threw them in a box and put them in the attic. I've had enough. Going back to purchasing singles only the ones I want. Better safe than sorry.
alot of people are going that way i told people like sports card dad etc that people are gonna vote with their wallets if they feel it isnt worth it they will have boxes sitting on shelves doesnt matter how hot a rookie is or how scarce something is @@elizabethwiggins3849
I purchased a jumbo case for 2880. In that case I pulled 2 radiating rookies autos, julio rodriguez ultra violet to 25, adley and corbin bases auto and a Grissom neg refractor Thr one RR was micheal Harris that came back a dual 10 from PSA. Needless to say I'll probably double my money after I receive the rest back from PSA. Oh bought a random hobby box and pulled a volpe gold wave auto to 50. That should grade a double 10 as well
Cool video. Appreciate all of the research you did. Though what did you mean with that ominous brief message about JRod at the end? Haven’t heard any bad news about him?! Some off field issues?
I think it’s a good breakdown. That being said, the excitement is lost when you buy only singles. Ripping boxes and packs is actually fun. Also, sometimes the message from Scottie B is mostly negative. Hopefully he highlights the fun of the hobby at some point.
Thank you for the intelligent breakdown I was looking for. You confirm my assumption that baseball card breaks are scratch-off lotto for baseball fans who think they're not gambling addicts!! 😢
This is a very very cool video and I appreciate your effort and time you put into it! Only thing I will say is that those values can change very quickly especially if you don’t sell right away. And maybe there were guys you didn’t look up but who are actually worth something? Lastly I think you probably have to lower value by at least 30% because cards worth $5 lets say, it’s not worth the effort to sell them especially not many people are buying them. Certainly might not be worth any expense to have them graded. I prefer to buy individual card mainly but sometimes they are irrationally boosted up, so that takes time to find them for the right price. And time is money so there is cost for that effort too.
yeah, this is why its a hobby. Trying to make this a financial business/gain outside of buying a few cards of a player you really believe in is a waste of time.
Great video and research. Would love to compare to SRP or allocation prices per box. The middle man is still eating too much. I would also include and expect PSA 9 prices. I know I grade most of my hits with value for PSA 9 or 10s Cheers.
2 hobby boxes and 6 blasters. Only card worth putting in a mag holder was a Derek Jeter Ultra Violet. A lot of base rookies but overall, nothing else. One Acuna base and no Shohei.
i have always thought chrome was a rip off. you get around 30 cards for 25-35$ almost 1$ a card break down. most of the cards in the set worth less than 10 cents.
Buying singles will always the best way to buy cards. But definitely fun to occasionally rip or break cards. Last year I did not hit anything big on chrome. Chrome will always be my favorite set. This year got lucky and got a few big hits. Bought one jumbo box and basically broke even. That’s a win lol. But on like 9 or 10 random divisional breaks I hit a Judge auto printing plate, Jordan Walker gold auto and a Ohtani gold. So I stopped while I was ahead. I could do 20 more breaks and get nothing. Just part of the hobby. You just have to be realistic and know going into this hobby more times than not you will go for a loss on ripping or breaking cards.
It really is all about what you're looking for. The people who say packs are just a rip off, are almost certainly people looking to flip cards. Packs are for people who enjoy the chase and like a gamble. No one should ever buy packs as a way to make money. If you want to make money off of packs, you leave them sealed and sell them down the road. For me, opening packs is a connection I had with my Father, and I feel close to him today when I open them. we used to buy a box of every release (this was the early to mid junk wax era, so every product was basically 4-5 sets) and build most of a set, then go to card shows or an lcs to search out the cards we needed to finish. They also give me the only shot I have at some really nice stuff. I can afford to spend a couple hundred now and then on a box, looking for fun and joking to hit something nice. But I can't afford to buy the singles of some of the big hits I pulled. Without packs, I wouldn't have my Lou Gehrig quad relic /3, my Luis Robert SC Chrome Gold rookie auto /50 or my 2019 Series Two Tatis fathers day blue /50, among a few others. When I buy singles, it is either a rookie of players who were Yankees from 96-2000, Nolan Ryan, Don Mattingly or Aaron Judge.
I’ve been buying singles lately but if you never take a chance you’ll never score a big hit. If I do open any wax it’s going to be hobby boxes and not retail.
i always get excited for chrome, but then i see all the low low level autos and it quickly loses its appeal. blasters are sitting at my target and walmart.
You also can't forget that 2023 Chrome is printed to the moon and back, so only the numbered stuff has much of a chance of holding value in the future...
