One thing I think is crazy is that we have record low unemployment and yet food banks are screaming that they have all time highs in people visiting and donations drying up. It’s like people have jobs but they can’t eat.
I think you hit a good marker here for desperation in the economy. If people are working full time (or more) and still having to supplement with the food bank.... you have a HUGE issue.
Guys… long term watcher. This was one of your best episodes yet. Well done. Boomer, yes, great time to pivot mentally and start to get greedy. Bear markets are not great for older people. They are wonderful for young investors (who are just getting started). You get rich by buying low and selling high. Investors are getting their buy low opportunity. But will their brain ‘win out’ over their gut? Also, don’t go all in. Markets will likely go lower. So scale in. And train your brain to hope for lower price. What do you do when your favourite groceries go on sale?
Construction and Real Estate make up over 1/5th of GDP. Interest rates go up, construction stops, construction workers lose their jobs, they eat in to save money leading restaurants to lose customers, and go bankrupt. Banks suffer losses from bad loans distributed to zombie companies which lead to more employee cuts. The entire consumer sector will take a massive hit. A drop in consumer spending and a rise in interest rates will collapse stock prices due to lower revenue + the massive amount of cheap money they borrowed to buy back stock is now not so cheap. This is a cascading effect that takes time to play out. Thanks for calling it like it is guys!
‹Spot on ! our main focus right now should be on strategies to maneuver our current situation, lots of folks are making millions off this downmarket but such info doesn't make it to the news..
well the top players and pros have exclusive information and data trajectory that isn't disclosed to the public, knowing the strategies to apply in this time is one thing and having the right info to successfully pull it off is just another.
I agree, that's the more reason I prefer my day to day invt decisions being guided by a invt-coach, seeing that their entire skillset is built around going long and short at the same time both employing risk for its asymmetrical upside and laying off risk as a hedge against the inevitable downward turns, coupled with the exclusive information/analysis they have, it's near impossible to not out-perform, been using an invt-coach for over 2years+ and I've netted over 1.5million
@@Crazytoken908 I guess that's why the demand for investment-advisers sky-rocketed by over 41.8% since the pandemic according to investopedia , Nevertheless do recommend the advisor that aided you
Decades of fiscal spending going towards unproductive purposes and monetary policy that did not incentivize an expansion of the private sector's productive capacity. Discount rates are going higher and a lot will realize that present values need to reflect discounted future cash flows, based on a REASONABLE rate of return.
A nice macro picture of the times from the Loonies, enjoyed it a lot. Only thing missing maybe was some comments on the gift that keeps giving, but for how long, i.e. the printing press as seen lately in UK and Germany. Anyway happy anniversary and long life for the Loonies, enjoy your get together at Montreal's Hockey Hall of Fame in Toronto.
• Slow Sell stage • Denial stage • Panic stage • Capitulation stage • Foreclosures stage • And finally, the Meltdown stage Count down to Real Estate CRASH in Canada
Forgot to add in where increased immigration brings in new buyers with cash to scoop up homes…. We have very aggressive immigration targets and this isn’t illegal migration like the US southern border. Canadian immigration attracts people who are highly skilled, educated and have proof of $$$ in their accounts. They need places to live and want to buy homes. With already a shortage of housing for Canadians already here, immigration further puts in a nice floor. Keep waiting in that crash though.
@@steveshideler1333 They aren't even coming close to meeting immigration targets and Canada is experiencing the largest exodus since the 70s. Not to mention Chinas economy is diving and Chinese investors may consider offloading some Canadian investments to make up for losses back home. Also , new law January 1st on foreign ownership in Canada. Also, Canada is losing its reputation amongst the world's best and brightest. But yeah keep believing in the utopia.
As usual great content, fun and informative. I tell people about the channel all the time but it's hard to convince people to commit an hour to something they know virtually sh*t about. IMO you need to start generating "Shorts" of key bites from each episode because that 1-2min clip is what will draw people in and a heck of a lot easier to share with friends and family to get them involved. Right now I send it out and have to say "OK fast forward to 20:53, you've got to hear this"...having "Shorts" would fix that. Just a thought but again a huge thank you for the content and all the very best to the entire team.
Most sellers have no clue about macro economics. They are waiting for Spring believing that prices will rise again by then. That is the reason inventory is so low right now.
125 BPS minimum rate hike by end of 2022, plus a deep recession and we'll be back to 2017 prices for detached homes in Southern Ontario by end of 2023. Good luck to all the over-leveraged, negative cash flowing, and underwater speculators 🤭
@@bonniejohnson1518 Agreed. ZIRP for a decade has created a delusional residential real estate society. Those who got greedy and overleveraged and used their home as an ATM, they're going to have an interesting decade to say the least.
I agree with Rich - the riskiest bubble is in the bond market. If rates continue going up, some bondholders are going to lose their entire capital investment. I see it as a much higher risk than equities. Increasingly high interest rates and a recession is a bad combination for bondholders. And that’s why everyone should be well diversified!
Could Keith or Rich go a bit more in depth on their thoughts about a potential bottoming in the coming “few months” ? Only curious because we haven’t really seen interest rate hikes take effect yet, also we are potentially at the start of an earnings recession, increase in unemployment which I would assume could have lasting negative effects on equities? Thanks for all your guys work, long time listener and congrats on the one year!
Prices on homes equalize on replacement value as well. Inventories may stay low with higher rates and higher prices on the materials it takes to build. I wouldn't build anything leaning into an increasing rate hike environment and a recession in view.
So if we wait another couple months we can lock in GICs around 6% for 10 years, sound like a good move to you guys if your late 30s? Also the overnight rate is traditionally 3% over prime rate, anyone know why it’s only 2.45%? Would you expect the prom rate to increase in tandem with hikes here on out?
Scotiabank stock is currently yielding over 6%. Over 10 years it will likely increase, along with the stock price. The dividend is also taxed at a lower rate than a GIC.
I just went for another mortgage. No dice. Good credit, 20% down, equity in another property, no debts aside from my current property etc. 2020 earnings (COVID) held me back. Lenders are absolutely tightening.
I don't understand why the US dollar is rising if both Japan and China are selling US treasuries? Shouldn't that cause the US dollar to slide/decrease in value?
Hundreds of thousands of immigrants arriving each year. Immigrants have under $50000 on average when they arrive and take over 10 years to earn the average income for the area they settle in. Millions of the baby boomer generation have already died and this will increase drastically over the upcoming years as they have mostly retired and live off of less in savings each year. Almost 1/3 of Canadian households already rent. Canada’s birth rate is so low immigration provides almost all net population growth already. Immigrants come to Canada to live the Canadian dream promised to them of home ownership for their family and car ownership and travel. Immigrants mostly vote Liberal for their first 10 years in Canada until they become disillusioned.
If you were a liberal politician currently in power who could easily know these stats through a quick google search would you cater to the past (boomers) or the future (millennials who want to own and move up and immigrants who will replace the massive die off and lack of births in the country)? Would you want interest rates to go up and up to squish down home prices, car prices, equity prices etc. so that things could be reset where boomers are largely unaffected because they already own these things and $50000 could get a new family into a home of their own and a car that gets them to work and for travel? Millennials and immigrants can keep liberals in power for the next decade or two if the masses can be placated through affordable home ownership and having the things Canadians in the past (boomers) were used to having which has been the carrot at the end of the stick to draw so many immigrants to Canada. Without this carrot, immigrants won’t come and liberals will lose power. History proves the truth is that power hungry people rise to the top (politics) and will do anything to keep power. 50% or more correction (reset) of home prices etc. could easily play out if the stats provided through google searches are correct. A big reset could be in order.
Why doesn't the bank of Canada just print all money owned as an interest free loan to the Canadian government like its says they can do on their website? Wasn't this the whole point for the creation of the bank of Canada? That would be much easier to pay back compared to our current compounding interest debt which is printed money and loaned by private banks.
job losses need to happen before foreclosures start and that is still a slow process. If broadbased job losses start in and after the first quarter the we may be looking at the start of summer when inventories really start rising at faster than normal seasonally adjusted averages. As long as the Public Sector continues to hire, or at least not downsize thier workforce, then the unemployment levels in cities that are a high percent of Civilian Employees will be more stable than those cities that are primarily Private Sector Employed.