Numbered stuff, base autos of some of the rookies and some of the rookie refractors/prisms that grade well will have future value. And maybe years down the line, if one of the rookies is now an established superstar, their base rookies will have fairly decent value raw, or graded. Nothing huge, but its not unreasonable to think, if he became a superstar, that a Volpe base rookie might reach $25+ in value. Of course, like I said, this is years down the line.
@@snerdterguson The problem is that if there are a million Volpe base rookies and everybody has 3 of them, the value can't rise all that much. I think we are definitely in a junk era for base. I can't see the base being more than a few dollars down the road. That's just my thoughts based being in the hobby since the 80's and seeing the similarities to today.
@@tonyhamilton9764 the print runs haven’t even approached the junk wax era level. It’s too much, yes. But modern cards have already reached those levels. Cards from 2018-2019 sell for $25. I’m only saying if he’s a superstar. Acuna, Shohei, Judge. The guys who carry value despite print runs. Even cards from the era where literally millions upon millions were printed sell for $5-$10 in some cases.
@@snerdterguson I just disagree. Print runs have doubled since 2017. So, yes, there might be some value there, the 2023 base cards have little chance of holding much value.
@@tonyhamilton9764 again. This is still nowhere close to the print runs in the junk wax era. So the fear that they’ll be valueless I think is unwarranted. And The cards from those sets reached well over $25. Even getting over $50. It isn’t at all a stretch to think a card could get to half of that. I’m not saying it happens. Need a transcendent player who is popular in the hobby. But if one of them is the next Acuna, the cards will get around $25 or more and be able to maintain value. They printed a crap ton of Bowman last year, didn’t stop Elly Chrome Firsts from selling for a good price.
If you truly love the hobby then you must understand its all about that chase. Buy the cards you want i get it but exploring the unknown is part of our humanity
But he DID miss a month and a half. And there's other factors as well. He's on the Rangers. No disrespect to them, but outside of Nolan Ryan, there aren't many Rangers who really move the needle in the hobby. So if it is a close choice between him and say, a Yankee, Met, Red Sox, etc... He probably gets left behind. I don't know that much about him, so maybe this isn't relevant. But age is a factor as well. A 20 year old rookie will almost always have better appeal than a 25 year old rookie. Except in special circumstances like when the 25 year old rookie is Aaron Judge. I believe he also is basing a lot on value, and maybe Jungs value doesn't crack the top ten. Not sure though.
This is such an easy problem to fix. Take all the autos and patches you put into BS products like Sonic, Pristine, Chrome Black, A&G, Tribute, Inception, and Triple Threads and load up your flagship products (series 1,2, Update, and Chrome). Stick to your flagship products and keep definitive and Transcendent as your high end products.
You're confusing what is smart for them. People are buying their products. They are profiting, and that is their goal. If their goal was to make minimal profit but stop mean comments on the internet, then it would be the smart move to get rid of all but like 3 products.
@@snerdterguson hey, remember how much money card companies lost in the late 90's and early 2000's due to their own actions? If a restaurant decided to cheap out on ingredients to increase profit, less people are going to eat there. Look at Panini, they got greedy, pissed off customers, and now a better company is dominating them. When customers lose faith in retail wax, bad things happen and that is exactly what Topps has done in the last year. Just like Panini, they load up the hobby boxes, strip retail of anything good in the product, and fire up the printers with terrible QC
@@tedjerdee1028 the junk wax era blew up because of print runs, not variety of products. If you want to say over printing is stupid, I agree. There’s short term benefit but long term it won’t work out. But having a variety isn’t a problem at all. The flagship rookies and bowman firsts are still the ones people want most, so there being multiple other rookie cards in other products, it doesn’t actually impact the values of the flagship ones. And as far as print runs, while much higher than the past 10-15 years, are nowhere near junk wax era levels.
@@snerdterguson I agree, people tend to focus on the flagship products but those flagship products have been getting worst and worst. People are tired of pulling napkin patches out of $250 hobby boxes, waiting a year plus for a redemption, or having products flooded with BS rookie autos that will never sniff the big leagues. Both those problems can be solved by allocating more resources towards those flagship products instead of products that no one really cares about anyway and don't hold much market value. From watching hours and hours of breaks over the years, it's a joke how bad their flagship products are compared to a few years ago. In the one break, you'll get the same no name autos repeatedly because they want to spread the top rookie hits across 15 different products
Not sure where you can find a hobby box for $150. When I search, I see an average of $225, which is much worse. Lots of hype, always less than cost in return.
For everyone saying it’s all a scam/ripoff: “A -- like me man, I love the game.. I love the hustle... Man I be feeling like one of them ball player --s, you know?”