I manage software development at a large international company. Over the last year we were hiring like crazy and promoting people so they wont get poached. Now we are letting go contractors, all promotions and raises on hold, projects and budgets being cut. Whatever people keep saying is coming...has actually already started. The data will only start to reflect later. This is why people never know how bad things are until its already bad. Could say more but I will just leave it there
@@sugadre123 before the start of most recession unemployment is at low as the economy squeezes every last drop it can. Generally in other downturns about 1-2 years before the firing would start large Companies would pay out a number of Middle Management positions, or employees at the top range of their pay scale, so that they could bring on external hires for those Middle Management positions as well as replace high paid low rank Employees. When the downturn comes those new Managers now do the firing. Companies always cut from the bottom up. They will generally go though many rounds of cuts depending on how long the downturn is and how much stress can be put on the employee as they are now generally doing the work of multiple people. At that point Upper Management can now save money by firing the 'new hires' as they are hated by the remaining peons. You can then promote within and pay those employees at bottom of the Middle Managent scale. If the downturn goes on too long you generally see the Corporate 500 CEO shuffle where they then get paid huge bonuses and stock options for their early termination and they all switch Companies and often completely different Industries.
I don't know if people are ignorant or they are being misled to believe that house prices/stocks rally once fed stops hiking. But history shows the biggest drops come after the Fed has cut the rates.
39:00> A fiat was created to fuel negative addictive behaviour = imupulsive buys. MArkets are like consumers> delve into impulsive buying, through negative attidudes that fuel it> buyers remorse from too much credit (fiat).
Negative equity would be when an investment you own is worth less today than when you bought it. Generally in reference to a mortgage they are saying the value of the home is currently worth less than the balance of the mortgage outstanding. Your Loan To Value is the current balance of your mortgage divided by the current value of your home. $75,000 mortgage/$100,000 value=0.75 or 75% LTV. $100,000 mortgage/$75,000 value=1.33 or 133% LTV. (or you could also say you have $25,000 negative equity)
Hey Steve, is that actually an accurate statement, that "1/3 of Canadians own their home outright"...? Or, is it that 1/3 of homeowners have paid off their mortgage, leaving 2/3 of homeowners with a mortgage...? Would it be more accurate to state " homeowners " instead of " Canadians "...?
Rich can't fathom sentiment getting worse because he just "feels" differently about it all. Who's paying for consulting calls with this guy 🤣😂 "Hey look, the RSI is low so that must mean it's time to buyyy😃😃". Rich is clueless and is incapable of synthesizing any profound macro thesis.
This is not a year that makes many financial consultants look good in front of their institutional clients, Rich is not an exception if you ask me. Institutions are handcuffed by law to the long side, how can consultants pull a slam dunk in a risk off environment when the bond market is getting absolutely Will Smithed ? Beside being long the USD... crickets. But I am not a professionnal, maybe you are. Just my opinion.
@@diasx12 "When sentiment is really really bad, there's a floor to it. Things are so shit that you can only go up." Your threshold for "things being shit" is abysmally inaccurate. Get off Twitter. "I get the feeling that a lot of this negativity is already in the price amount." You are a self-admitted optimist and believer in our institutions, your feelings won't serve you in this environment and definitely won't serve anyone following your advice. "It might catch a lot of people offside if anything at all goes right over the next 6-12 months." Seriously, what do you think could possibly be fixed over the next 6-12 months? A couple of rosy news headlines followed by a short-term rally? Reading charts and regurgitating data points is fine...stick to that.
I don't mind Rich, he's just way too optimistic, and he's smart, so I know he knows what's going on, so he's being dishonest. If your house is on fire you need to admit it and take appropriate action, not go back to sleep. As for being a doomer, I guess we just see what's going on, and know we can't just print our way out. We are so fvcked when it comes to energy across the world it's not even funny. It's either be truthful and make correctuve action, or lie and screw the next generations.
The wisest thing that should be on every once’s mind currently should be invest indifferent streams of income that don’t depend on the govt. Especially with the current economic crisis around the world this is still a good time to invest in Gold, silver and digital currencies (BTC, ETH….)
I would advise everyone embarking on crypto investment to get a professional who will manage your account with less losses. I invest with a strategic trader assigned by a crypto company that trades for me I return my profits on weekly basis.
When i signed up for shakepay with /looniehour, shakepay doesn't send text, but does send text when no /r/looniehour referral. You should fix that. Great show guys...