The prices are far too volatile to say "this card is worth $X". Ebay comps are only a guide and fluctuate wildly for new cards. By the time you completed this, your numbers were already off.
So you're telling me there's a chance? 🤔 But yeah, going into Chrome, I think people are better off getting the singles at this point, especially since a bunch of superfractors have been pulled too
I made off like a bandit but I also got very lucky. I hit a super Ashcraft auto hit Kerry carpenter orange auto and gold steer orange auto and some other good stuff buy I’m sure I’m in the minority.
The blasters have been LOADED I pulled a Oswald peraza 1/1 superfractor Corbin Carroll auto, Brett Batty auto, Jeter Downs auto, ultra violet Riley green and Adley, numerous low # refractors of Adley, Carroll, etc, and like 20 base ohtani and Acuna and multiple refactors of each. The megas have been garbage for the most part
Wow I’ve pulled more than some of those out of a couple blasters. All of it’s a scam tho. The number of cards that are not worth the paper they are printed on is ridiculous.
The blasters are most popular for a reason. The buyback program makes the blasters a good option. I can buy a blaster for $30-$35 and one ohtani pays for more than half the box. Same with acuna or maybe even mookie. The hobby formats are scams though.
A product that is a terrible scam/ rip-off is 2023 Bowman Chrome. For $300 at the least for the hobby and $400 for the HTA, you are maybe getting 100$ if you are lucky. Horrendous boxes from what I have seen.
Or, like me you can break 10 blaster boxes that cost over $375 and only get 2 Ohtani cards and several numbered no name parallel cards and $3-$5 autograph cards .. then you feel really ripped off
@@TADDs101 That is tough luck man. I have gotten very lucky with pulling acunas/Ohtanis almost every other box. I know what you mean about the trash cards though. Worthless numbered cards and 1$ autos. Horrendous product at times.
I think its a safe assumption that when you rip wax your expectation should be to loose. You are gambling. Thats what wax is. If you want to invest it is always better to buy single cards you want and then do with that (grade, flip etc). Some products are a better value like this years Topps Chrome where the NBA Spectra is $800 a box and the top hit don't even come close to paying off a box. Widely known as a terrible gamble. So yes, there is good and bad wax, but all wax is a gamble and like casinos, the card companies are not making products where everyone will be a winner.
At the end of this video I mention Julio Urias as another player you should avoid. By mistake I either said Julio Rodriguez or it sounded like Julio Rodriguez. That was in reference to Julio Urias who was arrested for felony domestic violence.
I've always said 70-80% of value on a new box is what should be expected. Ideally, the boxes appreciate in value overtime due to rookies developing and becoming stars and being available in sealed product. This breakdown screams to buy sealed product and hold it based on these numbers. Corbin, Adley, Volpe and the rest of the class should raise the floor price on this product. Thanks for sharing Scottie.
Every single product is a scam/rip off, dont waste your money just buy the card you want instead.....
Someone has to open the packs so we can buy the singles!
Agreed man..I don’t waste money on boxes of card’s anymore that I just end up throwing in a box and put them back n a closet.Only buy singles and players I PC now.
See I usually have that mindset too. But I have a lot of fun ripping boxes, and every time I start to get disenchanted and realize it’s a rip off..I pull some fire and I’m hooked again 😂
Sounds like you’ve never heard of 2022 Chrome Platinum Anniversary
@@LaTortugaCardsthat product is junk. The platinum anniversary singles lose value so quickly.
Awesome video, my friend, thank you for breakin' it down! I'm kicking the crap out of the odds, on hits & autos, for '23 TOPPS CHROME BASEBALL. I've only purchased blasters, & mega boxes, and am averaging just over 1 auto per box, & a crapload of numbered parallels, good inserts, etc. I never look at collecting from a monetary standpoint, I rip, & collect for fun, & out of my love for baseball. Thank you very much for all you do with your videos/channel, & the hobby, altogether, it's very much appreciated!! Keep on rippin', my friend!!⚾️💥⚾️💥⚾️💥⚾️
Bro, you put so much time into this series! You’re the man!
Chrome is flying off the shelf at my local Walmart and Targets. I think people see all the big hits on Reddit and from breakers and feel like they can hit too. But little do they know how bad their odds are.
So you’re saying there’s a chance?!
Opposite at my Walmart. Still the same Chrome mega boxes that got set up day 1 and a few blasters have sold
Have never seen a baseball or football box in my local store. Stopped looking since it’s never there
I can't believe they're going for going for $40 now. I'd swear those retail blasters were $19.99 not so many years ago.
Retail is just for Base or Refractor hits. I'd recommend if you were trying to complete the Base Set or just looking to rip a few. Otherwise, just buy Hobby's if you have the means. At least you have somewhat of a chance at getting your money back.
Something I've noticed, and i dont think im exaggerating...Topps Chrome released during The National. There were cases and cases ripped that week with MASSIVE Parrallels/Autos. So much so, that I'm conviced alot of the best cards were pulled early. What we are seeing since has been meh. It makes you think, it'd be beneficial for Topps to flood early boxes with massive hits in an attempt to boost the market, what comes later is less than.
EXACTLY what they do, not hard to figure it out
It also seems like most of the hobby “influencers” had the boxes with the best hits as well……it was a little odd to me that my hobby & jumbo took almost a month to get to me from fanatics…when I called about it, they claimed it was a supply issue with Topps….basically what I’m thinking is that first initial wave had the best hits, & all of us that had to wait may have dud boxes….with that being said, I’m going to be on the cautious side & keep my boxes sealed…..
Would love to see a video of what you could/would buy in '23 Chrome singles for $17k as a comparison.
Thanks for putting this together, interesting stats on hobby boxes. I like the chrome "monster boxes". From what I've seen so far you more than likely get an auto (pulled one in the box I opened), but the 10 X-fractors in each box is what makes the value. They've been $55 at my LCS, so your mileage may vary for price. All you have to do is pull one decent x-fractor and voila - your monster box $$ back. Odds are still steep though because there are only 10 per box...😀
2022 chrome platinum is better than 2023 Topps Chrome this year. I got 3 hobby boxes and 2 had 2 autographs. Best pulls are Ozzie Smith auto and a Bryson stott autograph. Very good value in chrome platinum this year. Great info, thanks Scotty!
AND the big part of the equation though is no one wants those base cards and inserts. Yeah you can say you will get $20-$30 a box in base and inserts but try selling them! Everyone has them listed and some of the top names like Anthony Volpe chrome RC only sell for $3 shipped! After ebay fees and shipping you would be lucky to make back $5 off a box with base and inserts.
Most of the good name inserts as well dont even sell. Acuna titans insert sells for $1.40 shipped! There is just too many and no one wants them and they are for sale for pennies. Topps chrome is a bad rip overall.
The price is way too high to justify the content. Should ne like $70 a box. ALSO, You will not and cannot find these anywhere for $150. The average price at card shops and online per hobby box is like $220 per box PLUS tax. Leaving you losing money on 99% of these.
Great job SB! You out do much work into these shows and I hope you don’t get tired of doing this. Keep up the great work! A+ grade today.
108 breaks!! Nice sample size Scott & thanks for spending your valuable time to help us collectors
Outstanding content. Keep up the great work! You are much appreciated 🙏
Great video! What did Julio Rodriguez get in trouble for?
If you love relief pitcher autos this product is for you! 😊
Or bum ass 28 year old rookies autos
I'd rather have numbered
Unless you pre-ordered or were within 10 mins of release, you're paying $200+ for a box so the numbers are quite a bit worse now, especially with the hype of the product losing it's luster, singles are already down, yet box prices stay higher. It's so weird how box price increases as singles prices decrease. Something's got to give at some point, but it won't. I'm holding sealed product instead. Feels like a better bet.
Awesome break down, love these videos. Thanks!
Great research! I don't collect too much baseball but love the effort you put into these vids
Great video! First two or three blasters I opened, done decent to good. Since then, junk. Opened one hobby and done pretty good. But that when they first came out. I think first shipment lutes you in, then they get you. But all products are like that, to me at least. Thanks for sharing!
While other people were ripping boxes to find Ohtani in 2018. I just bought Ohtani. Worked out nicely.
and ohthani wont ever pitch again at that level cards are going to go down he still has value but diminished in roi
But boxes were actually affordable back then too. I remember getting a few '18 Optic Megas on clearance from Blowout and I got way more than my money back from those rips. Ohtani and Acuna rookies galore. Wish I would've bought more.
Still have 18 Chrome Jumbo sealed
hard to have diamond hands tbh
@@chrisc4264
@@vendora1Interesting theory. His first Bowman tripled in value this year. Thanks. Bye.
Buy singles! (and the occasional box or pack to satisfy that lottery ticket urge)
thats how i do it
I just bought my last cosmic box for $450 and no more from now on
This is solid content. Thank you for the info and I'd love to see more videos like this using different products.
Love the concept per se of Breakers Delight, but is it fair to say that due to the exclusivity of hits in there that it’s watered down retail and hobby for hits?