Amazing video as always guys! I almost appreciate your insight as much as I appreciate being notified that a "Gerald" and "Sonia depena" have commented on my comment saying how I can make record setting gains by taking their secret 3 month program for crypto currency investing. LOL P.S. Congrats on 52 weeks straight ! 1 Year down, hopefully many more to come. Looking forward to celebrating with you in Toronto.
Kelowna has 6000 homes approved. It will take 15 - 20 years for people to build them all at the 10 year average rate of 325 homes/year. Government is not the bottleneck. Labour is the bottleneck. -infotel kelowna-has-learned-the-iceberg-lesson-of-sprawling-development 13:40 It’s impossible to get things built because of all the levels of government. -Steve
You must work in government. Kelowna is a shit show, who ever is the city planner should be fired. Building on unstable slopes, slamming condos everywhere with little attention to infrastructure. The costs alone of the government is making this prohibitive, total government cost is what , 23% of a unit? All the regulation that's brought in for "efficiency", layers and layers of paper which brings paper pushers.
@@donm2067 you're making wrong assumptions and you're not making any sense. On one hand you say they approve too much and on the other hand you say they are too prohibitive. Minister of transportation that let Kelowna cover the only highway with traffic lights should be fired.
@@firstlast4229 Nice dodge on the cost comment, you HAVE to be government. I never said they were too lax, I mentioned how ineffective at what they are trying to do, there's so many stupid mistakes with the building. All the permitting and fees is just a cash grab, don't get me wrong we have to have SOME permitting, people are lazy and stupid and left to their own devices they would build a house out of popsicle sticks. What I am saying is, there are way too many layers, and the process is nowhere near streamlined. I have no clue how they thought just putting stop lights was going to work out, a kindergarten class could have designed the city better.
One thing I think is crazy is that we have record low unemployment and yet food banks are screaming that they have all time highs in people visiting and donations drying up. It’s like people have jobs but they can’t eat.
did you mean to say record *low* unemployment?
it's probably because of wage stagnation and inflation really putting people out.
@@freezerlunik the numbers are always fudged, liars figure but real figures don't lie................Willie
I think you hit a good marker here for desperation in the economy. If people are working full time (or more) and still having to supplement with the food bank.... you have a HUGE issue.
Guys… long term watcher. This was one of your best episodes yet. Well done. Boomer, yes, great time to pivot mentally and start to get greedy. Bear markets are not great for older people. They are wonderful for young investors (who are just getting started). You get rich by buying low and selling high. Investors are getting their buy low opportunity. But will their brain ‘win out’ over their gut? Also, don’t go all in. Markets will likely go lower. So scale in. And train your brain to hope for lower price. What do you do when your favourite groceries go on sale?
👊🏼
Agreed, great post. Seems like the market is still overpriced as well. So as you said, still more downside.
Construction and Real Estate make up over 1/5th of GDP. Interest rates go up, construction stops, construction workers lose their jobs, they eat in to save money leading restaurants to lose customers, and go bankrupt. Banks suffer losses from bad loans distributed to zombie companies which lead to more employee cuts. The entire consumer sector will take a massive hit. A drop in consumer spending and a rise in interest rates will collapse stock prices due to lower revenue + the massive amount of cheap money they borrowed to buy back stock is now not so cheap. This is a cascading effect that takes time to play out.
Thanks for calling it like it is guys!
Congrats guys! Thank you so much for what you do
I've
‹Spot on ! our main focus right now should be on strategies to maneuver our current situation, lots of folks are making millions off this downmarket but such info doesn't make it to the news..
well the top players and pros have exclusive information and data trajectory that isn't disclosed to the public, knowing the strategies to apply in this time is one thing and having the right info to successfully pull it off is just another.
I agree, that's the more reason I prefer my day to day invt decisions being guided by a invt-coach, seeing that their entire skillset is built around going long and short at the same time both employing risk for its asymmetrical upside and laying off risk as a hedge against the inevitable downward turns, coupled with the exclusive information/analysis they have, it's near impossible to not out-perform, been using an invt-coach for over 2years+ and I've netted over 1.5million
@@Crazytoken908 I guess that's why the demand for investment-advisers sky-rocketed by over
41.8% since the pandemic according to investopedia , Nevertheless do recommend the advisor that aided you
I look forward to watching you guys every week!!! Cheers to a trip around the sun! 🤟🍻☀️
Congratulations on 1 year anniversary!