Love the video. I have probably gotten 10-12 blasters and 1 jumbo and 2 hobby. Pretty similar with 3-4 hits but they are all low level. On my jumbo I pulled a dual auto but it was the KC guys without Witt so still not worth much even though the odds were like 1 out of 72k
Appreciate these videos. I know it killed you having to use Acuna as the MVP buyback instead of Mookie 😅
Would love to know if the value of the hits tapers off after release. For the past year I’ve been pre-ordering hobby boxes and for the most part would get good hits on release. But I’ve seen the value of the hits seem to diminish a month or so after release. Have anybody else noticed this?
people need to realize this is gambling pure and simple most of us are going to be on the bad/ugly side of opening boxes do it for fun or else its pointless also scottie you forgot the fudge factor for banger boxes and breakers delight boxes that overload hits specifically for influencers and breakers and yes they took those hits from the ENTIRE print pool of topps chrome 2023
Topps chrome has NEVER got me a good hit. Its the home of the rookie pitcher that is getting called down next week.
I just bought blaster boxes this year. I think you get a better value over all. Thanks for sharing Scottie!
I've bought about a dozen blasters and a few mega boxes, and I haven't pulled diddly squat. Maybe it's just a run of bad luck, but I usually have done pretty well in the past. These boxes just seem pretty dry as far as hits.
It’s all a rip off. Buy a few singles for the fun of it. Let someone else waste money on boxes.
why was julio rodriguez mentioned in the same sentence as wander franco? did he really say you w9ouldnt want a jrod parallel? just curious.
I meant ironed Julio Urias. He just got arrested a second time for felony domestic violence.
@@scottiebcards2354 got it i was searching all over for something on jrod and only see how well hes doing haha. awesome work again really enjoy your content.
Oh my, I had the same reaction, I totally misheard you saying "Urias". I was searching the internet for news on my sweet 30/30 man. Thank you for the clarification and the great video!@@scottiebcards2354
What is your assessment of 2022 Topps Chrome Platinum value?
Fanatics came up with the best scam ever with the MVP buy back program. This stuff was 20 bucks a blaster forever. Now it’s 35 to 40. And the hobby boxes are 3 times the price with less auto content. They make more money now than ever. Your chances for a buyback are minimal and the low IQ flock to it thinking the buyback is going to save their break! Plus the print run is massive! Fanatics is laughing all the way to the bank. Modern investors are nothing but wax tweakers.
Buy a blaster for $38 (if you're crazy or just plain feeling free spirited that day). Leave it closed. Throw this in the closet with your other blasters. Hope Corbin Carrol or Jordan Walker hits .400 someday. This is my strategy if I were to buy a blaster of this product (which I have no plan of doing). Thank you for a great video.
I bought a hobby box and pulled a Michael Harris Blue Refractor /150 & a Gunnar Henderson Refractor Auto out of /499. I figured I would stop while I was ahead.
Is this why they call it ripping cards? Because it's a rip off?
#DadJokes
Now these boxes can’t be had for under $200 basically they’re 225/box. Cool video.
I opened 4 hobby and 2 jumbo boxes and it was outright depressing. And in trying to build a set I realized I have about 100 cards where the back doesn't match the front.
they had that issue in pristine too just shows they dont care about qc
Box them up and send them back. I did that with chrome update, a few months went by and they sent me six more boxes all with the same quality control issues 😂😂. I just bought way less product this year, loosing interest with their actions lately.
Ugh, that's pure trash man. Hate to hear that. I didn't get any chrome hobby boxes this year again cause price is sill too high IMO. So I get a few blasters and a monster box instead, and roll the dice. (disclaimer: I don't pay 'big box store prices' for retail stuff at my LCS)
Depressing isn't the word try pissed off. I'm done with buying them as I purchased 4 boxes and didn't get my money's worth. I threw them in a box and put them in the attic. I've had enough. Going back to purchasing singles only the ones I want. Better safe than sorry.
alot of people are going that way i told people like sports card dad etc that people are gonna vote with their wallets if they feel it isnt worth it they will have boxes sitting on shelves doesnt matter how hot a rookie is or how scarce something is @@elizabethwiggins3849
I purchased a jumbo case for 2880. In that case I pulled 2 radiating rookies autos, julio rodriguez ultra violet to 25, adley and corbin bases auto and a Grissom neg refractor
Thr one RR was micheal Harris that came back a dual 10 from PSA. Needless to say I'll probably double my money after I receive the rest back from PSA. Oh bought a random hobby box and pulled a volpe gold wave auto to 50. That should grade a double 10 as well
You’re the 1%, congrats
Congrats, your Killin it!
You HIT THE LOTTERY !
This is an absolute great rip. Blasters are especially fun as you will see Autos and numbered cards. Not sure the value is amazing but its alot of fun
Cool video. Appreciate all of the research you did.
Though what did you mean with that ominous brief message about JRod at the end? Haven’t heard any bad news about him?! Some off field issues?
Think he meant Julio Urias
@@SticksNBatsthanks! I gotta listen more carefully
I think it’s a good breakdown. That being said, the excitement is lost when you buy only singles. Ripping boxes and packs is actually fun.
Also, sometimes the message from Scottie B is mostly negative. Hopefully he highlights the fun of the hobby at some point.
Absolute outstanding video!! keep up the great work!!!!
I’ve opened a hobby, Jumbo, and 8 blasters and pulled 0 Ohtani cards. Is the print run shorter for Ohtani?🤔
What about hidden gems? Is that a base insert?
Are you planning on doing the same AMAZING analysis for 2023 Topps Chrome Jumbo boxes? Great video, Scottie!
Thank you for the intelligent breakdown I was looking for.
You confirm my assumption that baseball card breaks are scratch-off lotto for baseball fans who think they're not gambling addicts!!
😢
What a great analysis. Thank you for taking the time to do the research.
This is a very very cool video and I appreciate your effort and time you put into it! Only thing I will say is that those values can change very quickly especially if you don’t sell right away. And maybe there were guys you didn’t look up but who are actually worth something? Lastly I think you probably have to lower value by at least 30% because cards worth $5 lets say, it’s not worth the effort to sell them especially not many people are buying them. Certainly might not be worth any expense to have them graded. I prefer to buy individual card mainly but sometimes they are irrationally boosted up, so that takes time to find them for the right price. And time is money so there is cost for that effort too.
yeah, this is why its a hobby. Trying to make this a financial business/gain outside of buying a few cards of a player you really believe in is a waste of time.
Great video and research.
Would love to compare to SRP or allocation prices per box. The middle man is still eating too much.
I would also include and expect PSA 9 prices. I know I grade most of my hits with value for PSA 9 or 10s
Cheers.
I thought it would be worse…I always assume EV from Topps boxes these days is 30%…good job love this stuff…
2 hobby boxes and 6 blasters. Only card worth putting in a mag holder was a Derek Jeter Ultra Violet. A lot of base rookies but overall, nothing else. One Acuna base and no Shohei.
I really appreciate you breaking down these numbers
That list of top rookie autos is eye opening. Great video.
Excellent breakdown. Thanks Scottie
Thanks for the hard work. I appreciate it but too lazy to do it myself
I bought one break spot and was disappointed, again, with the card cut centering just like last season.
Love this kind of content!
Very cool breakdown. I can only imagine how time consuming this was.
Lol it sells for 220 now people are addicted value doesnt matter the hobby is probably 90% addicts throwing money away because they cant help it
amazing research! thanks for the breakdown
i have always thought chrome was a rip off. you get around 30 cards for 25-35$ almost 1$ a card break down. most of the cards in the set worth less than 10 cents.
Buying singles will always the best way to buy cards. But definitely fun to occasionally rip or break cards. Last year I did not hit anything big on chrome. Chrome will always be my favorite set. This year got lucky and got a few big hits. Bought one jumbo box and basically broke even. That’s a win lol. But on like 9 or 10 random divisional breaks I hit a Judge auto printing plate, Jordan Walker gold auto and a Ohtani gold. So I stopped while I was ahead. I could do 20 more breaks and get nothing. Just part of the hobby. You just have to be realistic and know going into this hobby more times than not you will go for a loss on ripping or breaking cards.
It really is all about what you're looking for. The people who say packs are just a rip off, are almost certainly people looking to flip cards. Packs are for people who enjoy the chase and like a gamble. No one should ever buy packs as a way to make money. If you want to make money off of packs, you leave them sealed and sell them down the road.
For me, opening packs is a connection I had with my Father, and I feel close to him today when I open them. we used to buy a box of every release (this was the early to mid junk wax era, so every product was basically 4-5 sets) and build most of a set, then go to card shows or an lcs to search out the cards we needed to finish.
They also give me the only shot I have at some really nice stuff. I can afford to spend a couple hundred now and then on a box, looking for fun and joking to hit something nice. But I can't afford to buy the singles of some of the big hits I pulled. Without packs, I wouldn't have my Lou Gehrig quad relic /3, my Luis Robert SC Chrome Gold rookie auto /50 or my 2019 Series Two Tatis fathers day blue /50, among a few others.
When I buy singles, it is either a rookie of players who were Yankees from 96-2000, Nolan Ryan, Don Mattingly or Aaron Judge.