Thanks a lot for all the hard work! Keep it up.
Congrats on the 12m anniversary and looking forward to the TO show. 👍
Congratulations!! Guys. Been watching since episode 1. Keep pushing
Congrats on 1 year 🎉 Been here since the beginning ! Cheers to more
🙏🏻
Decades of fiscal spending going towards unproductive purposes and monetary policy that did not incentivize an expansion of the private sector's productive capacity. Discount rates are going higher and a lot will realize that present values need to reflect discounted future cash flows, based on a REASONABLE rate of return.
A nice macro picture of the times from the Loonies, enjoyed it a lot. Only thing missing maybe was some comments on the gift that keeps giving, but for how long, i.e. the printing press as seen lately in UK and Germany. Anyway happy anniversary and long life for the Loonies, enjoy your get together at Montreal's Hockey Hall of Fame in Toronto.
• Slow Sell stage
• Denial stage
• Panic stage
• Capitulation stage
• Foreclosures stage
• And finally, the Meltdown stage
Count down to Real Estate CRASH in Canada
Yep. It's still the denial stage. The calm before the shit show.
And they won't be able to pay for their 2 expensive cars they got with their home equity line of credit.
Its somewhere between your third and fifth bullet where the boc reverses course and we do it all over again in a few years time
Forgot to add in where increased immigration brings in new buyers with cash to scoop up homes….
We have very aggressive immigration targets and this isn’t illegal migration like the US southern border. Canadian immigration attracts people who are highly skilled, educated and have proof of $$$ in their accounts. They need places to live and want to buy homes. With already a shortage of housing for Canadians already here, immigration further puts in a nice floor. Keep waiting in that crash though.
@@steveshideler1333 They aren't even coming close to meeting immigration targets and Canada is experiencing the largest exodus since the 70s. Not to mention Chinas economy is diving and Chinese investors may consider offloading some Canadian investments to make up for losses back home. Also , new law January 1st on foreign ownership in Canada. Also, Canada is losing its reputation amongst the world's best and brightest. But yeah keep believing in the utopia.
As usual great content, fun and informative. I tell people about the channel all the time but it's hard to convince people to commit an hour to something they know virtually sh*t about. IMO you need to start generating "Shorts" of key bites from each episode because that 1-2min clip is what will draw people in and a heck of a lot easier to share with friends and family to get them involved. Right now I send it out and have to say "OK fast forward to 20:53, you've got to hear this"...having "Shorts" would fix that. Just a thought but again a huge thank you for the content and all the very best to the entire team.
Most sellers have no clue about macro economics. They are waiting for Spring believing that prices will rise again by then. That is the reason inventory is so low right now.
Plus they got realtors in their ear saying the same thing.
"Don't worry bro, you'll get way more in the spring, just delist".
Plus you know history ..... it tells the tail.... logic tends to go along way ...
Congrats! Yall should get a laugh track/sound board for Keith's zingers.
Lol good idea
Holy 1 year already. I started listening after 4 episodes. Thanks guys! 🍻
Wax the surfboards and ride the waves 🤙
Thanks for the support !
125 BPS minimum rate hike by end of 2022, plus a deep recession and we'll be back to 2017 prices for detached homes in Southern Ontario by end of 2023. Good luck to all the over-leveraged, negative cash flowing, and underwater speculators 🤭
interest rates are still historically very low.....Wille
Sounds pretty butt hurt. Too bad you missed out
Except I did fantastic with industrial real estate since 2012 😁
@@bonniejohnson1518 Agreed. ZIRP for a decade has created a delusional residential real estate society. Those who got greedy and overleveraged and used their home as an ATM, they're going to have an interesting decade to say the least.
I agree with Rich - the riskiest bubble is in the bond market. If rates continue going up, some bondholders are going to lose their entire capital investment. I see it as a much higher risk than equities. Increasingly high interest rates and a recession is a bad combination for bondholders. And that’s why everyone should be well diversified!
Watch this every week and still dont know what the heck.
Congratulations guys, loyal watcher here. Thank you !!
Happy Anniversary Gents! Looking forward to seeing you all on December 1st!
Thank you !