@@snerdterguson buying singles is a gamble as well, but its a longer time horizon
You do amazing work thank you!
Excellent work. Thank you.
I’ve been buying singles lately but if you never take a chance you’ll never score a big hit. If I do open any wax it’s going to be hobby boxes and not retail.
I stopped buying anything past 2020 Topps....the print runs after that are too high and if anyone has these they better sell NOW!
I bought a blaster at my Walmart and got a Volpe auto out of 99. I'm usually not that lucky and neither is America apparently.
I know chances are low but I actually bought one box and got a Volpe auto and Derek Jeter hidden gems! Yankees box forsure!
i always get excited for chrome, but then i see all the low low level autos and it quickly loses its appeal. blasters are sitting at my target and walmart.
I was disappointed in the blaster box and $39.98 was way too expensive for no hits
Great video, thanks!
Man i have 3 hobby boxes. Been ripping blasters.
You should do videos on new products that contain new rookies that weren't previously found in prior releases
The one I know is, and I'm blanking on the name, the kid with Cincinnati. His first RC is in Cosmic Chrome.
You also can't forget that 2023 Chrome is printed to the moon and back, so only the numbered stuff has much of a chance of holding value in the future...
Numbered stuff, base autos of some of the rookies and some of the rookie refractors/prisms that grade well will have future value. And maybe years down the line, if one of the rookies is now an established superstar, their base rookies will have fairly decent value raw, or graded. Nothing huge, but its not unreasonable to think, if he became a superstar, that a Volpe base rookie might reach $25+ in value. Of course, like I said, this is years down the line.
@@snerdterguson The problem is that if there are a million Volpe base rookies and everybody has 3 of them, the value can't rise all that much. I think we are definitely in a junk era for base. I can't see the base being more than a few dollars down the road. That's just my thoughts based being in the hobby since the 80's and seeing the similarities to today.
@@tonyhamilton9764 the print runs haven’t even approached the junk wax era level. It’s too much, yes. But modern cards have already reached those levels. Cards from 2018-2019 sell for $25. I’m only saying if he’s a superstar. Acuna, Shohei, Judge. The guys who carry value despite print runs. Even cards from the era where literally millions upon millions were printed sell for $5-$10 in some cases.
@@snerdterguson I just disagree. Print runs have doubled since 2017. So, yes, there might be some value there, the 2023 base cards have little chance of holding much value.
@@tonyhamilton9764 again. This is still nowhere close to the print runs in the junk wax era. So the fear that they’ll be valueless I think is unwarranted. And The cards from those sets reached well over $25. Even getting over $50. It isn’t at all a stretch to think a card could get to half of that. I’m not saying it happens. Need a transcendent player who is popular in the hobby. But if one of them is the next Acuna, the cards will get around $25 or more and be able to maintain value. They printed a crap ton of Bowman last year, didn’t stop Elly Chrome Firsts from selling for a good price.
Do one for bowman next
If you truly love the hobby then you must understand its all about that chase. Buy the cards you want i get it but exploring the unknown is part of our humanity
Jung not in your top 10 rookie list? 😮. ROY if not injured final month and a half but didn’t make the cut.
But he DID miss a month and a half. And there's other factors as well. He's on the Rangers. No disrespect to them, but outside of Nolan Ryan, there aren't many Rangers who really move the needle in the hobby. So if it is a close choice between him and say, a Yankee, Met, Red Sox, etc... He probably gets left behind.
I don't know that much about him, so maybe this isn't relevant. But age is a factor as well. A 20 year old rookie will almost always have better appeal than a 25 year old rookie. Except in special circumstances like when the 25 year old rookie is Aaron Judge.
I believe he also is basing a lot on value, and maybe Jungs value doesn't crack the top ten. Not sure though.
Yeah, I agree. That's crazy.
This is such an easy problem to fix. Take all the autos and patches you put into BS products like Sonic, Pristine, Chrome Black, A&G, Tribute, Inception, and Triple Threads and load up your flagship products (series 1,2, Update, and Chrome). Stick to your flagship products and keep definitive and Transcendent as your high end products.
you are expecting them to be smart lolol
You're confusing what is smart for them. People are buying their products. They are profiting, and that is their goal. If their goal was to make minimal profit but stop mean comments on the internet, then it would be the smart move to get rid of all but like 3 products.