Could Keith or Rich go a bit more in depth on their thoughts about a potential bottoming in the coming “few months” ? Only curious because we haven’t really seen interest rate hikes take effect yet, also we are potentially at the start of an earnings recession, increase in unemployment which I would assume could have lasting negative effects on equities? Thanks for all your guys work, long time listener and congrats on the one year!
Prices on homes equalize on replacement value as well. Inventories may stay low with higher rates and higher prices on the materials it takes to build. I wouldn't build anything leaning into an increasing rate hike environment and a recession in view.
So if we wait another couple months we can lock in GICs around 6% for 10 years, sound like a good move to you guys if your late 30s? Also the overnight rate is traditionally 3% over prime rate, anyone know why it’s only 2.45%? Would you expect the prom rate to increase in tandem with hikes here on out?
I don’t know about 6% for 10 years…
They offered me 5.3% on 10 yrs as of now at BMO
Scotiabank stock is currently yielding over 6%. Over 10 years it will likely increase, along with the stock price. The dividend is also taxed at a lower rate than a GIC.
10 years is a bit long for 6%. The last bull market in equities returned 400%
I just went for another mortgage. No dice. Good credit, 20% down, equity in another property, no debts aside from my current property etc. 2020 earnings (COVID) held me back. Lenders are absolutely tightening.
I don't understand why the US dollar is rising if both Japan and China are selling US treasuries? Shouldn't that cause the US dollar to slide/decrease in value?
TD is absolutely not lending unsecured to people, even those with low debt and good credit.
Speak for yourself...Just got 30k unsecured @ prime +2. Longstanding TD customer, no debt
Hundreds of thousands of immigrants arriving each year. Immigrants have under $50000 on average when they arrive and take over 10 years to earn the average income for the area they settle in. Millions of the baby boomer generation have already died and this will increase drastically over the upcoming years as they have mostly retired and live off of less in savings each year. Almost 1/3 of Canadian households already rent. Canada’s birth rate is so low immigration provides almost all net population growth already. Immigrants come to Canada to live the Canadian dream promised to them of home ownership for their family and car ownership and travel. Immigrants mostly vote Liberal for their first 10 years in Canada until they become disillusioned.
If you were a liberal politician currently in power who could easily know these stats through a quick google search would you cater to the past (boomers) or the future (millennials who want to own and move up and immigrants who will replace the massive die off and lack of births in the country)? Would you want interest rates to go up and up to squish down home prices, car prices, equity prices etc. so that things could be reset where boomers are largely unaffected because they already own these things and $50000 could get a new family into a home of their own and a car that gets them to work and for travel? Millennials and immigrants can keep liberals in power for the next decade or two if the masses can be placated through affordable home ownership and having the things Canadians in the past (boomers) were used to having which has been the carrot at the end of the stick to draw so many immigrants to Canada. Without this carrot, immigrants won’t come and liberals will lose power. History proves the truth is that power hungry people rise to the top (politics) and will do anything to keep power. 50% or more correction (reset) of home prices etc. could easily play out if the stats provided through google searches are correct. A big reset could be in order.
That's the reason Truedope wants to increase the number.
Why doesn't the bank of Canada just print all money owned as an interest free loan to the Canadian government like its says they can do on their website? Wasn't this the whole point for the creation of the bank of Canada? That would be much easier to pay back compared to our current compounding interest debt which is printed money and loaned by private banks.
Please add timestamps
job losses need to happen before foreclosures start and that is still a slow process. If broadbased job losses start in and after the first quarter the we may be looking at the start of summer when inventories really start rising at faster than normal seasonally adjusted averages. As long as the Public Sector continues to hire, or at least not downsize thier workforce, then the unemployment levels in cities that are a high percent of Civilian Employees will be more stable than those cities that are primarily Private Sector Employed.
I manage software development at a large international company. Over the last year we were hiring like crazy and promoting people so they wont get poached. Now we are letting go contractors, all promotions and raises on hold, projects and budgets being cut. Whatever people keep saying is coming...has actually already started. The data will only start to reflect later. This is why people never know how bad things are until its already bad. Could say more but I will just leave it there
@@sugadre123 before the start of most recession unemployment is at low as the economy squeezes every last drop it can.
Generally in other downturns about 1-2 years before the firing would start large Companies would pay out a number of Middle Management positions, or employees at the top range of their pay scale, so that they could bring on external hires for those Middle Management positions as well as replace high paid low rank Employees. When the downturn comes those new Managers now do the firing. Companies always cut from the bottom up. They will generally go though many rounds of cuts depending on how long the downturn is and how much stress can be put on the employee as they are now generally doing the work of multiple people. At that point Upper Management can now save money by firing the 'new hires' as they are hated by the remaining peons. You can then promote within and pay those employees at bottom of the Middle Managent scale. If the downturn goes on too long you generally see the Corporate 500 CEO shuffle where they then get paid huge bonuses and stock options for their early termination and they all switch Companies and often completely different Industries.
Keith with the Twinkie and matches 😂😂💀
I don't know if people are ignorant or they are being misled to believe that house prices/stocks rally once fed stops hiking. But history shows the biggest drops come after the Fed has cut the rates.
🎉🎉🎉🎉Congratulations 1 year🎉🎉🎉🎉
Happy 52nd Birthday Steven Starsky
In Canada you don't have a 30 year fixed rate so you are going to have a worst crash than the USA
Interesting tidbit, the GFC of 2008 was caused by a mortgage default rate of 8%.
looking forward to the event!
Why do the banks/economists tell the truth in private but not publicly?
Just do a 400 point rate hike already.
Nah
I would just love that 😍
What good does that accomplish?
39:00> A fiat was created to fuel negative addictive behaviour = imupulsive buys. MArkets are like consumers> delve into impulsive buying, through negative attidudes that fuel it> buyers remorse from too much credit (fiat).
Is there a published stat on 20% of mortgages turning over every year???
Talk us through 'negative equity' and LTV so a grade 12 graduate could understand... Thank you
Negative equity would be when an investment you own is worth less today than when you bought it.
Generally in reference to a mortgage they are saying the value of the home is currently worth less than the balance of the mortgage outstanding.
Your Loan To Value is the current balance of your mortgage divided by the current value of your home.
$75,000 mortgage/$100,000 value=0.75 or 75% LTV.
$100,000 mortgage/$75,000 value=1.33 or 133% LTV. (or you could also say you have $25,000 negative equity)
Congratulations you guys 👏👏
I invested in TLT and I'm down 36%. How can a German bond denominated in EUR be down less?
Maybe because the ECB has not hiked rates as much as the FED.
Shake pay... how to insult Boomers.
helocs must be nearing 😅10%
Yeah those living on debt will be in pain for the next few years minimum
it doesn't matter to them. they'll pay HELOC minimum payments with credit card cash advances. once they are maxed out the trouble will begin
The Fonz..."ehhhhh" ❤
I think we might be fucked.
I think we already are.
The Japanese are fine for awhile yet aren't they, because of their FX Reserves?
Hey Steve, is that actually an accurate statement, that "1/3 of Canadians own their home outright"...? Or, is it that 1/3 of homeowners have paid off their mortgage, leaving 2/3 of homeowners with a mortgage...? Would it be more accurate to state " homeowners " instead of " Canadians "...?
One third of homeowners do not have a mortgage on their primary residence.
@@saretsky Thx, yeah that sounds more realistic 😉
@@saretsky does that mean that 2 thirds do have a mortgage?
Nice!! HOF Dec 2022!!
Rich can't fathom sentiment getting worse because he just "feels" differently about it all. Who's paying for consulting calls with this guy 🤣😂
"Hey look, the RSI is low so that must mean it's time to buyyy😃😃". Rich is clueless and is incapable of synthesizing any profound macro thesis.
This is not a year that makes many financial consultants look good in front of their institutional clients, Rich is not an exception if you ask me. Institutions are handcuffed by law to the long side, how can consultants pull a slam dunk in a risk off environment when the bond market is getting absolutely Will Smithed ? Beside being long the USD... crickets. But I am not a professionnal, maybe you are. Just my opinion.
Blackberry, worldcom and Enron are all down, they are totally due!
Listen to what I actually said, not what you think I said
@@diasx12 "When sentiment is really really bad, there's a floor to it. Things are so shit that you can only go up."
Your threshold for "things being shit" is abysmally inaccurate. Get off Twitter.
"I get the feeling that a lot of this negativity is already in the price amount."