@@snerdterguson hey, remember how much money card companies lost in the late 90's and early 2000's due to their own actions? If a restaurant decided to cheap out on ingredients to increase profit, less people are going to eat there. Look at Panini, they got greedy, pissed off customers, and now a better company is dominating them. When customers lose faith in retail wax, bad things happen and that is exactly what Topps has done in the last year. Just like Panini, they load up the hobby boxes, strip retail of anything good in the product, and fire up the printers with terrible QC
@@tedjerdee1028 the junk wax era blew up because of print runs, not variety of products. If you want to say over printing is stupid, I agree. There’s short term benefit but long term it won’t work out. But having a variety isn’t a problem at all. The flagship rookies and bowman firsts are still the ones people want most, so there being multiple other rookie cards in other products, it doesn’t actually impact the values of the flagship ones.
And as far as print runs, while much higher than the past 10-15 years, are nowhere near junk wax era levels.
@@snerdterguson I agree, people tend to focus on the flagship products but those flagship products have been getting worst and worst. People are tired of pulling napkin patches out of $250 hobby boxes, waiting a year plus for a redemption, or having products flooded with BS rookie autos that will never sniff the big leagues. Both those problems can be solved by allocating more resources towards those flagship products instead of products that no one really cares about anyway and don't hold much market value. From watching hours and hours of breaks over the years, it's a joke how bad their flagship products are compared to a few years ago. In the one break, you'll get the same no name autos repeatedly because they want to spread the top rookie hits across 15 different products
Not sure where you can find a hobby box for $150. When I search, I see an average of $225, which is much worse. Lots of hype, always less than cost in return.
For everyone saying it’s all a scam/ripoff:
“A -- like me man, I love the game.. I love the hustle... Man I be feeling like one of them ball player --s, you know?”
first one to tell me where this is from will get a FREE random Mark McGwire baseball card ^^
The prices are far too volatile to say "this card is worth $X". Ebay comps are only a guide and fluctuate wildly for new cards. By the time you completed this, your numbers were already off.
So you're telling me there's a chance? 🤔
But yeah, going into Chrome, I think people are better off getting the singles at this point, especially since a bunch of superfractors have been pulled too
I made off like a bandit but I also got very lucky. I hit a super Ashcraft auto hit Kerry carpenter orange auto and gold steer orange auto and some other good stuff buy I’m sure I’m in the minority.
I love topps chrome but they are everywhere.. they printed these like no tomorrow
And this is exactly why I buy singles
What’s in the box? About $7 worth of value.
this is a cool idea
The blasters have been LOADED I pulled a Oswald peraza 1/1 superfractor Corbin Carroll auto, Brett Batty auto, Jeter Downs auto, ultra violet Riley green and Adley, numerous low # refractors of Adley, Carroll, etc, and like 20 base ohtani and Acuna and multiple refactors of each. The megas have been garbage for the most part
Wow I’ve pulled more than some of those out of a couple blasters. All of it’s a scam tho. The number of cards that are not worth the paper they are printed on is ridiculous.
Don’t buy retail unless you like getting trash. Do not waste your money it sux huge balls.
I’m seriously done giving them my money. I’ll just snipe what I want from eBay from now on
The blasters are most popular for a reason. The buyback program makes the blasters a good option. I can buy a blaster for $30-$35 and one ohtani pays for more than half the box. Same with acuna or maybe even mookie. The hobby formats are scams though.
A product that is a terrible scam/ rip-off is 2023 Bowman Chrome. For $300 at the least for the hobby and $400 for the HTA, you are maybe getting 100$ if you are lucky. Horrendous boxes from what I have seen.
Or, like me you can break 10 blaster boxes that cost over $375 and only get 2 Ohtani cards and several numbered no name parallel cards and $3-$5 autograph cards .. then you feel really ripped off
@@TADDs101 That is tough luck man. I have gotten very lucky with pulling acunas/Ohtanis almost every other box. I know what you mean about the trash cards though. Worthless numbered cards and 1$ autos. Horrendous product at times.
I wonder why no one really brings up the poor quality in some of these and other Topps products lately. I mean sometimes it's beyond ridiculous.
I think its a safe assumption that when you rip wax your expectation should be to loose. You are gambling. Thats what wax is. If you want to invest it is always better to buy single cards you want and then do with that (grade, flip etc). Some products are a better value like this years Topps Chrome where the NBA Spectra is $800 a box and the top hit don't even come close to paying off a box. Widely known as a terrible gamble. So yes, there is good and bad wax, but all wax is a gamble and like casinos, the card companies are not making products where everyone will be a winner.
Damn Michael harris is the 9th best rookie card? That's stupid! He's the best or second best player in the Rookie pool.
Chrome is rough!!👍😎
Nobody is getting these boxes at $150 anymore...ebay or LCS is more like $220
Is Ohtani still going to win AL MVP?
Yes
Seager?
I only had to open one box to know it was a rip off