You are a self-admitted optimist and believer in our institutions, your feelings won't serve you in this environment and definitely won't serve anyone following your advice.
"It might catch a lot of people offside if anything at all goes right over the next 6-12 months."
Seriously, what do you think could possibly be fixed over the next 6-12 months? A couple of rosy news headlines followed by a short-term rally?
Reading charts and regurgitating data points is fine...stick to that.
I don't mind Rich, he's just way too optimistic, and he's smart, so I know he knows what's going on, so he's being dishonest. If your house is on fire you need to admit it and take appropriate action, not go back to sleep.
As for being a doomer, I guess we just see what's going on, and know we can't just print our way out.
We are so fvcked when it comes to energy across the world it's not even funny. It's either be truthful and make correctuve action, or lie and screw the next generations.
The wisest thing that should be on every once’s mind currently should be invest indifferent streams of income that don’t depend on the govt. Especially with the current economic crisis around the world this is still a good time to invest in Gold, silver and digital currencies (BTC, ETH….)
I would advise everyone embarking on crypto investment to get a professional who will manage your account with less losses. I invest with a strategic trader assigned by a crypto company that trades for me I return my profits on weekly basis.
Mrs Isabella is a strategic trader who manage my account she's really a professional.
As a beginner the best you can do for yourself is to get a professional that will handle your account and minimize lost to its nearest rate.
Am astonished, I think I'm the only one familiar with Mrs Isabella she handles my account too.
Mrs Isabella has really helped my life and entire family during last year May the good Lord inspire you more 🙏🏻🙏🏻🙏🏻🙏🏻🙏🏻🙏🏻.
Russia might just nuke the whole thing
first
you mean first to suck.
When i signed up for shakepay with /looniehour, shakepay doesn't send text, but does send text when no /r/looniehour referral. You should fix that.
Great show guys...
Hey Steve, i signed up to Shakepay using your link and the referral bonus is only $10 and not $30
Agh I know they changed it a couple weeks ago I need to edit the ad sorry.
@@saretsky Looks like there's a Class Action Lawsuit against ShakePay...
SOFT LANDING
ITS LIKE LANDING A 747 IN A WALLMART PARKING LOT
LOL!!!!!!!!
Amazing video as always guys! I almost appreciate your insight as much as I appreciate being notified that a "Gerald" and "Sonia depena" have commented on my comment saying how I can make record setting gains by taking their secret 3 month program for crypto currency investing. LOL
P.S. Congrats on 52 weeks straight ! 1 Year down, hopefully many more to come. Looking forward to celebrating with you in Toronto.
Sounds like Mrs Isabella is up n coming now 😉
Kelowna has 6000 homes approved. It will take 15 - 20 years for people to build them all at the 10 year average rate of 325 homes/year. Government is not the bottleneck. Labour is the bottleneck.
-infotel kelowna-has-learned-the-iceberg-lesson-of-sprawling-development
13:40 It’s impossible to get things built because of all the levels of government.
-Steve
You must work in government.
Kelowna is a shit show, who ever is the city planner should be fired.
Building on unstable slopes, slamming condos everywhere with little attention to infrastructure.
The costs alone of the government is making this prohibitive, total government cost is what , 23% of a unit?
All the regulation that's brought in for "efficiency", layers and layers of paper which brings paper pushers.
@@donm2067 you're making wrong assumptions and you're not making any sense. On one hand you say they approve too much and on the other hand you say they are too prohibitive. Minister of transportation that let Kelowna cover the only highway with traffic lights should be fired.
@@firstlast4229 Nice dodge on the cost comment, you HAVE to be government.
I never said they were too lax, I mentioned how ineffective at what they are trying to do, there's so many stupid mistakes with the building. All the permitting and fees is just a cash grab, don't get me wrong we have to have SOME permitting, people are lazy and stupid and left to their own devices they would build a house out of popsicle sticks.
What I am saying is, there are way too many layers, and the process is nowhere near streamlined.
I have no clue how they thought just putting stop lights was going to work out, a kindergarten class could have designed the city better.
@@donm2067 Your repetitive and wildly inaccurate assumption makes it seem as though you have been "left to your own devices".
@@firstlast4229 I have been, that's why I've seen the garbage that's happening.
Not my fault you can't handle the truth.